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Aim: How the ability of plants to move towards newly favourable habitats (dispersal limitation) impacts the change of biome distribution and transition under fast climate warming is still debated. Analysing vegetation change in the past may help to clarify the relative importance of underlying ecological processes such as climate, biotic interactions, and dispersal. In this study, we investigated how dispersal limitation affected the distribution of European forests in the last 18,000 years. Location: Southern and Central Europe. Taxon: Spermatophyta. Methods: Using the LPJ-GM 2.0 model (an extension of LPJ-GUESS), we simulated European vegetation from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (18.5 ka) to the current time (0 ka). Using biome reconstructions from pollen data as reference, we compared the performance of two dispersal modes: with no migration constraints or seed limitation (free dispersal mode), and with plant establishment depending on seed dynamics and dispersal (dispersal limitation mode). Results: The model run, including migration processes, was better at capturing the post-glacial expansion of European temperate forests (and the longer persistence of boreal forests) than the setting assuming free dispersal, especially during periods of rapid warming. This suggests that a number of (temperate) tree taxa experienced delayed occupancy of climatically suitable habitats due to a limited dispersal capacity, i.e., post-glacial migration lags. Main Conclusions: Our results show that including migration processes in model simulations allows for more realistic reconstructions of forest patterns under rapid climate change, with consequences for future projections of carbon sequestration and climate reconstructions with vegetation feedback, assisted migration and forest conservation.

Introduction: The ability of species to colonize newly suitable habitats under rapid climate change can be constrained by migration processes, resulting in a shift of the leading edge lagging behind the ameliorating climate, i.e. migration lag. The importance and extent of such migration lags during the forest expansion after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are still debated. Similarly, the relative importance of the main drivers of post-glacial vegetation dynamics (temperature, dispersal limitation, and competition) is still discussed in the literature. Methods: We used the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GM 2.0 to reconstruct the range shifts of 16 competing major European tree species after the LGM (18.5 ka BP) until recent times (0 ka BP). We simulated two dispersal modes by allowing free establishment whenever the climatic conditions suited the species (free dispersal), or by accounting for migration processes in the simulated vegetation dynamics (dispersal limitation). We then calculated thermal and range shift velocities, competition at establishment, thermal and dispersal lags for each species and dispersal mode. Finally, we compared our simulated range shift velocities with pollen-derived migration rates. Results: The simulation assuming limited dispersal resulted in more accurate migration rates as compared to pollen-derived migration rates and spreading patterns. We found no marked migration lags in the post-glacial establishment of pioneer species (Pinus sylvestris and Betula pubescens). Under the free dispersal mode, the remaining temperate species expanded rapidly and almost synchronously across central Europe upon climate warming (Bølling-Allerød interstadial). Differently, the northward spread of temperate species simulated under dispersal limitation happened mainly during the Holocene and in successive waves, with late spreaders (e.g. Fraxinus excelsior) experiencing multi-millennial dispersal lags and higher competition. Discussion: Our simulati

We present a novel, global 30 arc seconds (similar to 1 km at the equator) population projection dataset covering each year from 2010 to 2100 that is consistent with both country level population and gridded urban fractions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). While IPCC population projections until 2100 are available at country level for Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), land cover (including the urban fraction) is only available for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To perform simulations of e.g., future supply and demand for agricultural products, fine scale projections of population density are needed for combinations of SSPs and RCPs. Therefore, we generated a 30 arc seconds dataset consistent with both SSPs and RCPs within the framework of the IPCC. This data set is useful in applications where spatially explicit projections of aspects of global change are investigated at a fine spatial scale. For example, if a link function between night-time lights and population density is found based on current satellite images and recent population density data, a projection of night-time light lights can be generated by using this link function with our projected population density. Such a projection can for example be used to evaluate the potential for future light pollution.

