Search

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases. © 2021 The Author(s)

Metamotivation research suggests that people may be able to modulate their motivational states strategically to secure desired outcomes (Scholer & Miele, 2016). To regulate one's motivational states effectively, one must at minimum understand (a) which states are more or less beneficial for a given task and (b) how to instantiate these states. In the current article, we examine to what extent people understand the self-regulatory benefits of high-level versus low-level construal (i.e., motivational orientations toward abstract and essential vs. concrete and idiosyncratic features). Seven experiments revealed that participants can distinguish tasks that entail high-level versus low-level construal. Further, participants recognized the usefulness of preparatory exercises with which to instantiate high-level versus low-level construal for task performance, and this knowledge predicted behavioral choices. This research highlights novel insights that the metamotivational approach offers to research on construal level theory and, more broadly, to the study of self-regulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Negotiation is a component deeply ingrained in our daily lives, and it can be challenging for a person to predict the respondent's reaction (acceptance or rejection) to a negotiation offer. In this work, we focus on finding acoustic and visual behavioral cues that are predictive of the respondent's immediate reactions using a face-to-face negotiation dataset, which consists of 42 dyadic interactions in a simulated negotiation setting. We show our results of exploring four different sources of information, namely nonverbal behavior of the proposer, that of the respondent, mutual behavior between the interactants related to behavioral symmetry and asymmetry, and past negotiation history between the interactants. Firstly, we show that considering other sources of information (other than the nonverbal behavior of the respondent) can also have comparable performance in predicting respondent reactions. Secondly, we show that automatically extracted mutual behavioral cues of symmetry and asymmetry are predictive partially due to their capturing information of the nature of the interaction itself, whether it is cooperative or competitive. Lastly, we identify audio-visual behavioral cues that are most predictive of the respondent's immediate reactions.

Research indicates that inducing high-level construal (processing that highlights invariant, essential features) relative to low-level construal (processing that highlights idiosyncratic, peripheral features) promotes self-control (Fujita & Carnevale, 2012). In the present work, we investigate to what extent people recognize the self-control benefits of high-level construal, and explore the consequences of this knowledge. Studies 1 and 2 provide initial evidence that individuals are aware that high-level relative to low-level construal promotes self-control in the dieting domain. Studies 3 and 4 find that individual differences in this knowledge predict self-control success outcomes (i.e., body mass index) among those who are motivated by dieting goals. Examining academics as a domain of self-control, Study 5 demonstrates that those with higher knowledge of construal level's impact on self-control earned higher end-of-semester grades to the extent that they were motivated to do well academically. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record

Los bosques Chaqueños poseen alta heterogeneidad estructural y florística debido a sus condiciones edáficas, sus regímenes de incendio y la intensa explotación forestal a que han sido sometidos. Los artrópodos pueden ser buenos indicadores de la heterogeneidad del hábitat, de la diversidad del ecosistema y del estado de estrés al que está sometido el ambiente. Se realizó una descripción taxonómica y funcional de los ensambles de artrópodos epigeos de la superficie del suelo en un bosque de quebracho. Los muestreos se realizaron en áreas elevadas con bromeliáceas (EB) y en áreas planas con gramíneas (PS). Se usaron trampas pitfall, que capturaron artrópodos durante cinco días consecutivos en tres estaciones del año (primavera, verano e invierno). En primavera se evaluaron distintas características físico-químicas del suelo y el mantillo. Se capturaron 1668 individuos de 78 morfoespecies; las hormigas fueron el taxón más abundante y Coleoptera el de mayor riqueza específica. Las arañas Lycosidae fueron las más abundantes y los Carabidae y Scarabaeidae presentaron mayor riqueza y abundancia entre los Coleoptera. La composición específica, la estructura trófica de los artrópodos epigeos y los grupos funcionales de hormigas difirieron entre estaciones y entre micrositios. El mayor contenido de cenizas y conductividad en los micrositios EB se atribuye al aporte de la hojarasca de arbustos, rica en calcio, magnesio y potasio. Las condiciones físico-químicas de la interfase mantillo-suelo podrían modificar la presencia o la abundancia de algunas especies detritívoras en los diferentes micrositios acelerando los procesos de descomposición de la hojarasca.

When making decisions, people sometimes deviate from normative standards. While such deviations may appear to be alarmingly common, examining individual differences may reveal a more nuanced picture. Specifically, the personality factor of need for cognition (i.e., the extent to which people engage in and enjoy effortful cognitive activities; Cacioppo & Petty, 1982) may moderate decision makers’ susceptibility to bias, as could personality factors associated with being a leader. As part of a large-scale assessment of high-level leaders, participants completed a battery of decision-making competence and personality scales. Leaders who scored higher on need for cognition performed better on two of four components of a decision-making competence measure: framing and honoring sunk costs. In addition, the leader sample performed better than published controls. Thus, both individual differences in need for cognition and leadership experience moderate susceptibility to decision biases. Implications for broader theories of individual differences and bias are discussed.

