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Mortality in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) is significantly increased compared with the general population. Many questions concerning survival in MS are still unanswered due to the difficulty of comparing information collected at different times and in different geographic areas. The increasing incidence of MS, the improvement in care of the chronically disabled, and different methodologies may explain the lack of coherence among studies' results. Reported times to death from birth and from disease onset/diagnosis are highly variable. Patients older at onset or with primary progressive course have shorter survival; however, data on sex and mortality are contradictory. Changes in sex ratio in MS over time represent one possible explanation. MS is the main cause of death in ≥50% of patients and the incidence of deaths not due to MS varies among countries. Particularly, suicide is substantially increased in patients with MS, and, despite its varying incidence, mainly due to "cultural bias," it should be considered an MS-related cause of death. Recent results of the long-term follow-up study of interferon-β-1b demonstrated a significant reduction of mortality among treated patients. Notwithstanding its long latency, mortality is therefore an unambiguously valid long-term outcome in randomized controlled trials. It usefully combines the net impact of treatment efficacy on longevity and adverse events, which may reduce it.

Migraine with aura is a common, debilitating, recurrent headache disorder associated with transient and reversible focal neurological symptoms (1). A role has been suggested for the two-pore domain (K2P) potassium channel, TWIK-related spinal cord potassium channel (TRESK, encoded by KCNK18), in pain pathways and general anaesthesia (2). We therefore examined whether TRESK is involved in migraine by screening the KCNK18 gene in subjects diagnosed with migraine. Here we report a frameshift mutation, F139WfsX24, which segregates perfectly with typical migraine with aura in a large pedigree. We also identified prominent TRESK expression in migraine-salient areas such as the trigeminal ganglion. Functional characterization of this mutation demonstrates that it causes a complete loss of TRESK function and that the mutant subunit suppresses wild-type channel function through a dominant-negative effect, thus explaining the dominant penetrance of this allele. These results therefore support a role for TRESK in the pathogenesis of typical migraine with aura and further support the role of this channel as a potential therapeutic target., Migraine is a common recurrent headache disorder, with an annual prevalence estimated at 18.2% in females and 6.5% in males (1). One third of attacks, which can last from 4 [...]

The major locus for multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility is located within the class II region of the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC). HLA-DRB1 alleles, constituting the strongest MS susceptibility factors, have been widely exploited in research including construction of transgenic animal models of MS. Many studies have concluded that HLA-DRB1*15 allele itself determines MS-associated susceptibility. If this were true, haplotypes bearing this allele would confer equal risk. If HLA-DRB1*15 bearing haplotypes differed for risk, roles for other loci in this region would be implied and further study of the fine structure of this locus would be compelling. We have tested the hypothesis comparing haplotypes stratified by HLA class I tagging. We show here that HLA-DRB1*15-bearing-haplotypes in 1970 individuals from 494 MS families are indeed heterogeneous. Some HLA-DRB1*15 haplotypes determine susceptibility while others do not. Three groups of class I tagged HLA-DRB1*15 haplotypes were not over-transmitted: (i) HLA-DRB1*15-HLA-B*08 (TR = 25, NT = 23, Odds Ratio = 1.09), (ii) -HLA-B*27 (TR = 18, NT = 17, Odds Ratio = 1.06), and (iii) rare HLA-DRB1*15 haplotypes (frequency MHC | class II | transmission

Abstract Genetic-epidemiological studies on monozygotic (MZ) twins have been used for decades to tease out the relative contributions of genes and the environment to a trait. Phenotypic discordance in MZ twins has traditionally been ascribed to non-shared environmental factors acting after birth, however recent data indicate that this explanation is far too simple. In this paper, we review other reasons for discordance, including differences in the in utero environment, genetic mosaicism, and stochastic factors, focusing particularly on epigenetic discordance. Epigenetic differences are gaining increasing recognition. Although it is clear that in specific cases epigenetic alterations provide a causal factor in disease etiology, the overall significance of epigenetics in twin discordance remains unclear. It is also challenging to determine the causality and relative contributions of environmental, genetic, and stochastic factors to epigenetic variability. Epigenomic profiling studies have recently shed more light on the dynamics of temporal methylation change and methylome heritability, yet have not given a definite answer regarding their relevance to disease, because of limitations in establishing causality. Here, we explore the subject of epigenetics as another component in human phenotypic variability and its links to disease focusing particularly on evidence from MZ twin studies.

