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The volcanic island of Ischia (southern Italy) represents an interesting challenge as far as both risk analysis and risk management planning (RMP) go; hence, it is detailed here as a study case. We analysed the strengths and weaknesses of the emergency plans brought forward following the August 2017 earthquake, elaborating and revising scientific information, and involving researchers and experts with very different competences and backgrounds (e.g. engineers, architects, geologists, volcanologists, sociologists and information science experts). In particular, the historical evolution of the emergency plans prior to this event was recollected; the social context, on the basis of both literature and new statistical results, was analysed; and the guidelines proposed and/or implemented in other similar contexts in the world were examined. This work analyses and discusses the results, and proposes models that are universally applicable. Indeed, the key factors necessary for a 3E (Effective, Efficient and Effectual) RMP have been identified and described. These factors must characterize the RMP of the island of Ischia – and, in general, of any volcanic island – in order to be able to manage the occurrence of an emergency in the best possible way.

Geothermal and volcanic systems are prone to gravity-induced slope instability at different scales. Endogenous magmatic, hydrothermal and seismic forcings can significantly modify rock mass rheology and perturb the local stress field and gravitational equilibrium, inducing shallow or slope-scale processes. The island of Ischia, which is part of the Phlegrean Volcanic District (Italy), is a remarkable example of this kind of complex interacting system. This study focuses on monitoring the hydrothermal system located beneath the ongoing slope-scale deformation, which involves Mt Nuovo (the western part of Mt Epomeo) and is a complementary effect of the resurgence of an ancient caldera. Debris and rock avalanches have affected the slopes of this volcanic island, in response to the renewal of volcanic activity and caldera resurgence. Large parts of the corresponding mass-wasting deposits overlay the most active areas of the Ischia hydrothermal system, where ongoing slope-scale gravity-driven deformation owing to a mass rock creep (MRC) process is still evolving. To investigate possible relations between the perturbing shallow hydrothermal system and the MRC process, thermal monitoring of selected groups of fumarolic emissions located in several portions of the deforming sector has been carried out since 2008 on a monthly basis by means of direct (thermal probes) and remote sensing (IR-thermography) techniques. Thermal monitoring of specific fumaroles reveals a peculiar seasonal trend characterized by a delayed inverse correlation with rainy periods and a short-term pulsating response to dry stages. The fumaroles also appear spatially correlated to the presence of MRC-related structures involving volcanic slopes. According to the measured thermal data, a conceptual model of the thermal interactions within the Mt Nuovo slope is provided, framing the potential role of thermal actions in accelerating the deformation process. In this view, possible chain effects, owing to magmatic or hydrothermal renovation, are depicted, delineating the most severe multihazard scenario consisting of an accelerating evolution of the MRC process towards paroxysmal collapse.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the surface temperature and the distribution of thermal signatures on Tuscany’s geothermal districts using data obtained through three separate surveys via satellite and an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The analysis considers the highest available spatial resolution ranging from hundreds of meters per pixel of the satellite thermal images and the tenths/hundreds of centimeters per pixel of the thermal images acquired by the UAV. The surface temperature maps obtained by satellite data acquired at suitable spatial resolution and the thermal measurements obtained by the thermal camera installed on the UAV were orthorectified and geocoded. This allowed, for example, following the evolution of thermal anomalies, which may represent a modification of the current state of the geothermal field and a possible hazard for both the population and industrial assets. Here, we show the results obtained in three field campaigns during which the simultaneous acquisition of Landsat 8 satellite and UAV (FlyBit octocopter, IDS, Rome, Italy) thermal data were analyzed. By removing the atmosphere contribution from Landsat 8 data, we have produced three surface temperature maps that are compared with the ground field measurements and the surface temperature maps elaborated by FLIR VUE PRO-R on the UAV.