Building on symbolic self-completion theory, we conceptualize group identity as a goal toward which group members strive, using material symbols of that identity. We report four studies showing that the value placed on such material symbols (e.g., a building) depends on commitment to group identity, the extent to which a symbol can be used to represent in-group identity, and situational variability in goal strength induced through group-identity affirmation or threat. Our results suggest that property derives value from its capacity to serve as an effective means in the pursuit of group-identity goals. Implications for inter-group conflict are discussed.

Aspidosperma quebracho-blanco (white quebracho) and Schinopsis balansae (red quebracho) are distinctive trees of the South American Park in Argentina. Quebrachos are found in forests that have been exploited very intensively. The object of this work was the identification of biotic and abiotic factors specially fungal pathogen that affect the quality of both species and its relation with germination. Seeds where evaluated through germination test and the percentage of the incidence of fungal agents in two different years of harvest was determined. In S. balansae the germination rate was 77% and of 27% in 2000 and 2001 harvests, respectively. Associations fungi-germination were found in 2001 for Alternaria spp., Curvularia spp., and Fusarium spp., showing an coefficient of correlation = -0.84; -0.85 and -0.73 (p < 0.00004), respectively. A high percentage of vane seeds (55%) was also found in 2001 harvest, due to adverse environmental factors, specifically higher precipitations during flowering. In A. quebracho-blanco seeds, the germination rate was 50% and 90% in 2000 and 2003 respectively, with a 42% of immature seeds in 2000 harvest that was associated to high precipitations and high temperatures during flowering and ripping of fruits. The incidence of pathogens was low and did not have association to germination.

Objective To determine the decay rate of Uniform Record Locators (URLs) in the reference section of biomedical informatics journals. Methods URL references were collected from printed journal articles of the first and middle issues of 1999–2004 and electronically available in-press articles in January 2005. We limited this set to five biomedical informatics journals: Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, International Journal of Medical Informatics, Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association: JAMIA, Methods of Information in Medicine, and Journal of Biomedical Informatics. During a 1-month period, URL access attempts were performed eight times a day at regular intervals. Results Of the 19,108 references extracted from 606 printed and 86 in-press articles, 1112 (5.8%) references contained a URL. Of the 1049 unique URLs, 726 (69.2%) were alive, 230 (21.9%) were dead, and 93 (8.9%) were comatose. URLs from in-press articles included 212 URLs, of which 169 (79.7%) were alive, 21 (9.9%) were dead, and 22 (10.4%) were comatose. The average annual decay, or link rot, rate was 5.4%. Conclusion The URL decay rate in biomedical informatics journals is high. A commonly accepted strategy for the permanent archival of digital information referenced in scholarly publications is urgently needed.

Incorporating the fact that the senses are embodied is necessary for an organism to interpret sensory information. Before a unified perception of the world can be formed, sensory signals must be processed with reference to body representation. The various attributes of the body such as shape, proportion, posture, and movement can be both derived from the various sensory systems and can affect perception of the world (including the body itself). In this review we examine the relationships between sensory and motor information, body representations, and perceptions of the world and the body. We provide several examples of how the body affects perception (including but not limited to body perception). First we show that body orientation effects visual distance perception and object orientation. Also, visual-auditory crossmodal-correspondences depend on the orientation of the body: audio “high” frequencies correspond to a visual “up” defined by both gravity and body coordinates. Next, we show that perceived locations of touch is affected by the orientation of the head and eyes on the body, suggesting a visual component to coding body locations. Additionally, the reference-frame used for coding touch locations seems to depend on whether gaze is static or moved relative to the body during the tactile task. The perceived attributes of the body such as body size, affect tactile perception even at the level of detection thresholds and two-point discrimination. Next, long-range tactile masking provides clues to the posture of the body in a canonical body schema. Finally, ownership of seen body parts depends on the orientation and perspective of the body part in view. Together, all of these findings demonstrate how sensory and motor information, body representations, and perceptions (of the body and the world) are interdependent.

