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BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is most commonly caused by tubular injury and is associated with a wide variety of critical illnesses. It is well known that urinary biomarkers can lead to the early identification of AKI. However, the ability of urinary biomarkers to distinguish between different types of critical illness has been less studied. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, urinary neutrophil gelatinase–associated lipocalin (uNGAL) was measured in 107 patients consecutively admitted to the ICUs in our tertiary medical center. uNGAL samples were collected within 3–6 hours of admission to an ICU and measured by ELISA. All data were analyzed using R statistical software, and univariate analysis was used to determine the correlations of uNGAL levels with AKI stage, admission diagnoses, and ICU course. RESULTS: uNGAL level increased by a mean of 24-fold (SD 10–59) in ICU patients with AKI and demonstrated a significant correlation with the different AKI stages. uNGAL predicted the need for RRT, with values increased by more than 15-fold (P

Objective To explore the effect of various adverse hospital events on short- and long-term outcomes in a cohort of acutely ill hospitalized patients. Patients and Methods In a secondary analysis of a retrospective cohort of acutely ill hospitalized patients with sepsis, shock, or pneumonia or undergoing high-risk surgery who were at risk for or had developed acute respiratory distress syndrome between 2001 and 2010, the effects of potentially preventable hospital exposures and adverse events (AEs) on in-hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) mortality, length of stay, and long-term survival were analyzed. Adverse effects chosen for inclusion were inadequate empiric antimicrobial coverage, hospital-acquired aspiration, medical or surgical misadventure, inappropriate blood product transfusion, and injurious tidal volume while on mechanical ventilation. Results In 828 patients analyzed, the distribution of 0, 1, 2, and 3 or more cumulative AEs was 521 (63%), 126 (15%), 135 (16%), and 46 (6%) patients, respectively. The adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) for in-hospital mortality in patients who had 1, 2, and 3 or more AEs were 0.9 (0.5-1.7), 0.9 (0.5-1.6), and 1.4 (0.6-3.3), respectively. One AE increased the length of stay, difference between means (95% CI), in the hospital by 8.7 (3.8-13.7) days and in the ICU by 2.4 (0.6-4.2) days. Conclusion Potentially preventable hospital exposure to AEs is associated with prolonged ICU and hospital lengths of stay. Implementation of effective patient safety interventions is of utmost priority in acute care hospitals.

Recent literature suggests an increase in the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI). We evaluated population-based trends of AKI over the course of nine years, using a validated electronic health record tool to detect AKI. All adult residents (18 years of age and older) of Olmsted County, Minnesota (MN), admitted to the Mayo Clinic Hospital between 2006 and 2014 were included. The incidence rate of AKI was calculated and temporal trends in the annual AKI incident rates assessed. During the nine-year study period, 10,283, and 41,847 patients were admitted to the intensive care unit or general ward, with 1,740 and 2,811 developing AKI, respectively. The unadjusted incidence rates were 186 and 287 per 100,000 person years in 2006 and reached 179 and 317 per 100,000 person years in 2014. Following adjustment for age and sex, there was no significant change in the annual AKI incidence rate during the study period with a Relative Risk of 0.99 per year (95% confidence interval 0.97-1.01) for intensive care unit patients and 0.993 per year (0.98-1.01) for the general ward patients. Similar results were obtained when the ICD-9 codes or administrative data for dialysis-requiring AKI was utilized to determine incident cases. Thus, despite the current literature that suggests an epidemic of AKI, we found that after adjusting for age and sex the incidence of AKI in the general population remained relatively stable over the last decade.

BACKGROUND: Optimal titration of inspired oxygen is important to prevent hyperoxia in mechanically ventilated patients in ICUs. There is mounting evidence of the deleterious effects of hyperoxia; however, there is a paucity of data about FIO2 practice and oxygen exposure among patients in ICUs. We therefore sought to assess excessive FIO2 exposure in mechanically ventilated patients with acute lung injury and to evaluate the effect on pulmonary outcomes. METHODS: From a database of ICU patients with acute lung injury identified by prospective electronic medical record screening, we identified those who underwent invasive mechanical ventilation for > 48 hours from January 1 to December 31, 2008. Ventilator settings, including FIO2 and corresponding SpO2, were collected from the electronic medical record at 15-min intervals for the first 48 hours. Excessive FIO2 was defined as FIO2 > 0.5 despite SpO2 > 92%. The association between the duration of excessive exposure and pulmonary outcomes was assessed by change in oxygenation index from baseline to 48 hours and was analyzed by univariate and multivariate linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 210 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 155 (74%) were exposed to excessive FIO2 for a median duration of 17 hours (interquartile range 7.5–33 h). Prolonged exposure to excessive FIO2 correlated with worse oxygenation index at 48 hours in a dose-response manner ( P < .001.). Both exposure to higher FIO2 and longer duration of exposure were associated with worsening oxygenation index at 48 hours ( P < .001), more days on mechanical ventilation, longer ICU stay, and longer hospital stay ( P = .004). No mortality difference was noted. CONCLUSIONS: Excessive oxygen supplementation is common in mechanically ventilated patients with ALI and may be associated with worsening lung function.

Blood product transfusions have long been recognized as an important risk factor for acute lung injury (ALI), with transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI) consistently accounting for the greatest number of transfusion-related fatalities in the developed world.1,2 More recently, a second transfusion-related respiratory complication termed transfusion-associated circulatory overload (TACO) has surpassed hemolytic transfusions reactions to become the second most common cause of transfusion-associated death.2 In 2010, TRALI accounted for 45% of all fatalities reported to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Meanwhile, in the same fiscal year, TACO accounted for 20% of reported fatalities, a figure that increased sharply between 2008 and 2009.2 Importantly, standardized definitions for TRALI and TACO have only recently been endorsed (Table 1).3,4 These definitions also outline a third group termed “possible TRALI” or “transfused ALI”5 for those patients whom meet the TRALI criteria in the presence of an alternate ALI risk factor. Moreover, current reporting systems for transfusion-related complications rely almost exclusively on bedside clinician’s case recognition skills and passive reporting mechanisms. In light of these issues, it is likely that current epidemiologic descriptions of TRALI and TACO are incomplete and biased toward recognition of only the most severe cases. Indeed, recent reports from Kopko and colleagues6 and Narick and colleagues7 validate these concerns for TRALI and TACO, respectively. As a result of these limitations, an accurate picture of TRALI and TACO epidemiology is lacking and the true attributable burden of these transfusion-related pulmonary complications remains unclear. Additionally, the delay or potential absence of case recognition may also negatively impact the outcome of transfusion recipients.8,9 TABLE 1 TRALI and TACO case definitions The implementation of electronic health records (EHRs) into the clinical environment affords an opportunity for highly efficient and scalable data extraction techniques. Moreover, the availability of these novel data extraction strategies may permit active surveillance of clinical diagnoses and syndromes of interest in a scalable manner. In light of the significance of TRALI and TACO in terms of transfusion recipient outcomes, as well as the recent availability of highly innovative electronic data capture strategies, we aimed to develop sensitive and specific automated electronic phenotypic screening algorithms to identify the transfusion-related pulmonary complications TRALI, transfused ALI, and TACO.

