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Background: Adverse events of the fractured vertebra (AEFV) post-percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP) can lead to recurrent pain and neurological damage, which considerably affect the prognosis of patients and the quality of life. This study aimed to analyze the risk factors of AEFV and develop and select the optimal risk prediction model for AEFV to provide guidance for the prevention of this condition and enhancement of clinical outcomes. Methods: This work included 383 patients with primary osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF) who underwent PKP. The patients were grouped based on the occurrence of AEFV postsurgery, and data were collected. Group comparisons and correlation analysis were conducted to identify potential risk factors, which were then included in the five prediction models. The performance indicators served as basis for the selection of the best model. Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed the following independent risk factors for AEFV: kissing spine (odds ratio (OR) = 8.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46–49.02), high paravertebral muscle fat infiltration grade (OR = 29.19, 95% CI 4.83–176.04), vertebral body computed tomography value (OR = 0.02, 95% CI 0.003–0.13, P < 0.001), and large Cobb change (OR = 5.31, 95% CI 1.77–15.77). The support vector machine (SVM) model exhibited the best performance in the prediction of the risk of AEFV. Conclusion: Four independent risk factors were identified of AEFV, and five risk prediction models that can aid clinicians in the accurate identification of high-risk patients and prediction of the occurrence of AEFV were developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Predictive modeling based on multi-omics data, which incorporates several types of omics data for the same patients, has shown potential to outperform single-omics predictive modeling. Most research in this domain focuses on incorporating numerous data types, despite the complexity and cost of acquiring them. The prevailing assumption is that increasing the number of data types necessarily improves predictive performance. However, the integration of less informative or redundant data types could potentially hinder this performance. Therefore, identifying the most effective combinations of omics data types that enhance predictive performance is critical for cost-effective and accurate predictions. Methods: In this study, we systematically evaluated the predictive performance of all 31 possible combinations including at least one of five genomic data types (mRNA, miRNA, methylation, DNAseq, and copy number variation) using 14 cancer datasets with right-censored survival outcomes, publicly available from the TCGA database. We employed various prediction methods and up-weighted clinical data in every model to leverage their predictive importance. Harrell's C-index and the integrated Brier Score were used as performance measures. To assess the robustness of our findings, we performed a bootstrap analysis at the level of the included datasets. Statistical testing was conducted for key results, limiting the number of tests to ensure a low risk of false positives. Results: Contrary to expectations, we found that using only mRNA data or a combination of mRNA and miRNA data was sufficient for most cancer types. For some cancer types, the additional inclusion of methylation data led to improved prediction results. Far from enhancing performance, the introduction of more data types most often resulted in a decline in performance, which varied between the two performance measures. Conclusions: Our findings challenge the prevailing notion that combining multiple omics data types in multi-omics survival prediction improves predictive performance. Thus, the widespread approach in multi-omics prediction of incorporating as many data types as possible should be reconsidered to avoid suboptimal prediction results and unnecessary expenditure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The aim of this study was to compare hematological parameters preand early post-chemotherapy, and evaluate their values for predicting febrile neutropenia (FN). Methods: Patients diagnosed with malignant solid tumors receiving chemotherapy were included. Blood cell counts peri-chemotherapy and clinical information were retrieved from the hospital information system. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method for variable selection and fitted selected variables to a logistic model. We assessed the performance of the prediction model by the area under the ROC curve. Results: The study population consisted of 4,130 patients with common solid tumors receiving a three-week chemotherapy regimen in Sichuan Cancer Hospital from February 2019 to March 2022. In the FN group, change percentage of neutrophil count decreased less (-0.02, CI: -0.88 to 3.48 vs. -0.04, CI: -0.83 to 2.24). Among hematological parameters, lower postchemotherapy lymphocyte count (OR 0.942, CI: 0.934-0.949), change percentage of platelet (OR 0.965, CI: 0.955-0.975) and higher change percentage of post-chemotherapy neutrophil count (OR 1.015, CI: 1.011- 1.018), and pre-chemotherapy NLR (OR 1.002, CI: 1.002-1.002) predicted an increased risk of FN. These factors improved the predicting model based on clinical factors alone. The AUC of the combination model was 0.8275. Conclusion: Peri-chemotherapy hematological markers improve the prediction of FN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting the electricity market, even in the short term, is a difficult task, due to the nature of this commodity, the lack of storage capacity, and the multiplicity and volatility of factors that influence its price. The sensitivity of the market results in the appearance of anomalies in the market, during which forecasting models often break down. The aim of this paper is to present the possibility of using hybrid machine learning models to forecast the price of electricity, especially when such events occur. It includes the automatic detection of anomalies using three different switch types and two independent forecasting models, one for use during periods of stable markets and the other during periods of anomalies. The results of empirical tests conducted on data from the Polish energy market showed that the proposed solution improves the overall quality of prediction compared to using each model separately and significantly improves the quality of prediction during anomaly periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In urban building management, accurate prediction of building energy consumption is significant in realizing energy conservation and improving energy efficiency. Due to the complexity and variability of energy consumption data, existing prediction models face the challenge of difficult parameter selection, which directly affects their accuracy and application. To solve this problem, this study proposes an improved particle swarm algorithm (IPSO) for optimizing the parameters of the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and constructing an energy consumption prediction model based on IPSO-LSSVM. The model fully combines the advantages of LSSVM in terms of nonlinear fitting and generalization ability and uses the IPSO algorithm to adjust the parameters precisely. By analyzing the sample data characteristics and validating them on two different types of building energy consumption datasets, the results of the study show that, compared with traditional baseline models such as back-propagation neural networks (BP) and support vector regression (SVR), the model proposed in this study is more accurate and efficient in parameter selection and significantly reduces the prediction error rate. This improved approach not only improves the accuracy of building energy consumption prediction but also enhances the robustness and adaptability of the model, which provides reliable methodological support for the development of more effective energy-saving strategies and optimization of energy use to achieve the goal of energy-saving and consumption reduction and provides a new solution for the future management of building energy consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multiple organ failure/dysfunction syndrome (MOF/MODS) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity among severe trauma patients. Current clinical practices entail monitoring physiological measurements and applying clinical score systems to diagnose its onset. Instead, we aimed to develop an early prediction model for MOF outcome evaluated soon after traumatic injury by performing machine learning analysis of genome-wide transcriptome data from blood samples drawn within 24 h of traumatic injury. We then compared its performance to baseline injury severity scores and detection of infections. Methods: Buffy coat transcriptome and linked clinical datasets from blunt trauma patients from the Inflammation and the Host Response to Injury Study ("Glue Grant") multi-center cohort were used. According to the inclusion/exclusion criteria, 141 adult (age ≥ 16 years old) blunt trauma patients (excluding penetrating) with early buffy coat (≤ 24 h since trauma injury) samples were analyzed, with 58 MOF-cases and 83 non-cases. We applied the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms to select features and develop models for MOF early outcome prediction. Results: The LASSO model included 18 transcripts (AUROC [95% CI]: 0.938 [0.890–0.987] (training) and 0.833 [0.699–0.967] (test)), and the XGBoost model included 41 transcripts (0.999 [0.997–1.000] (training) and 0.907 [0.816–0.998] (test)). There were 16 overlapping transcripts comparing the two panels (0.935 [0.884–0.985] (training) and 0.836 [0.703–0.968] (test)). The biomarker models notably outperformed models based on injury severity scores and sex, which we found to be significantly associated with MOF (APACHEII + sex—0.649 [0.537–0.762] (training) and 0.493 [0.301–0.685] (test); ISS + sex—0.630 [0.516–0.744] (training) and 0.482 [0.293–0.670] (test); NISS + sex—0.651 [0.540–0.763] (training) and 0.525 [0.335–0.714] (test)). Conclusions: The accurate assessment of MOF from blood samples immediately after trauma is expected to aid in improving clinical decision-making and may contribute to reduced morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. Moreover, understanding the molecular mechanisms involving the transcripts identified as important for MOF prediction may eventually aid in developing novel interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In sepsis, the relationship between lymphocyte counts and patient outcomes is complex. Lymphocytopenia and lymphocytosis significantly influence survival, illustrating the dual functionality of lymphocytes in responding to infections. This study investigates this complex interaction, focusing on how variations in lymphocyte counts correlate with all-cause hospital mortality among sepsis patients. Methods: This retrospective cohort study analyzed data from two extensive critical care databases: the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV 2.0 (MIMIC-IV 2.0) from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts, and the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD), which was Multi-center database from over 200 hospitals across the United States conducted by Philips eICU Research Institute. We included adult patients aged 18 years and older who met the Sepsis-3 criteria, characterized by documented or suspected infection and a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score of 2 or higher. Sepsis patients were categorized into quartiles based on lymphocyte counts. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality in the hospital, with 90 and 60-day all-cause mortality as the secondary outcomes. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regressions were utilized to assess lymphocyte counts' impact on hospital mortality. An adjusted restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis was performed to elucidate this relationship further. Subgroup analyses were also conducted to explore the association across various comorbidity groups among sepsis and septic shock patients. Results: Our study included 37,054 patients, with an observed in-hospital mortality rate of 16.6%. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models showed that lymphocyte counts were independently associated with in-hospital mortality (HR = 1.04, P < 0.01; HR = 1.06, P < 0.01). RCS regression analysis revealed a U-shaped relationship between lymphocyte levels and hospital mortality risk in sepsis and septic shock patients (P for overall < 0.001, P for nonliner < 0.01; P for overall = 0.002, P for nonliner = 0.014). Subgroup analyses revealed that elevated lymphocyte counts correlated with increased hospital mortality among sepsis patients with liver disease and requiring renal replacement therapy (P for overall = 0.021, P for nonliner = 0.158; P for overall = 0.025, P for nonliner = 0.759). These findings suggest that lymphocytes may have enhanced prognostic value in specific subsets of critically ill sepsis patients. Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate that lymphocyte counts are a significant independent predictor of hospital mortality in sepsis and septic shock patients. We observed a U-shaped association between lymphocyte levels and mortality risk, indicating that high and low counts are linked to increased mortality. This result highlights the complex role of lymphocytes in sepsis outcomes and suggests the need for further investigation into the underlying mechanisms and potential therapeutic approaches. Integrating lymphocyte count assessment into risk stratification algorithms and clinical decision support tools could enhance the early identification of high-risk sepsis patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep-sea mining, as a critical direction for the future development of mineral resources, places significant importance on the mechanical characteristics of its transportation pipelines for the safety and efficiency of the entire mining system. This paper establishes a simulation model of the deep-sea mining system based on oceanic environmental loads and the mechanical theory of deep-sea mining transportation pipelines. Through a static analysis, the effective tension along the pipeline length, the maximum values of bending moment, and the minimum values of bending radius are determined as critical points for the dynamic analysis of pipeline mechanical characteristic monitoring. A dynamic simulation analysis of the pipeline's mechanical characteristics was conducted, and simulation sensor data were obtained as inputs for the prediction model construction. A prediction model of pipeline mechanical characteristics based on the BP neural network was constructed, with the model's prediction correlation coefficients all exceeding 0.95, enabling an accurate prediction of pipeline state parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Previous cross-sectional investigations by Shany and colleagues have provided evidence of double dissociation among dyslexics between word reading accuracy and (pure) word reading rate. A rate-disabled subtype (with intact reading accuracy) evinced deficits only in rapid naming (RAN); An accuracy-disabled subtype (with intact reading rate) showed deficits in phonological awareness (PA) and morphological awareness (MA) but not RAN. Method: The present longitudinal study followed 639 Palestinian Arabicspeaking children from preschool to Grade 1 with the aim of determining (1) whether a dissociation between PA C MA and RAN is apparent among preliterate preschoolers, (2) whether the PA C MA-disabled subgroup constitutes a mild form of Developmental Language Disorder (DLD), (3) whether our three disabled subgroups (PA C MA-only, RAN-only, and PA C MA-plus-RAN) can be differentiated on preschool early literacy measures and, (4) whether the three at-risk subgroups develop into selectively rate-disabled, accuracy-disabled, or doubly-disabled (accuracy C rate) readers in Grade 1? Results: Our findings confirmed the existence of two distinct selectively disabled/at-risk subgroups in preschool: a RAN-only subgroup with intact PA and MA and a PA C MA subgroup with broad impairments across language measures but intact RAN. Grade 1 reading data also confirmed that the RAN-disabled subgroup became slow but accurate readers, whereas the PA C MA subgroup developed into inaccurate and slow readers. Discussion: Our study indicates partial dissociation between early dyslexia subtypes, each displaying distinct and non-overlapping cognitive-linguistic profiles in preschool. The study also revealed a strong association between reading accuracy and reading rate among beginning readers. This study emphasizes the importance of considering heterogeneity in reading outcomes as well as multiple oral language skills beyond the well-documented role of PA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating and mitigating the adverse effects of the ionosphere on communication, navigation, and other services, as well as fully utilizing the ionosphere, have become increasingly prominent topics in the academic community. To quantify the dynamical changes and improve the prediction accuracy of the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC), we propose a prediction model based on grid-optimized Support Vector Regression (SVR). This modeling processes include three steps: (1) dividing the dataset for training, validation, and testing; (2) determining the hyperparameters C and g by the grid search method through cross-validation using training and validation data; and (3) testing the trained model using the test data. Taking the Gakona station as an example, we compared the proposed model with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model and a TEC prediction model based on Statistical Machine Learning (SML). The performance of the models was evaluated using the metrics of mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The specific results are as follows: the MAE of the CCIR, URSI, SML, and SVR models compared to the observations are 1.06 TECU, 1.41 TECU, 0.7 TECU, and 0.54 TECU, respectively; the RMSE are 1.36 TECU, 1.62 TECU, 0.92 TECU, and 0.68 TECU, respectively. These results indicate that the SVR model has the most minor prediction error and the highest accuracy for predicting TEC. This method also provides a new approach for predicting other ionospheric parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: The incidence of metastatic melanoma is rising, making it imperative to identify patients who do not benefit from immunotherapy. This study aimed to develop a radiomic biomarker, using segmentations from 146 baseline and 146 first follow-up CT scans, to predict best overall response, progression-free survival, and overall survival across various immunotherapies. We volumetrically segmented the total tumour load, excluding cerebral metastases. This study also examined whether reducing the number of segmented metastases per patient affects predictive accuracy. The findings suggest that delta radiomics could enhance the prediction of best overall response, progression-free survival, and overall survival in metastatic melanoma patients undergoing first-line immunotherapy. Although volumetric whole tumour load segmentation is complex, it may provide predictive benefits. Background: The prevalence of metastatic melanoma is increasing, necessitating the identification of patients who do not benefit from immunotherapy. This study aimed to develop a radiomic biomarker based on the segmentation of all metastases at baseline and the first follow-up CT for the endpoints best overall response (BOR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS), encompassing various immunotherapies. Additionally, this study investigated whether reducing the number of segmented metastases per patient affects predictive capacity. Methods: The total tumour load, excluding cerebral metastases, from 146 baseline and 146 first follow-up CTs of melanoma patients treated with first-line immunotherapy was volumetrically segmented. Twenty-one random forest models were trained and compared for the endpoints BOR; PFS at 6, 9, and 12 months; and OS at 6, 9, and 12 months, using as input either only clinical parameters, whole-tumour-load delta radiomics plus clinical parameters, or delta radiomics from the largest ten metastases plus clinical parameters. Results: The whole-tumour-load delta radiomics model performed best for BOR (AUC 0.81); PFS at 6, 9, and 12 months (AUC 0.82, 0.80, and 0.77); and OS at 6 months (AUC 0.74). The model using delta radiomics from the largest ten metastases performed best for OS at 9 and 12 months (AUC 0.71 and 0.75). Although the radiomic models were numerically superior to the clinical model, statistical significance was not reached. Conclusions: The findings indicate that delta radiomics may offer additional value for predicting BOR, PFS, and OS in metastatic melanoma patients undergoing first-line immunotherapy. Despite its complexity, volumetric whole-tumour-load segmentation could be advantageous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The continuous increase in the penetration rate of autonomous vehicles in highway traffic flow has become an irreversible development trend; in this paper, a novel hybrid prediction model of deep sequence learning and an integrated decision tree is proposed for human–machine mixed driving heterogeneous traffic flow scenarios, so as to realize the accurate prediction of the driving intention of the target vehicle in the traffic environment by autonomous vehicles (AVs). Firstly, the hybrid model uses the attention mechanism-based double-layer gated network model (Bilayer-GRU-Att) to effectively capture the time sequence dependence of the target vehicle's driving state, and then accurately calculate its trajectory data in different prediction time-domains (tpred). Furthermore, the hybrid model introduces the eXtreme Gradient Boosting decision tree optimized by the Grey Wolf Optimization model (GWO-XGBoost) to identify the lane-changing intention of the target vehicle, because the prediction information of the future trajectory data of the target vehicle by the aforementioned Bilayer-GRU-Att model is properly integrated. The GWO-XGBoost model can accurately predict the lane-changing intention of the target vehicle in different prediction time-domains. Finally, the efficacy of this hybrid model was tested using the HighD dataset for training, validation, and testing purposes. The results of a benchmark analysis indicate that the hybrid model proposed in this paper has the best error evaluation index and balanced prediction time consuming index under the six prediction time-domains. Meanwhile, the hybrid