Across 3 experiments, the authors examined the effects of temporal distance on negotiation behavior. They found that greater temporal distance from negotiation decreased preference for piecemeal, single-issue consideration over integrative, multi-issue consideration (Experiment 1). They also found that greater temporal distance from an event being negotiated increased interest in conceding on the lowest priority issue and decreased interest in conceding on the highest priority issue (Experiment 2). Lastly, they found increased temporal distance from an event being negotiated produced a greater proportion of multi-issue offers, a greater likelihood of conceding on the lowest priority issue in exchange for a concession on the highest priority issue, and greater individual and joint outcomes (Experiment 3). Implications for conflict resolution and construal level theory are discussed.

Schinus fasciculata es un árbol de la ecorregión chaqueña argentina. Es una especie de bajo porte, usada como antiséptico, analgésico, antiinflamatorio y antifúngico. Estudios previos registraron baja germinación y deficiente sanidad. El objetivo fue evaluar la germinación y la respuesta de las plántulas in vitro en dos medios de cultivo. Se recolectaron frutos, se desinfectaron por 20 min con HClNa y se sembraron en agar-agua. Las plántulas se repicaron a medio MS en dos diluciones: un cuarto (MS ¼) y un medio (MS ½). Se hicieron ensayos de germinación y vigor (tiempo medio de germinación máxima en días). Se evaluó % de contaminación. A los 20 días del repique se evaluó % de explantos con hojas, número de hojas y altura de plántulas. Paralelamente se hizo un ensayo de germinación y vigor en arena. La contaminación fue de 16 %, la germinación de 84 %, el vigor de 4,9 días. El 94 y el 100 % de los explantos en MS ¼ y MS ½ presentaron hojas. El número promedio de hojas fue de 7,5 y 7,4 y la altura promedio fue de 3,35 cm y 2,98 cm en MS ¼ y MS ½, observándose diferencias significativas en altura. La germinación en arena fue de 46 % y el vigor de 4,6 días. La utilización de la técnica de cultivo in vitro en S. fasciculata facilita la multiplicación de esta especie de alto valor farmacológico, permitiendo aumentar el porcentaje de frutos germinados y obtener plántulas libres de patógenos todo el año. Schinus fasciculata is a tree of Argentina Chaco eco-region. It is a low-growing species, used as an antiseptic, analgesic, anti-inflammatory and antifungal. Previous studies reported low germination and poor health. The object of this work was to evaluate the germination and in vitro response of seedlings in two culture media. Fruits were collected, disinfected for 20 min with HClNa and sowing in agar – water. The seedlings were seeded onto MS medium in two dilutions: fourth (¼ MS) and half (½ MS). Germination and vigor tests (mean time to maximum germination in days) were made. Contamination percentage was evaluated. At 20 days of transplanted were evaluated: % of explants with leaves, leaf number and height of seedlings. Parallel assay germination and vigor in sand was made. Contamination was 16%, germination was 84% and vigor 4.9 days. The 94 % and the 100% of the explants in MS ¼ and ½ MS showed leaves. The average leaf number was 7.5 and 7.4 and the average height was 3.35 cm and 2.98 cm in MS ¼ and MS ½, with a significant difference in height. Germination in sand was 46 % and vigor was of 4.6 days. The technique of in vitro culture in S. fasciculata facilitates the multiplication of this species of high pharmacological value, allowing to increase the percentage of germination and obtain pathogen-free all year seedlings. Fil: Freire, Rodrigo Manuel. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Cs.agrarias. Departamento de Biología. Especialidad Ecología; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina Fil: Carnevale, Nélida Josefina. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Cs.agrarias. Departamento de Biología. Especialidad Ecología; Argentina Fil: Alzugaray, Claudia. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina Fil: Bueno, Mariam S.. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina

Objectives: To determine the prevalence and inaccessibility of Internet references in the bibliography of biomedical publications when first released in PubMed®. Methods: During a one-month observational study period (Feb 21 to Mar 21, 2006) the Internet citations from a 20% random sample of all forthcoming publications released in PubMed during the previous day were identified. Attempts to access the referenced Internet citations were completed within one day and inaccessible Internet citations were recorded. Results: The study included 4,699 publications from 844 different journals. Among the 141,845 references there were 840 (0.6%) Internet citations. One or more Internet references were cited in 403 (8.6%) articles. From the 840 Internet references, 11.9% were already inaccessible within two days after an article's release to the public. Conclusion: The prevalence of Internet citations in journals included in PubMed is small (

