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BACKGROUND: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease.METHODS: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose–response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12·5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5·6 years [5th–95th percentile 1·04–13·5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies.FINDINGS: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5·4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1·14, 95% CI, 1·10–1·17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1·06, 1·00–1·11), heart failure (1·09, 1·03–1·15), fatal hypertensive disease (1·24, 1·15–1·33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1·15, 1·03–1·28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was log-linearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0·94, 0·91–0·97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0–≤100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100–≤200 g per week, >200–≤350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1–2 years, or 4–5 years, respectively.INTERPRETATION: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines.FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, European Union Framework 7, and European Research Council.

Introduction: Beverage consumption is a modifiable risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), but there is insufficient evidence to inform the suitability of substituting 1 type of beverage for another. Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate the risk of T2D when consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) was replaced with consumption of fruit juice, milk, coffee, or tea. Methods: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study of 8 European countries (n = 27,662, with 12,333 cases of incident T2D, 1992-2007), beverage consumption was estimated at baseline by dietary questionnaires. Using Prentice-weighted Cox regression adjusting for other beverages and potential confounders, we estimated associations of substituting 1 type of beverage for another on incident T2D. Results: Mean +/- SD of estimated consumption of SSB was 55 +/- 105 g/d. Means +/- SDs for the other beverages were as follows: fruit juice, 59 +/- 101 g/d; milk, 209 +/- 203 g/d; coffee, 381 +/- 372 g/d; and tea, 152 +/- 282 g/d. Substituting coffee for SSBs by 250 g/d was associated with a 21% lower incidence of T2D (95% CI: 12%, 29%). The rate difference was -12.0 (95% CI: -20.0, -5.0) per 10,000 person-years among adults consuming SSBs >= 250 g/d (absolute rate = 48.3/10,000). Substituting tea for SSBs was estimated to lower T2D incidence by 22% (95% CI: 15%, 28%) or -11.0 (95% CI:-20.0, -2.6) per 10,000 person-years, whereas substituting fruit juice or milk was estimated not to alter T2D risk significantly. Conclusions: These findings indicate a potential benefit of substituting coffee or tea for SSBs for the primary prevention of T2D and may help formulate public health recommendations on beverage consumption in different populations., The InterAct project was funded by the EU FP6 program (LSHM_CT_2006_037197). InterAct investigators acknowledge funding from the following agencies: Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit Core Support (MC_UU_12015/1, MC_UU_12015/5); National Institute for Health Research, Biomedical Research Centre Cambridge: Nutrition, Diet, and Lifestyle Research Theme (IS-BRC-1215-20014); the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the German Center for Diabetes Research, the State of Brandenburg, Germany; Netherlands Agency grant IGE05012 and an Incentive Grant from the Board of the University Medical Center Utrecht (Netherlands); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare, and Sports, Netherlands Cancer Registry, LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund, and Statistics Netherlands; Swedish Research Council, Novo Nordisk, Swedish Heart Lung Foundation, and Swedish Diabetes Association; Danish Cancer Society; Deutsche Krebshilfe; Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro; Asturias Regional Government; Navarra Regional Government, Health Research Fund of the Spanish Ministry of Health; CIBER Epidemiologia y Salud Publica, Spain; Murcia Regional Government (grant 6236); and AIRE-ONLUS Ragusa, AVIS-Ragusa, and Sicilian Regional Government.

Aims: The hypothesis of ‘metabolically healthy obesity’ implies that, in the absence of metabolic dysfunction, individuals with excess adiposity are not at greater cardiovascular risk. We tested this hypothesis in a large pan-European prospective study. Methods and results: We conducted a case-cohort analysis in the 520 000-person European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study (‘EPIC-CVD’). During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, we recorded 7637 incident coronary heart disease (CHD) cases. Using cut-offs recommended by guidelines, we defined obesity and overweight using body mass index (BMI), and metabolic dysfunction (‘unhealthy’) as >_ 3 of elevated blood pressure, hypertriglyceridaemia, low HDL-cholesterol, hyperglycaemia, and elevated waist circumference. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) within each country using Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regressions, accounting for age, sex, centre, education, smoking, diet, and physical activity. Compared with metabolically healthy normal weight people (reference), HRs were 2.15 (95% CI: 1.79; 2.57) for unhealthy normal weight, 2.33 (1.97; 2.76) for unhealthy overweight, and 2.54 (2.21; 2.92) for unhealthy obese people. Compared with the reference group, HRs were 1.26 (1.14; 1.40) and 1.28 (1.03; 1.58) for metabolically healthy overweight and obese people, respectively. These results were robust to various sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Irrespective of BMI, metabolically unhealthy individuals had higher CHD risk than their healthy counterparts. Conversely, irrespective of metabolic health, overweight and obese people had higher CHD risk than lean people. These findings challenge the concept of ‘metabolically healthy obesity’, encouraging population-wide strategies to tackle obesity., European Union (EU) HEALTH-F2-2012-279233, European Research Council (ERC) 268834, Medical Research Council UK (MRC) G0800270 MR/L003120/1 MR/M012190/1, British Heart Foundation SP/09/002 RG/08/014 RG13/13/30194, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Regional Government of Asturias, Hellenic Health Foundation, German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Centre, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Cancer Research UK 570/A16491, Regione Sicilia, Associazione Iblea per la Ricerca Epidemiologica (A.I.R.E.) - ONLUS Ragusa, Associazione Volontari Italiani Sangue AVIS Ragusa, Compagnia di San Paolo, Human Genetics Foundation-Torino (HuGeF), British Heart Foundation RG/13/13/30194 RG/08/014/24067, Cancer Research UK 16491, Medical Research Council UK (MRC) MR/L003120/1 G0800270 MC_UU_12015/1, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) NF-SI-0512-10135 NF-SI-0512-10165, Novo Nordisk Foundation NNF17OC0026936

Background Earlier age at menopause has been associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but the shape of association and role of established cardiovascular risk factors remain unclear. Therefore, we examined the associations between menopausal characteristics and CHD risk; the shape of the association between age at menopause and CHD risk; and the extent to which these associations are explained by established cardiovascular risk factors. Methods We used data from EPIC-CVD, a case–cohort study, which includes data from 23 centres from 10 European countries. We included only women, of whom 10 880 comprise the randomly selected sub-cohort, supplemented with 4522 cases outside the sub-cohort. We conducted Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazards regressions with age as the underlying time scale, stratified by country and adjusted for relevant confounders. Results After confounder and intermediate adjustment, post-menopausal women were not at higher CHD risk compared with pre-menopausal women. Among post-menopausal women, earlier menopause was linearly associated with higher CHD risk [HRconfounder and intermediate adjusted per-year decrease = 1.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01–1.03, p = 0.001]. Women with a surgical menopause were at higher risk of CHD compared with those with natural menopause (HRconfounder-adjusted = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.10–1.42, p Conclusions Earlier and surgical menopause were associated with higher CHD risk. These associations could partially be explained by differences in conventional cardiovascular risk factors. These women might benefit from close monitoring of cardiovascular risk factors and disease.

Background: Surveillance of congenital anomalies is important to identify potential teratogens. Despite known associations between different anomalies, current surveillance methods examine trends within each subgroup separately. We aimed to evaluate whether hierarchical statistical methods that combine information from several subgroups simultaneously would enhance current surveillance methods using data collected by EUROCAT, a European network of population-based congenital anomaly registries. Methods: Ten-year trends (2003 to 2012) in 18 EUROCAT registries over 11 countries were analyzed for the following groups of anomalies: neural tube defects, congenital heart defects, digestive system, and chromosomal anomalies. Hierarchical Poisson regression models that combined related subgroups together according to EUROCAT's hierarchy of subgroup coding were applied. Results from hierarchical models were compared with those from Poisson models that consider each congenital anomaly separately. Results: Hierarchical models gave similar results as those obtained when considering each anomaly subgroup in a separate analysis. Hierarchical models that included only around three subgroups showed poor convergence and were generally found to be over-parameterized. Larger sets of anomaly subgroups were found to be too heterogeneous to group together in this way. Conclusion: There were no substantial differences between independent analyses of each subgroup and hierarchical models when using the EUROCAT anomaly subgroups. Considering each anomaly separately, therefore, remains an appropriate method for the detection of potential changes in prevalence by surveillance systems. Hierarchical models do, however, remain an interesting alternative method of analysis when considering the risks of specific exposures in relation to the prevalence of congenital anomalies, which could be investigated in other studies.

