Search

The Extreme Universe Space Observatory on a Super Pressure Balloon 2 (EUSO-SPB2) flew on May 13$^{\text{th}}$ and 14$^{\text{th}}$ of 2023. Consisting of two novel optical telescopes, the payload utilized next-generation instrumentation for the observations of extensive air showers from near space. One instrument, the fluorescence telescope (FT) searched for Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays (UHECRs) by recording the atmosphere below the balloon in the near-UV with a 1~$\mu$s time resolution using 108 multi-anode photomultiplier tubes with a total of 6,912 channels. Validated by pre-flight measurements during a field campaign, the energy threshold was estimated around 2~EeV with an expected event rate of approximately 1 event per 10 hours of observation. Based on the limited time afloat, the expected number of UHECR observations throughout the flight is between 0 and 2. Consistent with this expectation, no UHECR candidate events have been found. The majority of events appear to be detector artifacts that were not rejected properly due to a shortened commissioning phase. Despite the earlier-than-expected termination of the flight, data were recorded which provide insights into the detectors stability in the near-space environment as well as the diffuse ultraviolet emissivity of the atmosphere, both of which are impactful to future experiments.

The second generation of the Extreme Universe Space Observatory on a Super Pressure Balloon (EUSO-SPB2) is a balloon instrument that searched for ultra high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) with energies above 1 EeV and very high energy neutrinos with energies above 1 PeV. EUSO-SPB2 consists of two telescopes: a fluorescence telescope pointed downward for the detection of UHECRs and a Cherenkov telescope toward the limb for the detection of PeV-scale showers produced by neutrino-sourced tau decay (just below the limb) and by cosmic rays (just above the limb). Clouds inside the fields of view of these telescopes--particularly that of the fluorescence telescope--reduce EUSO-SPB2's geometric aperture. As such, cloud coverage and cloud-top altitude within the field of view of the fluorescence telescope must be monitored throughout data-taking. The University of Chicago Infrared Camera (UCIRC2) monitored these clouds using two infrared cameras centered at 10 and 12 $\mu$m. By capturing images at wavelengths spanning the cloud thermal emission peak, UCIRC2 measured cloud color-temperatures and thus cloud-top altitudes. In this contribution, we provide an overview of UCIRC2, including an update on its construction and performance. We also show first results from the flight., Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, proceedings of the 38th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC 2023). arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2112.09618, arXiv:1909.02663

The Probe Of Extreme Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (POEMMA) was designed as a NASA Astrophysics probe-class mission to identify the sources of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) and observe cosmic neutrinos from extremely energetic transient sources. POEMMA consists of two identical spacecraft flying in a loose formation at 525 km altitude oriented to view a common atmospheric volume and to provide full-sky coverage for both types of messengers. Each spacecraft hosts a wide field of view Schmidt telescope with a hybrid focal plane optimized to observe both the UV fluorescence signal from extensive air showers (EASs) and the optical Cherenkov signals from EASs. When in stereo close to nadir mode, POEMMA can measure the spectrum, composition, and full-sky distribution of the UHECRs above 20 EeV and be sensitive to UHE neutrinos. When pointing just below the Earth's limb, POEMMA will be sensitive to cosmic tau neutrinos above 20 PeV by observing the Cherenkov radiation of EASs produced by upward-moving tau decays, induced from tau neutrino interactions in the Earth. POEMMA is designed to quickly re-orient to follow a Target-of-Opportunity (ToO) neutrino transient from astrophysical sources with exceptional sensitivity to neutrinos from both short-duration transients, such as short-gamma-ray bursts (sGRBs), and long-duration sources, such as binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. Here we review the POEMMA mission and discuss the recent progress towards its technical readiness provided by the Mini-EUSO and EUSO-SPB2 missions and the forthcoming Terzina and POEMMA-Balloon-Radio missions, Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, Proceeding 38th ICRC 2023 Nagoya, Japan. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1909.09466

Observing ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECR) and very high energy (VHE) neutrinos from space is a promising way to measure their extremely low fluxes by significantly increasing the observed volume. The Extreme Universe Space Observatory on a Super Pressure Balloon 2 (EUSO-SPB2), the next, most advanced pathfinder for such a mission, was launched May 13th 2023 from Wanaka New Zealand. The pioneering EUSO-SPB2 payload flew a Fluorescence Telescope (FT) with a PMT camera pointed in nadir to record fluorescence light from cosmic ray extensive air shower (EAS) with energies above 1 EeV, and a Cherenkov telescope (CT) with a silicon photomultiplier focal surface for observing Cherenkov emission of cosmic ray EAS with energies above 1 PeV with an above-the-limb geometry and of PeV-scale EAS initiated by neutrino-sourced tau decay. As the CT is a novel instrument, optical background measurements for space neutrino observation are an important goal of the mission. Any data collected during the mission will influence and improve the development of a space-based multi-messenger observatory such as the Probe of Extreme Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (POEMMA). We present an overview of the EUSO-SPB2 mission and its science goals and summarize results as available, from the 2023 flight., Comment: Proceeding 38th ICRC 2023 Nagoya, Japan

Using the Earth as a neutrino converter, tau neutrino fluxes from astrophysical point sources can be detected by tau-lepton-induced extensive air showers (EASs). Both muon neutrino and tau neutrino induced upward-going EAS signals can be detected by terrestrial, sub-orbital and satellite-based instruments. The sensitivity of these neutrino telescopes can be evaluated with the nuSpaceSim package, which includes the nuPyProp simulation package. The nuPyProp package propagates neutrinos ($\nu_\mu$, $\nu_\tau$) through the Earth to produce the corresponding charged leptons (muons and tau-leptons). We use nuPyProp to quantify the uncertainties from Earth density models, tau depolarization effects and photo-nuclear electromagnetic energy loss models in the charged lepton exit probabilities and their spectra. The largest uncertainties come from electromagnetic energy loss modeling, with as much as a 20-50% difference between the models. We compare nuPyProp results with other simulation package results., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, Proceedings for International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC) 2023

