Search

Occupant behaviour simulation frameworks can employ synthetic populations to characterize occupancy and behavioural patterns in buildings based on observed demographic data at a certain geographical location. For buildings, very few synthetic occupant populations have been generated. This paper uses a Bayesian Networks (BN) structural learning approach to synthesize populations of occupants in a multi-family housing case study. Two additional cases of office occupants and senior housing residents are considered as a cross-case comparison. We draw upon the extended version of drivers-needs-actions-systems (DNAS) framework to guide the selection of variables and data imputation. Our results show that the BN approach is powerful in learning the structure of data sets. The synthetic data sets successfully match the joint distributions of the underlying combined data sets. Experiments on the multi-family housing particularly show better performance than the office and senior housing cases.

A desire to shift from fossil fuels to non-carbon-emitting energy sources has become an imperative supported by national, state, and local policies. In the U.S., a diverse array of policies at multiple levels of government have helped the solar industry achieve exponential growth. These advancements, however, are mediated by local implementation processes, which might be expected to have a large impact in the context of U.S. federalism. This paper investigates the effects of two countervailing forces – policy incentives and implementation disincentives – on residential solar adoption in New Jersey. The New Jersey case study includes two complementary analyses designed to illuminate policy incentives and implementation disincentives, respectively. The first is an interrupted time-series analysis that evaluates the effects of federal and statewide renewable energy policies on residential photovoltaic (PV) growth. The second is a set of semi-structured in-depth interviews with solar industry experts, providing implementation insights from the solar industry and indirectly portraying residential customers’ experiences. Results confirm that market-based instruments at the state-level play a crucial role in increasing the relative financial advantage of these systems and, thus, the attraction of residential solar PV to adopters. In addition, the behaviours of future adopters and the valuation of this technology as an investment in the housing market will impact the spread of residential PV systems in the future. Unfortunately, case study findings also confirm that an absence of standardized solar application procedures and outdated interconnection standards is a significant drag on the adoption rate. This highlights a need for policymakers to place greater emphasis on local implementation pathways in solar policy design. Options to achieve this include more robust ex-ante coordination among state and local levels of government and with industry to standardize implementation processes. While U.S. federalism may at times be constraining, our results suggest that even minimal levels of ex-ante coordination can lead to implementation gains that will have a large impact on solar diffusion outcomes. Key policy insightsFederal and state-level financial incentives significantly impact the residential photovoltaic solar adoption rate.The absence of streamlined interconnection application procedures and outdated interconnection standards for the grid limit the residential PV adoption in New Jersey.Our findings underline the importance of paying equal attention to both policy design and to technical standards to underpin implementation processes, especially in the decentralized context of U.S. federalism. Federal and state-level financial incentives significantly impact the residential photovoltaic solar adoption rate. The absence of streamlined interconnection application procedures and outdated interconnection standards for the grid limit the residential PV adoption in New Jersey. Our findings underline the importance of paying equal attention to both policy design and to technical standards to underpin implementation processes, especially in the decentralized context of U.S. federalism.

Bioaerosol concentrations in residential buildings located in the Northeastern US have not been widely studied. Here, in 2011-2015, we studied the presence and seasonal variability of culturable fungi and bacteria in three multi-family apartment buildings and correlated the bioaerosol concentrations with building ventilation system types and environmental parameters. A total of 409 indoor and 86 outdoor samples were taken. Eighty-five percent of investigated apartments had indoor-outdoor (I/O) ratios of culturable fungi below 1, suggesting minimal indoor sources of fungi. In contrast, 56% of the apartments had I/O ratios for culturable bacteria above 1, indicating the prominence of indoor sources of bacteria. Culturable fungi I/O ratios in apartments serviced by central heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system were lower than those in apartments with window AC. The type of ventilation system did not have a significant effect on the presence of indoor culturable bacteria. A significant positive association was determined between indoor dew point (DP) levels and indoor culturable fungi (P

