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Pathogenic infections pose a significant threat to global health, affecting millions of people every year and presenting substantial challenges to healthcare systems worldwide. Efficient and timely testing plays a critical role in disease control and transmission prevention. Group testing is a well-established method for reducing the number of tests needed to screen large populations when the disease prevalence is low. However, it does not fully utilize the quantitative information provided by qPCR methods, nor is it able to accommodate a wide range of pathogen loads. To address these issues, we introduce a novel adaptive semi-quantitative group testing (SQGT) scheme to efficiently screen populations via two-stage qPCR testing. The SQGT method quantizes cycle threshold ($Ct$) values into multiple bins, leveraging the information from the first stage of screening to improve the detection sensitivity. Dynamic $Ct$ threshold adjustments mitigate dilution effects and enhance test accuracy. Comparisons with traditional binary outcome GT methods show that SQGT reduces the number of tests by $24$% while maintaining a negligible false negative rate., Comment: Corrected a misspelled name in the author list on page 1

The dynamics of microbial communities is incredibly complex, determined by competition for metabolic substrates and cross-feeding of byproducts. Species in the community grow by harvesting energy from chemical reactions that transform substrates to products. In many anoxic environments, these reactions are close to thermodynamic equilibrium and growth is slow. To understand the community structure in these energy-limited environments, we developed a microbial community consumer-resource model incorporating energetic and thermodynamic constraints on an interconnected metabolic network. The central ingredient of the model is product inhibition, meaning that microbial growth may be limited not only by depletion of metabolic substrates but also by accumulation of products. We demonstrate that these additional constraints on microbial growth cause a convergence in the structure and function of the community metabolic network -- independent of species composition and biochemical details -- providing a possible explanation for convergence of community function despite taxonomic variation observed in many natural and industrial environments. Furthermore, we discovered that the structure of community metabolic network is governed by the thermodynamic principle of maximum heat dissipation. Overall, the work demonstrates how universal thermodynamic principles may constrain community metabolism and explain observed functional convergence in microbial communities.

To enable personalized cancer treatment, machine learning models have been developed to predict drug response as a function of tumor and drug features. However, most algorithm development efforts have relied on cross validation within a single study to assess model accuracy. While an essential first step, cross validation within a biological data set typically provides an overly optimistic estimate of the prediction performance on independent test sets. To provide a more rigorous assessment of model generalizability between different studies, we use machine learning to analyze five publicly available cell line-based data sets: NCI60, CTRP, GDSC, CCLE and gCSI. Based on observed experimental variability across studies, we explore estimates of prediction upper bounds. We report performance results of a variety of machine learning models, with a multitasking deep neural network achieving the best cross-study generalizability. By multiple measures, models trained on CTRP yield the most accurate predictions on the remaining testing data, and gCSI is the most predictable among the cell line data sets included in this study. With these experiments and further simulations on partial data, two lessons emerge: (1) differences in viability assays can limit model generalizability across studies, and (2) drug diversity, more than tumor diversity, is crucial for raising model generalizability in preclinical screening., Comment: Accepted by Briefings in Bioinformatics

It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, i.e. constant in time, here we discuss the consequences of dynamic heterogeneity. By integrating the stochastic dynamics of social activity into traditional epidemiological models we demonstrate the emergence of a new long timescale governing the epidemic in broad agreement with empirical data. Our model captures multiple features of real-life epidemics such as COVID-19, including prolonged plateaus and multiple waves, which are transiently suppressed due to the dynamic nature of social activity. The existence of the long timescale due to the interplay between epidemic and social dynamics provides a unifying picture of how a fast-paced epidemic typically will transition to the endemic state.

The emergence of longer information-carrying and functional nucleotide polymers from random short strands was a major stepping stone at the dawn of life. But the formation of those polymers under temperature oscillation required some form of selection. A plausible mechanism is template-based ligation where theoretical work already suggested a reduction in information entropy. Here, we show how nontrivial sequence patterns emerge in a system of random 12mer DNA sequences subject to enzyme-based templated ligation reaction and temperature cycling. The strands acted both as a template and substrates of the reaction and thereby formed longer oligomers. The selection for templating sequences leads to the development of a multiscale ligation landscape. A position-dependent sequence pattern emerged with a segregation into mutually complementary pools of A-rich and T-rich sequences. Even without selection for function, the base pairing of DNA with ligation showed a dynamics resembling Darwinian evolution., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, SI attached

Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, super-spreading events lead to burstiness and overdispersion, while long-term persistent heterogeneity in susceptibility is expected to lead to a reduction in the infection peak and the herd immunity threshold (HIT). Here, we develop a general approach to encompass both timescales, including time variations in individual social activity, and demonstrate how to incorporate them phenomenologically into a wide class of epidemiological models through parameterization. We derive a non-linear dependence of the effective reproduction number Re on the susceptible population fraction S. We show that a state of transient collective immunity (TCI) emerges well below the HIT during early, high-paced stages of the epidemic. However, this is a fragile state that wanes over time due to changing levels of social activity, and so the infection peak is not an indication of herd immunity: subsequent waves can and will emerge due to behavioral changes in the population, driven (e.g.) by seasonal factors. Transient and long-term levels of heterogeneity are estimated by using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic as well as from real-life face-to-face contact networks. These results suggest that the hardest-hit areas, such as NYC, have achieved TCI following the first wave of the epidemic, but likely remain below the long-term HIT. Thus, in contrast to some previous claims, these regions can still experience subsequent waves.

We present modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Illinois, USA, capturing the implementation of a Stay-at-Home order and scenarios for its eventual release. We use a non-Markovian age-of-infection model that is capable of handling long and variable time delays without changing its model topology. Bayesian estimation of model parameters is carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. This framework allows us to treat all available input information, including both the previously published parameters of the epidemic and available local data, in a uniform manner. To accurately model deaths as well as demand on the healthcare system, we calibrate our predictions to total and in-hospital deaths as well as hospital and ICU bed occupancy by COVID-19 patients. We apply this model not only to the state as a whole but also its sub-regions in order to account for the wide disparities in population size and density. Without prior information on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the model independently reproduces a mitigation trend closely matching mobility data reported by Google and Unacast. Forward predictions of the model provide robust estimates of the peak position and severity and also enable forecasting the regional-dependent results of releasing Stay-at-Home orders. The resulting highly constrained narrative of the epidemic is able to provide estimates of its unseen progression and inform scenarios for sustainable monitoring and control of the epidemic., Comment: The manuscript uses data provided by the Illinois Department of Public Health through a Data Use Agreement with Civis Analytics. The source code for the model is freely available online at https://github.com/uiuc-covid19-modeling/pydemic. v3 includes demonstration of modeling for New York City

We estimate the growth in demand for ICU beds in Chicago during the emerging COVID-19 epidemic, using state-of-the-art computer simulations calibrated for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The questions we address are these: (1) Will the ICU capacity in Chicago be exceeded, and if so by how much? (2) Can strong mitigation strategies, such as lockdown or shelter in place order, prevent the overflow of capacity? (3) When should such strategies be implemented? Our answers are as follows: (1) The ICU capacity may be exceeded by a large amount, probably by a factor of ten. (2) Strong mitigation can avert this emergency situation potentially, but even that will not work if implemented too late. (3) If the strong mitigation precedes April 1st, then the growth of COVID-19 can be controlled and the ICU capacity could be adequate. The earlier the strong mitigation is implemented, the greater the probability that it will be successful. After around April 1 2020, any strong mitigation will not avert the emergency situation. In Italy, the lockdown occurred too late and the number of deaths is still doubling every 2.3 days. It is difficult to be sure about the precise dates for this window of opportunity, due to the inherent uncertainties in computer simulation. But there is high confidence in the main conclusion that it exists and will soon be closed. Our conclusion is that, being fully cognizant of the societal trade-offs, there is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to avert a worst-case scenario in Chicago, but only with strong mitigation/lockdown implemented in the next week at the latest. If this window is missed, the epidemic will get worse and then strong mitigation/lockdown will be required after all, but it will be too late.