Ultra-high-energy neutrinos serve as messengers of some of the highest energy astrophysical environments. Given that neutrinos are neutral and only interact via weak interactions, neutrinos can emerge from sources, traverse astronomical distances, and point back to their origins. Their weak interactions require large target volumes for neutrino detection. Using the Earth as a neutrino converter, terrestrial, sub-orbital, and satellite-based instruments are able to detect signals of neutrino-induced extensive air showers. In this paper, we describe the software code $\texttt{nuPyProp}$ that simulates tau neutrino and muon neutrino interactions in the Earth and predicts the spectrum of the $\tau$-lepton and muons that emerge. The $\texttt{nuPyProp}$ outputs are lookup tables of charged lepton exit probabilities and energies that can be used directly or as inputs to the $\texttt{nuSpaceSim}$ code designed to simulate optical and radio signals from extensive air showers induced by the emerging charged leptons. We describe the inputs to the code, demonstrate its flexibility and show selected results for $\tau$-lepton and muon exit probabilities and energy distributions. The $\texttt{nuPyProp}$ code is open source, available on Github., Comment: 42 pages, 21 figures, fixed typo in one of the author's name. Code available at https://github.com/NuSpaceSim/nupyprop

Cosmic Probes of Fundamental Physics take two primary forms: Very high energy particles (cosmic rays, neutrinos, and gamma rays) and gravitational waves. Already today, these probes give access to fundamental physics not available by any other means, helping elucidate the underlying theory that completes the Standard Model. The last decade has witnessed a revolution of exciting discoveries such as the detection of high-energy neutrinos and gravitational waves. The scope for major developments in the next decades is dramatic, as we detail in this report., Comment: Report of theTopical Group on Cosmic Probes of Fundamental Physics, for the U.S. decadal Particle Physics Planning Exercise (Snowmass 2021)

The second generation of the Extreme Universe Space Observatory on a Super Pressure Balloon (EUSO-SPB2) is a balloon instrument for the detection of ultra high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) with energies above 1 EeV and very high energy neutrinos with energies above 10 PeV. EUSO-SPB2 consists of two telescopes: a fluorescence telescope pointed downward for the detection of UHECRs and a Cherenkov telescope pointed towards the limb for the detection of tau lepton-induced showers produced by up-going tau neutrinos and background signals below the limb. Clouds inside the field of view of these telescopes reduce EUSO-SPB2's geometric aperture, in particular that of the fluorescence telescope. For this reason, cloud coverage and cloud-top altitude within the field of view of the fluorescence telescope must be monitored throughout data-taking. The University of Chicago Infrared Camera (UCIRC2) will monitor these clouds using two infrared cameras with response centered at wavelengths 10 and 12 microns. By capturing images at wavelengths spanning the cloud thermal emission peak, UCIRC2 will measure cloud color-temperatures and thus cloud-top altitudes. In this contribution, we provide an overview of UCIRC2, including an update on its construction and a discussion of the techniques used to calibrate the instrument., Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, proceedings of the 37th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC 2021). arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1909.02663

The Extreme Universe Space Observatory - Super Pressure Balloon (EUSO-SPB2) mission will fly two custom telescopes that feature Schmidt optics to measure \v{C}erenkov- and fluorescence-emission of extensive air-showers from cosmic rays at the PeV and EeV-scale, and search for tau-neutrinos. Both telescopes have 1-meter diameter apertures and UV/UV-visible sensitivity. The \v{C}erenkov telescope uses a bifocal mirror segment alignment, to distinguish between a direct cosmic ray that hits the camera versus the \v{C}erenkov light from outside the telescope. Telescope integration and laboratory calibration will be performed in Colorado. To estimate the point spread function and efficiency of the integrated telescopes, a test beam system that delivers a 1-meter diameter parallel beam of light is being fabricated. End-to-end tests of the fully integrated instruments will be carried out in a field campaign at dark sites in the Utah desert using cosmic rays, stars, and artificial light sources. Laser tracks have long been used to characterize the performance of fluorescence detectors in the field. For EUSO-SPB2 an improvement in the method that includes a correction for aerosol attenuation is anticipated by using a bi-dynamic Lidar configuration in which both the laser and the telescope are steerable. We plan to conduct these field tests in Fall 2021 and Spring 2022 to accommodate the scheduled launch of EUSO-SPB2 in 2023 from Wanaka, New Zealand.

The evidence for dark matter particles, $\chi$, is compelling based on Galactic to cosmological scale observations. Thus far, the promising weakly interacting massive particle scenario have eluded detection, motivating alternative models of dark matter. We consider scenarios involving superheavy dark matter (SHDM) that potentially can decay or annihilate to neutrinos and antineutrinos. In the mass range $m_\chi=10^7-10^{15}\,{\rm GeV}$, we evaluate the sensitivities of future observatories POEMMA and GRAND for indirect dark matter detection via the measurement of neutrino-induced extensive air showers (EAS), compute the Auger and ANITA limits using their last up-to-date sensitivities, and compare them with IceCube limits. We also show that the uncertainties related to the dark matter distribution in the Galactic halo have a large impact on the neutrino flux. We show that a ground-based radio detector such as GRAND can achieve high sensitivities due to its large effective area and high duty cycle. Space-based Cherenkov detectors such as POEMMA that measure the EAS optical Cherenkov signal have the advantage of full-sky coverage and rapid slewing, enabling an optimized SHDM observation strategy focusing on the Galactic Center. We show that increasing the field of view of the Cherenkov detectors can significantly enhance the sensitivity. Moreover, POEMMA's fluorescence observation mode that measures EAS above $20\,$EeV will achieve state-of-the-art sensitivity to SHDM properties at the highest mass scales., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, Proceedings of the 37th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC 2021)

Recent theoretical work has explored dark matter accumulation in the Earth and its drift towards the center of the Earth that, for the current age of the Earth, does not necessarily result in a concentration of dark matter ($\chi$) in the Earth's core. We consider a scenario of long-lived ($\tau_\chi\sim 10^{28}$ s), super heavy ($m_\chi=10^7-10^{10}$ GeV) dark matter that decays via $\chi\to \nu_\tau \bar{\nu}_\tau$ or $\chi\to \nu_\mu \bar{\nu}_\mu$. We show that an IceCube-like detector over 10 years can constrain a dark matter density that mirrors the Earth's density or has a uniform density with density fraction $\epsilon_\rho$ combined with the partial decay width $B_{\chi\to \nu_\tau \bar{\nu}_\tau}\Gamma_\chi$ in the range of $(\epsilon_\rho/10^{-10}) B_{\chi\to \nu_\tau}\Gamma_\chi \lesssim 1.5\times 10^{-29}-1.5\times 10^{-28}$ s$^{-1}$. For $\chi\to \nu_\mu \bar{\nu}_\mu$, $m_\chi = 10^8-10^{10}$ GeV and $E_\mu>10^7$ GeV, the range of constraints is $(\epsilon_\rho/10^{-10}) B_{\chi\to \nu_\mu}\Gamma_\chi \lesssim 3\times 10^{-29}-7\times 10^{-28}$ s$^{-1}$., Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, matching version accepted for publication in Physical Review D

