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The factors which significantly affect the viticulture are temperature and precipitation. Consequently, viticulture is highly affected by climate change. The agroclimatic indices describe the suitability of particular region for wine production. For the purpose of this study six indices (Average growing season temperature, Growing degree days, Huglin index, Dryness index, Cool night index and Composite index) were calculated using daily output from three CORDEX Regional Climate Models’ (RCMs) simulations (CLMcom-CCLM4-8-17, SMHI-RCA4, CNRM-ALADIN5.3) for Croatian domain and using daily near-surface measurements (minimum, maximum and mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and total precipitation). All RCMs are forced by Global Climate Models (GCMs) with a moderate (RCP4.5) and a high-end (RCP8.5) greenhouse gass (GHG) scenario. All the simulations have horizontal grid spacing of 0.11◦. First historical analysis was done comparing two periods (1961-1990 and 1988-2017) to establish present situation and to determine changes in indices so far. Then, in order to determine future changes in agroclimatic indices, spatial distribution of the indices in historical runs (1971-2000) is compared to three different 30-year periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2070-2099). The sign and the robustness of future changes depend on the location/region analyzed. The results revealed good skill of the RCM in simulating bioclimatic characteristics. The results also show, whether the part of the country, which is suitable for grape cultivation in present climate (1971-2000) continues to be favorable in the future. We can also reveal whether some other parts of Croatia become suitable for cultivating grapevine in the future climate.

Vinogradarstvo i vinarstvo među najvažnijim su poljoprivrednim i gospodarskim djelatnostima u Hrvatskoj. Vinova loza (Vitis vinifera L.) klimatski je osjetljiva kultura, jer na njen rast i razvoj uvelike utječu prevladavajući atmosferski uvjeti. Optimalni klimatski uvjeti za rast vinove loze ograničeni su zemljopisno, te se uobičajeno smatra da su najpogodnija područja za njezin uzgoj između 30° i 50° paralele sjeverne i južne geografske širine. Gledajući kroz sektor vinogradarstva i vinarstva, agroklimatski indeksi su metode kojima se određuju zemljopisna područja i njihova pogodnost za uzgoj određene sorte vinove loze, a pomoću njih se izrađuju karte vinogradarskih područja. Utjecaj klime na vinogradarsko zoniranje procijenjen je na temelju projekcija vrijednosti agroklimatskih indeksa poput Huglinovog indeksa, indeksa sume efektivnih temperatura prema Winkleru, indeksa hladnih noći i indeksa prosječne temperature zraka u vegetaciji. U Hrvatskoj je prva podjela na vinogradarske zone vezana uz izradu regionalizacije vinogradarskih područja početkom 70-tih godina 20. stoljeća. Tadašnja podjela vinogradarskih zona napravljena je sukladno međunarodnim standardima i preporukama OIV-a te Lisabonskom sporazumu iz 1958. godine, a prema kojima su „zone proizvodnje rezultat prirodnih čimbenika i pri čemu klimatske prilike igraju prvenstvenu ulogu“. Prema sumi efektivnih temperatura, današnja vinorodna područja u Europi podijeljena su na klimatske zone: A, B, C I, C II, C IIIa i C IIIb. Ulaskom Hrvatske u Europsku uniju, vinogradarske zone u Hrvatskoj podijeljene su na B, C I i C II zonu. Rezultati najnovijih istraživanja te izračuni modela za projekciju buduće klime ukazuju na prisutnost klimatskih promjena i značajan porast temperature zraka, što podupire hipotezu o nužnosti revidiranja svih vinogradarskih zona u Hrvatskoj.

Monitoring the temperature within the vineyard during the season is important for controling the maturation and planing various production activities in the vineyard. The study displays a description of the spatial variability of the temperature within the vineyard, since it has a strong effect on grape ripening and quality of the grapes. The goal of this study was to collect detailed temperature measurements at the two locations within the vineyard and to estimate temperature sensitivity at the vineyard scale. The results show that there is a great temperature variability within the vineyard and thus the need for system of zonal vineyard management. Rather than being managed uniformly, individual block can be split into zones in which management can be applied differentely.

Climate conditions are one of the most important factors affecting wine, determining whether an area is suitable for planting of a vineyard, and how will express its quality potential.Based on natural conditions, Croatia is divided into viticulture regions: Eastern Continental Croatia, Western Continental Croatia and Coastal Croatia. According to the sum of effective temperatures in the vegetative period, region Coastal Croatia is located in climatic zone CII (1941 to 2220 ºC). According to the official data of Payment Agency for Agriculture, Fisheries and Rural Development, the most important red wine variety in Croatia is Plavac mali, indigenous variety of Croatia with extraordinary quality potential. In this paper, data from the meteorological stations of the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Agriculture (periods from 1961 to 2014), trends over 30 year periods (1961-1990, 1988-2017) and agroclimatic indices: Growing degree-days (GDD or WI) and Heliothermal index (HI) will be presented.During the harvest in 2016 and 2017, we collected samples of grapes in chosen vineyards throughout the region. Clusters and grape berries were measured and weighed, and by analyzing the must we obtained values of sugar concetration, acidity and pH.The results of this study will be used to evaluate the suitability of potential wine growing areas for cultivation of variety Plavac mali, and to compare it with its current distribution in the region of Coastal Croatia.

