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1. The Use of Different Sepsis Risk Stratification Tools on the Wards and in Emergency Departments Uncovers Different Mortality Risks: Results of the Three Welsh National Multicenter Point-Prevalence Studies

Author

Harry J. A. Unwin, MBBCh, BSc, Maja Kopczynska, MBBCh, BSc, Richard Pugh, FRCA, Laura J. P. Tan, MBBS, BSc, Christian P. Subbe, MD, Gemma Ellis, MSc, Paul Morgan, FRCA, Peter Havalda, MD, Ben Sharif, MBBCh, John Burke, MSc, Tamas Szakmany, MD, PhD, FCCM, on behalf of Welsh Digital Data Collection Platform (WDDCP) Collaborators, Maria Hobrok, Moriah Thomas, Annie Burden, Nadia Youssef, Katherine Carnegie, Helena Colling-Sylvester, Natasha Logier, Meshari Alsaeed, Hannah Williams, Arfa Ayob, Nor Farzana, Sweta Parida, David Lawson, Emily Evans, Laura Jane Davis, Billie Atkins, Llywela Wyn Davies, Lee Sanders-Crook, Steffan Treharne Seal, Alice Cains, Richard Pugh, Katy Crisp, Sarah Venning, Ella Sykes, Stephanie Narine, Georgia Parry, Emily Angela Dillon, Qi Zhuang Siah, Ting Yang, Tyler Jones, Parvathi Thara, Emma Wood, Lara Wirt, Georgina St Pier, Richard Betts, Kyriaki Mitsaki, Mari Tachweed Pierce, Sioned Davies, Yakeen Hafouda, Erin Ifan, Grace Lacey, Francesca Mitchell, John Lynch, Michal Mazur, Lezia D’Souza, Bethan Ponting, Terrance Lau, Ruairidh Kerrigan, Lucy Morgan, Roshan Vindla, Claudia Zeicu, Becky James, Amirah Amin Ariff, Wan Binti Wan Azzlan, Charlotte Collins, Elizabeth Wickens, Alisa Norbee, Aliya Zulkefli, Thomas Haddock, Megan Thomas, Matthew Lee, Miriam Cynan, Nik-Syakirah Nik Azis, Imogen Hay, Catherine Russell, Margriet Vreugdenhil, Mustafa Abdimalik, Joseph Davies, Peter Havalda, Angharad Evans, Kate Robertson, Grace Gitau, Mei-yin Gruber, Thomas Telford, Anas Qarout, Naomi Nandra, Hannah Garrard, James Cutler, Rhiannon Tammy Jones, Amy Prideaux, Timothy Spence, Sarah Hardie, Harriet Seymour, Sam Willis, Matthew Warlow, Shanali Thanthilla, Thomas Downs, Nina Foley, Chad McKeown, Akshita Dandawate, Holleh Shayan-Arani, Ellie Taylor, Oliver Kyriakides, Rachel Price, Ffion Haf Mackey, Emily Haines, Samuel Chun, Nilarnti Vignarajah, Tessa Chamberlain, Dongying Zhao, Nayanatara Nadeesha T Tantirige, Naomi Dennehey, Georgina Evans, John Watts, Ceri Battle, Ryan Jones, Selina Jones, Charlotte James, James O’Hanlon, Isabella Bridges, Bethany Hughes, Leo Polchar, Elise Bisson, Charlotte Mykura, Lara Money, Joshua McKenna, Sarah Kinsman, Demiana Hanna, Emily Baker, Harrison Sprague, Liam Sharma, Tom Pontin, Emma Shore, Tamara Hughes, Sam Nightingale, Philby Baby, Matthew Shield, Alice Cross, Jenna Boss, Olivia Ross, George Ashton, Kimaya Pandit, Daniel Davies, Cameron Garbutt, Charlotte Johnston, Marcus Cox, Chantal Roberts, Alessia Waller, Laura Heekin, Kathy Wang, Rhianna Church, Shrina Patel, Marianne Broderick, Hannah Whillis, Daniel Craig Hathaway, Emel Yildirim, Caitlin Atkins, Elin Walters, Carys Durie, Robert James Hamilton Sinnerton, Benjamin Tanner, Julimar Abreu, Kiran Bashir, Vincent Hamlyn, Amelia Tee, Zoe Ann Hinchcliffe, Rita Otto, Georgie Covell, Megan Stone, Victoria Maidman, Katherine Godfray, Rhidian Caradine, Hannah Beetham, Adanna Nicole Anomneze-Collins, Jeanette Tan, Yasmina Abdelrazik, Azizah