Background Acute lung injury (ALI) is a serious postoperative complication with limited treatment options. A preoperative risk-prediction model would assist clinicians and scientists interested in ALI. The objective of this investigation was to develop a surgical lung injury prediction (SLIP) model to predict risk of postoperative ALI based on readily available preoperative risk factors. Methods Secondary analysis of a prospective cohort investigation including adult patients undergoing high-risk surgery. Preoperative risk factors for postoperative ALI were identified and evaluated for inclusion in the SLIP model. Multivariate logistic regression was used to develop the model. Model performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Results Out of 4,366 patients, 113 (2.6%) developed early postoperative ALI. Predictors of postoperative ALI in multivariate analysis that were maintained in the final SLIP model included high-risk cardiac, vascular, or thoracic surgery, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, gastroesophageal reflux disease, and alcohol abuse. The SLIP score distinguished patients who developed early postoperative ALI from those who did not with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) of 0.82 (0.78-0.86). The model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = 0.55). Internal validation using 10-fold cross-validation noted minimal loss of diagnostic accuracy with a mean ± SD area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 ± 0.08. Conclusions Using readily available preoperative risk factors, we developed the SLIP scoring system to predict risk of early postoperative ALI.

Objective: To determine risk factors for development of recurrent acute lung injury. Design: A population-based case-control study. Setting: The study was conducted in Olmsted County, MN, from 1999 to 2008. Patients: Using a validated electronic screening protocol, investigators identified intensive care patients with acute hypoxemia and bilateral pulmonary infiltrates. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: The presence of acute lung injury was independently confirmed according to American-European Consensus Conference criteria. Recurrent acute lung injury cases were subsequently matched (1:1:1) with two controls (single acute lung injury and no acute lung injury) on age, gender, duration of follow-up, and predisposing conditions. Risk factors evaluated included gastroesophageal reflux disease, alcohol consumption, smoking, chronic opioid use, and transfusions. We identified 917 patients with acute lung injury, 19 of which developed a second episode, yielding a frequency of 2.02 (95% confidence interval 1.10–2.93) per 100,000 person years. The median time to development of the second episode was 264 days (interquartile range 80–460 days), with a mortality of 47% during the episode. The history of gastroesophageal reflux disease was highly prevalent in patients who developed recurrent acute lung injury: 15 of 19 patients (79%) compared to 5 of 19 (26%) matches with a single episode of acute lung injury (p = .006) and 8 of 19 (42%) matches without acute lung injury (p = .016). Other exposures were similar between the cases and the two matched controls. Conclusions: Recurrent acute lung injury is not a rare phenomenon in the intensive care unit and may continue to increase with improvements in survival following acute lung injury. Gastroesophageal reflux disease was identified as an important risk factor for recurrent acute lung injury and may suggest an important role of gastric aspiration in the development of this syndrome.

Early recognition of patients at high risk of acute lung injury (ALI) is critical for successful enrollment of patients in prevention strategies for this devastating syndrome. We aimed to develop and prospectively validate an ALI prediction score in a population-based sample of patients at risk. In a retrospective derivation cohort, predisposing conditions for ALI were identified at the time of hospital admission. The score was calculated based on the results of logistic regression analysis. Prospective validation was performed in an independent cohort of patients at risk identified at the time of hospital admission. In a derivation cohort of 409 patients with ALI risk factors, the lung injury prediction score discriminated patients who developed ALI from those who did not with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.89; Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.60). The performance was similar in a prospective validation cohort of 463 patients at risk of ALI (AUC 0.84, 95% CI 0.77-0.91; Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.88). ALI prediction scores identify patients at high risk for ALI before intensive care unit admission. If externally validated, this model will serve to define the population of patients at high risk for ALI in whom future mechanistic studies and ALI prevention trials will be conducted.

The impact of obesity on outcomes following liver transplantation has been difficult to determine, in part due to the confounding effects of ascites on BMI. We evaluated the impact of pretransplant recipient obesity on outcomes following liver transplantation using the NIDDK Liver Transplantation Database. Pretransplant BMI, corrected for ascites, was categorized as underweight (BMI18 kg/m(2)), normal weight (BMI 18-25 kg/m(2)), overweight (BMI 25.1-30 kg/m(2)), Class I obese (BMI 30.1-35 kg/m(2)), Class II obese (BMI 35.1-40 kg/m(2)) and Class III obese (BMI40 kg/m(2)). Primary outcomes were patient and graft survival. Secondary outcomes included days in hospital and days in ICU. Data from 704 adult liver transplant recipients from the NIDDK LTD and a further 609 patients from the Mayo Clinic were analyzed. Early and late patient and graft survival was similar across all BMI categories. Correcting for ascites volume resulted in 11-20% of patients moving into a lower BMI classification. The relative risk for mortality increased by 7% for each liter of ascites removed. We conclude that corrected BMI is not independently predictive of patient or graft survival. Obesity, within the ranges observed in this study, should not be considered to be a contraindication to liver transplantation in the absence of other relative contraindications.

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is an important component of hepatic decompensation, which reduces survival in patients with cirrhosis. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has been used to predict survival of patients with cirrhosis. The aims of this study were to determine whether HE is a predictor of survival of patients with cirrhosis and to examine the degree to which HE may add to the survival prediction of MELD. Patients with end-stage liver disease whose data were included in 2 databases were included in the analysis: 223 patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) insertion, and 271 patients hospitalized with hepatic decompensation. In univariate analysis, HE grade 3 or higher was associated with a 3.7-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.9-7.3, P

Introduction The long-term attributable burden related to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is not fully investigated. The aim of this study is to evaluate the quality of life (QOL) and functional status at 6 months after hospitalization in patients at risk for ARDS who did and did not develop the syndrome. Method This is a population-based prospective cohort study of adult patients from Olmsted County, Minnesota, with or at risk for ARDS hospitalized from October 2008 to July 2011. The primary outcomes were changes in QOL and functional status, measured through 12-Item Short Form Survey (SF-12) and Barthel Index (BI) respectively, from baseline to 6 months, compared between survivors who did and did not develop ARDS. Results Of 410 patients with or at risk for ARDS, 98 had baseline surveys collected and 67 responded to a 6-month survey (26 ARDS, 41 non-ARDS). Both ARDS and non-ARDS groups had lower physical component of SF-12 at baseline compared to general population (P P = 0.03). No significant differences were observed for the change between 6 months and baseline BI (delta 2.3 for ARDS vs. 2.0 for non-ARDS, P = 0.5), or mental (delta 2.7 vs. 2.4, P = 0.9) or physical (delta –3 vs. –3.3, P = 0.9) component of SF-12 between survivors with and without ARDS. Conclusion In this population-based study, decreased QOL and functional status 6 months after hospitalization were largely explained by baseline condition, with similar recovery in survivors who did and did not develop ARDS.

