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Copyright of Istorija 20. Veka is the property of Institute for Contemporary History and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Subject. The formation of new centers of global influence predetermines corresponding changes in the global balance of power. At the same time, the lack of real reforms of the global monetary system allows the United States to continue to set the rules of the game in the global economy, despite its increasing crisis potential. In this regard, there is a need to identify the driving forces capable of producing constructive changes in the global monetary order. Objective. A summary of the practice of using the US dollar to suppress global competition and maintain American superiority in international economic relations. Results. The control of the international monetary sphere by the country — hegemon of the world economy can be traced at all stages of the development of international economic relations (IER). Currently, the hegemonic country’s self-interest from issuing international liquidity, with non-resistance to such a policy on the part of all other IER participants, hinders the development of effective anti-crisis measures and worsens the general condition of the world economy. Scattered attempts to overcome the failures of global currency regulation at the local level (including through the use of digital technologies) seem to be ineffective, since they are not systemic in nature. Conclusions. A qualitative reform of the global monetary system is impossible without combining the efforts of the world’s largest economies to counter the destructive policies of the country that issues key international liquidity. Otherwise, the costs of financial crises become an insurmountable obstacle to the global economy entering a path of sustainable development.

This paper explores the origins of German banks' risk‐taking in the years preceding the 1931 crisis. The 1920s were marked by a large and prolonged increase in capital flows into Germany, chiefly from the United States and the United Kingdom. This coincided, at the individual bank level, with a rise in leverage and a fall in liquidity. We examine possible connections between the two phenomena. Our analysis is based on a combination of historiographical work and statistical modelling based on a newly hand‐collected bimonthly dataset on German reporting banks from 1925 to 1935. Bank by bank we examine the effects of foreign inflows on decisions related to leverage, lending, and liquidity. The Dawes Plan of 1924 and the relative absence of a too‐big‐to‐fail (TBTF) environment allow us to mitigate endogeneity concerns. We suggest that while capital inflows did not seem to impact banks' liquidity decisions, their impact on leverage was non‐negligeable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung Discussion Papers is the property of Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper augments the sparse literature on the inflationary impact of foreign debt in Brazil while addressing methodological caveats in previous studies. We depart from the linearity assumption and employ two nonlinear techniques: the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and a Markov Switching Regression (MSR) to investigate the connection between foreign debt and inflation within a multivariate framework. The analyses consider the presence of structural breaks via assessing variable stationarity using the Zivot and Andrew unit root test and incorporating a residual-based cointegration test proposed by Gregory and Hansen. Additionally, we apply a multiple structural breakpoints test by Bai and Perron to determine the presence of structural breaks in the impact of foreign debt on inflation. Our findings robustly indicate that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive effect, while the nominal effective exchange rate has a negative effect on inflation in both the short and long run. The NARDL model reveals that only positive changes in foreign debt have a statistically significant negative effect on inflation in the short run, whereas both positive and negative foreign debt changes significantly affect inflation in the long run. The results from the MSR model are generally consistent with those of the NARDL model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Indonesia's economic growth experiences unstable conditions from year to year, The study explores their impact on Indonesia's inability to overcome government spending problems by comparing three alternative sources of Indonesian state income to support economic growth, namely foreign debt, Sukuk, and bonds. Methods: The research uses a quantitative approach derived from secondary data in the form of time series data. Foreign debt has a negative effect on Indonesia's economic growth, while sukuk and bonds have a positive effect on Indonesia's economic growth. Results: The simultaneous result is 0.948, meaning that the independent variables (foreign debt, Sukuk, and bonds) have an influence and can be explained by 94.8% of Indonesia's economic growth. Meanwhile, the remaining 5.2% is explained by other variables that are not in this research. This indicates that the foreign debt sukuk and bonds variables have a big influence on Indonesia's economic growth in 2016-2023. Conclusion and suggestion: Foreign debt must be controlled properly by the state so that an economic crisis does not occur in Indonesia. Apart from that, the government must increase the issuance of sukuk and bonds to meet the needs of the deficit APBN.

This study aimed to analyze the impact of external debt on economic growth and inflation for emerging market economies for the period 1995-2020 using the panel data method. To this end, the study used the data on 12 countries listed in the Morgan Stanley Capital Index (MSCI) Emerging Markets Index. The results of the panel cointegration analysis showed that changes in external debt stock affect economic growth in the opposite direction and inflation rate in the same direction. According to the country-specific results of the panel cointegration analysis, external debt had a negative impact on economic growth in all countries except Mexico, Egypt, India, and Türkiye. External debt increased inflation in all countries except China, Egypt, India, South Africa, and Thailand. The Bootstrap panel causality test results showed a unidirectional causality from economic growth to external debt stock in China, India and Thailand, and a bidirectional causality in China. A unidirectional causality was also found from external debt stock to inflation in Colombia, and a unidirectional causality from inflation to external debt in China, India, Peru, and Thailand. Based on the cointegration analysis results, it is recommended that external debt should be used to finance more productive investments in order to ensure sustainable economic growth in Brazil, China, Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, Philippines, South Africa, and Thailand. The panel causality test results also showed that economic growth in China, India, and Thailand requires more external resources. Based on these results, it is recommended to reduce external debt in order to reduce inflation in Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, and Türkiye.