Current large-scale deforestation poses a threat to ecosystems globally, and imposes substantial and prolonged changes on the hydrological and carbon cycles. The tropical forests of the Amazon and Indonesia are currently undergoing deforestation with catastrophic ecological consequences but widespread deforestation events have occurred several times in Earth’s history and these provide lessons for the future. The end-Permian mass-extinction event (EPE; ∼252Ma) provides a global, deep-time analogue for modern deforestation and diversity loss. We undertook centimeter-resolution palynological, sedimentological, carbon stable-isotope and paleobotanical investigations of strata spanning the end-Permian event at the Frazer Beach and Snapper Point localities, in the Sydney Basin, Australia. We show that the typical Permian temperate, coal-forming, forest communities disappeared abruptly, followed by the accumulation of a 1-m-thick mudstone poor in organic matter that, in effect, represents a ‘dead zone’ hosting degraded wood fragments, charcoal and fungal spores. This signals a catastrophic scenario of vegetation die-off and extinction in southern high-latitude terrestrial settings. Lake systems, expressed by laterally extensive but generally less than a few-metres-thick laminated siltstones, generally lacking bioturbation, hosting assemblages of algal cysts and freshwater acritarchs, developed soon after the vegetation die-off. The first traces of vascular plant recovery occur ∼1.6m above the extinction horizon. Based on analogies with modern deforestation, we propose that the global fungal and acritarch events of the Permo-Triassic transition resulted directly from inundation of basinal areas following water-table rise as a response to the abrupt disappearance of complex vegetation from the landscape. The δ13Corg values reveal a significant excursion toward low isotopic values, down to −31ppt (a shift of ∼4deg), across the end-Permian event. The magnitude of the shift at, Also funded by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and by a collaborative research grant from the National Science Foundation USA (EAR-1636625)

Savannah regions are predicted to undergo changes in precipitation patterns according to current climate change projections. This change will affect leaf phenology, which controls net primary productivity. It is of importance to study this since savannahs play an important role in the global carbon cycle due to their areal coverage and can have an effect on the food security in regions that depend on subsistence farming. In this study we investigate how soil moisture, mean annual precipitation, and day length control savannah phenology by developing a lagged time series model. The model uses climate data for 15 flux tower sites across four continents, and normalized difference vegetation index from satellite to optimize a statistical phenological model. We show that all three variables can be used to estimate savannah phenology on a global scale. However, it was not possible to create a simplified savannah model that works equally well for all sites on the global scale without inclusion of more site specific parameters. The simplified model showed no bias towards tree cover or between continents and resulted in a cross-validated r2 of 0.6 and root mean squared error of 0.1. We therefore expect similar average results when applying the model to other savannah areas and further expect that it could be used to estimate the productivity of savannah regions. Figures

Coprolites from the Early Cretaceous vertebrate bone-bed at Ariño in Teruel, Spain, were analyzed geochemically and palynologically. They contain various inclusions, such as small bone fragments, abundant plant remains, pollen, and spores. We attribute the coprolites to carnivorous dinosaurs based partly on their morphology together with the presence of bone fragments, and a high content of calcium phosphate (hydroxylapatite) with calcite. Well-preserved pollen and spore assemblages were identified in all coprolite samples and a slightly poorer assemblage was obtained from the adjacent sediments, both indicating an Early Cretaceous (Albian) age. This shows that the coprolites are in situ and also confirms previous age determinations for the host strata. The depositional environment is interpreted as a continental wetland based on the palynoflora, which includes several hydrophilic taxa, together with sparse occurrences of fresh-water algae, such as Ovoidites, and the absence of marine palynomorphs. Although the coprolites of Ariño samples generally are dominated by pollen produced by Taxodiaceae (cypress) and Cheirolepidiaceae (a family of extinct conifers), the sediment samples have a slightly higher relative abundance of fern spores. The distribution of major organic components varies between the coprolite and sediment samples, which is manifest by the considerably higher charcoal percentage within the coprolites. The high quantities of charcoal might be explained by a ground-dwelling species, feeding on smaller vertebrates that complemented its diet with plant material from a paleoenvironment were wild fires were a part of the ecosystem. The state of preservation of the spores and pollen is also more detailed in the coprolites, suggesting that encasement in calcium phosphate may inhibit degradation of sporopollenin.