model demonstrates the best classifying performance in predicting the lane-changing intentions of "turning left", "going straight", and "turning right" driving behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction of the containerized freight index has important economic and social significance. Previous research has mostly applied sub-predictors directly for integration, which cannot be optimized for different datasets. To fill this research gap and improve prediction accuracy, this study innovatively proposes a new prediction model based on adaptive model selection and multi-objective ensemble to predict the containerized freight index. The proposed model comprises the following four modules: adaptive data preprocessing, model library, adaptive model selection, and multi-objective ensemble. Specifically, an adaptive data preprocessing module is established based on a novel modal decomposition technology that can effectively reduce the impact of perturbations in historical data on the prediction model. Second, a new model library is constructed to predict the subseries, consisting of four basic predictors. Then, the adaptive model selection module is established based on Lasso feature selection to choose valid predictors for subseries. For the subseries, different predictors can produce different effects; thus, to obtain better prediction results, the weights of each predictor must be reconsidered. Therefore, a multi-objective artificial vulture optimization algorithm is introduced into the multi-objective ensemble module, which can effectively improve the accuracy and stability of the prediction model. In addition, an important discovery is that the proposed model can acquire different models, adaptively varying with different extracted data features in various datasets, and it is common for multiple models or no model to be selected for the subseries.The proposed model demonstrates superior forecasting performance in the real freight market, achieving average MAE, RMSE, MAPE, IA, and TIC values of 9.55567, 11.29675, 0.44222%, 0.99787, and 0.00268, respectively, across four datasets. These results indicate that the proposed model has excellent predictive ability and robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prognosis of patients with IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is variable but overall not good. Almost all patients with IgAN are at risk of developing end-stage renal disease within their expected lifetime. The models presently available for prediction of the risk of progression of IgAN, including the International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool, consist of traditional clinical, pathological, and therapeutic indicators. Finding biomarkers to improve the existing risk prediction models or replace pathological indicators is important for clinical practice. Many studies have attempted to identify biomarkers for prediction of progression of IgAN, such as galactose-deficient IgA1, complement, a spectrum of protein biomarkers, non-coding RNA, and shedding cells. This article reviews the biomarkers of progression of IgAN identified in recent years, with a focus on those with clinical value, in particular the combination of multiple biomarkers into a biomarker spectrum. Future research should focus on establishing a model based primarily on biomarkers that can predict progression of IgAN and testing it in various patient cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is the primary cause of maternal mortality globally, with uterine atony being the predominant contributing factor. However, accurate prediction of PPH in the general population remains challenging due to a lack of reliable biomarkers. Methods: Using retrospective cohort data, we quantified 48 cytokines in plasma samples from 40 women diagnosed with PPH caused by uterine atony. We also analyzed previously reported hemogram and coagulation parameters related to inflammatory response. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and logistic regression were applied to develop predictive models. Established models were further evaluated and temporally validated in a prospective cohort. Results: Fourteen factors showed significant differences between the two groups, among which IL2Ra, IL9, MIP1b, TNFb, CTACK, prenatal Hb, Lymph%, PLR, and LnSII were selected by LASSO to construct predictive model A. Further, by logistic regression, model B was constructed using prenatal Hb, PLR, IL2Ra, and IL9. The area under the curve (AUC) values of model A in the training set, internal validation set, and temporal validation set were 0.846 (0.757–0.934), 0.846 (0.749–0.930), and 0.875 (0.789–0.961), respectively. And the corresponding AUC values for model B were 0.805 (0.709–0.901), 0.805 (0.701–0.894), and 0.901 (0.824–0.979). Decision curve analysis results showed that both nomograms had a high net benefit for predicting atonic PPH. Conclusion: We identified novel biomarkers and developed predictive models for atonic PPH in women undergoing “low-risk” vaginal delivery, providing immunological insights for further exploration of the mechanism underlying atonic PPH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The global COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in over seven million deaths, and IFI can further complicate the clinical course of COVID-19. Coinfection of COVID-19 and IFI (secondary IFI) pose significant threats not only to healthcare systems but also to patient lives. After the control measures for COVID-19 were lifted in China, we observed a substantial number of ICU patients developing COVID-19-associated IFI. This creates an urgent need for predictive assessment of COVID-19 patients in the ICU environment for early detection of suspected fungal infection cases. Methods: This study is a single-center, retrospective research endeavor. We conducted a case-control study on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive patients. The cases consisted of patients who developed any secondary IFI during their ICU stay at Jilin University China-Japan Union Hospital in Changchun, Jilin Province, China, from December 1st, 2022, to August 31st, 2023. The control group consisted of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients without secondary IFI. Descriptive and comparative analyses were performed, and a logistic regression prediction model for secondary IFI in COVID-19 patients was established. Additionally, we observed an increased incidence of COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) during this pandemic. Therefore, we conducted a univariate subgroup analysis on top of IFI, using non-CAPA patients as the control subgroup. Results: From multivariate analysis, the prediction model identified 6 factors that are significantly associated with IFI, including the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics for more than 2 weeks (aOR=4.14, 95% CI 2.03-8.67), fever (aOR=2.3, 95%CI 1.16-4.55), elevated log IL-6 levels (aOR=1.22, 95% CI 1.04-1.43) and prone position ventilation (aOR=2.38, 95%CI 1.15-4.97) as independent risk factors for COVID-19 secondary IFI. High BMI (BMI = 28 kg/m²) (aOR=0.85, 95% CI 0.75-0.94) and the use of COVID-19 immunoglobulin (aOR=0.45, 95% CI 0.2-0.97) were identified as independent protective factors against COVID-19 secondary IFI. The Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) of this model was 0.81, indicating good classification. Conclusion: We recommend paying special attention for the occurrence of secondary IFI in COVID-19 patients with low BMI (BMI < 28 kg/m²), elevated log IL-6 levels and fever. Additionally, during the treatment of COVID-19 patients, we emphasize the importance of minimizing the duration of broad-spectrum antibiotic use and highlight the potential of immunoglobulin application in reducing the incidence of IFI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This systematic review aims to assist clinical decision-making in selecting appropriate preoperative prediction methods for difficult tracheal intubation by identifying and synthesizing literature on these methods in adult patients undergoing all types of surgery. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted following PRISMA guidelines. Comprehensive electronic searches across multiple databases were completed on March 28, 2023. Two researchers independently screened, selected studies, and extracted data. A total of 227 articles representing 526 studies were included and evaluated for bias using the QUADAS-2 tool. Meta-Disc software computed pooled sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPC), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR). Heterogeneity was assessed using the Spearman correlation coefficient, Cochran's-Q, and I2 index, with meta-regression exploring sources of heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated using Deeks' funnel plot. Results: Out of 2906 articles retrieved, 227 met the inclusion criteria, encompassing a total of 686,089 patients. The review examined 11 methods for predicting difficult tracheal intubation, categorized into physical examination, multivariate scoring system, and imaging test. The modified Mallampati test (MMT) showed a SEN of 0.39 and SPC of 0.86, while the thyromental distance (TMD) had a SEN of 0.38 and SPC of 0.83. The upper lip bite test (ULBT) presented a SEN of 0.52 and SPC of 0.84. Multivariate scoring systems like LEMON and Wilson's risk score demonstrated moderate sensitivity and specificity. Imaging tests, particularly ultrasound-based methods such as the distance from the skin to the epiglottis (US-DSE), exhibited higher sensitivity (0.80) and specificity (0.77). Significant heterogeneity was identified across studies, influenced by factors such as sample size and study design. Conclusion: No single preoperative prediction method shows clear superiority for predicting difficult tracheal intubation. The evidence supports a combined approach using multiple methods tailored to specific patient demographics and clinical contexts. Future research should focus on integrating advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and deep learning to improve predictive models. Standardizing testing procedures and establishing clear cut-off values are essential for enhancing prediction reliability and accuracy. Implementing a multi-modal predictive approach may reduce unanticipated difficult intubations, improving patient safety and outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cervical cancer (CC) remains the second leading cause of cancerrelated death in women, and the ability to accurately anticipate the presence or absence of lymphovascular space invasion (LVSI) is critical to maintaining optimal patient outcomes. The objective of this study was to establish and verify an MRI radiomics-based model to predict the status of LVSI in patients with operable CC. Methods: The current study performed a retrospective analysis, with 86 patients in the training cohort and 38 patients in the testing group, specifically focusing on patients with CC. The radiomics feature extraction process included ADC, T2WISPAIR, and T2WI sequences. The training group data were used for the initial radionics-based model building, and the model predictive performance was subsequently validated using data from patients recruited in the experimental group. Results: The development of the radiomics scoring model has been completed with 17 selected features. The study