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Declines of Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) populations in the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska could be a consequence of physical oceanographic changes associated with the 1976-77 climate regime shift. Changes in ocean climate are hypothesized to have affected the quantity, quality, and accessibility of prey, which in turn may have affected the rates of birth and death of sea lions. Recent studies of the spatial and temporal variations in the ocean climate system of the North Pacific support this hypothesis. Ocean climate changes appear to have created adaptive opportunities for various species that are preyed upon by Steller sea lions at mid-trophic levels. The east-west asymmetry of the oceanic response to climate forcing after 1976-77 is consistent with both the temporal aspect (populations decreased after the late 1970s) and the spatial aspect of the decline (western, but not eastern, sea lion populations decreased). These broad-scale climate variations appear to be modulated by regionally sensitive biogeographic structures along the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska, which include a transition point from coastal to open-ocean conditions at Samalga Pass westward along the Aleutian Islands. These transition points delineate distinct clusterings of different combinations of prey species, which are in turn correlated with differential population sizes and trajectories of Steller sea lions. Archaeological records spanning 4000 yr further indicate that sea lion populations have experienced major shifts in abundance in the past. Shifts in ocean climate are the most parsimonious underlying explanation for the broad suite of ecosystem changes that have been observed in the North Pacific Ocean in recent decades. © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

While freshwater and anadromous fish have been critical economic resources for late prehistoric and modern Native Americans, the origin and development of fishing is not well understood. We document the earliest known human use of freshwater and anadromous fish in North America by 13,000 and 11,800 years ago, respectively, from primary anthropogenic contexts in central Alaska (eastern Beringia). Fish use appears conditioned by broad climatic factors, as all occurrences but one are within the Younger Dryas chronozone. Earlier Bølling-Allerød and later early Holocene components, while exhibiting similar organic preservation, did not yield evidence of fishing, suggesting that this was a response to changing environmental factors, perhaps reductions in higher ranked resources such as large terrestrial mammals. Late Pleistocene and recent Indigenous peoples harvested similar fish taxa in the region (salmon, burbot, whitefish, and pike). We characterize late Pleistocene fishing in interior Beringia as an important element of broad-spectrum foraging rather than the intensive communal fishing and storage common among recent peoples.

The stock-specific distribution of maturing salmon in the North Pacific has been a persistent information gap that has prevented us from determining the ocean conditions experienced by individual stocks. This continues to impede understanding of the role of ocean conditions in stock-specific population dynamics. We assessed scale archives for 17 sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka ) stocks covering the entire North Pacific, from the Columbia River (Washington State and British Columbia) to Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia), to infer salmon locations during their last growing season before returning to their spawning grounds. The approach used, first pioneered in salmon stocks in the Atlantic, relies on the relationship between temporal changes in δ 13 C in salmon scales and sea surface temperature to estimate salmon distribution based on correlation strength. An advantage of this approach is that it does not require fish sampling at sea, but relies on existing fishery agency collections of salmon scales. Significant correlations were found for 7 of the stocks allowing us to propose plausible feeding grounds. Complementary information from δ 15 N, historical tagging studies, and connectivity analysis were used to further refine distribution estimates. This study is a first step toward estimating stock-specific distributions of salmon in the North Pacific and provides a basis for the application of the approach to other salmon scale archives. This information has the potential to improve our ability to relate stock dynamics to ocean conditions, ultimately enabling improved stock management. For example, our estimated distributions of Bristol Bay and NE Pacific stocks demonstrated that they occupy different areas with a number of the former being distributed in the high productivity shelf waters of the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea. This may explain why these stocks seem to have responded differently to changes in ocean conditions, and the long-term trend of increased productivity of Bristol Bay sockeye., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests., (© 2020 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The earliest Native Americans have often been portrayed as either megafaunal specialists or generalist foragers, but this debate cannot be resolved by studying the faunal record alone. Stable isotope analysis directly reveals the foods consumed by individuals. We present multi-tissue isotope analyses of two Ancient Beringian infants from the Upward Sun River site (USR), Alaska (~11,500 years ago). Models of fetal bone turnover combined with seasonally-sensitive taxa show that the carbon and nitrogen isotope composition of USR infant bone collagen reflects maternal diets over the summer. Using comparative faunal isotope data, we demonstrate that although terrestrial sources dominated maternal diets, salmon was also important, supported by carbon isotope analysis of essential amino acids and bone bioapatite. Tooth enamel samples indicate increased salmon use between spring and summer. Our results do not support either strictly megafaunal specialists or generalized foragers but indicate that Ancient Beringian diets were complex and seasonally structured., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).)

