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Harga minyak mentah dunia mengalami penurunan yang sangat signifikan karena adanya suatu intervensi, yaitu pandemi COVID-19. Peramalan harga minyak mentah dunia penting dilakukan untuk memberikan informasi terkait fluktuasi harga minyak mentah karena adanya ketidakpastian harga akibat adanya intervensi. Metode untuk memodelkan dan meramalkan data deret waktu yang dipengaruhi oleh intervensi adalah metode analisis intervensi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan model intervensi terbaik dan hasil peramalan harga minyak mentah dunia menggunakan model intervensi terbaik. Tahapan analisis intervensi yaitu membagi data menjadi data sebelum intervensi dan data saat intervensi sampai data terakhir. Data sebelum intervensi digunakan untuk pemodelan ARIMA. Sisaan pada model ARIMA berdasarkan data sebelum intervensi tersebut digunakan untuk identifikasi orde intervensi. Selanjutnya adalah melakukan pendugaan parameter, uji diagnostik, dan melakukan peramalan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model intervensi terbaik adalah model intervensi ARIMA(0,2,2), yang artinya pembedaan data harga minyak mentah dunia dilakukan sebanyak 2 kali, data suatu periode dipengaruhi oleh nilai sisaan 2 periode sebelumnya, serta dipengaruhi oleh orde intervensi b=0, s=0, r=1. Hasil peramalan harga minyak mentah dunia menggunakan model intervensi terbaik menghasilkan harga minyak mentah dunia yang cenderung konstan dengan harga berkisar antara 78 sampai 86 dollar AS per barel dengan MAPE yaitu 9,29%, artinya kemampuan model dalam melakukan peramalan sangat baik. Kata Kunci: Model intervensi, ARIMA, harga minyak mentah dunia, COVID-19

The basic regression model used to analyze the count data is the Poisson regression.. However, applying the Poisson regression model is unsuitable for excess zero data because it can cause overdispersion where the variance data is greater than its mean. One of the developments of the Poisson regression model can overcome this condition, Zero Inflated Poisson Regression (ZIP). In the health sector, the death of pregnant women on the Java island is an event that still rarely occurs and forms an excess zero data structure. However, the analysis of cases of maternal mortality using ZIP regression has never been studied in more depth. In this article, the maternal mortality cases in Java were modelled using ZIP regression to specify the variables that had a significant effect. The initial analysis results indicated the occurrence of overdispersion due to excess zero where there are 52% zero values in the data. The ZIP regression applied in this research provides enhancements to the Poisson regression based on the Vuong test. The results showed that the variables that had a significant effect on the maternal death cases in Java in the count model are the percentage of maternal health service coverage and the percentage of coverage of postpartum visit coverage, while in the zero-inflation model, the percentage of deliveries in health facilities and the percentage of obstetric complications treatment

Path analysis is an analytical method used to analyze direct and indirect effects between variables. This study uses path analysis to identify the direct or indirect effect of factors that are thought to nfluence life expectancy in the central part of Indonesia. The data used is secondary data and was obtained from BPS in 2017. The result of the model fit test show that the resulting model has a chi-square p-value of 0.121, indicating that the mdel is fit. In addition, the RMSEA (Root Mean Square Error of Approximation) value obtained is 0.087, which indicates a relatively small level of approximation error. The CFI (Comparative Fit Index) value obtained is 0.951 and the TLI (Tucker-Lewis Index) value obtained is 0.990. The results of the analysis show that there is a significant direct effect between the per capita expendicture and the average length of schooling on life expectancy. In addition, the average length of school variable also has an indirect effects on life expectancy through the per capita expenditure variable. This indicates that education has a positive impact on increasing per capita expenditure and ultimately contributes to an increase in life expectancy.

Persentase kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Barat masih tergolong cukup tinggi dan masih menjadi fokus perhatian pemerintah. Faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi kemiskinan penting untuk diketahui agar pemerintah mampu membuat suatu kebijakan yang tepat untuk menekan angka kemiskinan. Oleh karena itu, pada penelitian ini, dilakukan suatu analisis untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi tingkat kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Barat. Analisis pada penelitian ini menggunakan metode regresi spasial data panel karena diduga pada data kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Barat terdapat efek spasial dan unit amatan diamati pada jangka waktu tertentu. Model yang terbentuk dari analisis ini adalah Fixed Effect Spatial Error Model karena interaksi spasial yang terbentuk pada data kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Barat nyata pada error. Model ini juga berhasil menjadi model terbaik dibandingkan model lainnya berdasarkan kriteria nilai R-square terbesar. Analisis data kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Barat menggunakan metode regresi spasial data panel memperoleh hasil bahwa usia harapan hidup, pengeluaran per kapita disesuaikan, dan rata-rata lama sekolah berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap persentase penduduk miskin di Provinsi Jawa Barat.