Social interaction between microbes can be described at many levels of details, ranging from the biochemistry of cell-cell interactions to the ecological dynamics of populations. Choosing the best level to model microbial communities without losing generality remains a challenge. Here we propose to model cross-feeding interactions at an intermediate level between genome-scale metabolic models of individual species and consumer-resource models of ecosystems, which is suitable to empirical data. We applied our method to three published examples of multi-strain Escherichia coli communities with increasing complexity consisting of uni-, bi-, and multi-directional cross-feeding of either substitutable metabolic byproducts or essential nutrients. The intermediate-scale model accurately described empirical data and could quantify exchange rates elusive by other means, such as the byproduct secretions, even for a complex community of 14 amino acid auxotrophs. We used the three models to study each community's limits of robustness to perturbations such as variations in resource supply, antibiotic treatments and invasion by other "cheaters" species. Our analysis provides a foundation to quantify cross-feeding interactions from experimental data, and highlights the importance of metabolic exchanges in the dynamics and stability of microbial communities., Comment: 6 figures

The human gut microbiome is a complex ecosystem, in which hundreds of microbial species and metabolites coexist, in part due to an extensive network of cross-feeding interactions. However, both the large-scale trophic organization of this ecosystem, and its effects on the underlying metabolic flow, remain unexplored. Here, using a simplified model, we provide quantitative support for a multi-level trophic organization of the human gut microbiome, where microbes consume and secrete metabolites in multiple iterative steps. Using a manually-curated set of metabolic interactions between microbes, our model suggests about four trophic levels, each characterized by a high level-to-level metabolic transfer of byproducts. It also quantitatively predicts the typical metabolic environment of the gut (fecal metabolome) in approximate agreement with the real data. To understand the consequences of this trophic organization, we quantify the metabolic flow and biomass distribution, and explore patterns of microbial and metabolic diversity in different levels. The hierarchical trophic organization suggested by our model can help mechanistically establish causal links between the abundances of microbes and metabolites in the human gut., Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures

Microbial communities routinely have several possible species compositions or community states observed for the same environmental parameters. Changes in these parameters can trigger abrupt and persistent transitions (regime shifts) between such community states. Yet little is known about the main determinants and mechanisms of multistability in microbial communities. Here we introduce and study a resource-explicit model in which microbes compete for two types of essential nutrients. We adapt game-theoretical methods of the stable matching problem to identify all possible species compositions of a microbial community. We then classify them by their resilience against three types of perturbations: fluctuations in nutrient supply, invasions by new species, and small changes of abundances of existing ones. We observe multistability and explore an intricate network of regime shifts between stable states in our model. Our results suggest that multistability requires microbial species to have different stoichiometries of essential nutrients. We also find that balanced nutrient supply promote multistability and species diversity yet make individual community states less stable., Comment: 15 pages plus SI, 4 figures and 5 supplementary figures. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1810.04726

Microbial communities routinely have several alternative stable states observed for the same environmental parameters. Sudden and irreversible transitions between these states make external manipulation of these systems more complicated. To better understand the mechanisms and origins of multistability in microbial communities, we introduce and study a model of a microbial ecosystem colonized by multiple specialist species selected from a fixed pool. Growth of each species can be limited by essential nutrients of two types, e.g. carbon and nitrogen, each represented in the environment by multiple metabolites. We demonstrate that our model has an exponentially large number of potential stable states realized for different environmental parameters. Using game theoretical methods adapted from the stable marriage problem we predict all of these states based only on ranked lists of competitive abilities of species for each of the nutrients. We show that for every set of nutrient influxes, several mutually uninvadable stable states are generally feasible and we distinguish them based upon their dynamic stability. We further explore an intricate network of discontinuous transitions (regime shifts) between these alternative states both in the course of community assembly, or upon changes of nutrient influxes.

Experimental studies of microbial communities routinely reveal that they have multiple stable states. While each of these states is generally resilient, certain perturbations such as antibiotics, probiotics and diet shifts, result in transitions to other states. Can we reliably both predict such stable states as well as direct and control transitions between them? Here we present a new conceptual model inspired by the stable marriage problem in game theory and economics in which microbial communities naturally exhibit multiple stable states, each state with a different species' abundance profile. Our model's core ingredient is that microbes utilize nutrients one at a time while competing with each other. Using only two ranked tables, one with microbes' nutrient preferences and one with their competitive abilities, we can determine all possible stable states as well as predict inter-state transitions, triggered by the removal or addition of a specific nutrient or microbe. Further, using an example of 7 Bacteroides species common to the human gut utilizing 9 polysaccharides, we predict that mutual complementarity in nutrient preferences enables these species to coexist at high abundances., Comment: 24 pages (including SI), 4 figures (+3 supplementary figures)

Microbial ecosystems are remarkably diverse, stable, and often consist of a balanced mixture of core and peripheral species. Here we propose a conceptual model exhibiting all these emergent properties in quantitative agreement with real ecosystem data, specifically species' abundance and prevalence distributions. Resource competition and metabolic commensalism drive stochastic ecosystem assembly in our model. We demonstrate that even when supplied with just one resource, ecosystems can exhibit high diversity, increasing stability, and partial reproducibility between samples.

