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Climate change and ocean acidification are anticipated to alter marine ecosystems, with consequences for the provision of marine resources and ecosystem services to human societies. However, considerable uncertainties about future ecological changes and ensuing socio-economic impacts impede the identification of societal adaptation strategies. In a case study from the Barents Sea and Northern Norwegian Sea region, we integrated stakeholder perceptions of ecological changes and their significance for societies with the current state of scientific knowledge, to investigate the marine-human system under climate change and identify societal adaptation options. Stakeholders were engaged through personal interviews, two local workshops, and a web based survey, identifying the most relevant ecosystem services potentially impacted and developing an integrated system dynamics model which links climate change scenarios to the response of relevant species. Stakeholder perceptions of temperature-dependent multiannual fluctuations of fish stocks, interactions among fish, marine mammal, and seabird populations, and ecological processes such as primary production are represented in the model. The model was used for a discourse-based stakeholder evaluation of potential ecosystem changes under ocean warming and acidification scenarios, identifying shifts in ecosystem service provision and discussing associated societal adaptation options. The results pointed to differences in adaptive capacity among user groups. Small-scale fishers and tourism businesses are potentially more affected by changing spatial distribution and local declines in marine species than industrial fisheries. Changes in biodiversity, especially extinctions of polar species, and ecosystem functioning were a concern from an environmental conservation viewpoint. When considering potential additional impacts of ocean acidification, changes observed in the model projections were more uniformly valued as negative, and associated with an increased potential for conflicts among user groups. The stakeholder-informed ecosystem modeling approach has succeeded in driving a discussion and interchange among stakeholder groups and with scientists, integrating knowledge about climate change impacts in the social-ecological system and identifying important factors that shape societal responses. The approach can thus serve to improve governance of marine systems by incorporating knowledge about system dynamics and about societal uses and values.

"The laws of thermodynamics constrain transformation of materials and energy, and thus have implications for material and energy use in the economy, for environmental impact, and for policy. This paper provides an overview over the applications of concepts from thermodynamics in economics at the level of individual processes and explores potential constraints at larger system levels - the economy as a whole and the ecosystems within which economies are embedded. Specific emphasis is placed on the ways in which insights from thermodynamics are used to inform economic and policy decision making." (author's abstract)

Increases in urban populations, aging infrastructures and global environmental change have begun to highlight the need and urgency to address urban resilience through research and stakeholder-based dialog. The number of case studies for individual locations and on individual challenges – such as meeting water or energy demands – are increasing. Many of those studies reveal the complexity of managing interrelations among population, infrastructure, and institutions, though many ultimately choose a narrow, sector-specific approach to the issue. Few approaches have built on insights from complexity theory and related bodies of knowledge which are more consistent with the perspective that urban infrastructure systems are tightly coupled with one another and must respond to often subtle, long-term changes of technological, social and environmental conditions. Drawing on that knowledge, and building on insights from previous case studies, this paper explores the potential roles of complexity theory in guiding investment and policy decisions in the urban context, focusing on strategies to promote resilience and adaptability in the light of population, infrastructure, and institutional dynamics. 136

This paper is based on the premise that without integration of knowledge across disciplines, without integration of research with education, and without dialogue between science and stakeholders, opportunities to bound the complexity of environmental processes will be missed. Without adequate integration, solutions to environmental challenges will be partial at best, and new problems and unintended impacts will likely arise that prevent natural resource, economic and social systems from flourishing. On that premise, the paper explores what specifically needs to be integrated, and why, how that integration may occur, and what emotive, social and institutional conditions need to be achieved that may foster integration. 135

Infrastructure systems and services (ISS) are vulnerable to changes in climate. This paper reports on a study of the impact of gradual climate changes on ISS in Hamilton City, New Zealand. This study is unique in that it is the first of its kind to be applied to New Zealand ISS. This study also considers a broader range of ISS than most other climate change studies recently conducted. Using historical climate data and four climate change scenarios, we modelled the impact of climate change on water supply and quality, transport, energy demand, public health and air quality. Our analysis reveals that many of Hamilton City's infrastructure sectors demonstrated greater responsiveness to population changes than changes in gradual climate change. Any future planning decisions should be sensitive to climate change, but not driven by it (even though that may be fashionable to do so). We find there is considerable scope for extending this analysis. First, there is a need for local infrastructure managers to improve the coverage of the data needed for this kind of study. Second, any future study of this kind must focus on daily (rather than monthly) time steps and extreme (as well as gradual) climate changes.

Much of the infrastructure in use today was designed and constructed decades if not centuries ago. Many of these infrastructure systems are vulnerable to a variety of anthropogenic or natural disruptions even though their functioning is vital to the creation and maintenance of quality of life in a region. Moreover, concepts and designs have persisted even as technologies have changed. Yet the demands and technologies of the future may require infrastructures - both material facilities and human institutions - that are radically different from those of the present. Dealing appropriately with immediate infrastructure vulnerabilities and infrastructure evolution requires a combination of effective short-term crisis management and anticipatory, strategic thinking and planning. Both the "material nature" and institutional issues surrounding urban infrastructure in a changing environment pose formidable challenges to efforts by industrial ecologists to improve the sustainability of urban areas. This presentation describes a collaborative study carried out over the course of more than three years by a group of scientists from engineering, policy analysis, geography and public health, together with a local planning agency and over 200 stakeholders from the public, private and non-profit sectors in metropolitan Boston. The research was conducted as part of the CLIMB project, which explores Climate's Long-term Impacts on Metro Boston. Special focus was given to vulnerabilities and dynamics of urban infrastructures for energy, communication, transportation, water run-off, and water quality, as well as the interrelatedness of these systems, and implications for public health. Computer-based scenarios are presented for potential future infrastructure dynamics under a variety of assumptions about changes in technology, infrastructure investment, and local climates. The presentation concludes with a set of strategies for environmental investment and policy making that are currently considered for metro Boston, and many of which are highly relevant to, and directly applicable in other locations.

The pig-cycle 'explanation' expunded by Coase and Fowler followed a well-integrated economic logic and provides tremendous insight into our understanding of commodity cycles. The paper presents a simulation model that replicates all of Coase and Fowler's results and tests its robustness with an application to U.S. hog production.