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Abstract In Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines are defined by the World Bank as countries that failed to overcome the "middle income trap". The four Southeast Asian countries (hereinafter referred to as the "ASEAN Four") entered the ranks of middle-income economies in the late 1970s and early 1980s and achieved rapid economic development throughout the 1980s and 1990s. However, since the early 2000s, the competitive advantages of these countries’ labor-intensive industries have started to decline, while the process of industrial transformation and technological improvement has been stagnated due to the lack of innovation resources. With limited R&D input and insufficient indigenous tech innovation, these countries’ manufacturing industry show a trend of "deindustrialization" and the "middle technology trap" phenomenon emerged. As the manufacturing sector failed to generate value-added that promotes economic growth and national income increase, ASEAN Four have so far yet to enter the high-income ranks. Drawing from the cases of ASEAN Four, this paper argues that the "middle technology trap" is a key contributing factor to the “middle income trap,” and countries fallen into the “middle income trap” often experience the "middle technology trap" as a concomitant phenomenon. The paper first introduces the industrialization process of ASEAN Four while analyzes the challenges they faced in industrial structural transformation and technology advancement. It then discusses major reasons that these countries failed to step over both the "middle technology trap" and the “middle income trap”, including limited technology spillovers from FDI, R&D investment shortages and insufficient industrial policies, low-quality education system, deficient intellectual property protection and underdeveloped regional capital markets. The paper concludes with some implications for China and discussion on potential future research on distinctions of the “middle technology trap” phenomenon between upper middle-income and lower middle-income countries.

In Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines are defined by the World Bank as countries that failed to overcome the "middle income trap". The four Southeast Asian countries (hereinafter referred to as the "ASEAN Four") entered the ranks of middle-income economies in the late 1970s and early 1980s and achieved rapid economic development throughout the 1980s and 1990s. However, since the early 2000s, the competitive advantages of these countries' labor-intensive industries have started to decline, while the process of industrial transformation and technological improvement has been stagnated due to the lack of innovation resources. With limited R&D input and insufficient indigenous tech innovation, these countries' manufacturing industry show a trend of "deindustrialization" and the "middle technology trap" phenomenon emerged. As the manufacturing sector failed to generate value-added that promotes economic growth and national income increase, ASEAN Four have so far yet to enter the high-income ranks. Drawing from the cases of ASEAN Four, this paper argues that the "middle technology trap" is a key contributing factor to the "middle income trap," and countries fallen into the "middle income trap" often experience the "middle technology trap" as a concomitant phenomenon. The paper first introduces the industrialization process of ASEAN Four while analyzes the challenges they faced in industrial structural transformation and technology advancement. It then discusses major reasons that these countries failed to step over both the "middle technology trap" and the "middle income trap", including limited technology spillovers from FDI, R&D investment shortages and insufficient industrial policies, low-quality education system, deficient intellectual property protection and underdeveloped regional capital markets. The paper concludes with some implications for China and discussion on potential future research on distinctions of the "middle technology trap" phenomenon between upper middle-income and lower middle-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the history of economic development, natural resources have always played an essential role. For instance, during the first Industrial Revolution steam engine greatly increased the efficiency of production: with the help of the combustion of black coal, and later oil, the worth of natural resources from the Earth was never devalued. For every economic entity, immense development at the beginning of the process seems inevitable, and China’s economic development follows a similar trajectory, yet with the continuing development, environmental issues are becoming non-negligible anymore in China, which could potentially drag and slow down overall economic progress. What problems is China facing nowadays and what will it face in the future, and what sort of measures can have their own practical meaning to the world? We are going to look at the details in this paper.