Reduction of information entropy along with ever-increasing complexity are among the key signatures of living matter. Understanding the onset of such behavior in early prebiotic world is essential for solving the problem of origins of life. To elucidate this transition, we study a theoretical model of information-storing heteropolymers capable of template-assisted ligation and subjected to cyclic non-equilibrium driving forces. We discover that this simple physical system undergoes a spontaneous reduction of the information entropy due to the competition of chains for constituent monomers. This natural-selection-like process ultimately results in the survival of a limited subset of polymer sequences. Importantly, the number of surviving sequences remains exponentially large, thus opening up the possibility of further increase in complexity due to Darwinian evolution. We also propose potential experimental implementations of our model using either biopolymers or artificial nano-structures.

Most infectious diseases including more than half of known human pathogens are not restricted to just one host, yet much of the mathematical modeling of infections has been limited to a single species. We investigate consequences of a single epidemic propagating in multiple species and compare and contrast it with the endemic steady state of the disease. We use the two-species Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to calculate the severity of post-epidemic collapses in populations of two host species as a function of their initial population sizes, the times individuals remain infectious, and the matrix of infection rates. We derive the criteria for a very large, extinction-level, population collapse in one or both of the species. The main conclusion of our study is that a single epidemic could drive a species with high mortality rate to local or even global extinction provided that it is co-infected with an abundant species. Such collapse-driven extinctions depend on factors different than those in the endemic steady state of the disease.

Among several quantitative invariants found in evolutionary genomics, one of the most striking is the scaling of the overall abundance of proteins, or protein domains, sharing a specific functional annotation across genomes of given size. The size of these functional categories change, on average, as power-laws in the total number of protein-coding genes. Here, we show that such regularities are not restricted to the overall behavior of high-level functional categories, but also exist systematically at the level of single evolutionary families of protein domains. Specifically, the number of proteins within each family follows family-specific scaling laws with genome size. Functionally similar sets of families tend to follow similar scaling laws, but this is not always the case. To understand this systematically, we provide a comprehensive classification of families based on their scaling properties. Additionally, we develop a quantitative score for the heterogeneity of the scaling of families belonging to a given category or predefined group. Under the common reasonable assumption that selection is driven solely or mainly by biological function, these findings point to fine-tuned and interdependent functional roles of specific protein domains, beyond our current functional annotations. This analysis provides a deeper view on the links between evolutionary expansion of protein families and the functional constraints shaping the gene repertoire of bacterial genomes., Comment: 41 pages, 16 figures

An approximation to the ~4 Mbp basic genome shared by 32 strains of E. coli representing six evolutionary groups has been derived and analyzed computationally. A multiple-alignment of the 32 complete genome sequences was filtered to remove mobile elements and identify the most reliable ~90% of the aligned length of each of the resulting 496 basic-genome pairs. Patterns of single-bp mutations (SNPs) in aligned pairs distinguish clonally inherited regions from regions where either genome has acquired DNA fragments from diverged genomes by homologous recombination since their last common ancestor. Such recombinant transfer is pervasive across the basic genome, mostly between genomes in the same evolutionary group, and generates many unique mosaic patterns. The six least-diverged genome-pairs have one or two recombinant transfers of length ~40-115 kbp (and few if any other transfers), each containing one or more gene clusters known to confer strong selective advantage in some environments. Moderately diverged genome-pairs (0.4-1% SNPs ) show mosaic patterns of interspersed clonal and recombinant regions of varying lengths throughout the basic genome, whereas more highly diverged pairs within an evolutionary group or pairs between evolutionary groups having >1.3% SNPs have few clonal matches longer than a few kbp. Many recombinant transfers appear to incorporate fragments of the entering DNA produced by restriction systems of the recipient cell. A simple computational model can closely fit the data. Most recombinant transfers seem likely to be due to generalized transduction by co-evolving populations of phages, which could efficiently distribute variability throughout bacterial genomes., Comment: 29 pages (including SI), 4 figures

Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic "diversity waves" triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species, while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies., Comment: 15 pages (including SI), 6 figures + 7 supplementary figures