High to ultrahigh energy neutrino detectors can uniquely probe the properties of dark matter $\chi$ by searching for the secondary products produced through annihilation and/or decay processes. We evaluate the sensitivities to dark matter thermally averaged annihilation cross section $\langle\sigma v\rangle$ and partial decay width into neutrinos $\Gamma_{\chi\rightarrow\nu\bar{\nu}}$ (in the mass scale $10^7 \leq m_\chi/{\rm GeV} \leq 10^{15}$) for next generation observatories like POEMMA and GRAND. We show that in the range $ 10^7 \leq m_\chi/{\rm GeV} \leq 10^{11}$, space-based Cherenkov detectors like POEMMA have the advantage of full-sky coverage and rapid slewing, enabling an optimized dark matter observation strategy focusing on the Galactic center. We also show that ground-based radio detectors such as GRAND can achieve high sensitivities and high duty cycles in radio quiet areas. We compare the sensitivities of next generation neutrino experiments with existing constraints from IceCube and updated 90\% C.L. upper limits on $\langle\sigma v\rangle$ and $\Gamma_{\chi\rightarrow\nu\bar{\nu}}$ using results from the Pierre Auger Collaboration and ANITA. We show that in the range $ 10^7 \leq m_\chi/{\rm GeV} \leq 10^{11}$ POEMMA and GRAND10k will improve the neutrino sensitivity to particle dark matter by factors of 2 to 10 over existing limits, whereas GRAND200k will improve this sensitivity by two orders of magnitude. In the range $10^{11} \leq m_\chi/{\rm GeV} \leq 10^{15}$, POEMMA's fluorescence observation mode will achieve an unprecedented sensitivity to dark matter properties. Finally, we highlight the importance of the uncertainties related to the dark matter distribution in the Galactic halo, using the latest fit and estimates of the Galactic parameters., Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures, accepted to PRD

At any epoch, particle physics must be open to completely unexpected discoveries, and that is reason enough to extend the reach of searches for ultra-high energy (UHE) photons. The observation of a population of photons with energies $E \gtrsim 100$ EeV would for example imply the existence of either a completely new physical phenomena, or particle acceleration mechanisms heretofore never seen or imagined. But as we outline in this Letter of Interest, there are also good arguments for super-heavy dark matter (SHDM) in a parameter range such that it could be discovered via its decays to, in particular, UHE photons. Only ultra-high energy cosmic ray observatories have capabilities to detect UHE photons. We first investigate how current and future observations can probe and constrain SHDM models in important directions, and then outline some of the scenarios that motivate such searches. We also discuss connections between constraints on SHDM and on the parameter values of cosmological models., Comment: SNOWMASS 2021 LoI. Accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physics

We compare two different formalisms for modeling the energy deposition of macroscopically sized/massive quark nuggets (a.k.a. macros) in the Earth's atmosphere. We show that for a reference mass of 1 g, there is a discrepancy in the macro luminosity of about 14 orders of magnitude between the predictions of the two formalisms. Armed with our finding we estimate the sensitivity for macro detection at space-based (Mini-EUSO and POEMMA) and suborbital (EUSO-SPB2) experiments., Comment: 5 pages revtex, 3 figures

Macroscopic dark matter (or macro) provides a broad class of alternative candidates to particle dark matter. These candidates would transfer energy primarily through elastic scattering, and this linear energy deposition would produce observable signals if a macro were to traverse the atmosphere. We study the fluorescence emission produced by a macro passing through the atmosphere. We estimate the sensitivity of EUSO-SPB2 to constrain the two-dimensional parameter space ($\sigma$ vs. $M$), where $M$ is the macro mass and $\sigma$ its cross sectional area., Comment: To be published in the Proceedings of the 37th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC 2012), Berlin, 12 -23 July 2021

We describe the design and implementation of the University of Chicago Infrared Camera 2 (UCIRC2) built for monitoring cloud coverage during the EUSO-SPB2 flight (the second generation of the Extreme Universe Space Observatory on a Super Pressure Balloon). UCIRC2 uses two infrared (IR) cameras centered on 10$\mu$m and 12$\mu$m wavelengths to capture images of the clouds beneath EUSO-SPB2 in two bands spanning the thermal emission peak. Taken every minute, the IR images allow the determination of the height and coverage of clouds between the telescope and the ground. We discuss the design and construction of UCIRC2, including the techniques and design principles that make the module temperature and vacuum resilient. Additionally, we delineate the image reconstruction process and the pixel by pixel temperature calibration procedure. This paper will posit design and implementation suggestions for future ultra-high energy space telescopes., Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, proceedings of the 36th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC 2019)

Cosmic neutrinos above a PeV are produced either within astrophysical sources or when ultra-high energy cosmic rays interact in transit through the cosmic background radiation. Detection of these neutrinos will be essential for understanding cosmic ray acceleration, composition and source evolution. By using the Earth as a tau neutrino converter for upward-going extensive air showers from tau decays, balloon-borne and space-based instruments can take advantage of a large volume and mass of the terrestrial neutrino target. The theoretical inputs and uncertainties in determining the tau lepton exit probabilities and their translation to detection acceptance will be discussed in the context of a new calculation we have performed. We quantify the experimental detection capability based on our calculation, including using the Probe of Extreme Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (POEMMA) concept study response parameters for optical air Cherenkov detection. These case studies are used to illustrate the features and uncertainties in upward tau air shower detection., Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, Proceedings of the 36th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC 2019), held July 24th - August 1st, 2019 in Madison, WI, USA