Introduction: Indonesia's economic growth experiences unstable conditions from year to year, The study explores their impact on Indonesia's inability to overcome government spending problems by comparing three alternative sources of Indonesian state income to support economic growth, namely foreign debt, Sukuk, and bonds. Methods: The research uses a quantitative approach derived from secondary data in the form of time series data. Foreign debt has a negative effect on Indonesia's economic growth, while sukuk and bonds have a positive effect on Indonesia's economic growth. Results: The simultaneous result is 0.948, meaning that the independent variables (foreign debt, Sukuk, and bonds) have an influence and can be explained by 94.8% of Indonesia's economic growth. Meanwhile, the remaining 5.2% is explained by other variables that are not in this research. This indicates that the foreign debt sukuk and bonds variables have a big influence on Indonesia's economic growth in 2016-2023. Conclusion and suggestion: Foreign debt must be controlled properly by the state so that an economic crisis does not occur in Indonesia. Apart from that, the government must increase the issuance of sukuk and bonds to meet the needs of the deficit APBN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to analyze the impact of external debt on economic growth and inflation for emerging market economies for the period 1995-2020 using the panel data method. To this end, the study used the data on 12 countries listed in the Morgan Stanley Capital Index (MSCI) Emerging Markets Index. The results of the panel cointegration analysis showed that changes in external debt stock affect economic growth in the opposite direction and inflation rate in the same direction. According to the country-specific results of the panel cointegration analysis, external debt had a negative impact on economic growth in all countries except Mexico, Egypt, India, and Türkiye. External debt increased inflation in all countries except China, Egypt, India, South Africa, and Thailand. The Bootstrap panel causality test results showed a unidirectional causality from economic growth to external debt stock in China, India and Thailand, and a bidirectional causality in China. A unidirectional causality was also found from external debt stock to inflation in Colombia, and a unidirectional causality from inflation to external debt in China, India, Peru, and Thailand. Based on the cointegration analysis results, it is recommended that external debt should be used to finance more productive investments in order to ensure sustainable economic growth in Brazil, China, Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, Philippines, South Africa, and Thailand. The panel causality test results also showed that economic growth in China, India, and Thailand requires more external resources. Based on these results, it is recommended to reduce external debt in order to reduce inflation in Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, and Türkiye. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of the article is to substantiate the measures regarding diplomatic support of the Ukraine's foreign public debt in the conditions of a critical budget deficit. The analytical basis of the proposals are the results of the assessment of trends in the development of international flows of debt capital and the world experience of diplomatic assistance to countries in the process of overcoming their debt crisis. It has been established that the process of international movement of loan capital, in which countries are active participants regardless of the economic development level, is characterized by dynamic trends of value growth. A critical factor in the growth of public debt in Ukraine is the decrease in the value of GDP and the inability to cover the budget deficit as a result of high military and social costs. It has been proved that the minimization of risks associated with the State's dependence on international borrowing is possible under the condition of effective diplomatic support of the external debt at all stages of its formation and maintenance. Ukraine has positive results of diplomatic debt support (favorable conditions for obtaining new loans, partial restructuring of existing debt). However, in the future, under conditions of preservation of current trends, the growth of foreign debt will pose a threat to the economic security of the State. Based on the analysis of alternative options for overcoming the debt crisis, the authors substantiate the expediency of Ukraine's diplomatic request to international creditors for preferential debt restructuring; active cooperation with foreign countries regarding mediation in interaction with international financial organizations in the direction of initiating special programs of financial support for Ukraine. Diplomatic support of foreign public debt should occur simultaneously with the further integration of Ukraine into the European Union, measures to stimulate economic growth in the country, which will contribute to increasing the international investment attractiveness and credit ratings of the national economy.