Objective: To test previous signals of a risk of orofacial cleft (OC) and clubfoot with exposure to the antiepileptic lamotrigine, and to investigate risk of other congenital anomalies (CA).Methods: This was a population-based case–malformed control study based on 21 EUROCAT CA registries covering 10.1 million births (1995–2011), including births to 2005 in which the clubfoot signal was generated and a subsequent independent study population of 6.3 million births. A total of 226,806 babies with CA included livebirths, stillbirths, and terminations of pregnancy following prenatal diagnosis. First-trimester lamotrigine monotherapy exposure in OC cases and clubfoot cases was compared to other nonchromosomal CA (controls). Odds ratios (OR) were adjusted for registry. An exploratory analysis compared the proportion of each standard EUROCAT CA subgroup among all babies with nonchromosomal CA exposed to lamotrigine monotherapy with non-AED exposed pregnancies.Results: There were 147 lamotrigine monotherapy-exposed babies with nonchromosomal CA. For all OC, ORadj was 1.31 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73–2.33), isolated OC 1.45 (95% CI 0.80–2.63), isolated cleft palate 1.69 (95% CI 0.69–4.15). Overall ORadj for clubfoot was 1.83 (95% CI 1.01–3.31) and 1.43 (95% CI 0.66–3.08) in the independent study population. No other specific CA were significantly associated with lamotrigine monotherapy.Conclusions: The risk of OC was not significantly raised and we estimate the excess risk of OC to be less than 1 in every 550 exposed babies. We have not found strong independent evidence of a risk of clubfoot subsequent to our original signal. Our study cannot assess the general malformation risk among lamotrigine-exposed pregnancies.

Background: The literature has consistently shown that extreme social-economic groups predicted type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), rather than summarising the social gradient throughout all society stratification. Body mass index (BMI) was established as the principal mediator, with little support for other anthropometries. Our aim was to investigate an individual life-course social position (LiSoP) gradient and its mediators with T2D risk in the EPIC-Spain cohort. Methods: 36 296 participants (62% women), mostly aged 30–65 years, and free of T2D at baseline (1992–1996) were followed up for a mean of 12.1 years. A combined score of paternal occupation in childhood and own adult education assessed individual life-course social risk accumulation. Hazard ratios of T2D were estimated using Cox regression, stratifying by centre and age, and adjusting for different explanatory models, including anthropometric indices; dietary history; smoking and physical activity lifestyles; and clinical information. Results: Final models evidenced significant risks in excess of 63% for middle and 90% for lower classes of LiSoP in men; and of 104 and 126%, respectively, in women. Concurrently, LiSoP presented significant social gradients for T2D risk ( P < 0.01) in both sexes. Waist circumference (WC) accounted for most of the risk excess in women, and BMI and WC in men. Conclusions: LiSoP gradient was related to T2D risk in Spanish men and women. WC mostly explained the relationship in both genders, together with BMI in men, yet LiSoP retained an independent effect in final models.

Background Surveillance of congenital anomalies is important to identify potential teratogens. Methods This study analysed the prevalence of 61 congenital anomaly subgroups (excluding chromosomal) in 25 population-based EUROCAT registries (1980–2012). Live births, fetal deaths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were analysed with multilevel random-effects Poisson regression models. Results Seventeen anomaly subgroups had statistically significant trends from 2003±2012; 12 increasing and 5 decreasing. Conclusions The annual increasing prevalence of severe congenital heart defects, single ventricle, atrioventricular septal defects and tetralogy of Fallot of 1.4% (95% CI: 0.7% to 2.0%), 4.6% (1.0% to 8.2%), 3.4% (1.3% to 5.5%) and 4.1% (2.4% to 5.7%) respectively may reflect increases in maternal obesity and diabetes (known risk factors). The increased prevalence of cystic adenomatous malformation of the lung [6.5% (3.5% to 9.4%)] and decreased prevalence of limb reduction defects [-2.8% (-4.2% to -1.5%)] are unexplained. For renal dysplasia and maternal infections, increasing trends may be explained by increased screening, and deceases in patent ductus arteriosus at term and increases in craniosynostosis, by improved follow up period after birth and improved diagnosis. For oesophageal atresia, duodenal atresia/stenosis and ano-rectal atresia/stenosis recent changes in prevalence appeared incidental when compared with larger long term fluctuations. For microcephaly and congenital hydronephrosis trends could not be interpreted due to discrepancies in diagnostic criteria. The trends for club foot and syndactyly disappeared once registries with disparate results were excluded. No decrease in neural tube defects was detected, despite efforts at prevention through folic acid supplementation.

OBJECTIVE:To investigate the association between alcohol consumption (at baseline and over lifetime) and non-fatal and fatal coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. DESIGN:Multicentre case-cohort study. SETTING:A study of cardiovascular disease (CVD) determinants within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition cohort (EPIC-CVD) from eight European countries. PARTICIPANTS:32 549 participants without baseline CVD, comprised of incident CVD cases and a subcohort for comparison. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Non-fatal and fatal CHD and stroke (including ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke). RESULTS:There were 9307 non-fatal CHD events, 1699 fatal CHD, 5855 non-fatal stroke, and 733 fatal stroke. Baseline alcohol intake was inversely associated with non-fatal CHD, with a hazard ratio of 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 0.96) per 12 g/day higher intake. There was a J shaped association between baseline alcohol intake and risk of fatal CHD. The hazard ratios were 0.83 (0.70 to 0.98), 0.65 (0.53 to 0.81), and 0.82 (0.65 to 1.03) for categories 5.0-14.9 g/day, 15.0-29.9 g/day, and 30.0-59.9 g/day of total alcohol intake, respectively, compared with 0.1-4.9 g/day. In contrast, hazard ratios for non-fatal and fatal stroke risk were 1.04 (1.02 to 1.07), and 1.05 (0.98 to 1.13) per 12 g/day increase in baseline alcohol intake, respectively, including broadly similar findings for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke. Associations with cardiovascular outcomes were broadly similar with average lifetime alcohol consumption as for baseline alcohol intake, and across the eight countries studied. There was no strong evidence for interactions of alcohol consumption with smoking status on the risk of CVD events. CONCLUSIONS:Alcohol intake was inversely associated with non-fatal CHD risk but positively associated with the risk of different stroke subtypes. This highlights the opposing associations of alcohol intake with different CVD types and strengthens the evidence for policies to reduce alcohol consumption.

Epidemiologic studies have reported that moderate alcohol consumption is inversely associated with the risk of renal cancer. However, there is no information available on the associations in renal cancer subsites. From 1992 through to 2010, 477,325 men and women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort were followed for incident renal cancers (n=931). Baseline and lifetime alcohol consumption was assessed by country-specific, validated dietary questionnaires. Information on past alcohol consumption was collected by lifestyle questionnaires. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from Cox proportional hazard models. In multivariate analysis, total alcohol consumption at baseline was inversely associated with renal cancer; the HR and 95% CI for the increasing categories of total alcohol consumption at recruitment versus the light drinkers category were 0.78 (0.62-0.99), 0.82 (0.64-1.04), 0.70 (0.55-0.90), 0.91 (0.63-1.30), respectively, (p(trend)=0.001). A similar relationship was observed for average lifetime alcohol consumption and for all renal cancer subsites combined or for renal parenchyma subsite. The trend was not observed in hypertensive individuals and not significant in smokers. In conclusion, moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a decreased risk of renal cancer. What's new? Previous studies have indicated that environmental or lifestyle factors may be involved in the etiology of renal cancer, and that moderate alcohol consumption may reduce the risk of this type of cancer. In this very large European study (nearly 500,000 subjects), the authors found that, indeed, total alcohol consumption was inversely associated with renal cancer overall (for all subsites combined), and also with cancers of the renal parenchyma.

