1. Cumulative Prognostic Score Predicting Mortality in Patients Older Than 80 Years Admitted to the ICU
- Author
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de Lange D. W., Brinkman S., Flaatten H., Boumendil A., Morandi A., Andersen F. H., Artigas A., Bertolini G., Cecconi M., Christensen S., Faraldi L., Fjolner J., Jung C., Marsh B., Moreno R., Oeyen S., Ohman C. A., Bollen Pinto B., de Smet A. M. G. A., Soliman I. W., Szczeklik W., Valentin A., Watson X., Zafeiridis T., Guidet B., Schmutz R., Wimmer F., Eller P., Joannidis M., De Buysscher P., De Neve N., Swinnen W., Abraham P., Hergafi L., Schefold Joerg. C., Biskup E., Piza P., Taliadoros I., Dey N., Solling C., Rasmussen B. S., Forceville X., Besch G., Mentec H., Michel P., Mateu P., Vettoretti L., Bourenne J., Marin N., Guillot M., Aissaoui N., Goulenok C., Thieulot-Rolin N., Messika J., Lamhaut L., Charron C., Lauten A., Sacher A. L., Brenner T., Franz M., Bloos F., Ebelt H., Schaller S. J., Fuest Kristina., Rabe C., Dieck T., Steiner S., Graf T., Nia A. M., Janosi R. A., Meybohm P., Simon P., Utzolino S., Rahmel T., Barth E., Schuster M., Aidoni Z., Aloizos S., Tasioudis P., Lampiri K., Zisopoulou V., Ravani I., Pagaki E., Antoniou A., Katsoulas T. A., Kounougeri A., Marinakis G., Tsimpoukas F., Spyropoulou A., Zygoulis P., Kyparissi A., Gupta M., Gurjar M., Maji I. M., Hayes I., Kelly Y., Westbrook A., Fitzpatrick G., Maheshwari D., Motherway C., Negri G., Spadaro S., Nattino G., Pedeferri M., Boscolo A., Rossi S., Calicchio G., Cubattoli L., Di Lascio G., Barbagallo M., Berruto F., Codazzi D., Bottazzi A., Fumagalli P., Negro G., Lupi G., Savelli F., Vulcano Giuseppe. A., Fumagalli R., Marudi A., Lefons U., Lembo R., Babini M., Paggioro A., Parrini V., Zaccaria M., Clementi S., Gigliuto C., Facondini F., Pastorini S., Munaron S., Calamai I., Bocchi A., Adorni A., Bocci M. G., Cortegiani A., Casalicchio T., Mellea S., Graziani E., Barattini M., Brizio E., Rossi M., Hahn M., Kemmerer N., Strietzel H. F., Dybwik K., Legernaes T., Klepstad P., Olaussen E. B., Olsen K. I., Brresen O. M., Bjorsvik G., Maini S., Fehrle L., Czuczwar M., Krawczyk P., Zietkiewicz M., Nowak L. R., Kotfis K., Cwyl K., Gajdosz R., Biernawska J., Bohatyrewicz Romuald., Gawda R., Grudzien P., Nasilowski P., Popek N., Cyrankiewicz W., Wawrzyniak K., Wnuk M., Maciejewski D., Studzinska D., Zukowski M., Bernas S., Piechota M., Nowak I., Fronczek J., Serwa M., Machala W., Stefaniak J., Wujtewicz M., Maciejewski P., Szymkowiak M., Adamik B., Catorze N., Branco M. C., Barros I., Barros N., Krystopchuk A., Honrado T., Sousa C., Munoz F., Rebelo M., Gomes R., Nunes J., Dias Celeste., Fernandes A. M., Petrisor C., Constantin B., Belskiy V., Boskholov B., Rodriguez E., Rebollo S., Aguilar G., Masdeu G., Jaimes M. I., Mira A. P., Bodi Maria. A., Mendoza J. A. B., Cuenca S. L., Guzman M. H., Rico-Feijoo J., Ibarz M., Alvarez J. T., Kawati R., Sivik J., Nauska J., Smole D., Parenmark F., Lyren J., Rockstroh K., Ryden S., Strinnholm M., Walther S., De Geer L., Nordlund P., Palsson S., Zetterquist H., Nilsson A., Thiringer K., Jungner M., Bark B., Nordling B., Skold H., Brorsson C., Persson S., Bergstrom A., Berkius J., Holmstrom J., van Dijk I., van Lelyveld-Haas L. E. M., Ramnarain D., Jansen