found several risk factors associated with LVSI. These risk factors included moderate tumor differentiation (P = 0.005), poor tumor differentiation (P = 0.001), and elevated combined sequence-based radiomics scores (P = 0.001). Radiomics scores based on predictive model, combined sequences, ADC, T2WI-SPAIR, and T2WI exhibited AUCs of 0.897, 0.839, 0.815, 0.698, and 0.739 in the training cohort, respectively, with corresponding testing cohort values of 0.833, 0.833, 0.683, 0.692, and 0.725. Excellent consistency was shown by the calibration curve analysis, which showed a higher degree of agreement between the actual and anticipated LVSI status. Moreover, the decision curve analysis outcomes demonstrated the medical application of this prediction model. Conclusion: This investigation indicated that the MRI radiomics model was successfully developed and validated to predict operable CC patient LVSI status, attaining high overall diagnostic accuracy. However, further external validation and more deeper analysis on a larger sample size are still needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we apply the Fourier neural operator (FNO) paradigm to ocean circulation and prediction problems. We aim to show that the complicated nonlinear dynamics of an ocean circulation can be captured by a flexible, efficient, and expressive structure of the FNO networks. The machine learning model (FNO3D and the recurrent FNO2D networks) trained by simulated data as well as real data takes spatiotemporal input and predicts future ocean states (sea surface current and sea surface height). For this, the double gyre ocean circulation model driven by stochastic wind stress is considered to represent an ideal ocean circulation. In order to generate the training and test data that exhibits rich spatiotemporal variability, the initial states are perturbed by Gaussian random fields. Experimental results confirm that the trained models yield satisfactory prediction accuracy for both types of FNO models in this case. Second, as the training set, we used the HYCOM reanalysis data in a regional ocean. FNO2D experiments demonstrated that the 5-day input to 5-day prediction yields the averaged root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 5.0 cm/s, 6.7 cm/s, 7.9 cm/s, 8.9 cm/s, and 9.4 cm/s in surface current, calculated consecutively for each day, in a regional ocean circulation of the East/Japan Sea. Similarly, the RMSEs for sea surface height were 2.3 cm, 3.5 cm, 4.2 cm, 4.6 cm, and 4.9 cm, for each day. We also trained the model with 15-day input and 10-day prediction, resulting in comparable performance. Extensive numerical tests show that, once learned, the resolution-free FNO model instantly forecasts the ocean states and can be used as an alternative fast solver in various inference algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a comprehensive approach to predicting short-term (for the upcoming 2 weeks) changes in estuarine dissolved oxygen concentrations via machine learning models that integrate historical water sampling, historical and upcoming 2-week meteorological data, and river discharge and discharge metrics. Dissolved oxygen is a critical indicator of ecosystem health, and this approach is implemented for the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina, U.S.A., which has a long history of hypoxia-related habitat degradation. Through meticulous data preprocessing and feature selection, this research evaluates the predictions of dissolved oxygen concentrations by comparing a recurrent neural network with four other models, including a Multilayer Perceptron, Long Short-Term Memory, Gradient Boosting, and AutoKeras, through sensitivity experiments. The input predictors to our prediction models include water temperature, turbidity, chlorophyll-a, aggregated river discharge, and aggregated wind based on eight directions. By emphasizing the most impactful predictors, we streamlined the model-building processes and built a hindcast system from 2015 to 2019. We found that the recurrent neural network model was most effective in predicting the dissolved oxygen concentrations, with an R2 value of 0.99 at multiple stations. Different from our machine learning hindcast models that used observed upcoming meteorological and discharge data, an actual forecast system would use forecasted meteorological and discharge data. Therefore, an actual operational forecast may have lower accuracy than the hindcast, as determined by the accuracy of the predicted meteorological and discharge data. Nevertheless, our studies enhance our understanding of the factors influencing dissolved oxygen variability and set the basis for the implementation of a predictive tool for environmental monitoring and management. We also emphasized the importance of building station-specific models to improve the prediction results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-altitude illnesses, encompassing a spectrumof health threats including Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS), pose significant challenges to individuals exposed to high altitude environments, necessitating effective prophylaxis and immediate management. Given the variability in individual responses to these conditions, accurate prediction of high-altitude illnesses onset is of paramount importance. This review systematically consolidates recent advancements in research on predicting AMS by evaluating existing cohort data, predictive models, and methodologies, while also delving into the application of emerging technologies. Through a thorough analysis of scholarly literature, we discuss traditional prediction methods anchored in physiological parameters (e.g., heart rate, respiratory frequency, blood pressure) and biochemicalmarkers, aswell as the integration and utility of novel technologies such as biosensors, genetic testing, and artificial intelligence within high-altitude prediction research. While conventional pre-diction techniques have been extensively used, they are often constrained by limitations in accuracy, reliability, andmultifactorial influences. The advent of these innovative technologies holds promise formore precise individual risk assessments and personalized preventive and therapeutic strategies across various forms of AMS. Future research endeavors must pivot decisively towards the meticulous identification and stringent validation of innovative predictive biomarkers and models. This strategic re-direction should catalyze intensified interdisciplinary cooperation to significantly deepen our mechanistic insights into the pathogenesis of AMS while refining existing prediction methodologies. These groundbreaking advancements harbor the potential to fundamentally transform preventive and therapeutic frameworks for high-altitude illnesses, ultimately securing augmented safety standards and wellbeing for individuals operating at elevated altitudes with far-reaching global implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In today's digital landscape, organizations face significant challenges, including sensitive data leaks and the proliferation of hate speech, both of which can lead to severe consequences such as financial losses, reputational damage, and psychological impacts on employees. This work considers a comprehensive solution using a microservices architecture to monitor computer usage within organizations effectively. The approach incorporates spyware techniques to capture data from employee computers and a web application for alert management. The system detects data leaks, suspicious behaviors, and hate speech through efficient data capture and predictive modeling. Therefore, this paper presents a comparative performance analysis between Spring Boot and Quarkus, focusing on objective metrics and quantitative statistics. By utilizing recognized tools and benchmarks in the computer science community, the study provides an in-depth understanding of the performance differences between these two platforms. The implementation of Quarkus over Spring Boot demonstrated substantial improvements: memory usage was reduced by up to 80% and CPU usage by 95%, and system uptime decreased by 119%. This solution offers a robust framework for enhancing organizational security and mitigating potential threats through proactive monitoring and predictive analysis while also guiding developers and software architects in making informed technological choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire models predict fire behavior and effects. However, there is a need to know how confident users can be in forecasts. This work developed a probabilistic methodology based on ensemble simulations that incorporated uncertainty in weather, fuel loading, and model physics parameters. It provided information on the most likely forecast scenario, confidence levels, and potential outliers. It also introduced novel ways to communicate uncertainty in calculation and graphical representation and applied this to diverse wildfires using ensemble simulations of the CAWFE coupled weather–fire model ranging from 12 to 26 members. The ensembles captured many features but spread was narrower than expected, especially with varying weather and fuel inputs, suggesting errors may not be easily mitigated by improving input data. Varying physics parameters created a wider spread, including identifying an outlier, underscoring modeling knowledge gaps. Uncertainty was communicated using burn probability, spread rate, and heat flux, a fire intensity metric related to burn severity. Despite limited ensemble spread, maps of mean and standard deviation exposed event times and locations where fire behavior was more uncertain, requiring more management or observations. Interpretability was enhanced by replacing traditional hot–cold color palettes with ones that accommodate the vision-impaired and adhere to web accessibility standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective was to evaluate the performance of exploratory models containing routinely available on-farm data, behavior data, and the combination of both to predict metritis self-cure (SC) and treatment failure (TF). Holstein cows (n = 1,061) were fitted with a collar-mounted automated-health monitoring device (AHMD) from −21 ± 3 to 60 ± 3 d relative to calving to monitor rumination time and activity. Cows were examined for diagnosis of metritis at 4 ± 1, 7 ± 1, and 9 ± 1 d in milk (DIM). Cows diagnosed with metritis (n = 132), characterized by watery, fetid, reddish/brownish vaginal discharge (VD), were randomly allocated to 1 of 2 treatments: control (CON; n = 62), no treatment at the time of metritis diagnosis (d 0); or ceftiofur (CEF; n = 70), subcutaneous injection of 6.6 mg/kg of ceftiofur crystalline-free acid on d 0 and 3 relative to diagnosis. Cure was determined 12 d after diagnosis and was considered when VD became mucoid and not fetid. Cows in CON were used to determine SC, and cows in CEF were used to determine TF. Univariable analyses were performed using farm-collected data (parity, calving season, calving-related disorders, body condition score, rectal temperature, and DIM at metritis diagnosis) and behavior data (i.e., daily averages of rumination time, activity generated by AHMD, and derived variables) to assess their association with metritis SC or TF. Variables with P -values ≤0.20 were included in the multivariable logistic regression exploratory models. To predict SC, the area under the curve (AUC) for