Previous studies have shown that over 40% of babies with Down syndrome have a major cardiac anomaly and are more likely to have other major congenital anomalies. Since 2000, many countries in Europe have introduced national antenatal screening programs for Down syndrome. This study aimed to determine if the introduction of these screening programs and the subsequent termination of prenatally detected pregnancies were associated with any decline in the prevalence of additional anomalies in babies born with Down syndrome. The study sample consisted of 7,044 live births and fetal deaths with Down syndrome registered in 28 European population-based congenital anomaly registries covering seven million births during 2000-2010. Overall, 43.6% (95% CI: 42.4-44.7%) of births with Down syndrome had a cardiac anomaly and 15.0% (14.2-15.8%) had a non-cardiac anomaly. Female babies with Down syndrome were significantly more likely to have a cardiac anomaly compared to male babies (47.6% compared with 40.4%, P

OBJECTIVE: Metabolomic is now widely used to characterize metabolic phenotypes associated with lifestyle risk factors such as obesity. The objective of the present study was to explore the associations of body mass index (BMI) with 145 metabolites measured in blood samples in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.METHODS: Metabolites were measured in blood from 392 men from the Oxford (UK) cohort (EPIC-Oxford) and in 327 control subjects who were part of a nested case-control study on hepatobiliary carcinomas (EPIC-Hepatobiliary). Measured metabolites included amino acids, acylcarnitines, hexoses, biogenic amines, phosphatidylcholines, and sphingomyelins. Linear regression models controlled for potential confounders and multiple testing were run to evaluate the associations of metabolite concentrations with BMI.RESULTS: Forty and 45 individual metabolites showed significant differences according to BMI variations, in the EPIC-Oxford and EPIC-Hepatobiliary sub-cohorts, respectively. Twenty two individual metabolites were associated with BMI in both sub-cohorts including kynurenine, one sphingomyelin, glutamate and 19 phosphatidylcholines.CONCLUSIONS: The present findings provide additional knowledge on blood metabolic signatures of BMI in European adults, which may help identifying mechanisms mediating the relationship of BMI with obesity-related diseases.

ObjectiveTo validate the estimates of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) due to congenital anomaly for Europe by comparing infant mortality data collected by EUROCAT registries with the WHO Mortality Database, and by assessing the significance of stillbirths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA) in the interpretation of infant mortality statistics.Design, setting and outcome measuresEUROCAT is a network of congenital anomaly registries collecting data on live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks’ gestation and TOPFA. Data from 29 registries in 19 countries were analysed for 2005–2009, and infant mortality (deaths of live births at age ResultsAccording to WHO, 17%–42% of infant mortality was attributed to congenital anomaly. In 11 EUROCAT countries, average infant mortality with congenital anomaly was 1.1 per 1000 births, with higher rates where TOPFA is illegal (Malta 3.0, Ireland 2.1). The rate of stillbirths with congenital anomaly was 0.6 per 1000. The average TOPFA prevalence was 4.6 per 1000, nearly three times more prevalent than stillbirths and infant deaths combined. TOPFA also impacted on the prevalence of postneonatal survivors with non-lethal congenital anomaly.ConclusionsBy excluding TOPFA and stillbirths from GBD years of life lost (YLL) estimates, GBD underestimates the burden of disease due to congenital anomaly, and thus declining YLL over time may obscure lack of progress in primary, secondary and tertiary prevention.

The current epidemiologic evidence suggests that men with type 2 diabetes mellitus may be at lower risk of developing prostate cancer, but little is known about its association with stage and grade of the disease. The association between self-reported diabetes mellitus at recruitment and risk of prostate cancer was examined in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Among 139,131 eligible men, 4,531 were diagnosed with prostate cancer over an average follow-up of 12 years. Multivariable hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models stratified by EPIC-participating center and age at recruitment, and adjusted for education, smoking status, body mass index, waist circumference, and physical activity. In a subset of men without prostate cancer, the cross-sectional association between circulating concentrations of androgens and insulin-like growth factor proteins with diabetes status was also investigated using linear regression models. Compared to men with no diabetes, men with diabetes had a 26% lower risk of prostate cancer (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.63-0.86). There was no evidence that the association differed by stage (p-heterogeneity, 0.19) or grade (p-heterogeneity, 0.48) of the disease, although the numbers were small in some disease subgroups. In a subset of 626 men with hormone measurements, circulating concentrations of androstenedione, total testosterone and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-three were lower in men with diabetes compared to men without diabetes. This large European study has confirmed an inverse association between self-reported diabetes mellitus and subsequent risk of prostate cancer.

Objective: The aim of this study was to quantify the independent associations between objectively measured physical activity (PA), cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and anthropometry in European men and women. Design and Methods: 2 056 volunteers from 12 centres across Europe were fitted with a heart rate and movement sensor at 2 visits 4 months apart for a total of 8 days. CRF (ml/kg/min) was estimated from an 8 minute ramped step test. A cross-sectional analysis of the independent associations between objectively measured PA (m/s²/d), moderate and vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (%time/d), sedentary time (%time/d), CRF and anthropometry using sex stratified multiple linear regression was performed. Results: In mutually adjusted models, CRF, PA and MVPA were inversely associated with all anthropometric markers in women. In men, CRF, PA and MVPA were inversely associated with BMI whereas only CRF was significantly associated with the other anthropometric markers. Sedentary time was positively associated with all anthropometric markers, however, after adjustment for CRF significant in women only. Conclusion: CRF, PA, MVPA and sedentary time are differently associated with anthropometric markers in men and women. CRF appears to attenuate associations between PA, MVPA and sedentary time. These observations may have implications for prevention of obesity.

Background The aim of this paper is to investigate the causality of the inverse association between cigarette smoking and Parkinson’s disease (PD). The main suggested alternatives include a delaying effect of smoking, reverse causality or an unmeasured confounding related to a low-risk-taking personality trait. Methods A total of 715 incident PD cases were ascertained in a cohort of 220 494 individuals from NeuroEPIC4PD, a prospective European population-based cohort study including 13 centres in eight countries. Smoking habits were recorded at recruitment. We analysed smoking status, duration, and intensity and exposure to passive smoking in relation to PD onset. Results Former smokers had a 20% decreased risk and current smokers a halved risk of developing PD compared with never smokers. Strong dose–response relationships with smoking intensity and duration were found. Hazard ratios (HRs) for smoking 30 years 0.54 (95% CI 0.43–0.36) compared with never smokers. The proportional hazard assumption was verified, showing no change of risk over time, arguing against a delaying effect. Reverse causality was disproved by the consistency of dose–response relationships among former and current smokers. The inverse association between passive smoking and PD, HR 0.70 (95% CI 0.49–0.99) ruled out the effect of unmeasured confounding. Conclusions These results are highly suggestive of a true causal link between smoking and PD, although it is not clear which is the chemical compound in cigarette smoking responsible for the biological effect.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate for the first time the association between body fat and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) with an appropriate prospective study design. METHODS: The EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) study included 518,108 individuals recruited from the general population across 10 Western European countries. At recruitment, information on lifestyle was collected and anthropometric characteristics were measured. Cox hazard models were fitted to investigate the associations between anthropometric measures and ALS mortality. RESULTS: Two hundred twenty-two ALS deaths (79 men and 143 women) occurred during the follow-up period (mean follow-up = 13 years). There was a statistically significant interaction between categories of body mass index and sex regarding ALS risk (p = 0.009): in men, a significant linear decrease of risk per unit of body mass index was observed (hazard ratio = 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.86-0.99 per kg/m(2)); among women, the risk was more than 3-fold increased for underweight compared with normal-weight women. Among women, a significant risk reduction increasing the waist/hip ratio was also evident: women in the top quartile had less than half the risk of ALS compared with those in the bottom quartile (hazard ratio = 0.48, 95% confidence interval 0.25-0.93) with a borderline significant p value for trend across quartiles (p = 0.056). CONCLUSION: Increased prediagnostic body fat is associated with a decreased risk of ALS mortality.