The Probe Of Extreme Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (POEMMA) is a potential NASA Astrophysics Probe-class mission designed to observe ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) and cosmic neutrinos from space. POEMMA will monitor colossal volumes of the Earth's atmosphere to detect extensive air showers (EASs) produced by extremely energetic cosmic messengers: UHECRs above 20 EeV over the full sky and cosmic neutrinos above 20 PeV. We focus most of this study on the impact of POEMMA for UHECR science by simulating the detector response and mission performance for EAS from UHECRs. We show that POEMMA will provide a significant increase in the statistics of observed UHECRs at the highest energies over the entire sky. POEMMA will be the first UHECR fluorescence detector deployed in space that will provide high-quality stereoscopic observations of the longitudinal development of air showers. Therefore, it will be able to provide event-by-event estimates of the calorimetric energy and nuclear mass of UHECRs. The particle physics in the interactions limits the interpretation of the shower maximum on an event by event basis. In contrast, the calorimetric energy measurement is significantly less sensitive to the different possible final states in the early interactions. We study the prospects to discover the origin and nature of UHECRs using expectations for measurements of the energy spectrum, the distribution of arrival direction, and the atmospheric column depth at which the EAS longitudinal development reaches maximum. We also explore supplementary science capabilities of POEMMA through its sensitivity to particle interactions at extreme energies and its ability to detect ultra-high energy neutrinos and photons produced by top-down models including cosmic strings and super-heavy dark matter particle decay in the halo of the Milky Way., Comment: 40 pages revtex, with 42 figures

We investigate the capability of the Probe Of Extreme Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (POEMMA) in performing Target-of-Opportunity (ToO) neutrino observations. POEMMA will detect tau neutrinos via Cherenkov radiation from their upward-moving extensive air showers. POEMMA will be able to quickly slew ($90^{\circ}$ in 500 s) to the direction of an astrophysical source, which in combination with its orbital speed will provide it with unparalleled capability to follow up transient alerts. We calculate POEMMA's transient sensitivity for two observational modes for its two satellites (ToO-stereo and ToO-dual) and investigate variations in neutrino sensitivity across the sky arising from POEMMA's orbit. We explore separate scenarios for long ($\sim 10^{6}$ s) and short ($\sim 10^3$ s) bursts, accounting for intrusion from the Sun and the Moon in long-duration scenarios. For long bursts, POEMMA will improve the average neutrino sensitivity above 300 PeV by up to a factor of 7 with respect to existing experiments (e.g., IceCube, ANTARES, and Pierre Auger), reaching the level of model predictions for neutrino fluences at these energies from several types of long-duration astrophysical transients (e.g., binary neutron star mergers and tidal disruption events). For short bursts in the optimal case, POEMMA will improve the sensitivity over existing experiments by at least an order of magnitude above 100 PeV. POEMMA's orbit and rapid slewing will provide access to the full celestial sky, including regions not accessible to ground-based experiments. Finally, we discuss the prospects for detecting neutrinos from candidate astrophysical neutrino sources in the nearby universe. Our results demonstrate that with its improved neutrino sensitivity at ultra-high energies and unique full-sky coverage, POEMMA will be an essential component in an expanding multi-messenger network., Comment: 39 pages (18.5 main + 20.5 appendices and references), 18 figures; submitted to Phys. Rev. D

We review open questions and prospects for progress in ultrahigh-energy cosmic ray (UHECR) research, based on a series of discussions that took place during the `The High-Energy Universe: Gamma-Ray, Neutrino, and Cosmic-ray Astronomy' MIAPP workshop in 2018. Specifically, we overview open questions on the origin of the bulk of UHECRs, the UHECR mass composition, the origin of the end of the cosmic-ray spectrum, the transition from Galactic to extragalactic cosmic rays, the effect of magnetic fields on the trajectories of UHECRs, anisotropy expectations for specific astrophysical scenarios, hadronic interactions, and prospects for discovering neutral particles as well as new physics at ultrahigh energies. We also briefly present upcoming and proposed UHECR experiments and discuss their projected science reach., Comment: 47 pages, 17 figures, Review to appear in "Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Science" special issue, "Multi-Messenger Astrophysics: New Windows to the Universe"

The sources of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) have been difficult to catch. It was recently pointed out that while sources of UHECR protons exhibit anisotropy patterns that become denser and compressed with rising energy, nucleus-emitting-sources give rise to a cepa stratis (onion-like) structure with layers that become more distant from the source position with rising energy. The peculiar shape of the hot spots from nucleus-accelerators is steered by the competition between energy loss during propagation and deflection on the Galactic magnetic field (GMF). Here, we run a full-blown simulation study to accurately characterize the deflections of UHECR nuclei in the GMF. We show that while the cepa stratis structure provides a global description of anisotropy patterns produced by UHECR nuclei en route to Earth, the hot spots are elongated depending on their location in the sky due to the regular structure of the GMF. We demonstrate that with a high-statistics sample at the high-energy-end of the spectrum, like the one to be collected by NASA's POEMMA mission, the energy dependence of the hot-spot contours could become a useful observable to identify the nuclear composition of UHECRs. This new method to determine the nature of the particle species is complementary to those using observables of extensive air showers, and therefore is unaffected by the large systematic uncertainties of hadronic interaction models., Comment: Matching version published in PRD

EUSO-SPB2 is a second generation Extreme Universe Space Observatory (EUSO) on a Super-Pressure Balloon (SPB). This document describes the physics capabilities, the proposed technical design of the instruments, and the simulation and analysis software., Comment: References added

High-energy cosmic rays can be accelerated in clusters of galaxies, by mega-parsec scale shocks induced by accretion of gas during the formation of large-scale structure, or by powerful sources harbored in clusters. Once accelerated, the highest energy particles leave the cluster via almost rectilinear trajectories, while lower energy ones can be confined by the cluster magnetic field up to cosmological time and interact with the intracluster gas. Using a realistic model of the baryon distribution and the turbulent magnetic field in clusters, we studied the propagation and hadronic interaction of high-energy protons in the intracluster medium. We report the cumulative cosmic ray and neutrino spectra generated by galaxy clusters including embedded sources, and demonstrate that clusters can contribute a significant fraction of the observed IceCube neutrinos above 30 TeV while remaining undetected in high-energy cosmic rays and $\gamma$ rays for reasonable choices of parameters and source scenarios., Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