Background & Aims: Distinguishing an alcohol basis from a nonalcoholic basis for the clinical and histologic spectrum of steatohepatitic liver disease is difficult because of unreliability of alcohol consumption history. Unfortunately, various biomarkers have had limited utility in distinguishing alcoholic liver disease (ALD) from nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Thus, the aim of our study was to create and validate a model to diagnose ALD in patients with steatohepatitis. Methods: A cross-sectional cohort study was performed at the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, to create a model using multivariable logistic regression analysis. This model was validated in 3 independent data sets comprising patients of varying severity of steatohepatitis spanning over 10 years. Results: Logistic regression identified mean corpuscular volume, aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransfersase (ALT) ratio, body mass index, and gender as the most important variables that separated patients with ALD from NAFLD. These variables were used to generate the ALD/NAFLD Index (ANI), with ANI of greater than zero incrementally favoring ALD and ANI of less than zero incrementally favoring a diagnosis of NAFLD, thus making ALD unlikely. ANI had a c-statistic of 0.989 in the derivation sample, and 0.974, 0.989, 0.767 in the 3 validation samples. ANI performance characteristics were significantly better than several conventional and recently proposed biomarkers used to differentiate ALD from NAFLD, including the histopathologic marker protein tyrosine phosphatase 1b, AST/ALT ratio, γ-glutamyl transferase, and carbohydrate-deficient transferrin. Conclusions: ANI, derived from easily available objective variables, accurately differentiates ALD from NAFLD in hospitalized, ambulatory, and pretransplantation patients and compares favorably with other traditional and proposed biomarkers.

Bone loss occurs early after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in all liver transplant recipients and leads to postoperative fractures, especially in cholestatic patients with the lowest bone mass. Little is known about the underlying changes in bone metabolism after OLT or about the etiology of these changes. Histomorphometric analysis of bone biopsies, a method that allows assessment of bone volume, resorption, and formation, has shown improved bone metabolism at 4 months after OLT. It has further suggested that accelerated posttransplant bone loss occurs in the first 1-2 months after OLT, probably by an additional insult to bone formation. This study attempts to correlate the histomorphometric bone changes in paired bone biopsies (OLT and 4 months after OLT) of 33 patients undergoing OLT for chronic cholestatic liver disease with the many clinical and biochemical changes in these patients over the same period. Cumulative steroid dosage early after OLT is shown to be important, presumably by decreasing bone formation rates. The actual effect of calcineurin inhibitors on this early phase of bone loss is less clear, although posttransplant histomorphometric findings suggest that tacrolimus-treated patients have an earlier recovery of bone metabolism and trabecular structure compared with cyclosporine patients. Other factors important in the recovery of bone metabolism after the early phase of bone loss are recovery of liver and gonadal function and better calcium balance.

Thirty-three patients with cholestatic liver disease underwent histomorphometric assessment of paired bone biopsy specimens at time of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) and 4 months thereafter. At 4 months after OLT, bone metabolism improved, with bone formation increasing to normal and no change in bone resorption. Early post-transplant bone loss may be attributed to an additional insult to bone formation early after transplantation. Introduction: Patients with advanced liver disease, especially chronic cholestasis, often have osteopenia, which worsens early after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) before starting to recover. The changes in bone metabolism leading to this rapid loss of bone after OLT, and to its recovery, are poorly defined. Materials and Methods: In thirty-three patients with advanced chronic cholestatic liver disease, tetracycline-labeled bone biopsy specimens were analyzed prospectively at time of OLT and at 4 months after OLT, as part of a randomized trial to study the efficacy of calcitonin on post-transplant bone loss. Hierarchical cluster analysis of histomorphometric parameters was performed in an attempt to establish the functional grouping of individual histomorphometric parameters before and after OLT. Results and Conclusions: Results showed that from the time of OLT to 4 months after OLT, bone mineral density of the lumbar spine and histomorphometric parameters of bone volume decreased, consistent with early post-transplant bone loss. Histomorphometric resorption parameters were increased before OLT, with no change after OLT. Histomorphometric formation parameters increased from low values before OLT to normal values at 4 months after OLT, with the exception of mean wall thickness values, which further decreased after OLT, suggesting an additional insult to bone formation during the study period. Histomorphometric changes after OLT were similar in female and male patients, pre- and postmenopausal women, and in patients treated and not treated with calcitonin. Hierarchical cluster analysis suggested that before OLT, bone resorption was functioning independently of bone formation, but that by 4 months after OLT, their coupled relationship had improved. Therefore, despite post-transplant bone loss, by 4 months after OLT, bone metabolism had improved, with increased bone formation and more coupled bone balance, as suggested by hierarchical cluster analysis.

The effect of tracheostomy on patients receiving lung transplantation is unknown. We reviewed our experience by performing a retrospective analysis on all lung transplant recipients at our institution. Patients were assigned to each study group based on whether or not they received a tracheostomy in the acute postoperative period. One hundred and fourteen lung transplants were performed, and 16 of those patients received a tracheostomy. In the tracheostomy group, more patients had undergone bilateral-lung transplantation (81% vs. 34%, p = 0.001), more required cardiopulmonary bypass (75% vs. 38%, p = 0.005), more acquired postoperative pneumonia (88% vs. 30%, p0.001), had greater reperfusion injury at 48 h (PaO2/FiO2 of 233 vs. 345, p = 0.047), had longer initial periods on the ventilator (21 +/- 7 vs. 2 +/- 0.5 days, p0.001), more required re-intubation (56% vs. 18%, p = 0.001), spent longer times in the intensive care unit (30 +/- 7 vs. 5.5 +/- 0.9 days, p0.001), and had longer lengths of stay (67 +/- 10 vs. 22 +/- 2 days, p0.001). Despite these differences between the two groups, a significant difference in survival at 180 days (75 vs. 81%) did not exist (p = 0.89). Although tracheostomy is more likely in sicker patients, it is not associated with poor long-term outcomes.

Non-anastomotic biliary stricture (NAS) formation is a major complication of liver transplantation. We prospectively determined the time to development of responsiveness to treatment, and clinical outcomes following NAS formation. In addition, an extensive analysis of the association of recipient, donor, and clinical variables with NAS formation was performed. A total of 749 consecutive patients was studied in a prospective, protocol-based fashion. Seventy-two patients (9.6%) developed NAS at a mean of 23.6 +/- 34.2 weeks post-transplantation. Non-anastomotic biliary stricture formation resolved in only 6% of affected patients. Although patient survival was not affected, retransplantation and graft loss rates were significantly greater in recipients who developed NAS. In contrast to previous reports, a pretransplant diagnosis of HCV was associated with a low frequency of NAS formation. The incidence of NAS was independently associated with pretransplant diagnoses of PSC and autoimmune hepatitis. Hepatic artery thrombosis, and prolonged warm and cold ischemia times were also independent risk factors for NAS formation. We conclude that NAS developed in approximately 10% of primary liver transplant recipients. A pretransplant diagnosis of autoimmune hepatitis has been identified as a novel independent risk factor for NAS formation. Development of NAS significantly attenuates graft but not patient survival.