Khan, Nabihah Malik, Aidan Clack, Lewis Oliva, Tyler Thomas, Adam George Mounce, Anoopama Ramjeeawon, Ndaba Mtunzi, Duncan Soppitt, Jay Hale, Jack Wellington, Robert Buchanan Ross, Danielle Lis, Rebecca Parsonson, Jude Joseph-Gubra, Ajitha Arunthavarajah, Jessica Nicholas, Aaron Harris, Henry Atkinson, Jessica Webster, Tim Burnett, Josephine Raffan Gowar, Sam DeFriend, Jasmine Whitaker, Elizabeth Beasant, Luis Macchiavello, Danyal Usman, Abdullah Mahdi, Tiffany Ye Tze Shan, Nick Savill, Jennifer Gee, Lizzie Hodges, Ami Desai, Hannah Rossiter, Matthew Taylor, Kevin Pinto, Eleanor Hartley, Oscar Emanuel, Rhiannon Long, Megan Selby, Elilis Wardle, Alexandra Urquhart, Jack Barrington, Matthew Ashman, Elizabeth Adcock, Amelia Dickinson, Rebecca Jordache, Rym Chafai El Alaoui, Sophie Stovold, Sam Vickery, Nia Jones, Alice O’Donnell, Monty Cuthbert, Osa Eghosa, Muhammad Karim, Lowri Williams, Louise Tucker, Tom Downs, Rebecca Walford, Annabelle Hook, Adam Mounce, Emily Eccles, Ross Edwards, Kirtika Ramesh, Charlie Hall, Maria Lazarou, Rhidian Jones, Katy McGillian, Hari Singh Bhachoo, Zoe The, Vithusha Inpahas, Ruchi Desai, Yusuf Cheema, Andrew Hughes, Olivia Cranage, Felicity Bee, Khalid Osman, Humza Khan, Jennifer Pitt, Charlotte Pickwick, Jorge Carter, Fiona Andrew, Naseera Seedat, Roshni Patel, Megan Walker, Alicia Boam, Jessica Randall, Beth Bowyer, Josh Edwards, Natasha Jones, Emma Walker, Ailsa MacNaught, Swagath Balachandran, Abbie Shipley, Jennifer Louise Kent, Samuel Tilley, Bethany Davies, Emma Withers, Krishna Parmar, Lucie Webber, Angelica Sharma, Amy Handley, Alexandra Gordon, Lucy Allen, Rebecca Paddock, Harriet Penney, Lopa Banerjee, Chloe Victoria Vanderpump, Kate Harding, John Burke, Orsolya Minik, Nia Jarrett, Ellie Rowe, Adanna Anomneze-Collins, Harry Griffiths, Sarah Pengelly, Ffion Bennett, Ahmed Bilal, Abdullah El-badawey, Bethan Ellis, Luke Cook, Harriet Elizabeth Valentine Maine, Kiri Armstrong, Hannah Beresford, Timia Raven-Gregg, Tom Liddell-Lowe, Caitlin Ong, Harriet Reed, Frederika Alice St John, Weronika Julia Kozuch, Isabelle Ray, Irukshi Anuprabha Silva, Sin Ting Natalie Cheng, Umme-Laila Ali, Noreena Syed, Luke Murphy, Thomas Grother, Harry Smith, Rachel Watson, Omar Marei, Emma Kirby, Anna Gilfedder, Lydia Maw, Sarah O’Connor, Charlotte Maden, Helena Jones, Hazel Preston, Nur Amirah Binti Maliki, Mark Zimmerman, Jessica Webber, Llewelyn Jones, Rebecca Phillips, Lauren McCarthy, Emily Hubbard, Leo Duffy, Abigail Guerrier Sadler, Tamas Szakmany, Owen Richards, Charles King, Charlotte Killick, Yusuf Chema, Kavita Shergill, Yi Huen, Lillian Lau, Hannah Mustafa Ali, Lucas Wilcock, Molly Timlin, Ayeesha Rela, Daniel Smith, Sarah Ireland, Jennifer Evans, Nayanatara Poobalan, Jessica Pearce, Thivya V Vadiveloo, Zoe Black, Daniel Elis Samuel, Humaira Hussain, Joanna Hawkins, Zeid Atiyah, Rebecca Creamer, Maham Zafar, Ahmad Almazeedi, Hannah Brunnock, Zain Nasser, Mekha Jeyanthi, Poorya Moghbel, Katie Kwan, Isobel Sutherland, Frank Davis, Abigail Rogers, Zhao Xuan Tan, Clare Chantrill, Amal Robertson, Jonathan Foulkes, Rahana Khanam, Jomcy John, Sarah Hannah Meehan, Huria Metezai, Hannah Dawson, Navrhinaa Vadivale, Camilla Lee, Amrit Dhadda, Sian Cleaver, Genna