Relativistic winds of fast-spinning pulsars have been proposed as a potential site for cosmic-ray acceleration from very high energies (VHE) to ultrahigh energies (UHE). We re-examine conditions for high-energy neutrino production, considering the interaction of accelerated particles with baryons of the expanding supernova ejecta and the radiation fields in the wind nebula. We make use of the current IceCube sensitivity in diffusive high-energy neutrino background, in order to constrain the parameter space of the most extreme neutron stars as sources of VHE and UHE cosmic rays. We demonstrate that the current non-observation of $10^{18}$ eV neutrinos put stringent constraints on the pulsar scenario. For a given model, birthrates, ejecta mass and acceleration efficiency of the magnetar sources can be constrained. When we assume a proton cosmic ray composition and spherical supernovae ejecta, we find that the IceCube limits almost exclude their significant contribution to the observed UHE cosmic-ray flux. Furthermore, we consider scenarios where a fraction of cosmic rays can escape from jet-like structures piercing the ejecta, without significant interactions. Such scenarios would enable the production of UHE cosmic rays and help remove the tension between their EeV neutrino production and the observational data., Comment: 23 pages, 8 figures; published in JCAP04(2016)010

The Telescope Array (TA) has observed a statistically significant excess in cosmic-rays with energies above 57 EeV in a region of approximately 1150 square degrees centered on coordinates (R.A. = 146.7, Dec. = 43.2). We note that the location of this excess correlates with two of the 28 extraterrestrial neutrinos recently observed by IceCube. The overlap between the two IceCube neutrinos and the TA excess is statistically significant at the 2$\sigma$ level. Furthermore, the spectrum and intensity of the IceCube neutrinos is consistent with a single source which would also produce the TA excess. Finally, we discuss possible source classes with the correct characteristics to explain the cosmic-ray and neutrino fluxes with a single source., Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

We investigate the neutrino - cosmic ray connection for sources in the Galaxy in terms of two observables: the shape of the energy spectrum and the distribution of arrival directions. We also study the associated gamma ray emission from these sources., Comment: Proceedings of the 2nd Cosmic Ray Anisotropy Workshop, 26-28 September 2013, Madison, Wisconsin. To appear in IOP Conference Series

Fast-spinning newborn pulsars are intriguing candidate sources of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays (UHECRs). The acceleration of particles with a given composition in a fraction of the extragalactic pulsar population can give a consistent explanation for the measurements of the Auger Observatory. We calculate the associated diffuse neutrino flux produced while particles cross the supernova ejecta surrounding the stars. We show that in the minimal pulsar scenario that are compatible with the UHECR data, the effective optical depth to hadronuclear interactions is larger than unity at ultrahigh energies. Thus, even in the most pessimistic case, one expects energy fluxes of $\sim 0.1 - 1 \,\rm EeV$ neutrinos that should be detectable with IceCube or Askaryan Radio Array within a decade., Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, combined published paper and appended erratum. Fig.3 has been corrected

We summarize the remarkable recent progress in ultra-high energy cosmic ray physics and astronomy enabled by the current generation of cosmic ray observatories. We discuss the primary objectives for future measurements and describe the plans for near-term enhancements of existing experiments as well as the next generation of observatories., Comment: 7 revtex pages, 1 figure (v2 author added, references added)

Very recently the IceCube Collaboration has reported an observation of 28 neutrino candidates with energies between 50 TeV and 2 PeV, constituting a 4.1$\sigma$ excess compared to the atmospheric background. In this article we investigate the compatibility between the data and a hypothesized unbroken power-law neutrino spectrum for various values of spectral index \Gamma >= 2. We show that \Gamma ~ 2.3 is consistent at the ~ 1.5$\sigma$ level with the observed events up to 2 PeV and to the null observation of events at higher energies. We then assume that the sources of this unbroken spectrum are Galactic, and deduce (i) an energy-transfer fraction from parent protons to pions, and (ii) a way of discriminating among models which have been put forth to explain the "knee" and "ankle" features of the cosmic ray spectrum. Future IceCube data will test the unbroken power law hypothesis and provide a multi-messenger approach to explaining features of the cosmic ray spectrum, including the transition from Galactic to extragalactic dominance., Comment: Matching version to be published in Physical Review D

The flux of ultra-high energy (UHE) cosmic rays (CRs) depends on the cosmic distribution of their sources. Data from CR observations are yet inconclusive about their exact location or distribution, but provide a measure for the average local density of these emitters. Due to the discreteness of the emitters the flux is expected to show ensemble fluctuations on top of the statistical variations, a reflection of the cosmic variance. This effect is strongest for the most energetic cosmic rays due to the limited propagation distance in the cosmic radiation background and is hence a local phenomenon. In this work we study the sensitivity of the JEM-EUSO space mission to ensemble fluctuations on the assumption of uniform distribution of sources, with local source density \sim 10^{-5} Mpc^{-3}. We show that in 3 years of observation JEM-EUSO will be able to probe ensemble fluctuations if the nearest sources are at 3 Mpc, and that after 10 years orbiting the Earth, this pathfinder mission will become sensitive to ensemble fluctuations if the nearest sources are 10 Mpc away. The study of spectral fluctuations from the local source distributions are complementary to but independent of cosmic ray anisotropy studies., Comment: To be published in Proceedings of the 33rd International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC2013), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2-9 July, 2013. Paper Id: 239

We explore the effect of pulsars, in particular those born with millisecond periods, on their surrounding supernova ejectas. While they spin down, fast-spinning pulsars release their tremendous rotational energy in the form of a relativistic magnetized wind that can affect the dynamics and luminosity of the supernova. We estimate the thermal and non thermal radiations expected from these specific objects, concentrating at times a few years after the onset of the explosion. We find that the bolometric light curves present a high luminosity plateau (that can reach $10^{43-44}\,$erg/s) over a few years. An equally bright TeV gamma-ray emission, and a milder X-ray peak (of order $10^{40-42}\,$erg/s) could also appear a few months to a few years after the explosion, as the pulsar wind nebula emerges, depending on the injection parameters. The observations of these signatures by following the emission of a large number of supernovae could have important implications for the understanding of core-collapse supernovae and reveal the nature of the remnant compact object., Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures, accepted by MNRAS