Dünya Bankası’nın kişi başına GSYH ülke sınıflandırmasına göre Türkiye 1955 yılından araştırmanın yapıldığı 2021’e kadar geçen dönemde orta gelirli ülkeler grubunda yer almıştır. Bu çalışmada öncelikle Türkiye ekonomisinin karşılaştığı durumun orta gelir tuzağı olup olmadığı Türkiye ve referans ülke olarak alınan ABD GSYH’lerinin 1960 – 2021 dönemindeki yıllık farklarına bir geleneksel ve üç farklı yapısal kırılmalı birim kök test uygulanmak suretiyle araştırılmıştır. Bir yapısal kırılmalı test dışındaki tüm birim kök sınamalarının bulguları serinin durağan olmadığını göstermiştir. Diğer taraftan Türkiye’nin kişi başına GSYH’sinin referans ülke ABD GSYH’sine oranı ilgili dönem için nispi eşik olarak belirlenen 0,08 – 0,36 aralığında kalmıştır. Bulgular Türkiye’nin orta gelir tuzağına takıldığına dair kesin kanıtlar sağlamamakla birlikte bu riskin söz konusu olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Daha sonra Türkiye ve ABD GSYH’leri yakınsaması ile ticari açıklık, imalat sanayi ürünleri ithalatı ve ihracatı, tarımsal ürünler ithalatı ve ihracatı, ihracatın ithalatı karşılama oranı, reel efektif döviz kuru arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkiler 1990–2021 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılmak suretiyle araştırılmıştır. Uygulanan ARDL sınır testinin bulguları ticari açıklık düzeyindeki artışların uzun dönemde Türkiye ile ABD kişi başına GSYH’lerinin yakınsamasına neden olduğunu göstermektedir. İmalat sanayi ürünleri ithalatının toplam GSYH içindeki payındaki artışlar hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde, tarımsal ürünler ithalatının payındaki artışlar ise uzun dönemde ıraksamaya yol açmaktadır.

Over the history of economic development, natural resources have always played an essential role. For instance, during the first Industrial Revolution steam engine greatly increased the efficiency of production: with the help of the combustion of black coal, and later oil, the worth of natural resources from the Earth was never devalued. For every economic entity, immense development at the beginning of the process seems inevitable, and China's economic development follows a similar trajectory, yet with the continuing development, environmental issues are becoming non-negligible anymore in China, which could potentially drag and slow down overall economic progress. What problems is China facing nowadays and what will it face in the future, and what sort of measures can have their own practical meaning to the world? We are going to look at the details in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: to assess the level of formation of conditions for decent remuneration of researchers in the Russian regions. Currently, this sphere faces either being ahead of the targets proposed by the state as part of the social policy implementation, or lagging behind them.Methods: the study uses a methodology of calculating the modified advance coefficient, which determines the growth rate of employees’ wages in comparison with the growth rate of the target indicator in the regions. The modified methodology also provides for accounting for the impact of horizontal unevenness on wages in science, which triggers the “middle income trap”. Due to this trap, measurements of the effectiveness of public policy in the studied area are not amenable to clear categorization. The coefficient implies taking into account the growth rate of wages of researchers, the growth rate of the target indicator and the weight of the region (which in turn reflects the formation of conditions for decent wages for all employees in the Russian Federation subject).Results: according to calculations based on Rosstat data for 2021, only one region showed an advanced growth rate of researchers’ salaries (Leningradskaya oblast). In the remaining 79 Russian Federation subjects, the growth rate of wages in science is lagging behind the growth rate of the target indicator (i.e., they have not used all the opportunities for the formation of decent earnings of researchers). The achievement of the target indicator (200% of the average wage of employees in the region) in these territories is due to the growth of salaries of a limited part of the staff.Scientific novelty: the study determined an algorithm for monitoring the advanced wage growth of researchers in the Russian regions and the principles of public policy (as a set of fundamental and institutional solutions) that will contribute to the formation of decent wages in Russian science.Practical significance: the main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used to form a system of state monitoring of wages in budgetary sectors, as well as to improve the “Science” national project.