Background and Purpose— Large-scale prospective epidemiological data testing the association between physical activity (PA) and cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs) are scarce, particularly in Europe. The objective was to assess the risk of CVD according to PA levels in adults. Methods— We included a total of 13 576 men and 19 416 women aged 29 to 69 years and participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort in Spain, recruited between 1992 and 1996 and followed-up until 2006 to ascertain incident CVD events. The validated European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition PA questionnaire was used to assess metabolic equivalent × hours per week dedicated to different types of PA. Hazard ratios of CVD by PA levels were estimated using multivariate Cox regression. Extensive baseline data collected on diet, lifestyle habits, medical history, and anthropometry were available to adjust for. Results— A total of 210 transient ischemic attacks and 442 stroke cases (80% ischemic, 10% hemorrhagic, 7% subarachnoid hemorrhage, and 3% mixed or unspecified) were registered after 12.3 years of mean follow-up. Recreational activity was inversely associated with risk of CVD in women but not in men. Women walking for ≥3.5 hours per week were at lower risk of stroke than those who did not engage in regular walking. No significant associations were found for other leisure time activities or vigorous PA with CVD in either sex. Conclusions— Recreational PA of moderate intensity was inversely associated with stroke incidence in women, whereas PA showed no effect on CVD risk in men. Increasing time dedicated to activities such as walking would be expected to help to reduce the stroke burden in women.

Objectives: Microcephaly is a congenital anomaly where the baby’s head is smaller than expected when compared with babies of the same sex, age and ethnicity. Many of these babies will have underdeveloped brains. This study aimed to provide contemporary estimates of the prevalence of microcephaly in Europe, determine if the diagnosis of microcephaly is consistent across Europe and to evaluate whether changes in prevalence would be detected using the current European surveillance performed by EUROCAT (the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies). Design: A questionnaire and a population-based, observational study Setting: 24 EUROCAT registries covering 570,000 births annually in 15 countries. Participants: 2443 cases of microcephaly not associated with a genetic condition, among live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestational age and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly at any gestation. Main Outcome Measures: Prevalence of microcephaly (1st Jan 2003- 31st Dec 2012) analysed using random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneity across registries. Results: Sixteen registries responded to the questionnaire of whom 44% (7/16) used the EUROCAT definition of microcephaly (a reduction in the size of the brain with a skull circumference more than 3 standard deviations (SD) below the mean for sex, age and ethnic origin), 19% (3/16) used a 2 SD cut-off, 31% (5/16) were reliant on the criteria used by individual clinicians and one registry changed criteria between 2003 and 2012. Prevalence of microcephaly in Europe was 1.53 (95% CI : 1.16-1.96) per 10,000 births with registries varying from 0.4 (95% CI : 0.2-0.7) to 4.3 (95% CI : 3.8-4.8) per 10,000 (Chi-squared =338 with 23 degrees of freedom, I2 = 93%). Registries with the 3 SD cut-off reported a prevalence of 1.74 per 10,000 (95% CI: 0.86-2.93) compared with those with the less stringent 2 SD cut-off of 1.21 per 10,000 (95% CI: 0.21-2.93). The prevalence of microcephaly would need to increase in 1 year by over 35% in Europe or by over 300% in a single registry to reach statistical significance (pConclusions: EUROCAT could detect increases in the prevalence of microcephaly due to the Zika virus of a similar magnitude to those observed in Brazil. However, due to the rarity of microcephaly and discrepant diagnostic criteria, the smaller increases expected in Europe would be unlikely to be detected. Clear diagnostic criteria for microcephaly must be adopted across Europe.

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to describe the epidemiology of Ebstein’s anomaly in Europe and its association with maternal health and medication exposure during pregnancy.DesignWe carried out a descriptive epidemiological analysis of population-based data.SettingWe included data from 15 European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies Congenital Anomaly Registries in 12 European countries, with a population of 5.6 million births during 1982–2011.ParticipantsCases included live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly.Main outcome measuresWe estimated total prevalence per 10,000 births. Odds ratios for exposure to maternal illnesses/medications in the first trimester of pregnancy were calculated by comparing Ebstein’s anomaly cases with cardiac and non-cardiac malformed controls, excluding cases with genetic syndromes and adjusting for time period and country.ResultsIn total, 264 Ebstein’s anomaly cases were recorded; 81% were live births, 2% of which were diagnosed after the 1st year of life; 54% of cases with Ebstein’s anomaly or a co-existing congenital anomaly were prenatally diagnosed. Total prevalence rose over time from 0.29 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.20–0.41) to 0.48 (95% CI 0.40–0.57) (pConclusionsThe increasing prevalence of Ebstein’s anomaly may be related to better and earlier diagnosis. Our data suggest that Ebstein’s anomaly is associated with maternal mental health problems generally rather than lithium or benzodiazepines specifically; therefore, changing or stopping medications may not be preventative. We found new associations requiring confirmation.

Studies that have examined the association between alcohol consumption and gastric cancer (GC) risk have been inconsistent. We conducted an investigation of 29 genetic variants in alcohol metabolism loci (alcohol dehydrogenase, ADH1 gene cluster: ADH1A, ADH1B and ADH1C; ADH7 and aldehyde dehydrogenase, ALDH2), alcohol intake and GC risk. We analyzed data from a nested case-control study (364 cases and 1272 controls) within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped using a customized array. We observed a statistically significant association between a common 3'-flanking SNP near ADH1A (rs1230025) and GC risk [allelic odds ratio (OR)(A v T) = 1.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.07-1.59]. Two intronic variants, one in ADH1C (rs283411) and one in ALDH2 (rs16941667), also were associated with GC risk (OR(T v C) = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.38-0.91 and OR(T v C) = 1.34; 95% CI = 1.00-1.79, respectively). Individuals carrying variant alleles at both ADH1 (rs1230025) and ALDH2 (rs16941667) were twice as likely to develop GC (OR(A+T) = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.25-3.20) as those not carrying variant alleles. The association between rs1230025 and GC was modified by alcohol intake (

We aimed to validate genetic variants as instruments for insulin resistance and secretion, to characterize their association with intermediate phenotypes, and to investigate their role in type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk among normal-weight, overweight, and obese individuals. We investigated the association of genetic scores with euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp– and oral glucose tolerance test–based measures of insulin resistance and secretion and a range of metabolic measures in up to 18,565 individuals. We also studied their association with T2D risk among normal-weight, overweight, and obese individuals in up to 8,124 incident T2D cases. The insulin resistance score was associated with lower insulin sensitivity measured by M/I value (β in SDs per allele [95% CI], −0.03 [−0.04, −0.01]; P = 0.004). This score was associated with lower BMI (−0.01 [−0.01, −0.0]; P = 0.02) and gluteofemoral fat mass (−0.03 [−0.05, −0.02; P = 1.4 × 10−6) and with higher alanine transaminase (0.02 [0.01, 0.03]; P = 0.002) and γ-glutamyl transferase (0.02 [0.01, 0.03]; P = 0.001). While the secretion score had a stronger association with T2D in leaner individuals (Pinteraction = 0.001), we saw no difference in the association of the insulin resistance score with T2D among BMI or waist strata (Pinteraction > 0.31). While insulin resistance is often considered secondary to obesity, the association of the insulin resistance score with lower BMI and adiposity and with incident T2D even among individuals of normal weight highlights the role of insulin resistance and ectopic fat distribution in T2D, independently of body size.