The acceleration of ultrahigh energy nuclei in fast spinning newborn pulsars can explain the observed spectrum of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays and the trend towards heavier nuclei for energies above $10^{19}\,$eV as reported by the Auger Observatory. Pulsar acceleration implies a hard injection spectrum ($\sim E^{-1}$) due to pulsar spin down and a maximum energy $E_{\rm max} \sim Z \, 10^{19}$ eV due to the limit on the spin rate of neutron stars. We have previously shown that the escape through the young supernova remnant softens the spectrum, decreases slightly the maximum energy, and generates secondary nuclei. Here we show that the distribution of pulsar birth periods and the effect of propagation in the interstellar and intergalactic media modifies the combined spectrum of all pulsars. By assuming a normal distribution of pulsar birth periods centered at 300 ms, we show that the contribution of extragalactic pulsar births to the ultrahigh energy cosmic ray spectrum naturally gives rise to a contribution to very high energy cosmic rays (VHECRs, between $10^{16}$ and $10^{18}$ eV) by Galactic pulsar births. The required injected composition to fit the observed spectrum depends on the absolute energy scale, which is uncertain, differing between Auger Observatory and Telescope Array. The contribution of Galactic pulsar births can also bridge the gap between predictions for cosmic ray acceleration in supernova remnants and the observed spectrum just below the ankle, depending on the composition of the cosmic rays that escape the supernova remnant and the diffusion behavior of VHECRs in the Galaxy., Comment: 21 pages, 5 figure, JCAP submitted

Recent international efforts have brought us closer to unveiling the century old mystery of the origin of cosmic rays. Cosmic ray, gamma ray, and neutrino observatories are reaching the necessary sensitivity to study the highest energy cosmic accelerators and to begin the use of cosmic particles to study particle interactions above laboratory energies. The number of known gamma-ray sources has increased by orders of magnitude. Possible cosmic ray sources have narrowed down with the confirmation of an ankle and the GZK-like spectral feature at the highest energies. Anisotropies in the distribution of arrival directions of cosmic rays at intermediate energies show a complex local neighborhood of the Galaxy. At the highest energies the dawn of particle astronomy is still challenging while composition related measurements point to a change in the composition or the interaction of cosmic rays at ultrahigh energies. A clear resolution of the ultrahigh energy mystery calls for a significant increase in statistics of cosmic ray and neutrino observations., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, Proceedings of the 32nd International Cosmic Ray Conference, Beijing, 2011

Newly-born pulsars offer favorable sites for the injection of heavy nuclei, and for their further acceleration to ultrahigh energies. Once accelerated in the pulsar wind, nuclei have to escape from the surrounding supernova envelope. We examine this escape analytically and numerically, and discuss the pulsar source scenario in light of the latest ultrahigh energy cosmic ray (UHECR) data. Our calculations show that, at early times, when protons can be accelerated to energies E>10^20 eV, the young supernova shell tends to prevent their escape. In contrast, because of their higher charge, iron-peaked nuclei are still accelerated to the highest observed energies at later times, when the envelope has become thin enough to allow their escape. Ultrahigh energy iron nuclei escape newly-born pulsars with millisecond periods and dipole magnetic fields of ~10^(12-13) G, embedded in core-collapse supernovae. Due to the production of secondary nucleons, the envelope crossing leads to a transition of composition from light to heavy elements at a few EeV, as observed by the Auger Observatory. The escape also results in a softer spectral slope than that initially injected via unipolar induction, which allows for a good fit to the observed UHECR spectrum. We conclude that the acceleration of iron-peaked elements in a reasonably small fraction (< 0.01%) of extragalactic rotation-powered young pulsars would reproduce satisfactorily the current UHECR data. Possible signatures of this scenario are also discussed., Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, accepted by ApJ

After a century of observations, we still do not know the origin of cosmic rays. I will review the current state of cosmic ray observations at the highest energies, and their implications for proposed acceleration models and secondary astroparticle fluxes. Possible sources have narrowed down with the confirmation of a GZK-like spectral feature. The anisotropy observed by the Pierre Auger Observatory may signal the dawn of particle astronomy raising hopes for high energy neutrino observations. However, composition related measurements point to a different interpretation. A clear resolution of this mystery calls for much larger statistics than the reach of current observatories., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, in the Proceedings of TAUP 2011

The observation of neutrinos from cosmic accelerators will be revolutionary. High energy neutrinos are closely connected to ultrahigh energy cosmic rays and their sources. Cosmic ray sources are likely to produce neutrinos and the propagation of ultrahigh cosmic rays from distant sources can generate PeV to ZeV neutrinos. We briefly review recent progress on the observations of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays and their implications for the future detections of high energy neutrinos., Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, Proceedings of NOW (Neutrino Oscillation Workshop) 2010, to appear in Nucl. Phys. B (Proc. Suppl.)

The origin of the highest energy cosmic rays is still unknown. The discovery of their sources will reveal the workings of the most energetic astrophysical accelerators in the universe. Current observations show a spectrum consistent with an origin in extragalactic astrophysical sources. Candidate sources range from the birth of compact objects to explosions related to gamma-ray bursts or to events in active galaxies. We discuss the main effects of propagation from cosmologically distant sources including interactions with cosmic background radiation and magnetic fields. We examine possible acceleration mechanisms leading to a survey of candidate sources and their signatures. New questions arise from an observed hint of sky anisotropies and an unexpected evolution of composition indicators. Future observations may reach the necessary sensitivity to achieve charged particle astronomy and to observe ultrahigh energy photons and neutrinos, which will further illuminate the workings of the universe at these extreme energies. In addition to fostering a new understanding of high-energy astrophysical phenomena, the study of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays can constrain the structure of the Galactic and extragalactic magnetic fields as well as probe particle interactions at energies orders of magnitude higher than achieved in terrestrial accelerators., Comment: Draft of solicited review article; 44 pages and 12 figures; Final version to appear in Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics vol. 49 (2011)

