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The social and economic impacts of COVID-19 have been devastating for many, and collectively young people generally fared worse than older adults, with the impact amongst young people also being highly uneven. Most studies on this topic focus on Global North contexts, with experiences in the Global South being less well understood. Focusing on young people in Nepal and Indonesia who were especially exposed to the fallout from the pandemic (in part due to their occupations), this paper analyzes over 1400 weekly diary entries from 100 respondents written across four months in the first half of 2021. Participants recall increasingly precarious individual and family situations due to pandemic-related livelihood upheavals and insufficient access to social protection. Amongst diverse ‘coping strategies’, many turned to debt to smooth fluctuating incomes–leading to both financial and social obligations and forcing sometimes life-altering decisions such as leaving education and moving into risky work. Spiralling indebtedness may have consequences for livelihoods across young people’s life-courses; with futures mortgaged to survive precarity at the peak of the Delta wave of COVID-19. Looking ahead, policy makers should reconfigure disaster responses and social protection with a youth-lens to ensure a robust, fair and sustainable recovery from future crises, mitigating inter-generational scarring effects.

Past episodes of mass uprising and successful transitions from dictatorial rule in Asia and the Middle East and North Africa offer several important lessons for Myanmar. Following weeks and months of popular demonstrations, the fall of presidents Ferdinand Marcos in 1986, Suharto in 1998 and Hosni Mubarak during 2011 Arab Spring, came only after the defection of senior military officers to the people’s cause. The chapter discusses a new political possibility which could be caused by emerging cleavages within and defection of the security forces. As the economic and political fractures in the monolith of Myanmar’s military worsen, the resistance movement is more likely to succeed if it is able to win-over junta softliners who may be open to a different way forward. A chance of an off-ramp depends on whether the democracy movement can offer segments of the security apparatus and current junta collaborators an agreement capable of securing defection.

What is happening • Observations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Gulf Stream System since the 1980s have shown a strengthening in the 1990s and a weakening in the 2000s, with no clear overall trend. • Shifts in North-east Atlantic circulation, leading to a greater influence of warmer subtropical-origin waters which can impact marine ecosystems and economically important fish species such as mackerel. The changing subpolar ocean circulation is also having impacts on the food supply for deep-sea ecosystems. • The subpolar gyre recorded its freshest values on record in the 2010s. Ongoing freshwater build-up in the rapidly changing Arctic Ocean may exacerbate this freshening. What could happen • Projections from climate models consistently project a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation due to anthropogenic climate change. • Warming of Atlantic waters is expected to reduce the depth of mixed layers and limit nutrient supply to surface layers.

We demonstrate the utility and reproducibility of the saltmarsh foraminifera-based ‘geological tide gauge’ (GTG) approach by developing two independent records of relative sea-level (RSL) change for Dublin, Ireland. Our records, recovered from two different saltmarshes, indicate that RSL rose at a century-scale rate of 1.5 ± 0.9 mm yr–1 over the last 200 years. This compares favourably with the shorter, but more precise, mean sea level (MSL) record from the Dublin Port tide gauge, which indicates long-term (1953–2016 CE) rise at a rate of 1.1 ± 0.5 mm yr–1. When corrected for the influence of glacio-isostatic adjustment our saltmarsh-based reconstruction suggests sea levels in Dublin rose at a rate of 1.6 ± 0.9 mm yr–1 since the start of the 19th century, which is in excellent agreement with the regional value of MSL rise over the same period (1.5 ± 0.2 mm yr–1) calculated from a compilation of tide gauge records around Britain. Whilst our record has decadal-scale temporal resolution (1 sample every 8 years), we are currently unable to resolve multidecadal-scale variations in the rate of sea-level rise which are masked by the size of the vertical uncertainties (± 20 cm) associated with our reconstruction of palaeomarsh-surface elevation. We discuss the challenges of applying the GTG approach in the typically minerogenic saltmarshes of the NE Atlantic margin and outline potential solutions that would facilitate the production of Common Era RSL reconstructions in the region.

