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The objective of this article is to analyze the resource curse or paradox of plenty debate (the idea that dependence and abundance of natural resources are an obstacle to development), with a focus on Latin America from a long-run perspective. For this purpose, an interpretive meta-analysis of concepts from three different bodies of literature is used: 1) the relationship between natural resources and development in the history of economic thought; 2) the staple theory of growth, or of industrialization by diversification, and 3) the debate on the resource curse with emphasis on seminal Latin American works or the Latin American region. The conclusion of the work is twofold: the institutions, understood as national and international political economy restrictions, have so far prevented Latin America from reproducing the virtuous circle of industrialization by diversification from the export of basic products, and institutional designs are a condition that can and should be modified by the collective agency of the state so that sovereign governance over natural resources fulfills its purposes of distributive and productive transformation, and thus escape the impoverishing specialization trap. RESUMEN. El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el debate sobre la maldición de los recursos o la paradoja de la abundancia (la idea de que la dependencia y la abundancia de recursos naturales son un obstáculo para el desarrollo), con el foco puesto en América Latina desde una perspectiva de larga duración. Para ello, se recurre al metaanálisis interpretativo de conceptos de tres cuerpos diferentes de la literatura: 1) la relación entre recursos naturales y desarrollo en la historia del pensamiento económico; 2) la teoría del crecimiento basado en productos básicos ?o de la industrialización por diversificación?, y 3) el debate sobre la maldición de los recursos con énfasis en los trabajos seminales latinoamericanos o sobre América Latina. La conclusión del trabajo es doble: las instituciones, entendidas como restricciones de economía política nacional e internacional, han impedido hasta ahora que en América Latina se reproduzca el círculo virtuoso de la industrialización por diversificación a partir de la exportación de productos básicos, y los diseños institucionales son una condición que puede y debe ser modificada por la agencia colectiva del Estado con el fin de que la gobernanza soberana sobre los recursos naturales cumpla sus fines de transformación distributiva y productiva, y sea posible escapar así de la trampa de la especialización empobrecedora.

Papua New Guinea (PNG) has faced a foreign exchange (forex) shortage since 2015. To protect reserves, the Bank of PNG has resorted to forex rationing that led to a large backlog of orders and import compression. This paper surveys the structure of PNG's forex market and analyzes recent market conditions. We argue that the various policy proposals being discussed currently in PNG are inadequate to restore currency convertibility. For this, a real exchange rate depreciation is required instead. We develop a forex market model that features a backlog of unmet orders, which suggests that a frontloaded depreciation is preferred to an often-favored gradual adjustment. Empirical results indicate that the government's large budget deficits have contributed to the forex shortage, which highlight the need for greater fiscal restraint. In the longer term, we argue for more exchange rate flexibility and forex allocation through competitive auction.

This paper compares two alternative growth paths, assessing the effects on productivity of specialisation in natural resources (NR) and in technologically advanced products. The empirical analysis exploits product-level export data for 109 developing and 51 developed economies over the period 1996-2018. We document two distinct types of specialisation, based on exports either of natural resources or of technological products, and compare their role in productivity growth by GMM estimation of a conditional convergence model. In general, reliance on natural resource exports slows growth, but we find that the type of resources exported is important: fuel exports hamper growth while specialisation in metals enhances the catch-up in productivity. Technological specialisation, especially in products typical of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, reinforces productivity growth but does not affect the relationship between resources and productivity growth.

After the painful transition process from a command economy to a market economy, Azerbaijan used its rich hydrocarbon resources to promote economic growth and development. As a result, national income and per capita income soared, infrastructure improved, and poverty was reduced. However, Azerbaijan's economy seems to have been caught up in the negative effects of the oil boom. In other words, non-oil tradeable sectors such as manufacturing have not been able to build on the success and gain a high share of output, employment, and exports due to the increase in the real effective exchange rate (REER) and domestic prices. So far, the literature on studies of Dutch disease in the Azerbaijani economy has focused on highly aggregated data without properly separating the effects of Dutch disease, namely resource movement and spending effects. In this paper, the effects of resource movement were examined using manufacturing employment with a standard unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR). However, to ensure analytical accuracy, the spending effect was also considered. The results show that manufacturing employment responds positively to mining employment. However, when employment in the service sector increases, manufacturing employment shrinks, which is also negatively affected by oil prices and the appreciation of the REER. These results may be useful for policymakers to neutralize the impact of Dutch disease to ensure sustainable development goals and promote export-led growth policies in the manufacturing sector.

