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The ‘aid conditionality’ hypothesis as documented in the literature suggests that aid is effective in augmenting growth only in the presence of a sound policy environment. This hypothesis was so influential that its policy recommendation, to provide aid conditional upon recipient domestic policies, is currently the dominant ODA allocation criterion. However non-economic dimensions of development (political and institutional) are increasingly seen as fundamental. For this reason, this paper focuses on the linkage between aid and a non-economic factor like Human Rights (reflecting repression and corruption) as a measure of aid effectiveness, in explaining growth outcomes across 42 Least Developed economies. We find that countries with better protection of human rights experience positive growth from aid receipts, signifying the role of stronger institutions in enabling more effective use of aid. The paper thus concludes that the measurement and monitoring of human rights provision is a useful tool in gauging the likely effectiveness of foreign aid.

Resource mobilization continues to be an important policy challenge for developing economies, raising questions as to what determines differences in saving behaviour across countries. Using a panel of 47 economies with at least 40 years of continuous time series data, we causally identify, using a range of approaches, that higher productivity growth leads to greater savings, thereby contributing to higher investment. The dynamics of such productivity shocks have been disentangled into trend and cyclical shocks to uncover that cyclical productivity shocks tend to have a strong positive effect on saving rates. Comparing two countries with different levels of productivity (high and low) in a counterfactual analysis, this result remains robust, and we reconfirm that large declines in productivity shocks were associated with large decline in saving rates. Countries should focus on promoting policies to boost productivity growth and thereby achieve higher savings instead of focusing on savings-induced policies alone.

Given the ongoing efforts to close the gender pay gap across different sectors in the UK, this paper investigates the impact of a pay transparency initiative on the gender pay gap in the university sector, focusing on the Russell Group of top-tier universities. The initiative, introduced in 2007, enabled public access to mean salaries of men and women in UK universities. Using a rich individual-level administrative dataset and a difference-in-differences approach comparing men and women, we document several key findings. First, following the pay transparency intervention, the log of salaries of female academics increased by around 0.62 percentage points compared to male counterparts, reducing the gender pay gap by 4.37%. The effect is more pronounced considering a balanced sample (1.27 percentage points increase in female wages or an 11.59% fall in the gender pay gap). This fall in the pay gap is mostly driven by senior female academics negotiating higher wages and female academics moving to universities with equal opportunity. We do not find any evidence of pre-existing wage gap or the gender composition associated with the fall in the gender pay gap.

Starting from a stochastic agent-based model to represent market exchange in a developing economy, we study time variations of the probability density function of income with simultaneous variation of the consumption deprivation (CD), where CD represents the shortfall in consumption from the saturation level of an essential commodity, cereal. Together, these two models combine income-expenditure-based market dynamics with time variations in consumption due to income. In this new unified theoretical structure, exchange of trade in assets is only allowed when the income exceeds consumption-deprivation while CD itself is endogenously obtained from a separate kinetic model. Our results reveal that the nature of time variation of the CD function leads to a downward trend in the threshold level of consumption of basic necessities, suggesting a possible dietary transition in terms of lower saturation level of food-grain consumption, possibly through an improvement in the level of living. The new poverty index, defined as CD, is amenable to approximate probabilistic prediction within a short time horizon. A major achievement of this work is the intrinsic independence of the poverty index from an exogenous poverty line, making it more objective for policy formulation as opposed to existing poverty indices in the literature.

Given the decline in growth momentum in the manufacturing sector in many OECD countries, the role of knowledge-based capital has emerged as a key driver for sustained growth. While empirical studies on estimating knowledge spillovers have usually been undertaken at the country level, the spillover effects can be more definitive only if the analysis is conducted at the industry-level. The effectiveness of international spillovers is conditional on recipient country’s absorptive capacity and this is an important component of the spillover mechanism that has not attracted significant attention so far. This paper therefore assesses the effect of spillovers in driving per capita output growth taking into account the role of absorptive capacity. Our main findings are first, the confirmation of the robust positive relationship between human capital and output growth for 14 OECD countries at industry level. Second, the gains from international spillover are conditional to the level of human capital and the degree of protection of intellectual property rights. Third, countries that improve absorptive capacity can potentially increase gains from spillovers via either trade or FDI (including vertical FDI). Finally, significant heterogeneity is found between high and low-tech industries. The former group is more effective in absorbing spillovers while the latter has failed to reach the critical level of technological advancement in order to absorb foreign and domestic knowledge.

This paper investigates a perception in the political debates as to what extent poor countries are affected by price movements in the global commodity markets. To test this perception, we use the case of India to establish in a standard SVAR model that global food prices influence aggregate prices and food prices in India. To further analyze these empirical results, we specify a small open economy New-Keynesian model including oil and food prices and estimate it using observed data over the period from 1996Q2 to 2013Q2 by applying Bayesian estimation techniques.

This paper examines the direct effects of corporate tax on firm productivity along with the interaction effects of tax policy and R&D activity on productivity at firm level for over 13,062 firms during 2004-2011. Our main findings are first, that there is evidence for productivity convergence and we find that there is a positive robust relationship between R&D and firm productivity, whereas tax policy has a negative distortionary effect on TFP. Second, firms with greater export orientation do not seem to achieve much improvement in productivity, whereas the favourable productivity effect in the case of R&D-based firms suggests that if there are tax incentives in place for R&D type activity, it can promote innovation and drive productivity convergence (lagging firms closing the technology gap with those at the frontier), particularly so when there is a continued decline in overall economic activity. The results also show a significant non-linear effect of tax rate on firm-level productivity, identifying an inverse U-shaped relationship.

Given limited research on monetary policy rules in emerging markets, this paper estimates monetary policy rules for five key emerging market economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) analysing whether the monetary authority reacts to changes in financial markets, in monetary conditions, in the foreign exchange sector and in the commodity price. To get a deeper understanding of the central bank’s behaviour, we assess the importance of nonlinearity using a smooth transition (STAR) model. Using quarterly data, we find strong evidence that the monetary policy followed by the Central Banks in the BRICS varies from one country to another and that it exhibits nonlinearity. In particular, considerations about economic growth (in the cases of Brazil and Russia), inflation (for India and China) and stability of financial markets (in South Africa) seem to be the major drivers of such nonlinear monetary policy behaviour. Moreover, the findings suggest that the monetary authorities pursue, with the exception of India, a target range for the threshold variable rather than a specific point target. In fact, the exponential smooth transition regression (ESTR) model seems to be the best description of the monetary policy rule in these countries., Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)

Fiscal stimulus programs have contributed substantially to developing Asia’s faster and stronger than expected recovery from the global financial crisis. This may lead to political pressures for greater use of countercyclical fiscal policy in the postcrisis period. However, the countercyclical effectiveness of fiscal policy depends critically on the extent to which it crowds out private investment and consumption. In the medium term, the use of fiscal policy to promote rebalancing toward domestic demand may require a moderate fiscal expansion. The extent of crowding out will impinge upon the effectiveness of such fiscal expansion in boosting domestic demand. Therefore, crowding out has implications for the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a tool for both short-run macroeconomic stabilization and medium- to long-term structural rebalancing. Overall, our evidence is decidedly mixed, with no clear evidence of either crowding out or crowding in. The evidence fails to provide compelling support for greater use of fiscal policy for countercyclical purposes. In the context of rebalancing, fiscal expansion will not, in and of itself, contribute to a more balanced demand and output structure. That would require using fiscal policy to help remove the structural impediments to private consumption and investment.