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Survival of juvenile salmonids in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) varies by migration route, and thus the proportion of fish that use each route affects overall survival through the Delta. Understanding factors that drive routing at channel junctions along the Sacramento River is therefore critical to devising management strategies that maximize survival. Here, we examine entrainment of acoustically tagged juvenile Chinook Salmon into Sutter and Steamboat sloughs from the Sacramento River. Because these sloughs divert fish away from the downstream entrances of the Delta Cross Channel and Georgiana Slough (where fish access the low-survival region of the interior Delta), management actions to increase fish entrainment into Sutter and Steamboat sloughs are being investigated to increase through-Delta survival. Previous studies suggest that fish generally “go with the flow”—as net flow into a divergence increases, the proportion of fish that enter that divergence correspondingly increases. However, complex tidal hydrodynamics at sub-daily time-scales may be decoupled from net flow. Therefore, we modeled routing of acoustic tagged juvenile salmon as a function of tidally varying hydrodynamic data, which was collected using temporary gaging stations deployed between March and May of 2014. Our results indicate that discharge, the proportion of flow that entered the slough, and the rate of change of flow were good predictors of an individual’s probability of being entrained. In addition, interactions between discharge and the proportion of flow revealed a non-linear relationship between flow and entrainment probability. We found that the highest proportions of fish are likely to be entrained into Steamboat Slough and Sutter Slough on the ascending and descending limbs of the tidal cycle, when flow changes from positive to negative. Our findings characterize how patterns of entrainment vary with tidal flow fluctuations, providing information critical for understanding the potential effect of management actions (e.g., fish guidance structures) to modify routing probabilities at this location.

Because fish that enter the interior Delta have poorer survival than those emigrating via the Sacramento River, understanding the mechanisms that drive entrainment rates at side channel junctions is critically important for the management of imperiled juvenile salmon. Here, we implement a previously proposed process-based conceptual model to study entrainment rates based on three linked elements: the entrainment zone, critical streakline, and cross-sectional distribution of fish. The critical streakline is the location along a channel cross-section immediately upstream of a junction that forms the spatial divide between parcels of water that enter a side channel or remain in the main channel. The critical streakline therefore divides the main channel into entrainment zones within which fish would likely enter each channel. Combined with information about the cross-sectional distribution of fish upstream of a junction, this conceptual model provides a means to predict fish entrainment into each channel. To apply this conceptual model, we combined statistical models of the critical streakline, the cross-sectional distribution of acoustic tagged juvenile Chinook salmon, and their probability of entrainment into Georgiana Slough. We fit joint beta regression and logistic regression models to acoustic telemetry data gathered in 2011 and 2012 to estimate the cross-sectional distribution of fish upstream of the junction, and to estimate the probability of entrainment for fish on either side of the critical streakline. We show that entrainment rates can be predicted by understanding how the combination of critical streakline position and cross-sectional distribution of fish co-vary as a function of environmental covariates. By integrating over individual positions and entrainment fates to arrive at population-level entrain probability in relation to environmental covariates, our model offers managers a simple but powerful tool to evaluate how alternative actions affect migrating fish.

A robust monitoring network that provides quantitative information about the status of imperiled species at key life stages and geographic locations over time is fundamental for sustainable management of fisheries resources. For anadromous species, management actions in one geographic domain can substantially affect abundance of subsequent life stages that span broad geographic regions. Quantitative metrics (e.g., abundance, movement, survival, life history diversity, and condition) at multiple life stages are needed to inform how management actions (e.g., hatcheries, harvest, hydrology, and habitat restoration) influence salmon population dynamics. The existing monitoring network for endangered Sacramento River winter-run Chinook Salmon (SRWRC, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in California’s Central Valley was compared to conceptual models developed for each life stage and geographic region of the life cycle to identify relevant SRWRC metrics. We concluded that the current monitoring network was insufficient to diagnose when (life stage) and where (geographic domain) chronic or episodic reductions in SRWRC cohorts occur, precluding within- and among-year comparisons. The strongest quantitative data exist in the Upper Sacramento River, where abundance estimates are generated for adult spawners and emigrating juveniles. However, once SRWRC leave the upper river, our knowledge of their identity, abundance, and condition diminishes, despite the juvenile monitoring enterprise. We identified six system-wide recommended actions to strengthen the value of data generated from the existing monitoring network to assess resource management actions: (1) incorporate genetic run identification; (2) develop juvenile abundance estimates; (3) collect data for life history diversity metrics at multiple life stages; (4) expand and enhance real-time fish survival and movement monitoring; (5) collect fish condition data; and (6) provide timely public access to monitoring data in open data formats. To illustrate how updated technologies can enhance the existing monitoring to provide quantitative data on SRWRC, we provide examples of how each recommendation can address specific management issues

As juvenile salmon enter the Sacramento–SanJoaquin River Delta (“the Delta”) they disperse among its complex channel network where they are subject to channel-specific processes that affect their rate of migration, vulnerability to predation, feeding success, growth rates, and ultimately, survival. In the decades before 2006, tools available to quantify growth, dispersal, and survival of juvenile salmon in this complex channel network were limited.Fortunately, thanks to technological advances such as acoustic telemetry and chemical and structural otolith analysis, much has been learned over the past decade about the role of the Delta in the life cycle of juvenile salmon. Here, we review new science between 2006and 2016 that sheds light on how different life stages and runs of juvenile salmon grow, move, and survive in the complex channel network of the Delta. One of the most important advances during the past decade has been the widespread adoption of acoustic telemetry techniques. Use of telemetry has shed light on how survival varies among alternative migration routes and the proportion of fish that use each migration route. Chemical and structural analysis of otoliths has provided insights about when juveniles left their natal river and provided evidence of extended rearing in the brackish or saltwater regions of the Delta. New advancements in genetics now allow individuals captured by trawls to be assigned to specific runs. Detailed information about movement and survival in the Delta has spurred development of agent-based models of juvenile salmon that are coupled to hydrodynamic models. Although much has been learned, knowledge gaps remain about how very small juvenile salmon (fry and parr) use theDelta. Understanding how all life stages of juvenile salmon grow, rear, and survive in the Delta is critical for devising management strategies that support a diversity of life history strategies.

How effective is closing the gates of the Delta Cross Channel in preventing young salmon from entering the interior of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, where water diversions occur and salmon mortalities are high?What other factors influence a migrating salmon’s chances of making it to sea? This project examined these questions by tagging and tracking more than a thousand juvenile Chinook salmon released into the Sacramento River. The data were used to estimate salmon survival rates along different migration routes and their relation to the operation of the cross channel, flow rates and tides, among other things. A subsequent model has been developed for predicting the effects of future water management actions on salmon.