Background There is limited evidence for an association between the pattern of lifetime alcohol use and cause-specific risk of death.Methods Multivariable hazard ratios were estimated for different causes of death according to patterns of lifetime alcohol consumption using a competing risks approach: 111 953 men and 268 442 women from eight countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study were included. Self-reported alcohol consumption at ages 20, 30, 40 or 50 years and at enrolment were used for the analysis; 26 411 deaths were observed during an average of 12.6 years of follow-up.Results The association between lifetime alcohol use and death from cardiovascular diseases was different from the association seen for alcohol-related cancers, digestive, respiratory, external and other causes. Heavy users (>5 drinks/day for men and >2.5 drinks/day for women), regardless of time of cessation, had a 2- to 5-times higher risk of dying due to alcohol-related cancers, compared with subjects with lifetime light use (≤1 and ≤0.5 drink/week for men and women, respectively). Compared with lifetime light users, men who used

OBJECTIVE Observational studies show an association between ferritin and type 2 diabetes (T2D), suggesting a role of high iron stores in T2D development. However, ferritin is influenced by factors other than iron stores, which is less the case for other biomarkers of iron metabolism. We investigated associations of ferritin, transferrin saturation (TSAT), serum iron, and transferrin with T2D incidence to clarify the role of iron in the pathogenesis of T2D. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition–InterAct study includes 12,403 incident T2D cases and a representative subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a European cohort with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We studied the prospective association of ferritin, TSAT, serum iron, and transferrin with incident T2D in 11,052 cases and a random subcohort of 15,182 individuals and assessed whether these associations differed by subgroups of the population. RESULTS Higher levels of ferritin and transferrin were associated with a higher risk of T2D (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] in men and women, respectively: 1.07 [1.01–1.12] and 1.12 [1.05–1.19] per 100 μg/L higher ferritin level; 1.11 [1.00–1.24] and 1.22 [1.12–1.33] per 0.5 g/L higher transferrin level) after adjustment for age, center, BMI, physical activity, smoking status, education, hs-CRP, alanine aminotransferase, and γ-glutamyl transferase. Elevated TSAT (≥45% vs. CONCLUSIONS The pattern of association of TSAT and transferrin with T2D suggests that the underlying relationship between iron stores and T2D is more complex than the simple link suggested by the association of ferritin with T2D.

ObjectiveTo prospectively assess the associations between lean fish, fatty fish and total fish intakes and risk of stroke in the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Spain).DesignFish intake was estimated from a validated dietary questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between the intakes of lean fish, fatty fish and total fish and stroke risk. Models were run separately for men and women.SettingFive Spanish regions (Asturias, San Sebastian, Navarra, Granada and Murcia).SubjectsIndividuals (n 41 020; 15 490 men and 25 530 women) aged 20–69 years, recruited from 1992 to 1996 and followed-up until December 2008 (December 2006 in the case of Asturias). Only participants with definite incident stroke were considered as cases.ResultsDuring a mean follow-up of 13·8 years, 674 strokes were identified and subsequently validated by record linkage with hospital discharge databases, primary-care records and regional mortality registries, comprising 531 ischaemic, seventy-nine haemorrhagic, forty-two subarachnoid and twenty-two unspecific strokes. After multiple adjustments, no significant associations were observed between lean fish, fatty fish and total fish consumption and the risk of stroke in men or women. In men, results revealed a non-significant trend towards an inverse association between lean fish (hazard ratio=0·84; 95 % CI 0·55, 1·29, Ptrend=0·06) and total fish consumption (hazard ratio=0·77; 95 % CI 0·51, 1·16, Ptrend=0·06) and risk of total stroke.ConclusionsIn the EPIC-Spain cohort, no association was found between lean fish, fatty fish and total fish consumption and risk of stroke.

Objective: There is uncertainty about the direction and magnitude of the associations between parity, breastfeeding and the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined the separate and combined associations of parity and breastfeeding practices with the incidence of CHD later in life among women in a large, pan-European cohort study. Methods: Data were used from European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD, a case–cohort study nested within the EPIC prospective study of 520,000 participants from 10 countries. Information on reproductive history was available for 14,917 women, including 5138 incident cases of CHD. Using Prentice-weighted Cox regression separately for each country followed by a random-effects meta-analysis, we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CHD, after adjustment for age, study centre and several socioeconomic and biological risk factors. Results: Compared with nulliparous women, the adjusted HR was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.01–1.41) among parous women; HRs were higher among women with more children (e.g., adjusted HR: 1.95 (95% CI: 1.19–3.20) for women with five or more children). Compared with women who did not breastfeed, the adjusted HR was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.52–0.98) among women who breastfed. For childbearing women who never breastfed, the adjusted HR was 1.58 (95% CI: 1.09–2.30) compared with nulliparous women, whereas for childbearing women who breastfed, the adjusted HR was 1.19 (95% CI: 0.99–1.43). Conclusion: Having more children was associated with a higher risk of CHD later in life, whereas breastfeeding was associated with a lower CHD risk. Women who both had children and breastfed did have a non-significantly higher risk of CHD.

Regulatory authorities have indicated that new drugs to treat type 2 diabetes (T2D) should not be associated with an unacceptable increase in cardiovascular risk. Human genetics may be able to guide development of antidiabetic therapies by predicting cardiovascular and other health endpoints. We therefore investigated the association of variants in six genes that encode drug targets for obesity or T2D with a range of metabolic traits in up to 11, 806 individuals by targeted exome sequencing and follow-up in 39, 979 individuals by targeted genotyping, with additional in silico follow-up in consortia. We used these data to first compare associations of variants in genes encoding drug targets with the effects of pharmacological manipulation of those targets in clinical trials. We then tested the association of those variants with disease outcomes, including coronary heart disease, to predict cardiovascular safety of these agents. A low-frequency missense variant (Ala316Thr; rs10305492) in the gene encoding glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP1R), the target of GLP1R agonists, was associated with lower fasting glucose and T2D risk, consistent with GLP1R agonist therapies. The minor allele was also associated with protection against heart disease, thus providing evidence that GLP1R agonists are not likely to be associated with an unacceptable increase in cardiovascular risk. Our results provide an encouraging signal that these agents may be associated with benefit, a question currently being addressed in randomized controlled trials. Genetic variants associated with metabolic traits and multiple disease outcomes can be used to validate therapeutic targets at an early stage in the drug development process. Copyright 2016 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved.

IMPORTANCE: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)-lowering alleles in or near $\textit{NPC1L1}$ or $\textit{HMGCR}$, encoding the respective molecular targets of ezetimibe and statins, have previously been used as proxies to study the efficacy of these lipid-lowering drugs. Alleles near $\textit{HMGCR}$ are associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes, similar to the increased incidence of new-onset diabetes associated with statin treatment in randomized clinical trials. It is unknown whether alleles near $\textit{NPC1L1}$ are associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether LDL-C-lowering alleles in or near $\textit{NPC1L1}$ and other genes encoding current or prospective molecular targets of lipid-lowering therapy (ie, $\textit{HMGCR}$, $\textit{PCSK9}$, $\textit{ABCG5/G8}$, $\textit{LDLR}$) are associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The associations with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease of LDL-C-lowering genetic variants were investigated in meta-analyses of genetic association studies. Meta-analyses included 50 775 individuals with type 2 diabetes and 270 269 controls and 60 801 individuals with coronary artery disease and 123 504 controls. Data collection took place in Europe and the United States between 1991 and 2016. EXPOSURES: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol-lowering alleles in or near $\textit{NPC1L1}$, $\textit{HMGCR}$, $\textit{PCSK9}$, $\textit{ABCG5/G8}$, and $\textit{LDLR}$. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Odds ratios (ORs) for type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease. RESULTS: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol-lowering genetic variants at $\textit{NPC1L1}$ were inversely associated with coronary artery disease (OR for a genetically predicted 1-mmol/L [38.7-mg/dL] reduction in LDL-C of 0.61 [95% CI, 0.42-0.88]; $P$ = .008) and directly associated with type 2 diabetes (OR for a genetically predicted 1-mmol/L reduction in LDL-C of 2.42 [95% CI, 1.70-3.43]; $P$ < .001). For $\textit{PCSK9}$ genetic variants, the OR for type 2 diabetes per 1-mmol/L genetically predicted reduction in LDL-C was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.02-1.38; $P$ = .03). For a given reduction in LDL-C, genetic variants were associated with a similar reduction in coronary artery disease risk ($I^2$ = 0% for heterogeneity in genetic associations; $P$ = .93). However, associations with type 2 diabetes were heterogeneous ($I^2$ = 77.2%; $P$ = .002), indicating gene-specific associations with metabolic risk of LDL-C-lowering alleles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this meta-analysis, exposure to LDL-C-lowering genetic variants in or near $\textit{NPC1L1}$ and other genes was associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes. These data provide insights into potential adverse effects of LDL-C-lowering therapy.

