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IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic triggered global health crises, affecting population health directly through infections and fatalities, and indirectly by increasing the burden of chronic diseases due to disrupted healthcare access and altered lifestyle behaviors. Amidst these challenges, concerns regarding reproductive health and fertility rates have emerged, necessitating an understanding of their implications for policymaking and healthcare planning. Furthermore, Kazakhstan’s healthcare landscape underwent significant changes with the reintroduction of compulsory social health insurance system in January 2020, coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and compulsory social health insurance system on fertility rates in Kazakhstan by examining live birth data from 2019 to 2024.MethodsUsing Interrupted Time Series analysis, we evaluated the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown announcement and compulsory social health insurance system implementation on monthly birth rates, adjusted for the number of women of reproductive age from January 2019 to December 2023.ResultsIn the final model, the coefficients were as follows: the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown was estimated at 469 (SE = 2600, p = 0.8576); the centering variable was estimated at 318 (SE = 222, p = 0.1573), suggesting no significant trend in monthly birth rates over time; the insurance effect was estimated at 7,050 (SE = 2,530, p < 0.01); and the effect of the number of women of reproductive age was estimated at -0.204 (SE = 0.0831, p = 0.01).DiscussionThe implementation of the compulsory social health insurance system, rather than the announcement of the COVID-19 lockdown, has had a significant positive impact on live birth rates in Kazakhstan. However, despite governmental efforts, live birth rates are declining, potentially due to unaddressed health needs of fertile women and economic challenges. Urgent policy-level actions are needed to address gaps in healthcare services and promote reproductive health.

Multiple episodes in US history demonstrate that birth rates fall in response to recessions. However, the 2020 COVID-19 recession differed from earlier periods in that employment and access to contraception and abortion fell, as reproductive health centers across the country temporarily closed or reduced their capacity. This paper exploits novel survey and administrative data to examine how reductions in access to reproductive health care during 2020 affected contraceptive efficacy among low-income women. Accounting for 2020's reductions in access to contraception and the economic slowdown, our results predict a modest decline in births of 1.1 percent in 2021 for low-income women. Further accounting for reductions in access to abortion implies that birth rates may even rise for low-income women. These results also suggest that already economically disadvantaged families disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 economy will experience a large increase in unplanned births.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-022-09703-9.

Based on data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP), this study examines the extent to which cognitive dissonance regarding egalitarian attitudes toward the gender division of labour are associated with fertility rates in sixteen societies, representing Anglo American, Northern European, Western European and East Asian regimes. The findings show that although levels of support for gender equality in the realms of the family and the market are positively associated with fertility rates, an even stronger relationship to fertility emerges when weighing the differences between the levels of support for gender equality in each realm. The findings lend some corroboration to McDonald's hypothesis, which suggests that declining fertility rates are influenced by contradictory expectations between gender equality for women in the home and market.

In a previous study, we showed that various low-molecular-weight compounds in follicular fluid (FF) samples of control fertile females (CFF) have different concentrations compared to those found in FF of infertile females (IF), before and after their categorization into different subgroups, according to their clinical diagnosis of infertility. Using the same FF samples of this previous study, we here analyzed the FF concentrations of free and bound bilirubin and compared the results obtained in CFF, IF and the different subgroups of IF (endometriosis, EM, polycystic ovary syndrome, PCOS, age-related reduced ovarian reserve, AR-ROR, reduced ovarian reserve, ROR, genetic infertility, GI and unexplained infertility, UI). The results clearly indicated that CFF had lower values of free, bound and total bilirubin compared to the respective values measured in pooled IF. These differences were observed even when IF were categorized into EM, PCOS, AR-ROR, ROR, GI and UI, with EM and PCOS showing the highest values of free, bound and total bilirubin among the six subgroups. Using previous results of ascorbic acid, GSH and nitrite + nitrate measured in the same FF samples of the same FF donors, we found that total bilirubin in FF increased as a function of decreased values of ascorbic acid and GSH, and increased concentrations of nitrite + nitrate. The values of total bilirubin negatively correlated with the clinical parameters of fertilization procedures (number of retrieved oocytes, mature oocytes, fertilized oocytes, blastocysts, high-quality blastocysts) and with clinical pregnancies and birth rates. Bilirubin concentrations in FF were not linked to those found in serum samples of FF donors, thereby strongly suggesting that its over production was due to higher activity of heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1), the key enzyme responsible for bilirubin formation, in granulosa cells, or cumulus cells or oocytes of IF and ultimately leading to bilirubin accumulation in FF. Since increased activity of HO-1 is one of the main enzymatic intracellular mechanisms of defense towards external insults (oxidative/nitrosative stress, inflammation), and since we found correlations among bilirubin and oxidative/nitrosative stress in these FF samples, it may reasonably be supposed that bilirubin increase in FF of IF is the result of protracted exposures to the aforementioned insults evidently playing relevant roles in female infertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Notwithstanding the great improvement of ART, the overall rate of successful pregnancies from implanted human embryos is definitely low. The current routine embryo quality assessment is performed only through morphological criteria, which has poor predictive capacity since only a minor percentage of those in the highest class give rise to successful pregnancy. Previous studies highlighted the potentiality of the analysis of metabolites in human embryo culture media, useful for the selection of embryos for implantation. In the present study, we analyzed in blind 66 human embryo culture media at 5 days after in vitro fertilization with the aim of quantifying compounds released by cell metabolism that were not present as normal constituents of the human embryo growth media, including purines, pyrimidines, nitrite, and nitrate. Only some purines were detectable (hypoxanthine and uric acid) in the majority of samples, while nitrite and nitrate were always detectable. When matching biochemical results with morphological evaluation, it was found that low grade embryos (n = 12) had significantly higher levels of all the compounds of interest. Moreover, when matching biochemical results according to successful (n = 17) or unsuccessful (n = 25) pregnancy, it was found that human embryos from the latter group released higher concentrations of hypoxanthine, uric acid, nitrite, and nitrate in the culture media. Additionally, those embryos that developed into successful pregnancies were all associated with the birth of healthy newborns. These results, although carried out on a relatively low number of samples, indicate that the analysis of the aforementioned compounds in the culture media of human embryos is a potentially useful tool for the selection of embryos for implantation, possibly leading to an increase in the overall rate of ART. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a previous study, we showed that various low-molecular-weight compounds in follicular fluid (FF) samples of control fertile females (CFF) have different concentrations compared to those found in FF of infertile females (IF), before and after their categorization into different subgroups, according to their clinical diagnosis of infertility. Using the same FF samples of this previous study, we here analyzed the FF concentrations of free and bound bilirubin and compared the results obtained in CFF, IF and the different subgroups of IF (endometriosis, EM, polycystic ovary syndrome, PCOS, age-related reduced ovarian reserve, AR-ROR, reduced ovarian reserve, ROR, genetic infertility, GI and unexplained infertility, UI). The results clearly indicated that CFF had lower values of free, bound and total bilirubin compared to the respective values measured in pooled IF. These differences were observed even when IF were categorized into EM, PCOS, AR-ROR, ROR, GI and UI, with EM and PCOS showing the highest values of free, bound and total bilirubin among the six subgroups. Using previous results of ascorbic acid, GSH and nitrite + nitrate measured in the same FF samples of the same FF donors, we found that total bilirubin in FF increased as a function of decreased values of ascorbic acid and GSH, and increased concentrations of nitrite + nitrate. The values of total bilirubin negatively correlated with the clinical parameters of fertilization procedures (number of retrieved oocytes, mature oocytes, fertilized oocytes, blastocysts, high-quality blastocysts) and with clinical pregnancies and birth rates. Bilirubin concentrations in FF were not linked to those found in serum samples of FF donors, thereby strongly suggesting that its over production was due to higher activity of heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1), the key enzyme responsible for bilirubin formation, in granulosa cells, or cumulus cells or oocytes of IF and ultimately leading to bilirubin accumulation in FF. Since increased activity of HO-1 is one of the main enzymatic intracellular mechanisms of defense towards external insults (oxidative/nitrosative stress, inflammation), and since we found correlations among bilirubin and oxidative/nitrosative stress in these FF samples, it may reasonably be supposed that bilirubin increase in FF of IF is the result of protracted exposures to the aforementioned insults evidently playing relevant roles in female infertility.

