Search

Your search keyword '"Otto, Friederike E. L."' showing total 197 results
Start Over Author "Otto, Friederike E. L." Search Limiters Available in Library Collection
197 results on '"Otto, Friederike E. L."'

3. EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2016 : From A Climate Perspective

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Christidi, Nikolaos, Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., Schreck, Carl J., Stott, Peter A., Webb, Robert S., Werner, Francisco E., Knutson, Thomas R., Kam, Jonghun, Zeng, Fanrong, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Brainard, Russell E., Oliver, Thomas, McPhaden, Michael J., Cohen, Anne, Venegas, Robert o, Heenan, Adel, Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo, Rotjan, Randi, Mangubhai, Sangeeta, Flint, Elizabeth, Hunter, Susan A., Oliver, Eric C. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Holbrook, Neil J., Bindoff, Nathaniel L., Tett, Simon F. B., Falk, Alexander, Rogers, Megan, Spuler, Fiona, Turner, Calum, Wainwright, Joshua, Dimdore-Miles, Oscar, Knight, Sam, Freychet, Nicolas, Mineter, Michael J., Lehmann, Caroline E. R., Martins, Eduardo S. P. R., Coelho, Caio A. S., Haarsma, Rein, Otto, Friederike E. L., King, Andrew D., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Kew, Sarah, Philip, Sjoukje, Vasconcelos, Francisco C., Cullen, Heidi, Jézéquel, Aglaé, Yiou, Pascal, Radanovics, Sabine, Vautard, Robert, Sippel, Sebastian, El-Madany, Tarek S., Migliavacca, Mirco, Mahecha, Miguel D., Carrara, Arnaud, Flach, Milan, Kaminski, Thomas, Otto, Friederike E. L., Thonicke, Kirsten, Vossbeck, Michael, Reichstein, Markus, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Linying, Wood, Eric F., Funk, Chris, Davenport, Frank, Harrison, Laura, Magadzire, Tamuka, Galu, Gideon, Artan, Guleid A., Shukla, Shraddhanand, Korecha, Diriba, Indeje, Matayo, Pomposi, Catherine, Macharia, Denis, Husak, Gregory, Nsadisa, Faka Dieudonne, Imada, Yukiko, Shiogama, Hideo, Takahashi, Chiharu, Watanabe, Masahiro, Mori, Masato, Kamae, Youichi, Maeda, Shuhei, Sun, Qiaohong, Miao, Chiyuan, Zhou, Chunlüe, Wang, Kaicun, Qi, Dan, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Shanshan, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Qian, Cheng, Wang, Jun, Dong, Siyan, Yin, Hong, Burke, Claire, Ciavarella, Andrew, Dong, Buwen, Freychet, Nicolas, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., Sun, Ying, Hu, Ting, Zhang, Xuebin, Wan, Hui, Stott, Peter, Lu, Chunhui, Christidis, Nikolaos, Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan, Ciavarella, Andrew, Stott, Peter A., Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Hendon, Harry, Wang, Guomin, Lewis, Sophie C., Mallela, Jennie, Grose, Michael R., Black, Mitchell, Risbey, James S., Uhe, Peter, Hope, Pandora K., Haustein, Karsten, Mitchell, Dann, Stott, Peter A., Christidis, Nikos, Herring, Stephanie C., Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., and Schreck, Carl J.

Published
2018

4. Biodiversity loss and climate extremes — study the feedbacks

Author

Mahecha, Miguel D., Bastos, Ana, Bohn, Friedrich J., Eisenhauer, Nico, Feilhauer, Hannes, Hartmann, Henrik, Hickler, Thomas, Kalesse-Los , Heike, Migliavacca, Mirco, Otto, Friederike E. L., Peng, Jian, Quaas, Johannes, Tegen, Ina, Weigelt, Alexandra, Wendisch, Manfred, and Wirth , Christian

Published
2022
Full Text
View/download PDF

11. Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years?