the exploratory model containing only data routinely available on-farm was 0.75. The final exploratory model to predict SC combining routinely available on-farm data and behavior data increased the AUC to 0.87, with sensitivity (Se) of 89% and specificity (Sp) of 77%. To predict TF, the AUC for the exploratory model containing only data routinely available on-farm was 0.90. The final exploratory model combining routinely available on-farm data and behavior data increased the AUC to 0.93, with Se of 93% and Sp of 87%. Cross-validation analysis revealed that generalizability of the exploratory models was poor, which indicates that the findings are applicable to the conditions of the present exploratory study. In summary, the addition of behavior data contributed to increasing the prediction of SC and TF. Developing and validating accurate prediction models for SC could lead to a reduction in antimicrobial use, whereas accurate prediction of cows that would have TF may allow for better management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: A 90-day mortality predictive model for curative gastric cancer resection based on the Spanish EURECCA Esophagogastric Cancer database was externally validated using the GASTRODATA registry. The externally validated model showed a modestly worse performance compared to the original model, nevertheless maintaining its discriminating ability in clinical practice. Background: Radical gastrectomy remains the main treatment for gastric cancer, despite its high mortality. A clinical predictive model of 90-day mortality (90DM) risk after gastric cancer surgery based on the Spanish EURECCA registry database was developed using a matching learning algorithm. We performed an external validation of this model based on data from an international multicenter cohort of patients. Methods: A cohort of patients from the European GASTRODATA database was selected. Demographic, clinical, and treatment variables in the original and validation cohorts were compared. The performance of the model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) for a random forest model. Results: The validation cohort included 2546 patients from 24 European hospitals. The advanced clinical T- and N-category, neoadjuvant therapy, open procedures, total gastrectomy rates, and mean volume of the centers were significantly higher in the validation cohort. The 90DM rate was also higher in the validation cohort (5.6%) vs. the original cohort (3.7%). The AUC in the validation model was 0.716. Conclusion: The externally validated model for predicting the 90DM risk in gastric cancer patients undergoing gastrectomy with curative intent continues to be as useful as the original model in clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Prognosis determines major decisions regarding treatment for critically ill patients. Statistical models have been developed to predict the probability of survival and other outcomes of intensive care. Although they were trained on the characteristics of large patient cohorts, they often do not represent very old patients (age ≥ 80 years) appropriately. Moreover, the heterogeneity within this particular group impairs the utility of statistical predictions for informing decision-making in very old individuals. In addition to these methodological problems, the diversity of cultural attitudes, available resources as well as variations of legal and professional norms limit the generalisability of prediction models, especially in patients with complex multi-morbidity and pre-existing functional impairments. Thus, current approaches to prognosticating outcomes in very old patients are imperfect and can generate substantial uncertainty about optimal trajectories of critical care in the individual. This article presents the state of the art and new approaches to predicting outcomes of intensive care for these patients. Special emphasis has been given to the integration of predictions into the decision-making for individual patients. This requires quantification of prognostic uncertainty and a careful alignment of decisions with the preferences of patients, who might prioritise functional outcomes over survival. Since the performance of outcome predictions for the individual patient may improve over time, time-limited trials in intensive care may be an appropriate way to increase the confidence in decisions about life-sustaining treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The timing of cranioplasty (CP) has become a widely debated topic in research, there is currently no unified standard. To this end, we established a outcome prediction model to explore the factors influencing the outcome of early CP. Our aim is to provide theoretical and practical basis for whether patients with skull defects after decompressive craniectomy (DC) are suitable for early CP. Methods: A total of 90 patients with early CP after DC from January 2020 to December 2021 were retrospectively collected as the training group, and another 52 patients with early CP after DC from January 2022 to March 2023 were collected as the validation group. The Nomogram was established to explore the predictive factors that affect the outcome of early CP by Least absolute shrinkage analysis and selection operator (LASSO) regression and Logistic regression analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the discrimination of the prediction model. Calibration curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of data fitting, and decision curve analysis (DCA) diagram was used to evaluate the benefit of using the model. Results: Age, preoperative GCS, preoperative NIHSS, defect area, and interval time from DC to CP were the predictors of the risk prediction model of early CP in patients with skull defects. The area under ROC curve (AUC) of the training group was 0.924 (95%CI: 0.867-0.980), and the AUC of the validation group was 0.918 (95%CI, 0.842-0.993). Hosmer-Lemeshow fit test showed that the mean absolute error was small, and the fit degree was good. The probability threshold of decision risk curve was wide and had practical value. Conclusion: The prediction model that considers the age, preoperative GCS, preoperative NIHSS, defect area, and interval time from DC has good predictive ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional method for retrieving cloud optical thickness (COT) is carried out through a Look-Up Table (LUT). Researchers must make a series of idealized assumptions and conduct extensive observations and record features in this scenario, consuming considerable resources. The emergence of deep learning effectively addresses the shortcomings of the traditional approach. In this paper, we first propose a daytime (SOZA < 70°) COT retrieval algorithm based on FY-4A AGRI. We establish and train a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model for COT retrieval, CM4CR, with the CALIPSO's COT product spatially and temporally synchronized as the ground truth. Then, a deep learning method extended from video prediction models is adopted to predict COT values based on the retrieval results obtained from CM4CR. The COT prediction model (CPM) consists of an encoder, a predictor, and a decoder. On this basis, we further incorporated a time embedding module to enhance the model's ability to learn from irregular time intervals in the input COT sequence. During the training phase, we employed Charbonnier Loss and Edge Loss to enhance the model's capability to represent COT details. Experiments indicate that our CM4CR outperforms existing COT retrieval methods, with predictions showing better performance across several metrics than other benchmark prediction models. Additionally, this paper also investigates the impact of different lengths of COT input sequences and the time intervals between adjacent frames of COT on prediction performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: We investigated whether the baseline plasma cell-free DNA might help to differentiate malignant nodules from benign lesions observed in screening low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) examinations. Plasma cell-free DNA was determined before the first LDCT in 137 participants in the ITALUNG trial, including 29 with screen-detected malignant nodules (17 prevalent and 12 incident) and 108 with benign nodules. In subjects with prevalent lung cancers (LC), the radiological characteristics well differentiated the malignant nodule, and the cell-free DNA was markedly increased. A total of 75% of subjects with incident LC showed a baseline cell-free DNA ≥ 3.15 ng/mL, compared to 34% of subjects with benign nodules (p = 0.006). Moreover, the cell-free DNA correlated (p = 0.001) with the tumor growth measured with nodular volume doubling time. The baseline plasma cell-free DNA is an independent, potentially useful biomarker in the LC screening process and should be further investigated. The role of total plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) in lung cancer (LC) screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) is uncertain. We hypothesized that cfDNA could support differentiation between malignant and benign nodules observed in LDCT. The baseline cfDNA was measured in 137 subjects of the ITALUNG trial, including 29 subjects with screen-detected LC (17 prevalent and 12 incident) and 108 subjects with benign nodules. The predictive capability of baseline cfDNA to differentiate malignant and benign nodules was compared to that of Lung-RADS classification and Brock score at initial LDCT (iLDCT). Subjects with prevalent LC showed both well-discriminating radiological characteristics of the malignant nodule (16 of 17 were classified as Lung-RADS 4) and markedly increased cfDNA (mean 18.8 ng/mL). The mean diameters and Brock scores of malignant nodules at iLDCT in subjects who were diagnosed with incident LC were not different from those of benign nodules. However, 75% (9/12) of subjects with incident LC showed a baseline cfDNA ≥ 3.15 ng/mL, compared to 34% (37/108) of subjects with benign nodules (p = 0.006). Moreover, baseline cfDNA was correlated (p = 0.001) with tumor growth, measured with volume doubling time. In conclusion, increased baseline cfDNA may help to differentiate subjects with malignant and benign nodules at LDCT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a global society that is increasingly interrelated and focused on mobility, carbon monoxide emissions derived from internal combustion vehicles remain the most important factor that must be addressed to improve environmental quality. Certainly, air pollution generated by internal combustion engines threatens human health and the well-being of the planet. In this regard, this paper aims to address the urgent need to understand and face the CO emissions produced by internal combustion vehicles; therefore, this work proposes a mathematical model based on Auto-Regressive Exogenous that predicts the CO percentages produced by an internal combustion engine during its start-up. The main goal is to establish a strategy for diagnosing excessive CO emissions caused by changes in the engine temperature. The proposed CO emissions modeling is evaluated under a real dataset obtained from experiments, and the obtained results make the proposed method suitable for being implemented as a novel diagnosis tool in automotive maintenance programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric forcings are significant physical factors that