We show that the incorporation of offshore entities increases when oil and gas exploration licences are awarded. We exploit leaked data on the incorporation of shell companies and detailed information on tax havens and the awarding rounds of oil licences to construct a new data set covering 119 countries over the period 1990-2014. We consider the incorporation of offshore entities as an indicator of corruption risk. We find that the number of new shell companies increases by 11.1 per cent in the period around the award of an exploration licence. We interpret this evidence as a strong indicator that the award of an exploration licence increases the risk of corruption. Consistent with rent-maximising behaviour, this association is stronger when the price of oil increases. Our work informs the fight against corruption, proposing greater monitoring of the ultimate beneficiaries of opaque companies that participate in awarding procedures.

At the onset of the United Nations' decade of ecosystem restoration, lessons from well-designed impact evaluations on land restoration programs are crucial for improving policymaking. This study presents findings from a systematic review of research on the socioeconomic impact of such interventions, namely within agroforestry, conservation agriculture, integrated soil fertility management and soil and water conservation. We focus on identifying rigorous impact assessments, and after careful methodological assessment select only 29 relevant publications. We identify three key knowledge gaps. First, we retained no studies on agroforestry, suggesting a need for impact evaluations in this domain. Second, most studies look solely at farm-level outcomes instead of socioeconomic outcomes. Third, two-thirds of studies report positive on farm- or socioeconomic outcomes, but impact does not appear ubiquitous and may emerge under certain circumstances only. Overall, we conclude that there is a lack of well-designed impact assessments in this field. Promises on land restoration leading to improvements in the socioeconomic situation of households cannot yet be backed up by existing studies and it remains unclear which interventions work under which conditions. Zu Beginn der von den Vereinten Nationen ausgerufenen Dekade für die Wiederherstellung der Ökosysteme sind die Erkenntnisse aus gut konzipierten Folgeabschätzungen von Landwiederherstellungprogrammen entscheidend für die Verbesserung politischer Entscheidungen. In dieser Studie werden die Ergebnisse einer systematischen Überprüfung der Forschung zu sozioökonomischen Auswirkungen solcher Interventionen vorgestellt, insbesondere aus den Bereich Agroforstwirtschaft, konservierende Landwirtschaft, integriertes Bodenfruchtbarkeitsmanagement sowie Boden- und Wasserschutz.Wir konzentrieren uns auf die Identifizierung stenger Folgenabschätzung und wählen nach sorgfältiger methodischer Bewertung nur 29 relevante Veröffentlichungen aus. Drei wesentliche Wissenslücken stellen wir fest: 1. Wir haben keine Studien zur Agroforstwirtschaft gefunden, was auf einen Bedarf an Folgeabschätzungen in diesem Bereich hinweist. 2. Die meisten Studien befassen sich ausschließlich mit den Ergebnissen auf Betriebsebene und nicht mit den sozioökonomischen Ergebnissen. 3. Zwei Drittel der Studien berichten über positive Auswirkungen auf die landwirtschaftlichen oder sozioökonomischen Ergebnisse, aber diese Auswirkungen scheinen nicht überall zu sein und treten möglicherweise nur unter bestimmten Umständen auf. Insgesamt kommen wir zu dem Schluss, dass es in diesem Bereich an gut konzipierten Folgeabschätzungen mangelt. Versprechungen über die Wiederherstellung von Land, die zu einer Verbesserung der sozioökonomischen Situation der Haushalte führen, können noch nicht durch bestehende Studien untermauert werden, und es bleibt unklar, welche Maßnahmen unter welchen Bedingungen funktionieren.

Extractive industries form an important part of the economy for many developingcountries, but their impact on growth and welfare remains understudied. With global efforts to transition to net-zero carbon emissions in the coming decades, understanding the local impacts of the extractives sector is crucially important for regional economic development policy in the management of this transition. In this paper we use tax administrative data from South Africa to examine the local spillovers from mining activities, focusing on wages, firm profitability, and job creation. Utilizing exogenous changes in international mineral and metals prices, which had a heterogeneous impact across different local areas depending on the main minerals and metals being extracted, we find that, in the short term, a general contraction in the mining sector reduces the number of jobs in related service industries, as well as the wages received by local workers in those sectors. We also find evidence that a negative shock to the mining sector through vertical integration will have negative productivity impacts on the tradable sectors (especially manufacturing).

Recent research shows that natural resources can hurt institutions by promoting corruption and diverting resources from the production of public goods. This, in turn, may have implications for the trust individuals hold for their governments. We explore this possibility by linking survey data on over 43,000 individuals with spatial data on mine locations in 27 post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. By exploiting the information on the development status of each mine site, we draw comparisons between individuals living in the vicinity of active versus inactive mines, imitating a difference-in-differences strategy applied to cross-sectional data. We show that there is a negative association between mining and trust in government - a finding that is robust to a battery of tests. Our analysis of the mechanisms confirms that corruption perception and, to a lesser extent, dissatisfaction with public good provision, are likely behind this relationship. The analysis of the consequences of such mistrust in government points towards a potentially damaging impact of mining for new democracies. The results suggest that mining activity might decrease individuals' willingness to go on lawful demonstrations and participate in civil and political movements.