Copyright of Moneta e Credito is the property of Associazione Economia Civile and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Introduction/Main Objectives: This research aims to analyze the effect of internal factors, especially foreign debt, liquidity, and firm size, and also external factors, especially the exchange rate, on hedging decisions, with profitability as the control variable. Background Problems: Exchange rates are always affected by uncertainty. To ensure a company does not suffer losses, it will implement risk management, such as hedging. This is in accordance with the recommendation of the Ministry of SOEs to undertake hedging in the context of risk management. But in reality, not all state-owned enterprises do this. Novelty: This research adds profitability as a control variable, because this research does not involve the profit of the company, and focuses on how the company minimizes the risk of potential losses. Research Methods: The research used quantitative data, which is secondary data taken from the annual financial reports of state-owned enterprises listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2016 to 2020 period that are accessed through the website www.idx.co.id and the annual reports of state-owned enterprises that are accessed through their official websites. Data analysis techniques that were used are descriptive statistics test, multicollinearity test, and logistic regression test. Finding/Results: The results show a significant effect from foreign debt and firm size on the hedging decisions of state-owned enterprises in Indonesia, while liquidity and the exchange rate did not show a significant effect on the hedging decisions of state-owned enterprises in Indonesia. Conclusion: This research shows that state-owned enterprises in Indonesia focus more on their foreign debt and firm size, than their liquidity or the exchange rate, in their decision to hedge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an empirical, dynamic simultaneous equation model (DSEM) for Brazil with 22 equations and variables, we show that foreign income is a driver of economic growth besides semi-endogenous technical change. With a balance-of-payments constraint and endogenous terms of trade, the major mechanism is (i) world GDP driving exports, (ii) exports paying for imported capital goods, which (iii) enter a production function increasing output and the foreign-debt/GDP ratio and (iv) increase the endogenous labour force, and (v) slightly reduce human capital growth. The savings gap drives foreign debt and interest rates up and make the model unstable. Permanent increases of human capital increase the R&D/GDP ratio, labour-augmenting productivity, and GDP. A policy to increase the R&D/GDP ratio leads to more human capital, labour productivity and GDP levels. Both knowledge policies reduce the debt/GDP ratio. A lasting shock on the terms of trade reveals that there is no Harberger–Laursen–Metzler effect. The results hold in the presence of endogenous terms of trade, foreign debt, net foreign income, and net current transfers from abroad, and non-Walrasian (dis-)equilibrium variables: inflation and changing inventories for the goods market, and unemployment in the labour market. Policy should strengthen the weak link from R&D (research and development) to technical change and make education more attractive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study was conducted using comparative quantitative and qualitative analysis of World Bank and International Monetary Fund data for 1989-2020 and 2000-2020. Two-factor linear econometric models of economic growth in 11 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (depending on their exports and debt) were built on the basis of such analysis. The study also relied on data from the Pew Research Center's Spring 2019 Global Attitudes Survey regarding EU citizens' attitudes toward integration. The research findings were used to examine the causes and consequences of European integration for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Since 2004, when the first wave of EU enlargement took place, the combined weight of the economies of Central and Eastern Europe in relation to the EU has increased from 6.7% to 10.8% in 2020. On the other hand, none of the countries that have joined the EU have reached Europe-wide labor productivity. Assessment of the possible accession of other countries of the former eastern bloc revealed that Kazakhstan, where productivity in 2020 reached 58.4% of the average achieved in the EU, has the most enabling economic environment. In this context, Kazakhstan outperformed Bulgaria, where such a parameter amounted to 53.5%. During 1995-2000, the multiple of the ratio between the minimum and maximum levels of per capita GDP in the group of countries under study ranged from 6.3 to 7.7 times. Fifteen years after the first wave of accession to the EU, this figure has decreased to 2.5 times. Proposals to reduce regional economic inequality based on the econometric models have been developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nel volume La guerra capitalista, gli autori Brancaccio, Giammetti e Lucarelli (2022) sostengono che alle radici delle recenti tensioni internazionali vi siano gli imponenti processi di centralizzazione dei capitali che hanno caratterizzato l’ultimo trentennio, e la sempre più marcata tendenza del fenomeno a travalicare i confini degli schieramenti geo-politici. I paesi usciti vincitori dalla competizione sui mercati globali (in particolare Cina, paesi arabi e Russia) starebbero usando i saldi attivi in dollari accumulati negli anni scorsi per ‘scalare’ la proprietà dei capitali americani, e il governo degli Stati Uniti starebbe reagendo a questa minaccia con variegate restrizioni all’ingresso dei capitali stranieri nella proprietà dell’industria nazionale e con misure protezionistiche di politica commerciale. Secondo il punto di vista degli autori, questo conflitto economico starebbe generando una spirale di ritorsioni a catena, moltiplicando in tal modo il rischio di veri e propri conflitti militari. Questo modello interpretativo viene messo a confronto con le principali interpretazioni concorrenti circa il ruolo degli interessi materiali nella genesi dei conflitti militari, e si discutono alcune interessanti implicazioni dell’analisi rispetto al problema del design delle istituzioni di regolazione delle relazioni economiche internazionali.

This paper augments the sparse literature on the inflationary impact of foreign debt in Brazil while addressing methodological caveats in previous studies. We depart from the linearity assumption and employ two nonlinear techniques: the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and a Markov Switching Regression (MSR) to investigate the connection between foreign debt and inflation within a multivariate framework. The analyses consider the presence of structural breaks via assessing variable stationarity using the Zivot and Andrew unit root test and incorporating a residual-based cointegration test proposed by Gregory and Hansen. Additionally, we apply a multiple structural breakpoints test by Bai and Perron to determine the presence of structural breaks in the impact of foreign debt on inflation. Our findings robustly indicate that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive effect, while the nominal effective exchange rate has a negative effect on inflation in both the short and long run. The NARDL model reveals that only positive changes in foreign debt have a statistically significant negative effect on inflation in the short run, whereas both positive and negative foreign debt changes significantly affect inflation in the long run. The results from the MSR model are generally consistent with those of the NARDL model.

In a country, economic development is the process of how that country can develop. National development is carried out in order to achieve a developed country and make the people there prosperous. Economic development cannot be separated from a country, the process and impact reap many pros and cons in various ways. In its continuity, economic development will not occur without being accompanied by the provision of large capital funds. Often the government brings in funds or, let's say, borrows funds from foreign countries to support the success of economic development. As a result, foreign debt has piled up, hampering economic development. Foreign debt that occurs in developing countries, especially Indonesia, cannot be avoided. Foreign debt occurs due to various factors, one of which is limited human resources that are less effective, which indirectly forces a country to borrow funds from foreign countries because an ineffective workforce does not produce sufficient financial resources for economic development. From an Islamic legal perspective, foreign debt contains the element of usury, why is that because foreign debt always contains interest, in Islam anything that contains usury is clearly not permitted. Of course, the government, especially the Indonesian government, must pay attention to this matter.

This study intends to conduct empirical testing related to the effect of foreign debt, foreign direct investment, and inflation on economic growth in 7 ASEAN Countries during the period 2012-2020. The research method uses a quantitative approach with populations using Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. The data analysis technique uses panel data regression with skunder research data type. The results showed that partially foreign debt had a negative and significant effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, inflation also has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. However, simultaneously, foreign debt, foreign direct investment, and inflation affected economic growth in 7 ASEAN countries during the 2012-2020 period.

Introduction/Main Objectives: This research aims to analyze the effect of internal factors, especially foreign debt, liquidity, and firm size, and also external factors, especially the exchange rate, on hedging decisions, with profitability as the control variable. Background Problems: Exchange rates are always affected by uncertainty. To ensure a company does not suffer losses, it will implement risk management, such as hedging. This is in accordance with the recommendation of the Ministry of SOEs to undertake hedging in the context of risk management. But in reality, not all state-owned enterprises do this. Novelty: This research adds profitability as a control variable, because this research does not involve the profit of the company, and focuses on how the company minimizes the risk of potential losses. Research Methods: The research used quantitative data, which is secondary data taken from the annual financial reports of state-owned enterprises listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2016 to 2020 period that are accessed through the website www.idx.co.id and the annual reports of state-owned enterprises that are accessed through their official websites. Data analysis techniques that were used are descriptive statistics test, multicollinearity test, and logistic regression test. Finding/Results: The results show a significant effect from foreign debt and firm size on the hedging decisions of state-owned enterprises in Indonesia, while liquidity and the exchange rate did not show a significant effect on the hedging decisions of state-owned enterprises in Indonesia. Conclusion: This research shows that state-owned enterprises in Indonesia focus more on their foreign debt and firm size, than their liquidity or the exchange rate,in their decision to hedge.

Pakistan is grappling with a significant debt crisis and seeking assistance from the IMF and allied nations to alleviate the situation. This has aroused the interest of the academic community to understand the intricacies of the debt trap and explore potential solutions. This study examines how foreign debt affects the economic growth of Pakistan by analyzing selected macroeconomic variables for the period 1990-2020. The results of dynamic autoregressive distributed lag models show that Pakistan's economic growth performance is significantly and adversely impacted by debt servicing and exchange rate fluctuations. From the Granger causality results, it is evident that there is a neither unidirectional nor bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and foreign debt. This rejects the notion of a direct relationship between the two, as proposed by previous studies. The study also finds that foreign debt negatively affects the economic performance of Pakistan's economy via its effects on inflation, exchange rate and debt servicing. The paper offers useful policy recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capitalism has perpetuated class antagonism which breeds dissatisfaction amongst people in a bid to seek equality and justice in the distribution of power and economic resources. This study analyses International Trade and Imperial Precursors into the New Nigerian Economy in the 19th and 20th Century. Using data generated from secondary sources and descriptive analysis, it has been realized that the Nigerian economic elite play negative role in the economic dependency processes of the country. Finding also reveals that, Government policies in Nigeria are foreign oriented in nature, therefore, favoring foreign western economies at the detriment of Nigerian interest. The study conclude that there is a need to channel our energies to producing for internal needs and consumptions but these calls for a change in the values of principle of the indigenes, there are far too many acts of indiscipline and self-indulgence on the part of the generality of our people in all the starter of our society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capitalism has perpetuated class antagonism which breeds dissatisfaction amongst people in a bid to seek equality and justice in the distribution of power and economic resources. This study analyses International Trade and Imperial Precursors into the New Nigerian Economy in the 19th and 20th Century. Using data generated from secondary sources and descriptive analysis, it has been realized that the Nigerian economic elite play negative role in the economic dependency processes of the country. Finding also reveals that, Government policies in Nigeria are foreign oriented in nature, therefore, favoring foreign western economies at the detriment of Nigerian interest. The study conclude that there is a need to channel our energies to producing for internal needs and consumptions but these calls for a change in the values of principle of the indigenes, there are far too many acts of indiscipline and self–indulgence on the part of the generality of our people in all the starter of our society.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus outbreak came suddenly, devastating the health systems of other countries regardless of the financial condition of individual countries. And although at the end of 2019 it seemed that it would remain a problem in the Far East, the mechanisms related to globalization and human mobility meant that within a few weeks the strength and capabilities of almost the entire globe were exposed to a huge challenge—similar for every country. All of this took place at a time when analysts boldly predicted another financial crisis—at a time of raging economic processes. These, in turn, are closely related to the necessity to incur foreign debts—especially in the case of developing countries. Therefore, it seems reasonable to analyze the current information in this regard, based on the published data and the position of analysts in this problematic area. At the same time, it will be an introduction to further analyses in-depth with comprehensive data for the coming months.

La variabilidad de los flujos de capital está condicionada por factores externos, ligados al desempeño de las economías, pero también a factores internos vinculados con las políticas de atracción de capitales externos, por lo que, durante las últimas décadas, los comportamientos de los flujos de capital se han convertido en un elemento importante para pronosticar el desempeño económico de los países, lo cual ha motivado realizar mayores y mejores esfuerzos para comprender su dinámica e identificar sus principales determinantes para aprovechar sus beneficios y controlar sus riesgos de manera más efectiva posible. El artículo tiene como objetivo identificar y analizar los principales factores que explican las variaciones de los flujos de capital en el contexto de la economía ecuatoriana durante el periodo 1990 - 2020, tales determinantes, acorde a la literatura, la evidencia empírica y los datos disponible son el producto interno bruto, el riesgo país, las reservas internacionales, la inversión extranjera directa, las exportaciones y la deuda externa. Mediante la estimación de un modelo de regresión lineal multivariante para series temporales, usando el método de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios, se determina que el producto interno bruto, las reservas internacionales y la inversión extranjera directa tienen un efecto positivo y el riesgo país un efecto negativo, estadísticamente significativos, sobre los flujos de capital. Como es evidente, los flujos de capital en el Ecuador están determinados por factores endógenos y exógenos que promueven la entrada y, por otro lado, fomentan la salida de los capitales de la economía.

The collapse of the USSR pushed Ukraine for pursuing a policy aimed at expanding cooperation with Western countries. Ukraine placed great emphasis on economic cooperation with the EU and United States, as well as financial assistance from Western countries and international financial organizations, primarily the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Such interest in collaborating with the IMF was driven by the needs of the Ukrainian economy to solve current social and economic problems, maintain the political stability for the elites in power. The increased focus of the Ukrainian side on external financial assistance related to the Ukraine failure to address economic challenges, appeared after the collapse of the USSR, and initiate a new foreign economic policy. The inefficiency of the economy was aggravated by clear-cut governmental policy deficiency. At the same time, Ukraine continued to open up the country to Western capital. This weakened Ukraine’s position on world markets, negatively affected its economic potential. Hence, Ukraine went in for cooperation with the IMF to gain financial assistance and tackle its economic problems. On the other hand, the IMF showed great attention to Ukraine, granting funds to Ukraine as a part of cooperation programs but setting economic conditions and political demands. The ongoing borrowing policy has led to Ukraine foreign debt increase, triggering the dependence of the Ukrainian authorities on the IMF. In recent years, under the new President of Ukraine V. Zelensky, Ukraine has proceeded with the policy of cooperation with the IMF.

Abstract: This research was conducted to determine the effect of taxes, Sukuk, grants, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and the network of Islamic bank offices on Indonesia's economic growth. Research data for each variable is monthly from 2009-2018. Data analysis variables use Error Correction Model (ECM) Test and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) Test with Eviews ver.10. The results showed that in the short and long term, variables taxes, Sukuk, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and office networks of Islamic banks) affected the Indonesian economic growth. At the same time, grants have no significant effect on economic growth. For variable predictions in the next year (2019), only economic growth, grants, inflation, foreign debt, and network of Islamic bank offices can be predicted. Meanwhile, taxes, Sukuk, and total financing cannot be identified in 2019 because the variables are not significant in the ARCH analysis, so it cannot be diagnosed about future values. This result implies that the government and the community must continue to work together to manage state revenues used to fund productive projects to stimulate economic growth. Abstrak: Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh pajak, sukuk negara, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Data penelitian setiap variabel berupa bulanan dari tahun 2009-2018. Uji variabel penelitian menggunakan Uji Error Correction Model (ECM) dan Uji ARCH menggunakan Eviews ver.10. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, variabel pajak, sukuk negara, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Sedangkan variabel hibah tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk prediksi variabel di tahun berikutnya (tahun 2019), hanya variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri dan jumlah jaringan kantor bank syariah yang dapat diprediksi, sedangkan pajak, sukuk negara, dan jumlah pembiayaan tidak dapat diketahui nilai perkembangannya di tahun 2019 karena variabel tersebut tidak signifikan pada analisis ARCH. Sehingga tidak dapat di diagnosa dalam bentuk ARCH untuk dilakukan forecast data agar diketahui tentang nilai di masa yang akan datang. Implikasi dari temuan ini adalah diperlukan upaya yang berkesinambungan dari pemerintah dan masyarakat dalam mengelola penerimaan negara yang dimanfaatkan untuk mendanai proyek yang produktif sehingga dapat mempercepat pertumbuhan ekonomi.