Objective The objective was to develop non-invasive predictive models for late-onset neonatal sepsis from off-the-shelf medical data and electronic medical records (EMR). Design The data used in this study are from 299 infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit in the Monroe Carell Jr. Children's Hospital at Vanderbilt and evaluated for late-onset sepsis. Gold standard diagnostic labels (sepsis negative, culture positive sepsis, culture negative/clinical sepsis) were assigned based on all the laboratory, clinical and microbiology data available in EMR. Only data that were available up to 12 h after phlebotomy for blood culture testing were used to build predictive models using machine learning (ML) algorithms. Measurement We compared sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of sepsis treatment of physicians with the predictions of models generated by ML algorithms. Results The treatment sensitivity of all the nine ML algorithms and specificity of eight out of the nine ML algorithms tested exceeded that of the physician when culture-negative sepsis was included. When culture-negative sepsis was excluded both sensitivity and specificity exceeded that of the physician for all the ML algorithms. The top three predictive variables were the hematocrit or packed cell volume, chorioamnionitis and respiratory rate. Conclusions Predictive models developed from off-the-shelf and EMR data using ML algorithms exceeded the treatment sensitivity and treatment specificity of clinicians. A prospective study is warranted to assess the clinical utility of the ML algorithms in improving the accuracy of antibiotic use in the management of neonatal sepsis.

Background Serial C-reactive protein (CRP) values may be useful for decision-making regarding duration of antibiotics in neonates. However, established standard of practice for its use in preterm very low birth weight (

Two resource dilemmas, the commons dilemma, in which individuals take from a common resource, and the public goods problem, in which individuals give to a common good, were experimentally compared. Although they provide equivalent outcomes, the two dilemmas involve different frames of reference and are not psychologically equivalent. We also examined sanction systems, which involve contributions by individuals in the dilemma to provide rewards and penalties for cooperation. The results of Experiment 1 supported the hypothesis that public goods problems ("give dilemmas") activate greater loss aversion and less cooperation than commons dilemmas ("take dilemmas"), and that this effect is moderated by sanction systems. No difference between dilemmas was obtained when either the reward or penalty sanction was present, indicating that sanctions cause a shift in frame of reference to the aspiration of obtaining the reward or avoiding the penalty. The penalty sanction and especially the reward sanction produced greater cooperation. Also, as expected, loss aversion heightened exploitation: when the others were cooperative, a give dilemma generated less cooperation than a take dilemma. In Experiment 2, we extended the concept of frame and loss aversion to the structure of sanction systems, finding that subjects were more likely to contribute to a "take sanction" than to a "give sanction." We discuss potential sources of reference points and loss aversion in resource dilemmas and the likely impact on cooperation.

This chapter reviews research and theory concerned with outcome frames in negotiation—the negotiator's conception of the dispute as involving gains (gain frame) or losses (loss frame). We argue that because losses are more aversive than equivalent gains are attractive, loss framed negotiators should display greater resistance to concession making and settle less easily than negotiators with a gain frame. A review of frame research supports this argument. Furthermore, we propose that during negotiations, disputants communicate about their frame, and tend to adopt the frame communicated by their opponent. Several experiments are reviewed that show this frame adoption effect to be likely especially when the negotiators themselves have a gain rather than a loss frame. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the importance of outcome frames to the escalation of social conflict.

Extending research and theory on negotiator frame-the conceptualization of outcomes as gains or as losses-this study assumes that (a) negotiators often have foreknowledge about their opponent's gain or loss frame, and (b) during negotiation, disputants often communicate about their own frame. We considered negotiator cognition and behavior as a function of own frame, foreknowledge about opponent's frame, opponent's communicated frame, and their interactions. As predicted, the opposing negotiator was perceived as more cooperative under other's loss than gain frame. Further, negotiators mismatched their opponent's concessions, in that they made smaller concessions when the adversary had a loss rather than gain frame. Results also supported the ''frame-adoption hypothesis'' that other's communicated gain frame leads to lower demands and larger concessions than other's communicated loss frame, especially when negotiators have a gain rather than loss frame themselves. As predicted, this frame-adoption effect was attenuated when other's communicated frame was incongruent rather than congruent with the information about other's frame. Together, these findings underscore the relevance of considering negotiator frames from an interpersonal perspective. (C) 1994 Academic Press, Inc.

This study tested the hypothesis that partisanship influences judgments of fairness and trustworthiness in the mediation of social conflict. Subjects evaluated third party proposals for resolving the conflict in Jerusalem. A2×2×4 factorial design examined (1) partisanship of the subject, either partisan (pro-Israeli) or nonpartisan (neutral); (2) content bias of third party proposals, where the substance of the proposal was either (a) pro-Israeli or (b) evenhanded; and (3) source bias, where the third party was labeled as being (a) pro-Israeli, (b) pro-Palestinian, (c) neutral, or (d) of unknown persuasion. Analyses of judgments of fairness and third party trustworthiness indicated differences between partisan and nonpartisan subjects in self-serving bias and underlying dynamics in judgments. Partisans used favorableness of the proposals to judge the trustworthiness of the third party, independent of evenhandedness of the proposal, whereas evenhandedness was the criterion for nonpartisans. Nonpartisans trusted the neutral third party and partisans trusted the pro-Israeli third party regardless of proposal fairness. Partisans showed a cushioning effect of third party characteristics: a pro-Israeli third party who made an evenhanded proposal (relatively unpalatable to the pro-Israeli subjects) was trusted more than a pro-Palestinian third party who made the same proposal. The results highlight practical problems in mediation where the third party may need the trust not only of the disputing parties but also the trust of nonpartisan others. Evenhanded third party behavior that may impress nonpartisans is likely to be seen as biased mediation by disputants.