We present a simple model of internal and external balance that incorporates the key features of resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). The main result is that "government take", which is the ratio of fiscal resource revenue to resource output, is a key determinant of the equilibrium real exchange rate (RER) in RRDCs. In examining the case of Papua New Guinea, which has grappled with foreign exchange restrictions since 2015, we find that about half of the RER overvaluation estimated at 26% in 2019 would disappear if the current low level of government take was to be lifted to its longterm average. The analysis has two key takeaways for RRDCs. First, changes in the government take require adjustments to the RER and fiscal policy to maintain internal and external balance. Second, economic adjustments to falls in the take are difficult; therefore policies that seek to stabilize the take over time to promote macroeconomic stability are recommended.

This paper investigates the economic impacts of the mining sector on household expenditures. Employing the difference-in-differences model and the Mongolia Household Socio-Economic Survey data from 2008 to 2016, I find that the mining activities benefited local residents. Specifically, mining activities increase household expenditures on food, health, and electricity, respectively, while households reduce their expenditures on education and other non-food items. Interestingly, illness did not increase in the resource-producing region, while educational attainment improved. The findings highlight that the positive impacts of the mining sector are likely to be higher than what is determined by traditional welfare measurements of income and consumption. I provide some anecdotal evidence that the changes in household expenditure patterns can be due to increased availability of health care services and educational facilities in the mining region.

This paper revisits the resource curse hypothesis by examining the nexus between crude oil price and economic growth for a panel of 32 Sub-Saharan Africa countries from 1980 to 2017. Employing the panel vector autoregression (VAR) estimation technique, we found evidence of a significant positive effect of crude oil price on economic growth both in the short run and long run. However, after splitting the panel into net oil exporters and importers, the results for net oil importers remain consistent with those obtained for the whole panel, unlike those for net oil exporters revealing a positive and negative effect of crude oil price on economic growth in the short-run and long-run periods, respectively. This confirms the resource curse hypothesis for oil-exporting countries under consideration. Moreover, we found evidence of bidirectional causality between crude oil price and real GDP. Consequently, to boost economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, various governments should encourage economic diversification, increase investments in human capital in view of enhancing the development of the oil sector by ensuring an efficient management of oil revenues, as well as intensifying the fight against corruption. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43546-021-00179-x.

Sovereign Wealth Funds sind eine heterogene Gruppe von Fonds, die grundsätzlich durch Staaten gegründet werden und in staatlichem Auftrag ihr Kapital anlegen. Das Fondsvermögen wird meist aus Erlösen von Rohstoffexporten oder Budgetüberschüssen gespeist. Es wird zur Stabilisierung in wirtschaftlich schwierigen Zeiten, zur intergenerationalen Umverteilung oder für den Strukturwandel eingesetzt. Hierbei spielten bislang „grüne Investitionen“ eine geringe Rolle. Dies lag u. a. daran, dass aufgrund der moderaten Ölpreisentwicklung in den letzten Jahren die Einnahmen aus Ölexporten und damit das Fondsvolumen von SWF weniger dynamisch zunahmen als vor der globalen Finanzkrise. Zudem haben „ressourcenreiche“ Länder mit SWF bislang wenige Anreize in klimafreundliche Politiken zu investieren. Mit der Agenda 2030 für nachhaltige Entwicklung gibt es nun erste Initiativen von SWF, sich stärker für nachhaltige Entwicklung zu engagieren. Noch handelt es sich um vereinzelte, wenig koordinierte Projekte. Vor dem Hintergrund internationaler Klimaabkommen könnten SWF eine Brückenfunktion übernehmen, indem das während der Rohstoffgewinnung und -ausfuhr akkumulierte Fondsvermögen zur Dekarbonisierung und zur Diversifizierung der Wirtschaftsstruktur beiträgt. In den Verhandlungen zu den Klimazielen zeichnet sich indes ab, dass die Akteure sich nur in einem mühsamen Verständigungsprozess auf ausgereifte Finanzierungsstrategien für den Klimaschutz einigen werden. Sovereign Wealth Funds are a heterogeneous group of funds. In principle, they are established by national governments and invest their capital on behalf of state authorities. Fund assets are generated by revenues of commodity exports or budget surpluses. It is used for stabilization purposes in difficult economic times, for intergenerational redistribution and structural change. Thereby green investments have played a minor role, so far. Among others, the reason was that due to moderate oil price development in recent years oil export revenues increase less dynamic as it was the case before the global financial crisis. In addition, “resource rich” countries with SWF have few incentives to invest in climate-friendly policies. In the course of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development SWF have taken first initiatives to get more involved into sustainable development. So far these are only few and poorly coordinated projects. In light of international climate agreements SWF could act as bridge builders by using funds assets accumulated during the phase of commodity exports for de-carbonization and diversification of the economy. However, negotiations on climate targets reveal that the involved actors will agree on a mature financing strategy only in a tough process of understanding.