Author

Sippel, Sebastian, Zscheischler, Jakob, Heimann, Martin, Lange, Holger, Mahecha, Miguel D., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Otto, Friederike E. L., and Reichstein, Markus

Subjects
Physics - Geophysics, Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

Daily rainfall extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the last decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these global tendencies have not been shown to consistently affect land regions with limited moisture availability. A recent study, published by Donat et al. (2016, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2941), now identified rapid increases in globally aggregated dry region daily extreme rainfall and annual rainfall totals. Here, we reassess the respective analysis and find that a) statistical artifacts introduced by the choice of the reference period prior to data standardization lead to an overestimation of the reported trends by up to 40%, and also that b) the definition of `dry regions of the globe' affect the reported globally aggregated trends in extreme rainfall. Using the same observational dataset, but accounting for the statistical artifacts and using alternative, well-established dryness definitions, we find no significant increases in heavy precipitation in the world's dry regions. Adequate data pre-processing approaches and accounting for uncertainties regarding the definition of dryness are crucial to the quantification of spatially aggregated trends in the world's dry regions. In view of the high relevance of the question to many potentially affected stakeholders, we call for a cautionary consideration of specific data processing methods, including issues related to the definition of dry areas, to guarantee robustness of communicated climate change relevant findings.

Published
2016

12. Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 drought in Central South America

Author

Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Arias, Paola A., Rivera, Juan Antonio, Sörensson, Anna A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A., Otto, Friederike E. L., Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Arias, Paola A., Rivera, Juan Antonio, Sörensson, Anna A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A., and Otto, Friederike E. L.

Published
2024

14. Science for Loss and Damage. Findings and Propositions

Author

Mechler, Reinhard, Calliari, Elisa, Bouwer, Laurens M., Schinko, Thomas, Surminski, Swenja, Linnerooth-Bayer, JoAnne, Aerts, Jeroen, Botzen, Wouter, Boyd, Emily, Deckard, Natalie Delia, Fuglestvedt, Jan S., González-Eguino, Mikel, Haasnoot, Marjolijn, Handmer, John, Haque, Masroora, Heslin, Alison, Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan, Huggel, Christian, Huq, Saleemul, James, Rachel, Jones, Richard G., Juhola, Sirkku, Keating, Adriana, Kienberger, Stefan, Kreft, Sönke, Kuik, Onno, Landauer, Mia, Laurien, Finn, Lawrence, Judy, Lopez, Ana, Liu, Wei, Magnuszewski, Piotr, Markandya, Anil, Mayer, Benoit, McCallum, Ian, McQuistan, Colin, Meyer, Lukas, Mintz-Woo, Kian, Montero-Colbert, Arianna, Mysiak, Jaroslav, Nalau, Johanna, Noy, Ilan, Oakes, Robert, Otto, Friederike E. L., Pervin, Mousumi, Roberts, Erin, Schäfer, Laura, Scussolini, Paolo, Serdeczny, Olivia, de Sherbinin, Alex, Simlinger, Florentina, Sitati, Asha, Sultana, Saibeen, Young, Hannah R., van der Geest, Kees, van den Homberg, Marc, Wallimann-Helmer, Ivo, Warner, Koko, Zommers, Zinta, Mechler, Reinhard, Series Editor, Surminski, Swenja, Series Editor, Bouwer, Laurens M., editor, Schinko, Thomas, editor, and Linnerooth-Bayer, JoAnne, editor