This study examined the dispute-resolution behavior of the "intravenor," a distinct third-party role in organizational dispute resolution. Unlike a mediator, whose involvement in the dispute is at the whim of the disputants, the intravenor can control the outcome of the dispute. Unlike an arbitrator, who is compelled to dictate the outcome of the dispute, the intravenor may or may not impose an outcome. The experiment reported here examined the impact of four variables on third party behavior: The third party′s role (intravenor versus mediator), the third party′s beliefs about the disputants reaching agreement (cooperative versus uncooperative disputants), the third party′s self-interest in the outcome, and the third party′s concern about the disputants′ outcome (interest in the disputant′s mutual welfare). The results suggest that intravention spawns a distinctive pattern of third-party behavior: Intravenors imposed outcomes in 66% of the cases, but more when they viewed the disputants as uncooperative than cooperative. Only 44% of the imposed outcomes reflected the disputants′ underlying interests, but this was greater when the intravenor had high compared to low concern for the disputants′ aspirations. Intravenors were more likely than mediators to use forceful, pressure tactics, and were more confident and saw themselves as more influential. Taken together, the results provide the basis for an integrated model of third-party intervention in organizational dispute resolution.

Insulin resistance and hyperglycemia are common in acutely injured patients, and associated with poor outcomes. In the era of tight glucose control, measures of insulin responsiveness (IR) may provide a better indicator of patient status than does the serum glucose concentration. We hypothesized that measures of IR during tight glycemic control protocols are associated with infection and may be more predictive than the serum glucose concentration.All critically injured, mechanically ventilated patients undergo protocolized tight glycemic control with the aid of a computer-based system that calculates the insulin dose using an adapting multiplier (insulin dose = [blood glucose - 60) x M). Consecutive patients on protocol were studied to identify the incidence of positive sterile-site or quantitative bronchoalveolar lavage cultures (10(4) colony-forming units/mL). Patients were stratified by presence and number of positive cultures and analyzed by both serum glucose measures and measures of IR (average multiplier and average insulin infusion rate).During the six-month study period, 356 patients were placed on the tight glycemic control protocol. Of these, 101 patients had 192 positive cultures. Patients with positive cultures required significantly more hourly insulin than those without a positive culture (3.7 vs. 2.8 units/h; p = or0.001). Logistic regression showed the insulin dose (odds ratio 2.1; 95% confidence interval 1.6, 3.0; p =0.001) and the adapting multiplier to be independent predictors of the patient having a positive culture among other factors associated with nosocomial infection.Insulin resistance, quantified by hourly insulin dose and median multiplier, confers a higher risk of systemic nosocomial infection. Patients with positive cultures actually had lower admission and median blood glucose values over their intensive care unit stays, highlighting the decreased value of this measure as a predictor of outcome in the setting of tight glucose control. A greater insulin requirement suggesting resistance may be used as a marker of a higher risk of nosocomial infection.

Maytenus vitis-idaea es un arbusto de 2-5 m de altura. Se lo encuentra en el Chaco paraguayo-boliviano y norte y centro de Argentina. Además de su importancia ecológica, sus hojas fueron usadas por los indios paraguayos como sal y tienen aplicación medicinal. Con la finalidad de iniciar planes de mejoramiento biotecnológico de M. vitis-idaea, se planteó como objetivo de este trabajo estudiar la calidad fisiológica de las semillas cultivadas in vitro, ya que se trata de una especie poco conocida respecto a su germinación y tampoco se tiene información sobre su cultivo in vitro. Se realizó la prueba topográfica por tetrazolio y se cultivaron semillas in vitro en: agar-agua (AA) y en medio de cultivo con sales minerales y vitaminas de Murashige y Skoog (MS). Se registró: porcentaje de germinación, velocidad de germinación (VG) y tiempo medio para alcanzar la germinación máxima (TM) de las semillas. Se midió la longitud de las raíces y de los hipocótilos durante 44 días. La prueba de tetrazolio arrojó 100% de viabilidad. El porcentaje de germinación en AA a los 20 días (62%) fue significativamente superior que en MS (36%); a los 40 días, los valores de germinación fueron 92 y 100% para AA y MS, respectivamente. El cultivo in vitro de las semillas de M. vitis-idaea en medio sin sales minerales permite adelantar el proceso de germinación y favorece el vigor de las mismas.