The first ever Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum in October 2019 demonstrates not only interest of both sides in developing bilateral cooperation, but also has every chance of becoming a turning point in translating words into action. Due to advantageous geographical position, dynamic economic development and its role as a transport, logistics and financial center in East Africa, Kenya is justifiably considers as an "entry point" to the African market for foreign companies. At present, Russia's economic presence in this country is extremely limited, and therefore, when developing an effective strategy for promoting the market in Kenya, it seems advisable to study the practical experience of other major players, both to find "keys to success" and to identify potential risks. Russia's economic presence in the country has been very limited so far, thereby learning from the practical experience of other major players would be useful for developing an effective strategy to enter the Kenyan market, both to find "keys to success" and to identify potential risks. The reason why the Chinese experience was chosen as the subject of study is the China's rapid uptake to become one of Kenya's key partners. Thus, the purpose of this study is to develop recommendations for Russian companies to enter the African market based on the experience of the Chinese economic presence in Kenya.The article analyzes in detail three key areas of Chinese economic activity in Kenya, i.e. foreign trade, infrastructure development and credit financing, as well as linkages between them. The author argues that the willingness of China to implement projects that are in line with the current Kenya`s development agenda was an important factor in the large-scale increase of cooperation. Thus, China's activities are not only aimed at stimulating the export of Chinese goods and services, as well as increasing its geopolitical weight in the region, but also are supporting for Kenya's industrialization, modern and reliable infrastructure development. The Mombasa-Nairobi railway, the largest project involving Chinese companies in Kenya, is used as an example with regard to typical problems that foreign companies may face in Kenya, including media pressure. Based on the analysis of current trends, the author concludes that the further development of bilateral cooperation will depend to a great extent on the commitment from both sides to gradually change the priority areas of cooperation and to use new tools and mechanisms of interaction.

The main objective of this paper is to verify the effect of foreign debt on economic growth in sub-Saharan African sub-regions from 1980 to 2017. The paper applies the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) with robust standard deviations using the Lewbel’s estimator (2012). Results indicate that foreign debt significantly enhances growth in four zones (SADC, EAC, CEMAC and ECOWAS) with different bearable thresholds. This seems to suggest that creditors may be aware that countries do not exceed their bearable threshold at least at regional level.

Sermaye birikimi kısıtlı az gelişmiş veya gelişmekte olan ülkeler ekonomik gelişimlerini sürdürebilmek amacıyla yabancı sermayeye yoğun biçimde ihtiyaç duyarlar. Bu türden sermaye akımları, söz konusu ülkelerin makroekonomik dengeleri üzerinde birtakım etkiler oluştururlar. Merkez Bankası ödemeler bilançosu istatistikleri incelendiğinde, uluslararası sermaye akımları, finans ana hesabı altında; doğrudan yatırımlar, portföy yatırımları ve diğer yatırımlar olmak üzere üç alt başlık içerisinde yer almaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı ise uluslararası sermaye akımlarından yalnızca doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile diğer yatırımlar alt başlığı içerisinde yer alan dış borçların Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesi üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmak ve elde edilen sonuçlarla literatüre katkı sağlamaktır. Çalışmada ARDL zaman serisi yöntemi kullanılmıştır. 1998Q1-2017Q4 dönemleri arası çeyrek yıllık verilerin kullanıldığı çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar, uzun dönemde kamu tarafından gerçekleştirilen dış borçlanmaların, Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesi üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiki bakımdan anlamlı bir etki oluşturduğunu göstermiştir. Özel sektör dış borçlanmaları ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ise ekonomik büyüme üzerinde istatistiki bakımdan anlamsız bir etki oluşturduğu görülmüştür.

This paper aims to find out how far the types of governance - democratic and military regimes and macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, inflation rate - founded in purchasing power parity theory, and foreign debt and foreign reserves - founded in the balance of payment theory, act as determinants of the exchange rate in Pakistan. The time period covered by this paper encompasses from 1971 to 2019 where annual (year-end) data has been used. A nominal (dummy) variable has been incorporated for the type of government with a benchmark of the democratically elected government. Maintaining a fair level exchange rate is a point of concern for policymakers all over the world. This is for the reason that the foreign exchange rate not only affects exports and imports - the balance of payment, but also can influence the inflation in the country. Pakistan being a net importing country can witness that after 2018 a great deal of inflation is caused by a drastic depreciation of PKR. High foreign exchange reserves and a low level of foreign debt can get a country better financial standing in the global financial fraternity and can get better risk rating from international rating agencies spurring high foreign direct investment and low-cost borrowing from multilateral agencies. Eviews software was used to run regression and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) with Bound test to understand the short-and long-term relationships. We find that the exchange rate remains relatively stable during military regimes. Interest rate positive and insignificant; inflation rate negative but insignificant; foreign reserves negative and significant; and foreign debt positive and significant determinants of the exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to analyze the effect of imports, foreign exchange reserves, foreign debt, and interest rates on the currency exchange rates against the United States Dollar in Southeast Asia countries. The study results found that from 2010 to 2017, the currency exchange rates against the United States Dollar in Southeast Asian countries tended to weaken (depreciate). The highest growth in the exchange rate against the United States dollar was in Indonesia, while the lowest was in Singapore. Foreign exchange reserves negatively affect foreign debt, and imports positively affect countries' exchange rates in the Southeast Asia region against the United States dollar. On the other hand, interest rates do not show a significant effect.

This study examines the effect of foreign debt on the economic growth of Nigeria. Data for the study are collected from the World Bank and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The variables on which data are sourced include nominal gross domestic product, foreign debt stock, foreign debt servicing, inflation rate, and exchange rate. Nominal gross domestic product is the dependent variable while foreign debt stock and foreign debt servicing are the major explanatory variables. Inflation and exchange rates are used as the control variables. The scope of the study covers the period from 1997 to 2017 and data are analyzed using the ordinary least squares regression technique. The regression results indicate that foreign debt exerts a significant negative influence on economic growth while foreign debt servicing has a strong and significant positive impact on economic growth. The other factors are insignificant in explaining economic growth under this scenario. Thus, the study recommends a more purposeful borrowing pattern and revenue generation through profitable capital investments as the remedy for a foreign debt crisis in the country. The study also suggests a revival of abandoned industries as a more effective way of reducing foreign borrowing, creating employment opportunities and alleviating poverty in the country.

This study examines the effect of foreign debt on the economic growth of Nigeria. Data for the study are collected from the World Bank and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The variables on which data are sourced include nominal gross domestic product, foreign debt stock, foreign debt servicing, inflation rate, and exchange rate. Nominal gross domestic product is the dependent variable while foreign debt stock and foreign debt servicing are the major explanatory variables. Inflation and exchange rates are used as the control variables. The scope of the study covers the period from 1997 to 2017 and data are analyzed using the ordinary least squares regression technique. The regression results indicate that foreign debt exerts a significant negative influence on economic growth while foreign debt servicing has a strong and significant positive impact on economic growth. The other factors are insignificant in explaining economic growth under this scenario. Thus, the study recommends a more purposeful borrowing pattern and revenue generation through profitable capital investments as the remedy for a foreign debt crisis in the country. The study also suggests a revival of abandoned industries as a more effective way of reducing foreign borrowing, creating employment opportunities and alleviating poverty in the country.

The implementation of the PRC’s large-scale Belt and Road Initiative, which coversseveral dozen countries, has been going on for several years and allows us to make some preliminary assessments of its impact on bilateral economic cooperation between Kazakhstan andChina. The article analyzes the dynamics of key indicators reflecting the main directions of thiscooperation (trade, mutual investments, external debt of Kazakhstan to the PRC) in the periodfrom 2013, when the Silk Road Economic Belt project was announced, until 2018.An analysis of mutual trade between Kazakhstan and the PRC, as well as the main areas of investment cooperation, did not reveal a significant change in the volumes of the relevant parameters during the implementation of the initiative. Moreover, in almost all the considered areas, adecrease in the intensity of cooperation is observed, which is especially noticeable when analyzing the dynamics of relative figures. The article examines the causes of these trends, examinestheir international context, and also analyzes the differences in the Kazakh and Chinese data ofbilateral cooperation.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine a curvilinear effect of legislative constraints on foreign debt. Design/methodology/approach – A cross-sectional, time-series data analysis of 68 developing countries during the period from 1981 to 1999 was performed. Findings – Foreign borrowing is most likely to increase at both low and high levels of legislative constraints, while it is most likely to decrease at moderate levels. Originality/value – The paper is a first-cut empirical analysis of a curvilinear relationship between legislative constraints and foreign debt.

The purpose of this study is to examine and analyze the role of export and foreign debt mediation in the effect of exchange rate on foreign exchange reserves. And test and analyze the effect of exchange rate on exports, foreign debt and foreign exchange reserves and the effect of exports and foreign debt on foreign exchange reserves in Indonesian in 1999-2015. The type of research data is secondary data sourced from Bank Indonesian and Central Bureau of Statistics. Data analysis with path analysis using AMOS 18.0. The results of the analysis and discussion concluded that in the period of 1999-2015, export and foreign debt play a role mediate the effect of exchange rate on foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia. The significance test results conclude that the effect mediation of export and foreign debt is significant on foreign exchange reserves. Other results conclude that exchange rate has significant effect on export, foreign debt and foreign exchange reserves. Export and foreign debt have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves in Indonesian.

Economic policy of western developed countries is based on Washington agreement principles – liberalization, deregulation and privatization, with as little as possible participation of state in economic movements. Such policy is supported by the biggest financial institutions, from the World Bank, IMF, US Federal Reserve, European banks and other. Although such policy gave a range of bad results in practice, its basic postulates are still in power. On the other hand, global economic crisis lead to the fact that many highly developed countries have problems of high foreign indebtedness. This problem is even more complex in countries in development and, so called, transitional countries, where Serbia belongs, which, by the relation of foreing debt towards GDP belogns to a group of countries with an intermediate debt, according to the World bank’s criteria.