Self-replicating systems based on information-coding polymers are of crucial importance in biology. They also recently emerged as a paradigm in material design on nano- and micro-scales. We present a general theoretical and numerical analysis of the problem of spontaneous emergence of autocatalysis for heteropolymers capable of template-assisted ligation driven by cyclic changes in the environment. Our central result is the existence of the first order transition between the regime dominated by free monomers and that with a self-sustaining population of sufficiently long chains. We provide a simple, mathematically tractable model supported by numerical simulations, which predicts the distribution of chain lengths and the onset of autocatalysis in terms of the overall monomer concentration and two fundamental rate constants. Another key result of our study is the emergence of the kinetically-limited optimal overlap length between a template and each of its two substrates. The template-assisted ligation allows for heritable transmission of the information encoded in chain sequences thus opening up the possibility of long-term memory and evolvability in such systems., Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures

The ~4-Mbp basic genome shared by 32 independent isolates of E. coli representing considerable population diversity has been approximated by whole-genome multiple-alignment and computational filtering designed to remove mobile elements and highly variable regions. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the 496 basic-genome pairs are identified and clonally inherited stretches are distinguished from those acquired by horizontal transfer (HT) by sharp discontinuities in SNP density. The six least diverged genome-pairs each have only one or two HT stretches, each occupying 42-115-kbp of basic genome and containing at least one gene cluster known to confer selective advantage. At higher divergences, the typical mosaic pattern of interspersed clonal and HT stretches across the entire basic genome are observed, including likely fragmented integrations across a restriction barrier. A simple model suggests that individual HT events are of the order of 10-kbp and are the chief contributor to genome divergence, bringing in almost 12 times more SNPs than point mutations. As a result of continuing horizontal transfer of such large segments, 400 out of the 496 strain-pairs beyond genomic divergence of share virtually no genomic material with their common ancestor. We conclude that the active and continuing horizontal transfer of moderately large genomic fragments is likely to be mediated primarily by a co evolving population of phages that distribute random genome fragments throughout the population by generalized transduction, allowing efficient adaptation to environmental changes., Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures, 1 table

Bacterial genomes and large-scale computer software projects both consist of a large number of components (genes or software packages) connected via a network of mutual dependencies. Components can be easily added or removed from individual systems and their usage frequencies vary over many orders of magnitude. We study this frequency distribution in genomes of ~500 bacterial species and in over 2 million of Linux computers and find that in both cases it is described by the same scale-free power law distribution with an additional peak near the tail of the distribution corresponding to nearly universal components. We argue that this is a general property of any modular system with a multi-layered dependency network. We demonstrate that the frequency of a component is positively correlated with its dependency degree given by the total number of upstream components whose operation directly or indirectly depends on the selected component. The observed frequency/dependency degree distributions are reproduced in a simple mathematically tractable model introduced and analyzed in this study.

Upon infection of their bacterial hosts temperate phages must chose between lysogenic and lytic developmental strategies. Here we apply the game-theoretic bet-hedging strategy introduced by Kelly to derive the optimal lysogenic fraction of the total population of phages as a function of frequency and intensity of environmental downturns affecting the lytic subpopulation. "Well-temperate" phage from our title is characterized by the best long-term population growth rate. We show that it is realized when the lysogenization frequency is approximately equal to the probability of lytic population collapse. We further predict the existence of sharp boundaries in system's environmental, ecological, and biophysical parameters separating the regions where this temperate strategy is optimal from those dominated by purely virulent or} dormant (purely lysogenic) strategies. We show that the virulent strategy works best for phages with large diversity of hosts, and access to multiple independent environments reachable by diffusion. Conversely, progressively more temperate or even dormant strategies are favored in the environments, that are subject to frequent and severe temporal downturns., Comment: 26 pages, 3 figures

We propose and study a class-expansion/innovation/loss model of genome evolution taking into account biological roles of genes and their constituent domains. In our model numbers of genes in different functional categories are coupled to each other. For example, an increase in the number of metabolic enzymes in a genome is usually accompanied by addition of new transcription factors regulating these enzymes. Such coupling can be thought of as a proportional "recipe" for genome composition of the type "a spoonful of sugar for each egg yolk". The model jointly reproduces two known empirical laws: the distribution of family sizes and the nonlinear scaling of the number of genes in certain functional categories (e.g. transcription factors) with genome size. In addition, it allows us to derive a novel relation between the exponents characterising these two scaling laws, establishing a direct quantitative connection between evolutionary and functional categories. It predicts that functional categories that grow faster-than-linearly with genome size to be characterised by flatter-than-average family size distributions. This relation is confirmed by our bioinformatics analysis of prokaryotic genomes. This proves that the joint quantitative trends of functional and evolutionary classes can be understood in terms of evolutionary growth with proportional recipes., Comment: 39 pages, 21 figures