Climate is one of the main factors controlling grapevine production and this relationship is usually explored by the agroclimatic indices. In this study these indices were calculated for Croatian territory from measured and simulated data. First, six indices (i.e. Average growing season temperature, Growing degree days, Huglin index, Dryness index, Cool night index and Composite index) and evapotranspiration by FAO Penman-Monteith method were calculated using daily near-surface measurements (minimum, maximum and mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and total precipitation) from numerous land-based stations from 1961 to 2016. Due to better comparison, results are shown for two 30-year periods, 1961-1990 and 1987-2016. The aim is to categorize grapevine growing region climates of Croatia and to see changes in present climate comparing with period 1961-1990. Afterwards, simulated data from three CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCM) (CLMcom-CCLM4-8-17, SMHI-RCA4, CNRM-ALADIN5.3) at 0.11° grid spacing have been explored. All simulations are forced by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis for three different periods: 1981-2010 for SMHI-RCA4, 1981-2008 for CNRM-ALADIN5.3 and 1991-2008 for CLMcom-CLM4-8-17. The evaluation has been done for (i) the meteorological variables and (ii) agroclimatic indices using the standard statistical parameters (e.g. bias, RMSD, corelation, etc.). For each approach we show model-measurements in-situ comparison (using the near-neighbors method) and comparison relevant for each region. The second approach was done because of the great variety of climatic characteristics of Croatia. Both approaches revealed good skill of the RCM in simulating bioclimatic characteristics in Croatia. The results also pointed to the categorization of grepevine growing region climates of Croatia and changes in present climate comparing two periods 1961-1990 vs 1987-2016. They are also base for estimating future changes in grapevine growing regions climates of Croatia.

U ovom radu analizirana je vremenska situacija za vrijeme dva šumska požara na poluotoku Pelješcu. Požari su namjerno izazvani u noći s 20. na 21. srpanj 2015. Cilj je rada proučiti vremensku situaciju koja je uz ljudski čimbenik dovela do početka požara. Analizirani meteorološki podaci s najbliže glavne meteorološke postaje Ploče pokazali su da je srpanj 2015. bio najtopliji mjesec u razdoblju 1981.–2014. U srpnju je bilo 30 vrućih dana što je dvostruko više od prosjeka. Izostanak oborine i ekstremno topao srpanj pridonijeli su tome da dođe do najgoreg mogućeg požara, požara krošnji. Produkti modela ALADIN za vrijeme šumskog požara su pokazali malo sniženi tlaka zraka nad južnim Jadranom, a topao zrak se protezao sve do 1 km u vis. Vrijeme je bilo pretežno vedro, na sam dan izbijanja požara izmjerena je u Kuni i apsolutna vrijednost temperature 38.8 °C, a i idućih se dana maksimalna temperatura nije spuštala ispod 30°C na Pelješcu. Relativna vlažnost zraka tijekom dana najčešće je iznosila oko 40%. U noći kada su požari podmetnuti vjetar je bio slab. Indeks meteorološke opasnosti od šumskog požara FWI tijekom svih dana požara bio je vrlo velik, ali to je i očekivano za vrijeme sezone požara. Dugotrajno suho i vrlo vruće vrijeme koje je prethodilo šumskim požarima te vrlo strmi teren poluotoka Pelješca su pogodovali vrlo brzom širenju požara, otežavali gašenje požara što je ugrozilo ljudske živote i stambene objekte.

Ovaj rad bavi se proučavanjem utjecaja meteoroloških uvjeta na trendove početka određenih fenoloških faza vinove loze. U tu svrhu koristili su se osnovni agroklimatološki indeksi GDD i GST. Također, upotrebom statističkih modela simulirali su se nastupi fenoloških faza pupanja, cvatnje, šare i berbe. Statistički pristup kombiniran je i primjenom modela za rast biljaka (model STICS). Sam model STICS testiran je na mjerenjima za dvije sorte vinove loze (’Graševina’ i ’Plavac mali’) i na četiri lokacije; dvije smještene u unutrašnjosti Hrvatske (Daruvar i Križevci) te na dvijema uz obalu Jadrana (Hvar i Lastovo). Uspješnost statističkog modela na temelju akumulirane topline pokazala se vrlo dobrom za sve postaje za berbu kao i za cvatnju, osim postaje Hvar. Lošiji rezultati dobili su se za šaru na gotovo svim postajama te za pupanje izuzev postaje Daruvar. Višestruka linearna regresija pokazala je manju uspješnost. Prilikom mjerenja model STICS pokazao je zadovoljavajuće rezultate na tri od četiri promatrane postaje. Model STICS primijenjen je i na izlazne rezultate klimatskog modela koji je dao rezultate u dva razdoblja: 1999.-2009. godine te 2043.-2053. godine. Navedeni model pokazao se učinkovitim i samim time primjenjivim za simulaciju nastupa fenoloških faza. Uz navedeno, simulirao je i raniji nastup fenofaza u budućoj klimi za gotovo sve postaje. This paper deals with analyzing the influence of meteorological conditions on the starting trends of certain phenological phases of grapevine. For this purpose, the basic agroclimatic indexes GDD and GST were used. In addition, the occurances of different phenological phases, that being budding, flowering, veraisoning and harvesting, were also simulated using statistical models. This statistical approach is also combined with the application of a plant growth model (STICS model). The STICS model itself was tested on measurements for two grapevine varieties (’Graševina’ and ’Plavac mali’) and on four locations; two of which were located in the interior of Croatia (Daruvar and Križevci), while the other two were on the Adriatic coast (Hvar and Lastovo). The success of the statistical model based on accumulated heat was proven to be very good for all harvesting and flowering stations, except for the Hvar station. Worse results were obtained for chara at almost all stations, as well as for budding, with the exception of the Daruvar station. Multiple linear regression showed less success. During the measuring process, the STICS model showed satisfactory results at three of the four observed stations. The STICS model was also applied to the output results of the climate model, which produced results in two periods: 1999-2009. and 2043-2053. The mentioned model was proven to be effective and therefore applicable for simulations of the performance of different phenological phases. In addition, it simulated the earlier occurrence of phenophases in the future climate for almost all stations.