On 21 August 2017, a shallow earthquake of Md 4.0 struck the CasamicciolaTerme village in the north of Ischia volcanic island (Italy). It caused two fatalities and heavy damage in a restricted area of a few square kilometers. Casamicciola Terme has been recurrently destroyed in the last centuries by similar volcano-tectonic earthquakes (1762, 1767, 1796, 1828, 1881, and 1883). After the catastrophic 1883 Casamicciola event (2343 casualties), this is the first heavy damaging earthquake at Ischia that provides, for the first time, the opportunity of integrating historical seismicity, macroseismic observations, instrumental information, and detailed mapping of coseismic geological effects. Soon after the 2017 mainshock we surveyed the epicentral area to collect data on the coseismic ground effects, recording more than 100 geological field observations. Mapped effects define a belt which closely follows the trace of the Casamicciola E-W-trending normal fault system, bounding the northern slope of Mt. Epomeo, previously known as a Latest Pleistocene to Holocene normal fault with a slip rate of ~3:0 cm=yr. We found significant evidence for coseismic surface faulting, testified by a main alignment of ruptures for a 2 km end-to-end length and normal dip-slip displacement of 1-3 cm. The geometry and regularity of the structural pattern, together with constant kinematics of the coseismic ruptures with the north side down, strongly suggest a primary tectonic origin for the mapped ruptures and strongly supports an E-W normal-faulting focal mechanism for the 2017 Casamicciola earthquake.Macroseismic information supports the notion that previous historical events also had a similar style of faulting.

Quiescent volcanoes dissipate a large part of their thermal energy through hot soils and ground degassing mainly in restricted areas called Diffuse Degassing Structures. La Solfatara crater represents the main spot of thermal release for the Campi Flegrei volcano (Italy) despite its reduced dimensions with regards to the whole caldera. The purpose of this study was to develop a method to measure thermal energy release extrapolating it from the ground surface temperature. We used imaging from thermal cameras at short distances (1 m) to obtain a mapping of areas with thermal anomalies and a measure of their temperatures. We built a conceptual model of the energy release from the ground to atmosphere, which well fits the experimental data taken in the La Solfatara crater. Using our model and data, we could estimate the average heat flux in a portion of the crater as q a v g = 220 ± 40 W / m 2 , compatible with other measurements in literature.

As far as the European continent, Region Campania in Southern Italy presents an almost unique combination - in terms of both variety and intensity-of potential risks for the residents: this densely populated area is actually most notably exposed to hydrogeological (flood and landslides), seismic, volcanic hazards In such a setting, alongside with an up-to-date scientific approach to risks analysis and the constant update of emergency plans, it is of paramount importance that a “risk awareness culture” should be developed by the residents. In order to maximize the effectiveness of the communication campaigns to support and improve such a culture, a study of risk perception has been carried out in 12 municipalities and 2 territorial unions of Campania Region. Different areas have been examined, the overall exposure of each almost always being characterised by a prevalent specific risk: seismic, volcanic, hydrogeological. The results of this surveys show that the historical memory has a crucial role on the hazards perception. It's also worth of noting that few communities consider that they have been sufficiently well-informed by civil protection agencies and/or authorities about the natural hazards specific to their area and the practical procedures for evacuation. To overcome these deficiencies emergency plans should be designed, developed and practised through the collaboration of all key stakeholders, from civil protection authorities to the residents communities.

Ischia is an active volcanic island in the Gulf of Naples whose history has been dominated by a caldera-forming eruption (ca. 55 ka) and resurgence phenomena that have affected the caldera floor and generated a net uplift of about 900 m since 33 ka. The results of new geomorphological, stratigraphical and textural investigations of the products of gravitational movements triggered by volcano-tectonic events have been combined with the information arising from a reinterpretation of historical chronicles on natural phenomena such as earthquakes, ground deformation, gravitational movements and volcanic eruptions. The combined interpretation of all these data shows that gravitational movements, coeval to volcanic activity and uplift events related to the long-lasting resurgence, have affected the highly fractured marginal portions of the most uplifted Mt. Epomeo blocks. Such movements, mostly occurring since 3 ka, include debris avalanches; large debris flows (lahars); smaller mass movements (rock falls, slumps, debris and rock slides, and small debris flows); and deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. The occurrence of submarine deposits linked with subaerial deposits of the most voluminous mass movements clearly shows that the debris avalanches impacted on the sea. The obtained results corroborate the hypothesis that the behaviour of the Ischia volcano is based on an intimate interplay among magmatism, resurgence dynamics, fault generation, seismicity, slope oversteepening and instability, and eruptions. They also highlight that volcano-tectonically triggered mass movements are a potentially hazardous phenomena that have to be taken into account in any attempt to assess volcanic and related hazards at Ischia. Furthermore, the largest mass movements could also flow into the sea, generating tsunami waves that could impact on the island’s coast as well as on the neighbouring and densely inhabited coast of the Neapolitan area.