Despite the clinical importance of cholestatic osteopenia, little is known about its pathophysiologic mechanism. By tetracycline-labeled histomorphometric analysis of bone biopsies taken at the time of liver transplantation, we prospectively evaluated bone resorption and formation in 50 consecutive patients with advanced primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Histomorphometric analysis confirmed low bone volume parameters, consistent with the mean T-score of the lumbar spine of -1.9 by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Dynamic (bone formation rates, adjusted apposition rates) and static (osteoid markers, osteoblast number) parameters of bone formation were decreased in cholestatic patients with no abnormalities in mineralization. Increased osteoclast numbers and increased eroded surface areas suggested increased bone resorption, and this was supported in female patients by increased trabecular separation and decreased trabecular number. Male cholestatic patients, however, did not have significant increases in resorption parameters, although they were as osteopenic as female patients and had low bone formation markers. Bone histomorphometric changes were similar in PBC and PSC, suggesting an etiologic effect of chronic cholestasis rather than the individual diseases. Cancellous bone volume and osteoid markers correlated with bone mineral density measurements but no correlations were found between histomorphometric parameters and biochemical markers of bone metabolism. In conclusion, cholestatic osteopenia appears to result from a combination of decreased bone formation and increased resorption, especially in female patients, but the relative importance of these two abnormalities and their actual etiology remain to be elucidated.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome is a common complication of critical illness, with high mortality and limited treatment options. Preliminary studies suggest that potentially preventable hospital exposures contribute to acute respiratory distress syndrome development. We aimed to determine the association between specific hospital exposures and the rate of acute respiratory distress syndrome development among at-risk patients.Population-based, nested, Matched case-control study.Consecutive adults who developed acute respiratory distress syndrome from January 2001 through December 2010 during their hospital stay (cases) were matched to similar-risk patients without acute respiratory distress syndrome (controls). They were matched for 6 baseline characteristics.None.Trained investigators blinded to outcome of interest reviewed medical records for evidence of specific exposures, including medical and surgical adverse events, inadequate empirical antimicrobial treatment, hospital-acquired aspiration, injurious mechanical ventilation, transfusion, and fluid and medication administration. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate the risk associated with individual exposures. During the 10-year period, 414 patients with hospital-acquired acute respiratory distress syndrome were identified and matched to 414 at-risk, acute respiratory distress syndrome-free controls. Adverse events were highly associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome development (odds ratio, 6.2; 95% CI, 4.0-9.7), as were inadequate antimicrobial therapy, mechanical ventilation with injurious tidal volumes, hospital-acquired aspiration, and volume of blood products transfused and fluids administered. Exposure to antiplatelet agents during the at-risk period was associated with a decreased risk of acute respiratory distress syndrome. Rate of adverse hospital exposures and prevalence of acute respiratory distress syndrome decreased during the study period.Prevention of adverse hospital exposures in at-risk patients may limit the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome.

In 1998, the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) issued the final rule,1 in which the principles of organ allocation were defined, to govern the operation of the Organ Procurement and Transplant Network (OPTN). This rule included the following guidelines for organ allocation: (1) organs should be allocated to transplant candidates in the order of medical urgency; (2) the role of waiting times should be minimized, and (3) attempts should be made to avoid futile transplants and to promote efficient use of our scarce donor organs. The consensus opinion to minimize waiting time was based on 2 recent reports that analyzed the impact of waiting time on survival of liver patients on the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) waiting list: one from the Institute of Medicine2 and a second report from Freeman et al.3 Both studies concluded that waiting time did not correlate with death on the waiting list and therefore should be de-emphasized in developing a new allocation algorithm. The challenge put forth by this conclusion was to create an allocation policy that made the most effective use of organs especially by making them available, whenever feasible, to the most medically urgent patients who are appropriate candidates for transplantation. This challenge was accepted by the UNOS Liver and Intestinal Committee, whose task it was to (1) make an assessment of the current allocation policy including the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, (2) evaluate a number of previously published survival models that were developed to estimate survival of patients with end-stage liver disease, and (3) develop a new disease severity index to be utilized to allocate liver donor organs in the future. After careful deliberation and extensive input from transplant hepatologists and surgeons, a number of guidelines were established for creating an index of disease severity to estimate survival in patients with chronic liver disease. By consensus, it was determined that such a disease severity index should rely on a few, readily available, objective variables that would be generally applicable to a heterogeneous group of patients with end-stage liver disease, to determine the risk of dying. Finally, the severity index should be clinically and statistically validated and be able to predict the probability of death in groups of patients with chronic liver disease who are demographically diverse and of varying etiology and disease severity. There was agreement among the committee that such a new index should not be introduced without careful prospective evaluation of the potential impact that such a model may have on the gravely ill patients awaiting liver transplant.

The NIDDK-QA instrument, developed and widely used in liver transplant recipients, assesses quality of life (QOL) in four domains, including liver disease symptoms, physical function, health satisfaction, and overall well-being. We investigated whether the instrument may be used as a disease-specific instrument in ambulatory patients with cholestatic liver disease. The NIDDK-QA instrument was administered in 96 patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) seen at the Mayo Clinic. The SF-36, a well-established generic instrument, was also administered. Standard measures for test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and discriminant and concurrent validity were examined. All patients were ambulatory with mostly normal levels of serum bilirubin and albumin concentrations. The reliability of the NIDDK-QA, as measured by test-retest correlation (Pearson coefficients: 0.82-0.99, P

Objective To describe a natural history model for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) that is based on routine clinical findings and test results and eliminates the need for liver biopsy. Patients and Methods Using the Cox proportional hazards analysis, we created a survival model based on 405 patients with PSC from 5 clinical centers. Independent validation of the model was undertaken by applying it to 124 patients who were not included in the model creation. Results Based on the multivariate analysis of 405 patients, a risk score was defined by the following formula: R=0.03 (age [y]) + 0.54 log e (bilirubin [mg/dL]) + 0.54 log e (aspartate aminotransferase [U/L]) + 1.24 (variceal bleeding [0/1]) – 0.84 (albumin [g/dL]). The risk score was used to obtain survival estimates up to 4 years of follow-up. Application of this model to an independent group of 124 patients showed good correlation between estimated and actual survival. Conclusions A new model to estimate patient survival in PSC includes more reproducible variables (age, bilirubin, albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, and history of variceal bleeding), has accuracy comparable to previous models, and obviates the need for a liver biopsy.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS) may worsen liver function and decrease survival in some patients. The Child-Pugh classification has several drawbacks when used to determine survival in such patients. The survival of 231 patients at 4 medical centers within the United States who underwent elective TIPS was studied to develop statistical models to (1) predict patient survival and (2) identify those patients whose liver-related mortality post-TIPS would be 3 months or less. Among these elective TIPS patients, 173 had the procedure for prevention of variceal rebleeding and 58 for treatment of refractory ascites. Death related to liver disease occurred in 110 patients, 70 within 3 months. Cox proportional-hazards regression identified serum concentrations of bilirubin and creatinine, international normalized ratio for prothrombin time (INR), and the cause of the underlying liver disease as predictors of survival in patients undergoing elective TIPS, either for prevention of variceal rebleeding or for treatment of refractory ascites. These variables can be used to calculate a risk score (R) for patients undergoing elective TIPS. Patients with R > 1.8 had a median survival of 3 months or less. This model was superior to both the Child-Pugh classification, as well as the Child-Pugh score, in predicting survival. Using logistic regression and the same variables, we also developed a nomogram that indicates which patients survive less than 3 months. Finally, the model was validated among an independent set of 71 patients from the Netherlands. This Mayo TIPS model may predict early death following elective TIPS for either prevention of variceal rebleeding or for treatment of refractory ascites.

The aim of our study was to quantitatively assess the impact of hepatic retransplantation on patient and graft survival and resource utilization. We studied patients undergoing hepatic retransplantation among 447 transplant recipients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) at 3 transplantation centers. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used for survival analysis. Measures of resource utilization included the duration of hospitalization, length of stay in the intensive care unit, and the duration of transplantation surgery. Forty-six (10.3%) patients received 2 or more grafts during the follow-up period (median, 2.8 years). Patients who underwent retransplantation had a 3.8-fold increase in the risk of death compared with those without retransplantation (P < .01). Retransplantation after an interval of greater than 30 days from the primary graft was associated with a 6.7-fold increase in the risk of death (P < .01). The survival following retransplantations performed 30 days or earlier was similar to primary transplantations. Resource utilization was higher in patients who underwent multiple consecutive transplantations, even after adjustment for the number of grafts during the hospitalization. Among cholestatic liver disease patients, poor survival following hepatic retransplantation is attributed to late retransplantations, namely those performed more than 30 days after the initial transplantation. While efforts must be made to improve the outcome following retransplantation, a more critical evaluation may be warranted for late retransplantation candidates.