Logue, Joy Inns, Isabel Jones, Robyn Howcroft, Carys Gilbert, Matthew Bradley, Louise Pike, Rachel Keeling, Charldré Banks, Eleanor Cochrane, James McFadyen, Matthew Mo, Emily Ireland, Esme Brittain, Ihssen Laid, Charlotte Green, Adriel Mcforrester, Xuong Michelle Ly, Mariana Nalbanti, Raven Joseph, Jack Tagg, David Purchase, Pan Myat, Ayako Niina, Tyler Joshua Jones, Lowri Hughes Thomas, Natalie Hoyle, Patrick Benc, Ellen Davies, Meng-Chieh Wu, David Fellows, Sam Tilley, Eloise Baxendale, Karishma Khan, Andrew Forrester, Oliver Moore, Hse Juinn Lim, Aimee Owen, Faris Hussain, Nima-banu Allybocus, Maneha Sethi, Harry Waring, Adeel Khan, Claire Smith, Nicholas Doyle, Mohammad Yahya Amjad, Luke Galloway, Paul Morgan, Gemma Ellis, Robert Lundin, Haamed Al Hassan, Bethan Markall, Namratha Kaur, Emmanuel Onyango, Heather Beard, Elliot Field, Ellen Nelson-Rowe, Lizzie Adcock, Amelia Stoddart, Frederika St John, Mathoorika Sivananthan, Rhys Jones, Sung Yeon Kwak, Lily Farakish, Holly Rhys-Ellis, Kate Moss, Tallulah Ray, Tessa David, Talea Roberts, Annie Quy, Aniket Paranjape, Nutchanun Poolworaluk, Mary Keast, Si Liang Yao, Dion Manning, Isobel Irwin, Umair Asim, Emelia Boggon, Ibrahim Alkurd, Genevieve Lawerece, Jade Brown, Emily Murphy, Evie Lambert, Jeremy Guilford, Beth Payne, Mariam Almulaifi, Arwel Poacher, Sashiananthan Ganesananthan, Berenice Cunningham-Walker, Chloe Spooner, Akanksha Kiran, Nabeegh Nadeem, Vidhi Unadkat, Esme Sparey, David Li, Jessica Smith, India Corrin, Amit Kurani, Paul McNulty, Ceri Brown, Wojciech Groblewski, Szilvia Szoke, Amelia Redman, Esther McKeag, Anastasia Donnir, Gaautham Ravishangar, Emanuela Howard, Charlotte Salmon, Sara Tanatova, Jasmine Kew, Megan Eilis Clark, Ellen Hannay, Olesya Godsafe, Christina Houghton, Francesca Lavric, Rachel Mallinson, Chris Littler, Harsha Reddy, Andrew Campbell, Benedict Soo, Rachel Evans, Georgina Donowho, Alexandra Cawthra, Maddison Davies, Matthew Lawrence Ashman, Jamie Scriven, James Vautrey, Shannon Seet, Imogen Britton, Abigail Hodgson, Emma Twohey, Joseph Robbins, Vanessa Yeo Yung Ling, Kimiya Asjadi, Carven Chin Yee Shean, Zoe McCarroll, Oritseweyimi Amatotsero, Hei Man Priscilla Chan, John Ng Cho Hui, Antonia Ashaye, Josephine Acheampong, Ayowade Adeleye, Saber Ahmed, Alexandra Chrysostomou, Harry Unwin, Eshen Ang, Niamh McSwiney, Yin Yin Lim, Zong Xuan Lee, Svetlana Kulikouskaya, Nur Zulkifili, Sheryl Lim, Lim Xin, Adiya Urazbayeva, Nur Haslina Ahmad Hanif, Yau Ke Ying, Alice Coleclough, Eilis Higgins, Naomi Spencer, Tze Gee Ng, Sam Booth, Stephanie Wai Yee Ng, Christian P Subbe, Isabella Patterson, Wen Li Chia, Abdullah Mukit, Hei Yi Vivian Pak, Felicity Lock, Mariana Nalmpanti, Shôn Alun Thomas, Tanisha Burgher, Alfred Wei Zhen Yeo, Siwan Powell Jones, Charlie Miles, Millicent Perry, Holly Burton, Katharine Powell, Luthfun Nessa, Aalaa Fadlalla, Rhian Morgan, Elizabeth Hodges, Amelia Heal, Chloe Scott, Alice Tayler, Thomas Chandy, Abduahad Taufik, James Cochrane, Samuel Willis, Sieh Yen Heng, Alex Cooper, Henrik Graf von der Pahlen, Isabella Talbot, Robin Gwyn Roberts, Jessica Sharma Smith, Aisling Sweeney, Cerian Roberts, Laura Bausor, Chania, Daniah Thomas, Elen Wyn Puw, Ronan A Lyons, and Judith E Hall

