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Due to the empirical nature of the discipline, psychology students, during the course of their degree, are required to become proficient with a range of quantitative methods. Unfortunately many of these students experience high levels of maths anxiety, which can have a damaging effect on this aspect of their educational development. The first study in this paper used focus groups to identify, from psychology undergraduate and postgraduate students, potential interventions that could be used to reduce anxiety in an undergraduate sample. The second study implemented those interventions that were deemed valid and practical on a sample of 246 psychology first and second year undergraduates. The effectiveness of these interventions was mixed, but does suggest further avenues that tertiary educational institutions could take to reduce maths anxiety in their student body, in particular enhancing the use of real-life examples in quantitative methods teaching.

This paper gives a short overview of the UK government's STEM agenda and then considers one aspect in depth--the STEM Advisory Forum. It explains how the Forum operates to draw together views from across the STEM community through online discussions and face-to-face events. Four examples are given of topics that have been dealt with by the Forum. Firstly the topic of engineering, enrichment and engagement is covered through samples of various events and discussions. A major issue covered is the number of young people taking A Level mathematics. The background to the issue is explained and how views expressed on the Forum might have had some influence upon the Government's advanced level target and may yet impact on admissions behaviour in universities. A third short example of impact on the number of university places for STEM subjects is given and the piece finishes with an example of impact at local level in schools. (Contains 4 figures.)

The success of policies to attract adults back to the learning of mathematics, at various levels, is often linked to questions of motivation. However, motivations depend on relevant beliefs, attitudes and emotions about mathematics--which themselves reflect, together with experiences with maths in school and in the home, wider cultural discourses on mathematics. The work presented here is part of a larger study examining the complex relations between popular cultural products such as advertisements and films, the way that knowledge is portrayed by them, and possible consequences for people's affective responses. The initial phase of the project (Evans, 2003, 2004) analysed small "opportunistic" samples of advertisements and films. The advertisements portrayed mathematics as generally negative, whereas the films were more ambivalent. In the next phase, we produced larger samples of both advertisements and films. In this paper, we report on our search through a systematic sample of issues of UK daily newspapers for "mathematical" advertisements. A notable finding was the very small number of advertisements containing images of mathematics. Those few advertisements we found were most frequently for cars, or for services to businesses. Using a discourse theoretical perspective and a hybrid methodology, we categorise advertisements according to features such as their "appeal" to potential consumers--and we also produce semiotic readings of a sub-sample of advertisements, as to their "message", in particular their images of mathematics, and of people doing, using, or teaching mathematics. Here we find these images to be much more varied and subtle than in the initial phase. We end by discussing some of the consequences of our analysis for perceptions, teaching and use of mathematics in today's market economy societies.

This paper presents a study in a UK university that investigated how first-year (freshman) Information Systems undergraduates perceive learning through courseware containing real-world erroneous examples derived from their peers and what obstacles had to be overcome to implement effective e-Learning support for using and creating such courseware. The study finds that students find the courseware very effective in dealing with their personal misconceptions while also providing other secondary pedagogic benefits for both students and lecturers.

The paper investigates semiotics as an integrative, foundational framework for operational research (OR). To this end, the semiotics of the pragmatist C.S. Peirce is explained and its application in OR research, and consulting practice is explored. It is the fourth in a series of papers each seeking to ground OR in a different logic: philosophic/mathematical logic, pragmatic logic, economic logic and now semiotic logic. For Peirce, semiotics is a logic, and as such it is argued in the paper that it can embrace philosophical/mathematical, pragmatic and economic logics. The comprehensive nature of semiotics is such that it brings to a close the research programme aimed at establishing foundations for OR. However, the closure of one programme opens up another—the application of semiotics in OR practice and academic research. Possible avenues for further research include learning from, and collaboration with, neighbouring disciplines such as information systems and computer science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the publication of the higher education white paper increasing entry tariff and widening participation have become even more important issues for universities. This report examines the relationship between entry tariff and undergraduate achievement in Biosciences at the University of Exeter. We show that, whilst there is a significant correlation between A-level tariff and both level 1 and final degree marks, the magnitude of the correlation decreases with increasing A-level tariff. It was also found that, contrary to anecdotal evidence, there is no link between A-level maths or chemistry and degree success in biosciences. However gender was found to have a marked effect on degree success independent of A-level tariff. Female students consistently obtained marks more than one third of a degree classification higher than male students with equivalent entry qualifications. These results are compared to investigations in other disciplines, notably medicine, and in the context of the drive to increase entry tariff to allow unrestricted recruitment of the top students. (Contains 2 figures, 1 footnote, and 6 tables.)