This work is intended as an attempt to illustrate and compare the pattern of fertility in European countries: Belarus, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. It deals with the analysis of fertility trends, with an emphasis on birth by parity. Using data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD) from the year 2016, it has considered the parameters of parity progression ratios (PPR), projected parity progression ratios (PPPR), age‑specific fertility rates (ASFR), age‑order specific fertility rates (AOSFR), and cumulated order‑specific fertility rates accordingly analysed. We have applied indicators known as the projected parity progression ratios to estimate trends of fertility. These offer a more detailed view of the family formation process than the traditional total fertility rate (TFR).

Abstract: Over the past half-century, the world has witnessed a steep decline in fertility rates in virtually every country on Earth. This universal decline in fertility is being driven by increasing prosperity largely through the mediation of social factors, the most powerful of which are the education of women and an accompanying shift in life's purpose away from procreation. In addition, it is clear that environmental and lifestyle factors are also having a profound impact on our reproductive competence particularly in the male where increasing prosperity is associated with a significant rise in the incidence of testicular cancer and a secular decline in semen quality and testosterone levels. On a different timescale, we should also recognize that the increased prosperity associated with the demographic transition greatly reduces the selection pressure on high fertility genes by lowering the rates of infant and childhood mortality. The retention of poor fertility genes within the human population is also being exacerbated by the increased uptake of ART. It is arguable that all of these elements are colluding to drive our species into an infertility trap. If we are to avoid the latter, it will be important to recognize the factors contributing to this phenomenon and adopt the social, political, environmental and lifestyle changes needed to bring this situation under control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Espacio, Tiempo y Forma: Serie VI, Geografía is the property of Editorial UNED and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

By exploring the professional trajectory of sociologist Gheorghe (George) Retegan (1916–1998), this article addresses the epistemological and personal reconfigurations of the field of social sciences in post-war Romania, highlighting the complex relations and professional rivalries in the field after the Second World War, and their consequences for social knowledge. My study explores Retegan’s published and unpublished works, archival documents, and an interview that Z. Rostás conducted with Retegan in the 1990s. I analyse three research ventures relevant for understanding Retegan’s professional trajectory and methodological choices: the 1948–1950 family budget research that Retegan coordinated at the Central Institute for Statistics; the 1957–1959 monographic research he coordinated at the Institute for Economic Research; and his “farewell” to sociology and specialization in demography beginning in the 1960s. My article documents Retegan’s remarkable capacity to develop research by way of formulating new questions, methodologies, and techniques, on the basis of the main elements of empirical research he learned during his training in sociology under the supervision of Anton Golopenția. Retegan’s contributions to the field of empirical social research suggest how a context that was generally unfavourable for the development of social sciences (1948–1965) could be used in a creative way for the study of the social world. Epistemologically, the survival and even innovation of empirical research under unfavourable ideological and political conditions made possible the rehabilitation of sociology as a discipline in the much more favourable context of the second half of the 1960s.

Notwithstanding the great improvement of ART, the overall rate of successful pregnancies from implanted human embryos is definitely low. The current routine embryo quality assessment is performed only through morphological criteria, which has poor predictive capacity since only a minor percentage of those in the highest class give rise to successful pregnancy. Previous studies highlighted the potentiality of the analysis of metabolites in human embryo culture media, useful for the selection of embryos for implantation. In the present study, we analyzed in blind 66 human embryo culture media at 5 days after in vitro fertilization with the aim of quantifying compounds released by cell metabolism that were not present as normal constituents of the human embryo growth media, including purines, pyrimidines, nitrite, and nitrate. Only some purines were detectable (hypoxanthine and uric acid) in the majority of samples, while nitrite and nitrate were always detectable. When matching biochemical results with morphological evaluation, it was found that low grade embryos (n = 12) had significantly higher levels of all the compounds of interest. Moreover, when matching biochemical results according to successful (n = 17) or unsuccessful (n = 25) pregnancy, it was found that human embryos from the latter group released higher concentrations of hypoxanthine, uric acid, nitrite, and nitrate in the culture media. Additionally, those embryos that developed into successful pregnancies were all associated with the birth of healthy newborns. These results, although carried out on a relatively low number of samples, indicate that the analysis of the aforementioned compounds in the culture media of human embryos is a potentially useful tool for the selection of embryos for implantation, possibly leading to an increase in the overall rate of ART.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic triggered global health crises, affecting population health directly through infections and fatalities, and indirectly by increasing the burden of chronic diseases due to disrupted healthcare access and altered lifestyle behaviors. Amidst these challenges, concerns regarding reproductive health and fertility rates have emerged, necessitating an understanding of their implications for policymaking and healthcare planning. Furthermore, Kazakhstan's healthcare landscape underwent significant changes with the reintroduction of compulsory social health insurance system in January 2020, coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and compulsory social health insurance system on fertility rates in Kazakhstan by examining live birth data from 2019 to 2024., Methods: Using Interrupted Time Series analysis, we evaluated the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown announcement and compulsory social health insurance system implementation on monthly birth rates, adjusted for the number of women of reproductive age from January 2019 to December 2023., Results: In the final model, the coefficients were as follows: the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown was estimated at 469 (SE = 2600, p = 0.8576); the centering variable was estimated at 318 (SE = 222, p = 0.1573), suggesting no significant trend in monthly birth rates over time; the insurance effect was estimated at 7,050 (SE = 2,530, p < 0.01); and the effect of the number of women of reproductive age was estimated at -0.204 (SE = 0.0831, p = 0.01)., Discussion: The implementation of the compulsory social health insurance system, rather than the announcement of the COVID-19 lockdown, has had a significant positive impact on live birth rates in Kazakhstan. However, despite governmental efforts, live birth rates are declining, potentially due to unaddressed health needs of fertile women and economic challenges. Urgent policy-level actions are needed to address gaps in healthcare services and promote reproductive health., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Karibayeva, Moiynbayeva, Akhmetov, Yerkenova, Shaikova, Moshkalova, Mussayeva and Tarakova.)