The ability to distinguish between different migratory behaviours (e.g., anadromy and potamodromy) in fish can provide important insights into the ecology, evolution, and conservation of many aquatic species. We present a simple stable carbon isotope (δ13C) approach for distinguishing between sockeye (anadromous ocean migrants) and kokanee (potamodromous freshwater residents), two migratory ecotypes of Oncorhynchus nerka (Salmonidae) that is applicable throughout most of their range across coastal regions of the North Pacific Ocean. Analyses of kokanee (n = 239) and sockeye (n = 417) from 87 sites spanning the North Pacific (Russia to California) show that anadromous and potamodromous ecotypes are broadly distinguishable on the basis of the δ13C values of their scale and bone collagen. We present three case studies demonstrating how this approach can address questions in archaeology, archival, and conservation research. Relative to conventional methods for determining migratory status, which typically apply chemical analyses to otoliths or involve genetic analyses of tissues, the δ13C approach outlined here has the benefit of being non-lethal (when applied to scales), cost-effective, widely available commercially, and should be much more broadly accessible for addressing archaeological questions since the recovery of otoliths at archaeological sites is rare., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Salmon represented a critical resource for prehistoric foragers along the North Pacific Rim, and continue to be economically and culturally important; however, the origins of salmon exploitation remain unresolved. Here we report 11,500-y-old salmon associated with a cooking hearth and human burials from the Upward Sun River Site, near the modern extreme edge of salmon habitat in central Alaska. This represents the earliest known human use of salmon in North America. Ancient DNA analyses establish the species as Oncorhynchus keta (chum salmon), and stable isotope analyses indicate anadromy, suggesting that salmon runs were established by at least the terminal Pleistocene. The early use of this resource has important implications for Paleoindian land use, economy, and expansions into northwest North America.

Observational data from the past century have highlighted the importance of interdecadal modes of variability in fish population dynamics, but how these patterns of variation fit into a broader temporal and spatial context remains largely unknown. We analyzed time series of stable nitrogen isotopes from the sediments of 20 sockeye salmon nursery lakes across western Alaska to characterize temporal and spatial patterns in salmon abundance over the past ∼500 y. Although some stocks varied on interdecadal time scales (30- to 80-y cycles), centennial-scale variation, undetectable in modern-day catch records and survey data, has dominated salmon population dynamics over the past 500 y. Before 1900, variation in abundance was clearly not synchronous among stocks, and the only temporal signal common to lake sediment records from this region was the onset of commercial fishing in the late 1800s. Thus, historical changes in climate did not synchronize stock dynamics over centennial time scales, emphasizing that ecosystem complexity can produce a diversity of ecological responses to regional climate forcing. Our results show that marine fish populations may alternate between naturally driven periods of high and low abundance over time scales of decades to centuries and suggest that management models that assume time-invariant productivity or carrying capacity parameters may be poor representations of the biological reality in these systems.

Multiple paleoclimate proxies are required for robust assessment of past hydroclimatic conditions. Currently, estimates of drought variability over the past several thousand years are based largely on tree-ring records. We produced a 1,500-y record of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest using a physical model-based analysis of lake sediment oxygen isotope data. Our results indicate that during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (900-1300 AD) the Pacific Northwest experienced exceptional wetness in winter and that during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1450-1850 AD) conditions were drier, contrasting with hydroclimatic anomalies in the desert Southwest and consistent with climate dynamics related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These findings are somewhat discordant with drought records from tree rings, suggesting that differences in seasonal sensitivity between the two proxies allow a more compete understanding of the climate system and likely explain disparities in inferred climate trends over centennial timescales.

Humans have more than doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen (Nr) added to the biosphere, yet most of what is known about its accumulation and ecological effects is derived from studies of heavily populated regions. Nitrogen (N) stable isotope ratios ((15)N:(14)N) in dated sediments from 25 remote Northern Hemisphere lakes show a coherent signal of an isotopically distinct source of N to ecosystems beginning in 1895 ± 10 years (±1 standard deviation). Initial shifts in N isotope composition recorded in lake sediments coincide with anthropogenic CO(2) emissions but accelerate with widespread industrial Nr production during the past half century. Although current atmospheric Nr deposition rates in remote regions are relatively low, anthropogenic N has probably influenced watershed N budgets across the Northern Hemisphere for over a century.