This paper presented the development of the Dick and Carry model steps 1 to 4 of, namely the identification of educational objectives, educational analysis, analysis and context of the learner, and the formulation of performance objectives. The study was conducted from January to April 2020. The participants in this study were high school students from the coastal region of North Jakarta. The sampling technique used in this study was random sampling. The instruments used to collect the research data are the questionnaire/questionnaire, observation, and interview. The data were analyzed in a qualitative description. The results of this study indicate that the formulation of the learning objectives is that students should receive marine education that is integrated with natural science learning in schools, students should be taught using methods of learning that are contextual within the daily problems in the student's home environment, i.e. problem-based learning / problem-solving models, students should be taught using interactive learning aids such as media based on information technology such as mobile learning, the assessments to be developed include 3 aspects namely cognitive, affective and psychomotor. Keywords: Marine environment education, Indonesian coastal areas, Problem-solving, Mobile learning, Student assessment.

The biggest obstacle to sustainable development in Indonesia is due to social-environmental factors. The objective of this study is to identify lever variables in the intended socio-environmental factors through dimensional analysis in sustainable development. By using the path analysis methods and secondary data on economic growth, the number of poor people and an index of environmental quality in Indonesia, 2016, it can be proven that poverty has a direct negative effect on environmental quality. This makes it possible to occur in the rural poverty typology because their needs for life depend on natural resources. Therefore, poverty reduction policies should be prioritized in reducing the number of poor people in rural areas.

Pengguna internet semakin meningkat setiap tahunnya, oleh karena itu dilakukan analisis clus-ter dalam pengklasi kasian pengguna internet setiap provinsi. Hal tersebut dilakukan untuk mengetahui karakteristik setiap kelompok yang terbentuk. Pada jurnal ini, metode cluster yang digunakan adalah metode Average Linkage. Tujuan dari jurnal ini adalah untuk mengetahui proses penglusteran dengan metode Average Linkage dan mengetahui hasil cluster yang terbentuk dengan menggunakan metode tersebut. Dalam metode ini, data pengguna internet daerah pedesaan menurut jenjang pendidikan di Indonesia dihitung kemiripannya untuk dilakukan pengelompokkan. Kemiripan tersebut dihitung meng-gunakan jarak Euclidean, kemudian terbentuk cluster, dan dilakukan perhitungan simpangan baku antar kelompok dan simpangan baku dalam kelompok untuk mengetahui metode cluster yang memiliki kinerja yang baik.

Kanker payudara merupakan kanker paling umum dan paling banyak terjadi pada wanita di seluruh dunia. Di Indonesia sendiri kasus kanker payudara menempati posisi pertama kanker yang paling banyak menyebabkan kematian pada wanita. Tingginya angka kematian karena kanker payudara di Indonesia perlu dicermati dengan tindakan pencegahan dan deteksi dini. Kasus kanker yang ditemukan pada stadium dini serta mendapat pengobatan yang cepat dan tepat akan memberikan kesembuhan dan harapan hidup lebih lama. Ada beberapa faktor yang dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi keberadaan kanker payudara pada tubuh seseorang, diantaranya adalah usia, glukosa, insulin, HOMA (Homeostatic Model Assessment), leptin, adiponektin, resistin, MCP-1 (Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1), serta IMT (Indeks Massa Tubuh). Pada penelitian ini akan dibahas mengenai kemungkinan seseorang menderita kanker payudara berdasarkan faktor-faktor pendorong yang diamati menggunakan metode Naive Bayes. Hasil akurasi yang diperoleh adalah sebesar 80% dimana dari 35 data uji yang diamati terdapat 28 data yang di klasifikasikan dengan tepat dan 7 data yang mengalami kesalahan klasifikasi.