Published
2019
Full Text
View/download PDF

16. EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2017 : From A Climate Perspective

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Christidis, Nikolaos, Hoell, Andrew, Hoerling, Marty, Stott, Peter A., Owen, Rebecca, Vano, Julie A., Dettinger, Michael D., Cifelli, Rob, Curtis, David, Dufour, Alexis, Miller, Kathleen, Olsen, J. Rolf, Wilson, Anna M., Nerem, R. S., Fasullo, J., Hoell, Andrew, Perlwitz, Judith, Dewes, Candida, Wolter, Klaus, Rangwala, Imtiaz, Quan, Xiao-Wei, Eischeid, Jon, Wang, Hailan, Schubert, Siegfried D., Koster, Randal D., Chang, Yehui, Christidis, Nikolaos, Betts, Richard A., Stott, Peter A., de Abreu, Rafael C., Cunningham, Christopher, Rudorff, Conrado M., Rudorff, Natalia, Abatan, Abayomi A., Dong, Buwen, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., Sparrow, Sarah N., Navarro, Juan C. Acosta, Ortega, Pablo, García-Serrano, Javier, Guemas, Virginie, Tourigny, Etienne, Cruz-García, Rubén, Massonnet, François, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Kew, Sarah F., Philip, Sjoukje Y., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Otto, Friederike E. L., Vautard, Robert, van der Schrier, Gerard, Funk, Chris, Hoell, Andrew, Nicholson, Sharon, Korecha, Diriba, Galu, Gideon, Artan, Guleid, Teshome, Fetene, Hailermariam, Kinfe, Segele, Zewdu, Harrison, Laura, Tadege, Abebe, Atheru, Zachary, Pomposi, Catherine, Pedreros, Diego, Rimi, Ruksana H., Haustein, Karsten, Barbour, Emily J., Allen, Myles R., Takahashi, Chiharu, Shiogama, Hideo, Imada, Yukiko, Kosaka, Yu, Mori, Masato, Arai, Miki, Kamae, Youichi, Watanabe, Masahiro, Min, Seung-Ki, Kim, Yeon-Hee, Park, In-Hong, Lee, Donghyun, Sparrow, Sarah, Wallom, David, Stone, Dáithí, Sun, Ying, Dong, Siyan, Zhang, Xuebin, Stott, Peter, Hu, Ting, Wang, Shanshan, Yuan, Xing, Wu, Renguang, Chen, Yang, Chen, Wei, Su, Qin, Luo, Feifei, Sparrow, Sarah, Tian, Fangxing, Dong, Buwen, Tett, Simon F. B., Lott, Fraser C., Wallom, David, Zhou, Chunlüe, Wang, Kaicun, Qi, Dan, Tan, Jianguo, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., King, A. D., Cougnon, E. A., Grose, M. R., Oliver, E. C. J., Holbrook, N. J., Lewis, S. C., Pourasghar, F., Hope, Pandora, Black, Mitchell T., Lim, Eun-Pa, Dowdy, Andrew, Wang, Guomin, Pepler, Acacia S., and Fawcett, Robert J. B.

Published
2019

19. Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts

Author

Zachariah, Mariam, primary, T, Arulalan, additional, AchutaRao, Krishna Mirle, additional, Saeed, Fahad, additional, Jha, Roshan, additional, Dhasmana, Manish Kumar, additional, Mondal, Arpita, additional, Bonnet, Remy, additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Vahlberg, Maja, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, Heinrich, Dorothy, additional, Thalheimer, Lisa, additional, Marghidan, Carolina Pereira, additional, Kapoor, Aditi, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Raju, Emmanuel, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Sun, Jingru, additional, Vecchi, Gabriel A, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Hauser, Mathias, additional, Schumacher, Dominik L, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I, additional, Harrington, Luke James, additional, and Otto, Friederike E L, additional

Published
2023
Full Text
View/download PDF

24. Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Author

Otto, Friederike E L, primary, Zachariah, Mariam, additional, Saeed, Fahad, additional, Siddiqi, Ayesha, additional, Kamil, Shahzad, additional, Mushtaq, Haris, additional, Arulalan, T, additional, AchutaRao, Krishna, additional, Chaithra, S T, additional, Barnes, Clair, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Koren, Gerbrand, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Wolski, Piotr, additional, Vahlberg, Maja, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Thalheimer, Lisa, additional, Raju, Emmanuel, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Harrington, Luke J, additional, and Clarke, Ben, additional