How did bankers make their investment decisions, for example to issue a state loan for a peripheral country? This in-depth case study investigates the question of the Greek loan of 1833, issued by Rothschilds. The main interest is to reconstruct James de Rothschild's risk perception and decision making process, expressed in the argumentation vis-à-vis his family. The significance of the guarantee of the protecting powers, which was without precedent, is considered by James as well as the competitive situation on the bond market, the relationship of the Rothschilds with leading politicians of the time, and the special significance of Greece in the period of intensive European philhellenism. The paper argues that in-depth studies of bankers' risk perception are necessary to illuminate the complexity of their decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We empirically investigate the dynamic relationship between debt and output in a panel of 72 countries over the period 1970–2014 using a vector autoregression. We document two puzzling empirical findings that contrast with what is predicted by a standard small open economy model by Aguiar and Gopinath (J Polit Econ 115(1):69–102, 2007), where debt and output endogenously respond to total factor productivity shocks. First, developing countries' debt falls after a positive output shock, while the model predicts a debt expansion. Second, output declines in developed and developing countries after a debt shock, while the model predicts higher output. The relationship between debt and output depends on the sector taking on debt (households, firms, or governments) and the source of financing (domestic versus external) and differs across countries with varying degrees of economic development or different exchange rate regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This study explores and compares short-run and long-run analyses of the validity of precautionary and mercantilist approaches to accumulation of foreign exchange reserves (FER) in Pakistan. Research Design & Methods: This study uses quarterly data from 1990 (1st) to 2015 (4th). The autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) test is used to check short-run and long--run analyses of the mercantilist and precautionary approaches for the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in Pakistan. Findings: The empirical results of the study reveal that Pakistan accumulates FER for a precautionary motive. The variables associated with precautionary motives are economically and statistically important in explaining FER accumulation. In contrast, variables linked to mercantilist motives are statistically significant, while insignificant economically for FER accumulation. Implications / Recommendations: In an underdeveloped economy like Pakistan's, a large volume of international reserves helps not only in handling exchange rate strategies, but also in pursuing macroeconomic policies such as: export promotion, development projects, repayment of foreign debt, maintaining employment opportunities, and improvement of the financial sector. Contribution: The econometric estimates show that Pakistan accumulates FER for a precautionary motive. The variables associated with precautionary motives are economically and statistically important in explaining FER accumulation. In contrast, variables linked to mercantilist motives are statistically significant, while insignificant economically for FER accumulation. These results are also true for most of the research studies, including on China, that we see in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are so many interesting phenopenone if we discuss of Indonesian economy especially at monetary sector. Foreign debt is one of several popular problem on developing countries like Indonesia. It is one of practice solution about saving debt to maintain the development process. The aim of this research is to analyse Indonesian foreign debt and How Islamic perspective views it. Analytical method used in this research is literature study. We used secondary data taken from BI, BPS, Kemenkeu, etc. The result of this research shows that foreign debt will be a boomerang when not properly managed by the government. In some cases, Indonesia's current foreign debt conditions do not conform to the norms taught by Islam. The implication is that the government needs a re-review of foreign debt to be more in line with Islamic norms which put forward the side of maslahat

There are so many interesting phenopenon if we discuss of Indonesian economy especially at monetary sector. Foreign debt is one of several popular problem on developing countries like Indonesia. It is one of practice solution about saving debt to maintain the development process. The aim of this research is to analyse some factors that affect foreign debt and their implications on Indonesian economy. Analytical method used in this research is explanatory method is to test hyphotesis about simultaneous relationship among variables that research by developing the characteristics of verificative research by doing some testing at every step of research. We used secondary data taken from BI, BPS, World Bank and IFS. The result of this research shows that ratio between domestic interest rate and international interest rate, government expenditure and national income did not affect significantly to foreign debt. Exchange rate affected positive and significantly to foreign debt

Liberalization and globalization tendencies having had domination in the world since the beginning of 1980s have facilitated the developing countries’ access to external sources. So, serious increases have been seen in the countries’ foreign debts. There is a common consensus in both theoretical and empirical literature that one of the reasons which lead to increase in foreign debts is defence expenditures. Based on this point of view, this study mainly aims at analyzing the relationship between foreign debts and defence expenditures as specific to Turkey by considering data of 1980-2016 period. In this regard, Toda-Yamamoto and Dolado-Lütkepohl (TYDL) tests have been utilized. Analysis findings indicate that defence expenditures are the reasons of foreign debts in Turkey.

The article discusses a simple method for estimating the probability of sovereign default function based on the determination of the key factors for the assessment of default and their weighting factors according to the statistics for the group of countries which past history contains the event. Pilot calculations are implemented for identifying the specified default functions for the two groups of countries - Ecuador, Argentina, Mexico and Thailand, South Korea and Russia. On the basis of these estimates specifics of defaults are revealed in the different regions of the world and in every country within these regions. The generalization of the proposed method is drafted for carrying out a large-scale applied research.

The article analyzes the problem of Russia foreign debt from the point of view of the world-system approach as a form of economic dependence. The debt dependence of Russia is revealed in increase in the foreign debt volume and its service and in the trend of negative net-transfer in favour of creditors. The author identifies the volumes of imperialist rent, which is passed by Russia to countries of the center in respect to foreign debt. It is pointed out that debt dependence is based on dependence in the field of production and trade, thus its overcoming is possible only with simultaneous overcoming of different forms of economic dependence.

This study assesses the influence of public debt on the condition of living in Nigeria using per capita income (PCI) which signifies the income per person in the country. Due to the fact that public debt is deemed to be suppressing an economy, the standard of living becomes the target of the estimated suppression. Thus, the study employs secondary data from 2000 to 2018 and multiple regression technique is used to carry out the analysis to establish the impact of public debt on PCI. The study finds that the foreign debt is having a substantial harmful effect on PCI while the domestic debt has a weighty favorable impact on PCI. These findings lead to a conclusion that the country is better off with local borrowing instead of external fund sourcing. Therefore, the study suggests that the government can borrow when it is highly necessary and really relevant to the accomplishment of a major capital project that will improve the income of the citizens, but the borrowing should be more domestic based and restricted to marketable securities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]