influence the variation of sea surface temperature (SST) and are often used as essential input variables for ocean numerical models. However, their contribution to the prediction of SST based on machine-learning methods still needs to be tested. This study presents a prediction model for SST in the East China Sea (ECS) using two machine-learning methods: Random Forest and SA-ConvLSTM algorithms. According to the Random Forest feature importance scores and correlation coefficients R, 2 m air temperature and longwave radiation were selected as the two most important key atmospheric factors that can affect the SST prediction performance of machine-learning methods. Four datasets were constructed as input to SA-ConvLSTM: SST-only, SST-T2m, SST-LWR, and SST-T2m-LWR. Using the SST-T2m and SST-LWR, the prediction skill of the model can be improved by about 9.9% and 9.43% for the RMSE and by about 8.97% and 8.21% for the MAE, respectively. Using the SST-T2m-LWR dataset, the model's prediction skill can be improved by 10.75% for RMSE and 9.06% for MAE. The SA-ConvLSTM can represent the SST in ECS well, but with the highest RMSE and AE in summer. The findings of the presented study requires much more exploration in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article describes a part of the POTENTIALS project promoted by the Research Fund for Coal and Steel (RFCS) of the EU, which, in general, has aimed to develop business models for the reuse of former industrial and mining sites in different European regions. The goal of this project focused on the creation of so-called eco-industrial parks to enable sustainable energy production and reduce waste and pollution on coal sites in transition. A key aspect was the development of a suitable territorial impact assessment (TIA), a new and complex policy tool for the assessment of the territorial impacts of EU policies and projects on territorial cohesion. Therefore, the special TEQUILA (Territorial Efficiency, Quality and Identity Layer Assessment) approach is used to describe the TIA for this case and emphasizes its application in assessing ex ante the impacts of the transition from a coal site to an eco-industrial park. It underlines the need for a differentiated understanding of the regional characteristics and potential impacts of transition policies or projects. Furthermore, the process and results of applying the TEQUILA methodology, a multicriteria analysis, in the context of regionalized impact models has shown how important it is to select well-defined, expert-based criteria, but at the same time, to establish a system that is flexible and adaptable to the needs of political decision makers and stakeholders considering the normative weights of the criteria. This has been illustrated by some examples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tribological properties of self-lubricating composites are influenced by many variables and complex mechanisms. Data-driven methods, including machine learning (ML) algorithms, can yield a better comprehensive understanding of complex problems under the influence of multiple parameters, typically for how tribological performances and material properties correlate. Correlation of friction coefficients and wear rates of copper/aluminum-graphite (Cu/Al-graphite) self-lubricating composites with their inherent material properties (composition, lubricant content, particle size, processing process, and interfacial bonding strength) and the variables related to the testing method (normal load, sliding speed, and sliding distance) were analyzed using traditional approaches, followed by modeling and prediction of tribological properties through five different ML algorithms, namely support vector machine (SVM), K-Nearest neighbor (KNN), random forest (RF), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and least-squares boosting (LSBoost), based on the tribology experimental data. Results demonstrated that ML models could satisfactorily predict friction coefficient and wear rate from the material properties and testing method variables data. Herein, the LSBoost model based on the integrated learning algorithm presented the best prediction performance for friction coefficients and wear rates, with R2 of 0.9219 and 0.9243, respectively. Feature importance analysis also revealed that the content of graphite and the hardness of the matrix have the greatest influence on the friction coefficients, and the normal load, the content of graphite, and the hardness of the matrix influence the wear rates the most. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To analyze the equity of bed allocation of the department of stomatology in Chinese hospitals and predict the development in the next 5 years, so as to provide a scientific basis for promoting the development of oral health. Methods: Data on the beds of the department of stomatology in Chinese hospitals from 2017 to 2021 were obtained from the China Health Statistical Yearbook. The Gini coefficient, Lorenz curve, Theil index and agglomeration degree were used to analyze the equity of the bed allocation, and the grey prediction model GM(1,1) was used to predict the development from 2022 to 2026. Results: From 2017 to 2020, the Gini coefficient of bed allocation of the department of stomatology in Chinese hospitals was below 0.2 by population. From 2017 to 2021, the Gini coefficient of beds was above 0.6 by geography and between 0.2 and 0.3 by economy. The Theil index of beds ranged from 0.022 to 0.056 by population, from 0.532 to 0.564 by geography, and from 0.042 to 0.047 by economy. The inequity in the allocation by population was mainly from between regions, and the inequity in the allocation by geography and economy was mainly from within regions. Health resource agglomeration degree (HRAD) was greater than 2 in the eastern and central regions and less than 1 in the western region. HRAD/ population agglomeration degree (PAD) was greater than 1 in the northeast, eastern, and central regions and less than 1 in the western region. According to the prediction, the number of beds of the department of stomatology in Chinese hospitals will continue to increase, reaching 47,862.485 in 2026. Conclusion: The equity of bed allocation was better by population and economy than by geography. The equity of beds in the western region is insufficient equity by population and geography, and the equity of beds in the eastern region is insufficient equity by economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neurocognitive disorders (NCDs) are progressive conditions that severely impact cognitive function and daily living. Understanding the transition from mild to major NCD is crucial for personalized early intervention and effective management. Predictive models incorporating demographic variables, clinical data, and scores on neuropsychological and emotional tests can significantly enhance early detection and intervention strategies in primary healthcare settings. We aimed to develop and validate predictive models for the progression from mild NCD to major NCD using demographic, clinical, and neuropsychological data from 132 participants over a two-year period. Generalized Estimating Equations were employed for data analysis. Our final model achieved an accuracy of 83.7%. A higher body mass index and alcohol drinking increased the risk of progression from mild NCD to major NCD, while female sex, higher praxis abilities, and a higher score on the Geriatric Depression Scale reduced the risk. Here, we show that integrating multiple factors—ones that can be easily examined in clinical settings—into predictive models can improve early diagnosis of major NCD. This approach could facilitate timely interventions, potentially mitigating the progression of cognitive decline and improving patient outcomes in primary healthcare settings. Further research should focus on validating these models across diverse populations and exploring their implementation in various clinical contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of aspartate aminotransferase(AST)/ alanine transaminase (ALT), AST to platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to platelet count ratio (GPR) for hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Methods: A total of 1210 CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy were divided into two groups: patients with no significant fibrosis (control group) and patients with significant fibrosis, and routine laboratory tests were retrospectively included. Logistic regression models were used for the prediction, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) was used to assess the diagnostic accuracy. Results: A total of 631 (52.1%) and 275 (22.7%) patients had significant fibrosis (≥ S2) and advanced fibrosis (≥ S3), respectively. The GPR showed significantly higher diagnostic accuracy than that of APRI, FiB-4, and AST/ALT to predict ≥ S2(significant fibrosis) and ≥ S3 fibrosis(advanced fibrosis), with an AUROC was 0.69 (95%CI: 0.66–0.71) and 0.72 (0.69–0.75), respectively. After stratified by the status of HBeAg (positive or negative), GPR, APRI, and FiB-4 showed improved predicting performance for significant fibrosis and advanced fibrosis in HBeAg positive patients, with the most significant improvement was shown for GPR in predicting significant fibrosis (AUROC = 0.74, 95%CI: 0.70–0.78). Conclusions: Among the four noninvasive models, GPR has the best performance in the diagnosis of hepatic fibrosis in CHB patients and is more valuable in HBeAg-positive patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. This presentation however is not universally high risk as only 20–30% of bleeds require urgent haemostatic therapy. Nevertheless, the current standard of care is for all patients admitted to an inpatient bed to undergo endoscopy within 24 h for risk stratification which is invasive, costly and difficult to achieve in routine clinical practice. Objectives: To develop novel non-endoscopic machine learning models for AUGIB to predict the need for haemostatic therapy by endoscopic, radiological or surgical intervention. Design: A retrospective cohort study Method: We analysed data from patients admitted with AUGIB to hospitals from 2015 to 2020 (n = 970). Machine learning models were internally validated to predict the need for haemostatic therapy. The performance of the models was compared to the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) using the area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. Results: The random forest classifier [AUROC 0.84 (0.80–0.87)] had the best performance and was superior to the GBS [AUROC 0.75 (0.72–0.78), p < 0.001] in predicting the need for haemostatic therapy in patients with AUGIB. A GBS cut-off of ⩾12 was associated with an accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.74, 0.49, 0.81, 0.41 and 0.85, respectively. The Random Forrest model performed better with an accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 0.82, 0.54, 0.90, 0.60 and 0.88, respectively. Conclusion: We developed and validated a machine learning algorithm with high accuracy and specificity in predicting the need for haemostatic therapy in AUGIB. This could be used to risk stratify high-risk patients to urgent endoscopy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the global challenge of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, accurate prediction of daily new cases is crucial for epidemic prevention and