Fruit and vegetable intake (FVI) may reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the epidemiological evidence is inconclusive. The aim of this study is to examine the prospective association of FVI with T2D and conduct an updated meta-analysis. In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-InterAct (EPIC-InterAct) prospective case-cohort study nested within eight European countries, a representative sample of 16 154 participants and 12 403 incident cases of T2D were identified from 340 234 individuals with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. For the meta-analysis we identified prospective studies on FVI and T2D risk by systematic searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE until April 2011. In EPIC-InterAct, estimated FVI by dietary questionnaires varied more than twofold between countries. In adjusted analyses the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) comparing the highest with lowest quartile of reported intake was 0.90 (0.80-1.01) for FVI; 0.89 (0.76-1.04) for fruit and 0.94 (0.84-1.05) for vegetables. Among FV subtypes, only root vegetables were inversely associated with diabetes 0.87 (0.77-0.99). In meta-analysis using pooled data from five studies including EPIC-InterAct, comparing the highest with lowest category for FVI was associated with a lower relative risk of diabetes (0.93 (0.87-1.00)). Fruit or vegetables separately were not associated with diabetes. Among FV subtypes, only green leafy vegetable (GLV) intake (relative risk: 0.84 (0.74-0.94)) was inversely associated with diabetes. Subtypes of vegetables, such as root vegetables or GLVs may be beneficial for the prevention of diabetes, while total FVI may exert a weaker overall effect.European Journal of Clinical Nutrition advance online publication, 1 August 2012; doi:10.1038/ejcn.2012.85.

Background: Olive oil consumption is associated with a decreased risk of several chronic diseases, in particular cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, data on the effects of olive oil on overall mortality are scarce. Objective: We evaluated the association between olive oil and overall and cause-specific mortality in the Spanish population in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Spain). Design: A total of 40,622 participants (62% female) aged 29‐69 y were recruited from 5 Spanish regions in 1992‐1996. The association between olive oil (analyzed as a categorical and continuous variable) and overall and cause-specific mortality (CVD, cancer, and other causes) was analyzed by using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for potential confounders. Results: A total of 1915 deaths were reported during 13.4 y of follow-up; 416 CVD deaths, 956 cancer deaths, and 417 deaths from other causes (for 126 deaths the cause was not available). In comparison with nonconsumers, the highest quartile of olive oil consumption was associated with a 26% (95% CI: 13%, 36%) reduction in risk of overall mortality and a 44% (95% CI: 21%, 60%) reduction in CVD mortality. For each increase in olive oil of 10 g 2000 kcal 21 d 21 , there was a 7% (95% CI: 3%, 10%) decreased risk of overall mortality and a 13% (95% CI: 6%, 20%) decreased risk of CVD mortality. No significant association was observed between olive oil and cancer mortality. Conclusions: Olive oil was associated with a decreased risk of overall mortality and an important reduction in CVD mortality in this large Mediterranean cohort. This provides further evidence on the beneficial effects of one of the key Mediterranean dietary components. Am J Clin Nutr doi: 10.3945/ajcn.111.024216.

Social position has yet to be established as a risk factor of coronary heart disease (CHD). Our aim was to investigate an individual life-course social position gradient link with CHD incidence in the EPIC-Spain cohort.41,066 participants, mostly 30-65 years old, and free of cardiovascular disease at baseline (1992-1996) were followed up for a mean of 10.4 years. A combined score of paternal occupation in childhood and own adult education was used to assess individual life-course risk accumulation. Hazard ratios of CHD were estimated using Cox models, stratifying by centre, and age, and adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors.583 participants (80 % men) developed a definite CHD event. Paternal occupational class IV was associated with CHD in all models in men. The educational gradient remained significant after adjusting for diet and physical activity (p = 0.01). All adjusted risk of incident CHD rose by 23 % (95 % CI 6-42 %) per category increase of life-course social position score in men. No significant associations were found in women.Individual life-course social position gradient was adversely related to incident CHD in Spanish men.

Risk models for lung cancer incidence would be useful for prioritizing individuals for screening and participation in clinical trials of chemoprevention. We present a risk model for lung cancer built using prospective cohort data from a general population which predicts individual incidence in a given time period. We build separate risk models for current and former smokers using 169,035 ever smokers from the multicenter European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and considered a model for never smokers. The data set was split into independent training and test sets. Lung cancer incidence was modeled using survival analysis, stratifying by age started smoking, and for former smokers, also smoking duration. Other risk factors considered were smoking intensity, 10 occupational/environmental exposures previously implicated with lung cancer, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms at two loci identified by genome-wide association studies of lung cancer. Individual risk in the test set was measured by the predicted probability of lung cancer incidence in the year preceding last follow-up time, predictive accuracy was measured by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). Using smoking information alone gave good predictive accuracy: the AUC and 95% confidence interval in ever smokers was 0.843 (0.810–0.875), the Bach model applied to the same data gave an AUC of 0.775 (0.737–0.813). Other risk factors had negligible effect on the AUC, including never smokers for whom prediction was poor. Our model is generalizable and straightforward to implement. Its accuracy can be attributed to its modeling of lifetime exposure to smoking. Cancer Prev Res; 5(6); 834–46. ©2012 AACR.

Beulens JWJ, van der Schouw YT, Bergmann MM, Rohrmann S, B Schulze M, Buijsse B, Grobbee DE, Arriola L, Cauchi S, Tormo M-J, Allen NE, van der A DL, Balkau B, Boeing H, Clavel-Chapelon F, de Lauzon-Guillan B, Franks P, Froguel P, Gonzales C, Halkjaer J, Huerta JM, Kaaks R, Key TJ, Khaw KT, Krogh V, Molina-Montes E, Nilsson P, Overvad K, Palli D, Panico S, Ramon Quiros J, Ronaldsson O, Romieu I, Romaguera D, Sacerdote C, Sanchez M-J, Spijkerman AMW, Teucher B, Tjonneland A, Tumino R, Sharp S, Forouhi NG, Langenberg C, Feskens EJM, Riboli E, Wareham NJ (University Medical Center Utrecht, The Netherlands; German Institute of Human Nutrition, Potsdam-Rehbrucke, Germany; German Cancer Research Centre, Heidelberg, Germany; Basque Government, San Sebastian, CIBERESP, Spain; Institut de Biologie de Lille, Lille, France; Murcia Regional Health Council, Murcia, Spain; CIBER Epidemiologia y Salud Publica (CIBERESP), Spain; University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands; Inserm, CESP Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health, Villejuif Cedex, France; Lund University, Malmo, Sweden; Imperial College, London, UK; Department of Epidemiology, Barcelona, Spain; Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark; University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori Milan, Milan, Italy; Andalusian School of Public Health, Granada, Spain; School of Public Health, Aarhus, Denmark; Cancer Research and Prevention Institute (ISPO), Florence, Italy; Universita Federico II, Napoli, Italy; Consejeria de Salud y Servicios Sanitarios, Oviedo-Asturias, Spain; Umea University, Umea, Sweden; International Agency for Research of Cancer, Lyon, France; Center for Cancer Prevention (CPO-Piemonte), Torino, Italy; Civile - M.P. Arezzo Hospital, Ragusa, Italy; Addenbrookes Hospital, Cambridge, UK; and Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands). Alcohol consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes in European men and women: influence of beverage type and body size. The EPICInterAct study. J Intern Med 2012; 272: 358370. Objective: To investigate the association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes, and determine whether this is modified by sex, body mass index (BMI) and beverage type. Design: Multicentre prospective casecohort study. Setting: Eight countries from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Subjects: A representative baseline sample of 16 154 participants and 12 403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes. Interventions: Alcohol consumption assessed using validated dietary questionnaires. Main outcome measures: Occurrence of type 2 diabetes based on multiple sources (mainly self-reports), verified against medical information. Results: Amongst men, moderate alcohol consumption was nonsignificantly associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.781.05) for 6.112.0 versus 0.16.0 g day-1, adjusted for dietary and diabetes risk factors. However, the lowest risk was observed at higher intakes of 24.196.0 g day-1 with an HR of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.750.98). Amongst women, moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.720.92) for 6.112.0 g day-1 (P interaction gender

