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Kaldor, a student of Allyn Young, made much of Verdoorn’s Law but the evidence for this ‘law’ is at best mixed. Verdoorn himself in his 1980 Economic Journal paper made it clear that his law did not have as general a validity as he had earlier believed. Evidence suggests that it is possible for agricultural productivity to grow many times faster than that in manufacturing, as in the US during 1947-84. Also, Young (1928) himself did not regard the law of diminishing returns as useful for prophesying the prospects of agriculture as the agricultural fields of newer lands had been brought closer to the older world through revolution in transportation and technical change in agriculture. Moreover, the logic of Verdoorn’s Law of favouring manufacturing at the cost of other sectors distorts intersectoral relationships, leads to adverse terms of trade for agriculture, and is likely to pose a demand constraint for industry itself. To undo one wrong (i.e., protection to industry), one has to match it with other wrongs like price support and marketing board in agriculture, and dual exchange rates to promote exports. The whole economic system becomes an intricate maze with adverse consequences for growth and productivity for the whole economy.

Resumen Este escrito presenta un trabajo inédito de 1970 del distinguido economista del desarrollo Lauchlin Currie (1902-1993) sobre el famoso artículo de 1944 acerca del "Gran Impulso" de Paul Rosenstein-Rodan, que llevó al debate del crecimiento balanceado y desbalanceado en el que Albert Hirschman (1915 - 2012) fue un partícipe importante. Tanto Currie como Hirschman fueron asesores económicos del gobierno colombiano y aquí se contrastan sus respectivos puntos de vista sobre la planeación del desarrollo. En particular, se muestra que el artículo de Currie de 1970 esclarece la teoría que sirve de base al Plan Nacional 1971-1974 de Colombia, que él diseñó y ayudó a ejecutar, y cuyas innovaciones institucionales han tenido un impacto duradero en la historia económica reciente de Colombia. JEL: E10, E14, E16. Abstract This paper introduces an unpublished 1970 work written by the distinguished development economist Lauchlin Currie (1902-93) on Paul Rosenstein Rodan's famous 1944 essay on the "Big Push" which led to the debate on balanced and unbalanced growth in which Albert Hirschman (1915-2012) was an important contributor. Both Currie and Hirschman had been key economic advisers to the Colombian government and here their respective views on development planning are contrasted. In particular, it is shown how Currie's 1970 paper clarifies the theory that serves as the basis for Colombia's 1971-74 National Plan, which he designed and helped execute, and whose institutional innovations have had a lasting impact on Colombia's recent economic history. JEL: E10, E14, E16. Resumo Este texto apresenta um trabalho inédito de 1970 do reconhecido economista do desenvolvimento Lauchlin Currie (1902-1993) sobre o famoso artigo de 1944 referente ao "Grande Impulso" de Paul Rosenstein-Rodan, que levou ao debate do crescimento balanceado e desbalanceado no que Albert Hirschman (1915-2012) foi um partícipe importante. Tanto Currie quanto Hirschman foram assessores econômicos do governo colombiano, e aqui se contrastam seus respectivos pontos de vista sobre o planejamento do desenvolvimento. Em particular, mostra-se que o artigo de Currie de 1970 esclarece a teoria que serve de base para o Plano Nacional 1971-1974 da Colômbia, que ele desenhou e ajudou a executar e cujas inovações institucionais têm tido um impacto duradouro na história econômica recente da Colômbia. JEL: E14, E10, E16.

This paper introduces a hitherto unpublished 1970 paper written by the distinguished development economist Lauchlin Currie (1902-93) on Paul Rosenstein Rodan’s famous 1943 paper on the “Big Push” which led to the balanced-unbalanced growth debate to which Albert Hirschman (1915-2012) was an important contributor. Both Currie and Hirschman had been key economic advisers to the Colombian government and their respective views on development planning are contrasted. In particular, it is shown how Currie’s 1970 paper illuminates the theory behind the 1971-74 national plan for Colombia that he prepared and helped deliver; and how the related institutional innovations have had an enduring impact on Colombia’s recent economic history.

This book categorizes globalization into three types: Financial Globalization, the collapse of the Cold War order and the ensuing convergence toward the capitalistic system; and the rise of the emerging nations. The globalization of capitalism has two implications. One is trust in the market economy system and support for a minimal state while another is an aspect of the Casino Capitalism as typically seen by the rampant emergence of hedge funds. This book explores both the light and shadows cast by globalization, endeavoring to identify both positive and problematic effects of the globalization process on the world economy. For this purpose we would first examine the nature and the feature of the world capitalism in relation to globalization. Then we would discuss and investigate the path along which important nations - first the developed nations (the USA, EU and Japan), followed by the emerging nations (BRICs) - have proceeded under the influence of globalization. Focusing on this phenomenon from diverse points of view, which is to be taken by the first-rank contributors in their fields, will be extraordinarily fruitful for understanding not only the world capitalism.

This paper addresses the challenges facing China in accelerating the pace of rural-urban migration as part of its on-going economic development programme. It explains the push and pull influences on migration and in particular explains why a continuing focus on urbanisation is justified by the very large gap between rural and urban incomes and the relatively higher income elasticity of demand for urban-based goods and services. The provision of affordable housing is an integral part of this structural shift programme. The paper thus considers the most appropriate ways in which housing finance can be mobilised, and thence how both the quality and the affordability of the housing stock can be increased. Positive and negative lessons for China are offered from the different urbanisation experiences of Latin America (especially Colombia) and Singapore.