T., Nooteboom F., van der Voort P. H. J., Dieperink W., de Waard M. C., Bormans L., Dormans Tom., Dempsey G., Mathew S. J., Raj A. S., Grecu I., Cupitt J., Lawton T., Clark R., Popescu M., Spittle N., Faulkner M., Cowton A., Elloway E., Williams P., Reay M., Chukkambotla S., Kumar R., Al-Subaie N., Kent L., Tamm T., Kajtor I., Burns K., Pugh R., Ostermann M., Kam E., Bowyer H., Smith N., Templeton M., Henning J., Goffin K., Kapoor R., Laha S., Chilton P., Khaliq W., Crayford A., Coetzee S., Tait M., Stoker W., Gimenez M., Pope A., Camsooksai J., Pogson D., Quigley K., Ritzema J., Hormis A., Boulanger C., Balasubramaniam M., Vamplew L., Burt K., Martin D., Craig J., Prowle J., Doyle N., Shelton J., Scott Carmen., Donnison P., Shelton S., Frey C., Ryan C., Spray D., Barnes V., Barnes K., Ridgway S., Saha R., Clark T., Wood J., Bolger C., Bassford C., Lewandowski J., Zhao X., Humphreys S., Dowling S., Richardson N., Burtenshaw A., Stevenson C., Wilcock D., Nalapko Y., Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Critical care, Anesthesiology, Peri-operative and Emergency medicine (CAPE), Medical Informatics, APH - Methodology, APH - Quality of Care, de Lange, D, Brinkman, S, Flaatten, H, Boumendil, A, Morandi, A, Andersen, F, Artigas, A, Bertolini, G, Cecconi, M, Christensen, S, Faraldi, L, Fjolner, J, Jung, C, Marsh, B, Favarato, M, Oeyen, S, Ohman, C, Bollen Pinto, B, de Smet, A, Soliman, I, Szczeklik, W, Valentin, A, Watson, X, Zafeiridis, T, Guidet, B, Schmutz, R, Wimmer, F, Eller, P, Joannidis, M, De Buysscher, P, De Neve, N, Swinnen, W, Abraham, P, Hergafi, L, Schefold, J, Biskup, E, Piza, P, Taliadoros, I, Dey, N, Solling, C, Rasmussen, B, Forceville, X, Besch, G, Mentec, H, Michel, P, Mateu, P, Vettoretti, L, Bourenne, J, Marin, N, Guillot, M, Aissaoui, N, Goulenok, C, Thieulot-Rolin, N, Messika, J, Lamhaut, L, Charron, C, Lauten, A, Sacher, A, Brenner, T, Franz, M, Bloos, F, Ebelt, H, Schaller, S, Fuest, K, Rabe, C, Dieck, T, Steiner, S, Graf, T, Nia, A, Janosi, R, Meybohm, P, Simon, P, Utzolino, S, Rahmel, T, Barth, E, Schuster, M, Aidoni, Z, Aloizos, S, Tasioudis, P, Lampiri, K, Zisopoulou, V, Ravani, I, Pagaki, E, Antoniou, A, Katsoulas, T, Kounougeri, A, Marinakis, G, Tsimpoukas, F, Spyropoulou, A, Zygoulis, P, Kyparissi, A, Gupta, M, Gurjar, M, Maji, I, Hayes, I, Kelly, Y, Westbrook, A, Fitzpatrick, G, Maheshwari, D, Motherway, C, Negri, G, Spadaro, S, Nattino, G, Pedeferri, M, Boscolo, A, Rossi, S, Calicchio, G, Cubattoli, L, Di Lascio, G, Barbagallo, M, Berruto, F, Codazzi, D, Bottazzi, A, Fumagalli, P, Negro, G, Lupi, G, Savelli, F, Vulcano, G, Fumagalli, R, Marudi, A, Lefons, U, Lembo, R, Babini, M, Paggioro, A, Parrini, V, Zaccaria, M, Clementi, S, Gigliuto, C, Facondini, F, Pastorini, S, Munaron, S, Calamai, I, Bocchi, A, Adorni, A, Bocci, M, Cortegiani, A, Casalicchio, T, Mellea, S, Graziani, E, Barattini, M, Brizio, E, Rossi, M, Hahn, M, Kemmerer, N, Strietzel, H, Dybwik, K, Legernaes, T, Klepstad, P, Olaussen, E, Olsen, K, Brresen, O, Bjorsvik, G, Maini, S, Fehrle, L, Czuczwar, M, Krawczyk, P, Zietkiewicz, M, Nowak, L, Kotfis, K, Cwyl, K, Gajdosz, R, Biernawska, J, Bohatyrewicz, R, Gawda, R, Grudzien, P, Nasilowski, P, Popek, N, Cyrankiewicz, W, Wawrzyniak, K, Wnuk, M, Maciejewski, D, Studzinska, D, Zukowski, M, Bernas, S, Piechota, M, Nowak, I, Fronczek, J, Serwa, M, Machala, W, Stefaniak, J, Wujtewicz, M, Maciejewski, P, Szymkowiak, M, Adamik, B, Catorze, N, Branco, M, Barros, I, Barros, N, Krystopchuk, A, Honrado, T, Sousa, C, Munoz, F, Rebelo, M, Gomes, R, Nunes, J, Dias, C, Fernandes, A, Petrisor, C, Constantin, B, Belskiy, V, Boskholov, B, Rodriguez, E, Rebollo, S, Aguilar, G, Masdeu, G, Jaimes, M, Mira, A, Bodi, M, Mendoza, J, Cuenca, S, Guzman, M, Rico-Feijoo, J, Ibarz, M, Alvarez, J, Kawati, R, Sivik, J, Nauska, J, Smole, D, Parenmark, F, Lyren, J, Rockstroh, K, Ryden, S, Strinnholm, M, Walther, S, De Geer, L, Nordlund, P, Palsson, S, Zetterquist, H, Nilsson, A, Thiringer, K, Jungner, M, Bark, B, Nordling, B, Skold, H, Brorsson, C, Persson, S, Bergstrom, A, Berkius, J, Holmstrom, J, van Dijk, I, van Lelyveld-Haas, L, Ramnarain, D, Jansen, T, Nooteboom, F, van der Voort, P, Dieperink, W, de Waard, M, Bormans, L, Dormans, T, Dempsey, G, Mathew, S, Raj, A, Grecu, I, Cupitt, J, Lawton, T, Clark, R, Popescu, M, Spittle, N, Faulkner, M, Cowton, A, Elloway, E, Williams, P, Reay, M, Chukkambotla, S, Kumar, R, Al-Subaie, N, Kent, L, Tamm, T, Kajtor, I, Burns, K, Pugh, R, Ostermann, M, Kam, E, Bowyer, H, Smith, N, Templeton, M, Henning, J, Goffin, K, Kapoor, R, Laha, S, Chilton, P, Khaliq, W, Crayford, A, Coetzee, S, Tait, M, Stoker, W, Gimenez, M, Pope, A, Camsooksai, J, Pogson, D, Quigley, K, Ritzema, J, Hormis, A, Boulanger, C, Balasubramaniam, M, Vamplew, L, Burt, K, Martin, D, Craig, J, Prowle, J, Doyle, N, Shelton, J, Scott, C, Donnison, P, Shelton, S, Frey, C, Ryan, C, Spray, D, Barnes, V, Barnes, K, Ridgway, S, Saha, R, Clark, T, Wood, J, Bolger, C, Bassford, C, Lewandowski, J, Zhao, X, Humphreys, S, Dowling, S, Richardson, N, Burtenshaw, A, Stevenson, C, Wilcock, D, Nalapko, Y, de Lange D.W., Brinkman S., Flaatten H., Boumendil A., Morandi A., Andersen F.H., Artigas A., Bertolini G., Cecconi M., Christensen S., Faraldi L., Fjolner J., Jung C., Marsh B., Moreno R., Oeyen S., Ohman C.A., Bollen Pinto B., de Smet A.M.G.A., Soliman I.W., Szczeklik W., Valentin A., Watson X., Zafeiridis T., Guidet B., Schmutz R., Wimmer F., Eller P., Joannidis M., De Buysscher P., De Neve N., Swinnen W., Abraham P., Hergafi L., Schefold Joerg.C., Biskup E., Piza P., Taliadoros I., Dey N., Solling C., Rasmussen B.S., Forceville X., Besch G., Mentec H., Michel P., Mateu P., Vettoretti L., Bourenne J., Marin N., Guillot M., Aissaoui N., Goulenok C., Thieulot-Rolin N., Messika J., Lamhaut L., Charron C., Lauten A., Sacher A.L., Brenner T., Franz M., Bloos F., Ebelt H., Schaller S.J., Fuest Kristina., Rabe C., Dieck T., Steiner S., Graf T., Nia A.M., Janosi R.A., Meybohm P., Simon P., Utzolino S., Rahmel T., Barth E., Schuster M., Aidoni Z., Aloizos S., Tasioudis P., Lampiri K., Zisopoulou V., Ravani I., Pagaki E., Antoniou A., Katsoulas T.A., Kounougeri A., Marinakis G., Tsimpoukas F., Spyropoulou A., Zygoulis P., Kyparissi A., Gupta M., Gurjar M., Maji I.M., Hayes I., Kelly Y., Westbrook A., Fitzpatrick G., Maheshwari D., Motherway C., Negri G., Spadaro S., Nattino G., Pedeferri M., Boscolo A., Rossi S., Calicchio G., Cubattoli L., Di Lascio G., Barbagallo M., Berruto F., Codazzi D., Bottazzi A., Fumagalli P., Negro G., Lupi G., Savelli