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Gold has a far-reaching history of ‘safe haven’ or ‘anchor of stability’. However, the epitome of precious metals has recently deviated from its historical price trend. Fluctuations and volatility have increased too. We argue that gold is not subject to bubbles (due to its scarcity in nature), although its price is. By means of a logical-analytical macroeconomic approach combined with statistical and empirical evidence, we prove that there is excess liquidity in the world economy as a whole, which has been increasingly invested in this precious metal. The paper also shows why the gold price could further rise and/or suddenly decrease. Both scenarios would be possible as soon as speculation kicks in.

In a context of proliferation of quality labels in the agri-food sector, our study proposes an original analysis of consumers' willingness to pay for the organic label on cheeses depending on whether or not the product is under Protected Designation of Origin (PDO). We use data on French consumers' cheese purchases in 2017. We find that consumers are willing to pay more for products with official quality signs, in particular for the organic label (+30% to +90% more). The PDO impact on prices is heterogeneous depending on the market segment considered. In line with the literature, we find that the higher the perceived quality of the PDO product, the lower the organic label effect on its price. Our results also suggest a complementarity effect when PDO products are weakly differentiated., Dans le contexte de profusion des signes de qualité qui caractérise le secteur agroalimentaire, l’originalité de ce papier est d’évaluer la disposition à payer des consommateurs (dap) pour le label Agriculture Biologique (AB), selon que le produit bénéficie ou non d’une Appellation d’Origine Protégée (AOP). L’étude est menée à partir de données d’achats de consommateurs en 2017 sur le marché français des fromages. Nos résultats montrent que les signes officiels de qualité sont le reflet d’une qualité supérieure pour les consommateurs (dap positive), en particulier pour le label AB (entre 30% et 90%). L’effet de l’AOP est hétérogène selon les segments de marchés étudiés. En cohérence avec la littérature, plus la qualité perçue du bien AOP est importante, plus l’effet de l’AB sur le prix est faible. Des effets de complémentarité peuvent apparaître lorsque l’AOP seule est peu différenciante.

Fortschreitender Klimawandel kann aus unterschiedlichen Gründen Nahrungsmittelpreise beeinflussen. Ein Beispiel sind Extremwetterereignisse, die zu Ernteeinbußen führen und kurzfristig die Preise für bestimmte Nahrungsmittel stark erhöhen. Mit fortschreitendem Klimawandel erhöht sich die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass Extremwetterereignisse häufiger auftreten. Haushalte geben, je nach Einkommensstärke, einen unterschiedlich hohen Anteil ihres Nettoeinkommens für Nahrungsmittel aus. Sie sind daher unterschiedlich stark von Nahrungsmittelpreissteigerungen betroffen. Wir untersuchen anhand von 2 Verhaltensszenarien, wie sich der Anteil der Nahrungsmittelausgaben am Nettoeinkommen unterschiedlich einkommensstarker Haushalte in Deutschland verhält, wenn sie bei plakativen Preissteigerungen entweder ihre Nahrungsmittelkäufe unverändert lassen oder gemäß nahrungsmittelspezifischen Elastizitäten anpassen. Wir nutzen für unsere Analyse drei Preissteigerungsszenarien; begründet aus Empirie und Literatur: 4 % Preissteigerung, 12 % Preissteigerung und 40 % Preissteigerung. Unsere Analyse zeigt: Fortschreitender Klimawandel wird negative Verteilungswirkungen bedingen: Haushalte mit geringen Einkommen geben schon jetzt einen deutlichen höheren Teil ihres Einkommens für Nahrungsmittel aus. Bei Preiserhöhungen haben sie weniger Navigationsspielraum, da sie schneller als Haushalte mit höheren Einkommen in die Lage kommen ihre Nahrungsmitteleinkäufe einschränken zu müssen. Wir leiten daher ab: Klimaschutz lohnt sich: Frühzeitig Anreize zu klimafreundlicher Ernährung zu setzen hilft klimawandelbedingte Härten für vulnerable Gruppen abzufedern und sie gemäß des Vorsorgeprinzips gar nicht erst entstehen zu lassen. Climate change can affect food prices for a variety of reasons. One example are extreme weather events that can lead to yield losses which in turn lead to significant, albeit temporary, increases in the prices of certain foods. As climate change progresses, the likelihood increases that such extreme weather events occur more frequently. Households spend different proportions of their net income on food, depending on their income levels. They are therefore affected to different degrees by food price increases. Using two behavioral scenarios, we investigate how the share of food expenditure on net income changes with increasing food prices. We focus on German households with across the range of net income levels. We look at two behavioural cases in view of rising food prices: households leave their food purchases unchanged or adjust them according to food-specific elasticities. We base our analysis on three price increase scenarios, which we derived from empiric data and the literature: 4% price increase, 12% price increase, 40% price increase. Our analysis shows: Progressing climate change will cause negative distributional effects: Low-income households already spend a significantly higher proportion of their income on food. They have less means to maneuver price increases without restricting their food purchases. We derive: Climate protection pays off: Providing incentives for climate-friendly nutrition at an early stage helps to reduce climate change-related burdens for vulnerable groups. These incentives can also prevent these burdens to arise in the first place and in accordance with the precautionary.

