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This paper assesses the feasibility and welfare-improving potential of an insurance market for aged care expenses in Australia. As in many other countries, demographic dynamics coupled with an upward trend in costs of personal care result in consumer co-contributions imposing a risk of expenses that could constitute a significant proportion of lifetime savings, in spite of the presence of a government-run aged care scheme. We explore issues around the development of an insurance market in this particular setting, considering adverse selection, moral hazard, timing of purchase, transaction costs and correlation of risks, as well as such contextual factors as longevity and aged care cost determinants. The analysis indicates aged care insurance is both feasible and welfare-enhancing, thus providing a gainful alternative to the aged care reform proposed by the Productivity Commission in 2011. However, while the insurance market would benefit the ageing Australian population, it is unlikely to emerge spontaneously because of the problem of myopic individual perceptions of long-term goals. Consequently, we recommend regulatory action to trigger the market development.

This paper presents an analytical framework for examining changes in the Private Health Insurance rebate (PHIR) and the Medicare Levy Surcharge (MLS), and uses it to establish three key propositions. First, increases in the MLS rate tend to reduce the elasticity of demand for private health insurance. Second, simultaneously increasing MLS rates and thresholds has a theoretically ambiguous effect on PHI take-up rates. Third, means testing the PHIR can never increase PHI take-up, and will reduce it in some circumstances. The paper concludes with a discussion of the possible consequences of recently proposed policy changes to private health insurance in Australia.

This article focuses on the provision and financing of aged care in Australia. Demand for aged care will increase substantially as a result of population aging, with the number of Australians aged 85 and over projected to increase from 400,000 in 2010 to over 1.8 million in 2051. Meeting this demand will greatly strain the current system, and makes it important to exploit opportunities for increased efficiency. A move to greater beneficiary co-payments is also likely, though its extent may depend on whether aged care insurance and other forms of pre-payment can develop.