Indoor heat and air pollution pose concurrent threats to human health and wellbeing, and their effects are more pronounced for vulnerable individuals. This study investigates exposures to summertime indoor overheating and airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) experienced by low-income seniors and explores the potential of natural ventilation on maintaining good indoor thermal conditions and air quality (IAQ). Environmental and behavioural monitoring and a series of interviews were conducted during summer 2017 in 24 senior apartments on three public housing sites in NJ, USA (1930s’ low-rise, 1960s’ high-rise and LEED-certified 2010s’ mid-rise). All sites had high exposures to overheating and PM2.5 concentrations during heat waves and on regular summer days, but with substantial between-site and between-apartment variability. Overheating was higher in the 30s’ low-rise site, while pollutant levels were higher in the 60s’ high-rise. Mixed linear models indicated a thermal and air quality trade-off with window opening (WO), especially in some ‘smoking’ units from the older sites, but also improved both thermal and PM2.5 concentration conditions in 20% of the apartments. Findings suggest that with warmer future summers, greater focus is needed on the interdependencies among (1) thermal and IAQ outcomes and (2) technological and behavioural dimensions of efforts to improve comfort for vulnerable occupants.

The Social Implications of technology are a global concern. Technological systems span all of the continents and connect nearly every human. The unintended consequences of human innovations are even more widespread, if you include space junk and radio noise. Associated ethical dilemmas are ubiquitous and are not confined to particular cultures or jurisdictions. We might expect that people all over the world would want to discuss technology and its social implications. But that is not the case. At least not with us.

We love to talk about the unintended consequences of others’ technological innovations. We document the air pollution and traffic congestion accompanying automobile dependence, the surrender of personal privacy in order to gain online convenience, and the political violence abetted by social media algorithms optimized to generate advertising revenue.

We are coming off one of the most difficult years in human memory, yet the IEEE Society on Social Implications of Technology (SSIT) managed to perform quite well in spite of the pandemic and its fallout. In 2020, our flagship ISTAS conference and the cosponsored conferences were huge successes, with record attendance, partly because going virtual allowed wider participation. Our new publication, IEEE Transactions in Technology and Society , was launched successfully with a stellar set of articles that are already attracting citations, and there are increasing number of articles ready for submissions. IEEE Technology and Society Magazine continues its decades-long run as the key forum for thoughtful articles about the social implications of technology. The Newsletter has become a vital in-house organ connecting members and keeps us informed about society activities. Our Distinguished Lecturer program has reached thousands of people worldwide. Two of our volunteers have received significant IEEE honors: Lew Terman won the Pemberton Award and Kalyan Sen was named an IEEE Fellow. These are just some of the highlights.

Innovation and technological development have led to a proliferation of various low-cost air quality monitors, most of which use light scattering techniques to detect airborne particles. As these monitors are used in various environments, their testing should also be performed in diverse environments and with different particle types. This study evaluated three Foobot units and three AirVisual Nodes in two laboratory environments and in one residential apartment when measuring five types of aerosols (0.72 and 2.00 µm polystyrene latex (PSL) spheres, Arizona Road Dust (ARD), nanosilver-based surface cleaner, and particles created by a cooking event). The low-cost monitors were highly correlated with the DustTrak DRX (TSI) for most aerosol types (r > 0.78), except when measuring nanosilver spray, where the r value decreased to 0.55. For PSL spheres, Foobot overestimated DRX PM2.5 concentrations while AirVisual's readings were closer to those of DRX and aligned relatively well with the 1:1 line. Both Foobot and AirVisual underestimated PM2.5 concentrations for ARD, nanosilver spray, and particles from a cooking event. Overall, the Foobots reported higher PM2.5 concentrations than the AirVisuals, except when measuring particles created by the cooking event. The paired monitors' precision error varied between 0.15 and 0.47, depending on the aerosol type and monitor pairs. The coefficient of variation ranged from 15.2% to 21.0% for the Foobots and from 12.5% to 28.7% for the AirVisuals. Both monitors showed high accuracy and precision when measuring temperature and humidity as compared to the IAQ Meter (TSI Inc.). AirVisual showed high accuracy and precision when measuring CO2, as compared to the IAQ meter. Foobot, however, didn't report accurate CO2 concentrations. Additionally, we found the AirVisual is easier to operate, and it provided more options to read, save, and download data. Copyright © 2020 American Association for Aerosol Research

Since the introduction of the occupant behavior Drivers-Needs-Actions-Systems (DNAS) framework in 2013, researchers have used the framework or further developed it based on their case studies, which include efforts to collect new data on occupant behaviors. The effort is often costly for the relatively few new data points added. Problems emerge when the already collected data do not meet the modelers' interoperability requirements. Previous studies addressed this issue by developing more sophisticated ontologies that enable integration with other datasets and synthetic data methodologies that would meet unique research applications. This paper presents an extension of the DNAS framework for the representation of synthetic occupant data to support various applications and use cases across the building life cycle. An agent-based modeling application is one of our motivations that requires more elaborate characteristics of an occupant-agent or a group-of-agent. The extension, built upon a review of the literature, introduces new elements to the framework that fall into five categories, including socio-economic, geographical location, activities, subjective values, and individual and collective adaptive actions. On-going research includes identifying occupant datasets and developing data fusion methods to generate synthetic occupants, as well as to demonstrate its applications in agent-based modeling coupled with building performance simulation.

This paper addresses the challenge of incorporating occupant behavior into building performance simulation models used during the design process—that is, before the actual occupants are known. It proposes the use of synthetic population data, an approach that is novel in building performance modeling although common in urban planning and public health. A simpler approach embodied in the ASHRAE Fundamentals volume is to report standard distributions of values for behavioral variables, assuming that parameters vary independently of one another when in fact many co-vary or are interdependent. An alternative approach calibrates models of occupant behavior against actual occupants in specific existing buildings, but this raises questions of transferability. Needed is a database of “generic” occupants that designers can use prospectively during the design process. This paper documents a process of combining disparate field studies of commercial buildings into a larger occupant behavior database and generating a statistically similar synthetic data set that can be shared without compromising confidentiality requirements associated with field studies. The synthetic data set successfully incorporates much of the covariance structure of the underlying field data and supports multivariate modeling. Its scope and structure necessarily serve the needs of the associated modeling framework. Cooperative and systematic sharing of data by field researchers is crucial for building large enough data sets to serve as a behaviorally-robust basis for building design.

As heat waves become more extreme, there is a growing concern for the health of elderly city dwellers who have poor living conditions and limited access to resources. Much research has documented socioeconomic links to heat vulnerability, but limited studies have investigated the detailed living conditions of vulnerable populations, despite increasing requests from local communities. In this paper, we examine the summertime thermal performance of 24 senior apartments within 3 public housing sites (2 conventional multifamily and 1 LEED-rated building), and the seniors' adaptive responses in Elizabeth, NJ, USA. Time-series data were collected from sensors, interviews and observations on the thermal environment and behavior, from May–October 2017. Our multi-level, occupant-centric approach utilizes the indoor heat index as a proxy for heat stress, against site and building characteristics, and environmental and personal variables. Panel regressions show thermal variations among sites/apartments and illustrate the significant effect of actions, such as window opening and air conditioner use. Results also show how the seniors' adaptive responses vary by site; residents with central air-conditioning use it, while residents from the two older sites engage in a wider range of adaptive actions, and in some cases achieve similar indoor heat indexes as apartments from the green building. Indoor heat stress experienced by low-income seniors can be greatly reduced through cost-effective strategies that target individual behaviors and outdoor amenities. This implies the need for integrated solutions to the heat waves problem across scales; including changes to residents' habits, building envelopes, building operations, and outdoor spaces.

Comparisons of buildings in similar climates built in accordance with different regional construction practices and building rating systems can provide useful insights in sustainable design practices. The objectives of this study were: (1) to perform energy related life cycle assessments of a typical LEED-H (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design for Homes) single-family home in New Jersey (US), and a typical Minergie-P single-family home in Chur, Switzerland; and (2) to assess the effect of rating systems and construction practices on the buildings’ environmental impacts. Inventory data was obtained from the Ecoinvent 2.2 database with a replacement of the Western European electricity mix with the US or New Jersey electricity mix for the New Jersey home. The Swiss building performed better regarding nonrenewable energy consumption, Global Warming Potential and Acidification Potential mainly due to the geothermal heat pump and the Swiss electricity mix while there was less of a difference regarding Ozone Layer Depletion Potential and Eutrophication Potential. The influence of electricity sources exceeded the effects of longer building life time or the removal of the Swiss basement. Regional building practices, local codes and environmental policies should take the electricity mix into account because it is so important.