BACKGROUND Maternal pregestational diabetes is a well-known risk factor for congenital anomalies. This study analyses the spectrum of congenital anomalies associated with maternal diabetes using data from a large European database for the population-based surveillance of congenital anomalies. METHODS: Data from 18 population-based EUROCAT registries of congenital anomalies in 1990-2005. All malformed cases occurring to mothers with pregestational diabetes (diabetes cases) were compared to all malformed cases in the same registry areas to mothers without diabetes (non-diabetes cases). RESULTS: There were 669 diabetes cases and 92,976 non diabetes cases. Odds ratios in diabetes pregnancies relative to non-diabetes pregnancies comparing each EUROCAT subgroup to all other non-chromosomal anomalies combined showed significantly increased odds ratios for neural tube defects (anencephaly and encephalocele, but not spina bifida) and several subgroups of congenital heart defects. Other subgroups with significantly increased odds ratios were anotia, omphalocele and bilateral renal agenesis. Frequency of hip dislocation was significantly lower among diabetes (odds ratio 0.15, 95% CI 0.05-0.39) than non-diabetes cases. Multiple congenital anomalies were present in 13.6 % of diabetes cases and 6.1 % of non-diabetes cases. The odds ratio for caudal regression sequence was very high (26.40, 95% CI 8.98-77.64), but only 17% of all caudal regression cases resulted from a pregnancy with pregestational diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The increased risk of congenital anomalies in pregnancies with pregestational diabetes is related to specific non-chromosomal congenital anomalies and multiple congenital anomalies and not a general increased risk. Birth Defects Research (Part A) 94:134-140, 2012. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

OBJECTIVE Meat intake has been consistently shown to be positively associated with incident type 2 diabetes. Part of that association may be mediated by body iron status, which is influenced by genetic factors. We aimed to test for interactions of genetic and dietary factors influencing body iron status in relation to the risk of incident type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The case-cohort comprised 9,347 case subjects and 12,301 subcohort participants from eight European countries. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected from genome-wide association studies on iron status biomarkers and candidate gene studies. A ferritin-related gene score was constructed. Multiplicative and additive interactions of heme iron and SNPs as well as the gene score were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS Higher heme iron intake (per 1 SD) was associated with higher ferritin levels (β = 0.113 [95% CI 0.082; 0.144]), but not with transferrin (−0.019 [−0.043; 0.006]) or transferrin saturation (0.016 [−0.006; 0.037]). Five SNPs located in four genes (rs1799945 [HFE H63D], rs1800562 [HFE C282Y], rs236918 [PCK7], rs744653 [SLC40A1], and rs855791 [TMPRSS6 V736A]) were associated with ferritin. We did not detect an interaction of heme iron and the gene score on the risk of diabetes in the overall study population (Padd = 0.16, Pmult = 0.21) but did detect a trend toward a negative interaction in men (Padd = 0.04, Pmult = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS We found no convincing evidence that the interplay of dietary and genetic factors related to body iron status associates with type 2 diabetes risk above the level expected from the sum or product of the two individual exposures.

The association between alcohol consumption and coronary heart disease (CHD) has been widely studied. Most of these studies have concluded that moderate alcohol intake reduces the risk of CHD. There are numerous discussions regarding whether this association is causal or biased. The objective of this paper is to analyse the association between alcohol intake and CHD risk in the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC).Participants from the EPIC Spanish cohort were included (15 630 men and 25 808 women). The median follow-up period was 10 years. Ethanol intake was calculated using a validated dietary history questionnaire. Participants with a definite CHD event were considered cases. A Cox regression model adjusted for relevant co-variables and stratified by age was produced. Separate models were carried out for men and women.The crude CHD incidence rate was 300.6/100 000 person-years for men and 47.9/100 000 person-years for women. Moderate, high and very high consumption was associated with a reduced risk of CHD in men: hazard ratio 0.90 (95% CI 0.56 to 1.44) for former drinkers, 0.65 (95% CI 0.41 to 1.04) for low, 0.49 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.76) for moderate, 0.46 (95% CI 0.30 to 0.71) for high and 0.50 (95% CI 0.29 to 0.85) for very high consumers. A negative association was found in women, with p values above 0.05 in all categories.Alcohol intake in men aged 29-69 years was associated with a more than 30% lower CHD incidence. This study is based on a large prospective cohort study and is free of the abstainer error.

We aimed to investigate the causal effect of circulating uric acid concentrations on type 2 diabetes risk. A Mendelian randomization study was performed using a genetic score with 24 uric acid–associated loci. We used data of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, comprising 24,265 individuals of European ancestry from eight European countries. During a mean (SD) follow-up of 10 (4) years, 10,576 verified incident case subjects with type 2 diabetes were ascertained. Higher uric acid was associated with a higher diabetes risk after adjustment for confounders, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.20 (95% CI 1.11, 1.30) per 59.48 µmol/L (1 mg/dL) uric acid. The genetic score raised uric acid by 17 µmol/L (95% CI 15, 18) per SD increase and explained 4% of uric acid variation. By using the genetic score to estimate the unconfounded effect, we found that a 59.48 µmol/L higher uric acid concentration did not have a causal effect on diabetes (HR 1.01 [95% CI 0.87, 1.16]). Including data from the Diabetes Genetics Replication And Meta-analysis (DIAGRAM) consortium, increasing our dataset to 41,508 case subjects with diabetes, the summary odds ratio estimate was 0.99 (95% CI 0.92, 1.06). In conclusion, our study does not support a causal effect of circulating uric acid on diabetes risk. Uric acid–lowering therapies may therefore not be beneficial in reducing diabetes risk.

Evidence of an association between early pregnancy exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) and congenital heart defects (CHD) has contributed to recommendations to weigh benefits and risks carefully. The objective of this study was to determine the specificity of association between first trimester exposure to SSRIs and specific CHD and other congenital anomalies (CA) associated with SSRI exposure in the literature (signals). A population-based case-malformed control study was conducted in 12 EUROCAT CA registries covering 2.1 million births 1995-2009 including livebirths, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. Babies/fetuses with specific CHD (n = 12,876) and non-CHD signal CA (n = 13,024), were compared with malformed controls whose diagnosed CA have not been associated with SSRI in the literature (n = 17,083). SSRI exposure in first trimester pregnancy was associated with CHD overall (OR adjusted for registry 1.41, 95 % CI 1.07-1.86, fluoxetine adjOR 1.43 95 % CI 0.85-2.40, paroxetine adjOR 1.53, 95 % CI 0.91-2.58) and with severe CHD (adjOR 1.56, 95 % CI 1.02-2.39), particularly Tetralogy of Fallot (adjOR 3.16, 95 % CI 1.52-6.58) and Ebstein's anomaly (adjOR 8.23, 95 % CI 2.92-23.16). Significant associations with SSRI exposure were also found for ano-rectal atresia/stenosis (adjOR 2.46, 95 % CI 1.06-5.68), gastroschisis (adjOR 2.42, 95 % CI 1.10-5.29), renal dysplasia (adjOR 3.01, 95 % CI 1.61-5.61), and clubfoot (adjOR 2.41, 95 % CI 1.59-3.65). These data support a teratogenic effect of SSRIs specific to certain anomalies, but cannot exclude confounding by indication or associated factors.