While propagating from their source to the observer, ultrahigh energy cosmic rays interact with cosmological photon backgrounds and generate to the so-called "cosmogenic neutrinos". Here we study the parameter space of the cosmogenic neutrino flux given recent cosmic ray data and updates on plausible source evolution models. The shape and normalization of the cosmogenic neutrino flux are very sensitive to some of the current unknowns of ultrahigh energy cosmic ray sources and composition. We investigate various chemical compositions and maximum proton acceleration energies E_p,max which are allowed by current observations. We consider different models of source evolution in redshift and three possible scenarios for the Galactic to extragalactic transition. We summarize the parameter space for cosmogenic neutrinos into three regions: an optimistic scenario that is currently being constrained by observations, a plausible range of models in which we base many of our rate estimates, and a pessimistic scenario that will postpone detection for decades to come. We present the implications of these three scenarios for the detection of cosmogenic neutrinos from PeV to ZeV (10^14-21 eV) with the existing and upcoming instruments. In the plausible range of parameters, the narrow flux variability in the EeV energy region assures low but detectable rates for IceCube (0.06-0.2 neutrino per year) and the Pierre Auger Observatory (0.03-0.06 neutrino per year), and detection should happen in the next decade. If EeV neutrinos are detected, PeV information can help select between competing models of cosmic ray composition at the highest energy and the Galactic to extragalactic transition at ankle energies. With improved sensitivity, ZeV neutrino observatories, such as ANITA and JEM-EUSO could explore and place limits on the maximum acceleration energy., Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures, version to appear in JCAP, minor changes

We study the small scale anisotropy signal expected at the Pierre Auger Observatory in the next 1, 5, 10, and 15 years of operation, from sources of ultra-high energy (UHE) protons. We numerically propagate UHE protons over cosmological distances using an injection spectrum and normalization that fits current data up to $\sim 10^{20}\eV$. We characterize possible sources of ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) by their mean density in the local Universe, $\bar{\rho} = 10^{-r}$ Mpc$^{-3}$, with $r$ between 3 and 6. These densities span a wide range of extragalactic sites for UHECR sources, from common to rare galaxies or even clusters of galaxies. We simulate 100 realizations for each model and calculate the two point correlation function for events with energies above $4 \times 10^{19}\eV$ and above $10^{20}\eV$, as specialized to the case of the Auger telescope. We find that for $r\ga 4$, Auger should be able to detect small scale anisotropies in the near future. Distinguishing between different source densities based on cosmic ray data alone will be more challenging than detecting a departure from isotropy and is likely to require larger statistics of events. Combining the angular distribution studies with the spectral shape around the GZK feature will also help distinguish between different source scenarios., Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, 6 tables, submitted to JCAP

We present results of numerical simulations of the propagation of ultra high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) over cosmological distances, aimed at quantifying the statistical significance of the highest energy data on the spectrum and small scale anisotropies as detected by the AGASA experiment. We assess the significance of the lack of a GZK feature and its compatibility with the reported small scale anisotropies. Assuming that UHECRs are protons from extragalactic sources, we find that the small scale anisotropies are incompatible with the reported spectrum at a probability level of $2 \times 10^{-5}$. Our analysis of the AGASA results shows the power of combining spectrum and small scale anisotropy data in future high statistics experiments, such as Auger., Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, submitted to JCAP

In this report I summarize contributions on the highest energy cosmic rays to the 28th International Cosmic Ray Conference in Tsukuba, Japan, Sections HE 1.3, 1.4 and 1.5 involved over 80 oral presentations and about 120 posters. This large body of work attests to the vitality of a field committed to resolving the mystery of the origin of ultra-high energy cosmic rays. These cosmic rays with energies well above $10^{18}$ eV are messengers of an unknown extremely high-energy universe., Comment: 18 pages, in the Proceedings of the 28th International Cosmic Ray Conference

The annihilation of neutralino dark matter in the Galactic Center (GC) may result in radio signals that can be used to detect or constrain the dark matter halo density profile or dark matter particle properties. At the Galactic Center, the accretion flow onto the central Black Hole (BH) sustains strong magnetic fields that can induce synchrotron emission by electrons and positrons generated in neutralino annihilations during advection onto the BH. Here we reanalyze the radiative processes relevant for the neutralino annihilation signal at the GC, with realistic assumptions about the accretion flow and its magnetic properties. We find that neglecting these effects, as done in previous papers, leads to the incorrent electron and photon spectra. We find that the magnetic fields associated with the flow are significantly stronger than previously estimated. We derive the appropriate equilibrium distribution of electrons and positron and the resulting radiation, considering adiabatic compression in the accretion flow, inverse Compton scattering off synchrotron photons (synchrotron self-Compton scattering), and synchrotron self-absorption of the emitted radiation. We derive the signal for a Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW) dark matter halo profile and a NFW profile with a dark matter spike due to the central BH. We find that the observed radio emission from the GC is inconsistent with the scenario in which a spiky distribution of neutralinos is present. We discuss several important differences between our calculations and those previously presented in the literature., Comment: 19 pages, 11 eps figures, version accepted for publication in JCAP

In models with TeV-scale gravity, ultrahigh energy cosmic rays can generate microscopic black holes in the collision with atmospheric and terrestrial nuclei. It has been proposed that stringent bounds on TeV-scale gravity can be obtained from the absence of neutrino cosmic ray showers mediated by black holes. However, uncertainties in the cross section of black hole formation and, most importantly, large uncertainties in the neutrino flux affects these bounds. As long as the cosmic neutrino flux remains unknown, the non-observation of neutrino induced showers implies less stringent limits than present collider limits., Comment: Changes to match published version

We calculate the expected flux of gamma-ray and radio emission from the LMC due to neutralino annihilation. Using rotation curve data to probe the density profile and assuming a minimum disk, we describe the dark matter halo of the LMC using models predicted by N-body simulations. We consider a range of density profiles including the NFW profile, a modified NFW profile proposed by Hayashi et al.(2003) to account for the effects of tidal stripping, and an isothermal sphere with a core. We find that the gamma-ray flux expected from these models may be detectable by GLAST for a significant part of the neutralino parameter space. The prospects for existing and upcoming Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes are less optimistic, as unrealistically long exposures are required for detection. However, the effects of adiabatic compression due to the baryonic component may improve the chances for detection by ACTs. The maximum flux we predict is well below EGRET's measurements and thus EGRET does not constrain the parameter space. The expected synchrotron emission generally lies below the observed radio emission from the LMC in the frequency range of 19.7 to 8550 MHz. As long as <2x 10^-26 cm^3 s^-1 for a neutralino mass of 50 GeV, the observed radio emission is not primarily due to neutralinos and is consistent with the assumption that the main source is cosmic rays. We find that the predicted fluxes, obtained by integrating over the entire LMC, are not very strongly dependent on the inner slope of the halo profile, varying by less than an order of magnitude for the range of profiles we considered., Comment: 24 pages, 5 figures; detailed discussion of how the neutralino induced signals compare with the cosmic-ray induced ones was added. Main conclusions unchanged. Matches accepted version, to appear in Astroparticle Physics