F., Vulcano Giuseppe.A., Fumagalli R., Marudi A., Lefons U., Lembo R., Babini M., Paggioro A., Parrini V., Zaccaria M., Clementi S., Gigliuto C., Facondini F., Pastorini S., Munaron S., Calamai I., Bocchi A., Adorni A., Bocci M.G., Cortegiani A., Casalicchio T., Mellea S., Graziani E., Barattini M., Brizio E., Rossi M., Hahn M., Kemmerer N., Strietzel H.F., Dybwik K., Legernaes T., Klepstad P., Olaussen E.B., Olsen K.I., Brresen O.M., Bjorsvik G., Maini S., Fehrle L., Czuczwar M., Krawczyk P., Zietkiewicz M., Nowak L.R., Kotfis K., Cwyl K., Gajdosz R., Biernawska J., Bohatyrewicz Romuald., Gawda R., Grudzien P., Nasilowski P., Popek N., Cyrankiewicz W., Wawrzyniak K., Wnuk M., Maciejewski D., Studzinska D., Zukowski M., Bernas S., Piechota M., Nowak I., Fronczek J., Serwa M., Machala W., Stefaniak J., Wujtewicz M., Maciejewski P., Szymkowiak M., Adamik B., Catorze N., Branco M.C., Barros I., Barros N., Krystopchuk A., Honrado T., Sousa C., Munoz F., Rebelo M., Gomes R., Nunes J., Dias Celeste., Fernandes A.M., Petrisor C., Constantin B., Belskiy V., Boskholov B., Rodriguez E., Rebollo S., Aguilar G., Masdeu G., Jaimes M.I., Mira A.P., Bodi Maria.A., Mendoza J.A.B., Cuenca S.L., Guzman M.H., Rico-Feijoo J., Ibarz M., Alvarez J.T., Kawati R., Sivik J., Nauska J., Smole D., Parenmark F., Lyren J., Rockstroh K., Ryden S., Strinnholm M., Walther S., De Geer L., Nordlund P., Palsson S., Zetterquist H., Nilsson A., Thiringer K., Jungner M., Bark B., Nordling B., Skold H., Brorsson C., Persson S., Bergstrom A., Berkius J., Holmstrom J., van Dijk I., van Lelyveld-Haas L.E.M., Ramnarain D., Jansen T., Nooteboom F., van der Voort P.H.J., Dieperink W., de Waard M.C., Bormans L., Dormans Tom., Dempsey G., Mathew S.J., Raj A.S., Grecu I., Cupitt J., Lawton T., Clark R., Popescu M., Spittle N., Faulkner M., Cowton A., Elloway E., Williams P., Reay M., Chukkambotla S., Kumar R., Al-Subaie N., Kent L., Tamm T., Kajtor I., Burns K., Pugh R., Ostermann M., Kam E., Bowyer H., Smith N., Templeton M., Henning J., Goffin K., Kapoor R., Laha S., Chilton P., Khaliq W., Crayford A., Coetzee S., Tait M., Stoker W., Gimenez M., Pope A., Camsooksai J., Pogson D., Quigley K., Ritzema J., Hormis A., Boulanger C., Balasubramaniam M., Vamplew L., Burt K., Martin D., Craig J., Prowle J., Doyle N., Shelton J., Scott Carmen., Donnison P., Shelton S., Frey C., Ryan C., Spray D., Barnes V., Barnes K., Ridgway S., Saha R., Clark T., Wood J., Bolger C., Bassford C., Lewandowski J., Zhao X., Humphreys S., Dowling S., Richardson N., Burtenshaw A., Stevenson C., Wilcock D., Nalapko Y., University Medical Center [Utrecht], University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (UvA), Public Health Service of Amsterdam, University of Bergen (UiB), Haukeland University Hospital, Service de Réanimation Médicale [CHU Saint-Antoine], Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-CHU Saint-Antoine [AP-HP], Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Norwegian University of Science and Technology [Trondheim] (NTNU), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS), Aarhus University Hospital, Centro Hospitalar de Lisboa Central E.P.E, Ghent University Hospital, Karolinska University Hospital [Stockholm], Geneva University Hospital (HUG), University Medical Center Groningen [Groningen] (UMCG), Uniwersytet Jagielloński w Krakowie = Jagiellonian University (UJ), Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (iPLESP), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), VIP1 Study Group (Beitragende*r), and Janosi, Rolf Alexander (Beitragende*r)
