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Background: Progression trajectories of patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) are currently not well understood. Objective: To classify patients with incident MCI into different latent classes of progression and identify predictors of progression class. Methods: Participants with incident MCI were identified from the US National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center Uniform Data Set (09/2005-02/2019). Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR®) Dementia Staging Instrument-Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB), Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ), and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score longitudinal trajectories from MCI diagnosis were fitted using growth mixture models. Predictors of progression class were identified using multivariate multinomial logistic regression models; odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were reported. Results: In total, 21%, 22%, and 57% of participants (N = 830) experienced fast, slow, and no progression on CDR-SB, respectively; for FAQ, these figures were 14%, 23%, and 64%, respectively. CDR-SB and FAQ class membership was concordant for most participants (77%). Older age (≥86 versus≤70 years, OR [95% CI] = 5.26 [1.78–15.54]), one copy of APOE ɛ4 (1.94 [1.08–3.47]), higher baseline CDR-SB (2.46 [1.56–3.88]), lower baseline MMSE (0.85 [0.75–0.97]), and higher baseline FAQ (1.13 [1.02–1.26]) scores were significant predictors of fast progression versus no progression based on CDR-SB (all p

PURPOSE: Efforts to curb the rising costs of cancer care while improving quality include alternative payment models (APMs), which offer incentives to reduce avoidable spending and provide high-quality and cost-efficient care. The impact of proposed APMs has not been quantified in real-world practice. In this study, we evaluated ASCO’s Patient-Centered Oncology Payment (PCOP) model in existing fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare beneficiaries to understand the magnitude of potential cost savings. MATERIALS AND METHODS: SEER-Medicare data were used to identify women with advanced ovarian cancer diagnosed between 2000 and 2012 who either (1) underwent primary debulking surgery followed by chemotherapy or (2) received neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery. Medicare payments in each cohort were used to compare FFS and PCOP and to estimate the potential for cost savings across health care services received, including outpatient emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and imaging. RESULTS: Three thousand seven hundred seventy-seven primary debulking surgery and 866 neoadjuvant chemotherapy patients were included in the study, with mean total costs of $75,433 and $95,138 in 2016 US$, respectively Most costs were related to chemotherapy or hospitalization. Additional PCOP-related payments would be offset if hospitalizations could be reduced by 11.6% or imaging claims by 88%. CONCLUSION: APMs have the potential to reduce costs of current FFS reimbursement via either a large reduction in imaging or a modest reduction in hospitalizations during treatment of ovarian cancer. PCOP is a reasonable payment structure for oncologists if the additional payments can provide the necessary resources to invest in improved coordination of care.

Importance Existing recommendations for the diagnostic testing of hematuria range from uniform evaluation of varying intensity to patient-level risk stratification. Concerns have been raised about not only the costs and advantages of computed tomography (CT) scans but also the potential harms of CT radiation exposure. Objective To compare the advantages, harms, and costs associated with 5 guidelines for hematuria evaluation. Design, Setting, and Participants A microsimulation model was developed to assess each of the following guidelines (listed in order of increasing intensity) for initial evaluation of hematuria: Dutch, Canadian Urological Association (CUA), Kaiser Permanente (KP), Hematuria Risk Index (HRI), and American Urological Association (AUA). Participants comprised a hypothetical cohort of patients (n = 100 000) with hematuria aged 35 years or older. This study was conducted from August 2017 through November 2018. Exposures Under the Dutch and CUA guidelines, patients received cystoscopy and ultrasonography if they were 50 years or older (Dutch) or 40 years or older (CUA). Under the KP and HRI guidelines, patients received different combinations of cystoscopy, ultrasonography, and CT urography or no evaluation on the basis of risk factors. Under the AUA guidelines, all patients 35 years or older received cystoscopy and CT urography. Main Outcomes and Measures Urinary tract cancer detection rates, radiation-induced secondary cancers (from CT radiation exposure), procedural complications, false-positive rates per 100 000 patients, and incremental cost per additional urinary tract cancer detected. Results The simulated cohort included 100 000 patients with hematuria, aged 35 years or older. A total of 3514 patients had urinary tract cancers (estimated prevalence, 3.5%; 95% CI, 3.0%-4.0%). The AUA guidelines missed detection for the fewest number of cancers (82 [2.3%]) compared with the detection rate of the HRI (116 [3.3%]) and KP (130 [3.7%]) guidelines. However, the simulation model projected 108 (95% CI, 34-201) radiation-induced cancers under the KP guidelines, 136 (95% CI, 62-229) under the HRI guidelines, and 575 (95% CI, 184-1069) under the AUA guidelines per 100 000 patients. The CUA and Dutch guidelines missed detection for a larger number of cancers (172 [4.9%] and 251 [7.1%]) but had 0 radiation-induced secondary cancers. The AUA guidelines cost approximately double the other 4 guidelines ($939/person vs $443/person for Dutch guidelines), with an incremental cost of $1 034 374 per urinary tract cancer detected compared with that of the HRI guidelines. Conclusions and Relevance In this simulation study, uniform CT imaging for patients with hematuria was associated with increased costs and harms of secondary cancers, procedural complications, and false positives, with only a marginal increase in cancer detection. Risk stratification may optimize the balance of advantages, harms, and costs of CT.