In recent years, Japan has faced a significant demographic crisis, which was further exacerbated by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. By 2022, the country experienced a 1.5% decrease in population, which is in contrast to other G7 nations, and had the highest rate of excess mortality among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. This crisis is mainly attributed to aging population, with Japan's aging rate reaching 29.9%, the highest among its peer countries. The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has proposed policies aimed at addressing these challenges, focusing on increasing fertility rates. Despite these efforts, an evidence-based policymaking (EBPM) analysis reveals that the anticipated impact on fertility rates is marginal, with financial interventions estimated to yield only a slight population increase by 2060. Furthermore, the analysis highlighted the need for a more comprehensive approach, indicating that addressing societal issues such as gender norms and workplace culture might be crucial for a sustainable solution to Japan's demographic challenges. This emphasizes the need for Japan to consider broader societal changes alongside fiscal policies to effectively combat its demographic decline., Competing Interests: Dr Ozaki reported personal fees from Medical Network Systems Inc. and Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., outside the submitted work. Dr Tanimoto reported personal fees from Medical Network Systems Inc., and Bionics Co., Ltd., outside the submitted work. No other disclosures were reported., (Copyright © Japan Medical Association.)

This paper examines the family policy reforms of 2007 in Russia that were aimed explicitly at encouraging second and higher-order births, and analyses their impact on fertility. The existing empirical findings about population policy interventions in transition economies are inconclusive, while the most common argument states that policies based on material incentives are insufficient to significantly raise the real fertility in a population. The study aims to offer a better insight to the following research question: was Russian demographic policy effective in terms of raising the fertility level in the country or did it merely change the timing of births? The objective of the paper is to measure two effects of the pronatalist policy in Russia: tempo effect and quantum effect. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, I employ the decomposition method to separate tempo and quantum effects in the observed total fertility rate, and I estimate their relative weight in observed fertility changes. The analysis of period fertility indicators confirmed the prevalence of a tempo effect in observed total fertility rate change, but also revealed a quantum effect of the policy measures, although this was much smaller. Policy impact varied by birth order. For second parity, the tempo effect played a more critical role, while for third parity the quantum effect was more important. Another decomposition approach employed to measure the contributions of various factors in the increase of the number of births during the post-reform period showed the quantum effect which was driven by second and third order births. The study provides empirical evidence of the impact of policies on fertility behaviour, expands the existing analysis of pronatalist measures taken in Russia, and contributes to our understanding of the role of tempo and quantum effects in the recent fertility change in Russia.

Many studies have been conducted on the relationship between education as an indicator of human capital and economic growth in our country. However, there have been a few studies regarding the simultaneous impact of health capital and education indicators on the economic growth of the provinces up to now. In this regard, the present study examined the impact of human health indicators and educational expenditures on the economic growth of the provinces of Iran. In this study, the dynamic effect of health capital indicators and educational expenditure along with the performance of the capital assets ownership on the growth of the economies was examined using the panel data obtained from the provinces during the years 2005-2015 by employing the generalized method of moments. The study results indicate that the fertility rate with a coefficient of 0.39, life expectancy with a coefficient of 0.202, and growth of household health expenditures with a coefficient of 0.045 had a positive effect on the economic growth of the provinces. However, the mortality rate with a coefficient of 0.203 had a significant negative effect on the provinces economic growth during the years under study. It was also found that educational expenditures growth and performance of capital assets ownership had a significant positive effect on the economic growth of the provinces. The health capital and its indicators are a long-term investment that should be considered as an important priority by the policymakers of the country and provinces.

Three broad categories of transformative changes have been recommended in The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review (henceforth Review): (i) The need to address the imbalance between our demands on Nature and its supply. (ii) The need to change our measures of economic success. (iii) The need for institutional change. However, what the private citizen would like to find in the Review differs from what someone in a government department or an international agency or a private company seeks. These notes have been prompted by the many virtual meetings I have had since the Review 's launch and they further explore aspects of the Review 's recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica is the property of Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Lodzkiego and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper examines the family policy reforms of 2007 in Russia that were aimed explicitly at encouraging second and higher-order births, and analyses their impact on fertility. The existing empirical findings about population policy interventions in transition economies are inconclusive, while the most common argument states that policies based on material incentives are insufficient to significantly raise the real fertility in a population. The study aims to offer a better insight to the following research question: was Russian demographic policy effective in terms of raising the fertility level in the country or did it merely change the timing of births? The objective of the paper is to measure two effects of the pronatalist policy in Russia: tempo effect and quantum effect. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, I employ the decomposition method to separate tempo and quantum effects in the observed total fertility rate, and I estimate their relative weight in observed fertility changes. The analysis of period fertility indicators confirmed the prevalence of a tempo effect in observed total fertility rate change, but also revealed a quantum effect of the policy measures, although this was much smaller. Policy impact varied by birth order. For second parity, the tempo effect played a more critical role, while for third parity the quantum effect was more important. Another decomposition approach employed to measure the contributions of various factors in the increase of the number of births during the post-reform period showed the quantum effect which was driven by second and third order births. The study provides empirical evidence of the impact of policies on fertility behaviour, expands the existing analysis of pronatalist measures taken in Russia, and contributes to our understanding of the role of tempo and quantum effects in the recent fertility change in Russia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aim: In the past studies, few researchers have addressed the simultaneous effects of human capital in health and education indicators on the economic growth of the country, and especially, provinces of the country. Therefore, the current study examined the simultaneous effects of human capital in health and education indicators on the economic growth in Iran s’ Provinces Materials and Methods: This was an applied, analytical, descriptive study, and the research community consisted of the countrychr('39')s provinces. The data were collected through documentary-library research and from the databases of Iran Office for National Statistics, and Central Bank; afterwards, they were analyzed via unit-root and chow tests, using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Eviews 9. Results: The results showed that each percent of rise in family health expenditure, fertility rate, and life expectancy increased the provincial economic growth by 0.033%, 0.71%, and 1.83% respectively. In addition, 1% rise in mortality rate decreased the provincial economic growth by 0.43%. Educational expenditure influenced the provincial economic growth by a coefficient of 0.08, and credit capital asset acquisition, by a coefficient of 0.048. Conclusion: Human capital is considered a long-term investment in health and education sectors which should be an important priority on the agenda of provincial policymakers.

Nigeria has a plural legal system in which various sources of law govern simultaneously. Inconsistent and conflicting legal frameworks can reinforce pre–existing health disparities in sexual and reproductive health (SRH). While previous studies indicate poor SRH outcomes for Nigerian women and girls, particularly in Northern states, the relationship between customary and religious law (CRL) and SRH has not been explored. We conducted a state-level ecological study to examine the relationship between CRL and SRH outcomes among women in 36 Nigerian states and the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja (n = 37), using publicly available Demographic and Health Survey data from 2013. Indicators were guided by published research and included contraception use among married women, total fertility rate, median age at first birth, receipt of antenatal care, delivery location, and comprehensive knowledge of HIV. To account for economic differences between states, crude linear regression models were compared to a multivariable model, adjusting for per capita GDP. All SRH outcomes, except comprehensive knowledge of HIV, were statistically significantly more negative in CRL states compared to non–CRL states, even after accounting for state–level GDP. In CRL states in 2013, compared to non–CRL states, the proportion of married women who used any method of contraception was 22.7 percentage points lower ([95% CI: −15.78 –−29.64], p<0.001), a difference that persisted in a model adjusting for per capita GDP (b[adj] = −16.15, 95% CI: [−8.64 –−23.66], p<0.001.). While this analysis of retrospective state-level data found robust associations between CRL and poor SRH outcomes, future research should incorporate prospective individual-level data to further elucidate these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modelling of HIV trends in Tanzania uses surveillance data from antenatal clinics after adjusting for the reduction in fertility of women living with HIV (WLWH). The rollout of HIV care and treatment services has enabled many WLWH to start on antiretroviral treatment (ART) earlier and are counselled on the options to prevent HIV transmission to their children. The assumption that being HIV positive leads to lower fertility needs to be revisited. This study aims to quantify the effect of ART program expansion on the fertility rate of WLWH in Tanzania. We used Cox regression model to estimate fertility rate and associated factors among WLWH of reproductive age (15–49 years) who enrolled in HIV care and treatment at 57 centers in Tabora from 2008 to 2014. A decomposition of Poisson regression was used to explore the reasons for fertility rate differences observed among WLWH. A total of 6,397 WLWH aged 15–49 years were followed for a median time of 2.0 years. The total fertility rate of 48.8/1,000 person years (95%CI: 44.6 to 52.9/1,000) was inversely proportional to age and WHO clinical staging. WLWH on ART had higher fertility compared to those not started on ART (aHR = 1.5, 95%CI: 1.2–1.9). Being married or cohabiting, having higher CD4 cell count and not using contraceptives were associated with higher fertility rate. The fertility rate after post-ART initiation was 54.95/1,000 and among pre-ART users was 40.52/1,000, a difference of 14.43/1,000 in fertility rate between the groups. In the decomposition analysis, proximate determinants of fertility rate among WLWH on ART accounted for a 93.8% smaller increase than expected. In an era of ART expansion in Tabora region, fertility rates of WLWH increased. Higher fertility rates in women on ART may alter the estimation of HIV prevalence and incidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China relaxed its family planning policy and adopted a universal two-child policy on January 1, 2016 to actively address the country’s aging trend. However, the policy has failed to have any significant effect on the fertility rate of many provinces. In light of the country having the highest sex ratio at birth in the world and the huge burden of the aging population, improving the fertility rate is an urgent priority in China. This facility-based cross-sectional survey aimed to study determinants of fertility decision-making among couples based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. The study was conducted in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. A structured self-administered questionnaire was completed by 1,399 couples, consisting of wives aged 20–49 years and their husbands. Based on the structural equation modeling method of analysis, determinants of fertility decision-making were perceived behavior control (perceived importance of having a stable income and cost of raising a child), subjective norms (perceived social pressure about “sex preference of the newborn by themselves and their partner”) and attitudes (only healthy parents can have a child). Other significant factors influencing fertility decision were ethnicity and education level, with ethnic minority couples having less perception of social norm towards fertility and those with higher education having higher perceived control toward having a (further) child. The study reveals the importance of the China’s infrastructure and public facilities to support child-rearing to increase the fertility rate among couples of child-bearing age, which in turn will reduce the burden associated with an aging society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Demographic and Health Surveys, widely used for estimation of fertility and reproductive health indicators in developing countries, remain underutilized for the study of pregnancy termination. This is partly due to most surveys not reporting the type of pregnancy termination, whether spontaneous or induced. Reproductive calendar data makes it possible to examine termination patterns according to contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy. Contraceptive failure is expected to increase the likelihood of induced abortion helping in the interpretation of reported termination patterns. Materials and methods: We use individual-level calendar data regarding 623,966 pregnancies to analyze levels and differentials in reported patterns of pregnancy termination by age, union status, and contraceptive use in 107 DHS surveys from 50 countries. From the estimates of the probability of pregnancy termination, we compute derived reproductive health indicators providing an assessment of what is driving the differences by comparison to the few surveys reporting the type of pregnancy termination. Results: From our estimates, 10.9% of pregnancies do not end in live-birth and 63.7% of them are spontaneous terminations. Reported pregnancy termination is higher among women using contraceptives, consistent with expectations. Very low levels of reported PT in some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, suggests possible underreporting. Differential patterns emerging from cluster analysis and regional rates indicate high rates of pregnancy termination driven by induced abortion in countries from the Former Soviet Union and Asian countries with liberal laws. Most countries with restrictive abortion laws have low levels of reported termination. While the probabilities of pregnancy termination are higher at older ages, termination rates generally peak at younger ages due to higher conception rates. Discussion: This is the first large comparative study of the patterns of reported pregnancy termination in DHS surveys. While we have explored the extent to which differences arise from spontaneous terminations or induced abortion, more research is needed regarding the determinants of reported pregnancy termination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Unmet need for contraception is defined as the proportion of fertile individuals who do not use contraceptives despite wanting to space or limit their childbearing. Studies show that immigrant women in Europe, have higher rates of unintended pregnancies and abortion than native born women. Somali women, have the highest fertility rate in Norway which is much higher than the total fertility rate in Norway (4.0 vs. 1.7). This study investigates the unmet need for contraception among Somali immigrant women in Oslo, Norway, compared to their original population in Mogadishu, Somalia. Methods: A community based, cross sectional study was carried out among Somali women in Oslo (N = 228) and Mogadishu (N = 229) from May to December 2018. Pre-structured questionnaires were given to women who were recruited through snow-ball sampling. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 25. We performed a chi-square test for the analyses of categorical variables, a t-test for continuous variables and multivariate logistic analysis to determine the association between exposure and outcome variable. Results: The unmet needs for contraception among Somali women in Oslo was 20.2%, which is similar to unmet needs for contraception of women in many sub-Saharan African countries. The unmet needs for Somali immigrant women in Oslo (20.2) is two times lower than that of their original population in Somalia (48.5). The odds of having unmet needs for contraception was nearly, three times higher among Somali women in Mogadishu compared to those in Oslo (OR: 2.6, CI: 2.56–7.68). The mean intended fertility was 4 among the women in Oslo and 10.8 in Mogadishu. About 13.4% of study participants in Oslo and 86.6% of those in Mogadishu consider modern contraception irrelevant for women’s health. Nearly 50% of women in both places had unintended childbirth on one or more occasion. Conclusion: The study results show the prevalence of unmet needs for contraception among Somali immigrant women Oslo, is 4 fold higher than that of Norway (20.2 vs 5.5). Information Education Communication to both men and women, may reduce the high unmet need for contraception and also improve partner communication on family planning among Somali immigrants in Oslo. Training primary health providers for provision of tailored information about the modern contraception to immigrant women, which includes an individualized counselling may improve partners’ knowledge, demand and uptake of modern contraception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The causes of disappearance of the Neanderthals, the only human population living in Europe before the arrival of Homo sapiens, have been debated for decades by the scientific community. Different hypotheses have been advanced to explain this demise, such as cognitive, adaptive and cultural inferiority of Neanderthals. Here, we investigate the disappearance of Neanderthals by examining the extent of demographic changes needed over a period of 10,000 years (yrs) to lead to their extinction. In regard to such fossil populations, we inferred demographic parameters from present day and past hunter-gatherer populations, and from bio-anthropological rules. We used demographic modeling and simulations to identify the set of plausible demographic parameters of the Neanderthal population compatible with the observed dynamics, and to explore the circumstances under which they might have led to the disappearance of Neanderthals. A slight (<4%) but continuous decrease in the fertility rate of younger Neanderthal women could have had a significant impact on these dynamics, and could have precipitated their demise. Our results open the way to non-catastrophic events as plausible explanations for Neanderthal extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) are a major source for many demographic and health indicators in developing countries. Although these indicators are well defined in the literature, using survey data to calculate some of these indicators has never been an easy task for data users. This paper presents the software, a user-friendly R package developed to calculate fertility indicators, such as the total fertility rate, general fertility rate, and age-specific fertility rates, and childhood mortality indicators, such as the neonatal mortality rate, post-neonatal mortality rate, infant mortality rate, child mortality rate, and under-5 mortality rate, from the DHS data. The package allows for national and subnational indicators. In addition, the package calculates sampling error indicators such as standard error, design effect, relative standard error, and confidence interval for each demographic indicator. The package can also be used to calculate the same indicators from other population surveys such as the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0–14), the middle-aged (aged 15–64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam’s trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively “young”. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The invasive dermestid khapra beetle, Trogoderma granarium, is an important pest of stored products that is subject to strict phytosanitary measures. In this study, we conducted a demographic analysis of this species at 30, 35 and 40°C, combining deterministic and stochastic approaches. The net reproductive rate, the intrinsic rate of increase, the finite rate of increase and the doubling time did not differ significantly between 30 and 35°C, while at 40°C we detected negative values of the intrinsic rate of increase and the doubling time. The Briere model fit the data well with respect to the intrinsic rate of increase. Females of roughly 63, 42 and 21 days old reached their maximum reproductive potential at 30, 35 and 40°C, respectively. The stochastic models of this study allowed for checking model fit and the characterization of the most suitable distribution for each component of the process. We expect these results to have bearing on the management of T. granarium since they could be combined with models related to international trade and climatic change, alerting specialists towards early detection strategies against this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strategy of the “Belt and Road” initiative aims not only to promote the cooperation and the development of economic trade, but also to boost the integration and development in multiple fields—especially in the field of health. This paper explores the health levels of member-states in the Belt and Road initiative from the perspective of regional differences and spatial patterns. Data from the 68 member-states in the Belt and Road initiative were selected from the statistical data on disease and socioeconomics in all countries from the 2015 publication by the World Bank and the World Health Organization. Health indicators that can reflect health levels of member states were selected. Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* were used to analyze the spatial clustering and hot/cold spots of the health status. After that a novel spatial statistical method “geographical detector” was used to analysis the spatial stratified heterogeneity of the selected health indicators. The result showed that the health level of the member states fluctuated around the world average and varied greatly within the member states. The health status of the member states showed spatial clustering, and the q-statistics of the geographical detector confirmed that the health status demonstrated statistically significant spatial heterogeneity for different continent the member states reside. In general, member states in Europe and Oceania demonstrated higher health status, while those in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and part of Middle East have lower health status. In particular, special attention should be paid to control communicable diseases in African member states. Different regions and member states face different kinds of health threats in various degrees. Member states should strengthen health cooperation between themselves and work closely with other countries to make the “belt and road” a healthy road. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Fertility desires of female and male partners in current relationships are often correlated. We examined the influence of HIV seropositive status of female and male partners on short-term fertility desires in Rakai, Uganda, a setting with high fertility and HIV infection rates. Methods: Participants were couples (15–49 years old) enrolled in the Rakai Community Cohort Study, from 2011 to 2013 (n = 2,291). Cohen’s kappa coefficient was used to measure the correlation of female and male partners’ short-term fertility desires (measured as ‘wanting a child in the next 12 months’), in both total sample and stratified serostatus groups. HIV serostatus and additional characteristics of female and male partners were included in Poisson regression models to estimate the rate ratios (RR) for each partner’s short-term fertility desires. Individual and partner characteristics included HIV status, partner HIV status, age in years, partner age in years, educational attainment, number of living children, community of residence, and socioeconomic status (SES). Results: Short-term fertility desires among female and male partners were moderately associated (Kappa = 0.37, p-value<0.001). The association was weakest among female sero-positive and male sero-negative couples (Kappa = 0.29, p-value<0.001). When adjusting for parity and other covariates in the model, women’s short-term fertility desires were significantly associated with their positive sero-status regardless of male partners’ sero-status (adjRR = 1.58, p<0.001 for F+M-; adjRR = 1.33, p = 0.001 for F+M+; in comparison with F-M-). Men’s short-term fertility desires were significantly associated with their positive sero-status, in addition to their female partners’ positive sero-status (adjRR = 1.23 with p-value = 0.022 for F-M+; adjRR = 1.42 with p-value<0.001 for F+M-; adjRR = 1.26 with p-value<0.001 for F+M+; in comparison with F-M-). When the differential effect of parity was included in the model, similar associations remained for both female and male partners when the number of living children was small, but largely reduced when the number of living children was large (3 or more). Conclusion: Female and male partners in couple dyads demonstrated moderate agreements about short-term fertility desires. The HIV seropositive status of female partners was most strongly associated with short-term fertility desires of both genders, and this association was even stronger for women who had few or no living children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have been conducted on the relationship between education as an indicator of human capital and economic growth in our country. However, there have been a few studies regarding the simultaneous impact of health capital and education indicators on the economic growth of the provinces up to now. In this regard, the present study examined the impact of human health indicators and educational expenditures on the economic growth of the provinces of Iran. In this study, the dynamic effect of health capital indicators and educational expenditure along with the performance of the capital assets ownership on the growth of the economies was examined using the panel data obtained from the provinces during the years 2005-2015 by employing the generalized method of moments. The study results indicate that the fertility rate with a coefficient of 0.39, life expectancy with a coefficient of 0.202, and growth of household health expenditures with a coefficient of 0.045 had a positive effect on the economic growth of the provinces. However, the mortality rate with a coefficient of 0.203 had a significant negative effect on the provinces economic growth during the years under study. It was also found that educational expenditures growth and performance of capital assets ownership had a significant positive effect on the economic growth of the provinces. The health capital and its indicators are a long-term investment that should be considered as an important priority by the policymakers of the country and provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan’s ongoing struggle with rapid ageing is well known. Fertility and migration policies have both been proposed as solutions to Japan’s ageing population. We used stock flow population models to estimate the impact of hypothetical fertility and migration policy interventions on measures of aging in Japan from 2015 to 2050. We evaluated policy models based on the Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) they produced at the specified end date. Start dates ranged from 2020 to 2030 to assess the time horizons of individual policies. Fertility policies were found to be highly time dependent and only slowed the rate of increase of OADR. It would require a Total Fertility Rate far above replacement levels to compensate for Japan’s already aged demography. Migration policy was less time dependent. However, such measures would require unprecedented, and ultimately unrealistic, volumes of migration over coming decades in order to reduce Japan’s OADR. Our results suggest that fertility and migration based policy responses will be unable to significantly reduce Japan’s OADR or reverse Japan’s ageing population within the next few decades. Japan should focus on activating its human capital through the prolongation of working lives, increasing participation, and improving productivity within the Japanese labour force to mitigate and adapt to the inevitable effects of ageing populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the practice of self-control in an organizational social dilemma when the stakes are large, using 47 years of vital census data from 18th century Sweden. From 1750 to 1800, eighty percent of Sweden lived in a simple-structure organization called a bytvång or village commons. The amount of resources a village family received was a function of their size. During this period, crop failures left the population facing starvation. Using autoregressive time-series modeling, we test whether the people of Sweden continued to take steps toward increasing the stress on the commons by marrying and birthing children or practiced self-control. We find evidence that the peasantry–with little education, archaic agricultural practices, strong barriers to abortion and infanticide, and pressures by the Church and State to procreate–were less likely to marry and birth children (in or outside of wedlock) when the quality of the previous year’s harvest was poor compared to when it was bounteous. Post hoc analyses support the idea that the reason behind declining fertility after a famine was human decision rather than human physiology. Our findings are consistent with the idea that human population growth is not a social dilemma called a collective trap–which has been the assumption for 50 years. Rather, human population growth may be an individual dilemma–suggesting that members of simple-structured organizations can unilaterally exercise self-control and manage resources through self-organizing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aim: In the past studies, few researchers have addressed the simultaneous effects of human capital in health and education indicators on the economic growth of the country, and especially, provinces of the country. Therefore, the current study examined the simultaneous effects of human capital in health and education indicators on the economic growth in Irans’ Provinces Materials and Methods: This was an applied, analytical, descriptive study, and the research community consisted of the country's provinces. The data were collected through documentary-library research and from the databases of Iran Office for National Statistics, and Central Bank; afterwards, they were analyzed via unit-root and chow tests, using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Eviews 9. Results: The results showed that each percent of rise in family health expenditure, fertility rate, and life expectancy increased the provincial economic growth by 0.033%, 0.71%, and 1.83% respectively. In addition, 1% rise in mortality rate decreased the provincial economic growth by 0.43%. Educational expenditure influenced the provincial economic growth by a coefficient of 0.08, and credit capital asset acquisition, by a coefficient of 0.048. Conclusion: Human capital is considered a long-term investment in health and education sectors which should be an important priority on the agenda of provincial policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Low birth rates and infertility are growing concerns for many countries. The Artificial Reproduction Act (ARA) was implemented in 2007 to better support the use of assisted reproductive technology (ART) in Taiwan. This study aims to examine trends in the use of ART and to determine impacts of the ARA on ART use. Method: This study used data from the Health Promotion Administration in Taiwan. We used auto-regression models to examine the recent trends (1998–2017) in fertility related indicators and the use of ART. An interrupted time series design and segmented linear regression models were applied to analyze the changes in number of ART treatment cycles and birth rates by ART following the ARA. Results: The number of births by ART has gradually increased, with an annual growth rate of 21.55%. The