It has been reported that the number of transcription factors encoded in prokaryotic genomes scales approximately quadratically with their total number of genes. We propose a conceptual explanation of this finding and illustrate it using a simple model in which metabolic and regulatory networks of prokaryotes are shaped by horizontal gene transfer of coregulated metabolic pathways. Adapting to a new environmental condition monitored by a new transcription factor (e.g., learning to use another nutrient) involves both acquiring new enzymes and reusing some of the enzymes already encoded in the genome. As the repertoire of enzymes of an organism (its toolbox) grows larger, it can reuse its enzyme tools more often and thus needs to get fewer new ones to master each new task. From this observation, it logically follows that the number of functional tasks and their regulators increases faster than linearly with the total number of genes encoding enzymes. Genomes can also shrink, e.g., because of a loss of a nutrient from the environment, followed by deletion of its regulator and all enzymes that become redundant. We propose several simple models of network evolution elaborating on this toolbox argument and reproducing the empirically observed quadratic scaling. The distribution of lengths of pathway branches in our model agrees with that of the real-life metabolic network of Escherichia coli. Thus, our model provides a qualitative explanation for broad distributions of regulon sizes in prokaryotes., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures

In prokaryotic genomes the number of transcriptional regulators is known to quadratically scale with the total number of protein-coding genes. Toolbox model was recently proposed to explain this scaling for metabolic enzymes and their regulators. According to its rules the metabolic network of an organism evolves by horizontal transfer of pathways from other species. These pathways are part of a larger "universal" network formed by the union of all species-specific networks. It remained to be understood, however, how the topological properties of this universal network influence the scaling law of functional content of genomes. In this study we answer this question by first analyzing the scaling properties of the toolbox model on arbitrary tree-like universal networks. We mathematically prove that the critical branching topology, in which the average number of upstream neighbors of a node is equal to one, is both necessary and sufficient for the quadratic scaling. Conversely, the toolbox model on trees with exponentially expanding, supercritical topology is characterized by the linear scaling with logarithmic corrections. We further generalize our model to include reactions with multiple substrates/products as well as branched or cyclic metabolic pathways. Unlike the original model the new version employs evolutionary optimized pathways with the smallest number of reactions necessary to achieve their metabolic tasks. Numerical simulations of this most realistic model on the universal network from the KEGG database again produced approximately quadratic scaling. Our results demonstrate why, in spite of their "small-world" topology, real-life metabolic networks are characterized by a broad distribution of pathway lengths and sizes of metabolic regulons in regulatory networks., Comment: 34 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables

How do living cells achieve sufficient abundances of functional protein complexes while minimizing promiscuous non-functional interactions? Here we study this problem using a first-principle model of the cell whose phenotypic traits are directly determined from its genome through biophysical properties of protein structures and binding interactions in crowded cellular environment. The model cell includes three independent prototypical pathways, whose topologies of Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) sub-networks are different, but whose contributions to the cell fitness are equal. Model cells evolve through genotypic mutations and phenotypic protein copy number variations. We found a strong relationship between evolved physical-chemical properties of protein interactions and their abundances due to a "frustration" effect: strengthening of functional interactions brings about hydrophobic interfaces, which make proteins prone to promiscuous binding. The balancing act is achieved by lowering concentrations of hub proteins while raising solubilities and abundances of functional monomers. Based on these principles we generated and analyzed a possible realization of the proteome-wide PPI network in yeast. In this simulation we found that high-throughput affinity capture - mass spectroscopy experiments can detect functional interactions with high fidelity only for high abundance proteins while missing most interactions for low abundance proteins., Comment: 28 pages incl Supp Info, 5 figures and 3 Supp Figures

We review our recent work on applying the Google PageRank algorithm to find scientific "gems" among all Physical Review publications, and its extension to CiteRank, to find currently popular research directions. These metrics provide a meaningful extension to traditionally-used importance measures, such as the number of citations and journal impact factor. We also point out some pitfalls of over-relying on quantitative metrics to evaluate scientific quality., Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure, invited comment for the Journal of Neuroscience. The arxiv version is microscopically different from the published version