James Ahiakpor's critique of our 2002 work on the relationship between a certain 1932 Harvard Memorandum on anti-depression policies and the 1932 Harris Foundation Manifesto dealing with the same issues misses the significance of these documents, and of the relationships between them, both for the literature of the time, and for later debates about the origins of 1930s Chicago ideas about monetary economics. He is correct to locate these documents in a more general quantity theoretic tradition, but his discussion here is marred by a serious misunderstanding of the so-called forced saving doctrine and its place in that tradition. Finally, Ahiakpor fails to appreciate that the absence of positive policy proposals from the 1934 Harvard studies of The Economics of the Recovery Program, a point which he himself notes, is a major contributing factor to that book's mediocrity.

This paper outlines the ideas of Ralph Hawtrey and Lauchlin Currie on the need for monetised fiscal deficit spending in 1930s USA to combat the deep depression into which the economy had been allowed to sink. In such exceptional circumstances of 'credit deadlock' in which banks were afraid to lend and households and business afraid to borrow, the deadlock could best be broken through the spending of new money into circulation via large fiscal deficits. This complementarity of fiscal and monetary policy was shown to be essential, and as such indicates the potential power of monetary policy - in contrast to the Keynesian "liquidity trap" view that it is powerless This lesson was not learned by the Japanese authorities in their response to the asset price collapse of 1991-92, resulting in a lost decade as ballooning fiscal deficits were neutralised throughout the 1990s by unhelpfully tight monetary policy with the Bank of Japan refusing to monetise the deficits.

This paper evaluates, from an Allyn Youngian perspective, the neoclassical Solow model of growth and the associated empirical estimates of the sources of growth based on it. It attempts to clarify Young's particular concept of generalised or macroeconomic "increasing returns" to show the limitations of a model of growth based on an assumption that the aggregate production function is characterised by constant returns to scale but "augmented" by exogenous technical progress. Young's concept of endogenous, self-sustaining growth is also shown to differ in important respects (including in its policy implications) from modern endogenous growth theory.

Examining the problems for post-communist countries in the context of the European Union. This paper focuses on China and the role of rural-urban migration in economic development under capitalism. The economic relationships between the urban and rural areas of a less developed economy encompass the terms of trade between rural and urban products, the intersectoral transfer of labour, the relative wages of labour in the two sectors, the intersectoral transfer of saving, the relative sectoral returns to investment, the relative sectoral contributions to tax revenue and benefits from public expenditure, and the extent to which government policies favour one sector over the other. There are at least three theoretical frameworks for the analysis of these relationships: the Lewis model of eco­nomic growth with surplus rural labour, the 'coercive', or 'price-scissors', model of economic growth financed by extracting a rural surplus, and the notion that economic policy is subject to 'urban bias'.

The construction sector is an indispensable element in the labour mobility mechanism. This promotes not only faster growth but also better distribution. In Colombia there is still a great imbalance in the allocation of labour, notably between low-paying agriculture and high-paying urban activities. And in cities like Bogota there is urgent need for better balance between where people live and where they work, and for an improvement in the quality of the housing needed and/or demanded by all income groups. All this was covered by Currie in his work on 'taming the megalopolis' through the 'cities-within-cities' approach to urban planning, and in answering the question: 'For whom should houses be built?'

This paper reproduces two public lectures given at an Incolda conference in Bogota, October 1, 2002 on " La Realidad de la Economía Colombiana ". It reviews the great structural changes in output and employment over recent decades and how macroeconomic policies can strengthen or weaken the natural forces underlying these changes. It distinguishes between potentially inflationary policies designed to increase demand in a monetary sense, and those that focus on institutional changes that enhance competition and mobility. It explains how inflation distorts the allocation of resources, and why it especially harms long-term housing finance and exports. It explains the logic of Lauchlin Currie´s leading sector theory of growth and shows why and how housing and exports can be given special protection to accelerate development.

Members of the present Government, including Mrs Thatcher, have in the past expressed their determination to scrap the present system of local rates. This determination appeared to be strengthened earlier in the year by the political storm that blew up over the rates revaluation in Scotland. Revaluation in Scotland had already been delayed two years beyond the normal statutory 5-year period and the delay only served to make an even larger jump in rateable values inevitable. The storm was the greater because the last revaluation in England and Wales was in 1973. This economic perspective reviews the present rating system and considers the alternatives which have been proposed by Government.

Mrs Thatcher first promised to scrap the domestic rating system in 1974 when she became leader of the Conservative Party. Since then the Layfield Commission in 1976, the Green Paper Alternatives to Domestic Rates in 1981 and a 1983 White Paper have all rejected any radical change to the domestic rating system. In particular, the local income tax, local sales tax and local poll tax alternatives were rejected as either unworkable, too costly, or too regressive. The latest Green Paper contains two main proposals. The first is to move towards the abolition of domestic rating in favour of a uniform "community charge" on all adults resident in a particular local authority. Secondly, local authorities would be deprived of the power to set local non-domestic (business) rates. At present the rate poundage varies widely throughout Britain (though less so in Scotland), reflecting differences in local authority spending per capita. Instead, central government would fix a uniform business rate poundage according to central government's view on national expenditure targets. Local authorities would collect business rates as at present, but transfer these to a central pool. These will then be redistributed to local authorities on a uniform per capita grant basis. This economic perspective will explore the viability of the new proposals.