socioeconomic planning. In contrast to traditional local, one-dimensional time-series data-based infection models, the study introduces an innovative approach by formulating the shortterm prediction problem of new cases in a region as multidimensional, gridded time series for both input and prediction targets. A spatial-temporal depth prediction model for COVID-19 (ConvLSTM) is presented, and further ConvLSTM by integrating historical meteorological factors (Meteor-ConvLSTM) is refined, considering the influence of meteorological factors on the propagation of COVID-19. The correlation between 10 meteorological factors and the dynamic progression of COVID-19 was evaluated, employing spatial analysis techniques (spatial autocorrelation analysis, trend surface analysis, etc.) to describe the spatial and temporal characteristics of the epidemic. Leveraging the original ConvLSTM, an artificial neural network layer is introduced to learn how meteorological factors impact the infection spread, providing a 5-day forecast at a 0.01° × 0.01° pixel resolution. Simulation results using real dataset from the 3.15 outbreak in Shanghai demonstrate the efficacy of Meteor-ConvLSTM, with reduced RMSE of 0.110 and increased R2 of 0.125 (original ConvLSTM: RMSE = 0.702, R2 = 0.567; Meteor-ConvLSTM: RMSE = 0.592, R2 = 0.692), showcasing its utility for investigating the epidemiological characteristics, transmission dynamics, and epidemic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This systematic review and meta‐analysis aimed to evaluate the performance of existing externally validated prediction models for pre‐eclampsia (PE) (specifically, any‐onset, early‐onset, late‐onset and preterm PE). Methods: A systematic search was conducted in five databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Emcare, CINAHL and Maternity & Infant Care Database) and using Google Scholar/reference search to identify studies based on the Population, Index prediction model, Comparator, Outcome, Timing and Setting (PICOTS) approach until 20 May 2023. We extracted data using the CHARMS checklist and appraised the risk of bias using the PROBAST tool. A meta‐analysis of discrimination and calibration performance was conducted when appropriate. Results: Twenty‐three studies reported 52 externally validated prediction models for PE (one preterm, 20 any‐onset, 17 early‐onset and 14 late‐onset PE models). No model had the same set of predictors. Fifteen any‐onset PE models were validated externally once, two were validated twice and three were validated three times, while the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) competing‐risks model for preterm PE prediction was validated widely in 16 different settings. The most common predictors were maternal characteristics (prepregnancy body mass index, prior PE, family history of PE, chronic medical conditions and ethnicity) and biomarkers (uterine artery pulsatility index and pregnancy‐associated plasma protein‐A). The FMF model for preterm PE (triple test plus maternal factors) had the best performance, with a pooled area under the receiver‐operating‐characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.90 (95% prediction interval (PI), 0.76–0.96), and was well calibrated. The other models generally had poor‐to‐good discrimination performance (median AUC, 0.66 (range, 0.53–0.77)) and were overfitted on external validation. Apart from the FMF model, only two models that were validated multiple times for any‐onset PE prediction, which were based on maternal characteristics only, produced reasonable pooled AUCs of 0.71 (95% PI, 0.66–0.76) and 0.73 (95% PI, 0.55–0.86). Conclusions: Existing externally validated prediction models for any‐, early‐ and late‐onset PE have limited discrimination and calibration performance, and include inconsistent input variables. The triple‐test FMF model had outstanding discrimination performance in predicting preterm PE in numerous settings, but the inclusion of specialized biomarkers may limit feasibility and implementation outside of high‐resource settings. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To predict the dental caries outcomes in young adults from a set of longitudinally-obtained predictor variables and identify the most important predictors using machine learning techniques. Methods: This study was conducted using the Iowa Fluoride Study dataset. The predictor variables - sex, mother's education, family income, composite socio-economic status (SES), caries experience at ages 9, 13, and 17, and the cumulative estimates of risk and protective factors, including fluoride, dietary, and behavioral variables from ages 5–9, 9–13, 13–17, and 17–23 were used to predict the age 23 D2+MFS count. The following machine learning models (LASSO regression, generalized boosting machines (GBM), negative binomial (NegGLM), and extreme gradient boosting models (XGBOOST)) were compared under 5-fold cross validation with nested resampling techniques. Results: The prevalence of cavitated level caries experience at age 23 (mean D2+MFS count) was 4.75. The predictive analysis found LASSO to be the best performing model (compared to GBM, NegGLM, and XGBOOST), with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.70, and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.44. After dichotomization of the predicted and observed values of the LASSO regression, the classification results showed accuracy, precision, recall, and ROC AUC of 83.7%, 85.9%, 93.1%, 68.2%, respectively. Previous caries experience at age 13 and age 17 and sugar-sweetened beverages intakes at age 13 and age 17 were found to be the four most important predictors of cavitated caries count at age 23. Conclusion: Our machine learning model showed high accuracy and precision in the prediction of caries in young adults from a longitudinally-obtained predictor variables. Our model could, in the future, after further development and validation with other diverse population data, be used by public health specialists and policy-makers as a screening tool to identify the risk of caries in young adults and apply more targeted interventions. However, data from a more diverse population are needed to improve the quality and generalizability of caries prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, a machine learning‐assisted prediction model is proposed to analyze the reliability issues in the 28 nm resistive random access memory (RRAM) chip with raw data measured from RRAM test chip. The neural network of long‐short time memory (LSTM) is trained by the voltages and resistance during the endurance test (input vectors) and generates the output of the dichotomy states with a satisfied testing result >83.08%. According to the prediction results, the "real fail" state or "fake fail" state of the devices can get in the future. By collaborating with a well‐designed resurrection algorithm (RA), the percentage of real and fake failed cells dropped by 35% and 29%, respectively. Besides, the tail bits in retention significantly reduced from 33% to 14.6% due to the reduction of oxygen vacancies in the gaps of conducting filaments by applying ten consecutive cycles of RA. This intelligent prediction and repair module can prolong the lifetime of RRAM chips effectively in practical applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Diabetic nephropathy (DN), a major complication of diabetes mellitus, significantly impacts global health. Identifying individuals at risk of developing DN is crucial for early intervention and improving patient outcomes. This study aims to develop and validate a machine learning-based predictive model using integrated biomarkers. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis was conducted on a baseline dataset involving 2184 participants without DN, categorized based on their development of DN over a follow-up period of 36 months: DN (n=1270) and Non-DN (n=914). Various demographic and clinical parameters were analyzed. The findings were validated using an independent dataset comprising 468 participants, with 273 developing DN and 195 remaining as Non-DN over the follow-up period. Machine learning algorithms, alongside traditional descriptive statistics and logistic regression were used for statistical analyses. Results: Elevated levels of serum creatinine, urea, and reduced eGFR, alongside an increased prevalence of retinopathy and peripheral neuropathy, were prominently observed in those who developed DN. Validation on the independent dataset further confirmed the model's robustness and consistency. The SVM model demonstrated superior performance in the training set (AUC=0.79, F1-score=0.74) and testing set (AUC=0.83, F1-score=0.82), outperforming other models. Significant predictors of DN included serum creatinine, eGFR, presence of diabetic retinopathy, and peripheral neuropathy. Conclusion: Integrating machine learning algorithms with clinical and biomarker data at baseline offers a promising avenue for identifying individuals at risk of developing diabetic nephropathy in type 2 diabetes patients over a 36-month period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate risk prediction for myocardial infarction (MI) is crucial for preventive strategies, given its significant impact on global mortality and morbidity. Here, we propose a novel deep-learning approach to enhance the prediction of incident MI cases by incorporating metabolomics alongside clinical risk factors. We utilized data from the KORA cohort, including the baseline S4 and follow-up F4 studies, consisting of 1454 participants without prior history of MI. The dataset comprised 19 clinical variables and 363 metabolites. Due to the imbalanced nature of the dataset (78 observed MI cases and 1376 non-MI individuals), we employed a generative adversarial network (GAN) model to generate new incident cases, augmenting the dataset and improving feature representation. To predict MI, we further utilized multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models in conjunction with the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) and edited nearest neighbor (ENN) methods to address overfitting and underfitting issues, particularly when dealing with imbalanced datasets. To enhance prediction accuracy, we propose a novel GAN for feature-enhanced (GFE) loss function. The GFE loss function resulted in an approximate 2% improvement in prediction accuracy, yielding a final accuracy of 70%. Furthermore, we evaluated the contribution of each clinical variable and metabolite to the predictive model and identified the 10 most significant variables, including glucose tolerance, sex, and physical activity. This is the first study to construct a deep-learning approach for producing 7-year MI predictions using the newly proposed loss function. Our findings demonstrate the promising potential of our technique in identifying novel biomarkers for MI prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In modern wireless communication systems, the scarcity of spectrum resources poses challenges to the performance and efficiency of the system. Spectrum prediction technology can help systems better plan and schedule resources to respond to the dynamic changes in spectrum. Dynamic change in the spectrum refers to the changes in the radio spectrum in a wireless communication system. It means that the available spectrum resources may change at different times and locations. In response to this current situation, this study first constructs a