- Subjects
Male ,INTENSIVE-CARE-UNIT ,Organ Dysfunction Scores ,medicine.medical_treatment ,Prognosis ,Medizin ,DECISION-MAKING ,Logistic regression ,law.invention ,older adult ,0302 clinical medicine ,PHYSICIANS ,Interquartile range ,law ,80 and over ,Medicine and Health Sciences ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Hospital Mortality ,Prospective Studies ,Prospective cohort study ,older adults ,Aged, 80 and over ,predict ,ddc:617 ,Respiration ,[SDV.MHEP.GEG]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Geriatry and gerontology ,Brief Report ,Intensive care unit ,ADMISSION ,3. Good health ,Europe ,Hospitalization ,Intensive Care Units ,Brier score ,Older adults ,Artificial ,Female ,prognosi ,medicine.medical_specialty ,critical care ,model ,prognosis ,Humans ,Respiration, Artificial ,03 medical and health sciences ,Intensive care ,medicine ,Journal Article ,ILL ELDERLY-PATIENTS ,Renal replacement therapy ,Aged ,Receiver operating characteristic ,business.industry ,030208 emergency & critical care medicine ,Emergency medicine ,[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie ,Brief Reports ,Geriatrics and Gerontology ,business - Abstract
OBJECTIVES To develop a scoring system model that predicts mortality within 30 days of admission of patients older than 80 years admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). DESIGN Prospective cohort study. SETTING A total of 306 ICUs from 24 European countries. PARTICIPANTS Older adults admitted to European ICUs (N = 3730; median age = 84 years [interquartile range = 81‐87 y]; 51.8% male). MEASUREMENTS Overall, 24 variables available during ICU admission were included as potential predictive variables. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of 30‐day mortality. Model sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were evaluated with receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS The 30‐day‐mortality was 1562 (41.9%). In multivariable analysis, these variables were selected as independent predictors of mortality: age, sex, ICU admission diagnosis, Clinical Frailty Scale, Sequential Organ Failure Score, invasive mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy. The discrimination, accuracy, and calibration of the model were good: the area under the curve for a score of 10 or higher was .80, and the Brier score was .18. At a cut point of 10 or higher (75% of all patients), the model predicts 30‐day mortality in 91.1% of all patients who die. CONCLUSION A predictive model of cumulative events predicts 30‐day mortality in patients older than 80 years admitted to ICUs. Future studies should include other potential predictor variables including functional status, presence of advance care plans, and assessment of each patient's decision‐making capacity. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
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- 2019
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