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Abstract Background Despite advances in therapeutics for adverse‐risk acute myeloid leukaemia (AML), overall survival remains poor, especially in refractory disease. Comprehensive tumour profiling and pre‐clinical drug testing can identify effective personalised therapies. Case We describe a case of ETV6‐MECOM fusion‐positive refractory AML, where molecular analysis and in vitro high throughput drug screening identified a tolerable, novel targeted therapy and provided rationale for avoiding what could have been a toxic treatment regimen. Ruxolitinib combined with hydroxyurea led to disease control and enhanced quality‐of‐life in a patient unsuitable for intensified chemotherapy or allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Conclusion This case report demonstrates the feasibility and role of combination pre‐clinical high throughput screening to aid decision making in high‐risk leukaemia. It also demonstrates the role a JAK1/2 inhibitor can have in the palliative setting in select patients with AML.

This study quantifies differences among four widely used atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA5, JRA-55, MERRA-2, and CFSR) in their representation of the dynamical changes induced by springtime polar stratospheric ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere from 1980 to 2001. The intercomparison is undertaken as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere–troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The reanalyses are generally in good agreement in their representation of the strengthening of the lower stratospheric polar vortex during the austral spring–summer season, associated with reduced radiative heating due to ozone loss, as well as the descent of anomalously strong westerly winds into the troposphere during summer and the subsequent poleward displacement and intensification of the polar front jet. Differences in the trends in zonal wind between the reanalyses are generally small compared to the mean trends. The exception is CFSR, which exhibits greater disagreement compared to the other three reanalysis datasets, with stronger westerly winds in the lower stratosphere in spring and a larger poleward displacement of the tropospheric westerly jet in summer. The dynamical changes associated with the ozone hole are examined by investigating the momentum budget and then the eddy heat and momentum fluxes in terms of planetary- and synoptic-scale Rossby wave contributions. The dynamical changes are consistently represented across the reanalyses and support our dynamical understanding of the response of the coupled stratosphere–troposphere system to the ozone hole. Although our results suggest a high degree of consistency across the four reanalysis datasets in the representation of these dynamical changes, there are larger differences in the wave forcing, residual circulation, and eddy propagation changes compared to the zonal wind trends. In particular, there is a noticeable disparity in these trends in CFSR compared to the other three reanalyses, while the best agreement is found between ERA5 and JRA-55. Greater uncertainty in the components of the momentum budget, as opposed to mean circulation, suggests that the zonal wind is better constrained by the assimilation of observations compared to the wave forcing, residual circulation, and eddy momentum and heat fluxes, which are more dependent on the model-based forecasts that can differ between reanalyses. Looking forward, however, these findings give us confidence that reanalysis datasets can be used to assess changes associated with the ongoing recovery of stratospheric ozone.

Abstract One of the major globally relevant systematic biases in previous generations of climate models has been an equatorward bias in the latitude of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid‐latitude tropospheric eddy driven westerly jet. The far‐reaching implications of this for Southern Ocean heat and carbon uptake and Antarctic land and sea ice are key reasons why addressing this bias is a high priority. It is therefore of primary importance to evaluate the representation of the SH westerly jet in the latest generation of global climate and earth system models that comprise the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In this paper we assess the representation of major indices of SH extratropical atmospheric circulation in CMIP6 by comparison against both observations and the previous generation of CMIP5 models. Indices assessed are the latitude and speed of the westerly jet, variability of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and representation of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL). These are calculated from the historical forcing simulations of both CMIP5 and CMIP6 for time periods matching available observational and reanalysis data sets. From the 39 CMIP6 models available at the time of writing there is an overall reduction in the equatorward bias of the annual mean westerly jet from 1.9° in CMIP5 to 0.4° in CMIP6 and from a seasonal perspective the reduction is clearest in austral spring and summer. This is accompanied by a halving of the bias of SAM decorrelation timescales compared to CMIP5. However, no such overall improvements are evident for the ASL.