This experiment examined the influence of mediators' interests and outcome recommendations on disputants' perceptions and behavior. A distinction (following Pruitt, 1983) was made between two types of mediator bias: general alignment and overt support. In the general alignment variable, participants dealt with a mediator who was aligned either: (a) with them - mediator outcomes were positively correlated with their own, or (b) against them - mediator outcomes were negatively correlated with their own. In the overt support variable, participants were confronted with a mediator who made outcome recommendations that were overtly favorable, even handed, or unfavorable. The results indicate that disputants mistrusted favorable recommendations from unfavorably aligned mediators; this “Trojan horse effect” also led to lower ratings of mediator acceptability. The results suggest that favorable mediator alignment may cushion the impact of overt, unfavorable recommendations from that mediator. Broader theoretical and organizational implications are discussed.

A survey is presented of the vegetation of the central region of the Santafesinian Chaco (Argentina), a scarcely populated flat area of 20 000 km2, with seasonal flooding. Soils have a strong halo-hydromorphic character and vegetation is basically halophilous. Trees are scarce and most communities are savannas, grasslands or swampy vegetation. Twenty-three communities are described, some of them with several variants. The most widespread communities areSpartina argentinensis grasslands,Elyonurus muticus savannas and a complex of hygrophilous communities. The most important communities are distributed in relation to a topographical gradient, and their structure is shaped by recurrent flooding and fire disturbance. Most of the area is virgin land with very little human interference. The phytogeographical position of the area is discussed.

Aspidosperma quebracho-blanco (white quebracho) and Schinopsis balansae (red quebracho) are distinctive trees of the South American Park in Argentina. Quebrachos are found in forests that have been exploited very intensively. The object of this work was the identification of biotic and abiotic factors specially fungal pathogen that affect the quality of both species and its relation with germination. Seeds where evaluated through germination test and the percentage of the incidence of fungal agents in two different years of harvest was determined. In S. balansae the germination rate was 77% and of 27% in 2000 and 2001 harvests, respectively. Associations fungi-germination were found in 2001 for Alternaria spp., Curvularia spp., and Fusarium spp., showing an coefficient of correlation = -0.84; -0.85 and -0.73 (p0.00004), respectively. A high percentage of vane seeds (55%) was also found in 2001 harvest, due to adverse environmental factors, specifically higher precipitations during flowering. In A. quebracho-blanco seeds, the germination rate was 50% and 90% in 2000 and 2003 respectively, with a 42% of immature seeds in 2000 harvest that was associated to high precipitations and high temperatures during flowering and ripping of fruits. The incidence of pathogens was low and did not have association to germination.

Amazonia and the Gran Chaco are the largest phytogeographic units of the Neotropical Region. The Forest Wedge of the Santa Fe province of Argentina is the southernmost part of the Eastern Chaco, and there are three main types of forest, 1) the mixed dense forests, 2) the Schinopsis balansae "quebrachal" and 3) the Prosopis nigra var. ragonesei forests, distributed along an environmental gradient correlated with topographic elevation. In this paper litterfall and organic matter decomposition of four species were studied in two different microsites in a Schinopsis balansae forest during three years. Litter fall varied along the year following seasonal environmental variation but litterfall variations between years were not significant. Litterfall was not uniform over the whole surface, under close canopy monthly average litterfall amounts 32.67 g/m2, in open gaps 4.47 g/m2 and 15.07 g/m2 under medium density canopy. Organic matter decomposition, like in other forests, was a negative exponential function of time, and the decomposition rate is independent from the microsites where it falls, 0.15 and 0.12 in sunny and shadow microsites respectively for Maytenus vitis-idaea, 0.10 and 0.11 in sunny and shadow microsites respectively for Achatocarpus praecox, 0.04 and 0.03 for Acacia praecox, 0.04 and 0.06 for Schinopsis balansae in sunny and shadow microsites respectively. Shurbs litter was decomposed faster than the tree litter, and the shurbs litter nutrientes level was also higher. Therefore the rate of organic matter decomposition is more correlated with leaf characteristics than with environmental variables.