We consider two types of fluctuations in the mass-action equilibrium in protein binding networks. The first type is driven by relatively slow changes in total concentrations (copy numbers) of interacting proteins. The second type, to which we refer to as spontaneous, is caused by quickly decaying thermodynamic deviations away from the equilibrium of the system. As such they are amenable to methods of equilibrium statistical mechanics used in our study. We investigate the effects of network connectivity on these fluctuations and compare them to their upper and lower bounds. The collective effects are shown to sometimes lead to large power-law distributed amplification of spontaneous fluctuations as compared to the expectation for isolated dimers. As a consequence of this, the strength of both types of fluctuations is positively correlated with the overall network connectivity of proteins forming the complex. On the other hand, the relative amplitude of fluctuations is negatively correlated with the abundance of the complex. Our general findings are illustrated using a real network of protein-protein interactions in baker's yeast with experimentally determined protein concentrations., Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures

We develop a matrix-based approach to predict and verify indirect interactions in gene and protein regulatory networks. It is based on the approximate transitivity of indirect regulations (e.g. A regulates B and B regulates C often implies that A regulates C) and optimally takes into account the length of a cascade and signs of intermediate interactions. Our method is at its most powerful when applied to large and densely interconnected networks. It successfully predicts both the yet unknown indirect regulations, as well as the sign (activation or repression) of already known ones. The reliability of sign predictions was calibrated using the gold-standard sets of positive and negative interactions. We fine-tuned the parameters of our algorithm by maximizing the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. We then applied the optimized algorithm to large literature-derived networks of all direct and indirect regulatory interactions in several model organisms (Homo sapiens, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Arabidopsis thaliana and Drosophila melanogaster)., Comment: revised version, 19 pages, 6 figures, including supplementary materials

We study how the dynamic equilibrium of the reversible protein-protein binding network in yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae responds to large changes in abundances of individual proteins. The magnitude of shifts between free and bound concentrations of their immediate and more distant neighbors in the network is influenced by such factors as the network topology, the distribution of protein concentrations among its nodes, and the average binding strength. Our primary conclusion is that, on average, the effects of a perturbation are strongly localized and exponentially decay with the network distance away from the perturbed node, which explains why, despite globally connected topology, individual functional modules in such networks are able to operate fairly independently. We also found that under specific favorable conditions, realized in a significant number of paths in the yeast network, concentration perturbations can selectively propagate over considerable network distances (up to four steps). Such "action-at-a-distance" requires high concentrations of heterodimers along the path as well as low free (unbound) concentration of intermediate proteins., Comment: 5 pages, 7 figures

Finding the dominant direction of flow of information in densely interconnected regulatory or signaling networks is required in many applications in computational biology and neuroscience. This is achieved by first identifying and removing links which close up feedback loops in the original network and hierarchically arranging nodes in the remaining network. In mathematical language this corresponds to a problem of making a graph acyclic by removing as few links as possible and thus altering the original graph in the least possible way. Practically in all applications the exact solution of this problem requires an enumeration of all combinations of removed links, which is computationally intractable. We introduce and compare two algorithms: the deterministic, 'greedy' algorithm that preferentially cuts the links that participate in the largest number of feedback cycles, and the probabilistic one based on a simulated annealing of a hierarchical layout of the network which minimizes the number of ``backward'' links going from lower to higher hierarchical levels. We find that the annealing algorithm outperforms the deterministic one in terms of speed, memory requirement, and the actual number of removed links. Implications for system biology and directions for further research are discussed., Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures

Escherichia coli bacteria respond to DNA damage by a highly orchestrated series of events known as the SOS response, regulated by transcription factors, protein-protein binding and active protein degradation. We present a dynamical model of the UV-induced SOS response, incorporating mutagenesis by the error-prone polymerase, Pol V. In our model, mutagenesis depends on a combination of two key processes: damage counting by the replication forks and a long term memory associated with the accumulation of UmuD'. Together, these provide a tight regulation of mutagenesis resulting, we show, in a "digital" turn-on and turn-off of Pol V. Our model provides a compact view of the topology and design of the SOS network, pinpointing the specific functional role of each of the regulatory processes. In particular, we suggest that the recently observed second peak in the activity of promoters in the SOS regulon (Friedman et al., 2005, PLoS Biol. 3, e238) is the result of a positive feedback from Pol V to RecA filaments., Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures