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Evidence indicates that mRNA COVID-19 vaccination is associated with risk of myocarditis and possibly pericarditis, especially in young males. It is not clear if risk differs between mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2. We assessed if risk differs using comprehensive health records on a diverse population.Members 18-39 years of age at eight integrated healthcare-delivery systems were monitored using data updated weekly and supplemented with medical record review of myocarditis and pericarditis cases. Incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis events that occurred among vaccine recipients 0 to 7 days after either dose 1 or 2 of a messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine was compared with that of vaccinated concurrent comparators who, on the same calendar day, had received their most recent dose 22 to 42 days earlier. Rate ratios (RRs) were estimated by conditional Poisson regression, adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, health plan, and calendar day. Head-to-head comparison directly assessed risk following mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 during 0-7 days post-vaccination.From December 14, 2020 - January 15, 2022 there were 41 cases after 2,891,498 doses of BNT162b2 and 38 cases after 1,803,267 doses of mRNA-1273. Cases had similar demographic and clinical characteristics. Most were hospitalized for ≤1 day; none required intensive care. During days 0-7 after dose 2 of BNT162b2, the incidence was 14.3 (CI: 6.5-34.9) times higher than the comparison interval, amounting to 22.4 excess cases per million doses; after mRNA-1273 the incidence was 18.8 (CI: 6.7-64.9) times higher than the comparison interval, amounting to 31.2 excess cases per million doses. In head-to-head comparisons 0-7 days after either dose, risk was moderately higher after mRNA-1273 than after BNT162b2 (RR: 1.61, CI 1.02-2.54).Both vaccines were associated with increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis in 18-39-year-olds. Risk estimates were modestly higher after mRNA-1273 than after BNT162b2.

Background Hypotonic-hyporesponsive episode (HHE) after whole cell pertussis vaccination is a known adverse event. Less is known about the risk of HHE after administration of acellular pertussis vaccines. Methods Using parental interviews, this study actively surveyed for HHE among infants after doses 1 and 2 of acellular pertussis vaccine. Results We interviewed the parents of 52,531 infants. HHE was reported at a rate of 22.8 per 100,000 doses (95% CI: 11.8-39.9) of acellular pertussis vaccine, approximately 45 episodes per 100,000 children. Conclusions These rates are lower than HHE rates reported after whole cell pertussis vaccines and within the range of HHE rates reported in other studies of acellular pertussis vaccines.

We examined the effectiveness of maternal vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection in 30,288 infants born at Kaiser Permanente Northern California from December 15, 2020, to May 31, 2022. Using Cox regression, the effectiveness of maternal vaccination was 85% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 67, 93), 64% (CI: 43, 78) and 57% (CI: 36,71) during the first 2, 4 and 6 months of life, respectively, in the Delta variant period. In the Omicron variant period, the effectiveness of maternal vaccination in these three age intervals was 22% (CI: -18,48), 14% (CI: -10,32) and 12% (CI: -4,26), respectively. Over the entire study period, the incidence of hospitalization for COVID-19 was lower during the first 6 months of life among infants of vaccinated mothers compared with infants of unvaccinated mothers (21/100,000 person-years vs. 100/100,000 person-years). Maternal vaccination was protective, but protection was lower during Omicron than during Delta. Protection during both periods decreased as infants aged.

In children 39°C, acute otitis media, lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), or extra-pulmonary complications; otherwise, they were classified as mild. We used multivariable log-binomial models to assess whether M-S influenza disease was associated with increased healthcare utilization. Nearly half of the 1,105 influenza positive children were classified as M-S. Children 6–35 months had the highest proportion of M-S disease (35.1%), mostly due to LRTI (63.2%) and fever (44.6%). Children ≥6 months who had M-S disease were associated with a 1.6 to 2.8 times increased likelihood of having had an emergency department or any follow-up outpatient visits. Those who had M-S disease were associated with an increased likelihood of receiving antibiotics, with the highest likelihood in children 6–35 months (RR 9.0, 95% CI 4.1, 19.8). While more studies are needed, an influenza classification system may distinguish children with more clinically significant disease.

Background Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is a major cause of severe diarrhea. In this retrospective study, we identified CDI risk factors by comparing demographic and clinical characteristics for Kaiser Permanente Northern California members ≥18 years old with and without laboratory-confirmed incident CDI. Methods We included these risk factors in logistic regression models to develop 2 risk scores that predict future CDI after an Index Date for Risk Score Assessment (IDRSA), marking the beginning of a period for which we estimated CDI risk. Results During May 2011 to July 2014, we included 9986 CDI cases and 2 230 354 members without CDI. The CDI cases tended to be older, female, white race, and have more hospitalizations, emergency department and office visits, skilled nursing facility stays, antibiotic and proton pump inhibitor use, and specific comorbidities. Using hospital discharge as the IDRSA, our risk score model yielded excellent performance in predicting the likelihood of developing CDI in the subsequent 31–365 days (C-statistic of 0.848). Using a random date as the IDRSA, our model also predicted CDI risk in the subsequent 31–365 days reasonably well (C–statistic 0.722). Conclusions These results can be used to identify high-risk populations for enrollment in C difficile vaccine trials and facilitate study feasibility regarding sample size and time to completion.

Background Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is a major cause of severe diarrhea. In this retrospective study, we identified CDI risk factors by comparing demographic and clinical characteristics for Kaiser Permanente Northern California members ≥18 years old with and without laboratory-confirmed incident CDI. Methods We included these risk factors in logistic regression models to develop 2 risk scores that predict future CDI after an Index Date for Risk Score Assessment (IDRSA), marking the beginning of a period for which we estimated CDI risk. Results During May 2011 to July 2014, we included 9986 CDI cases and 2 230 354 members without CDI. The CDI cases tended to be older, female, white race, and have more hospitalizations, emergency department and office visits, skilled nursing facility stays, antibiotic and proton pump inhibitor use, and specific comorbidities. Using hospital discharge as the IDRSA, our risk score model yielded excellent performance in predicting the likelihood of developing CDI in the subsequent 31–365 days (C-statistic of 0.848). Using a random date as the IDRSA, our model also predicted CDI risk in the subsequent 31–365 days reasonably well (C–statistic 0.722). Conclusions These results can be used to identify high-risk populations for enrollment in C difficile vaccine trials and facilitate study feasibility regarding sample size and time to completion., Risk score to predict CDI after hospital discharge yielded excellent performance. Risk score to predict CDI after a random date performed reasonably well. Risk scores can be used to identify high-risk populations for C difficile trials.

INTRODUCTION: Childhood immunization schedules often involve multiple vaccinations per visit. When increased risk of an adverse event is observed after simultaneous (same-day) vaccinations, it can be difficult to ascertain which triggered the adverse event. This methods paper discusses a systematic process to determine which of the simultaneously administered vaccine(s) are most likely to have caused an observed increase in risk of an adverse event. METHODS: We use an example from the literature where excess risk of seizure was observed one day after vaccination, but same-day vaccination patterns made it difficult to discern which vaccine(s) may trigger the adverse event. We illustrate the systematic identification process using a simulation that retained the observed pattern of simultaneous vaccination in an empirical cohort of vaccinated children. We simulated “true” effects for diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis (DTaP) and pneumococcal conjugate (PCV) on risk of seizure the day after vaccination. We varied the independent and interactive effects of vaccines (on the multiplicative scale). After applying the process to simulated data, we evaluated risk of seizure one day after vaccination in the empirical cohort. RESULTS: In all simulations, we were able to determine which vaccines contributed to excess risk. In empirical data, we narrowed the association with seizure from all vaccines in the schedule to three likely candidates, DTaP, PCV, and/or Haemophilus influenzae type B (HiB) (p < 0.01, attributable risk when all 3 were administered together: 5 per 100,000). Disentangling their associations with seizure would require a larger sample or more variation in the combinations administered. When none of these three were administered, no excess risk was observed. CONCLUSION: The process outlined could provide valuable information on the magnitude of potential risk from individual and simultaneous vaccinations. Associations should be further investigated with independent data as well as biologically based, statistically independent hypotheses.

Purpose The need to develop methods for studying the safety of childhood immunization schedules has been recognized by the Institute of Medicine and Department of Health and Human Services. The recommended childhood immunization schedule includes multiple vaccines in a visit. A key concern is safety of concomitant (same day) versus separate day vaccination. This paper addresses a methodological challenge for observational studies using a self-controlled design to investigate the safety of concomitant vaccination. Methods We propose a process for distinguishing which of several concomitantly administered vaccines is responsible for increased risk of an adverse event while adjusting for confounding due to relationships between effect modifying risk factors and concomitant vaccine combinations. We illustrate the approach by re-examining the known increase in risk of seizure 7 to 10 days after measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination and evaluating potential independent or modifying effects of other vaccines. Results Initial analyses suggested that DTaP had both an independent and potentiating effect on seizure. After accounting for the relationship between age at vaccination and vaccine combination, there was little evidence for increased risk of seizure with same day administration of DTaP and MMR; incidence rate ratio, 95% confidence interval 1.2 (0.9-1.6), P value = θ.226. Conclusion We have shown that when using a self-controlled design to investigate safety of concomitant vaccination, it can be critically important to adjust for time-invariant effect modifying risk factors, such as age at time of vaccination, which are structurally related to vaccination patterns due to recommended immunization schedules.

PURPOSE The Institute of Medicine recommended conducting observational studies of childhood immunization schedule safety. Such studies could be biased by outcome misclassification, leading to incorrect inferences. Using simulations, we evaluated (1) outcome positive predictive values (PPVs) as indicators of bias of an exposure-outcome association, and (2) quantitative bias analyses (QBA) for bias correction. METHODS Simulations were conducted based on proposed or ongoing Vaccine Safety Datalink studies. We simulated 4 studies of 2 exposure groups (children with no vaccines or on alternative schedules) and 2 baseline outcome levels (100 and 1000/100 000 person-years), with 3 relative risk (RR) levels (RR = 0.50, 1.00, and 2.00), across 1000 replications using probabilistic modeling. We quantified bias from non-differential and differential outcome misclassification, based on levels previously measured in database research (sensitivity > 95%; specificity > 99%). We calculated median outcome PPVs, median observed RRs, Type 1 error, and bias-corrected RRs following QBA. RESULTS We observed PPVs from 34% to 98%. With non-differential misclassification and true RR = 2.00, median bias was toward the null, with severe bias (median observed RR = 1.33) with PPV = 34% and modest bias (median observed RR = 1.83) with PPV = 83%. With differential misclassification, PPVs did not reflect median bias, and there was Type 1 error of 100% with PPV = 90%. QBA was generally effective in correcting misclassification bias. CONCLUSIONS In immunization schedule studies, outcome misclassification may be non-differential or differential to exposure. Overall outcome PPVs do not reflect the distribution of false positives by exposure and are poor indicators of bias in individual studies. Our results support QBA for immunization schedule safety research.

A live attenuated zoster vaccine was licensed in the United States in 2006 for prevention of shingles in persons aged 60 years or older; the indication was extended in 2011 to cover those aged 50–59 years. We assessed vaccine effectiveness (VE) against shingles for 8 years after immunization at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. VE was estimated by Cox regression with a calendar timeline that was stratified by birth year. We adjusted for demographics and time-varying covariates, including comorbidities and immune compromise. From 2007 to 2014, 1.4 million people entered the study when they became age eligible for vaccination; 392,677 (29%) received the zoster vaccine. During 5.8 million person-years of follow-up, 48,889 cases of shingles were observed, including 5,766 among vaccinees. VE was 49.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 47.5, 50.6) across all follow-up. VE was 67.5% (95% CI: 65.4, 69.5) during the first year after vaccination, waned to 47.2% (95% CI: 44.1, 50.1) during the second year after vaccination, and then waned more gradually through year 8, when VE was 31.8% (95% CI: 15.1, 45.2). Unexpectedly, VE in persons vaccinated when they were aged 80 years or older was similar to VE in younger vaccinees, and VE in persons vaccinated when immune compromised was similar to VE in persons vaccinated when immune competent.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Human papillomavirus is the most common sexually transmitted infection in the United States and causes certain anogenital and oropharyngeal cancers. The 9-valent human papillomavirus vaccine (9vHPV) provides protection against additional types not included in the quadrivalent vaccine. We conducted near real-time vaccine safety surveillance for 24 months after the vaccine became available in the Vaccine Safety Datalink. METHODS: Immunizations and adverse events were extracted weekly from October 2015 to October 2017 from standardized data files for persons 9 to 26 years old at 6 Vaccine Safety Datalink sites. Prespecified adverse events included anaphylaxis, allergic reaction, appendicitis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy, injection site reaction, pancreatitis, seizure, stroke, syncope, and venous thromboembolism. The observed and expected numbers of events after 9vHPV were compared weekly by using sequential methods. Both historical and concurrent comparison groups were used to identify statistical signals for adverse events. Unexpected signals were investigated by medical record review and/or additional analyses. RESULTS: During 105 weeks of surveillance, 838 991 doses of 9vHPV were administered. We identified unexpected statistical signals for 4 adverse events: appendicitis among boys 9 to 17 years old after dose 3; pancreatitis among men 18 to 26 years old; and allergic reactions among girls 9 to 17 years old and women 18 to 26 years old after dose 2. On further evaluation, which included medical record review, temporal scan analysis, and additional epidemiological analyses, we did not confirm signals for any adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: After 2 years of near real-time surveillance of 9vHPV and several prespecified adverse events, no new safety concerns were identified.

[Figure: see text] OBJECTIVES: To determine pertussis risk by diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccination status and time since last DTaP dose. METHODS: Children born at Kaiser Permanente Northern California between 1999 and 2016 were followed from 3 months of age until they tested positive for pertussis; disenrolled from Kaiser Permanente Northern California; received the tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis, adsorbed vaccine; turned 11 years of age, or the end of the study period. DTaP vaccination status was categorized on the basis of the number of doses received in relation to the number of doses expected according to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice–recommended ages. RESULTS: Among 469 982 children ages 3 months to 11 years, we identified 738 pertussis cases. A total of 99 cases were unvaccinated, 36 were undervaccinated, 515 were fully vaccinated, and 88 were fully vaccinated plus 1 dose. Pertussis risk was 13 times higher among unvaccinated (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 13.53; 95% confidence interval [CI] 10.64–17.21) compared with fully vaccinated children and 1.9 times higher (aHR = 1.86; 95% CI 1.32–2.63) among undervaccinated children. Among vaccinated children ages 19 to

Background Postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) occurs in 5–30% of individuals with herpes zoster (HZ) and is characterized by long-lasting pain. Zoster vaccine live (ZVL) is licensed for people 50 years and older to prevent HZ and PHN. This study evaluated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of ZVL against PHN. Methods We conducted an open cohort study within Kaiser Permanente Northern California with continuous accrual of people as they became age-eligible for ZVL. We defined PHN using a PHN diagnosis between 90 and 365 days after an incident episode of HZ. We estimated VE against PHN using Cox regression with a calendar timeline stratified by year of birth and adjusted for sex, race, influenza vaccination, outpatient visit frequency, comorbidities, and immune compromise status. Results From 2007 to 2016, 1·5 million people entered the study population and 33% received ZVL. During 7·6 million person-years of follow-up, there were 62,205 HZ cases, 4150 (6·7%) of which went on to develop PHN. Overall VE for PHN was 64·8% (95% CI 61·3, 68). VE was 82·8% (95% CI 77·6, 86·7) during the first year after vaccination, 58·3% (95% CI 50.1, 65.2) during the third year, and then waned more gradually to 48·7% (95% CI 30·2, 62·3) during the eighth year. VE in persons vaccinated when aged 80 years or older was similar to VE in younger vaccinees. VE in persons vaccinated when immune compromised was similar to VE in immune competent. Conclusions Overall, ZVL was 65% effective against PHN. It was effective in all age groups and provided moderate protection through 8 years.

BACKGROUND: Case reports have suggested that vaccines may trigger transverse myelitis (TM) or acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM), but the evidence for a causal association is inconclusive. We analyzed the association of immunization and subsequent development of TM or ADEM. METHODS: We identified all cases of TM and ADEM in the Vaccine Safety Datalink population. Using a case-centered method, we compared vaccination of each case to vaccination of all matched persons in the study population, who received the same type of vaccine, with respect to whether or not their vaccination occurred during a predetermined exposure interval. We calculated a risk difference (excess risk) of TM and ADEM for each vaccine. RESULTS: Following nearly 64 million vaccine doses, only 7 cases of TM and 8 cases of ADEM were vaccinated during the primary exposure window 5–28 days prior to onset. For TM, there was no statistically significant increased risk of immunization. For ADEM, there was no statistically significant increased risk following any vaccine except for Tdap (adolescent and adult tetanus, reduced diphtheria, acellular pertussis) vaccine. Based on 2 exposed cases, the odds ratio for Tdap exposure 5–28 days prior to ADEM onset was 15.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–471.6; P = .04), and the estimated excess risk was 0.385 (95% CI, −.04 to 1.16) cases per million doses. CONCLUSIONS: We found no association between TM and prior immunization. There was a possible association of ADEM with Tdap vaccine, but the excess risk is not likely to be more than 1.16 cases of ADEM per million vaccines administered.

Introduction Despite minimal evidence, public concerns that the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine can cause autoimmune diseases (AD) persist. We evaluated whether HPV vaccine is associated with a long-term increased risk of diabetes mellitus type 1 (DM1). Methods This was a retrospective cohort study in which we identified all potential DM1 cases from Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) members who were between 11 and 26 years old any time after June 2006 through December 2015. We chart reviewed a random sample of 100 DM1 cases to confirm diagnosis and to develop a computer algorithm that reliably determined symptom onset date. Our DM1 Analysis Population comprised all individuals who met membership criteria and who were age and sex eligible to have received HPV vaccine. We adjusted for age, sex, race, Medicaid, and years of prior KPNC membership by stratification using a Cox multiplicative hazards model with a calendar timeline. Results Our DM1 analysis included 911,648 individuals. Of 2613 DM1 cases identified, 338 remained in the analysis after applying our algorithm, HPV vaccine eligibility and membership criteria. Over the 10 years of the study period, comparing vaccinated with unvaccinated persons, we did not find an increased risk of DM1 associated with HPV vaccine receipt (hazard ratio 1.21, 95% Confidence Interval 0.94, 1.57). Conclusions We found no increased risk for development of DM1 following HPV vaccination. Our study provides reassurance that during the 10-year time period after HPV vaccine was introduced, there was no substantial increased risk for DM1 following HPV vaccination.

We evaluated the risk of optic neuritis (ON) after vaccines, using a case-centered analysis, comparing the time since vaccination for the patients with ON with that for all similar vaccinees in a large integrated health plan population. We did not detect any association between ON and receipt of any type of vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination against pertussis during pregnancy is recommended to protect newborns, yet there is limited information about the effectiveness of maternal tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine before the first infant dose of diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccine and during the first year of life in infants who have received DTaP. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study of infants born at Kaiser Permanente Northern California from 2010 to 2015, we estimated the effectiveness of maternal pertussis vaccination for protecting newborns against pertussis in the first 2 months of life and in the first year of life accounting for each infant DTaP dose. RESULTS: Among 148 981 newborns, the vaccine effectiveness of maternal Tdap was 91.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 19.5 to 99.1) during the first 2 months of life and 69.0% (95% CI, 43.6 to 82.9) during the entire first year of life. The vaccine effectiveness was 87.9% (95% CI, 41.4 to 97.5) before infants had any DTaP vaccine doses, 81.4% (95% CI, 42.5 to 94.0) between doses 1 and 2, 6.4% (95% CI, −165.1 to 66.9) between doses 2 and 3, and 65.9% (95% CI, 4.5 to 87.8) after infants had 3 DTaP doses. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal Tdap vaccination was highly protective against infant pertussis, especially in the first 2 months of life. Even after infant DTaP dosing, there was evidence of additional protection from maternal Tdap vaccination for the first year of life. This study strongly supports the United States’ current recommendation to administer Tdap during each pregnancy.

Background. Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) is an acute polyradiculoneuropathy, thought to be an autoimmune process. Although cases of GBS have been reported following a wide range of vaccines, a clear association has only been established with the 1976 H1N1 inactivated influenza vaccine. Methods. We identified hospitalized GBS cases from Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) from 1995 through 2006. The medical record of each suspected case was neurologist-reviewed according to the Brighton Collaboration GBS case definition; only confirmed cases were included in the analyses, and cases of Miller Fisher syndrome were excluded. Using a case-centered design, we compared the odds of vaccination in the 6 and 10 weeks prior to onset of GBS to the odds of vaccination during the same time intervals in all vaccinated individuals in the entire KPNC population. Results. We confirmed 415 incident cases of GBS (including Brighton levels 1, 2, and 3) during the study period (>30 million person-years). Incidence peaked during the winter months. The odds ratio of influenza vaccination within a 6-week interval prior to GBS, compared with the prior 9 months, was 1.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], .4–3.1). The risk in the 6-week interval compared to the prior 12 months for tetanus diphtheria combination, 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide, and for all vaccines combined was 1.4 (95% CI, .3–4.5), 0.7 (95% CI, .1– 2.9), and 1.3 (95% CI, .8–2.3), respectively. Conclusions. In this large retrospective study, we did not find evidence of an increased risk of GBS following vaccinations of any kind, including influenza vaccination.

Because of rare but serious adverse events, pharmaceutical drugs and vaccines are sometimes withdrawn from the market, either by a government agency such as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the United States or by the manufacturing pharmaceutical company. In other cases, a drug may be generally safe but increase the risk for serious adverse events for certain subpopulations such as pregnant women or people with heart problems. Due to limited sample size and selected study populations, rare adverse events are often impossible to detect during phase 3 trials conducted before the drug is approved for general use. It is then important to conduct post-approval drug safety surveillance, using, for example, health insurance claims data. In such surveillance, the goal should be to detect serious adverse events as early as possible without too many false alarms, and it is then natural to use a continuous or near-continuous sequential test procedure that reevaluates the data on a daily or weekly b...

Importance In recent years, rates of vaccination have been declining. Whether this phenomenon disproportionately affects children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) or their younger siblings is unknown. Objectives To investigate if children after receiving an ASD diagnosis obtain their remaining scheduled vaccines according to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendations and to compare the vaccination patterns of younger siblings of children with ASD with the vaccination patterns of younger siblings of children without ASD. Design, Setting, and Participants This investigation was a retrospective matched cohort study. The setting was 6 integrated health care delivery systems across the United States within the Vaccine Safety Datalink. Participants were children born between January 1, 1995, and September 30, 2010, and their younger siblings born between January 1, 1997, and September 30, 2014. The end of follow-up was September 30, 2015. Exposures Recommended childhood vaccines between ages 1 month and 12 years. Main Outcome and Measure The proportion of children who received all of their vaccine doses according to ACIP recommendations. Results The study included 3729 children with ASD (676 [18.1%] female), 592 907 children without ASD, and their respective younger siblings. Among children without ASD, 250 193 (42.2%) were female. For vaccines recommended between ages 4 and 6 years, children with ASD were significantly less likely to be fully vaccinated compared with children without ASD (adjusted rate ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.85-0.88). Within each age category, vaccination rates were significantly lower among younger siblings of children with ASD compared with younger siblings of children without ASD. The adjusted rate ratios varied from 0.86 for siblings younger than 1 year to 0.96 for those 11 to 12 years old. Parents who had a child with ASD were more likely to refuse at least 1 recommended vaccine for that child’s younger sibling and to limit the number of vaccines administered during the younger sibling’s first year of life. Conclusions and Relevance Children with ASD and their younger siblings were undervaccinated compared with the general population. The results of this study suggest that children with ASD and their younger siblings are at increased risk of vaccine-preventable diseases.

The emergence of pandemic H1N1 influenza in 2009 has prompted public health responses, including production and licensure of new influenza A (H1N1) 2009 monovalent vaccines. Safety monitoring is a critical component of vaccination programs. As proof-of-concept, the authors mimicked near real-time prospective surveillance for prespecified neurologic and allergic adverse events among enrollees in 8 medical care organizations (the Vaccine Safety Datalink Project) who received seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine during the 2005/06-2007/08 influenza seasons. In self-controlled case series analysis, the risk of adverse events in a prespecified exposure period following vaccination was compared with the risk in 1 control period for the same individual either before or after vaccination. In difference-in-difference analysis, the relative risk in exposed versus control periods each season was compared with the relative risk in previous seasons since 2000/01. The authors used Poisson-based analysis to compare the risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome following vaccination in each season with that in previous seasons. Maximized sequential probability ratio tests were used to adjust for repeated analyses on weekly data. With administration of 1,195,552 doses to children under age 18 years and 4,773,956 doses to adults, no elevated risk of adverse events was identified. Near real-time surveillance for selected adverse events can be implemented prospectively to rapidly assess seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine safety.

Background Herpes zoster ophthalmicus (HZO), caused by reactivation of varicella-zoster virus in or around the eye, can be severe and often results in care-seeking that may be less discretionary than for uncomplicated herpes zoster (HZ). We compared the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of live zoster vaccine against HZO with the VE against HZ overall. Methods Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) members enter the ongoing cohort study when age-eligible for zoster vaccine starting in 2007. Incident HZ was defined as a new diagnosis of HZ with an antiviral prescription or a positive varicella viral test. Among those, an HZO case was defined as having an HZO diagnosis during an ophthalmology visit within 30 days of the initial HZ diagnosis. VE by age at vaccination and time since vaccination was estimated using Cox regression adjusted for age, race, sex and time-varying measures of healthcare use, comorbidities and immunocompromise status. Average VE over the first 5 years following vaccination was calculated as a weighted average of annual VE estimates. Results During 2007–2014, ~1.3 million individuals ≥50 years of age entered the study population and 29% were vaccinated. Among 48,889 incident HZ cases, 2,858 (6%) had HZO, 87% of whom were unvaccinated. For all ages combined, VE against HZO was 72% (95% CI, 64%-79%) in year 1, similar to 68% (95% CI, 65%-70%) against HZ. VE fell in years 2, 3, 4, and 5 to 47%, 45%, 42% and 27% for HZO and to 47%, 39%, 41% and 37% for HZ. For age groups 60 – 69 and 70 – 79, where we have the most data, initial VE and waning were similar for HZO and HZ. Numbers of HZO cases for 50–59 year olds were too small to evaluate at this time. Average VE against HZO over the first 5 years following vaccination was 52% (95% CI, 42%–60%) for ages 60–69, 51% (95% CI, 39%–61%) for ages 70-79, and 39% (95% CI, 14%-57%) for ages 80+; similarly, 5-year average VE against HZ was 49%, 46%, and 44% for these 3 age groups. Conclusion VE against HZO was similar to VE against HZ regardless of age at vaccination or time since vaccination. Effectiveness of live zoster vaccine in preventing HZO was highest in year one with subsequent waning. Disclosures E. Earley, Merck & Co.: Research Contractor, Salary; M. Marks, Merck and Co. Inc.: Employee, Restricted Stock and Salary; P. Saddier, Merck & Co., Inc.: Employee, Salary; N. P. Klein, GSK: Investigator, Grant recipient; sanofi pasteur: Investigator, Grant recipient; Merck & Co.: Investigator, Grant recipient; MedImmune: Investigator, Grant recipient; Protein Science: Investigator, Grant recipient Pfizer: Investigator, Grant recipient

Background Clostridium difficile is a major cause of severe diarrhea in the U.S. We described characteristics of Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) members with C. difficile infection (CDI), identified risk factors associated with CDI, and developed risk scores to predict who may develop CDI. Methods Retrospective cohort study with all KPNC members ≥18 years old from May 2011 to July 2014 comparing demographic and clinical characteristics for those with and without lab-confirmed incident CDI. We included CDI risk factors in logistic regression models to estimate the risk of developing future CDI after an Identification Recruitment Date (IRD), a time when an individual might be a good candidate for a C. difficile vaccine clinical trial. Two risk score models were created and cross validated (70% of the data used for development and 30% for testing). Results During the study period, there were 9,986 CDI cases and 2,230,354 members without CDI. CDI cases tended to be ≥65 years old (59% vs.. 21%), female (61% vs. 53%), and white race (70% vs. 53%), with more hospitalizations (42% vs. 3%), emergency room visits (51% vs. 14%), and skilled nursing facility stays (25% vs. 0.6%) in the year prior to CDI compared with members without CDI. At least 10 office visits within the prior year (53% vs. 16%), use of antibiotics in last 12 weeks (81% vs. 11%), proton pump inhibitors in the last year (36% vs. 7%), and multiple medical conditions within the prior year (e.g., chronic kidney disease, congestive heart failure, and pneumonia) were important risk factors for CDI. Using a hospital discharge event as the IRD, our risk score model yielded excellent performance in predicting the likelihood of developing CDI in the subsequent 31 – 365 days (C-statistic of 0.851). Using a random date as the IRD, our model also predicted CDI risk in the subsequent 1–30 days (C-statistic 0.658) and 31–365 days (C-statistic 0.722) reasonably well. Conclusion CDI can be predicted by increasing age, medications, comorbidities and healthcare exposure, particularly ≥10 office visits, hospitalizations, and skilled nursing stays in the prior year and recent antibiotics. Such risk factors can be used to identify high-risk populations for C. difficile vaccine clinical studies. Disclosures H. Yu, Pfizer, Inc.: Employee, Salary; B. Cai, Pfizer, Inc.: Employee, Salary; E. Gonzalez, Pfizer, Inc.: Employee, Salary; J. Lawrence, Pfizer, Inc.: Employee, Salary; N. P. Klein, GSK: Investigator, Grant recipient; sanofi pasteur: Investigator, Grant recipient; Merck & Co: Investigator, Grant recipient; MedImmune: Investigator, Grant recipient; Protein Sciences: Investigator, Grant recipient; Pfizer: Investigator, Grant recipient

Importance The first dose of live attenuated measles-containing vaccines is associated with an increased risk of febrile seizures 7 to 10 days following immunization among 12- to 23-month-old children. The combination measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella vaccine is associated with a 2-fold increased risk of febrile seizures 7 to 10 days following immunization compared with the separately administered measles, mumps, and rubella and varicella vaccines. It is unknown whether the magnitude of these increased risks depends on age at immunization. Objective To examine the potential modifying effect of age on the risk of fever and seizures following immunization with measles-containing vaccines. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective cohort study at 8 Vaccine Safety Datalink sites of a total of 840 348 children 12 to 23 months of age who had received a measles-containing vaccine from 2001 through 2011. Exposures Any measles-containing vaccines and measles-containing vaccines by type. Main Outcomes and Measures Fever and seizure events occurring during a 42-day postimmunization observation period. Results In the analysis of any measles-containing vaccines, the increased risk of seizures during the 7- to 10-day risk interval, using the remainder of the observation period as the control interval, was significantly greater among older children (relative risk, 6.5; 95% CI, 5.3-8.1; attributable risk, 9.5 excess cases per 10 000 doses; 95% CI, 7.6-11.5) than among younger children (relative risk, 3.4; 95% CI, 3.0-3.9; attributable risk = 4.0 excess cases per 10 000 doses; 95% CI, 3.4-4.6). The relative risk of postimmunization fever was significantly greater among older children than among younger children; however, its attributable risk was not. In the analysis of vaccine type, measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella vaccine was associated with a 1.4-fold increase in the risk of fever and 2-fold increase in the risk of seizures compared with measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine administered with or without varicella vaccine in both younger and older children. Conclusions and Relevance Measles-containing vaccines are associated with a lower increased risk of seizures when administered at 12 to 15 months of age. Findings of this study that focused on safety outcomes highlight the importance of timely immunization of children with the first dose of measles-containing vaccines.

Background Pregnant women are at greater risk of complications from influenza (flu) infection than the general population. Although vaccination is an effective method to prevent influenza, the vaccine is underutilized during pregnancy. A challenge to maternal flu vaccination is the paucity of data about the effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV) in preventing severe outcomes in pregnant women. To inform policy and address this knowledge gap, CDC developed a multi-country collaboration to investigate the preventive value of IIV during pregnancy during multiple flu seasons. We present the progress to date of this Network. Methods PREVENT was established in April 2016 to: i) estimate incidence of influenza and vaccination rates; ii) describe epidemiologic characteristics associated with illness; and iii) estimate IIV effectiveness in preventing hospitalizations during pregnancy associated with RT PCR -confirmed influenza. We selected sites that could identify the population of women known to be pregnant during flu seasons and integrate their hospitalization data, clinical laboratory testing, and vaccination records. We will assess VE using the case test-negative control design and use meta-analyses to pool VE estimates across sites and account for significant differences. Primary analyses will be completed by August 2017. Results Seven sites in Australia, Canada, Israel, and the US were selected; a protocol and data dictionary were finalized. We identified 1,024 pregnant women hospitalized with acute respiratory illness and RT-PCR tested, during six influenza seasons (2010–11 through 2015–16). Of the qualifying women, 550 (54%) tested positive for flu. Positivity varied by site (range 41% (US)–61.8% (Ontario, CAN)), and vaccination coverage varied across sites and seasons (range 7.3% (Ontario, CAN)–46% (US)). Analyses will examine flu season characteristics, vaccination patterns, and clinical and birth outcomes related to respiratory illness during pregnancy and flu incidence. Conclusion Laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization during pregnancy is a relatively low-frequency event. Pooling data across multiple sites offers a way to estimate VE against severe influenza outcomes in pregnant women that is informative to influenza vaccine policy. Disclosures A. Naleway, MedImmune: Investigator, Research grant; Pfizer: Investigator, Research grant; Merck: Investigator, Grant recipient; N. P. Klein, GSK: Investigator, Research grant; sanofi pasteur: Investigator, Grant recipient; Merck & Co: Investigator, Grant recipient; MedImmune: Investigator, Grant recipient; Protein Science: Investigator, Research grant; Pfizer: Investigator, Grant recipient; S. Irving, Medimmune/AstraZeneca: Investigator, Research support

We carried out an imaging survey for extrasolar planets around stars in the Pleiades (125 Myr, 135 pc) in the $H$ and $K_{S}$ bands using HiCIAO combined with the adaptive optics, AO188, on the Subaru telescope. We found 13 companion candidates fainter than 14.5 mag in the $H$ band around 9 stars. Five of these 13 were confirmed to be background stars by measurement of their proper motion. One was not found in the second epoch observation, and thus was not a background or companion object. One had multi-epoch image, but the precision of its proper motion was not sufficient to conclude whether it was background object. Four other candidates are waiting for second epoch observations to determine their proper motion. Finally, the remaining 2 were confirmed to be 60 $M_{J}$ brown dwarf companions orbiting around HD 23514 (G0) and HII 1348 (K5) respectively, as had been reported in previous studies. In our observations, the average detection limit for a point source was 20.3 mag in the $H$ band beyond 1''.5 from the central star. On the basis of this detection limit, we calculated the detection efficiency to be 90% for a planet with 6 to 12 Jovian masses and a semi-major axis of 50--1000 AU. For this we extrapolated the distribution of planet mass and semi-major axis derived from RV observations and adopted the planet evolution model of Baraffe et al. (2003). As there was no detection of a planet, we estimated the frequency of such planets to be less than 17.9% ($2\sigma$) around one star of the Pleiades cluster., Comment: 30 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in PASJ

Influenza is a common and potentially serious infection in infants. Previous studies of influenza vaccine in this age group have reported widely varying estimates of vaccine effectiveness, and few have used laboratory confirmation of influenza diagnoses. We evaluated the effectiveness of 1 and 2 doses of the trivalent inactivated vaccine against laboratory-confirmed influenza in children aged 6 to 23 months within the Kaiser Permanente Northern California Medical Care Program for the 2003-2004, 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 influenza seasons. 1,648 children were included in the analyses, with an average of 4.5 controls matched to each of the 300 cases (213, 29 and 58 cases identified for each of the influenza seasons, respectively) based on birth month/year and zip code. Vaccination status was determined as of 14 days prior to the case patient's positive test result. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate vaccine effectiveness for each season, adjusting for chronic medical conditions and other possible confounders. During the 2005-2006 influenza season, when predominant circulating virus strains and vaccine strains were well matched, vaccination was 76% [95% CI: 37-91%] effective against laboratory-confirmed infection. There was no statistically significant effect of vaccination, however, for the 2003-2004 or 2004-2005 seasons. Our results highlight the need for further study of influenza vaccine effectiveness in this age group.

A large-scale, postmarketing observational database safety study was conducted following 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) licensure. A secondary outcome was the occurrence of predefined diagnoses among PCV7 vaccinees versus historic controls. Forty-two PCV7 recipients and 17 controls were hospitalized for Kawasaki disease (P = 0.012). After adjusting for potential confounding variables, this difference was not significant (P = 0.083). No association between Kawasaki disease and PCV7 was found.

Rare but serious adverse events associated with vaccines or drugs are often nearly impossible to detect in prelicensure studies and require monitoring after introduction of the agent in large populations. Sequential testing procedures are needed to detect vaccine or drug safety problems as soon as possible after introduction.To develop and evaluate a new real-time surveillance system that uses dynamic data files and sequential analysis for early detection of adverse events after the introduction of new vaccines.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-sponsored Vaccine Safety Datalink Project developed a real-time surveillance system and initiated its use in an ongoing study of a new meningococcal vaccine for adolescents. Dynamic data files from 8 health plans were updated and aggregated for analysis every week. The analysis used maximized sequential probability ratio testing (maxSPRT), a new signal detection method that supports continuous or time-period analysis of data as they are collected.Using the new real-time surveillance system, ongoing analyses of meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MCV) safety are being conducted on a weekly basis. Two forms of maxSPRT were implemented: an analysis using concurrent matched controls, and an analysis based on expected counts of the outcomes of interest, which were estimated based on historical data. The analysis highlights both theoretical and operational issues, including how to (1) choose appropriate outcomes and stopping rules, (2) select control groups, and (3) accommodate variation in exposed:unexposed ratios between time periods and study sites.Real-time surveillance combining dynamic data files, aggregation of data, and sequential analysis methods offers a useful and highly adaptable approach to early detection of adverse events after the introduction of new vaccines.

There currently are no population-based systems in the United States to rapidly detect adverse events after newly introduced vaccines. To evaluate the feasibility of developing such systems, we used 5 years of data from 4 health maintenance organizations within the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Vaccine Safety Datalink.Within every year, each week's vaccinated children were followed for 4 weeks, and rates of adverse events were compared with rates among children of similar ages before the introduction of the new vaccine. We assessed risks for intussusception after rotavirus vaccination and risks for fever, seizures, and other neurologic adverse events after the change from whole cell diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTPw) to acellular DTP vaccine (DTPa). We used sequential probability ratio testing, adjusted for age, sex, calendar time, season, and HMO, and with a stopping value based on the probability of an adverse event under the null hypothesis and under a preset alternative hypothesis.We detected an increase in intussusception after 2589 vaccine doses of rotavirus vaccine, about the same time initial reports of intussusception were made to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System. Decreases in risk for fever, seizures, and other abnormal neurologic events became detectable within 12 weeks, 42 weeks, and 18 months, respectively, after the change from DTPw to DTPa.We conclude that it is feasible to develop systems for rapid and routine population-based assessments of new vaccine safety.

Background and Aims: The worldwide introduction of influenza A (H1N1) vaccines in fall 2009 has raised widespread public questions about the safety of these new vaccines. The Vaccine Safety Datalink Project, a collaboration among CDC and eight health care systems in the HMORN, began accelerated monitoring of this vaccine’s safety in early fall 2009. Methods: The VSD Project conducts near real-time monitoring of potential adverse events following vaccination for all new vaccines. Each week, each site updates dynamic data files, and the coordinating center analyzes all data cumulatively. Repeated analysis of the same data requires adjustment for multiple testing. To address this issue, VSD uses sequential statistical methods. Evaluation of H1N1 vaccine safety poses special challenges, including confounding by indication, seasonality, and new priority groups including pregnant women. We are using several analytic methods, including: Self-controlled case-series, which compares exposed vs. unexposed time windows within the same individual; Poisson, which compares the outcomes during the current season with expected rates based on historical data for seasonal influenza vaccine; and Difference-in-difference, which compares the relative risk in exposed vs. unexposed time windows for H1N1 vaccine during the current season with the relative risk for seasonal influenza vaccine during cumulative prior seasons. Results: Pre-specified outcomes of interest include: Guillain-Barre syndrome, neuropathies, seizures, encephalitis, Bell’s palsy, ataxia, anaphylaxis, spontaneous abortion, pre-eclampsia, stroke, myocarditis and wheezing. Historical rates of these outcomes were calculated for time windows after seasonal influenza vaccination in prior seasons (2000/01–2008/09). The sequential analysis methods above will be used, and relative and absolute risks will be estimated for each outcome. For outcomes found associated with vaccination in preliminary analyses, additional evaluation will be conducted using temporal scan analyses, logistic regression, and when appropriate, medical record review.

The overall objective of our research was to develop methods to match species of entomopathogenic nematodes against the insect pests which they would be best adapted to control. The underlying hypothesis for this work was that entomopathogenic nematodes should be most effective when used against insect species to which they are naturally adapted to parasitize. Toward this end, we undertook a number of related studies focusing primarily on nematode foraging strategies. We found that foraging strategies affected host associations directly and indirectly. Nematodes' responses to host cues, and the role of their sensory organs based on lectin binding, led to new approaches to determining host range for these parasites. Based on this work, we developed a laboratory bioassay of host recognition behavior designed to predict field results. We also determined that nematodes that forage in a stationary manner (ambushers) have a slower metabolic rate than do active forgers (cruisers), thus their infective stage juveniles are longer lived. This study helps predict the duration of field activity after application and may partially explain field distributions of natural populations of entomopathogenic nematodes. The common thread linking all of these studies was that they led to a deeper understanding of the associations between entomopathogenic nematodes and insects as hosts.

The invented apparatus includes at least one acoustic sensor, a mapping unit, a controller, and a transducer. The sensor is coupled to an object to be inspected for damage, and generates a sensed signal based on acoustic signal occurring in the object under an applied load, which signal may or may not be the sound of damage occurring in the object. The mapping unit is coupled to receive the sensed signal from the sensor, and generates damage data based thereon. The controller is coupled to receive the damage data from the mapping unit. Initially, the apparatus is in a passive mode in which the apparatus senses an acoustic signal from the object. If the damage data indicates that the object has incurred possible damage in the passive mode, the controller switches to active mode and outputs induced signal data. The transducer is coupled to the object as well as the controller, and induces acoustic signal in the object, based on the induced signal data. The induced acoustic signal is detected by the sensor, mapped by the mapping unit, and supplied as damage data to the controller, after which the controller returns the apparatus to passive mode. If the damage data resulting from the induced acoustic signal indicates that the object has incurred actual damage, the controller can generate an alarm, a display of the damage, and/or store the damage data in a memory to provide a record of damage incurred by the object. The invention also includes related methods.

Context A link between measles virus–containing vaccines and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has been suggested by recent studies. Objective To address whether receipt or timing of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) increases risk for IBD. Design A case-control study. Setting Four large health maintenance organizations (HMOs) that are part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Vaccine Safety Datalink project. Patients or Other Participants A total of 155 persons with codes from International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision specific for IBD, born between 1958 and 1989 and enrolled from birth to the onset of disease, were identified. Up to 5 controls were matched by sex, HMO, and birth year. Intervention None. Main Outcome Measures Risk for IBD, Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis. Results Past vaccination was not associated with an increased risk for Crohn's disease (odds ratio [OR] for measles-mumps-rubella vaccine [MMR], 0.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.08-2.0), ulcerative colitis (OR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.18-3.56), or IBD (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.21-1.68). Risk for IBD was not increased among children vaccinated who were younger than 12 months (OR for MMR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.15-2.45) or aged 12 to 18 months (OR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.28-2.59) relative to unvaccinated children. Children vaccinated with MMR who were older than 18 months were at significantly decreased risk for IBD (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.04-0.68). Neither past vaccination nor age at vaccination with other MCV was associated with increased risk for Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, or IBD. Risk for Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, or IBD was not elevated in the time immediately following vaccination with either vaccine. Conclusions Vaccination with MMR or other MCV, or the timing of vaccination early in life, did not increase the risk for IBD.

Efficacy of Heptavalent Conjugate Pneumococcal Vaccine (Wyeth Lederle) in 7,000 Infants and Children: Results of the Northern California Kaiser Permanente Efficacy Trial

We discuss in this talk the optical and radio Hubble-diagrams for the brightest quasars. We shall infer from our results: (1) a strong correlation between redshift and received flux that is consistent with the cosmological interpretation of the emission-line redshifts; and (2) a quantitative upper limit on the permissible amount of pure luminosity evolution. We establish these conclusions twice, by examining the Hubble diagrams both with and without corrections for the selection effects introduced by the flux limits of the quasar catalogs considered.