There have been increasing losses from freshwater flooding associated with United States(US) landfalling hurricanes in recent years. This study analyses the relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA), wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP)for the period 1998-2017. Based on our statistical analysis of observation data, for a 1 °C SST increase in the main development region (MDR), there is a 6% increase (not statistically significant)in the TCP rate (mmhr−1 ) over the Atlantic, which rises to over 40% over land (US states) and appears linked not only to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship but also to the increase in tropical cyclone (TC)intensity associated with increasing SSTA. Total annual TCP is significantly correlated with the SST in the MDR. Over the Atlantic there is an increase of 116% and over land there is an increase of 140% in total TCP for a 1 °C rise in SST in the MDR. Again, this is linked to the increase in windspeed and the number of TC tracks which also rises with positive SSTAs in the MDR. Our analysis of landfalling TC tracks for nine US states provides a systematic review and highlights how TCP varies by US state. The highest number of landfalls per year are found in Florida, North Carolina and Texas. The median tropical cyclone translation speed is 20.3kmhr−1 , although this falls to 16.5 kmhr−1 over land and there is a latitudinal dependence on translation speed. Overall, we find a different TCP response to rising SST over the ocean and land, with the response over land over four times more than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. The links between SSTA in the MDR and both TCP rate and annual total TCP provide useful insights for seasonal to decadal US flood prediction from TCs.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial element of the Earth's climate system, is projected to weaken over the course of the twenty-first century which could have far reaching consequences for the occurrence of extreme weather events, regional sea level rise, monsoon regions and the marine ecosystem. The latest IPCC report puts the likelihood of such a weakening as ‘very likely’. As our confidence in future climate projections depends largely on the ability to model the past climate, we take an in-depth look at the difference in the twentieth century evolution of the AMOC based on observational data (including direct observations and various proxy data) and model data from climate model ensembles. We show that both the magnitude of the trend in the AMOC over different time periods and often even the sign of the trend differs between observations and climate model ensemble mean, with the magnitude of the trend difference becoming even greater when looking at the CMIP6 ensemble compared to CMIP5. We discuss possible reasons for this observation-model discrepancy and question what it means to have higher confidence in future projections than historical reproductions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.

The summer of 2023 had been notable for a number of climate extremes: sea ice in the Antarctic dropped to its lowest for the time of year since satellite records began in the 1970s (NASA Earth Observatory, 2023), terrestrial heatwaves engulfed southern Europe and southern United States/Mexico that would have been ‘virtually impossible’ without climate change (WorldWeatherAttribution, 2023), and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic reached their highest since satellite records began in 1982 (NOAA, 2023). In concert with these terrestrial heatwaves and high Atlantic SSTs, a severe marine heatwave(MHW) developed in the eastern North Atlantic, west of Ireland (Figure 1a). Except for a narrow band close to the coast from Greenland to Canada, SSTs everywhere in the North Atlantic were above the 41-yearaverage (1982–2023), with many regions experiencing temperatures 2 degC higher than average. In the study region westof Ireland (highlighted in Figure 1b), the SST reached an impressive 4 degC above average.

The Myanmar military’s seizure of power in February 2021 led to a breakdown in the collaborative state–society relations that had characterised the COVID-19 response during the first year of the pandemic. This chapter examines the dynamics of cooperation and contention between successive administrations (civilian and military) and the enduring role of Myanmar’s vibrant, non-state charitable sector in pandemic response prior to and following the coup. Assessing claims made prior to the coup that the intermediation of state pandemic social aid was weaponised by the National League for Democracy, the chapter focuses on how the junta’s abandonment of the government’s limited social stimulus initiatives, and their adoption of strategies to empower pro-military or neutral loyalists at a local level, has fractured the state–society collaboration that had helped contain and manage COVID-19 in 2020. The chapter identifies four key strategies through which the junta has sought to discipline Myanmar’s vibrant, nonstate social sector: suppressing perceived dissenters, empowering loyalists, disciplining charitable actors and partnering with neutral welfare groups. We conclude by reflecting on debates about the meaning of neutrality in the context of the new dictatorship, urging the need for greater international support to non-state welfare provision in the short term.