This paper discusses the development of consumer prices in the Czech Republic within the context of food prices in the European Union and the global market. The article is identifying the development of the foodstuff consumer prices in the market in the Czech Republic in relation to World and European consumer prices. Subsequently, the development of food consumer prices in the Czech market is analyzed in relation to selected commodities and products marketed in the Czech retail chains. Lastly, the status of individual retail chains in the Czech market is defined and the consumer prices and price differences existing amongst the selected major chains operating on the Czech market are analyzed. In relation to the objectives of this article it is then possible to state the following: prices on the Czech market correlate very strongly, especially in relation to the EU countries markets, but are very weak in relation to the world market. The sensitivity of the Czech consumer prices is very high – it is very flexible towards changes within the framework of the prices levels on the market of the EU but, by contrast, it is completely inflexible in respect to the changes in the prices levels on the world market. The Czech Republic follows the general development price trends existing in the EU countries markets.The growth in food prices on the Czech market is very close to the average growth rate of the food prices index in the EU market. Regarding the prices development on the Czech Republic market, it can be noted that, in relation to particular segments of the commodity food prices, the most dynamic growth was recorded in the case of fruit and vegetables, oils and fats, dairy products, fish and seafood, poultry, beef and cereals and bakery products.It is also important to mention that in the Czech Republic there are no uniform price levels between individual regions. In respect to the nature of the Czech retail market, a comment should be made that on the one hand it is very concentrated – a relatively small number of players control the character of the market – nevertheless, but in comparison with the European average, it can be said that the market is highly competitive, since none of the market subjects clearly dominates. Individual retail chains in their pricing policies more or less follow the general price trends and tendencies, reflecting the development of the domestic market and in, particular, the EU market.

Devolving property rights to local institutions has emerged as a compelling management strategy for natural resource management in developing countries. The use of property rights among fishing cooperatives operating in Mexico's Gulf of California provides a compelling setting for theoretical and empirical analysis. A dynamic theoretical model demonstrates how fishing cooperatives' management choices are shaped by the presence of property rights, the mobility of resources, and predictable environmental fluctuations. More aggressive management comes in the form of the cooperative leadership paying lower prices to cooperative members for their catch, as lower prices disincentivize fishing effort. The model's implications are empirically tested using three years of daily logbook data on prices and catches for three cooperatives from the Gulf of California. One cooperative enjoys property rights while the other two do not. There is empirical evidence in support of the model: compared to the other cooperatives, the cooperative with strong property rights pays members a lower price, pays especially lower prices for less mobile species, and decreases prices when environmental fluctuations cause population growth rates to fall. The results from this case study demonstrate the viability of cooperative management of resources but also point toward quantitatively important limitations created by the mismatch between the scale of a property right and the scale of a resource.