It has been taken for granted for a long time that the main objective for economies has to be to maintain economic growth. Economic growth, however, especially when measured by gross domestic product (GDP) can be attractive while human and social conditions deteriorate. Globalisation has created global value chains, which are basically about locating activities into countries where they can be performed at the lowest costs. These processes can hold back economies from moving towards a higher level of development. The article examines the economic and social situation in the V4 countries in international context and on a long time horizon, by using the most important economic and social indicators. The main purpose of the analysis is to get an objective overview of the situation, and to suggest solutions to achieve a more harmonious economic and social development, which is the necessary precondition for avoiding middle income trap.

The World Economic Forum stated that while digitalization caused a rapid productivity growth, it has also had its disadvantages. Can digitalization be the catalyst of economic development? Our hypothesis contributes to the debate that the higher the level of digital development in a given country, the greater the quality of life and purchasing power it can achieve due to the benefits of various digital technologies. In our research, we investigated the relationship between the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), the Quality of Life Index (QLI) and the Purchasing Power Index (PPI) among the EU countries from 2014 to 2019. We acquired datasets from Eurostat and Numbeo and examined correlations between indices. We found a strong positive relationship between the level of digitalization, the quality of life, and the purchasing power.

The results of economic transformations in the Baltic States from 1991 to 2018 are evaluated. Changes in indicators of growth of welfare, human and productive capital are tracked. There was a slowdown in the convergence of welfare levels due to the unfavorable conditions of foreign markets and the lack of advanced development factors. Despite relatively rapid economic growth, there remains a significant gap between the Baltic States from the European countries with high levels of income. The chronic problem of population flight, unstable inflows of investment, and instability in foreign trade prevent countries from escaping the middle-income trap. The study is based on the World Bank statistics.

The middle-income trap (MIT) describes obstacles to sustainable growth experienced by some middle-income countries. The initial growth of emerging economies is often characterized by reliance on labor intense, import driven factors, facilitated by foreign direct investment (FDI). As it matures, that initial growth becomes more dependent on foreign technology imports to produce exports, which can impede sustained growth. Poland is representative of several middle-income East European countries; after the 1990 transition, Poland had inadequate infrastructure and obsolescent industries, but a work force that was highly educated. Since 1990, relatively low labor costs, technology imports, European Union (EU) funding, and FDI have propelled Poland to middleincome status. However, Poland's comparative labor advantages have recently diminished, while both the quantity and composition of FDI inflows are changing. In this paper, we examine whether some growth factors have been exhausted, leaving Poland subject to MIT. To answer this question, we assess changes in investment and factor productivity, labor force educational attainments, FDI, new product/technology development, imports, export diversification, product complexity, and other factors. We conclude that in Poland several conditions consistent with MIT are gaining importance and may be an early warning sign of challenges to its future growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to examine the validity of Kaldor growth models in upper middle income countries. The reason why upper middle income countries were preferred in the study that they were faced with the risk of middle income trap, which is among the most important growth problems of these countries in recent years. In the study, panel data models were estimated for the Kaldor’s growth models for 24 upper middle-income countries whose data can be accessed by considering the period 1991-2019. Before the estimation of the models, the stationarity of the series was examined with the unit root tests with structural break. According to the estimation of the results, it has been concluded that only Kaldor’s second model has been found valid for those countries with the risk of middle income trap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation: There are many victims of middle economic income trap in the world. This term commonly refers to countries that have experienced rapid growth, which enabled them to reach the status of a middle-income country, but finally have not been able to catch up the developed countries and achieve high-income status. Following this raises the question about Poland’s economy position in the context of middle income trap.Aim: The aim of article is to present the position of polish economy in the context of ‘middle income trap theory’.Results: Poland is a middle-income country, and some classifications say it is even a high-income country. The analysis of statistical indicators shows that in Poland there is a problem with the quality of labor, education and competencies, often because of the outflow of talented human capital. Moreover, as is known from the data prepared for the Strategy Europe 2020, Poland has the highest percentage of fixed term contracts in Europe and high poverty at work. Also the low share of the R&D expenditure in the GDP goes together with low sub-indexes of the Global Competitiveness Index and the Index of Economic Freedom. As to the export structure, there was considerable increase in middle and upper technology goods share over the last 20 years.