Background: Centile curves and standard scores are common in epidemiological research. However, standardised norms and centile growth curves for language disorder that reflect the entire UK local school population do not exist. Methods: Scores on six language indices assessing receptive and expressive functioning of children were obtained from the SCALES population survey. Monolingual English speaking participants were aged between five and nine years. Children who attended special schools at study intake, or who were learning English as an additional language were excluded. We constructed language norms using the LMS method of standardisation which allows for skewed measurements. We made use of probability weights that were produced from a two-step logistic model. Distributions of estimated standard scores from an intensively assessed sub-population and from the full population were contrasted to demonstrate the role of weights. Results: Non-overlapping centile curves and standardised scores at each age were obtained for the six language indices. The use of weights was essential at retrieving the target distribution of the scores. An online calculator that estimates standardised scores for the measures was constructed and made freely available. Conclusions: The findings highlight the usefulness and flexibility of the LMS method at dealing with the standardisation of linguistic and educational measures that are sufficiently continuous. The paper adds to the existing literature by providing population norms for a number of language tests that were calculated from the same group of individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Charles Babbage (1791–1871) was the embodiment of a polymath: elected a Royal Society fellow, holder of the Lucasian Chair of mathematics at Cambridge, founder of the London Statistical Society, author of many papers and full-length monographs and, most famously from a 21st century perspective, the architect of modern computing with his difference engines and designs for the analytical engine. The scale and complexity of these machines meant their realisation was dependent upon the latest industrial advances like parts standardization and machine tool technology. As a result Babbage committed large amounts of his time and money to the theoretical and empirical study of advanced production and engineering practice. This paper argues that Charles Babbage deserves to be recognised as a pioneer in the field of operations management. His path-breaking contributions were born of a singular intellect and degree of creativity combined with a commitment to empiricist scientific method and statistical measurement. Moreover, he was working as Britain transformed itself into the most highly industrialized country the world had ever seen. The paper draws in particular upon the various editions of his best-selling book, ‘On the Economy of Machines and Manufactures’, first published in 1832. It reviews the many core operations principles evident in Babbage''s analyses and highlights insights that remain relevant to today''s theoretical and practical concerns. The paper concludes with a discussion of how a combination of contextual and biographical factors left Charles Babbage a largely unsung pioneer in the field of operations management. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper focuses on the aspirations of 13- and 15-year-olds to continue with mathematics after the age of 16 and the association with perceptions of their mathematics education during the academic year 2008/9. A quantitative analysis was undertaken on the views of 12,176 UK students, obtained through surveys, with qualitative case studies on two of these students lending support to the quantitative findings. This paper also places a focus on a sub-set of 1,476 London students. The analysis indicates that girls and boys with high mathematics aspirations had similar responses towards their mathematics teachers and lessons, and had comparable extrinsic mathematics motivation. However, girls, regardless of mathematics aspirations, were less likely than boys to be encouraged by their families and others within their social circles to study mathematics post-16. Many of the London findings are similar to those we found across the UK, although girls within London schools with high mathematics aspirations perceived their mathematics education to be more equitable. Low aspiring girls across the UK and in London still reported less support and encouragement, and described their mathematics education less favourably than did boys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) is commonly regarded as the key pillar of the European climate policy and as the main unifying tool to create a unique carbon price all over Europe. The UK has always played a crucial role in the EU ETS, being one of the most active national registry and a crucial hub for the exchange of allowances in the market. Brexit, therefore, could deeply modify the number and directions of such exchanges as well as the centrality of the other countries in this system. To investigate these issues, the present paper exploits network analysis tools to compare the structure of the EU ETS market in its first two phases with and without the UK, investigating a few different scenarios that might emerge from a possible reallocation of the transactions that have involved UK partners. We find that without the UK the EU ETS network would become in general much more homogeneous, though results may change focusing on the type of accounts involved in the transactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The choice of mobile applications (apps) for learning has been heavily relied on customer and teacher reviews, designers' descriptions, and alignment with existing learning and human-computer interaction theories. There is limited empirical evidence to advise on the educational value of mobile apps as these are used by children. Understanding the impact of mobile