This paper assesses the "treatment effect" of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) membership on tax revenues through two main channels. The first (direct) works through an equitable and transparent resource tax regime. The second is the indirect effect EITI has on non-resource revenue once transparency enhances accountability and resource allocation to productive expenditures. Based on a sample of 83 resource-rich developing countries (44 EITI and 39 non-EITI) for the period from 1995 to 2017, we use propensity score matching (PSM) methods developed in the treatment effect literature to address the self-selection bias associated with EITI membership (the dates of countries' commitment, candidacy, and compliance). Results show that EITI commitment and/or candidates have significant and positive effects on tax revenue collection, compared to non-EITI (on average 1.06 to 1.20 percentage points), and the EITI compliance generates a considerable surplus of tax revenues (on average 1.09 to 1.13 percentage points of GDP), compared to non-compliant (commitment and candidate). Besides, the magnitudes of the effects are greater and more significant if we include governance indicators. The results are robust, with a more significant increase in non-resource tax revenues and income tax. The paper reveals that EITI members have higher levels of tax revenue than nonmembers and that tax revenue is higher when countries are compliant with the initiative, even higher with quality of governance, and heterogeneous due to structural factors.

Developing countries that experience commodity booms struggle to mobilize sustainable tax revenues. Emerging literature on the subject notwithstanding, there is limited exploration of the specific types of institutions critical for improving fiscal capacity in resourcerich contexts. This paper investigates which types of institutions moderate the adverse effect of natural resource rents on non-resource tax effort. I propose a simple theoretical model and complement its insights with an empirical examination of the mediating role of 12 different measures of institutional quality commonly used in the literature. I find evidence of a mitigating role for 'constraints on executive power' and 'democracy'. Other covariates found to be important are national income per capita, the size of the agricultural sector, and control of corruption. The results suggest that effort to bolster sustainable tax effort in resource-rich contexts must focus not only on building effective political institutions but also on addressing structural constraints.

The Brazilian mineral industry has maintained a steady growth rate in recent years and despite the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, which affected all economic activity sectors, mining performance showed significant growth in 2020, generating public revenues from mining royalties 35% higher than the previous year. One of the first measures the brazillian government took to deal with the pandemic was the determination of which activities came to be considered essential for sustaining the economy and guaranteeing the means to overcome the crisis, among which the mineral activity was considered. In order to present the Covid-19 panorama of contagion in the largest Brazilian mining municipalities and to point out those most at risk, the qualitative methodology of this research involved the survey of the municipal incidence rate of Covid-19 in the 133 largest mining municipalities, that were selected based on the annual collection of royalties above R$ 1 million in 2019. The evolution of the stock of jobs in the extractive industry was also monitored to determine the degree of its participation on the incidence of Covid-19, the maintenance of mineral activity during the pandemic and its relevance among the other economic sectors that were active in the selected municipalities. As a result, it was found that among the 133 selected mining municipalities, which account for 95.91% of the CFEM collected, 90 municipalities, representing 88.44% of the CFEM, can be considered affected by the pandemic, from which 23 municipalities present incidence rates considered very high and above the national average.

This scientific enquiry examines the role of capital investment in the energy-pollution model in SANEM countries. The methodology is based on the Pooled Mean Group (PMG), which is appropriate for a heterogeneous panel. Findings reveal that energy use negatively impacts CO2 emissions in Algeria, South Africa, Morocco, and the panel, in the short-run; however, it positively impacts CO2pollution in Nigeria, Egypt, and the panel, in the long-run. Again, investment exerts a positive effect on CO2 in South Africa and Algeria, whereas it is negative in Nigeria, Egypt, and Morocco. Capital investment also expands short-run pollution in the panel, but it reduces long-run pollution. Lastly, the energy-investment interaction reduces the panel's CO2pollution in the short-run and long-run, as well as, in Morocco, Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa, except in Algeria. Thus, we conclude that capital investment is crucial in the energy-pollution nexus and suggest cooperation in attracting low-carbon emitting investments to the region.