In 2010, the World Bank categorized countries in per capita gross domestic product in terms of purchasing power parity (at constant 1990 prices) in three categories: low, middle (lower and upper) and high income. If a country caught at least 28 years in lower middle income level and at least 14 years caught in upper middle-income level, then they are trapped in lower middle and upper middle income traps respectively. The growth of per capita GDP or economic growth, is a factor in avoiding middle income trap. We examined the effect of total factor productivity, human capital and age dependency ratios on GDP per capita growth and the avoidance of middle income trap during 1991 - 2014 for ten Islamic countries, using panel data and constant effects estimation. The findings indicate that human capital and then total factor productivity have positive and significant relationship with per-capita GDP and have the greatest impact on economic growth and the avoidance from middle income trap. If the ratio of age dependency is high, it has a positive and significant effect on economic growth and can keep the country in the middle income trap.

The World Economic Forum stated that while digitalization caused a rapid productivity growth, it has also had its disadvantages. Can digitalization be the catalyst of economic development? Our hypothesis contributes to the debate that the higher the level of digital development in a given country, the greater the quality of life and purchasing power it can achieve due to the benefits of various digital technologies. In our research, we investigated the relationship between the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), the Quality of Life Index (QLI) and the Purchasing Power Index (PPI) among the EU countries from 2014 to 2019. We acquired datasets from Eurostat and Numbeo and examined correlations between indices. We found a strong positive relationship between the level of digitalization, the quality of life, and the purchasing power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The main aim of the article is to emphasize those reasons of the development barriers which are related to the shortcomings of deliberative co-decisional practices in public policy. The author assumes the culturally-institutional and functional methodological orientation and refers to examples of the Polish social dialogue, civil dialogue, lobbying, public hearing and social consultations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Çankırı Karatekin University Journal of the Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences is the property of Cankiri Karatekin University, Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper, we investigate the role of labor productivity growth and whether the determinants of labor productivity growth differed among the middle income trap (MIT) and the graduated (non-middle income trap, NMIT) countries in the 1950–2005 period. We decompose labor productivity growth into “within sector” productivity improvements, “static structural change” productivity progress and “dynamic structural change” gains. Moreover, we study sectoral contributions to within sector productivity gains in these countries. We find that there was a significant labor productivity growth rate difference between the MIT and the NMIT countries, and this difference mainly originated from the within sector productivity improvements. Our sectoral analysis reveals that the most important sector that enlarged the within sector productivity growth gap between the MIT and the NMIT countries was manufacturing.

This paper compares and contrasts the policy reform experiences of Poland and Turkey en route to high income. For both countries, globalization has presented unprecedented opportunities to catch up, unleased by integration into European and global markets and the establishment of macroeconomic discipline. These opportunities were reinforced by the creation of economic institutions to strengthen competition and support private entrepreneurship, catalyzed by the convergence process with the European Union. Both Poland and Turkey have shown resilience following the 2008 global crisis, but continued success will require renewed structural reform measures. Dealing with the challenging of aging while at the same time finding a way to sustain productivity growth through greater domestic innovation is shaping Poland’s policy agenda. Turkey's structural and demographic potential as well as its strategic location between the markets of Europe and Asia offers attractive value proposition to investors, which could be further enhanced with improvements in business regulations and economic governance.