Households consume a significant fraction of total potable water production. Strategies to improve the efficiency of water use tend to emphasize technological interventions to reduce or shift water demand. Behavioral water use reduction strategies can also play an important role, but a flexible framework for exploring the “what-ifs” has not been available. This paper introduces such a framework, presenting an agent-based model of household water-consuming behavior. The model simulates hourly water-using activities of household members within a rich technological and behavioral context, calibrated with appropriate data. Illustrative experiments compare the resulting water usage of U.S. and Dutch households and their associated water-using technologies, different household types (singles, families with children, and retired couples), different water metering regimes, and educational campaigns. All else equal, Dutch and metered households use less water. Retired households use more water because they are more often at home. Water-saving educational campaigns are effective for the part of the population that is receptive. Important interactions among these factors, both technological and behavioral, highlight the value of this framework for integrated analysis of the human-technology-water system.

This study used several real-time and filter-based aerosol instruments to measure PM2.5 levels in a high-rise residential green building in the Northeastern US and compared performance of those instruments. PM2.5 24-hr average concentrations were determined using a Personal Modular Impactor (PMI) with 2.5 µm cut (SKC Inc., Eighty Four, PA) and a direct reading pDR-1500 (Thermo Scientific, Franklin, MA) as well as its filter. 1-hr average PM2.5 concentrations were measured in the same apartments with an Aerotrak Optical Particle Counter (OPC) (model 8220, TSI, Inc., Shoreview, MN) and a DustTrak DRX mass monitor (model 8534, TSI, Inc., Shoreview, MN). OPC and DRX measurements were compared with concurrent 1-hr mass concentration from the pDR-1500. The pDR-1500 direct reading showed approximately 40% higher particle mass concentration compared to its own filter (n = 41), and 25% higher PM2.5 mass concentration compared to the PMI2.5 filter. The pDR-1500 direct reading and PMI2.5 in non-smoking homes...

Building information modeling is only beginning to incorporate human factors, although buildings are sites where humans and technologies interact with globally significant consequences. Some buildings fail to perform as their designers intended, in part because users do not or cannot properly operate the building, and some occupants behave differently than designers expect. Innovative buildings, e.g., green buildings, are particularly susceptible to usability problems. This paper presents a framework for prospectively measuring the usability of designs before buildings are constructed, while there is still time to improve the design. The framework, which was implemented as an agent-based computer simulation model, tests how well buildings are likely to perform, given realistic occupants. An illustrative model for lighting design shows that this modeling approach has practical efficacy, demonstrating that, to the extent that users exhibit heterogeneous behaviors and preferences, designs that allow greater local control and ease of operation perform better.

The small land footprint of nuclear power has been one of its attractions, especially in comparison to land-intensive renewable energy sources that have begun entering widespread use. But what happens to that footprint when nuclear accidents are included? Adding the land impacts of the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents doubles nuclear's km2/GWh footprint, though it remains slightly less land-intensive than other energy sources. However, one more accident will put it on par with solar, and the long-term trend favors renewables.

This paper investigates factors explaining the adoption of energy-efficient heating, cooling, window, and lighting technologies in U.S. commercial buildings. It presents multinomial logit models of technology adoption using the 2003 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey microdata set, examining, first, fundamental building components, and, second, energy-efficient adaptations. Key findings are that the choice of fundamental building components is strongly influenced by locational factors, the activities that are expected to take place in the building, and building-specific characteristics. Lighting technologies are an exception, and are poorly explained by these factors. By contrast, energy-efficient heating, cooling, window, lighting, and control adaptations appear to share common drivers, and are more likely to be adopted in newer, larger, more energy-intensive, owner-occupied buildings. These are the buildings that can best afford the up-front costs of innovation, which is often a design-intensive process. Absent policy interventions, the energy-efficient adaptations are unlikely to diffuse rapidly to the rest of the commercial building stock.