communication collaborative spectrum sensing model using channel aliasing dense connection networks. Then, combining convolutional neural network and gated cyclic unit network in deep learning technology, a communication spectrum prediction model is built. It aims to achieve accurate perception and prediction of spectrum resources through the aforementioned spectrum sensing and prediction models. The results confirm that the proposed perception model has inconsistent perception accuracy under different number of secondary users, with a maximum of 0.99. It is verified that the proposed spectrum prediction model achieves a high prediction accuracy of 0.95 within 208 s and its performance outperforms current similar models. The results are based on the model's deep learning analysis of massive historical communication data, in which the optimized shuffle dense net model plus convolutional gated recurrent unit model is the key to achieve fast and accurate prediction. On the contrary, the highest spectrum prediction accuracy of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Convolutional Neural Networks-Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) models are 0.86, 0.90, and 0.85, respectively. And the model needs to run for a longer period of time, up to 324, for ConvLSTM to reach the prediction accuracy value of 0.95. In summary, the perception and prediction model built by this research has good performance, and its application in the field of wireless communication can assist staff in better monitoring spectral changes, thereby making more efficient use of spectral resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background/Aims: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is widely performed as a major treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, and there is a need to stratify patients for whom the most benefit from the treatment. This study aimed to develop a refined prediction model for overall survival (OS) in patients undergoing TACE as a first-line treatment in a large cohort and validate its performance. Methods: A total of 2,632 patients with HCC of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage A or B who underwent TACE between 2008 and 2017 were enrolled. The patients were randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 1,304) or a validation cohort (n = 1,328). Independent predictors of OS were used to develop a prediction model. Results: The median age of patients in the entire cohort was 63 years, with the majority having hepatitis B virus (56.6%) and being classified as Child-Pugh class A (82.4%). We developed a new prognostic model, called the TACE-prognostic (TP) score, based on tumor burden (sum of the largest tumor diameter and tumor number), alpha-fetoprotein, and Albumin-Bilirubin grade. Patients were classified into five risk groups according to TP scores, with median survival significantly differentiated in both training and validation cohorts (P < 0.001). The new model consistently outperformed other currently available models in both the training and validation cohorts. Conclusion: This newly developed TP scoring system has the potential to be a useful tool in identifying ideal candidates of TACE and predicting OS with favorable performance and discrimination. However, further external validation is needed to confirm its effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cleaning loss rate is a crucial performance metric for rice-wheat combine harvesters. Most studies on the relationship between the cleaning operation parameters of the combined harvester and the cleaning loss rate lack research on the dynamic correlation between harvest losses and operational parameters, specifically focusing on the dynamic correlation between harvest losses and multiple operational parameters such as the cleaning loss rate. In this paper, we formulate a dynamic deductive model for the scenario of harvesting loss regulation involving multiple operational parameters, delving into the dynamic associations between cleaning loss and the regulation of multiple operational parameters and constructing dynamic Bayesian network prediction model. Through experimental analysis of the dynamic Bayesian network prediction model for cleaning loss rates, the comparison of results among the other three algorithms demonstrated that it was efficient for our DBN to predict the cleaning loss rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning (ML) has become increasingly popular in the prediction of debris flow occurrence, but the various ML models utilized as baseline predictors reported in previous studies are typically limited to individual case bases. A comprehensive and systematic evaluation of existing empirical evidence on the utilization of ML as baseline predictors for debris flow occurrence is lacking. To address this gap, we conducted a meta-analysis of ML-based prediction modeling of debris flow occurrence by retrieving papers that were published between 2000 and 2023 from the Scopus and Web of Science databases. The general findings were as follows: (1) A total of 84 papers, distributed across 37 different journals in this time period, reflecting an overall upward trend. (2) Debris flow disasters occur throughout the world, and a total of 13 countries carried out research on the prediction of debris flow occurrence based on ML; China made significant contributions, but more research efforts in African countries should be considered. (3) A total of 36 categories of ML models were utilized as baseline predictors for debris flow occurrence, with logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) emerging as the most popular choices. (4) Feature engineering and model comparison were the most commonly utilized strategies in predicting debris flow occurrence based on ML (53 and 46 papers, respectively). (5) Interpretation methods were rarely utilized in predicting debris flow occurrence based on ML, with only 16 papers reporting their utilization. (6) In the prediction of debris flow occurrence based on ML, interpretation methods were rarely utilized, searching by data materials was the most important sample data source, the topographic factors were the most commonly utilized category of candidate variables, and the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was the most frequently reported evaluation metric. (7) LR's prediction performance for debris flow occurrence was inferior to that of RF, BPNN, and SVM; SVM was comparable to RF, and all superior to BPNN. (8) The application process for the prediction of debris flow occurrence based on ML consisted of three main steps: data preparation, model construction and evaluation, and prediction outcomes. The research gaps in predicting debris flow occurrence based on ML include utilizing new ML techniques and enhancing the interpretability of ML. Consequently, this study contributes both to academic ML research and to practical applications in the prediction of debris flow occurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDPs) represent a significant source of severe maternal and fetal morbidity. Screening strategies relying on traditional medical history and clinical risk factors have traditionally shown relatively modest performance, mainly in the prediction of preeclampsia, displaying a sensitivity of 37% for the early-onset form and 29% for the late-onset form. The development of more accurate predictive and diagnostic models of preeclampsia in the early stages of pregnancy represents a matter of high priority. The aim of the present paper is to create an effective second trimester prediction algorithm of early-onset HDP occurrence and severity, by combining the following two biochemical markers: a soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1)/placental growth factor (PlGF) ratio and uterine artery Doppler ultrasound parameters, namely the pulsatility index (PI) and the resistivity index (RI), in a population of high-risk pregnant women, initially assessed through traditional risk factors. A prospective single-center observational longitudinal study was conducted, in which 100 women with singleton pregnancy and traditional clinical and medical history risk factors for preeclampsia were enrolled at 24 weeks of gestation. Shortly after study enrollment, all women had their sFlt-1 and PlGF levels and mean uterine artery PI and RI determined. All pregnancies were followed up until delivery. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis established algorithms based on cutoffs for the prediction of the later development of preeclampsia: PI 1.25 (96.15% sensitivity, 86.49% specificity), RI 0.62 (84.6% sensitivity, 89.2% specificity) and sFlt-1/PlGF ratio 59.55 (100% sensitivity, 89.2% specificity). The sFlt-1/PlGF ratio was the best predictor for preeclampsia, as it displayed the highest area under the curve (AUC) of 0.973. The prediction algorithm for the severe form of preeclampsia, complicated by fetal growth restriction leading to preterm birth, antepartum fetal demise or acute fetal distress with a cerebro-placental ratio of

Background: The International Medical Prevention Registry for Venous Thromboembolism (IMPROVE) Bleeding Risk Score is the recommended risk assessment model (RAM) for predicting bleeding risk in acutely ill medical inpatients in Western countries. However, few studies have assessed its predictive performance in local Asian settings. Methods: We retrospectively identified acutely ill adolescents and adults (aged ≥ 15 years) who were admitted to our general internal medicine department between July 5, 2016 and July 5, 2021, and extracted data from their electronic medical records. The outcome of interest was the cumulative incidence of major and nonmajor but clinically relevant bleeding 14 days after admission. For the two-risk-group model, we estimated sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively). For the 11-risk-group model, we estimated C statistic, expected and observed event ratio (E/O), calibration-in-the-large (CITL), and calibration slope. In addition, we recalibrated the intercept using local data to update the RAM. Results: Among the 3,876 included patients, 998 (26%) were aged ≥ 85 years, while 656 (17%) were hospitalized in the intensive care unit. The median length of hospital stay was 14 days. Clinically relevant bleeding occurred in 58 patients (1.5%), 49 (1.3%) of whom experienced major bleeding. Sensitivity, specificity, NPV, and PPV were 26.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.8–40.0%), 84.8% (83.6–85.9%), 98.7% (98.2–99.0%), and 2.5% (1.5–4.3%) for any bleeding and 30.9% (95% CI: 18.8–46.3%), 84.9% (83.7–86.0%), 99.0% (98.5–99.3%), and 2.5% (1.5–4.3%) for major bleeding, respectively. The C statistic, E/O, CITL, and calibration slope were 0.64 (95% CI: 0.58–0.71), 1.69 (1.45–2.05), − 0.55 (− 0.81 to − 0.29), and 0.58 (0.29–0.87) for any bleeding and 0.67 (95% CI: 0.60–0.74), 0.76 (0.61–0.87), 0.29 (0.00–0.58), and 0.42 (0.19–0.64) for major bleeding, respectively. Updating the model substantially corrected the poor calibration observed. Conclusions: In our Japanese cohort, the IMPROVE bleeding RAM retained the reported moderate discriminative performance. Model recalibration substantially improved the poor calibration obtained using the original RAM. Before its introduction into clinical practice, the updated RAM needs further validation studies and an optimized threshold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]