Motivation: There are many victims of middle economic income trap in the world. This term commonly refers to countries that have experienced rapid growth, which enabled them to reach the status of a middle-income country, but finally have not been able to catch up the developed countries and achieve high-income status. Following this raises the question about Poland's economy position in the context of middle income trap. Aim: The aim of article is to present the position of polish economy in the context of 'middle income trap theory'. Results: Poland is a middle-income country, and some classifications say it is even a high-income country. The analysis of statistical indicators shows that in Poland there is a problem with the quality of labor, education and competencies, often because of the outflow of talented human capital. Moreover, as is known from the data prepared for the Strategy Europe 2020, Poland has the highest percentage of fixed term contracts in Europe and high poverty at work. Also the low share of the R&D expenditure in the GDP goes together with low sub-indexes of the Global Competitiveness Index and the Index of Economic Freedom. As to the export structure, there was considerable increase in middle and upper technology goods share over the last 20 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper was to verify whether Poland managed to avoid or still might fall into the middle income trap. The paper provides a literature overview concerning the middle income trap. Though there are diverging interpretations of the notion of middle income trap, common conclusions of economists emphasize the importance of innovation-based transformation of economies as a way of avoiding the trap. Further, the paper overviews literature concerning public policies which support this much-needed transformation. We conclude that countries such as Finland, Israel or the USA implemented well-designed top-down economic strategies, which promoted the development of innovations and established effective implementation agencies. Exceptions from this model are some resource rich countries, which managed to avoid the middle income trap without the implementation of such policies, but these countries face in most cases the danger of falling into another trap, called ‘the Dutch disease’. In a subsequent part of the article, we attempt to apply the middle income trap concept to Poland and conclude that it is not possible to clearly state whether Poland avoided the trap or not. This is followed up by a literature-based review of the most common obstacles to innovativeness in Poland. The current growth engines might not be sufficient to ensure economic growth fast enough to speed up the catching up with the most developed countries.

Copyright of Çankırı Karatekin University Journal of the Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences is the property of Cankiri Karatekin University, Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The last three decades have witnessed a rapid ascendance of China as a global power. As China has become the second largest economy investing heavily around the world and is rapidly building up its military, the world’s attention has shifted to the prospect that China will become a superpower and how to deal with it. This article aims to (1) re-examine the concept and definition of “superpower” and “potential superpowers” (PSPs) against the background of China’s rapid rise, (2) describe China’s capability of becoming a superpower and the kind of superpower China will become, (3) analyze the relationship between superpowers and PSPs, and (4) compare potential superpowers, the reasons determines the rise and fall of superpower. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The terms describing the rapidly rise of big countries, such as G2, the BRICs, gives us the impression that one or several superpowers are about to be born. In recent years, however, most major emerging countries have all encountered difficulties. In the discussion of the Chinese model of development, there is a misconception that the Chinese Model has succeeded and the only task left is to identify the reasons behind it. I disagree with this misguided view and believe that the key to correct this misconception is to clarify the criteria for development. As a successful example of the development models, the East Asian model is that at once the economy has achieved substantial development, the fruit of development is shared in the society. This “shared growth” then served as a foundation for political democratization, which enabled the East Asian countries to complete the transition peacefully. Instead of shared growth, the Chinese model features “high growth and low sharing,” which resembles the development model of Southeast Asia, rather than that of East Asia. Therefore, an adjustment is urgently needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Middle income trap is the condition of having the per capita income in a specific level and not having any increase in this income level for many years. The concept of middle income trap is a subject that is frequently discussed in the economic literature in recent years. In this study, it is aimed to evaluate whether Turkey is in middle income trap or not. In addition, the effect of manufacturing industry's share in GDP, schooling rate in higher education and the share of domestic savings in GDP on per capita income level was examined by time series analysis in this context and arguments related with the middle income trap was made. The relationship between the variables in the study was analyzed by Engle Granger cointegration and Engle Granger causality analysis methods. According to the obtained results, a long term relationship was found between the variables which we use. The share of the manufacturing industry within GDP occurred as the cause of the per capita income level. No causality relationship was found between the other variables. According to the evaluations, it is determined that Turkey is not in the middle income trap however it has the risk of having middle income trap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]