The Child-Pugh classification is a simple, convenient prognostic measure in patients with liver cirrhosis. We investigated the relative role of the Child-Pugh classification and the Mayo model in the assessment of survival in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Of the 173 patients described in the original Mayo PSC natural history model, 147 patients had sufficient information in the medical record to allow computation of the Child-Pugh score. We used our most recent modification of the Mayo model to compute the risk score, based on patient's age, serum levels of bilirubin, albumin, and aspartate aminotransferase and history of variceal bleeding. Using the risk score (R), patients were divided into the low- (R0), intermediate- (0/= R2), and high-risk (R/= 2) groups. Kaplan-Meier estimates and proportional hazards analysis were used to evaluate the two prognostic models. Although there was a statistically significant correlation between the Child-Pugh and Mayo risk scores, two-thirds of the patients had a Child-Pugh score of 5 or 6 and a relatively wide range of risk scores (-1.1-4.3). The probability of survival for 7 years in patients in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups was 92%, 74%, and 40% for Child-Pugh class A (n = 96) and 100%, 62%, and 28% for Child-Pugh class B patients (n = 44), respectively. There were only a small number (n = 7) of Child-Pugh class C patients. In our age-adjusted multivariate analysis, each unit increase in the Mayo risk score was associated with a 2.5-fold increase in the risk of death (95% confidence interval: 1.8-3.4, P.01), whereas Child-Pugh classification had no significant impact on survival (Child-Pugh B vs. A: risk ratio = 1.1 [95% confidence interval: 0.6-2.0]; Child-Pugh C versus A: risk ratio = 0.6 [95% confidence interval: 0. 2-1.8]). In contrast to the Child-Pugh classification, which was developed for advanced liver cirrhosis, the Mayo model provides valid survival information, particularly in patients early in the course of PSC.

We examined the clinical usefulness of measurements of antimitochondrial autoantibodies (AMA) in predicting disease progression in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). We determined the relationships between AMA levels measured by indirect immunofluorescence (IF) and those measured by quantitative enzyme immunoassays (EIAs) using recombinant 2-oxo-acid dehydrogenase complex (2-OADC) proteins and the Mayo Risk Score, an established indicator of disease progression in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). Results of tests for AMA by either method correlated weakly (r = .24 to .30) with disease progression as indicated by Mayo Risk Scores. The levels of AMA to 2-OADC proteins varied by more than 200-fold between patients but remained relatively constant over time in individual patients. Despite being positively correlated with Mayo Risk Score results, the levels of AMA to 2-OADC proteins were not useful for predicting disease progression in individual patients with PBC. In addition, we found no significant differences in the levels of autoantibodies to 2-OADC proteins among patients with different histological stages of disease. Our results show that measurements of AMA by IF or by quantitative EIA methods with recombinant 2-OADC proteins are not useful parameters for predicting disease progression in patients with PBC.

Objective: Allelic variation (rs738409CG) in adiponutrin (patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3, PNPLA3) has been associated with hepatic steatosis and liver fibrosis. The physiologic impact of the PNPLA3 G allele may be exacerbated in patients with severe obesity. In this study, we investigated the interactions of PNPLA3 rs738409 with a broad panel of metabolic and histologic characteristics of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in patients with medically complicated obesity. Design and Methods: Consecutive patients undergoing bariatric surgery were selected for a prospective study. They underwent extensive laboratory and histologic (liver biopsy) assessment, as well as evaluation of rs738409 polymorphism by TaqMan assay. Results: Only 12 (8.3%) of the 144 patients had normal liver histology, with 72 (50%) NASH, of whom 15 (10.4% of total patients) had fibrosis stage 2-3. PNPLA3 GG genotype correlated positively (P 145 IU/l, glucose >100 mg/dl, and C-reactive protein (CRP) >0.8 mg/dl. The probability of NASH increased from 9% (no risk factor) to 82% if all four risk factors were present. Conclusions: In this cohort of patients with medically complicated obesity, PNPLA3 rs738409 G allelic expression is associated with hepatic (NASH) and nonhepatic complications of obesity, such as insulin resistance. These novel findings may be related to a greater impact of PNPLA3 variant in magnitude and scope in patients with severe obesity than in less obese populations. Further studies are needed to characterize the nature of these associations.

Introduction Significant impairments in health-related quality of life (HRQL) in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease have been previously described. The disease-specific HRQL among patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), however, remains unknown. Aim To determine the degree of construct validity of the Chronic Liver Disease Questionnaire (CLDQ) in adults with NASH. Methods Participants referred for the evaluation of histology-proven NASH at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, between 1996 and 2000, were evaluated. HRQL assessment by the Short-Form 36 (SF-36) Health Survey and CLD) was performed. The primary outcome was to determine the level of correlation between overall and subscale scores for the CLDQ and SF-36 instruments. Results Among 79 participants (70%) with NASH completing both questionnaires (mean age, 51.2 years with 64% female gender), excellent reliability was noted for the CLDQ instrument. Significant reductions in all SF-36 domains (p

Transfusion-related pulmonary complications are leading causes of morbidity and mortality attributed to transfusion. Observational studies suggest an important role for red blood cell (RBC) storage duration in these adverse outcomes.To evaluate the impact of RBC storage duration on short-term pulmonary function as well as immunologic and coagulation status in mechanically ventilated patients receiving RBC transfusion.This is a double-blind, randomized, clinical trial comparing fresh (≤5 d of storage) versus standard issue single-unit RBC transfusion in adult intubated and mechanically ventilated patients. The primary outcome is the change in pulmonary gas exchange as assessed by the partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen concentration ratio (ΔPa(O(2))/Fi(O(2))). Secondary outcomes include changes in immune and coagulation status.Fifty patients were randomized to receive fresh RBCs and an additional 50 patients to standard issue RBCs. Median storage age was 4.0 days (interquartile range, 3.0-5.0) and 26.5 days (interquartile range, 21.0-36.0) in the fresh RBC group and standard issue RBC group, respectively. No differences were noted in the primary outcome of ΔPa(O(2))/Fi(O(2)) (difference between the mean ΔPa(O(2))/Fi(O(2)) in the standard issue RBC group vs. the fresh RBC group, -11.5; 95% confidence interval, -35.3 to 12.3; P = 0.22). Similarly, no significant differences were noted in markers of immunologic or coagulation status.In this randomized clinical trial, no differences were noted in early measures of pulmonary function or in immunologic or coagulation status when comparing fresh versus standard issue single-unit RBC transfusion. Clinical trial registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00751322).

