Will you be needed as a teacher in the year 2000? Should your school board buy land now for future expansion, or should it sell land already held? Would it be a good idea for an investor to put money into child-related industries for a maximum re turn twenty years from now? Answers to such questions depend at least partly on how many children will be around in the year 2000. Will your retirement fund be solvent when you retire? Will our nation's social security system be broke by the time you are eligible for benefits? What kinds of pro grams should churches and social agencies gear toward for maximum impact twenty years from now? Will we have enough space for people to live comfortably in the year 2000? What will we eat? How will we heat our homes and run our factories? To begin to answer any of these questions, fairly good estimates of the population lev els for the remainder of the century are needed by educators, urban planners, ecol ogists, scientists, and others. Population growth trends can be ana lyzed mathematically and future popu lation levels projected. Good projections on future population levels in the United States can be obtained using secondary school mathematics; thus population mod eling can be handled by secondary school students. In this article we will discuss the major factors affecting population change. A model will be developed that will allow us to start with the 1970 population figures, broken down by sex and age, and make projections at five-year intervals from 1975 to 2000. The principal sources of data are the Statistical Abstract of the United States and the Vital Statistics of the United States, both of which are published by the federal government and are available in most li braries. Much of the data can also be found in popular almanacs. Various factors influence population growth. The number of people immigrating into the United States increases the popu lation, as does the number of babies born. The number of people leaving the country and the number of individuals dying de crease the population. The roles of these factors may vary from year to year. The food supply and birth control programs may change the birth and survival rates over a span of time. Government regula tions may alter immigration laws. New dis coveries in medicine and nutrition may al ter life expectancy, and natural disasters and epidemics will change the death rate. Catastrophes, such as earthquakes, epi demics, and wars will influence population levels, but since there is no good way to predict catastrophes, most models ignore them in making projections. The major components of population change are birth, death, immigration, and emigration. We shall give a brief ex