BACKGROUND: Substitution of carbohydrates with fat in a diet for type 2 diabetes patients is still debated.OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the association between dietary carbohydrate intake and isocaloric substitution with (i) total fat, (ii) saturated fatty acids (SFA), (iii) mono-unsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) and (iv) poly-unsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) with all-cause and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality risk and 5-year weight change in patients with type 2 diabetes.METHODS: The study included 6192 patients with type 2 diabetes from 15 cohorts of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Dietary intake was assessed at recruitment with country-specific food-frequency questionnaires. Cox and linear regression were used to estimate the associations with (CVD) mortality and weight change, adjusting for confounders and using different methods to adjust for energy intake.RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 9.2 y ± SD 2.3 y, 791 (13%) participants had died, of which 268 (4%) due to CVD. Substituting 10 g or 5 energy% of carbohydrates by total fat was associated with a higher all-cause mortality risk (HR 1.07 [1.02-1.13]), or SFAs (HR 1.25 [1.11-1.40]) and a lower risk when replaced by MUFAs (HR 0.89 [0.77-1.02]). When carbohydrates were substituted with SFAs (HR 1.22 [1.00-1.49]) or PUFAs (HR 1.29 [1.02-1.63]) CVD mortality risk increased. The 5-year weight was lower when carbohydrates were substituted with total fat or MUFAs. These results were consistent over different energy adjustment methods.CONCLUSIONS: In diabetes patients, substitution of carbohydrates with SFAs was associated with a higher (CVD) mortality risk and substitution by total fat was associated with a higher all-cause mortality risk. Substitution of carbohydrates with MUFAs may be associated with lower mortality risk and weight reduction. Instead of promoting replacement of carbohydrates by total fat, dietary guideline should continue focusing on replacement by fat-subtypes; especially SFAs by MUFAs.

BACKGROUND: Results from several cohort and case-control studies suggest a protective association between current alcohol intake and risk of thyroid carcinoma, but the epidemiological evidence is not completely consistent and several questions remain unanswered.METHODS: The association between alcohol consumption at recruitment and over the lifetime and risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma was examined in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Among 477 263 eligible participants (70% women), 556 (90% women) were diagnosed with differentiated thyroid carcinoma over a mean follow-up of 11 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.RESULTS: Compared with participants consuming 0.1-4.9 g of alcohol per day at recruitment, participants consuming 15 or more grams (approximately 1-1.5 drinks) had a 23% lower risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (HR=0.77; 95% CI=0.60-0.98). These findings did not differ greatly when analyses were conducted for lifetime alcohol consumption, although the risk estimates were attenuated and not statistically significant anymore. Similar results were observed by type of alcoholic beverage, by differentiated thyroid carcinoma histology or according to age, sex, smoking status, body mass index and diabetes.CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides some support to the hypothesis that moderate alcohol consumption may be associated with a lower risk of papillary and follicular thyroid carcinomas.British Journal of Cancer advance online publication, 27 August 2015; doi:10.1038/bjc.2015.280 www.bjcancer.com.

STUDY QUESTION: Do women who have diabetes before menopause have their menopause at an earlier age compared with women without diabetes?SUMMARY ANSWER: Although there was no overall association between diabetes and age at menopause, our study suggests that early-onset diabetes may accelerate menopause.WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Today, more women of childbearing age are being diagnosed with diabetes, but little is known about the impact of diabetes on reproductive health.STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We investigated the impact of diabetes on age at natural menopause (ANM) in 258 898 women from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), enrolled between 1992 and 2000.PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Determinant and outcome information was obtained through questionnaires. Time-dependent Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the associations of diabetes and age at diabetes diagnosis with ANM, stratified by center and adjusted for age, smoking, reproductive and diabetes risk factors and with age from birth to menopause or censoring as the underlying time scale.MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Overall, no association between diabetes and ANM was found (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89-1.01). However, women with diabetes before the age of 20 years had an earlier menopause (10-20 years: HR = 1.43; 95% CI 1.02-2.01, LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Strengths of the study include the large sample size and the broad set of potential confounders measured. However, results may have been underestimated due to survival bias. We cannot be sure about the sequence of the events in women with a late age at diabetes, as both events then occur in a short period. We could not distinguish between type 1 and type 2 diabetes.WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Based on the literature, an accelerating effect of early-onset diabetes on ANM might be plausible. A delaying effect of late-onset diabetes on ANM has not been reported before, and is not in agreement with recent studies suggesting the opposite association.STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMMF) (Germany); Ministry of Health and Social Solidarity, Stavros Niarchos Foundation and Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece); Italian Association for Research on Cancer (AIRC) and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); ERC-2009-AdG 232997 and Nordforsk, Nordic Centre of Excellence programme on Food, Nutrition and Health (Norway); Health Research Fund (FIS), Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia (no. 6236) and Navarra, ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Scientific Council and Regional Government of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, Department of Health, Food Standards Agency, and Wellcome Trust (UK). None of the authors reported a conflict of interest.

Contains fulltext : 51396.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access) Vitamin C is an antioxidant and inhibitor of carcinogenic N-nitroso compound production in the stomach. Higher dietary vitamin C consumption is associated with decreased risk of gastric cancer (GC) in numerous case-control studies, but data from prospective studies are limited, particularly so for blood measures of vitamin C. The objective of this study was to determine the association of plasma and dietary vitamin C levels with the risk of GC in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), a large cohort involving 10 European countries. Using a fluorometric method, vitamin C was measured in pre-diagnostic plasma from 215 GC cases (matched controls = 416). Conditional logistic regression models adjusted by body mass index, total energy intake, smoking status/duration/intensity and Helicobacter pylori infection status were used to estimate relative cancer risks. No association with GC risk was observed for dietary vitamin C, whereas an inverse GC risk was observed in the highest versus lowest quartile of plasma vitamin C [odds ratio (OR) = 0.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.31-0.97, P(trend) = 0.043], which was maintained after exclusion of cases with

BACKGROUND: Holt-Oram syndrome (HOS) is an autosomal dominant disorder characterised by upper limb anomalies and congenital heart defects. We present epidemiological and clinical aspects of HOS patients using data from EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) registries.METHODS: The study was based on data collected during 1990-2011 by 34 registries. The registries are population-based and use multiple sources of information to collect data on all types of birth using standardized definitions, methodology and coding. Diagnostic criteria for inclusion in the study were the presence of radial ray abnormalities and congenital heart disease (CHD), or the presence of either radial ray anomaly or CHD, with family history of HOS.RESULTS: A total of 73 cases of HOS were identified, including 11 (15.1%) TOPFA and 62 (84.9%) LB. Out of 73 HOS cases, 30.8% (20/65) were suspected prenatally, 55.4% (36/65) at birth, 10.7% (7/65) in the first week of life, and 3.1% (2/65) in the first year of life. The prenatal detection rate was 39.2% (20/51), with no significant change over the study period. In 55% (11/20) of prenatally detected cases, parents decided to terminate pregnancy. Thumb anomalies were reported in all cases. Agenesis/hypoplasia of radius was present in 49.2% (30/61), ulnar aplasia/hypoplasia in 24.6% (15/61) and humerus hypoplasia/phocomelia in 42.6% (26/61) of patients. Congenital heart defects (CHD) were recorded in 78.7% (48/61) of patients. Isolated septal defects were present in 54.2 (26/48), while 25% (12/48) of patients had complex/severe CHD. The mean prevalence of HOS diagnosed prenatally or in the early years of life in European registries was 0.7 per 100,000 births or 1:135,615 births.CONCLUSIONS: HOS is a rare genetic condition showing regional variation in its prevalence. It is often missed prenatally, in spite of the existence of major structural anomalies. When discovered, parents in 45% (9/20) of cases opt for the continuation of pregnancy. Although a quarter of patients have severe CHD, the overall first week survival is very good, which is important information for counselling purposes.