The results of a detailed stratigraphic study, carried out in the areas located to the east and south-west of Mt. Epomeo at Ischia, are presented and compared with those of previous geological, archaeological and historical investigations to show the relationships among caldera resurgence, volcanism and slope instability in the past 5.5 ka. Resurgence at Ischia began at about 30 ka B.P. and occurred through intermittent uplifting and tectonic quietness phases. During the past 5.5 ka reactivation of faults and related volcanic activity was accompanied by emplacement of deposits generated by surface gravitational movements. These deposits were generated in four main phases, dated between 5.5 and 2.9 ka, around 2.9 ka, between 2.6 and 2.3 ka, and between 2.3 and 1.9 ka, respectively. Deposits formed by gravitational movements preceded and followed the emplacement of volcanic rocks, testifying that slope instability was induced by vertical movements, which also activated and/or reactivated faults and fractures that fed volcanism. The results of this study therefore suggest that, although slope failure can occur as a consequence of a variety of factors, resurgence has to be considered a factor inducing a particularly intense slope instability. Resurgence is accompanied by activation of faults and renewal of volcanism, causing oversteepening of the slopes and generating seismicity that could trigger surface gravitational movements. Furthermore, the availability of large amount of loose material, rapidly accumulated along the slopes during eruptions, favors landslide generation.

Ischia is the emergent top of a large volcanic complex that rises more than 1,000 m above the sea floor, at the north-western end of the Gulf of Naples. Caldera resurgence in the central part of the island has resulted in the formation of differentially displaced blocks, among which Mt. Epomeo (787 m a.s.l.) is the most uplifted. Deformation and slope instability have been recognised as common features induced by a block resurgence mechanism that causes uplift and favours gravitational loading and flank failure. The Monte Nuovo block, a topographic high on the north-western flank of Mt. Epomeo, has recently been interpreted as a block affected by deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. This block may undergo a catastrophic failure in the case of renewal of magmatic activity. This paper investigates the potential failure of the Monte Nuovo block as a rockslide-debris avalanche, the consequent tsunami generation and wave propagation, and discusses the catastrophic effects of such an event. Mobilization-prone volume has been estimated at about 160·106 m3 and would move from a maximum elevation of 400 m a.s.l. The landslide itself would sweep away a densely populated territory as large as 3.5 km2. The highest waves generated by the tsunami, on which this paper is mainly focussed, would hit the northern and western shores of Ischia. However, the high coast would prevent inundation and limit devastation to beaches, harbours and surrounding areas. Most of the tsunami energy would head towards the north-east, hitting the Campania coast. Severe inundation would affect an area of up to 20 km2 around the mouth of the Volturno river, including the urban area of Castel Volturno. In contrast, less energy would travel towards the south, and the Gulf of Naples would be perturbed by long persisting waves of limited damaging potential.

The structure and shape of collapses and resurgences is often controlled by pre-existing discontinuities, such as normal faults in rift zones. In order to study the role of extensional structures on collapse and resurgence, we used analogue models. Dry sand simulated the brittle crust; silicone, located at the base of the sand-pack, simulated magma. In the experiments, regional extension pre-dated collapse or resurgence, forming normal faults in a graben-like structure; the graben was filled with additional sand, simulating post-rift deposits. A piston then moved the silicone downward or upward, inducing collapse or resurgence within the previously deformed sand. The collapses showed an ellipticity (length of minor axis/length of major axis) between 0.8 and 0.9, with the major axis parallel to the extension direction. The partial reactivation of the pre-existing normal faults was observed during the development of the caldera reverse faults, which, conversely to what was expected (from experiments without pre-existing extension), became partly inward dipping. Resurgence showed an elongation of the uplifted part, with the main axis perpendicular to the extension direction. At depth, pre-existing normal faults were partly reactivated by the reverse faults formed during resurgence; these locally became outward dipping normal faults. A total reactivation of pre-existing faults was also observed during resurgence. The experiments suggest that the observed elongation of calderas and resurgences is the result of the reactivation of pre-existing structures during differential uplift. Such a reactivation is mainly related to the loss in the coefficient of friction of the sand. The results suggest that elliptic calderas and resurgences in nature may develop even from circular magma chambers.