Sixteen young, healthy males each performed five to seven randomly assigned, exhaustive exercise bouts on a cycle ergometer, with each bout on a separate day and at a different power, to compare estimates of critical power (PC) and anaerobic work capacity (W') among five different models: t = W'/(Pmax-PC) (two-parameter nonlinear); t = (W'/P-PC))-(W'/(Pmax-PC)) (three-parameter nonlinear); P.t = W' + (PC.t) (linear (P.t)); P = (W'/t) + PC (linear (P)); P = PC + (Pmax-PC)exp(-t/tau) (exponential). The data fit each of the models well (mean R2 = 0.96 through 1.00 for each model). However, significant differences among models were observed for both PC (mean +/- standard deviation (SD) for each model was 195 +/- 29 W through 242 +/- 21 W) and W' (18 +/- 5 kJ through 58 +/- 19 kJ). PC estimates among models were significantly correlated (r = 0.78 through 0.99). For W', between-model correlations ranged from 0.25 to 0.95. For a group of six subjects, the ventilatory threshold for long-term exercise (LTE Tvent; 189 +/- 34 W) was significantly lower than PC for all models except the three-parameter nonlinear (PC = 197 +/- 30 W); PC for each model was, however, positively correlated with LTE Tvent (r = 0.69 through 0.91).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

The perceived location of a touch shifts with eye or head position, suggesting touch is coded in a visual reference frame. Our lab has previously reported shifts in the direction of eccentricity, but Ho and Spence (2007, Brain Res. 1144: 136) reported head-related shifts in the opposite direction. These studies differed by body part touched (arm vs. torso), the nature of the touch (tap vs. vibration) and whether perceived touch location was recorded with head centered or eccentric. We performed a series of experiments applying vibration to the torso and measuring perceived location using a visual scale. We replicated Ho and Spence using trials blocked by head position and recording perceived position with the head displaced. A second experiment used randomized head displacements with the head centered before responding. In a control experiment head was centered during the touch and eccentric for response. Perceived touch location shifted in the direction opposite to head position under the blocked design, in the same direction as head position in the randomized design and not at all in the control. Results are discussed in terms of allocentric and egocentric coding mechanisms needed to complete each condition.

Seven males (age = 20.4 +/- 0.3 yr) each performed a total of eight exhaustive exercise bouts (four at 60 rpm and four at 100 rpm) in order to determine the influence of pedaling frequency on the parameters of the power-duration relationship for high-intensity cycle ergometry. The power-endurance time data for each subject at each rpm were fit by nonlinear regression to extract parameters of the hyperbolic: (P - theta PA). t = W', where P = power output, t = time to exhaustion, and theta PA and W' are constants. theta PA (the power asymptote, in watts (W] reflects an inherent characteristic of aerobic energy production during exercise, above which only a finite amount of work (W', in joules) can be performed, regardless of the rate at which the work is performed. theta PA at 60 rpm (235 +/- 8 W) was significantly (15.9 +/- 4.5%, P less than 0.05) greater than theta PA at 100 rpm (204 +/- 11 W), thus confirming our hypothesis that endurance would be compromised while cycling at the higher pedaling frequency. In contrast, W' was not significantly (P greater than 0.05) affected by cadence (16.8 +/- 1.7 kJ at 60 rpm vs 18.9 +/- 2.2 kJ at 100 rpm). Our data are consistent with the implications of previous investigations which demonstrated a greater cardiorespiratory and blood/muscle lactate response during constant-power exercise while cycling at high vs low rpm and indicate that the theoretical maximum sustainable power (i.e., theta PA) during cycle ergometry in untrained males is greater at 60 rpm than at 100 rpm.