Measuring poverty requires adjusting nominal consumption (or income) into a real value of consumption, across geographic areas and over time. To this end, data on consumer prices are used to construct a price index. There are a range of approaches to do this, from using the consumer price index, to survey-based unit values, which differ in the underlying sources of price data and methodologies for indexing. These different approaches can have large impacts on poverty measures and trends. Surprisingly little attention has been focused on this topic. This study reviews a range of issues and the evidence on how prices matter for measuring poverty, particularly in Africa. It draws on a wide literature, much from developed countries, and offers suggestions for future work in this area.

Although several studies have examined why overall price levels are higher in richer countries, little is known about whether there is a similar relationship at the urban and city level across countries. This paper compares the price levels of cities in Sub-Saharan Africa with those of other regions by analyzing price information collected for the 2011 round of the International Comparison Program. Readjusting the calculated price levels from national to urban levels, the analysis indicates that African cities are relatively more expensive, despite having lower income levels. The price levels of goods and services consumed by households are up to 31percent higher in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other low- and middle-income countries, relative to their income levels. Food and non-alcoholic beverages are especially expensive, with price levels around 35 percent higher than in other countries. The paper also analyzes price information collected by the Economist Intelligence Unit's Worldwide Cost of Living Survey, and obtains a similar result, indicating higher prices of goods and services in African cities.

After 2005, commodity prices experienced their longest and broadest boom since World War II. Agricultural prices have now come down considerably since their 2011 peak, but are still 40 percent higher in real terms than their 2000 lows. This paper briefly addresses the main arguments on the causes of the agricultural price cycle. It broadens the scope of analysis by focusing on six agricultural commodities, and identifies the relative weights of key quantifiable drivers of their prices. It concludes that increases in real income negatively affect real agricultural prices, as predicted by Engel's Law. Energy prices matter most (not surprisingly, given the energy-intensive nature of agriculture), followed by stock-to-use ratios and, to a lesser extent, exchange rate movements. The cost of capital affects prices only marginally, probably because it not only influences demand, but also evokes a supply response.

India has pursued an active food security policy for many years, using a combination of trade policy interventions, public distribution of food staples, and assistance to farmers through minimum support prices defended by public stocks. This policy has been quite successful in stabilizing staple food prices, but at a high cost, and with potential risks of unmanageable stock accumulation. Based on a rational expectations storage model representing the Indian wheat market and its relation to the rest of the world, this paper analyzes the cost and welfare implications of this policy and unpacks the contribution of its different elements. To analyze alternative policies, social welfare is assumed to include an objective of price stabilization and optimal policies corresponding to this objective are assessed. Considering fully optimal policies under commitment as well as optimal simple rules, it is shown that adopting simple rules can achieve most of the gains from fully optimal policies, with both potentially allowing for lower stockholding levels and costs.

Promoting faster growth and poverty alleviation through competition is particularly important for South Africa, which is facing weak economic growth and limited fiscal resources and has to look to avenues outside the fiscal space to stimulate faster sustainable growth and progress towards its ultimate goal of eliminating poverty, outlined in the 2030 National Development Plan (NDP). The update presents a candid assessment of South Africa’s economic prospects. With growth declining in per capita terms the NDP goals are moving further out of reach. South Africa urgently needs fundamental reforms to kick start growth and promote job creation. Advancing with reforms to improve the lives of South Africans is particularly attractive, since they hold the potential to boost growth and speed up poverty alleviation. Competition policy demonstrates the power of bold reform to ease pressures in times of a tight public purse. The report is organized as follows: section one presents economic developments and prospects, and section two presents promoting faster growth and poverty alleviation through effective competition policy.

This paper examines the effects of market integration on household consumption using data on seven food and two energy markets across South Sudan. The analysis reveals that markets in South Sudan are highly segmented. Price differences for narrowly defined products, across cities exceed in some cases 100 percent. In addition, price volatility increased substantially following the imposition of the trade restrictions with Sudan. This increase tends to hurt disproportionately the poor, who cannot smooth purchasing decisions over time because of liquidity constraints. Transportation costs explain almost half of the variation in food prices across space, and improving the quality of roads has a large potential to reduce prices in the most expensive towns. On the basis of this price effect, the simulations suggest that bringing all road quality across states to that of primary roads can yield a reduction in poverty from the rate of 51.7 percent in 2009 to between 42.8 and 46.9 percent. These estimates have to be interpreted as conservative, as they do not take into account the second-order effects of road construction from increased trade that will result from better road connectivity.

In dem Forschungsprojekt zur Kommunikation von Preiserhöhungen wurden zwei Fragenkomplexe untersucht. Zuerst wurde erhoben, wie Unternehmen im Energiesektor ihren Kunden gegenüber höhere Preise kommunizieren. Danach wurden ausgewählte Kommunikationstypen auf ihre Wirkung hin untersucht, zum Vertragswechsel der VerbraucherInnen anzuregen. Insgesamt wird deutlich, dass Energieversorger verschiedene Wege gehen, um die Preiserhöhung weniger negativ erscheinen zu lassen und damit die Kunden vom Versorgerwechsel abzuhalten., Working Papers des KVF NRW

Рассматривается сущность различных подходов к оценке конкурентоспособности промышленной продукции предприятия. Представлены пять видов оценки конкурентоспособности, разнесенных по стадиям жизненного цикла продукции. Доказано, что важность выбора оценки конкурентоспособности, особенно на стадии конструкторской разработки, состоит в достоверности и полноте результатов оценки, что, в свою очередь, влияет на успешность реализации технического проекта. Обоснован основной недостаток существующих методов оценки конкурентоспособности – отсутствие учета фактора времени и динамического изменения показателей конкурентоспособности продукции. Проанализированы современные концепции оценки уровня конкурентоспособности. Показано, что в системе методов оценки конкурентоспособности можно выделить две основные категории – ее показатели и уровень. The content of different approaches, which make it possible to give an estimation to competitiveness of the production of an enterprise is considered. It was introduced five types of competitive assessment, separated by stages of the product life cycle. It has proved that the importance of selecting an estimation of competitiveness especially at the stage of design development is at the reliability and completeness of the evaluation results which in its turn affects on the successful implementation of a technical project. According to the results of the analysis, the conclusion that the main disadvantage in the existing methods is in the absence of the registration of the dynamics of the indices of the productive competitiveness is made. It has considered the modern concept of the competitiveness level evaluating. It has proved that two main categories: its performance and its level – can be identified in the system of the competitiveness evaluation methods.

Beginning with the WTO's Doha Development Agenda and establishment of the Millennium Development Goal of reducing poverty by 50 percent by 2015, poverty impacts of trade reforms have become central to the global development agenda. This has been particularly true of agricultural trade reforms due to the importance of grains in the diets of the poor, presence of relatively higher protection in agriculture, as well as heavy concentration of global poverty in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of income. Yet some in this debate have argued that, given the extreme volatility in agricultural commodity markets, the additional price and therefore poverty impacts due to trade liberalization might well be indiscernible. This paper formally tests the “invisibility hypothesis” using the method of stochastic simulation in a trade-poverty modeling framework. The hypothesis test is based on the comparison of two samples of price and poverty distributions. The first originates solely from the inherent variability in global staple grains markets, while the second combines the effects of inherent market variability with those of trade reform in these same markets. Results, at the national and stratum level indicate that the short-run poverty impacts of full trade liberalization in staple grains trade worldwide, are distinguishable in only four of the fifteen countries, suggesting that impacts of more modest agricultural trade reforms are indeed likely to be invisible in short run. Countries that show statistically significant short run impacts are the ones characterized by high staple grains tariffs and/or a moderate degree of grain markets variability. Within each country, results are heterogeneous. In two thirds of the sample countries, agriculturally self-employed poor experience statistically significant poverty impacts from trade liberalization. However, this figure is under a third for all the other strata. Copyright , Oxford University Press.

Thirty years ago, a vast share of low- and middle-income countries was heavily state controlled. The liberalizations of the 1980s and 1990s had greatly different effects on growth in countries in Africa, Asia, and Europe. A comparative framework is used to document these differences, and a model is developed to formally analyze how liberalization affects production and income distribution when the institutions that govern production and exchange are also affected. Hypotheses are derived for how endogenous institutional adjustments affect the growth response to liberalization. These insights motivate a series of explanations for the differences in performance across regions and commodities following liberalization. Copyright , Oxford University Press.