Abstract Background A season of birth effect in immune-mediated diseases (ID) such as multiple sclerosis and type 1 diabetes has been consistently reported. We aimed to investigate whether season of birth influences the risk of rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis and systemic lupus erythematosus in addition to multiple sclerosis, and to explore the correlation between the risk of ID and predicted ultraviolet B (UVB) light exposure and vitamin D status during gestation. Methods The monthly distribution of births of patients with ID from the UK (n = 115,172) was compared to that of the general population using the Cosinor test. Predicted UVB radiation and vitamin D status in different time windows during pregnancy were calculated for each month of birth and correlated with risk of ID using the Spearman's correlation coefficient. Results The distributions of ID births significantly differed from that of the general population (P = 5e-12) with a peak in April (odds ratio = 1.045, 95% confidence interval = 1.024, 1.067, P < 0.0001) and a trough in October (odds ratio = 0.945, 95% confidence interval = 0.925, 0.966, P < 0.0001). Stratification by disease subtype showed seasonality in all ID but Crohn's disease. The risk of ID was inversely correlated with predicted second trimester UVB exposure (Spearman's rho = -0.49, P = 0.00005) and third trimester vitamin D status (Spearman's rho = -0.44, P = 0.0003). Conclusions The risk of different ID in the UK is significantly influenced by the season of birth, suggesting the presence of a shared seasonal risk factor or factors predisposing to ID. Gestational UVB and vitamin D exposure may be implicated in the aetiology of ID.

Abstract Background There is a strong maternal parent-of-origin effect in determining susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS). One hypothesis is that an abnormal intrauterine milieu leading to impaired fetal development could plausibly also result in increased susceptibility to MS. A possible marker for this intrauterine insult is the presence of a non-fatal congenital anomaly. Methods We investigated whether or not congenital anomalies are associated with MS in a population-based cohort. We identified 7063 MS index cases and 2655 spousal controls with congenital anomaly information from the Canadian Collaborative Project on Genetic Susceptibility to MS (CCPGSMS). Results The frequency of congential anomalies were compared between index cases and controls. No significant differences were found. Conclusions Congenital anomalies thus do not appear to be associated with MS. However, we did not have complete data on types and severity of congenital anomalies or on maternal birth history and thus this study should be regarded as preliminary.

Abstract Background Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex trait in which genes in the MHC class II region exert the single strongest effect on genetic susceptibility. The principal MHC class II haplotype that increases MS risk in individuals of Northern European descent are those that bear HLA-DRB1*15. However, several other HLA-DRB1 alleles have been positively and negatively associated with MS and each of the main allelotypes is composed of many sub-allelotypes with slightly different sequence composition. Given the role of this locus in antigen presentation it has been suggested that variations in the peptide binding site of the allele may underlie allelic variation in disease risk. Methods In an investigation of 7,333 individuals from 1,352 MS families, we assessed the nucleotide sequence of HLA-DRB1 for any effects on disease susceptibility extending a recently published method of statistical analysis for family-based association studies to the particular challenges of hyper-variable genetic regions. Results We found that amino acid 60 of the HLA-DRB1 peptide sequence, which had previously been postulated based on structural features, is unlikely to play a major role. Instead, empirical evidence based on sequence information suggests that MS susceptibility arises primarily from amino acid 13. Conclusion Identifying a single amino acid as a major risk factor provides major practical implications for risk and for the exploration of mechanisms, although the mechanism of amino acid 13 in the HLA-DRB1 sequence's involvement in MS as well as the identity of additional variants on MHC haplotypes that influence risk need to be uncovered.