rate of births by ART increased from 0.86% in 1998 to 1.44% in 2007, and to 4.33% in 2016 (annual growth rate: 41.23%). We estimated a relative increase of 78.51% (95%CI: 46.13%, 110.90%) in the number of births by ART and a relative increase of 35.67% (95%CI: 18.87%, 52.47%) in rate of births by ART 5 years following the ARA was implemented. Conclusion: ART has been seen as an approach to improve fertility. Our analysis suggests that the ART use and births associated from ART use both increased in Taiwan following the implementation of ARA. This experience in Taiwan may offer important lessons for other countries that are facing low fertility challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Projections of fertility of HIV positive women as ART scales up are needed to plan prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services. We describe differences in exposure to pregnancy between HIV positive and HIV negative women by age, region and national ART coverage to evaluate the extent to which behavioural differences explain lower fertility among HIV positive women and assess whether exposure to pregnancy has changed with antiretroviral treatment (ART) scale-up. Methods: We analysed 46 nationally representative household surveys in sub-Saharan Africa conducted between 2003 and 2015 to estimate risk of exposure to recent sex and pregnancy of HIV positive and HIV negative women by age using a log binomial model. We tested for regional and urban/rural differences and associations with national ART coverage. We estimated an adjusted fertility rate ratio of HIV positive to HIV negative women adjusting for differences in exposure to pregnancy. Results: Exposure to pregnancy differs significantly between HIV positive and negative women by age, modified by region. Younger HIV positive women have a higher exposure to pregnancy than HIV negative women and the opposite is true at older ages. The switch occurs at 25–29 for rural women and 30–34 for urban women. There was no evidence that exposure to pregnancy of HIV positive women have changed as national ART coverage increased. The inferred rate of fecundity of HIV positive women when adjusted for differences in exposure to pregnancy were lower than unadjusted fertility rate ratios in women aged 20–29 and 20–24 in urban and rural areas respectively varying between 0.6 and 0.9 over regions. Discussion: The direct effects of HIV on fertility are broadly similar across ages, while the dramatic age gradient that has frequently been observed is largely attributable to variation in relative sexual exposure by age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examine the inequality in the dynamics of the total fertility rate within 21 sub-Saharan African countries by wealth quintiles. We also examine the associated inequality within each country in the proximate determinants of fertility–marriage, contraception, and breastfeeding. Applying Bongaarts’ proximate determinants of fertility framework, for 14/21 countries we analyze, we find that those in the richest wealth quintiles have had a more rapid decline in fertility rates than those in the poorest wealth quintiles. The rapid decline for those in the richest wealth quintiles is attributable to delayed marriage and modest increases in contraceptive use. Although the poorest lag in fertility decline, postpartum abstinence and breastfeeding are the most important factors for them for fertility regulation. Further encouraging maternal health programs that focus on natural methods of fertility regulation will work in favor of the poorest in sub-Saharan Africa in moving through the demographic transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Almost 80% of the 4 billion projected increase in world population by 2100 comes from 37 Mid-African Countries (MACs), caused mostly by slow declines in Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Historically, TFR has declined in response to increases in wellbeing associated with economic development. We show that, when Infant Survival Rate (ISR, a proxy for wellbeing) has increased, MAC fertility has declined at the same rate, in relation to ISR, as it did in 61 comparable Other Developing Countries (ODCs) whose average fertility is close to replacement level. If MAC ISR were to increase at the historic rate of these ODCs, and TFR declined correspondingly, then the projected world population in 2100 would be decreasing and 1.1 billion lower than currently projected. Such rates of ISR increase, and TFR decrease, are quite feasible and have occurred in comparable ODCs. Increased efforts to improve the wellbeing of poor MAC populations are key. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grandmothers provide key care to their grandchildren in both contemporary and historic human populations. The length of the grandmother-grandchild relationship provides a basis for such interactions, but its variation and determinants have rarely been studied in different contexts, despite changes in age-specific mortality and fertility rates likely having affected grandmotherhood patterns across the demographic transition. Understanding how often and long grandmothers have been available for their grandchildren in different conditions may help explain the large differences between grandmaternal effects found in different societies, and is vital for developing theories concerning the evolution of menopause, post-reproductive longevity, and family living. Using an extensive genealogical dataset from Finland spanning the demographic transition, we quantify the length of grandmotherhood and its determinants from 1790–1959. We found that shared time between grandmothers and grandchildren was consistently low before the demographic transition, only increasing greatly during the 20th century. Whilst reduced childhood mortality and increasing adult longevity had a role in this change, grandmaternal age at birth remained consistent across the study period. Our findings further understanding of the temporal context of grandmother-grandchild relationships, and emphasise the need to consider the demography of grandmotherhood in a number of disciplines, including biology (e.g. evolution of the family), sociology (e.g. changing family structures), population health (e.g. changing age structures), and economics (e.g. workforce retention). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lactation records from 396,534 pedigree Holstein and Holstein-Friesian primiparous cows from 6,985 UK milk recorded herds, calving for the first time during the period between the 1st of January 2006 and the 31st of December 2008, were examined in order to determine the associations between age at first calving (AFC) and subsequent production, udder health, fertility and survivability parameters. Heifers were grouped by AFC into single month classes ranging from 21 to 42 months. Mixed effects multivariable regression modelling was used for data analysis. Mean and median AFC were 29.1 and 28 months respectively. Within the study, only 48,567 heifers (12.3% of the studied population) calved for the first time at 24 months of age or younger. 162,157 heifers (40.9%) were 30 months or older at their first calving. An increased AFC was associated with increased first lactation milk, fat and protein yields. The lowest predicted mean 305-day yield (6,617kgs; 95% confidence interval (CI): 6,546–6,687 kgs) was recorded for the 21 month AFC class, significantly lower than any other class. The 36 month AFC class had the highest predicted mean (7,774 kgs; 95% CI: 7,737–7,811 kgs). However, an increased AFC was also associated with increased calving interval and increased first lactation somatic cell count (SCC). Animals calving at 21 months had a predicted mean lactation SCC of 72,765 (95% CI: 68427–77378). Animals calving at 36 months of age had a predicted mean lactation SCC of 86,648 (95% CI: 84,499–88,853). Importantly, an increased AFC was also associated with decreased lifetime daily milk yield and decreased likelihood of calving for a second successive time. Animals calving at 22 months of age had a predicted mean daily lifetime milk yield of 15.24 kgs (95% CI: 15.06–15.35); animals calving at 36 months of age had a predicted mean daily lifetime milk yield of 12.83 kgs (95% CI: 12.76–12.91). Our results highlight the importance of achieving a lower age at first calving which was here associated with improved udder