This paper analyzes the 1992 and 2003 US Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey microdata files to show the extent to which certain heating, cooling, lighting, and window technologies are entering use, and the resulting impacts on the intensity of energy use. Excepting the case of fluorescent lights, no technology dominates the entire market but instead each conquers a specific niche. Most of the buildings in which these technologies are installed do not have lower-than-average energy intensity, measured as annual energy use per square meter of floor space. The exceptional technology that does measurably correlate with reduced energy intensity is daylighting. These results suggest that technologies are adopted to serve comfort or quality objectives rather than to save energy, or that buildings’ users confound the designers’ intentions. Decision makers thus should improve operating and maintenance practices, invest in building commissioning, and rely more heavily on passive design features to save energy.

In this article, a brief examination of the histories of oil and electricity confirms that unfettered markets do not ensure adequate energy security, that rationales for governmental interventions have evolved over time, and that economic and political interests have been inextricably interlinked throughout. The energy security lens also has significant implications in the current policy debate over the "hydrogen economy".

In this paper I assess the current state of knowledge about quality-of-place (QOP) analysis. I find that there are persistent problems in measuring QOP, highly personal links between individual QOP perceptions and aggregate QOP measurements, mostly unintended impacts of public policy decisions on QOP outcomes, and inadequate triangulation across model approximations and data limitations when building tools to support local decision-making. The analytical community should therefore acknowledge that people hold diverse preferences, increase efforts to detect and model the consequences of policies, look across levels of decision-making for influences on QOP, and build adaptive analytical capacity.

The systems approach is a mainstay of engineering theory and practice, but it has been misapplied in the public policy arena and it is now viewed skeptically. This article briefly analyzes the problems that have been encountered with certain prescriptive applications of system concepts in the field of public policy. It then suggests steps that could restore credibility and legitimacy to policy-related applications of the systems approach.

These parties are often in the same boat, but they are rarely seen pulling together in the actual voyages of corporations on the treacherous waters of global competition. I use the plight of pollution prevention and green design initiatives in corporations to illustrate the problem and its implications. Within many firms, engineers, accountants, financial decision-makers, and environment/health/safety (EHS) managers communicate poorly. The result is missed opportunities for environmental improvements, cost reductions, and increased profits. Fixing the problem involves individual efforts plus changes in educational, financial, managerial, and regulatory institutions.

Future environmental requirements are an important component of investment risk for long-lived facilities such as electric power plants. Yet the industry's current regulatory compact discourages proactive environmental investments, and thus encourages suboptimal long-term compliance strategies. This paper develops an indicative estimate of the resulting inefficiency by analysing a typical US power system. It argues that market-oriented regulatory reform can encourage environmental risk management by utilities.

This paper discusses the evaluation of risk management strategies as a part of integrated resource planning. Value- and scope-related uncertainties can be addressed during the process of planning, but uncertainties in the operating environment require technical analysis within planning models. Flexibility and robustness are two key classes of strategies for managing the risk posed by these uncertainties. This paper reviews standard capacity expansion planning models and shows that they are poorly equipped to compare risk management strategies. Those that acknowledge uncertainty are better at evaluating robustness than flexibility, which implies a bias against flexible options. Techniques are available to overcome this bias. >

Regional systems, increased competition, and environmental imperatives are forcing a reallocation of state and federal regulatory responsibilities for the US electric power sector. The great extent of regional diversity in the sector raises a policy relevant empirical question. Is this diversity due to choice or circumstance? This paper finds circumstance to be a more significant determinant of fundamental performance than choice, but also finds evidence that decisions at the margin reflect the diverse preferences of regional policies. This suggests a continued role for (more responsive) state level regulation in order to satisfy diverse preferences. Uncertainty about the optimal endpoint of restructing reinforces the value of continued state regulatory experimentation.

Electric utilities around the USA have profound differences in their existing capital stock. These affect the character of regional opportunities for reducing pollutant emissions. This paper introduces a simple system level emissions model and identifies cost-effective pollution reduction strategies for each region, given choices that include life extending existing capacity, investing in new technology, and demand-side management. It shows that superior solutions differ across pollutants and regions. This implies that policy prescriptions to reduce the environmental externalities associated with power production should recognize existing capacity characteristics in order to be efficient.

