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Realistic representation of monthly sea level anomalies in coastal regions has been a challenge for global ocean reanalyses. This is especially the case in coastal regions where sea levels are influenced by western boundary currents such as near the U.S. Atlantic Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. For these regions, most ocean reanalyses compare poorly to observations. Problems in reanalyses include errors in data assimilation and horizontal resolutions that are too coarse to simulate energetic currents like the Gulf Stream and Loop Current System. However, model capabilities are advancing with improved data assimilation and higher resolution. Here, we show that some current-generation ocean reanalyses produce monthly sea level anomalies with improved skill when compared to satellite altimetry observations of sea surface heights. Using tide gauge observations for coastal verification, we find the highest skill associated with the GLORYS12 and HYCOM ocean reanalyses. Both systems assimilate altimetry observations and have eddy-resolving horizontal resolutions (1/12°). We found less skill in three other ocean reanalyses (ACCESS-S2, ORAS5, and ORAP6) with coarser, though still eddy-permitting, resolutions (1/4°). The operational reanalysis from ECMWF (ORAS5) and their pilot reanalysis (ORAP6) provide an interesting comparison because the latter assimilates altimetry globally and with more weight, as well as assimilating ocean observations over continental shelves. We find these attributes associated with improved skill near many tide gauges. We also assessed an older reanalysis (CFSR), which has the lowest skill likely due to its lower resolution (1/2°) and lack of altimetry assimilation. ACCESS-S2 likewise does not assimilate altimetry, although its skill is much better than CFSR and only somewhat lower than ORAS5. Since coastal flooding is influenced by sea level anomalies, the recent development of skilful ocean reanalyses on monthly timescales may be useful for better understanding the physical processes associated with flood risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite and in‐situ measurements are used in this study to investigate a possible link between the Florida Current transport (FCT) and temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific. Consistent with the geostrophic nature of the current, the FCT variability shows good correspondence with the changes in sea surface height differences (∆SSH) between the eastern (SSHeast) and western (SSHwest) sides of the Florida Straits. While the variability of SSHwest is mostly associated with seasonal and shorter timescale fluctuations of ∆SSH and FCT, changes in SSHeast are strongly related to the interannual variability of ∆SSH and FCT. A significant correlation is found between the FCT and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) on interannual timescales, which explains 21% of the interannual FCT variance. The connection of ONI with FCT is through its impact on SSHeast, associated with the anomalous convergence/divergence in the Caribbean region and the Bahamas forced by ONI‐induced wind stress curl changes. Plain Language Summary: Variations in the Florida Current transport (FCT) have been linked to widespread weather and climate phenomena. Various driving mechanisms for the FCT variability have been proposed, but none can fully explain its wide spectrum variability. In this study, we analyzed in‐situ and satellite observations and found a linear link between the FCT and temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific on interannual timescales. A warming condition in the equatorial Pacific results in low pressure anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure anomalies extended into the Caribbean Sea from the tropical Atlantic. This atmospheric pressure pattern is associated with anticyclonic winds over the Caribbean Sea and the Bahamas that drive anomalous oceanic convergence and, therefore, cause higher sea levels in those regions. A higher sea level near the Bahamas often steepens the sea level slope across the Florida Straits, which corresponds to a stronger FCT. A cooling condition in the equatorial Pacific will have the opposite effect, resulting in a reduced FCT. Key Points: Interannual variations in Florida Current transport are highly correlated with sea level at eastern side of the Florida Straits (SSHeast)Changes in SSHeast exhibit a linear link to warming and cooling conditions in the equatorial PacificThis connection is through the wind stress curl changes remotely forced from the equatorial Pacific [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Processing of three different kinds of drifters to extract the geostrophic component. • The use of drifters leads to a higher improvement than an additional altimeter. • Improvement is of 1% in SLA and 10% in meridional velocities. • Both components of the velocity vector have similar accuracy. Knowledge of ocean surface geostrophic circulation has been greatly improved due to satellite observations. However, it is essential to use different observation sources (satellites and in situ data) in order to improve accuracy and resolution. This study combines along-track Sea Level Anomalies (SLA) with geostrophic velocity estimated from surface drifters to map SLA and associated geostrophic current anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico. Firstly, substantial pre-processing is needed on the drifter data to extract the geostrophic component of the signal in order to be consistent with the physical content provided by altimetry. This step includes estimating and removing the Ekman current, Stokes drift and wind slippage. Three kinds of drifters are used: – Drifters belonging to Woods Hole Group, a CLS Group company that launches their own drifters in the Gulf of Mexico. – Drifters launched in the framework of the Lagrangian Submesoscale ExpeRiment (LASER) campaign (January-April 2016). – Drifters from Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML). Secondly, drifters and along-track SLA from Jason2, HY2, SARAL and Cryosat-2 are combined through multivariate objective analysis to map a daily time series of SLA and associated geostrophic current anomalies from 01/09/2015 to 30/04/2016. Finally, comparisons with independent data reveal the improved agreement of maps combining both altimetry and drifter data, especially for the meridional component of geostrophic current. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eddies and fronts created by geostrophic balance between counter-rotating currents are hydrodynamic processes that concentrate or dilute plankton and suspended material by physical processes of accumulation, retention, or dispersion. Over Campeche Canyon, in the southern Gulf of Mexico, observations revealed an anticyclonic eddy, a cyclonic current off the continental shelf, and an associated thermal front in their common boundary. Along this front there was high Trichodesmium spp. occurrence. Three water masses were found in the upper 120 m layer: Caribbean Tropical Surface Water (CTSW), Caribbean Subtropical Underwater (CSUW), and Gulf Common Water (GCW). The frontal zone between the warm core and cyclonic circulation was observed below the hot summertime mixed layer. The presence of Trichodesmium spp. was associated with the front, indicating its influence on the distribution of this diazotrophic cyanobacterium that enters the Campeche Canyon region via modified CTSW. The associated phytoplankton was dominated by tropical oceanic species of diatoms and dinoflagellates, especially species of Ceratium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data assimilation methods often use an ensemble to represent the background error covariance. Two approaches are commonly used; a simple one with a static ensemble, or a more advanced one with a dynamic ensemble. The latter is often non-practical due to its high computational requirements. Some recent studies suggested using a hybrid covariance, which is a linear combination of the covariances represented by a static and a dynamic ensemble. Here, the use of the hybrid covariance is first extensively tested with a quasi-geostrophic model and with different analysis schemes, namely the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and the Ensemble Square Root Filter (ESRF). The hybrid covariance ESRF (ESRF-OI) is more accurate and more stable than the hybrid covariance EnKF (EnKF-OI), but the overall conclusions are similar regardless of the analysis scheme used. The benefits of using the hybrid covariance are large compared to both the static and the dynamic methods with a small dynamic ensemble. The benefits over the dynamic methods become negligible, but remain, for large dynamic ensembles. The optimal value of the hybrid blending coefficient appears to decrease exponentially with the size of the dynamic ensemble. Finally, we consider a realistic application with the assimilation of altimetry data in a hybrid coordinate ocean model (HYCOM) for the Gulf of Mexico, during the shedding of Eddy Yankee (2006). A 10-member EnKF-OI is compared to a 10-member EnKF and a static method called the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI). While 10 members seem insufficient for running the EnKF, the 10-member EnKF-OI reduces the forecast error compared to the EnOI, and improves the positions of the fronts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamical systems theory is employed to study the irregular Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico using a short database of shedding periods and north–south positions of the current. Two independent tests based on these data suggest that the Loop Current is not chaotic but behaves as a nonlinear driven and dampened oscillator with a very short memory. It is suggested that this current varies around a limit-cycle elliptical attractor. It was found that the amplitude and period of the oscillation vary at time scales of 3–5 yr, a time scale that agrees with those of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and/or ENSO; however, it is proposed that NAO provides the link between these systems. The proposed mechanism is the ITCZ changes caused by NAO, which affects the wind strength and the transport across the Yucatan Channel. A forecasting scheme that allows for prediction of the next eddy-shedding period from knowledge of the last shedding event, a condition caused by the short memory of the system, is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]