Search

Extreme rainfall events have been more frequent in recent decades, potentially as a climate change effect. This has been leading to a higher risk of the failure of existing hydraulic infrastructures, and to a higher awareness regarding the unreliability of design rainfall calculated with reference to historical data recorded in the last century. With this in mind, the present study questions the stationary assumption of the rainfall Depth–Duration–Frequency curves commonly used in Sicily, the biggest island of the Mediterranean Sea. Quantiles derived from the most up-to-date regional method, regarding Sicily, based on observations in the period 1928–2010, have been compared with those extracted from a high-resolution dataset related to the period 2002–2022, provided by the SIAS agency. The results showed a remarkable underestimation of the rainfall quantiles calculated with the regional approach, especially at the shortest durations and low return periods. This means that new hydraulic works should be designed with reference to longer return periods than in the recent past, and those that currently exist may experience a higher risk of failure. Future investigation of this aspect is crucial for enhancing the effectiveness of water management and detecting hydrological risks under a changing climate.

L’esperienza del Progetto Mentore (PM) nasce nel 2013 dalla percezione, da parte di diversi docenti dell’Ateneo di Palermo, che l’Accademia italiana stesse abbandonando a sé stessa la funzione didattica, confidando di fatto nelle capacità di ognuno di organizzarsi, aggiornarsi e valutarsi (Felisatti, Scialdone, Cannarozzo, & Pennisi, 2019; Caradonna, Morale, Pace, Scargiali, Scialdone, & Auteri, 2020). Tale impressione era tra le altre cose basata sul fatto che nessuno dei sistemi di valutazione dei docenti universitari (il processo di abilitazione scientifica nazionale, ma anche la stessa valutazione della qualità dei corsi di studio) mettesse enfasi sulla necessità da parte del docente di essere anche un efficace insegnante, oltre che un bravo ricercatore. Da qui l’idea di organizzarsi autonomamente, con l’obiettivo iniziale di creare gruppi di colleghi che lavorassero insieme al miglioramento della qualità della didattica, su base volontaria.

Sustainable use of water resources requires a modern approach for complex water systems management based on system’s modeling, as unsung operation alternatives may only be devised and tested through a model. The now available IT computing tools enable setting the traditional modelling methodologies for planning and operation of such systems in a new framework. The present work deals with the development of decision support models for optimizing the operation of complex water supply systems with multiple uses and focuses on the validation of the optimization model of the regional water supply systems managed by an Italian water utility. The software used is Aquator, a state-of-the-art commercial tool for generic water resources system simulation and operational optimization. The paper shows and comments the results of the validation of the model and uses them to draw some general principles for the validation of such kind of models: in fact, operational optimization models are conceived for the enhancement of systems management and performance. Consequently, while on the one side model output is expected to reflect the actual state of the system, on the other it can point out significant management enhancements.

Simulation models supported by state-of-the-art software packages are nowadays available to explore operation rules of regional water supply systems or to select structural alternatives for improving long-term service performances.Given the, sometimes high, complexity of these systems, model calibration can become a lengthy procedure and many runs are necessary before obtaining convincing results. However, even after calibration, depending on system's complexity and the number of time steps investigated, a single run can take up to several minutes, even on state-of-the-art computers, so that simulation time can become a true bottleneck if such models are to be coupled with metaheuristic optimization techniques, such as genetic optimization.This paper investigates the possibility to reduce computational time through skeletonization of the models. The regional water supply system of Apulia, Southern Italy, was adopted as a case study and the software package AQUATOR was employed to model the system.