So far poverty alleviation policies are still oriented to the monetary approach, while poverty is multidimensional, this means that multidimensional poverty is defined as the condition of the lack of all existing poverty indicators. This study finds the main deprivation of poverty indicators in each province in Indonesia, so that poverty alleviation programs can be directed and more in line with the main deprivation needs of poverty in an area. Using the data of the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas 2014) and Alkire-Foster’s multidimensional poverty measurement method, and with 12 indicators in three dimensions (health, education, and living standards), found that a priority scale of poverty alleviation assistance required by all provinces in Indonesia based on deprivation primarily a relief program t hat deals with old school problems and immunizations, except in Maluku province is a birth attendant and in Papua is a literacy issue. ------------------------------ Sejauh ini kebijakan pengentasan kemiskinan masih berorientasi pada pendekatan moneter, sementara kemiskinan bersifat multidimensi, ini berarti bahwa kemiskinan multidimensi didefinisikan sebagai kondisi kurangnya semua indikator kemiskinan yang ada. Studi ini menemukan deprivasi utama indikator kemiskinan di setiap provinsi di Indonesia, sehingga program pengentasan kemiskinan dapat diarahkan dan lebih sesuai dengan kebutuhan deprivasi utama kemiskinan di suatu daerah. Berdasarkan data hasil Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional (Susenas) 2014 dan metode pengukuran kemiskinan multidimensi Alkire-Foster, serta 12 indikator dalam tiga dimensi (pendidikan, kesehatan, dan standar hidup), maka ditemukan skala prioritas bantuan pengentasan kemiskinan yang dibutuhkan di seluruh provinsi di Indonesia berdasarkan deprivasi utamanya, yakni program bantuan untuk mengatasi permasalahan lama sekolah dan imunisasi, kecuali di Provinsi Maluku adalah persoalan penolong kelahiran dan di Papua adalah persoalan melek huruf.

The concept of three-dimensional sustainable development requires every country to increase economic growth by using natural resources rationally by considering environmental and social quality as a determinant of public welfare. In Indonesia, there has not been a balance between the three dimensions, for example, DKI Jakarta Province has high economic growth and Human Development Index (HDI), but Environmental Quality Index (EQI) is the worst. Whereas Papua and West Papua have good environmental quality but are not supported by good HDI. Efforts in sustainable development are planned that integrate environmental, social, and economic aspects in development strategies. Therefore, this study used the BPS Statistics-Indonesia data for analyzing the causality between economy, environment, and human development in 33 provinces of Indonesia, from 2013 to 2017. By using the simultaneous equation of the panel data (2SLS) method, it results show that there is a positive simultaneous relationship between HDI, economic growth, and environmental quality. The Variables that influence economic growth are HDI and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Variables that influence environmental quality are economic growth, HDI, FDI, and population, while in human development are economic growth, EQI, and poverty. Human development has a big contribution to the implementation of sustainable development in Indonesia.

Mahatma and Muchtadi-Alamsyah (2017) introduced the notion of the so-called 𝒰-extension modules which is the generalization of the concept of the extension modules. As the classic extension modules induce a long exact sequence of homologies from a given short exact sequence, there is an analogous result in the 𝒰 version in the form of an exact sequence consists of 𝒰-extension modules. It is just that such sequence has only limited number of nonzero modules while the classic one can contain infinitely many. Mahatma and Hadi (2020) proposed sufficient conditions for the sequence so it can be extended. However, it requires some tight assumptions to be hold. In this paper, we shall give another method of extending the sequence so we may avoid the dependency on the additional assumptions.

Children’s subjective well-being from poor families is an important policy issue because it will bring them to a positive adaptation, able to cope with stress, have a vision, good self-esteem and self-concept. This study aims to determine the factors thought to influence the children’s subjective well-being: family’s socio-economic conditions and children’s social emotional health based on structural. Equation modelling. Family’s socio-economic condition was thought to affect children’s social emotional health. The analytical method is Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). The sample in this study was 203 poor children who live in bad environment in Kampung Pulo Villages, East Jakarta. Results of SEM analysis showed that family’s socio-economic conditions variable has a positive direct effect and significant to the social emotional health variable, as well as social emotional health variable has a positive direct effect and significant impact on the subjective well-being of children. Family’s socio-economic conditions variable has indirect effect on subjective well-being through social emotional health variable. The implication of this study is the importance of considering social emotional health as a leverage factors, so that children can have a positive mental attitude.

This paper to find of existing better environmental knowledge regarding the demography and economics aspect in DKI Jakarta Provinces. First, hypotheses asserting relationship between environmental knowledge, and demographic and economic variables are reviewed by logistics binary regression. Second, based on better environmental knowledge variables significantly are compared to determine the ratio between the categorical at each that variables. The analysis unit is the DKI Jakarta population aged 15 and older in 2013 at Environment Caring Attitude Survey be conducted by Statistics-Indonesia. Social Environmental factors is a weak point of the cause of sustainable development cannot run smoothly, enhance one of the factors that need improvement is environmental knowledge. Condition of environmental knowledge in DKI Jakarta Provinces in alert category, and only the higher education variables and the middle income of the population with good environmental knowledge. using The Odds Ratio methods, it will be known the amount of population comparison that has better environmental knowledge for each variable of higher education or middle income.