The progression of primary biliary cirrhosis was studied in 312 patients who were seen at the Mayo Clinic between January 1974 and May 1984. Follow-up was extended to April 30, 1988, by which time 140 of the patients had died and 29 had undergone orthotopic liver transplantation. These patients generated 1,945 patient visits that enabled us to study the change in the prognostic variables of primary biliary cirrhosis (age, bilirubin value, albumin value, prothrombin time and edema) from the time of referral. Also, using this database and the Cox proportional-hazards regression model, we developed an updated model for primary biliary cirrhosis that can be used to predict short-term survival at any time in the course of the disease. This model uses the values of the prognostic variables measured at the latest patient visit. Comparison of predicted survival from the update model and the natural history model of primary biliary cirrhosis showed that the updated model was superior to the original model for predicting short-term survival. This finding applied to both the Mayo Clinic patients and an independent set of 83 Dutch patients. The Mayo updated model is recommended for improving the accuracy of predictions of survival during the 2 yr after a patient visit.

Amiodarone has been implicated as a risk factor for acute lung injury (ALI) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) when used in the hospital. This study aims to estimate whether prehospital amiodarone also increases the risk of ALI/ARDS.Adult patients admitted to 22 centers with at least 1 risk factor for developing ALI were recruited. In a secondary analysis of this cohort, the prehospital use of amiodarone was documented on admission, and the patients followed for the primary outcome of ALI and secondary outcomes of ARDS, the need for invasive ventilation, and mortality. Dose/duration of amiodarone therapy was not available. Propensity matching was performed to account for imbalances in being assigned to amiodarone. The adjusted risk for ALI/ARDS was then estimated from a conditional logistic regression model of this propensity-matched set.Forty of 5584 patients were on amiodarone at the time of hospitalization; of those, 6 developed ALI, with 5 progressing to ARDS. In comparison, 371 patients not on amiodarone developed ALI, with 224 having ARDS. After propensity score matching, the prehospital use of amiodarone was not statistically associated with an increased risk for all ALI (odds ratio [OR], 1.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7-5.0; P = .25), invasive ventilation (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.0-3.6; P = .059), or in-hospital mortality (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.5-2.9; P = .75); but its use appeared to significantly increase the risk for ARDS (OR 3.8; 95% CI, 1.1-13.1; P = .036).Prehospital use of amiodarone may independently increase the risk for ARDS in patients who have at least 1 predisposing condition for ALI.

To evaluate the association between prehospitalization aspirin therapy and incident acute lung injury in a heterogeneous cohort of at-risk medical patients.This is a secondary analysis of a prospective multicenter international cohort investigation.Multicenter observational study including 20 US hospitals and two hospitals in Turkey.Consecutive, adult, nonsurgical patients admitted to the hospital with at least one major risk factor for acute lung injury.None.Baseline characteristics and acute lung injury risk factors/modifiers were identified. The presence of aspirin therapy and the propensity to receive this therapy were determined. The primary outcome was acute lung injury during hospitalization. Secondary outcomes included intensive care unit and hospital mortality and intensive care unit and hospital length of stay. Twenty-two hospitals enrolled 3855 at-risk patients over a 6-month period. Nine hundred seventy-six (25.3%) were receiving aspirin at the time of hospitalization. Two hundred forty (6.2%) patients developed acute lung injury. Univariate analysis noted a reduced incidence of acute lung injury in those receiving aspirin therapy (odds ratio [OR], 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46-0.90; p = .010). This association was attenuated in a stratified analysis based on deciles of aspirin propensity scores (Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel pooled OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.48-1.03; p = .072).After adjusting for the propensity to receive aspirin therapy, no statistically significant associations between prehospitalization aspirin therapy and acute lung injury were identified; however, a prospective clinical trial to further evaluate this association appears warranted.

Rationale: Accurate, early identification of patients at risk for developing acute lung injury (ALI) provides the opportunity to test and implement secondary prevention strategies. Objectives: To determine the frequency and outcome of ALI development in patients at risk and validate a lung injury prediction score (LIPS). Methods: In this prospective multicenter observational cohort study, predisposing conditions and risk modifiers predictive of ALI development were identified from routine clinical data available during initial evaluation. The discrimination of the model was assessed with area under receiver operating curve (AUC). The risk of death from ALI was determined after adjustment for severity of illness and predisposing conditions. Measurements and Main Results: Twenty-two hospitals enrolled 5,584 patients at risk All developed a median of 2 (interquartile range 1-4) days after initial evaluation in 377 (6.8%; 148 ALI-only, 229 adult respiratory distress syndrome) patients. The frequency of ALI varied according to predisposing conditions (from 3% in pancreatitis to 26% after smoke inhalation). LIPS discriminated patients who developed ALI from those who did not with an AUC of 0.80(95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.82). When adjusted for severity of illness and predisposing conditions, development of ALI increased the risk of in-hospital death (odds ratio, 4.1; 95% confidence interval, 2.9-5.7). Conclusions: ALI occurrence varies according to predisposing conditions and carries an independently poor prognosis. Using routinely available clinical data, LIPS identifies patients at high risk for ALI early in the course of their illness. This model will alert clinicians about the risk of ALI and facilitate testing and implementation of ALI prevention strategies. United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA HL78743-01A1, 1 KL2 RR024151 Mayo Clinic Critical Care Research Committee Sanofi-Aventis Pfizer University of Missouri Vital Therapies Maquet Inc. Eli Lilly Artisan Pharma Allen Grice Ammons American Lung Association American College of Surgeons Vapotherm in industry United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS) United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Center for Research Resources (NCRR) - KL2RR024151 United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Heart Lung & Blood Institute (NHLBI) - K23HL087934 Walker

Three prospective studies from the early 1980s found that high scores on the Hostility (Ho) Scale of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) were associated with an increased incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality from CHD and other causes. In the current study, the association between the Ho score and subsequent health status was examined in a 20-year follow-up of 620 general medical patients who completed the MMPI between 1962 and 1965. Univariately, the Ho score from the MMPI was a significant factor for predicting the development of CHD, CHD-related mortality, and total mortality. When two simple risk factors for CHD--age and sex--were also considered, however, the MMPI Ho score was no longer a significant predictive factor.

Rationale: Significant progress has been made in understanding the pathogenesis of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Recent advances in hospital practice may have reduced the incidence of this lethal syndrome. Objectives: To observe incidence trends and associated outcomes of ARDS. Methods: This population-based cohort study was conducted in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Using a validated screening protocol, investigators identified intensive care patients with acute hypoxemia and bilateral pulmonary infiltrates. The presence of ARDS was independently confirmed according to American-European Consensus Conference criteria. The incidence of ARDS and associated outcomes were compared over the 8-year study period (2001–2008). Measurements and Main Results: Over the 8-year period, critically ill Olmsted County residents presented with increasing severity of acute illness, a greater number of comorbidities, and a higher prevalence of major predisposing conditions for ARDS. The ARDS incidence decreased significantly from 82.4 to 38.9 per 100,000 person-years during the study period (P < 0.001). A decline in hospital-acquired ARDS (P < 0.001) was responsible for the fall in the incidence density with no change on admission (P = 0.877). Overall, mortality and hospital and intensive care unit lengths of stay decreased over time (P < 0.001), whereas the ARDS case-fatality did not change significantly. Conclusions: Despite an increase in patients' severity of illness, number of comorbidities, and prevalence of major ARDS risk factors, the incidence of ARDS in this suburban community decreased by more than half. Correlation of the observed findings with changes in health care delivery may have important implications for the planning of acute care services in other regions.

With early posttransplant bone loss, orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) recipients experience a high rate of fracturing and some avascular necrosis (AVN), but little is known about the incidence of and predictive factors for these skeletal complications. We studied 360 consecutive patients who underwent transplantation for primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and assessed both vertebral and nonvertebral (rib, pelvic, and femur) fractures in a protocolized fashion. Before OLT, 20% of the patients had experienced fracturing, and 1.4% of the patients had experienced AVN. Following OLT, there was a sharp increase in fracturing, with a 30% cumulative incidence of fractures at 1 year and 46% at 8 years after transplantation. In contrast to previous studies, there was a similar incidence of posttransplant vertebral and nonvertebral fractures. The greatest risk factors for posttransplant fracturing were pretransplant fracturing and the severity of osteopenia and posttransplant glucocorticoids. Nine percent of the liver recipients experienced AVN after OLT, and this correlated with pretransplant and posttransplant lipid metabolism, bone disease (bone mineral density and fracturing), and posttransplant glucocorticoids. A novel association between cholestasis and AVN was also identified, the mechanism for which is not known. Conclusion: Fortunately, recent years have seen an increase in the bone mass of liver recipients and, along with this, less fracturing and less AVN. Nonetheless, 25% of patients undergoing OLT for chronic cholestatic liver disease still develop de novo fractures after OLT; this situation demands an ongoing search for effective therapeutic agents for these patients. (HEPATOLOGY 2007.)

Acute lung injury (ALI) that develops 6 hours after transfusion (TRALI) is the leading cause of transfusion-related mortality. Several transfusion characteristics have been postulated as risk factors for TRALI, but the evidence is limited to retrospective studies.To compare patient and transfusion risk factors between patients who do and do not develop ALI.In this prospective cohort study, consecutive transfused critically ill patients were closely observed for development of ALI. Donor samples were collected from the transfusion bags. Risk factors were compared between patients who developed ALI after transfusion and transfused control patients, matched by age, sex, and admission diagnosis.Seventy-four of 901 transfused patients developed ALI within 6 hours of transfusion (8%). Compared with transfused control subjects, patients with ALI were more likely to have sepsis (37 vs. 22%, P = 0.016) and a history of chronic alcohol abuse (37 vs. 18%, P = 0.006). When adjusted for patient characteristics, transfusion of plasma from female donors (odds ratio [OR], 5.09; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.37-18.85) rather than male donors (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 0.76 to 3.37), number of pregnancies among the donors (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.34), number of donor units positive for anti-granulocyte antibodies (OR, 4.85; 95% CI, 1.32-17.86) and anti-HLA class II antibodies (OR, 3.08; 95% CI, 1.15-8.25), and concentration of lysophosphatidylcholine in the donor product (OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.10 to 2.59) were associated with the development of ALI.Both patient and transfusion risk factors determine the probability of ALI after transfusion. Transfusion factors represent attractive targets for the prevention of ALI.

Fracturing after liver transplantation (OLT) occurs due to the combination of preexisting low bone mineral density (BMD) and early posttransplant bone loss, the risk factors for which are poorly defined. The prevalence and predictive factors for hepatic osteopenia and osteoporosis, posttransplant bone loss, and subsequent bone gain were studied by the long-term posttransplant follow-up of 360 consecutive adult patients with end-stage primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Only 20% of patients with advanced PBC or PSC have normal bone mass. Risk factors for low spinal BMD are low body mass index, older age, postmenopausal status, muscle wasting, high alkaline phosphatase and low serum albumin. A high rate of spinal bone loss occurred in the first 4 posttransplant months (annual rate of 16%) especially in those with younger age, PSC, higher pretransplant bone density, no inflammatory bowel disease, shorter duration of liver disease, current smoking, and ongoing cholestasis at 4 months. Factors favoring spinal bone gain from 4 to 24 months after transplantation were lower baseline and/or 4-month bone density, premenopausal status, lower cumulative glucocorticoids, no ongoing cholestasis, and higher levels of vitamin D and parathyroid hormone. Bone mass therefore improves most in patients with lowest pretransplant BMD who undergo successful transplantation with normal hepatic function and improved gonadal and nutritional status. Patients transplanted most recently have improved bone mass before OLT, and although bone loss still occurs early after OLT, these patients also have a greater recovery in BMD over the years following OLT.

This study was conducted to examine factors affecting health insurance and employment status in long-term liver transplant (OLT) recipients. All adult primary OLT recipients surviving at least 1 year were surveyed using existing questionnaires. Out of 217 eligible recipients, 186 (86%) responded. The median age of respondents was 55 years with a median survival after OLT of 3.4 years. The majority (98%) of respondents had health insurance coverage. Thirty-four (18%) reported having lost and/or having been denied health insurance since OLT, and 63 (34%) switched health insurance since OLT. Of the 179 that reported employment status, 98 (55%) were employed, including homemakers and students, while 39 (22%) were retired and 42 (24%) unemployed. The majority (76%) of those unemployed cited poor health as the reason for unemployment, followed by 5 (12%) who feared loss of disability or Medicaid benefits. Fourteen reported to have been denied or terminated from employment because of their transplant. In the regression analysis, employment prior to transplantation (odds ratio (OR) = 5.1), age less than 57 (OR = 5.1), physical function score >52.4 (OR = 3.6) and general health score >33.3 (OR = 7.6) were significantly associated with employment. These data may help identify high-risk pre-OLT patients for intervention measures such as work rehabilitation.

Assessing severity of disease in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is useful for predicting mortality, guiding treatment decisions, and stratifying patients for therapeutic trials. The traditional disease-specific prognostic model used for this purpose is the Maddrey discriminant function (DF). The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) is a more recently developed scoring system that has been validated as an independent predictor of patient survival in candidates for liver transplantation. The aim of the present study was to examine the ability of MELD to predict mortality in patients with AH. A retrospective cohort study of 73 patients diagnosed with AH between 1995 and 2001 was performed at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. MELD was the only independent predictor of mortality in patients with AH. MELD was comparable to DF in predicting 30-day mortality (c-statistic and 95% CI: 0.83 [0.71-0.96] and 0.74 [0.62-0.87] for MELD and DF, respectively, not significant) and 90-day mortality (c-statistic and 95% CI: 0.86 [0.77-0.96] and 0.83 [0.74-0.92] for MELD and DF, respectively, not significant). A MELD score of 21 had a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 75% in predicting 90-day mortality in AH. In conclusion, MELD is useful for predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality in patients with AH and maintains some practical and statistical advantages over DF in predicting mortality rate in these patients. MELD is a useful clinical tool for gauging mortality and guiding treatment decisions in patients with AH, particularly those complicated by ascites and/or encephalopathy.