Subjects
Medical emergencies. Critical care. Intensive care. First aid, RC86-88.9
Abstract

OBJECTIVES:. To compare the performance of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, Red Flag Sepsis, and National Institute of Clinical Excellence sepsis risk stratification tools in the identification of patients at greatest risk of mortality from sepsis in nonintensive care environments. DESIGN:. Secondary analysis of three annual 24-hour point-prevalence study periods. SETTING:. The general wards and emergency departments of 14 acute hospitals across Wales. Studies were conducted on the third Wednesday of October in 2017, 2018, and 2019. PATIENTS:. We screened all patients presenting to the emergency department and on the general wards. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:. We recruited 1,271 patients, of which 724 (56.9%) had systemic inflammatory response syndrome greater than or equal to 2, 679 (53.4%) had Sequential Organ Failure Assessment greater than or equal to 2, and 977 (76.9%) had Red Flag Sepsis. When stratified according to National Institute of Clinical Excellence guidelines, 450 patients (35.4%) were in the “High risk” category in comparison with 665 (52.3%) in “Moderate to High risk” and 156 (12.3%) in “Low risk” category. In a planned sensitivity analysis, we found that none of the tools accurately predicted mortality at 90 days, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and National Institute of Clinical Excellence tools showed only moderate discriminatory power for mortality at 7 and 14 days. Furthermore, we could not find any significant correlation with any of the tools at any of the mortality time points. CONCLUSIONS:. Our data suggest that the sepsis risk stratification tools currently utilized in emergency departments and on the general wards do not predict mortality adequately. This is illustrated by the disparity in mortality risk of the populations captured by each instrument, as well as the weak concordance between them. We propose that future studies on the development of sepsis identification tools should focus on identifying predicator values of both the short- and long-term outcomes of sepsis.