apps on young children's learning is timely given the lack of evidence-based recommendations that could guide parents and teachers in selecting apps for their children. In this paper, we present the results of a series of Randomised Control Trials (RCTs) with 376 children aged 5 to 6 years old who interacted with two maths apps in three schools in the UK. Pre/post-test comparisons revealed learning gains in both the control and intervention groups, suggesting that the selected applications are equally good to standard maths practice. Implications for the selection and use of mobile apps are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we explore a relational understanding of landscape qualities. We asked three independent groups of human observers to assess the expressive qualities of a range of landscapes in the UK and in Spain, either by means of personal visits or from a projected digital image. We employed a Free Choice Profiling (FCP) methodology, in which observers generated their own descriptive terminologies and then used these to quantify perceived landscape qualities on visual analogue scales. Data were analysed using Generalised Procrustes Analysis, a multivariate statistical technique that does not rely on fixed variables to identify underlying dimensions of assessment. The three observer groups each showed significant agreement, and generated two main consensus dimensions that suggested landscape ‘health’ and ‘development in time’ as common perceived themes of landscape expressivity. We critically discuss these outcomes in context of the landscape assessment literature, and suggest ways forward for further development and research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past research has shown that growth mindset and motivational beliefs have an important role in math and science career interest in adolescence. Drawing on situated expectancy-value theory (SEVT), this study extends these findings by investigating the role of parental motivational beliefs (e.g., expectancy beliefs, utility values) and parent growth mindset in math on adolescent career interest in math-intensive fields (e.g., mathematics, computer science, statistics, and engineering; MCSE) through adolescent motivational beliefs in math. Structural equation modeling was used to test the hypothesized model using data from 290 adolescents (201 girls, 69.3%; Mage = 15.20), who participate in informal STEM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) youth programs, and their parents (162 parents, 87.7% female) in the United Kingdom and the United States. As hypothesized, adolescent expectancy beliefs, utility values, and growth mindset in math had a significant direct effect on MCSE career interest. Further, there was a significant indirect effect of parental expectancy beliefs in math on MCSE career interest through adolescents' expectancy beliefs. Similarly, there was a significant indirect effect from parental utility values in math to MCSE career interest through adolescents' utility values. The findings suggest that parents' math motivational beliefs play a critical role in adolescent math motivational beliefs and their career interest in math-intensive fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Iberica is the property of Asociacion Europea de Lenguas para Fines Especificos and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Genome sequencing is available as a clinical test in the UK through the Genomic Medicine Service (GMS). The GMS analytical strategy predominantly filters genome data on preselected gene panels. Whilst this reduces variants requiring assessment by reporting laboratories, pathogenic variants outside applied panels may be missed, and variants in genes without established disease–gene relationships are largely ignored. This study compares the analysis of a research exome to a GMS clinical genome for the same patients. For the research exome, we applied a panel-agnostic approach filtering for variants with High Pathogenic Potential (HiPPo) using ClinVar, allele frequency, and in silico prediction tools. We then restricted HiPPo variants to Gene Curation Coalition (GenCC) disease genes. These results were compared with the GMS genome panel-based approach. Twenty-four participants from eight families underwent parallel research exome and GMS genome sequencing. Exome HiPPo analysis identified a similar number of variants as the GMS panel-based approach. GMS genome analysis returned two pathogenic variants and one de novo variant. Exome HiPPo analysis returned the same variants plus an additional pathogenic variant and three further de novo variants in novel genes, where case series are underway. When HiPPo was restricted to GenCC disease genes, statistically fewer variants required assessment to identify more pathogenic variants than reported by the GMS, giving a diagnostic rate per variant assessed of 20% for HiPPo versus 3% for the GMS. With UK plans to sequence 5 million genomes, strategies are needed to optimise genome analysis beyond gene panels whilst minimising the burden of variants requiring clinical assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the incidence of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has declined to 1 since 2012 in the UK, uncertainty remains regarding possible future cases and the size of the subclinical population that may cause secondary transmission of the disease through blood transfusion. Estimating the number of individuals who were exposed to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) infectious agent and may be susceptible to vCJD will help to clarify related public health concerns and plan strategies. In this paper, we explore this estimate by describing the probability of potential exposure due to dietary intake throughout the BSE epidemic period from 1980 to 1996 as a stochastic Poisson process. We estimate the age- and gender-specific exposure intensities in food categories of beef and beef-containing dishes, burgers and kebabs, pies, and sausages, separating the two periods of 1980–1989 and 1990–1996 due to the specified bovine offal legislation of 1989. The estimated total number of (living) exposed individuals during each period is 5,089,027 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4,514,963–6,410,317), which was obtained by multiplying the population size of different birth cohorts by the probability of exposure via dietary intake and the probability of survival until the end of 2013. The estimated number is approximately doubled, assuming a contamination rate of . Among those individuals estimated, 31,855 (95% CI 26,849–42,541) are susceptible to infection. We also examined the threshold hypothesis by fitting an extreme-value distribution to the estimated infectious dose of the exposed individuals and obtained a threshold estimate of 13.7 bID50 (95% CI 6.6–26.2 bID50) (Weibull). The results provide useful information on potential carriers of prion disease who may pose a threat of infection via blood transfusion and thus provide insight into the likelihood of new incidents of vCJD occurring in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a critical discussion of the historical and theoretical meaningfulness of the distinction between ‘objective’ and ‘subjective’ probability, as it supposedly emerged around 1840, by examining whether and how it appeared in the work of the mid-nineteenth-century British revisionist probabilists. A detailed analysis of the contributions of Augustus De Morgan, John Stuart Mill, George Boole, Robert Leslie Ellis and John Venn to probability is put forward in order to show that in so far as the terms did not appear as contradictories it is not possible to understand or compare these contributions with reference to the modern binary of ‘objective’ and ‘subjective’. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fluctuation scaling relationships have been observed in a wide range of processes ranging from internet router traffic to measles cases. Taylor’s law is one such scaling relationship and has been widely applied in ecology to understand communities including trees, birds, human populations, and insects. We show that monthly crime reports in the UK show complex fluctuation scaling which can be approximated by Taylor’s law relationships corresponding to local policing neighborhoods and larger regional and countrywide scales. Regression models applied to local scale data from Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire found that different categories of crime exhibited different scaling exponents with no significant difference between the two regions. On this scale, violence reports were close to a Poisson distribution (α = 1.057±0.026) while burglary exhibited a greater exponent (α = 1.292±0.029) indicative of temporal clustering. These two regions exhibited significantly different pre-exponential factors for the categories of anti-social behavior and burglary indicating that local variations in crime reports can be assessed using fluctuation scaling methods. At regional and countrywide scales, all categories exhibited scaling behavior indicative of temporal clustering evidenced by Taylor’s law exponents from 1.43±0.12 (Drugs) to 2.094±0081 (Other Crimes). Investigating crime behavior via fluctuation scaling gives insight beyond that of raw numbers and is unique in reporting on all processes contributing to the observed variance and is either robust to or exhibits signs of many types of data manipulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Faculty of Engineering at The University of Nottingham, UK, has developed interdisciplinary, hands-on workshops for primary schools that introduce space technology, its relevance to everyday life and the importance of science, technology, engineering and maths. The workshop activities for 7–11 year olds highlight the roles that space and satellite technology play in observing and monitoring the Earth's biosphere as well as being vital to communications in the modern digital world. The programme also provides links to ‘how science works’, the environment and citizenship and uses pixel art through the medium of digital photography to demonstrate the importance of maths in a novel and unconventional manner. The interactive programme of activities provides learners with an opportunity to meet ‘real’ scientists and engineers, with one of the key messages from the day being that anyone can become involved in science and engineering whatever their ability or subject of interest. The methodology introduces the role of scientists and engineers using space technology themes, but it could easily be adapted for use with any inspirational topic. Analysis of learners’ perceptions of science, technology, engineering and maths before and after participating in ENGage showed very positive and significant changes in their attitudes to these subjects and an increase in the number of children thinking they would be interested and capable in pursuing a career in science and engineering. This paper provides an overview of the activities, the methodology, the evaluation process and results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Brian Griffiths (1927–2008) was a British mathematician and educator who served as a member of the founding editorial board of Educational Studies in Mathematics. As a mathematician, Griffiths is remembered through his work on what continue to be known as ‘Griffiths-type’ topological spaces. As a mathematics educator, his most profound contribution was, with Geoffrey Howson, in offering a conceptualisation of the relationship between mathematics, society and curricula. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper traces the ebbs and flows of the history of geometry at Cambridge from the time of Cayley to 1940, and therefore the arrival of a branch of modern mathematics in Great Britain. Cayley had little immediate influence, but projective geometry blossomed and then declined during the reign of H.F. Baker, and was revived by Hodge at the end of the period. We also consider the implications these developments have for the concept of a school in the history of mathematics. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Recently, teacher recruitment and retention has been the focus of the government and a step taken to support recruitment was the abolishing of the skills tests. Initial teacher training providers became responsible for assessing trainees' mathematics rather than having it externally assessed. The purpose of this literature review is to synthesise the findings of recent studies conducted in the UK about the trainees' competence in mathematics and confidence in teaching it. Six electronic databases were searched, utilising a systematic approach, which identified only six relevant articles. This is significant as it demonstrates that, despite the evidence about the urgent need for intervention, there is limited research that explore how to address the issue of improving prospective primary school teachers' mathematics competence and confidence, especially in England. This systematic review contributes to the field by bringing attention to the important findings of these studies. Findings suggest that while some primary ITT trainees' competence and confidence about teaching mathematics is low, holding advanced level mathematics qualifications does not guarantee knowledge required to teach primary mathematics effectively. Some trainees have positive attitudes towards mathematics and, more importantly when this is not the case, both trainees' attitude towards learning and teaching mathematics can be improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expansion of higher education in the UK in the 1980s and the subsequent increase in student numbers has created greater variation in cohorts of students entering university. Entry requirements are more relaxed and students with lower pre-university (A-level) qualifications or alternative qualifications (BTEC, GNVQ) are routinely accepted onto MPharm degree programmes within the UK. Mathematics is a key component in the pharmacy degree programme and an understanding of basic mathematics is essential. This wide variation in mathematical ability coupled with increasing class sizes has led to various strategies being introduced to ensure that all students attain the required level of mathematical ability to complete the degree programme. This study investigates the use of a diagnostic test to improve both the teaching and learning experience. The paper describes an investigation into what may be learnt about students' background knowledge and skills from initial assessment and information about their prior qualifications, and how this information may be used to devise effective teaching and learning strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The object of this paper is examine possible reasons for the emergence of the Cambridge Mathematical Tripos, an institution which was to serve as a model for the introduction of competitive examinations throughout nineteenth-century Britain. After tracing the evolution of the Tripos, the links between this examination and the changing pattern of teaching within the Univesity are investigated and the possible influence of the threatened parliamentary visitation of 1749 on the formation of the Tripos is also discussed. The degree to which the early Tripos served meritocratic ideals is investigated through an analysis of the pattern of appointment to fellowships and college livings. Lastly, the reasons why mathematics loomed so large in Cambridge's early examination system are explored and the situation there contrasted with that at Oxford where logic, rather than mathematics, remained pre-eminent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Qualitative Research in Education (2014-6418) is the property of Qualitative Research in Education and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Background: Systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have suggested that maternal vitamin D (25[OH]D) and calcium supplementation increase birth weight. However, limitations of many trials were highlighted in the reviews. Our aim was to combine genetic and RCT data to estimate causal effects of these two maternal traits on offspring birth weight.Methods and Findings: We performed two-sample mendelian randomisation (MR) using genetic instrumental variables associated with 25(OH)D and calcium that had been identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS; sample 1; N = 122,123 for 25[OH]D and N = 61,275 for calcium). Associations between these maternal genetic variants and offspring birth weight were calculated in the UK Biobank (UKB) (sample 2; N = 190,406). We used data on mother-child pairs from two United Kingdom birth cohorts (combined N = 5,223) in sensitivity analyses to check whether results were influenced by fetal genotype, which is correlated with the maternal genotype (r ≈ 0.5). Further sensitivity analyses to test the reliability of the results included MR-Egger, weighted-median estimator, 'leave-one-out', and multivariable MR analyses. We triangulated MR results with those from RCTs, in which we used randomisation to supplementation with vitamin D (24 RCTs, combined N = 5,276) and calcium (6 RCTs, combined N = 543) as an instrumental variable to determine the effects of 25(OH)D and calcium on birth weight. In the main MR analysis, there was no strong evidence of an effect of maternal 25(OH)D on birth weight (difference in mean birth weight -0.03 g [95% CI -2.48 to 2.42 g, p = 0.981] per 10% higher maternal 25[OH]D). The effect estimate was consistent across our MR sensitivity analyses. Instrumental variable analyses applied to RCTs suggested a weak positive causal effect (5.94 g [95% CI 2.15-9.73, p = 0.002] per 10% higher maternal 25[OH]D), but this result may be exaggerated because of risk of bias in the included RCTs. The main MR analysis for