Thirty-three patients with cholestatic liver disease underwent histomorphometric assessment of paired bone biopsy specimens at time of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) and 4 months thereafter. At 4 months after OLT, bone metabolism improved, with bone formation increasing to normal and no change in bone resorption. Early post-transplant bone loss may be attributed to an additional insult to bone formation early after transplantation.Patients with advanced liver disease, especially chronic cholestasis, often have osteopenia, which worsens early after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) before starting to recover. The changes in bone metabolism leading to this rapid loss of bone after OLT, and to its recovery, are poorly defined.In thirty-three patients with advanced chronic cholestatic liver disease, tetracycline-labeled bone biopsy specimens were analyzed prospectively at time of OLT and at 4 months after OLT, as part of a randomized trial to study the efficacy of calcitonin on post-transplant bone loss. Hierarchical cluster analysis of histomorphometric parameters was performed in an attempt to establish the functional grouping of individual histomorphometric parameters before and after OLT.Results showed that from the time of OLT to 4 months after OLT, bone mineral density of the lumbar spine and histomorphometric parameters of bone volume decreased, consistent with early post-transplant bone loss. Histomorphometric resorption parameters were increased before OLT, with no change after OLT. Histomorphometric formation parameters increased from low values before OLT to normal values at 4 months after OLT, with the exception of mean wall thickness values, which further decreased after OLT, suggesting an additional insult to bone formation during the study period. Histomorphometric changes after OLT were similar in female and male patients, pre- and postmenopausal women, and in patients treated and not treated with calcitonin. Hierarchical cluster analysis suggested that before OLT, bone resorption was functioning independently of bone formation, but that by 4 months after OLT, their coupled relationship had improved. Therefore, despite post-transplant bone loss, by 4 months after OLT, bone metabolism had improved, with increased bone formation and more coupled bone balance, as suggested by hierarchical cluster analysis.

Objective To study the association between explanatory style, using scores from the Optimism-Pessimism (PSM) scale of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI), and self-reported health status, using scores from the 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36). Patients and Methods A total of 447 patients who completed the MMPI between 1962 and 1965 as self-referred general medical outpatients and also completed the SF-36 thirty years later compose the current study sample. The associations between the scores on the SF-36 and the MMPI PSM scale were evaluated by analysis of variance and linear regression analysis. Results Of 447 patients, 101 were classified as optimistic, 272 as mixed, and 74 as pessimistic. Scores on all 8 health concept domains from the SF-36 were significantly poorer in the pessimistic group than in both the optimistic and the mixed group. Conclusion A pessimistic explanatory style, reflected by higher PSM scale scores, was significantly associated with a self-report of poorer physical and mental functioning on the SF-36 30 years later.

Objective To address the effect of ursodeoxycholic acid therapy on development of esophageal varices in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. Materia and Methods: We compared, as part of a prospective treatment trial, the risk of varices developing in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis who received ursodeoxycholic acid (13 to 15 mg/kg daily) versus those who received placebo for up to 4 years. Upper endoscopy was performed every 2 years or as indicated clinically. At the end of the 4-year period, all patients in the placebo group were offered ursodeoxycholic acid therapy. During follow-up, the risk of developing endoscopically confirmed varices was assessed. Results The 180 patients who entered the ursodeoxycholic acid trial were assessed for the presence or absence of varices by esophagogastroduodenoscopy; 139 patients had no varices, and 41 patients demonstrated varices on initial examination. At 4 years, the risk of newly developing endoscopically confirmed varices was 16% for the ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients and 58% for the placebo-treated patients ( p = 0.001). Thus, the use of ursodeoxycholic acid was associated with a significantly lower risk of developing varices in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. Conclusion In addition to biochemical improvement, delay in death, and prolongation of time to orthotopic liver transplantation, ursodeoxycholic acid has now been demonstrated to decrease the risk of esophageal varices developing in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) has been shown to be a safe and effective treatment for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis; however, its effect on patient survival is less certain. To study this issue, the survival of patients receiving long-term UDCA treatment was compared with that of a control group, adjusting for their risk scores based on the Mayo model. METHODS: One hundred eighty patients were randomized to receive either 13-15 mg.kg-1.day-1 UDCA (n = 89) of placebo (n = 91). After the study closure, the patients originally receiving placebo were switched to active drug, and prospective follow-up was continued for 3 years. Patients were censored at the time of transplantation, voluntary withdrawal, of crossover of the placebo group (efficacy analysis). The survival of the two groups was adjusted for risk scores at the time of entry to the study. A secondary analysis was an intent-to-treat analysis, whereby patients were followed up regardless of their voluntary withdrawal or crossover. RESULTS: At the time of analysis, the patients receiving placebo had a significantly increased risk of death and/or requiring transplantation (relative risk, 2.6; P=0.04) compared with the UDCA-treated patients CONCLUSIONS: UDCA should be considered as a safe, effective, and life- extending treatment for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. (Gastroenterology 1996 May;110(5):1515-8)

A recent mandate emphasizes severity of liver disease to determine priorities in allocating organs for liver transplantation and necessitates a disease severity index based on generalizable, verifiable, and easily obtained variables. The aim of the study was to examine the generalizability of a model previously created to estimate survival of patients undergoing the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure in patient groups with a broader range of disease severity and etiology. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) consists of serum bilirubin and creatinine levels, International Normalized Ratio (INR) for prothrombin time, and etiology of liver disease. The model's validity was tested in 4 independent data sets, including (1) patients hospitalized for hepatic decompensation (referred to as "hospitalized" patients), (2) ambulatory patients with noncholestatic cirrhosis, (3) patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), and (4) unselected patients from the 1980s with cirrhosis (referred to as "historical" patients). In these patients, the model's ability to classify patients according to their risk of death was examined using the concordance (c)-statistic. The MELD scale performed well in predicting death within 3 months with a c-statistic of (1) 0.87 for hospitalized patients, (2) 0.80 for noncholestatic ambulatory patients, (3) 0.87 for PBC patients, and (4) 0.78 for historical cirrhotic patients. Individual complications of portal hypertension had minimal impact on the model's prediction (range of improvement in c-statistic

The natural history of primary sclerosing cholangitis was studied in 426 patients from five medical centers. The median follow-up time was 3.0 years (range, 0.01-16.6 years); 100 patients had died by the time of last follow-up. Survival analysis (Cox proportional-hazards regression) was used to identify the variables most useful in predicting survival of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis. Serum bilirubin concentration, histological stage on liver biopsy, age, and the presence of splenomegaly were independent predictors of a high risk of dying. A mathematical model to predict survival of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (based on referral values of those predictors) was statistically validated using two methods. Confidence intervals for predicting patient-specific survival probabilities are also presented. This model to predict survival could be used to stratify participants in therapeutic trials, counsel patients and their families, decide on candidacy for and timing of liver transplantation, and provide mathematical controls for evaluating the efficacy of therapies for primary sclerosing cholangitis, including transplantation.

Introduction Prediction of death and prolonged mechanical ventilation is important in terms of projecting resource utilization and in establishing protocols for clinical studies of acute lung injury (ALI). We aimed to identify risk factors for a combined end-point of death and/or prolonged ventilator dependence and developed an ALI-specific prediction model. Methods In this retrospective analysis of three multicenter clinical studies, we identified predictors of death or ventilator dependence from variables prospectively recorded during the first three days of mechanical ventilation. After the prediction model was derived in an international cohort of patients with ALI, it was validated in two independent samples of patients enrolled in a clinical trial involving 17 academic centers and a North American population-based cohort. Results A combined end-point of death and/or ventilator dependence at 14 days or later occurred in 68% of patients in the international cohort, 60% of patients in the clinical trial, and 59% of patients in the population-based cohort. In the derivation cohort, a model based on age, oxygenation index on day 3, and cardiovascular failure on day 3 predicted death and/or ventilator dependence. The prediction model performed better in the clinical trial validation cohort (area under the receiver operating curve 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.84) than in the population-based validation cohort (0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.65 to 0.76). Conclusion A model based on age and cardiopulmonary function three days after the intubation is able to predict, moderately well, a combined end-point of death and/or prolonged mechanical ventilation in patients with ALI.