health, increased lifetime daily milk yield, improved reproductive performance and increased likelihood of calving for a second time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Births outside marriage (BoM) account for around 15% of all births globally. However, the distribution around the world is very uneven, as are cultural and political attitudes towards them. Studies from East Asia have shown that the percentage of such births is very low, with only modest increases in recent years. The orthodox demographic view holds that the maintenance of conservative views around the relationship between marriage and childbearing can play a role in keeping fertility low. Prenuptial pregnancies (PNP) (where births occur within eight months of marriage) have been identified as a growing phenomenon in Japan, possibly being an ‘alternative’ Asian pathway to family formation. As yet, no comprehensive statistical analysis of the trends of BoM or PNP has been performed for Hong Kong. Using a comprehensive microdata set of birth registration in Hong Kong from 1984–2015 (N = 1,680,831) we provide evidence of recent trends in such ‘alternative pathways’ to family formation and examine predictors through regression analysis. Our results indicate, in common with elsewhere in East Asia, low overall period rates of either BoM or PNP (although the latter has risen notably in recent years). While more recent birth cohorts exhibit higher prevalence of such births, their incomplete nature and higher expected propensity suggests that the figures are exaggerated. In our regression analysis, we find that lower educational attainment is a strong predictor of both BoM and PNP, suggesting that a bifurcation of experience may be occurring. This adds further evidence to the theory that the maintenance of traditional family formation systems in the context of revolutionised educational and work opportunities for women mean that the opportunity costs of the ‘marriage package’ become too high. Current disparities in rights and privileges between married and unmarried parents–and especially their children–means that targeted family planning services and support for vulnerable families are policy priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cleistogamy refers to a type of sexual breeding system with closed flowers. Cleistogamous flowers shed their pollen before flower opening, which leads to autogamy. Two SNPs in the open reading frame region of the Cly1 gene are associated with floral type. In the present study, we investigated the floral type of 436 barley accessions. Molecular markers were developed to genotype these barley accessions based on the two SNPs in the Cly1 gene region. The molecular markers explained floral type in 90% of the accessions. The Cly1 gene was sequenced in accessions with inconsistent genotype and phenotype. Thirteen SNPs were detected with ten new SNPs in the gene region. We further investigated whether floral type was associated with temperature stress tolerance in four field trials. One site experienced frost stress with a minimum temperature of -3.4°C during flowering. Grain fertility rates as low as 85% were observed at this site but ranged from 92–96% at the other three sites. The relationship between grain fertility rate and floral type under temperature stress was inconclusive. Some lines with higher grain fertility rates were identified under frost stress, and would be useful for frost stress studies in barley. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A country’s total fertility rate (TFR) depends on many factors. Attributing changes in TFR to changes of policy is difficult, as they could easily be correlated with changes in the unmeasured drivers of TFR. A case in point is Australia where both pronatalist effort and TFR increased in lock step from 2001 to 2008 and then decreased. The global financial crisis or other unobserved confounders might explain both the reducing TFR and pronatalist incentives after 2008. Therefore, it is difficult to estimate causal effects of policy using econometric techniques. The aim of this study is to instead look at the structure of the population to identify which subgroups most influence TFR. Specifically, we build a stochastic model relating TFR to the fertility rates of various subgroups and calculate elasticity of TFR with respect to each rate. For each subgroup, the ratio of its elasticity to its group size is used to evaluate the subgroup’s potential cost effectiveness as a pronatalist target. In addition, we measure the historical stability of group fertility rates, which measures propensity to change. Groups with a high effectiveness ratio and also high propensity to change are natural policy targets. We applied this new method to Australian data on fertility rates broken down by parity, age and marital status. The results show that targeting parity 3+ is more cost-effective than lower parities. This study contributes to the literature on pronatalist policies by investigating the targeting of policies, and generates important implications for formulating cost-effective policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to understand trends in global fertility from 1950-2010 though the analysis of age-specific fertility rates. This approach incorporates both the overall level, as when the total fertility rate is modeled, and different patterns of age-specific fertility to examine the relationship between changes in age-specific fertility and fertility decline. Singular value decomposition is used to capture the variation in age-specific fertility curves while reducing the number of dimensions, allowing curves to be described nearly fully with three parameters. Regional patterns and trends over time are evident in parameter values, suggesting this method provides a useful tool for considering fertility decline globally. The second and third parameters were analyzed using model-based clustering to examine patterns of age-specific fertility over time and place; four clusters were obtained. A country’s demographic transition can be traced through time by membership in the different clusters, and regional patterns in the trajectories through time and with fertility decline are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2014, Egypt’s Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) documented an increase in the total fertility rate (TFR) to 3.5, up from a low of 3.0 recorded by the 2008 EDHS. The increase has been anecdotally attributed to the social upheaval following Egypt’s January 2011 revolution, but little is known about when fertility first began to increase and among which sub-groups of women. Using birth histories from seven rounds of EDHS (1992–2014), this study reconstructed fertility rates for single years from 1990–2013 and examined patterns of childbearing in five-year birth cohorts of women. We found that the decline in fertility reversed in 2007, earlier than postulated, plateaued and then increased again in 2013. The increase in TFR coincided with a convergence of fertility rates across education levels, and there is evidence of a shift toward childbearing at younger ages among more educated women, which may be inflating period measures of fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolutionary studies often assume that energy is the primary resource (i.e. “currency”) at the heart of the survival-reproduction trade-off, despite recent evidence to the contrary. The evolutionary consequences of having a single trade-off currency versus multiple competing currencies are unknown. Using simulations, we modeled the evolution of either a single physiological currency between reproduction and survival, or of multiple such currencies. For a wide array of model specifications varying functional forms and strengths of the trade-offs, we show that the presence of multiple currencies (e.g. nutrients, time) generally results in the evolution of higher lifetime reproductive success through partial circumvention of such trade-offs. Evolution of the underlying physiology is also more highly contingent with multiple currencies. These results challenge the paradigm of a single survival-reproduction trade-off as central to life history evolution, suggesting greater roles for physiological constraints and contingency, and implying potential selection for evolution of multiple trade-off currencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]