maternal calcium also suggested no strong evidence of an effect on birth weight (-20 g [95% CI -44 to 5 g, p = 0.116] per 1 SD higher maternal calcium level). Some sensitivity analyses suggested that the genetic instrument for calcium was associated with birth weight via exposures that are independent of calcium levels (horizontal pleiotropy). Application of instrumental variable analyses to RCTs suggested that calcium has a substantial effect on birth weight (178 g [95% CI 121-236 g, p = 1.43 × 10-9] per 1 SD higher maternal calcium level) that was not consistent with any of the MR results. However, the RCT instrumental variable estimate may have been exaggerated because of risk of bias in the included RCTs. Other study limitations include the low response rate of UK Biobank, which may bias MR estimates, and the lack of suitable data to test whether the effects of genetic instruments on maternal calcium levels during pregnancy were the same as those outside of pregnancy.Conclusions: Our results suggest that maternal circulating 25(OH)D does not influence birth weight in otherwise healthy newborns. However, the effect of maternal circulating calcium on birth weight is unclear and requires further exploration with more research including RCT and/or MR analyses with more valid instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Identifying people at risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is a cornerstone of preventative cardiology. Risk prediction models currently recommended by clinical guidelines are typically based on a limited number of predictors with sub-optimal performance across all patient groups. Data-driven techniques based on machine learning (ML) might improve the performance of risk predictions by agnostically discovering novel risk predictors and learning the complex interactions between them. We tested (1) whether ML techniques based on a state-of-the-art automated ML framework (AutoPrognosis) could improve CVD risk prediction compared to traditional approaches, and (2) whether considering non-traditional variables could increase the accuracy of CVD risk predictions. Methods and findings: Using data on 423,604 participants without CVD at baseline in UK Biobank, we developed a ML-based model for predicting CVD risk based on 473 available variables. Our ML-based model was derived using AutoPrognosis, an algorithmic tool that automatically selects and tunes ensembles of ML modeling pipelines (comprising data imputation, feature processing, classification and calibration algorithms). We compared our model with a well-established risk prediction algorithm based on conventional CVD risk factors (Framingham score), a Cox proportional hazards (PH) model based on familiar risk factors (i.e, age, gender, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, reception of treatments for hypertension and body mass index), and a Cox PH model based on all of the 473 available variables. Predictive performances were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). Overall, our AutoPrognosis model improved risk prediction (AUC-ROC: 0.774, 95% CI: 0.768-0.780) compared to Framingham score (AUC-ROC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.720-0.728, p < 0.001), Cox PH model with conventional risk factors (AUC-ROC: 0.734, 95% CI: 0.729-0.739, p < 0.001), and Cox PH model with all UK Biobank variables (AUC-ROC: 0.758, 95% CI: 0.753-0.763, p < 0.001). Out of 4,801 CVD cases recorded within 5 years of baseline, AutoPrognosis was able to correctly predict 368 more cases compared to the Framingham score. Our AutoPrognosis model included predictors that are not usually considered in existing risk prediction models, such as the individuals’ usual walking pace and their self-reported overall health rating. Furthermore, our model improved risk prediction in potentially relevant sub-populations, such as in individuals with history of diabetes. We also highlight the relative benefits accrued from including more information into a predictive model (information gain) as compared to the benefits of using more complex models (modeling gain). Conclusions: Our AutoPrognosis model improves the accuracy of CVD risk prediction in the UK Biobank population. This approach performs well in traditionally poorly served patient subgroups. Additionally, AutoPrognosis uncovered novel predictors for CVD disease that may now be tested in prospective studies. We found that the “information gain” achieved by considering more risk factors in the predictive model was significantly higher than the “modeling gain” achieved by adopting complex predictive models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Seizures are the main cause of maternal death in women with epilepsy, but there are no tools for predicting seizures in pregnancy. We set out to develop and validate a prognostic model, using information collected during the antenatal booking visit, to predict seizure risk at any time in pregnancy and until 6 weeks postpartum in women with epilepsy on antiepileptic drugs.Methods and Findings: We used datasets of a prospective cohort study (EMPiRE) of 527 pregnant women with epilepsy on medication recruited from 50 hospitals in the UK (4 November 2011-17 August 2014). The model development cohort comprised 399 women whose antiepileptic drug doses were adjusted based on clinical features only; the validation cohort comprised 128 women whose drug dose adjustments were informed by serum drug levels. The outcome was epileptic (non-eclamptic) seizure captured using diary records. We fitted the model using LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression, and reported the performance using C-statistic (scale 0-1, values > 0.5 show discrimination) and calibration slope (scale 0-1, values near 1 show accuracy) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We determined the net benefit (a weighted sum of true positive and false positive classifications) of using the model, with various probability