We discuss the detectability of dark matter clumps in the Milky Way halo due to neutralino annihilation. We then focus on a known ``clump'', the Large Magellanic Cloud., Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures; to appear in New Astronomy Reviews, Proceedings of 2nd VERITAS symposium

Particle collisions with center-of-mass energy larger than the fundamental gravitational scale can generate non perturbative gravitational objects such as black holes and branes. In models with large extra dimensions, the fundamental gravitational scale may be around a TeV, making it possible for next generation particle colliders and ultra-high energy cosmic rays to produce such non perturbative gravitational objects. The decay of TeV gravitational objects is significantly different from standard model processes such that probes of these new ideas are within reach. We study the differences between standard model and TeV gravity interactions in extensive air showers (EAS) generated by ultra-high energy cosmic neutrinos. We show that discriminating TeV gravity from standard model interactions is generally difficult, but not impossible given a few unique signatures., Comment: 4 pages. To be published in the Proceedings of the 28th International Cosmic Ray Conference

In models with large extra dimensions, particle collisions with center-of-mass energy larger than the fundamental gravitational scale can generate nonperturbative gravitational objects. Since cosmic rays have been observed with energies above $10^{8}$ TeV, gravitational effects in the TeV energy range can, in principle, be observed by ultrahigh energy cosmic ray detectors. We consider the interaction of ultrahigh energy neutrinos in the atmosphere and compare extensive air showers from TeV black hole formation and fragmentation with standard model processes. Departures from the standard model predictions arise in the interaction cross sections and in the multiplicity of secondary particles. Large theoretical uncertainties in the black hole cross section weaken attempts to constrain TeV gravity based solely on differences between predicted and observed event rates. The large multiplicity of secondaries in black hole fragmentation enhances the detectability of TeV gravity effects. We simulate TeV black hole air showers using PYTHIA and AIRES, and find that black hole-induced air showers are quite distinct from standard model air showers. However, the limited amount of information registered by realistic detectors together with large air shower fluctuations limit in practice the ability to distinguish TeV gravity events from standard model events in a shower by shower case. We discuss possible strategies to optimize the detectability of black hole events and propose a few unique signatures that may allow future high statistics detectors to separate black hole from standard model events., Comment: RevTeX 4, 31 pages, 9 color figures. Minor changes here and there to match the published version

We developed a numerical simulation of the propagation of UHECR in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and we used it to determine the significance of the GZK feature in the spectrum of UHECR measured by AGASA and HiRes. We find that these two experiments are best fit by two different injection spectra in the region below 10^20 eV and that the error bars around the GZK feature are dominated by fluctuations which leave a determination of the GZK feature not attainable at present. In addition the comparison of the spectra of AGASA and HiRes suggests the presence of about a 30% systematic errors in the relative energy determination of the two experiments. Correcting for these systematics, the two experiments are brought in agreement at energies below 10^20 eV and, in this region, are best fit by an injection spectrum with spectral index 2.5-2.6. In the high energy region (above 10^20 eV) the two experiments maintain their disagreement, but only at the 2sigma level. Our results clearly show the need for much larger experiments such as Auger, EUSO, and OWL, that can increase the number of detected events by one or two orders of magnitude., Comment: 4 pages. To be published in the Proceedings of the 28th International Cosmic Ray Conference

The nature of the unknown sources of ultra-high energy cosmic rays can be revealed through the detection of the GZK feature in the cosmic ray spectrum. The only two experiments that have probed this energy range, AGASA and HiRes, have apparently conflicting results. HiRes measured a flux consistent with the GZK feature while AGASA reported a larger than expected flux of so-called Super-GZK particles. Here we emphasize that neither experiment has gathered the statistics necessary for making a definitive measurement of the GZK cutoff. The photo-pion production responsible for the GZK feature is stochastic for energies around the cutoff leading to large fluctuations of the spectrum for low statistics measurements. We show that the results from AGASA and HiRes results are within about $ 2 \sigma$ of one another by simulating 400 spectra for a range of input spectral indices normalized to the number of events above $10^{19}$ eV for each experiment. If a 15% systematic correction in energy is applied to both experiments, the agreement between the experiments improves considerably and the best fit input spectral index becomes $\sim 2.6$ for both data sets. Our results clearly show the need for much larger experiments such as Auger and EUSO, that can increase the number of detected events by 2 orders of magnitude. Only large statistics experiments can finally prove or disprove the existence of the GZK feature in the cosmic ray spectrum., Comment: Proceedings of the International Workshopon Extremely High Energy Cosmic Rays, RIKEN, Japan

The nature of the unknown sources of ultra-high energy cosmic rays can be revealed through the detection of the GZK feature in the cosmic ray spectrum, resulting from the production of pions by ultra-high energy protons scattering off the cosmic microwave background. Here we show that the GZK feature cannot be accurately determined with the small sample of events with energies $\sim 10^{20}$ eV detected thus far by the largest two experiments, AGASA and HiRes. With the help of numerical simulations for the propagation of cosmic rays, we find the error bars around the GZK feature are dominated by fluctuations which leave a determination of the GZK feature unattainable at present. In addition, differing results from AGASA and HiRes suggest the presence of $\sim 30%$ systematic errors that may be due to discrepancies in the relative energy determination of the two experiments. Correcting for these systematics, the two experiments are brought into agreement at energies below $\sim 10^{20}$ eV. After simulating the GZK feature for many realizations and different injection spectra, we determine the best fit injection spectrum required to explain the observed spectra at energies above $10^{18.5}$ eV. We show that the discrepancy between the two experiments at the highest energies has low statistical significance (at the 2 $\sigma$ level) and that the corrected spectra are best fit by an injection spectrum with spectral index $\sim 2.6$. Our results clearly show the need for much larger experiments such as Auger, EUSO, and OWL, that can increase the number of detected events by 2 orders of magnitude. Only large statistics experiments can finally prove or disprove the existence of the GZK feature in the cosmic ray spectrum., Comment: Version accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physics