The paper introduces and applies a methodology to screen investments aimed at reducing water supply risks due to hydrologic failures in headwork systems for municipal use, based on the principles of cost-benefit analysis. As risk includes both the probability of a failure and its effect, the methodology combines a simulation module of the system, fed by a stochastic hydrologic input to reproduce the probability distribution of the failures, with a metric for supply failure damage provided by the price – demand relationship for municipal water. Benefits are assessed as the averted damage compared to a base case without investments. This approach is then combined with the classic discounted cashflow approach of cost– benefit analysis to allow for the dynamics of both water supply and demand due to trends in population growth, individual consumption and, above all, planned reduction of losses in water distribution networks. The methodology is applied to screen a number of different supply-side projects for the headwork system supplying Apulia, in southern Italy featuring both regulated surface and groundwater resources and providing drinking water to over 4,000,000 persons. The procedure allows both ranking of single projects by their economical performances and the economic evaluation of combinations of different projects. The study also aims to assess the impact of the selected time scale, of cross-correlation among production sites, and of the specification of the demand function on projects' economic indicators. Results show that each modelling assumption has a considerable impact on the value of the economic indicators in absolute terms, but ranking of the different projects seems to be less sensitive to such modelling aspects.

The main challenge associated to regional water supply systems planning lies in understanding the best infrastructure alternatives to improve service given a certain configuration of the resources system. While cost-effectiveness assessments are still widespread in this type of analyses, they do not account for the fact that, especially in mature systems, service improvements tend to follow the law of marginal diminishing returns, so that a cost – benefit assessment should be preferable. Both costs and benefits can be organized into a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) framework. In a complex system, a model reproducing its topology and characteristics better describes the impacts of the alternatives. In this work some alternatives to improve service in the regional water supply system of Apulia, Southern Italy, are illustrated and compared through CBA. The system has been modelled through AQUATOR, a state-of-the-art simulation software package.

Flow duration curves are simple and powerful tools to deal with many hydrological and environmental problems related to water quality assessment, water-use assessment and water allocation. Unfortunately the scarcity of streamflow data enables the use of these instruments only for gauged basins. A regional model is developed here for estimating flow duration curves at ungauged basins in Sicily, Italy. Due to the complex ephemeral behaviour of the examined region, this study distinguishes dry periods, when flows are zero, from wet periods using a three parameters power law to describe the frequency distribution of flows. A large dataset of streamflows has been analysed and the parameters of flow duration curves have been derived for about fifty basins. Regional regression equations have been developed to derive flow duration curves starting from morphological basin characteristics.

This study introduces a water-driven crop model aiming to quantitatively link olive yield to climate and soil moisture dynamics using an ecohydrological approach. A mathematical model describing soil moisture, evapotranspiration and assimilation dynamics of olive orchards is developed here. The model is able to explicitly reproduce two different hydroclimatic phases in Mediterranean areas: the well-watered conditions in which evapotranspiration and assimilation assume their maximum values and the real conditions where the limitations induced by soil moisture availability are taken into account. Annual olive yield is obtained by integrating the carbon assimilation during the growing season, including the effects of vegetation water stress on biomass allocation. This numerical model has been tested on an olive orchard located in Sicily (Italy) obtaining a satisfactory reproduction of historical olive yield data. This model is useful for simulating the influence of soil moisture dynamic on biomass growth, fruit productivity, also in a context of climatic change.

This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter λ to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems.

The aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in the rainfall regime of the metropolitan area of Palermo characterised by increasingly strong urbanisation. The rainfall data, considered in this study, were collected on a yearly basis from eight rain gauges within and outside the metropolitan area of Palermo, Sicily, Italy. A preliminary analysis made on the annual total rainfall depths showed a global reduction of total annual rainfall, with two different trends: more regular for the series observed in the rain gauges within the urbanised area and more variable for the series observed in the rain gauges outside the area. A further analysis has been performed using the series of maximum intensity for fixed duration (1, 3, 6, 12, 24 hrs) and annual daily maxima. The analysis of the trend in the extreme rainfall series has been performed by estimating the maximum rainfall depth corresponding to a fixed return period using the EV1 distribution with parameters estimated using L-moments. The analysis of all series indicates a global reduction of rainfall intensities, both for internal and external series, in disagreement with the results obtained by other authors.