Published
2021
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2. The Utility of a Personalised Risk Calculator in Gynae-Oncology Surgery

Author

Sadie Jones, Inés Murray, Kenneth Lim, Robert Howells, Rhidian Jones, and Aarti Sharma

Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty, Average risk, business.industry, Perioperative, University hospital, Surgical risk, Colorectal surgery, Surgery, law.invention, Increased risk, Calculator, law, medicine, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Complication, business, General Environmental Science
Abstract

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the ability of the American College of Surgeons (ACS) NSQIP surgical risk calculator to accurately identify patients at increased risk of perioperative complication following surgery for gynaecological malignancy. Methods: A retrospective review of 142 patients who underwent major surgery under the gynae-oncology team between 06/08/2018-16/04/2019 at the University Hospital of Wales. Pre-operative factors combined with a procedure-specific code generated the predicted risk of 13 post-operative complications for each patient. Brier scores assessed calibration and receiver operated curves (AUC) evaluated the discriminative power of NSQIP. Results: Complications were experienced by 50/142 (35.2%) patients. The calculator displayed adequate calibration when used to predict serious complications (Brier = 0.070), readmission (Brier = 0.058), return to OR (Brier = 0.000) and UTI (Brier = 0.001). It had the greatest discriminative power when predicting the risk of serious complications (AUC = 0.672; 95% CI, 0.481-0.863). The calculator successfully identified a majority of patients who had a complication as being of ‘above average risk’ for all complications, apart from return to OR, based on their pre-operative factors. Discussion: NSQIP has previously been demonstrated to be a useful pre-operative tool for evaluating the risk of post-operative complications in colorectal surgery. This study suggests that in the setting of gynaeoncology surgery the calculator does not have adequate discriminative power to be an absolute predictor of all complications, however, it may be useful in identifying patients who are likely to develop serious complications and those at above average risk of complications.

Published
2020
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3. 215 The utility of a personalised risk calculator in gynae-oncology surgery

Author

Sadie Jones, Rhidian Jones, R. E. J. Howells, Kenneth Lim, Ines Murray, and Aarti Sharma

Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty, business.industry, Conflict of interest, Perioperative, University hospital, Surgical risk, Colorectal surgery, Surgery, law.invention, Increased risk, Calculator, law, medicine, Complication, business
Abstract

Introduction/Background The objective of this study was to examine the clinical utility of the American College of Surgeons (ACS) surgical risk calculator, developed as part of the National Surgical Quality Improvement Programme (NSQIP), in predicting perioperative morbidity in gynae-oncology patients, primarily, as a prediction model and secondly, as a tool to identify patients who are at increased risk of developing complications. Methodology A retrospective review of 142 patients who underwent major surgery under the gynae-oncology team between 06/08/2018–16/04/2019 at the University Hospital of Wales. Pre-operative factors combined with a procedure-specific code generated the predicted risk of 13 post-operative complications for each patient. Brier scores assessed calibration and receiver operated curves (AUC) evaluated the discriminative power of NSQIP. Results Complications were experienced by 35.2% (50/142) patients. The calculator displayed adequate calibration when used to predict serious complications (Brier = 0.070), readmission (Brier = 0.058), return to OR (Brier = 0.000) and UTI (Brier = 0.001). It had the greatest discriminative power when predicting the risk of serious complications (AUC = 0.672; 95% CI, 0.481–0.863). The calculator successfully identified a majority of patients who had a complication as being of ‘above average risk’ for all complications, apart from return to OR, based on their pre-operative factors. Conclusion NSQIP has previously been demonstrated to be a useful pre-operative tool for evaluating the risk of post-operative complications in colorectal surgery. This study suggests that in the setting of gynae-oncology surgery the calculator does not have adequate discriminative power to be an absolute predictor of all complications, however, it may be useful in identifying patients who are likely to develop serious complications and those at above average risk of complications. Disclosures Ines Murray – I can confirm that I have no conflict of interest with reference to this work. Kenneth Lim – I can confirm that I have no conflict of interest with reference to this work. Robert Howells – I can confirm that I have no conflict of interest with reference to this work. Rhidian Jones – I can confirm that I have no conflict of interest with reference to this work. Aarti Sharma – I can confirm that I have no conflict of interest with reference to this work. Sadie Jones - I can confirm that I have no conflict of interest with reference to this work.

