1. Spatiotemporal dynamics and recurrence of chikungunya virus in Brazil: an epidemiological study
- Author
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De Souza, WM, De Lima, STS, Simões Mello, LM, Candido, DS, Buss, L, Whittaker, C, Claro, IM, Chandradeva, N, Granja, F, De Jesus, R, Lemos, PS, Toledo-Teixeira, DA, Barbosa, PP, Firmino, ACL, Amorim, MR, Duarte, LMF, Pessoa, IB, Forato, J, Vasconcelos, IL, Maximo, ACBM, Araújo, ELL, Perdigão Mello, L, Sabino, EC, Proença-Módena, JL, Faria, NR, and Weaver, SC
- Subjects
Microbiology (medical) ,Infectious Diseases ,Virology ,Microbiology ,Article - Abstract
BACKGROUND: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an Aedes mosquito-borne virus that has caused large epidemics linked to acute, chronic, and severe clinical outcomes. Currently, Brazil has the highest number of chikungunya cases in the Americas. We aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics and recurrence pattern of chikungunya in Brazil since its introduction in 2013. METHODS: In this epidemiological study, we used CHIKV genomic sequencing data, CHIKV vector information, and aggregate clinical data on chikungunya cases from Brazil. The genomic data comprised 241 Brazilian CHIKV genome sequences from GenBank (n=180) and the 2022 CHIKV outbreak in Ceará state (n=61). The vector data (Breteau index and House index) were obtained from the Brazilian Ministry of Health for all 184 municipalities in Ceará state and 116 municipalities in Tocantins state in 2022. Epidemiological data on laboratory-confirmed cases of chikungunya between 2013 and 2022 were obtained from the Brazilian Ministry of Health and Laboratory of Public Health of Ceará. We assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of chikungunya in Brazil via time series, mapping, age-sex distribution, cumulative case-fatality, linear correlation, logistic regression, and phylogenetic analyses. FINDINGS: Between March 3, 2013, and June 4, 2022, 253 545 laboratory-confirmed chikungunya cases were reported in 3316 (59·5%) of 5570 municipalities, mainly distributed in seven epidemic waves from 2016 to 2022. To date, Ceará in the northeast has been the most affected state, with 77 418 cases during the two largest epidemic waves in 2016 and 2017 and the third wave in 2022. From 2016 to 2022 in Ceará, the odds of being CHIKV-positive were higher in females than in males (odds ratio 0·87, 95% CI 0·85-0·89, p
- Published
- 2023