Published
2023
Full Text
View/download PDF

25. Synthesis report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), Longer report. IPCC.

Author

Lee, Hoesung, Calvin, Katherine, Dasgupta, Dipak, Krinmer, Gerhard, Mukherji, Aditi, Thorne, Peter, Trisos, Christopher, Romero, Jose, Aldunce, Paulina, Barret, Ko, Blanco, Gabriel, Cheung, William W.L., Connors, Sarah L., Denton, Fatima, Diongue-Niang, Aïda, Dodman, David, Garschagen, Matthias, Geden, Oliver, Hayward, Bronwyn, Jones, Christopher, Jotzo, Frank, Krug, Thelma, Lasco, Rodel, Lee, June-Yi, Masson-Delmotte, Valerie, Meinshausen, Malte, Mintenbeck, Katja, Mokssit, Abdalah, Otto, Friederike E. L., Pathak, Minal, Pirani, Anna, Poloczanska, Elvira, Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Revi, Aromar, Roberts, Debra C., Roy, Joyashree, Ruane, Alex C., Skea, Jim, Shukla, Priyadarshi R., Slade, Raphael, Slangen, Aimée, Sokona, Youba, Sörensson, Anna A, Tignor, Melinda, Vuuren, Detlef van, Wei, Yi-Ming, Winkler, Harald, Zhai, Panmao, Zommers, Zinta, Lee, Hoesung, Calvin, Katherine, Dasgupta, Dipak, Krinmer, Gerhard, Mukherji, Aditi, Thorne, Peter, Trisos, Christopher, Romero, Jose, Aldunce, Paulina, Barret, Ko, Blanco, Gabriel, Cheung, William W.L., Connors, Sarah L., Denton, Fatima, Diongue-Niang, Aïda, Dodman, David, Garschagen, Matthias, Geden, Oliver, Hayward, Bronwyn, Jones, Christopher, Jotzo, Frank, Krug, Thelma, Lasco, Rodel, Lee, June-Yi, Masson-Delmotte, Valerie, Meinshausen, Malte, Mintenbeck, Katja, Mokssit, Abdalah, Otto, Friederike E. L., Pathak, Minal, Pirani, Anna, Poloczanska, Elvira, Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Revi, Aromar, Roberts, Debra C., Roy, Joyashree, Ruane, Alex C., Skea, Jim, Shukla, Priyadarshi R., Slade, Raphael, Slangen, Aimée, Sokona, Youba, Sörensson, Anna A, Tignor, Melinda, Vuuren, Detlef van, Wei, Yi-Ming, Winkler, Harald, Zhai, Panmao, and Zommers, Zinta

Abstract

This Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) summarises the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation, based on the peer-reviewed scientific, technical and socio-economic literature since the publication of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. The assessment is undertaken within the context of the evolving international landscape, in particular, developments in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, including the outcomes of the Kyoto Protocol and the adoption of the Paris Agreement. It reflects the increasing diversity of those involved in climate action. This report integrates the main findings of the AR6 Working Group reports1 and the three AR6 Special Reports. It recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies; the value of diverse forms of knowledge; and the close linkages between climate change adaptation, mitigation, ecosystem health, human well-being and sustainable development. Building on multiple analytical frameworks, including those from the physical and social sciences, this report identifies opportunities for transformative action which are effective, feasible, just and equitable using concepts of systems transitions and resilient development pathways. Different regional classification schemes are used for physical, social and economic aspects, reflecting the underlying literature. After this introduction, Section 2, ‘Current Status and Trends’, opens with the assessment of observational evidence for our changing climate, historical and current drivers of human-induced climate change, and its impacts. It assesses the current implementation of adaptation and mitigation response options. Section 3, ‘Long-Term Climate and Development Futures’, provides a long-term assessment of climate change to 2100 and beyond in a broad range of socio-economic futures. It considers long-ter

Published
2023

26. Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Author

Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Otto, Friederike E L, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, Arulalan, T, AchutaRao, Krishna, Chaithra, S T, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke J, Clarke, Ben, Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Otto, Friederike E L, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, Arulalan, T, AchutaRao, Krishna, Chaithra, S T, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke J, and Clarke, Ben

Published
2023

27. Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change:lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts

Author

Zachariah, Mariam, T, Arulalan, Achutarao, Krishna Mirle, Saeed, Fahad, Jha, Roshan, Dhasmana, Manish Kumar, Mondal, Arpita, Bonnet, Remy, Vautard, Robert, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Heinrich, Dorothy, Thalheimer, Lisa, Marghidan, Carolina Pereira, Kapoor, Aditi, Van Aalst, Maarten, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Sun, Jingru, Vecchi, Gabriel A, Yang, Wenchang, Hauser, Mathias, Schumacher, Dominik L, Seneviratne, Sonia I, Harrington, Luke James, Otto, Friederike E L, Zachariah, Mariam, T, Arulalan, Achutarao, Krishna Mirle, Saeed, Fahad, Jha, Roshan, Dhasmana, Manish Kumar, Mondal, Arpita, Bonnet, Remy, Vautard, Robert, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Heinrich, Dorothy, Thalheimer, Lisa, Marghidan, Carolina Pereira, Kapoor, Aditi, Van Aalst, Maarten, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Sun, Jingru, Vecchi, Gabriel A, Yang, Wenchang, Hauser, Mathias, Schumacher, Dominik L, Seneviratne, Sonia I, Harrington, Luke James, and Otto, Friederike E L

Abstract

In March 2022, large parts over the north Indian plains including the breadbasket region, and southern Pakistan began experiencing prolonged heat, which continued into May. The event was exacerbated due to prevailing dry conditions in the region, resulting in devastating consequences for public health and agriculture. Using event attribution methods, we analyse the role of human-induced climate change in altering the chances of such an event. To capture the extent of the impacts, we choose March-April average of daily maximum temperature over the most affected region in India and Pakistan as the variable. In observations, the 2022 event has a return period of ~1-in-100 years. For each of the climate models, we then calculate the change in probability and intensity of a 1-in-100 year event between the actual and counterfactual worlds for quantifying the role of climate change. We estimate that human-caused climate change made this heatwave about 1°C hotter and 30 times more likely in the current, 2022 climate, as compared to the 1.2 °C cooler, pre-industrial climate. Under a future global warming of 2°C above pre-industrial levels, heatwaves like this are expected to become even more common (2–20 times more likely) and hotter (by 0-1.5°C) compared to now. Stronger and frequent heat waves in the future will impact vulnerable groups as conditions in some regions exceed limits for human survivability. Therefore, mitigation is essential for avoiding loss of lives and livelihood. Heat Action Plans (HAPs) have proved effective to help reduce heat-related mortality in both countrie, In March 2022, large parts over the north Indian plains including the breadbasket region, and southern Pakistan began experiencing prolonged heat, which continued into May. The event was exacerbated due to prevailing dry conditions in the region, resulting in devastating consequences for public health and agriculture. Using event attribution methods, we analyse the role of human-induced climate change in altering the chances of such an event. To capture the extent of the impacts, we choose March–April average of daily maximum temperature over the most affected region in India and Pakistan as the variable. In observations, the 2022 event has a return period of ∼1-in-100 years. For each of the climate models, we then calculate the change in probability and intensity of a 1-in-100 year event between the actual and counterfactual worlds for quantifying the role of climate change. We estimate that human-caused climate change made this heatwave about 1 °C hotter and 30 times more likely in the current, 2022 climate, as compared to the 1.2 °C cooler, pre-industrial climate. Under a future global warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, heatwaves like this are expected to become even more common (2–20 times more likely) and hotter (by 0 °C–1.5 °C) compared to now. Stronger and frequent heat waves in the future will impact vulnerable groups as conditions in some regions exceed limits for human survivability. Therefore, mitigation is essential for avoiding loss of lives and livelihood. Heat Action Plans have proved effective to help reduce heat-related mortality in both countries.