thresholds, to aid clinicians in making individualised decisions regarding, for example, referral to tertiary care, frequency and intensity of monitoring, and changes in antiepileptic medication. Seizures occurred in 183 women (46%, 183/399) in the model development cohort and in 57 women (45%, 57/128) in the validation cohort. The model included age at first seizure, baseline seizure classification, history of mental health disorder or learning difficulty, occurrence of tonic-clonic and non-tonic-clonic seizures in the 3 months before pregnancy, previous admission to hospital for seizures during pregnancy, and baseline dose of lamotrigine and levetiracetam. The C-statistic was 0.79 (95% CI 0.75, 0.84). On external validation, the model showed good performance (C-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.66, 0.85; calibration slope 0.93, 95% CI 0.44, 1.41) but with imprecise estimates. The EMPiRE model showed the highest net proportional benefit for predicted probability thresholds between 12% and 99%. Limitations of this study include the varied gestational ages of women at recruitment, retrospective patient recall of seizure history, potential variations in seizure classification, the small number of events in the validation cohort, and the clinical utility restricted to decision-making thresholds above 12%. The model findings may not be generalisable to low- and middle-income countries, or when information on all predictors is not available.Conclusions: The EMPiRE model showed good performance in predicting the risk of seizures in pregnant women with epilepsy who are prescribed antiepileptic drugs. Integration of the tool within the antenatal booking visit, deployed as a simple nomogram, can help to optimise care in women with epilepsy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the social heuristics hypothesis, people intuitively cooperate or defect depending on which behavior is beneficial in their interactions. If cooperation is beneficial, people intuitively cooperate, but if defection is beneficial, they intuitively defect. However, deliberation promotes defection. Here, we tested two novel predictions regarding the role of trust in the social heuristics hypothesis. First, whether trust promotes intuitive cooperation. Second, whether preferring to think intuitively or deliberatively moderates the effect of trust on cooperation. In addition, we examined whether deciding intuitively promotes cooperation, compared to deciding deliberatively. To evaluate these predictions, we conducted a lab study in Colombia and an online study in the United Kingdom (N = 1,066; one study was pre-registered). Unexpectedly, higher trust failed to promote intuitive cooperation, though higher trust promoted cooperation. In addition, preferring to think intuitively or deliberatively failed to moderate the effect of trust on cooperation, although preferring to think intuitively increased cooperation. Moreover, deciding intuitively failed to promote cooperation, and equivalence testing confirmed that this null result was explained by the absence of an effect, rather than a lack of statistical power (equivalence bounds: d = -0.26 and 0.26). An intuitive cooperation effect emerged when non-compliant participants were excluded, but this effect could be due to selection biases. Taken together, most results failed to support the social heuristics hypothesis. We conclude by discussing implications, future directions, and limitations. The materials, data, and code are available on the Open Science Framework (). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

England’s national Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) programme advocates stepped care as its organizational delivery of psychological therapies to common mental health problems. There is limited evidence regarding the efficacy of stepped care as a service delivery model, heterogeneity of definition and differences in model implementation in both research and routine practice, hence outcome comparison in terms of effectiveness of model is difficult. Despite sound evidence of the efficacy of low intensity interventions there appears to be a perpetuation of the notion that severity and complexity should only be treated by a high intensity intervention through the continuation of a stratified care model. Yet no psychotherapy treatment is found to be more superior to another, and not enough is known about what works for whom to aid the matching of treatment decision. In the absence of understanding precise treatment factors optimal for recovery, it may be useful to better understand the impact of a service delivery model, and whether different models achieve different outcomes. This study aims to contribute to the discussion regarding the stepped care definition and delivery, and explores the impact on clinical outcomes where different types of stepped care have been implemented within the same service. An observational cohort study analysed retrospective data (n = 16,723) over a 4 year period, in a single IAPT service, where delivery changed from one type of stepped care model to another. We compared the outcomes of treatment completers with a stratified care model and a progression care model. We also explored the assumption that patients who score severe on psychological measures, and therefore are potentially complex, would achieve better outcomes in a stratified model. Outcomes in each model type were compared, alongside baseline factor variables. A significant association was observed between a recovery outcome and model type, with patients 1.5 times more likely to recover in the progression delivery model. The potential implications are that with a progression stepped care model of service delivery, more patients can be treated with a lower intensity intervention, even with initial severe presentations, ensuring that only those that need high intensity CBT or equivalent are stepped up. This could provide services with an effective clinical model