Income growth in emerging economies has often been cited as a key driver of the past decade’s com-modity price boom—the longest and broadest boom since World War II. This paper shows that income has a negative and highly significant effect on real food commodity prices, a finding that is consistent with Engel’s Law and Kindleberger’s thesis, the predecessors of the Prebisch-Singer hypothe-sis. The paper also shows that, in the long run, income influences real food prices mainly through the manufacturing price channel (the deflator), hence weakening the view that income growth exerts strong upward pressure on food prices. Other (short-term) drivers of food prices include energy costs, inventories, and monetary conditions.

This paper presents first concepts and insights on an International Carbon Asset Reserve. In particular, it explores how different design options can support a range of networked carbon pricing efforts. The report provides an overview of key risks in carbon markets, highlights the benefits of pooling risks on an aggregated scale, and identifies potential design options and structures for an international carbon asset reserve. The paper contributes to the wide effort to promote a long-term price on carbon and carbon market stabilization, comparability, and networking.

Public transfer programs that allow beneficiaries to choose the transferred good may be more efficient, but the poorest beneficiaries may not participate if the good chosen is too costly. A model shows that program targeting and consumption impacts are tied to selected quality of the provided good. Evidence from a randomized trial in rural India in which groups of beneficiaries choose the variety of rice to be offered as a subsidized loan confirms that choosing lower cost goods self-targets the program towards the poorest beneficiaries. Consumption impacts are biggest for wealthiest households and may be negative for moderately poor households.

This study quantifies the relationship between Tanzanian and external maize markets while also accounting for domestic influences. It concludes that external influences on domestic prices originate from regional, rather than global, markets. It also shows that, compared to external factors, domestic factors exert a greater influence on Tanzanian maize markets. Further, the mechanisms through which trade policies influence maize markets involve interactions with both external market shocks and domestic weather shocks. Overall, it provides evidence that the intermittent imposition of export bans in Tanzania has had adverse impacts on its maize markets, and consequently, on the development of its agrarian economy.

Like many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Senegal has struggled to develop its industrial sector in the face of import competition. For basic food products, there is an implicit trade-off between the objectives of maintaining employment and lowering the cost of living, both of which figure prominently in current government policy. Conflicting pressures have led to a rather inconsistent policy mix of high levels of protection with price ceilings. The products of the three industries examined here—sugar, vegetable oil, and flour—account for roughly 14 percent of the consumption basket of the poor, so distortions in their prices can have a significant effect on poverty reduction. This paper compares domestic prices in Senegal with world prices since 2000, and then explains the difference by examining the protection enjoyed by these industries, along with their market structure. The analysis finds that high protection and market power have resulted in domestic prices which were often two or three times the equivalent world price. Tightening of price ceilings and some liberalization have taken place recently, but consumers have continued to pay above world prices for sugar and edible oil in 2014. The paper estimates that if this differential were eliminated, the purchasing power of households around the poverty line would increase by 3 percent, 227,000 people would move above the poverty line, and the national poverty rate would drop by 1.9 percentage points. The cost to consumers far exceeds the total wage bill paid by these industries. Further liberalization of these industries is recommended, along with phasing out price controls and shifting government policy from protecting traditional enterprises to the promotion of new export-oriented ones.

This paper addresses the role of market remoteness in explaining maize price volatility in Burkina Faso. A model of price formation is introduced to demonstrate formally that transport costs between urban and rural markets exacerbate maize price volatility. Empirical support is provided to the proposition by exploring an unusually rich data set of monthly maize price series across 28 markets over 2004-13. The methodology relies on an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to investigate the statistical effect of road quality and distance from urban consumption centers on maize price volatility. The analysis finds that maize price volatility is greatest in remote markets. The results also show that maize-surplus markets and markets bordering Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo have experienced more volatile prices than maize-deficit and non-bordering markets. The findings suggest that enhancing road infrastructure would strengthen the links between rural markets and major consumption centers, thereby also stabilizing maize prices.