Abstract Background Risk sharing schemes represent an innovative and important approach to the problems of rationing and achieving cost-effectiveness in high cost or controversial health interventions. This study aimed to assess the feasibility of risk sharing schemes, looking at long term clinical outcomes, to determine the price at which high cost treatments would be acceptable to the NHS. Methods This case study of the first NHS risk sharing scheme, a long term prospective cohort study of beta interferon and glatiramer acetate in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients in 71 specialist MS centres in UK NHS hospitals, recruited adults with relapsing forms of MS, meeting Association of British Neurologists (ABN) criteria for disease modifying therapy. Outcome measures were: success of recruitment and follow up over the first three years, analysis of baseline and initial follow up data and the prospect of estimating the long term cost-effectiveness of these treatments. Results Centres consented 5560 patients. Of the 4240 patients who had been in the study for a least one year, annual review data were available for 3730 (88.0%). Of the patients who had been in the study for at least two years and three years, subsequent annual review data were available for 2055 (78.5%) and 265 (71.8%) patients respectively. Baseline characteristics and a small but statistically significant progression of disease were similar to those reported in previous pivotal studies. Conclusion Successful recruitment, follow up and early data analysis suggest that risk sharing schemes should be able to deliver their objectives. However, important issues of analysis, and political and commercial conflicts of interest still need to be addressed.

Abstract Background Genetic and environmental factors have important roles in multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility. A clear parent of origin effect has been shown in several populations, perhaps resulting from factors operating during gestation. Preterm birth (birth at less than 37 weeks gestational age) has been shown to result in long-term health problems, including impaired neurological development. Here, in a population-based cohort, we investigate whether preterm birth increases the risk to subsequently develop MS. Methods We identified 6585 MS index cases and 2509 spousal controls with preterm birth information from the Canadian Collaborative Project on Genetic Susceptibility to MS. Rates of individuals born preterm were compared for index cases and controls. Results There were no significant differences between cases and controls with respect to preterm births. 370 (5.6%) MS index cases and 130 (5.2%) spousal controls were born preterm, p = 0.41. Conclusion Preterm birth does not appear to contribute to MS aetiology. Other factors involved in foetal and early development need to be explored to elucidate the mechanism of the increased risk conferred by the apparent maternal effect.

Abstract Background Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex trait in which alleles at or near the class II loci HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1 contribute significantly to genetic risk. The MHC class II transactivator (MHC2TA) is the master controller of expression of class II genes, and methylation of the promoter of this gene has been previously been shown to alter its function. In this study we sought to assess whether or not methylation of the MHC2TA promoter pIV could contribute to MS disease aetiology. Methods In DNA from peripheral blood mononuclear cells from a sample of 50 monozygotic disease discordant MS twins the MHC2TA promoter IV was sequenced and analysed by methylation specific PCR. Results No methylation or sequence variation of the MHC2TA promoter pIV was found. Conclusion The results of this study cannot support the notion that methylation of the pIV promoter of MHC2TA contributes to MS disease risk, although tissue and timing specific epigenetic modifications cannot be ruled out.

Abstract Background Published false positive research findings are a major problem in the process of scientific discovery. There is a high rate of lack of replication of results in clinical research in general, multiple sclerosis research being no exception. Our aim was to develop and implement a policy that reduces the probability of publishing false positive research findings. We have assessed the utility to work with a pre-publication validation policy after several years of research in the context of a large multiple sclerosis database. Methods The large database of the Sylvia Lawry Centre for Multiple Sclerosis Research was split in two parts: one for hypothesis generation and a validation part for confirmation of selected results. We present case studies from 5 finalized projects that have used the validation policy and results from a simulation study. Results In one project, the "relapse and disability" project as described in section II (example 3), findings could not be confirmed in the validation part of the database. The simulation study showed that the percentage of false positive findings can exceed 20% depending on variable selection. Conclusion We conclude that the validation policy has prevented the publication of at least one research finding that could not be validated in an independent data set (and probably would have been a "true" false-positive finding) over the past three years, and has led to improved data analysis, statistical programming, and selection of hypotheses. The advantages outweigh the lost statistical power inherent in the process.