Hurricane activity has been higher since 1995 than in the 1970s and 1980s. This rise in activity has been linked to a warming Atlantic. In this study, we consider variability of the volume of water warmer than 26.5 ºC, considered widely to be the temperature threshold crucial to hurricane development. We find the depth of the 26.5 ºC isotherm better correlated with seasonal hurricane counts than SST in the early part of the Atlantic hurricane season in some regions. The volume of water transformed by surface heat fluxes to temperatures above 26.5 ºC is directly calculated using the Water Mass Transformation framework. This volume is compared with the year-to-year changes in the volume of water of this temperature to see how much of the volume can be explained using this calculation. In some years, there is notable correspondence between transformed and observed volume anomalies, but anomalies in other years must be largely associated with other processes, such as the divergence of horizontal heat transport associated with the AMOC. This technique provides evidence that, in a given year, coordinated physical mechanisms are responsible for the build-up of anomalous ocean heat; not only net surface heat exchange but also the convergence of horizontal heat transport from ocean currents, to provide fuel for larger numbers of intense hurricanes.

Ocean circulation redistributes heat, freshwater, carbon, and nutrients all around the globe. Because of their importance in regulating climate, weather, extreme events, sea level, fisheries, and ecosystems, large-scale ocean currents should be monitored continuously. The Atlantic is unique as the only ocean basin where heat is, on average, transported northward in both hemispheres as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The largely unrestricted connection with the Arctic and Southern Oceans allows ocean currents to exchange heat, freshwater, and other properties with polar latitudes.

Seasonal to decadal variations in Northern Hemisphere jet stream latitude and speed over land (Eurasia, North America) and oceanic (North Atlantic, North Pacific) regions are presented for the period 1871–2011 from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. Significant regional differences are seen on seasonal to decadal timescales. Seasonally, the jet latitude range is lower over the oceans compared to land, reduced from 20° over Eurasia to 10° over the North Atlantic where the ocean meridional heat transport is greatest. The mean jet latitude range is at a minimum in winter (DJF), particularly along the western boundary of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where the land-sea contrast and SST gradients are strongest. The 141-year trends in jet latitude and speed show differences on a regional basis. The North Atlantic has significant increasing jet latitude trends in all seasons, up to 3° in winter. Eurasia has significant increasing trends in winter and summer, however, no increase is seen across the North Pacific or North America. Jet speed shows significant increases evident in winter (up to 4.7 ms−1), spring and autumn over the North Atlantic, Eurasia and North America however, over the North Pacific no increase is observed. Long term trends are generally overlaid by multidecadal variability, particularly evident in the North Pacific, where 20-year variability in jet latitude and jet speed are seen, associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which explains 50% of the winter variance in jet latitude since 1940. The results highlight that northern hemisphere jet variability and trends differ on a regional basis (North Atlantic, North Pacific, Eurasia and North America) on seasonal to decadal timescales, suggesting that different mechanisms are influencing the jet latitude and speed. This is important from a climate modelling perspective and for climate predictions in the near and longer term.

Economic justice was the catch-cry of Burma's independence struggle and a defining issue of postcolonial party politics. Yet, despite severe economic disparities and social vulnerability, class and inequality are now largely absent from the ideology and policy platform of Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). What explains the absence of class inequality from contemporary Burmese politics? Drawing on historical research and extensive fieldwork in provincial Myanmar since 2013, this article focuses on how the junta’s post-1988 strategy of state-building shaped the political development of the NLD. It focuses specifically on how the military junta's dissembling of Ne Win’s dysfunctional welfare state, control over market reform, and selective suppression of civil society privileged economic elites and religious philanthropic networks within the democracy movement while undermining labour activists and more overtly partisan groups. The resulting weakness of class-based interests within the democracy movement prior to 2011 has enabled commercial elites and market solutions to steer the organisational and ideological direction of Myanmar's most prominent democratic political vehicle, the NLD, since liberalisation. Reflecting these social and institutional constraints, after taking office in 2016 the programmatic agenda of Suu Kyi’s NLD has plotted market liberalisation, foreign investment, and individual moral revival as the primary paths to a more "democratic" Myanmar, largely ignoring the dire inequality and economic injustices bequeathed by military dictatorship. If Myanmar's democracy is to endure, the article concludes that structural reforms must be advanced, especially by the NLD, which encourage political representatives to address the precarity experienced by ordinary people.