Sixteen young, healthy males each performed five to seven randomly assigned, exhaustive exercise bouts on a cycle ergometer, with each bout on a separate day and at a different power, to compare estimates of critical power (PC) and anaerobic work capacity (W') among five different models: t = W'/(Pmax-PC) (two-parameter nonlinear); t = (W'/P-PC))-(W'/(Pmax-PC)) (three-parameter nonlinear); P.t = W' + (PC.t) (linear (P.t)); P = (W'/t) + PC (linear (P)); P = PC + (Pmax-PC)exp(-t/tau) (exponential). The data fit each of the models well (mean R2 = 0.96 through 1.00 for each model). However, significant differences among models were observed for both PC (mean +/- standard deviation (SD) for each model was 195 +/- 29 W through 242 +/- 21 W) and W' (18 +/- 5 kJ through 58 +/- 19 kJ). PC estimates among models were significantly correlated (r = 0.78 through 0.99). For W', between-model correlations ranged from 0.25 to 0.95. For a group of six subjects, the ventilatory threshold for long-term exercise (LTE Tvent; 189 +/- 34 W) was significantly lower than PC for all models except the three-parameter nonlinear (PC = 197 +/- 30 W); PC for each model was, however, positively correlated with LTE Tvent (r = 0.69 through 0.91).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Seven males (age = 20.4 +/- 0.3 yr) each performed a total of eight exhaustive exercise bouts (four at 60 rpm and four at 100 rpm) in order to determine the influence of pedaling frequency on the parameters of the power-duration relationship for high-intensity cycle ergometry. The power-endurance time data for each subject at each rpm were fit by nonlinear regression to extract parameters of the hyperbolic: (P - theta PA). t = W', where P = power output, t = time to exhaustion, and theta PA and W' are constants. theta PA (the power asymptote, in watts (W] reflects an inherent characteristic of aerobic energy production during exercise, above which only a finite amount of work (W', in joules) can be performed, regardless of the rate at which the work is performed. theta PA at 60 rpm (235 +/- 8 W) was significantly (15.9 +/- 4.5%, P less than 0.05) greater than theta PA at 100 rpm (204 +/- 11 W), thus confirming our hypothesis that endurance would be compromised while cycling at the higher pedaling frequency. In contrast, W' was not significantly (P greater than 0.05) affected by cadence (16.8 +/- 1.7 kJ at 60 rpm vs 18.9 +/- 2.2 kJ at 100 rpm). Our data are consistent with the implications of previous investigations which demonstrated a greater cardiorespiratory and blood/muscle lactate response during constant-power exercise while cycling at high vs low rpm and indicate that the theoretical maximum sustainable power (i.e., theta PA) during cycle ergometry in untrained males is greater at 60 rpm than at 100 rpm.

The present study investigated the influence of positive affect and visual access on the process and outcome of negotiation in an integrative bargaining task. Visual access was crossed with positive affect in a 2 × 2 design. The results supported the hypotheses that positive affect would reduce the use of contentious tactics and would increase joint benefit, just as had been found for the presence of a barrier that eliminated visual access to the other negotiator ( S. Lewis & W. Fry, 1977 , Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 20, 75–92). This latter finding was also replicated. Only when bargainers were face to face and not in a positive state was there heavy use of contentious tactics, reduced trade-offs, and fewer integrative solutions. This means that positive affect can overcome the competitive processes and poor outcomes normally observed in face-to-face integrative bargaining. The results are discussed in terms of the cognitive dynamics of negotiation.

A laboratory experiment examined the effects of time pressure on the process and outcome of integrative bargaining. Time pressure was operationalized in terms of the amount of time available to negotiate. As hypothesized, high time pressure produced nonagreements and poor negotiation outcomes only when negotiators adopted an individualistic orientation; when negotiators adopted a cooperative orientation, they achieved high outcomes regardless of time pressure. In combination with an individualistic orientation, time pressure produced greater competitiveness, firm negotiator aspirations, and reduced information exchange. In combination with a cooperative orientation, time pressure produced greater cooperativeness and lower negotiator aspirations. The main findings were seen as consistent with Pruitt's strategic-choice model of negotiation.

This paper is a survey of the vegetation of the southeastern departments in the Province of Santa Fe (Argentina). The vegetation was analyzed following Braun-Blanquet's approach modified by Mueller-Dombois & Ellenberg (1974). The most relevant species of the region were placed in 25 groups according to their requirements or general behaviour. Most of the communities are herbaceous, and apart from the woody and some other miscellaneous ones they were grouped into three ecologically and floristically defined sets. The first set, the Stipa grasslands and related communities, which are characterized by the more or less abundant presence of Stipa hyalina, Stipa neesiana and Stipa papposa, comprises five different communities. The second, the halophilous communities, comprises five communities, the two Spartina ssp. grasslands, the halophilous prairies of Distichlis spicata, the short sedge Scirpus americanus communities and the ‘pela-dales’. The third, the hygrophilous communities, comprises nine communities which are not so well defined as the ones in the other sets. Besides, two further communities have been included, the Paspalum quadrifarium and the Melica macra tall grasslands.

The joint effect on helping behavior of liking and dependence on anotherforfuture rewards was examined. It was hypothesized that future dependence produces more helping behavior between people who like one another than between people who dislike one another. This hypothesis was derived from the Pruitt and Kimmel (1977) goallexpectation theory, a theory developed to interpret certain findings about cooperation in the prisonet's dilemma game. The hypothesis was supported. For people who liked one another, future dependence led to more time spent helping and a greater amount of help than no future dependence. For people who disliked one another, helping was low regardless of the extent of future dependence. In addition, the amount of help given the other increased across trials only for those subjects who were dependent on the other for later help. The Pruitt and Kimmel theory explains the low level of helping in the conditions where the other was disliked as due to a lack of trust that the other would reciprocate.