Published
2020
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4. Prevalence and Outcomes of Acute Hypoxaemic Respiratory Failure in Wales: The PANDORA-WALES Study

Author

Jayne Sutherland, Rhidian Jones, Adam Hatalyak, Manish Pandey, Phillippa Jones, Jesús Villar, Richard Pugh, David George, Robert M. Kacmarek, Maja Kopczynska, Wojciech Groblewski, Ben Sharif, Igor Otahal, Ceri Lynch, Maxene Murdoch, Tamas Szakmany, and Peter Havalda

Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty, ARDS, medicine.medical_treatment, Patient demographics, lcsh:Medicine, Acute respiratory distress, survival, Article, law.invention, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, law, medicine, Prospective cohort study, Mechanical ventilation, business.industry, ventilation, lcsh:R, respiratory failure, 030208 emergency & critical care medicine, General Medicine, rescue therapies, medicine.disease, Intensive care unit, 030228 respiratory system, Respiratory failure, Emergency medicine, Breathing, business
Abstract

Background: We aimed to identify the prevalence of acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure (AHRF) in the intensive care unit (ICU) and its associated mortality. The secondary aim was to describe ventilatory management as well as the use of rescue therapies. Methods: Multi-centre prospective study in nine hospitals in Wales, UK, over 2-month periods. All patients admitted to an ICU were screened for AHRF and followed-up until discharge from the ICU. Data were collected from patient charts on patient demographics, clinical characteristics, management and outcomes. Results: Out of 2215 critical care admissions, 886 patients received mechanical ventilation. A total of 197 patients met inclusion criteria and were recruited. Seventy (35.5%) were non-survivors. Non-survivors were significantly older, had higher SOFA scores and received more vasopressor support than survivors. Twenty-five (12.7%) patients who fulfilled the Berlin definition of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) during the ICU stay without impact on overall survival. Rescue therapies were rarely used. Analysis of ventilation showed that median Vt was 7.1 mL/kg PBW (IQR 5.9–9.1) and 21.3% of patients had optimal ventilation during their ICU stay. Conclusions: One in four mechanically ventilated patients have AHRF. Despite advances of care and better, but not optimal, utilisation of low tidal volume ventilation, mortality remains high.

Published
2020

5. Treating the boxer's fracture in Wales: a postal survey

Author

Matthew Jefferies, Sadie Burdett, Abhijit R Guha, and Rhidian Jones

Subjects
Response rate (survey), medicine.medical_specialty, business.industry, medicine.medical_treatment, Boxer's fracture, Poison control, General Medicine, Boxing, Metacarpal Bones, Metacarpal bones, medicine.disease, Occupational safety and health, Orthopaedic Surgery, Casts, Surgical, Fracture Fixation, Fracture fixation, Physical therapy, Humans, Medicine, Surgery, Displacement (orthopedic surgery), business, Reduction (orthopedic surgery), Hand Disinfection
Abstract

INTRODUCTION There is no standardised treatment for fifth metacarpal neck fractures. Treatment of this common fracture can vary from immediate mobilisation to immobilisation in a plaster cast for 3 weeks. There is no literature identifying current practice amongst surgeons. SUBJECTS AND METHODS This survey's aim was to reveal current practice in Wales by means of a postal questionnaire sent to all Welsh orthopaedic consultants. RESULTS The questionnaire had a 60% response rate. Results demonstrated varied opinion regarding the degree of displacement warranting reduction. Overall, 10% of surgeons reduce the fracture at 30° of displacement, 29% at 40°, 18% at 50° and 20% at 60° of displacement. The treatment was also very varied. Most surgeons preferred to treat these fractures with neighbour strapping (43%,) while others preferred plaster immobilisation (39%) or immediate mobilisation (10%.) Only 22% of surgeons discharge these patients back to the community after their first visit to out-patients while 13% offer two follow-up appointments. CONCLUSIONS The treatment being offered for this common fracture in Wales is inconsistent. There is a need to develop evidence- based best practice guidelines which should standardise the treatment of this common injury. Perhaps, a large multicentre outcome study may enable this to be drawn up in the future.

Published
2010
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