This paper introduces a simple system-level emissions model suitable for assisting regulators to design efficient integrated resource planning rules. Given choices that include life-extending existing capacity, investing in new generation, and demand-side management, it identifies cost-effective pollution reduction strategies. A set of examples using aggregated regional data shows that superior solutions differ across pollutants and regions. This implies that policy prescriptions should account for differences in existing capacity characteristics in order to be efficient. Specifically, regulations should not focus only on marginal capacity choices, but should compare complete resource portfolios. >

Reliability investments occuring on the customer side of the meter are becoming increasingly important, and warrant consideration when planning utility efforts to improve electricity reliability. This paper presents an end-use approach to the analysis of reliability investments, and suggests that from an economic efficiency perspective, society might prefer a greater emphasis on customer-side reliability investments. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated using utility-supplied end-use data.

There are limited data on air quality parameters, including airborne particulate matter (PM) in residential green buildings, which are increasing in prevalence. Exposure to PM is associated with cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases, and since Americans spend almost 90% of their time indoors, residential exposures may substantially contribute to overall airborne PM exposure. Our objectives were to: (1) measure various PM fractions longitudinally in apartments in multi-family green buildings with natural (Building E) and mechanical (Building L) ventilation; (2) compare indoor and outdoor PM mass concentrations and their ratios (I/O) in these buildings, taking into account the effects of occupant behavior; and (3) evaluate the effect of green building designs and operations on indoor PM. We evaluated effects of ventilation, occupant behaviors, and overall building design on PM mass concentrations and I/O. Median PMTOTAL was higher in Building E (56 µg/m³) than in Building L (37 µg/m³); I/O was higher in Building E (1.3-2.0) than in Building L (0.5-0.8) for all particle size fractions. Our data show that the building design and occupant behaviors that either produce or dilute indoor PM (e.g., ventilation systems, combustion sources, and window operation) are important factors affecting residents' exposure to PM in residential green buildings.

Consumer behavior has significant environmental impacts, and consumers need help from third parties to recognize better choices. Consumers can only improve overall outcomes in concert with proactive producers and an encouraging and informative government. Unintended consequences diminish, but do not extinguish, the effects of sustainable consumption.

I still have my job and home. Nonetheless this recession has taught me some very direct lessons about economics. Like many of you, I now know to spend more prudently, save more, and avoid taking on too much debt. But what about the big picture? What causes the economic fluctuations that give us our booms and busts? Do we know more about them than we did a century ago, or even three years ago? Here are some of the explanations that economists have given for business cycles.

Obama's energy policies need to start domestically but aspire to global influence. The basic philosophy should be to rely on markets whenever they work well, but to step in aggressively when market failures appear. This means making the costs of global warming, air pollution, and energy security visible to energy consumers. It means seeking ways to recirculate more dollars domestically in order to reduce trade deficits. It means encouraging a greater diversity of institutional arrangements in energy industries, perhaps encouraging more community energy cooperatives alongside the investor-owned utilities. It means encouraging regional diversity that takes advantage of local resources, thus producing bioenergy from solid waste in urbanized New Jersey and from switchgrass in rural Kansas. Obama's policies should privilege consumer interests over producer interests when those interests conflict, because everyone is a consumer. Obama should aggressively pursue innovations in the energy sector because they can help sidestep painful tradeoffs among objectives.

An unusual aspect of this conference was its focus on state-level energy and climate policies. The lack of federal leadership on these issues within the U.S.A. has opened a window of opportunity at the state level for policy entrepreneurs. California acted in 2005 with an executive order establishing greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, ratified in 2006 by the state legislature. New Jersey acted in 2007, helped along by the fact-finding, target-setting effort leading to this conference. The thoughtful discussions and careful analysis that played out during 2006 and early 2007 played a role in giving policymakers and stake holders the confidence to act decisively. Thus, by February 2007, New Jersey's governor had penned an executive order setting two greenhouse gas targets: reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and reduce emissions to 80% below current levels by 2050.