At 1440 utc (1540 local time) on Saturday 18 June 2022, when low tide had passed and the tide was due to rise, the water drained from the harbours of Union Hall and nearby Courtmacsherry on the south coast of Ireland (see Figure 1a). Eyewitnesses captured the event on video,1 with observers remarking that it reminded them of reports of the tide receding ahead of the tsunami in Japan in 2011. The event was captured by the Irish Marine Institute’s tide gauge in Union Hall, which recorded a drop in water level of 70cm in 5min. Compared to the normal ebb and flow of tides of ~1cm per minute, this was a dramatic event. The event impacted most of the Irish south coast, from Castletownbere to Dunmore East and onwards to Britain, with reports of unusual tidal behaviour in Pembrokeshire in South Wales (see Sibley, 2022, this issue).

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a vital role in global climate, redistributing heat, and freshwater. It is predicted to decline due to anthropogenic climate change, with major implications for global climate. Accurately assessing AMOC strength with in situ observations has inspired a number of dedicated observing systems in the Atlantic since the 2000s. However, no consensus has been reached on whether the slowdown of the AMOC and its associated heat and freshwater transports is occurring. These dedicated systems are too recent to detect long-term trends. We have analyzed hydrographic data from zonal sections across the Atlantic for 30 years that predate and overlap the era of AMOC observations. Our results show no changes in the AMOC for all sections analyzed over the whole Atlantic for the last 30 years. We also find an increased export of freshwater from the South Atlantic associated with an increase in upper salinity.

We provide an updated sea level dataset for Dublin for the period 1938–2016 at yearly resolution. Using a newly collated sea level record for Dublin Port, as well as two nearby tide gauges at Arklow and Howth Harbour, we perform data quality checks and calibration of the Dublin Port record by adjusting the biased high water level measurements that affect the overall calculation of mean sea level (MSL). To correct these MSL values, we use a novel Bayesian linear regression that includes the mean low water values as a predictor in the model. We validate the re-created MSL dataset and show its consistency with other nearby tide gauge datasets. Using our new corrected dataset, we estimate a rate of sea level rise of 1.1 mm yr−1 during 1953–2016 (95 % credible interval from 0.6 to 1.6 mm yr−1 ), and a rate of 7 mm yr−1 during 1997–2016 (95 % credible interval from 5 to 8.8 mm yr−1). The overall sea level rise is in line with expected trends, but large multidecadal variability has led to higher rates of rise in recent years.

On top of the global sampling efforts carried out since the 1990s under WOCE and GOSHIP programs, the AMOC is being monitored with several mooring arrays in key latitudes. However, the earlier results date back to the year 2000, so these mooring arrays cannot address longer-term decadal changes in the Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, hydrographic data offers the opportunity to understand this longer-term subsurface variability. To address this issue, we have carried out three inverse models in a neutral density framework, one for each of the last three decades (1990-99, 2000-09 and 2010-19). We have used hydrographic data for the entire Atlantic Ocean, covering the whole latitudinal extent of the Atlantic (Figure 1). Answering the question of the slowing of the AMOC is very important, and the contrasting results between in situ observations and model reconstructions is a significant contribution to the debate.

Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observations and competing effects of both internal and external climate factors acting on North Atlantic surface temperature variability. Here, we use a paleoclimate database and an advanced statistical framework to generate, evaluate, and compare 312 reconstructions of the Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past millennium, based on different indices and regression methods. From this process, the best reconstruction is obtained with the random forest method, and its robustness is checked using climate model outputs and independent oceanic paleoclimate data. This reconstruction shows that memory in variations of Atlantic multidecadal variability have strongly increased recently—a potential early warning signal for the approach of a North Atlantic tipping point., This study benefited from the IPSL Prodiguer-Ciclad and Camelot supercomputing facilities, supported by CNRS, UPMC Labex L-IPSL. This work was also sponsored by NWO Exact and Natural Sciences for the use of SurfSARA supercomputing facilities (Amsterdam) under project 2020.022. Authors were also funded by EU‐H2020 TiPES (Grant no. 820970, S.M., contribution no. 164), Blue Action (Grant Agreement no. 727852, D.S., G.G, G.M., and J.M.), EUCP (Grant Agreement no 776613, D.S. and J.M.), ROADMAP (Grant Agreement no. 116020, J.M., G.M., and G.G.) ARCHANGE (ANR‐18‐MPGA‐0001, J.M. and G.G.) research programmes., Peer Reviewed, Postprint (published version)