Kesenjangan digital masih terjadi antara pengguna internet di wilayah perkotaan dan pedesaan Indonesia, oleh karena itu, perlu dilakukan upaya untuk mengelompokan provinsi berdasarkan persentase pengguna internet. Metode pengelompokan yang digunakan adalah metode K-Means Clustering. Tujuan dari studi ini adalah mengelompokan provinsi berdasarkan pengguna internet menjadi tiga cluster untuk mengetahui provinsi-provinsi mana yang memiliki infrastruktur yang baik, sehingga dapat mendukung penggunaan internet. Rata-rata persentase jumlah pengguna internet masing-masing cluster 1, cluster 2, dan cluster 3 adalah 40,91%; 72,27%; dan 57,60%. Perlu adanya pemerataan infrastruktur yang mendukung penggunaan internet pada masyarakat Indonesia.

Let R be commutative algebra with unit element. Given any R -modules M and N, and any nonzero submodule U of M, Mahatma and Muchtadi-Alamsyah defined the k -th U -extension module of N by M for every positive integer k. Further, Mahatma showed that given any short exact sequence of R -modules and R -module homomorphisms, there exists an exact sequence of U -extension modules of N by M. It is just that the sequence consists of only limited number of nonzero modules. In this paper we investigate the conditions needed by the sequence so that it can be extended into a longer one.

An Alternative: Better Life Index as a Measure of Multidimensional Development in Indonesia The purpose of this study is to get value-BLI Better Life Index as a measure of success of development in Indonesia, and to analyze the relationship between BLI with the human development index HDI, index IPR regional development, and economic growth. BLI formation method through three stages: normalization, weighting, and aggregation. The results show that Indonesia’s BLI is in the lower-middle class. Province of Jakarta, East Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Riau and South Sumatra with the highest value of BLI. BLI size has a positive and significant correlation with IPM and IPR compiled by the BPS-Statistics Indonesia. However, BLI was significantly negatively correlated with economic growth. Keywords: Dimension of Development; Better Life Index; Human Development Index; Regional Development Index; Index Economic Growth Abstrak Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mendapatkan nilai Better Life Index (BLI) sebagai ukuran keberhasilan pembangunan di Indonesia, serta menganalisis hubungan antara BLI dengan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM), Indeks Pembangunan Regional (IPR), dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Metode pembentukan BLI melalui tiga tahap: normalisasi, pembobotan, dan agregasi. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa nilai BLI Indonesia termasuk kategori menengah bawah. Provinsi Jakarta, Kalimantan Timur, Sulawesi Utara, Riau, dan Sumatera Selatan dengan nilai BLI tertinggi. Ukuran BLI ini mempunyai korelasi yang positif dan signifikan dengan IPM dan IPR yang disusun oleh Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Namun demikian, BLI berkorelasi negatif secara signifikan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi.

The current measurement of development only considers the achievement of each dimension of development, making it difficult to analyze the success level of sustainable development models. This study provides a development measure based on social, economic and environmental factors for a composite index of development. This composite index was developed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. After undergoing a reduction process using factor analysis, 16 variables were obtained, which can be used to determine the index of sustainable development. The 16 variables selected form three factors, namely social-economic-environment; economic-environment; and social-economic factors. Social-environment has been indicated as a weak point, enhanced sustainable development in Indonesia doesn’t run smoothly. In the future, it is necessary to develop an environmental education curriculum, so that it can create an environmentally conscious culture.The current measurement of development only considers the achievement of each dimension of development, making it difficult to analyze the success level of sustainable development models. This study provides a development measure based on social, economic and environmental factors for a composite index of development. This composite index was developed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. After undergoing a reduction process using factor analysis, 16 variables were obtained, which can be used to determine the index of sustainable development. The 16 variables selected form three factors, namely social-economic-environment; economic-environment; and social-economic factors. Social-environment has been indicated as a weak point, enhanced sustainable development in Indonesia doesn’t run smoothly. In the future, it is necessary to develop an environmental education curriculum, so that it can create an environmentally conscious culture.

Economic growth is one of the indicators of economic development. The effort to increase economic growth doesn’t pay attention to the environment be said the pseudo-economic growth. Using GDP per capita and CO2 emissions as indicators of economic growth and environmental damage, this study aims to examine the relationship between them using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework. The EKC hypothesis proposes a turning point at a certain level of economic growth so that sustainable development can be achieved. This study attempts to estimate EKC in the case of Indonesia for the period 1965-2014 by considering the role of fossil energy consumption. The method of analysis used the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The result showed that Indonesia is at the early stage of EKC. It indicates that an increase in economic growth leads to an increase of CO2 emissions and has not to reach a turning point. The type of fossil energy that has a positive and significant influence on CO2 emissions is oil.