Arctic surface temperature has increased at approximately twice the global rate over the past few decades and is also projected to warm most in the 21st century. However, the mechanism of Arctic vegetation response to this warming remains largely uncertain. Here, we analyse variations in the seasonal profiles of MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Leaf Area Index (LAI) and ERA-interim cumulative near-Surface Air Temperature (SAT _Σ ) over the northern Russia, north of 60° N for 2000–2019. We find that commonly used broad temporal interval (seasonal) trends cannot fully represent complex interannual variations of the LAI profile over the growing season. A sequence of narrow temporal interval (weekly) LAI trends form an inverted S-shape over the course of the growing season with enhanced green-up and senescence, but balanced during the growing season’s peak. Spatial patterns of weekly LAI trends match with those of weekly SAT _Σ trends during the green-up, while the drivers of the browning trends during senescence remain unclear. Geographically the area with the statistically significant temperature-driven enhanced green-up is restricted by a large patch carrying significant positive SAT _Σ trends, which includes North Siberian Lowland, Taimyr, Yamal and adjacent territories. The strength, duration and timing of the changes depend on vegetation type: enhanced green-up is most pronounced in tundra, while enhanced senescence is pronounced in forests. Continued release of the climatic constraints will likely increase the capacity both of the environment (i.e. permafrost thawing) and vegetation (i.e. appearance of more productive woody species), and transform LAI seasonal shifts to change of LAI seasonal amplitude.

The majority of tropospheric ozone depletion event (ODE) studies have focussed on time-series measurements, with comparatively few studies of the vertical component. Those that exist have almost exclusively used free-flying balloon-borne ozonesondes and almost all have been conducted in the Arctic. Here we use measurements from two separate Antarctic field experiments to examine the vertical profile of ozone during Antarctic ODEs. We use tethersonde data to probe details in the lowest few hundred meters and find considerable structure in the profiles associated with complex atmospheric layering. The profiles were all measured at wind speeds less than 7 ms−1, and on each occasion the lowest inversion height lay between 10 m and 40 m. We also use data from a free-flying ozonesonde study to select events where ozone depletion was recorded at altitudes >1 km above ground level. Using ERA-40 meteorological charts, we find that on every occasion the high altitude depletion was preceded by an atmospheric low pressure system. An examination of limited published ozonesonde data from other Antarctic stations shows this to be a consistent feature. Given the link between BrO and ODEs, we also examine ground-based and satellite BrO measurements and find a strong association between atmospheric low pressure systems and enhanced BrO that must arise in the troposphere. The results suggest that, in Antarctica, such depressions are responsible for driving high altitude ODEs and for generating the large-scale BrO clouds observed from satellites. In the Arctic, the prevailing meteorology differs from that in Antarctica, but, while a less common effect, major low pressure systems in the Arctic can also generate BrO clouds. Such depressions thus appear to be fundamental when considering the broader influence of ODEs, certainly in Antarctica, such as halogen export and the radiative influence of ozone-depleted air masses.

The source of bromine that drives polar boundary layer ozone depletion events (ODEs) is still open to some debate. While ODEs are generally noted to form under conditions of a shallow stable boundary layer, observations of depleted air under high wind conditions are taken as being transport-related. Here we report observations from Antarctica in which an unusually large cloud of BrO formed over the Weddell Sea. The enhanced BrO was observed over Halley station in coastal Antarctica, providing an opportunity to probe the conditions within an active "bromine explosion" event. On this occasion, enhanced BrO and depleted boundary layer ozone coincided with high wind speeds and saline blowing snow. We derive a simple model to consider the environmental conditions that favour ODEs and find two maxima, one at low wind/stable boundary layer and one at high wind speeds with blowing snow. Modelling calculations aiming to reproduce the wider regional or global impacts of ODEs, either via radiative effects or as a halogen source, will also need to account for high wind speed mechanisms.

Much research has been carried out on the potential impacts of climate change on forest fire activity in the boreal forest. Indeed, there is a general consensus that, while change will vary regionally across the vast extent of the boreal, in general the fire environment will become more conducive to fire. Land management agencies must consider ways to adapt to these new conditions. This paper examines the impact of that changed fire environment on overall wildfire suppression capability. We use multiple General Circulation Models and carbon emission pathways to generate future fire environment scenarios for Canada’s forested region. We then use these scenarios with the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System and spatial coverages of the current forest fuel composition across the landscape to examine potential variation in key fire behaviour outputs that influence whether fire management resources can effectively suppress fire. Specifically, we evaluate how the potential for crown fire occurrence and active growth of fires changes with the changing climate. We also examine future fire behaviour through the lens of operational fire intensity thresholds used to guide decisions about resources effectiveness. Results indicate that the proportion of days in fire seasons with the potential for unmanageable fire will increase across Canada’s forest, more than doubling in some regions in northern and eastern boreal forest.

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