Published
2023

28. Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Author

Otto, Friederike E L, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, T, Arulalan, Achutarao, Krishna, S T, Chaitra, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah F, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke James, Clarke, Ben, Otto, Friederike E L, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, T, Arulalan, Achutarao, Krishna, S T, Chaitra, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah F, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke James, and Clarke, Ben

Abstract

As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history. We employ a probabilistic event attribution methodology as well as a detailed assessment of the dynamics to understand the role of climate change in this event. Many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall than the trend we found in the observations. This discrepancy suggests that long-term variability, or processes that our evaluation may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change. However, the majority of models and observations we have analysed show that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan has warmed. Some of these models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity up to 50%. The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability. Both current conditions and the potential further increase in extreme peaks in rainfall over Pakistan in light of anthropogenic climate change, highlight the urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan

Published
2023

29. 2022 early-summer heatwave in Southern South America: 60 times more likely due to climate change

Author

Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Rivera, Juan Antonio, Arias, Paola A. A., Soerensson, Anna A. A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A. A., Harrington, Luke J. J., Otto, Friederike E. L., Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Rivera, Juan Antonio, Arias, Paola A. A., Soerensson, Anna A. A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A. A., Harrington, Luke J. J., and Otto, Friederike E. L.

Published
2023

32. Possible role of anthropogenic climate change in the record-breaking 2020 Lake Victoria levels and floods.

Author

Pietroiusti, Rosa, Vanderkelen, Inne, Otto, Friederike E. L., Barnes, Clair, Temple, Lucy, Akurut, Mary, Bally, Philippe, van Lipzig, Nicole P. M., and Thiery, Wim

Subjects
EFFECT of human beings on climate change, FLOODS, FLOOD risk, SHORELINES, MODES of variability (Climatology), RAINFALL, WATERSHEDS
Abstract

Heavy rainfall in East Africa between late 2019 and mid 2020 caused devastating floods and landslides throughout the region. These rains drove the levels of Lake Victoria to a record-breaking maximum in the second half of May 2020. The combination of high lake levels, consequent shoreline flooding, and flooding of tributary rivers caused hundreds of casualties and damage to housing, agriculture and infrastructure in the riparian countries of Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. Media and government reports linked the heavy precipitation and floods to anthropogenic climate change, but a formal scientific attribution study has not been carried out so far. In this study, we characterise the spatial extent and impacts of the floods in the Lake Victoria basin, and then investigate to what extent human-induced climate change influenced the probability and magnitude of the record-breaking lake levels and associated flooding, by applying a multi-model extreme event attribution methodology. Using remote sensing-based flood mapping tools, we find that more than 29 thousand people living within a 50 km radius of the lake shorelines were affected by floods between April and July 2020. Precipitation in the basin was the highest recorded in at least three decades, causing lake levels to rise by 1.21 m between late 2019 and mid 2020. The flood, defined as a 6-month rise in lake levels as extreme as that observed in the lead-up to May 2020, is estimated to be a 63-year event in the current climate. Based on observations and climate model simulations, the best estimate is that the event has become more likely by a factor of 1.8 in the current climate compared to a pre-industrial climate, and that in the absence of anthropogenic climate change an event with the same return period would have led lake levels to rise by 7 cm less than observed. Nonetheless, uncertainties in the attribution statement are relatively large due to large natural variability, and include the possibility of no observed attributable change in the probability of the event (probability ratio, 95% confidence interval 0.8 - 15.8) or in the magnitude of lake level rise during an event with the same return period (magnitude change, 95% confidence interval 0 - 14 cm). In addition to anthropogenic climate change, other possible drivers of the floods and their impacts include human land and water management, the exposure and vulnerability of settlements and economic activities located in flood-prone areas, and modes of climate variability that modulate seasonal precipitation. The attribution statement could be strengthened by using a larger number of climate model simulations, as well as by quantitatively accounting for non-meteorological drivers of the flood and potential unforced modes of climate variability. By disentangling the role of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability in the high-impact 2020 floods in the Lake Victoria basin, this paper contributes to a better understanding of changing hydrometeorological extremes in East Africa and the African Great Lakes region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
Full Text
View/download PDF

34. Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Author

Philip, Sjoukje Y., primary, Kew, Sarah F., additional, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, additional, Anslow, Faron S., additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Coumou, Dim, additional, Ebi, Kristie L., additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Pereira Marghidan, Carolina, additional, Wehner, Michael, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Schumacher, Dominik L., additional, Hauser, Mathias, additional, Bonnet, Rémy, additional, Luu, Linh N., additional, Lehner, Flavio, additional, Gillett, Nathan, additional, Tradowsky, Jordis S., additional, Vecchi, Gabriel A., additional, Rodell, Chris, additional, Stull, Roland B., additional, Howard, Rosie, additional, and Otto, Friederike E. L., additional

Published
2022
Full Text
View/download PDF

35. Limited role of climate change in extreme low rainfall associated with southern Madagascar food insecurity, 2019–21

Author

Harrington, Luke J, primary, Wolski, Piotr, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Ramarosandratana, Anzelà Mamiarisoa, additional, Barimalala, Rondrotiana, additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Heinrich, Dorothy, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, Raju, Emmanuel, additional, Thalheimer, Lisa, additional, Razanakoto, Thierry, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Bonnet, Remy, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Otto, Friederike E L, additional, and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, additional

Published
2022
Full Text
View/download PDF

37. Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

Author

Tradowsky, Jordis S., Philip, Sjoukje Y., Kreienkamp, Frank, Kew, Sarah F., Lorenz, Philip, Arrighi, Julie, Bettmann, Thomas, Caluwaerts, Steven, Chan, Steven C., De Cruz, Lesley, de Vries, Hylke, Demuth, Norbert, Ferrone, Andrew, Fischer, Erich M., Fowler, Hayley J., Görgen, Klaus, Heinrich, Dorothy, Henrichs, Yvonne, Kaspar, Frank, Lenderink, Geert, Nilson, Enno, Otto, Friederike E. L., Ragone, Francesco, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Singh, Roop K., Skålevåg, Amalie, Termonia, Piet, Thalheimer, Lisa, van Aalst, Maarten, Van den Bergh, Joris, Van de Vyver, Hans, Vannitsem, Stéphane, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Van Schaeybroeck, Bert, Vautard, Robert, Vonk, Demi, Wanders, Niko, and UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate

Subjects
ddc:550
Abstract

Climatic change 176(7), 90 (2023). doi:10.1007/s10584-023-03502-7, Published by Springer Science + Business Media B.V, Dordrecht [u.a.]

Published
2023

41. Attributing and Projecting Heatwaves Is Hard: We Can Do Better

Author

Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, primary, Wehner, Michael F., additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Otto, Friederike E. L., additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Stott, Peter A., additional, Hegerl, Gabriele C., additional, Philip, Sjoukje Y., additional, and Kew, Sarah F., additional

Published
2022
Full Text
View/download PDF

43. Limited role of climate change in extreme low rainfall associated with southern Madagascar food insecurity, 2019–21

Author

Harrington, Luke J, Wolski, Piotr, Pinto, Izidine, Ramarosandratana, Anzelà Mamiarisoa, Barimalala, Rondrotiana, Vautard, Robert, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Singh, Roop, Heinrich, Dorothy, Arrighi, Julie, Raju, Emmanuel, Thalheimer, Lisa, Razanakoto, Thierry, Van Aalst, Maarten, Li, Sihan, Bonnet, Remy, Yang, Wenchang, Otto, Friederike E L, Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Harrington, Luke J, Wolski, Piotr, Pinto, Izidine, Ramarosandratana, Anzelà Mamiarisoa, Barimalala, Rondrotiana, Vautard, Robert, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Singh, Roop, Heinrich, Dorothy, Arrighi, Julie, Raju, Emmanuel, Thalheimer, Lisa, Razanakoto, Thierry, Van Aalst, Maarten, Li, Sihan, Bonnet, Remy, Yang, Wenchang, Otto, Friederike E L, and Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan

Abstract

Southern Madagascar recently experienced a severe food security crisis, made significantly worse by well below average rainfall from July 2019 to June 2021. This exceptional drought has affected a region with high pre-existing levels of vulnerability to food insecurity (subsistence agriculture and pastoralism in the region is rain-fed only), while impacts have been compounded further by COVID-19 restrictions and pest infestations. The rainy seasons of both 2019/20 and 2020/21 saw just 60% of normal rainfall across the Grand South region and was estimated as a 1-in-135 year dry event, only surpassed in severity by the devastating drought of 1990–92. Based on a combination of observations and climate modelling, the likelihood of experiencing such poor rains in the region was not significantly increased due to human-caused climate change: while the observations and models combine to indicate a small shift toward more droughts like the 2019–2021 event as a consequence of climate change, these trends remain overwhelmed by natural variability. This result is consistent with previous research, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Sixth Assessment Report concluding that any perceptible changes in drought will only emerge in this region if global mean temperatures exceed 2 °C above pre-industrial levels

Published
2022

44. Food crisis in Central Sahel in 2022 driven by chronic vulnerability with uncertain role of climate change

Author

Brouillet, Audrey, Sultan, Benjamin, Barnes, Clair, Zacharia, Mariam, Otto, Friederike E. L., Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Guigma , Kiswendsida, Heinrich, Dorothy, Kane, Cheik, van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Koren, Gerbrand, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Yang, Wenchang, Vautard, Robert, Brouillet, Audrey, Sultan, Benjamin, Barnes, Clair, Zacharia, Mariam, Otto, Friederike E. L., Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Guigma , Kiswendsida, Heinrich, Dorothy, Kane, Cheik, van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Koren, Gerbrand, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Yang, Wenchang, and Vautard, Robert

Published
2022

45. Causality and the fate of climate litigation:The role of the social superstructure narrative

Author

Otto, Friederike E. L., Minnerop, Petra, Raju, Emmanuel, Harrington, Luke J., Stuart-Smith, Rupert F., Boyd, Emily, James, Rachel, Jones, Richard G., Lauta, Kristian Cedervall, Otto, Friederike E. L., Minnerop, Petra, Raju, Emmanuel, Harrington, Luke J., Stuart-Smith, Rupert F., Boyd, Emily, James, Rachel, Jones, Richard G., and Lauta, Kristian Cedervall

Published
2022

46. Climate Change made devastating early heat in India and Pakistan 30 times more likely

Author

Zachariah, Mariam, Arulalan, T., AchutaRao, Krishna, Saeed, Fahad, Jha, Roshan, Dhasmana, Manish Kumar, Mondal, Arpita, Bonnet, Remy, Vautard, Robert, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Heinrich, Dorothy, Thalheimer, Lisa, Marghidan, Carolina Pereira, Kapoor, Aditi, van Aalst, Maarten, Raju, Emmanuel, lI, Sihan, Sun, Jingru, Vecchi, Gabriel, Yang, Wenchang, Hauser, Mathias, Schumacher, Dominik L., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Harrington, Luke J., Otto, Friederike E. L., Zachariah, Mariam, Arulalan, T., AchutaRao, Krishna, Saeed, Fahad, Jha, Roshan, Dhasmana, Manish Kumar, Mondal, Arpita, Bonnet, Remy, Vautard, Robert, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Heinrich, Dorothy, Thalheimer, Lisa, Marghidan, Carolina Pereira, Kapoor, Aditi, van Aalst, Maarten, Raju, Emmanuel, lI, Sihan, Sun, Jingru, Vecchi, Gabriel, Yang, Wenchang, Hauser, Mathias, Schumacher, Dominik L., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Harrington, Luke J., and Otto, Friederike E. L.

Published
2022

48. Factors Other Than Climate Change, Main Drivers of 2014/15 Water Shortage in Southeast Brazil

Author

Otto, Friederike E. L, Coelho, Caio A. S, King, Andrew, Coughlan de Perez, Erin, Wada, Yoshihide, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Haarsma, Rein, Haustein, Karsten, Uhe, Peter, van Aalst, Maarten, Aravequia, Jose Antonio, Almeida, Waldenio, and Cullen, Heidi

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

Southeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2014/15. Anthropogenic climate change is not found to be a major influence on the hazard, whereas increasing population and water consumption increased vulnerability.

Published
2015
Full Text
View/download PDF

Catalog

Books, media, physical & digital resources
See catalog results