The forest, savanna, and grassland biomes, and the transitions between them, are expected to undergo major changes in the future due to global climate change. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are very useful for understanding vegetation dynamics under the present climate, and for predicting its changes under future conditions. However, several DGVMs display high uncertainty in predicting vegetation in tropical areas. Here we perform a comparative analysis of three different DGVMs (JSBACH, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE and aDGVM) with regard to their representation of the ecological mechanisms and feedbacks that determine the forest, savanna, and grassland biomes, in an attempt to bridge the knowledge gap between ecology and global modeling. The outcomes of the models, which include different mechanisms, are compared to observed tree cover along a mean annual precipitation gradient in Africa. By drawing on the large number of recent studies that have delivered new insights into the ecology of tropical ecosystems in general, and of savannas in particular, we identify two main mechanisms that need improved representation in the examined DGVMs. The first mechanism includes water limitation to tree growth, and tree–grass competition for water, which are key factors in determining savanna presence in arid and semi-arid areas. The second is a grass–fire feedback, which maintains both forest and savanna presence in mesic areas. Grasses constitute the majority of the fuel load, and at the same time benefit from the openness of the landscape after fires, since they recover faster than trees. Additionally, these two mechanisms are better represented when the models also include tree life stages (adults and seedlings), and distinguish between fire-prone and shade-tolerant forest trees, and fire-resistant and shade-intolerant savanna trees. Including these basic elements could improve the predictive ability of the DGVMs, not only under current climate conditions but also and especi

Healthy and productive forests benefit us all, but what are the priorities of those directly managingour Swedish forests? This brief presents a comparison of the preferences of key stakeholdersregarding Swedish forest management and biodiversity protection. According to the SwedishForest Act production and environmental goals should be regarded as equally important. Our studyfinds that forest owners, public forestry officials and employees at industrial forestry companiesand forest owners’ associations prefer management practices that promote production rather thanbiodiversity protection., Policy Brief

Land use is predicted to have the greatest effect on broad habitat distribution according to our simulations. Hence in most parts of Europe mitigating actions should focus on land‐use change rather than climate change. According to our simulation, the effects of the different drivers are not in general additive. In some cases they act synergistically and in some cases antagonistically. The projected habitat changes are a valuable tool for species distribution modelling and are available online.

Wildfires are a major driver of ecosystem development and contributor to carbon emissions in boreal forests. We analyzed the contribution of fires of different fire size classes to the total burned area and suggest a novel fire characteristic, the characteristic fire size, i.e., the fire size class with the highest contribution to the burned area, its relation to bioclimatic conditions, and intra-annual and interannual variation. We used the Canadian National Fire Database (using data from 1960 to 2010) and a novel satellite-based burned area data set (2001 to 2011). We found that the fire size distribution is best explained by a normal distribution in log space in contrast to the power law-based linear fire area relationship which has prevailed in the literature so far. We attribute the difference to previous studies in the scale invariance mainly to the large extent of the investigated ecoregion as well as to unequal binning or limiting the range at which the relationship is analyzed; in this way we also question the generality of the scale invariance for ecoregions even outside the boreal domain. The characteristic fire sizes and the burned area show a weak correlation, indicating different mechanisms behind each feature. Fire sizes are found to depend markedly on the ecoregion and have increased over the last five decades for Canada in total, being most pronounced in the early season. In the late season fire size and area decreased, indicating an earlier start of the fire season.

The forest, savanna, and grassland biomes, and the transitions between them, are expected to undergo major changes in the future, due to global climate change. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are very useful to understand vegetation dynamics under present climate, and to predict its changes under future conditions. However, several DGVMs display high uncertainty in predicting vegetation in tropical areas. Here we perform a comparative analysis of three different DGVMs (JSBACH, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE and aDGVM) with regard to their representation of the ecological mechanisms and feedbacks that determine the forest, savanna and grassland biomes, in an attempt to bridge the knowledge gap between ecology and global modelling. Model outcomes, obtained including different mechanisms, are compared to observed tree cover along a mean annual precipitation gradient in Africa. Through these comparisons, and by drawing on the large number of recent studies that have delivered new insights into the ecology of tropical ecosystems in general, and of savannas in particular, we identify two main mechanisms that need an improved representation in the DGVMs. The first mechanism includes water limitation to tree growth, and tree-grass competition for water, which are key factors in determining savanna presence in arid and semi-arid areas. The second is a grass-fire feedback, which maintains both forest and savanna occurrences in mesic areas. Grasses constitute the majority of the fuel load, and at the same time benefit from the openness of the landscape after fires, since they recover faster than trees. Additionally, these two mechanisms are better represented when the models also include tree life stages (adults and seedlings), and distinguish between fire-prone and shade-tolerant savanna trees, and fire-resistant and shade-intolerant forest trees. Including these basic elements could improve the predictive ability of the DGVMs, not only under current climate conditions but also