We present a 6,000-yr record of changing water balance in the Pacific Northwest inferred from measurements of carbonate δ(18)O and grayscale on a sediment core collected from Castor Lake, Washington. This subdecadally resolved drought record tracks the 1,500-yr tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstructions of Cook et al. [Cook ER, Woodhouse CA, Eakin CM, Meko DM, Stahle DW (2004) Science 306:1015-1018] in the Pacific Northwest and extends our knowledge back to 6,000 yr B.P. The results demonstrate that low-frequency drought/pluvial cycles, with occasional long-duration, multidecadal events, are a persistent feature of regional climate. Furthermore, the average duration of multidecadal wet/dry cycles has increased since the middle Holocene, which has acted to increase the amplitude and impact of these events. This is especially apparent during the last 1,000 yr. We suggest these transitions were driven by changes in the tropical and extratropical Pacific and are related to apparent intensification of the El Niño Southern Oscillation over this interval and its related effects on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The Castor Lake record also corroborates the notion that the 20th century, prior to recent aridity, was a relatively wet period compared to the last 6,000 yr. Our findings suggest that the hydroclimate response in the Pacific Northwest to future warming will be intimately tied to the impact of warming on the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

Historical catch records suggest that climatic variability has had basin-wide effects on the northern Pacific and its fish populations, such as salmon, sardines and anchovies. However, these records are too short to define the nature and frequency of patterns. We reconstructed approximately 2,200-year records of sockeye salmon abundance from sediment cores obtained from salmon nursery lakes on Kodiak island, Alaska. Large shifts in abundance, which far exceed the decadal-scale variability recorded during the past 300 years, occurred over the past two millennia. A marked, multi-centennial decline in Alaskan sockeye salmon was apparent from approximately 100 BC to AD 800, but salmon were consistently more abundant from AD 1200 to 1900. Over the past two millennia, the abundances of Pacific sardine and Northern anchovy off the California coast, and of Alaskan salmon, show several synchronous patterns of variability. But sardines and anchovies vary out of phase with Alaskan salmon over low frequency, which differs from the pattern detected in historical records. The coherent patterns observed across large regions demonstrate the strong role of climatic forcing in regulating northeastern Pacific fish stocks.

Sea lion and seal populations in Alaskan waters underwent various degrees of decline during the latter half of the twentieth century and the cause(s) for the declines remain uncertain. The stable carbon ((13)C/(12)C) and nitrogen ((15)N/(14)N) isotope ratios in bone collagen from wild Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus), northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) and harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) from the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska were measured for the period 1951-1997 to test the hypothesis that a change in trophic level may have occurred during this interval and contributed to the population declines. A significant change in δ(15)N in pinniped tissues over time would imply a marked change in trophic level. No significant change in bone collagen δ(15)N was found for any of the three species during the past 47 years in either the Bering Sea or the Gulf of Alaska. However, the (15)N in the Steller sea lion collagen was significantly higher than both northern fur seals and harbor seals. A significant decline in δ(13)C (almost 2 ‰ over the 47 years) was evident in Steller sea lions, while a declining trend, though not significant, was evident in harbor seals and northern fur seals. Changes in foraging location, in combination with a trophic shift, may offer one possible explanation. Nevertheless, a decrease in δ(13)C over time with no accompanying change in δ(15)N suggests an environmental change affecting the base of the foodweb rather than a trophic level change due to prey switching. A decline in the seasonal primary production in the region, possibly resulting from decreased phytoplankton growth rates, would exhibit itself as a decline in δ(13)C. Declining production could be an indication of a reduced carrying capacity in the North Pacific Ocean. Sufficient quantities of optimal prey species may have fallen below threshold sustaining densities for these pinnipeds, particularly for yearlings and subadults who have not yet developed adequate foraging skills.

The effects of climate variability on Pacific salmon abundance are uncertain because historical records are short and are complicated by commercial harvesting and habitat alteration. We use lake sediment records of delta15N and biological indicators to reconstruct sockeye salmon abundance in the Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island regions of Alaska over the past 300 years. Marked shifts in populations occurred over decades during this period, and some pronounced changes appear to be related to climatic change. Variations in salmon returns due to climate or harvesting can have strong impacts on sockeye nursery lake productivity in systems where adult salmon carcasses are important nutrient sources.

The extension of growing season at high northern latitudes seems increasingly clear from satellite observations of vegetation extent and duration. This extension is also thought to explain the observed increase in amplitude of seasonal variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Increased plant respiration and photosynthesis both correlate well with increases in temperature this century and are therefore the most probable link between the vegetation and CO2 observations. From these observations, it has been suggested that increases in temperature have stimulated carbon uptake in high latitudes and for the boreal forest system as a whole. Here we present multi-proxy tree-ring data (ring width, maximum late-wood density and carbon-isotope composition) from 20 productive stands of white spruce in the interior of Alaska. The tree-ring records show a strong and consistent relationship over the past 90 years and indicate that, in contrast with earlier predictions, radial growth has decreased with increasing temperature. Our data show that temperature-induced drought stress has disproportionately affected the most rapidly growing white spruce, suggesting that, under recent climate warming, drought may have been an important factor limiting carbon uptake in a large portion of the North American boreal forest. If this limitation in growth due to drought stress is sustained, the future capacity of northern latitudes to sequester carbon may be less than currently expected.