that is efficient and potentially more cost effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many disciplines of scholarship are interested in the Relative Age Effect (RAE), whereby age-banding confers advantages on older members of the cohort over younger ones. Most research does not test this relationship in a manner consistent with theory (which requires a decline in frequency across the cohort year), instead resorting to non-parametric, non-directional approaches. In this article, the authors address this disconnect, provide an overview of the benefits associated with Poisson regression modelling, and two managerially useful measures for quantifying RAE bias, namely the Indices of Discrimination and Wastage. In a tutorial-like exposition, applications and extensions of this approach are illustrated using data on professional soccer players competing in the top two tiers of the “Big Five” European football leagues in the search to identify paragon clubs, leagues, and countries from which others may learn to mitigate this form of age-discrimination in the talent identification process. As with OLS regression, Poisson regression may include more than one independent variable. In this way we test competing explanations of RAE; control for unwanted sources of covariation; model interaction effects (that different clubs and countries may not all be subject to RAE to the same degree); and test for non-monotonic versions of RAE suggested in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Psoriasis is a common inflammatory skin disease that has been reported to be associated with obesity. We aimed to investigate a possible causal relationship between body mass index (BMI) and psoriasis.Methods and Findings: Following a review of published epidemiological evidence of the association between obesity and psoriasis, mendelian randomization (MR) was used to test for a causal relationship with BMI. We used a genetic instrument comprising 97 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with BMI as a proxy for BMI (expected to be much less confounded than measured BMI). One-sample MR was conducted using individual-level data (396,495 individuals) from the UK Biobank and the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), Norway. Two-sample MR was performed with summary-level data (356,926 individuals) from published BMI and psoriasis genome-wide association studies (GWASs). The one-sample and two-sample MR estimates were meta-analysed using a fixed-effect model. To test for a potential reverse causal effect, MR analysis with genetic instruments comprising variants from recent genome-wide analyses for psoriasis were used to test whether genetic risk for this skin disease has a causal effect on BMI. Published observational data showed an association of higher BMI with psoriasis. A mean difference in BMI of 1.26 kg/m2 (95% CI 1.02-1.51) between psoriasis cases and controls was observed in adults, while a 1.55 kg/m2 mean difference (95% CI 1.13-1.98) was observed in children. The observational association was confirmed in UK Biobank and HUNT data sets. Overall, a 1 kg/m2 increase in BMI was associated with 4% higher odds of psoriasis (meta-analysis odds ratio [OR] = 1.04; 95% CI 1.03-1.04; P = 1.73 × 10(-60)). MR analyses provided evidence that higher BMI causally increases the odds of psoriasis (by 9% per 1 unit increase in BMI; OR = 1.09 (1.06-1.12) per 1 kg/m2; P = 4.67 × 10(-9)). In contrast, MR estimates gave little support to a possible causal effect of psoriasis genetic risk on BMI (0.004 kg/m2 change in BMI per doubling odds of psoriasis (-0.003 to 0.011). Limitations of our study include possible misreporting of psoriasis by patients, as well as potential misdiagnosis by clinicians. In addition, there is also limited ethnic variation in the cohorts studied.Conclusions: Our study, using genetic variants as instrumental variables for BMI, provides evidence that higher BMI leads to a higher risk of psoriasis. This supports the prioritization of therapies and lifestyle interventions aimed at controlling weight for the prevention or treatment of this common skin disease. Mechanistic studies are required to improve understanding of this relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Despite poor clinic communication and staff treatment being reported by donors, high rates of overall satisfaction are still reported in surveys. This study will evaluate the importance of communication and interaction between donors and fertility clinic staff in gamete donor care. Methods: We report on 120 egg and sperm donors’ responses to a UK-wide online satisfaction survey. The survey focused on donors’ interactions with fertility clinic staff pre-, during, and post- donation. Basic cross-tabulation was performed on the data using online survey software. Textual data was read and extracts identified, which illustrated and expanded on the findings from the numerical data. Diagrammatic modeling was also utilised to analyse the textual data, with particular focus to relationships between the donors and clinic staff, the main activities within the gamete donation process, and how these activities may affect donor satisfaction with the gamete donation process. Results: Donors expressed concern for the infertile couple and the resulting child; conveyed frustration at not receiving information on the expenses they could claim; felt lost in the system regarding the ease of making clinic appointments, and once made they were routinely not seen on time for these appointments. Donors also negatively commented on aftercare, the location and condition of the donation room, and information on contraception. In addition, Ovarian Hyperstimulation Syndrome was frequently reported, with these egg donors believing that clinic staff were not concerned with their physical or emotional well-being, but were instead disproportionately focused on extracting the eggs. Conclusions: The multifaceted notion of donors highlights the complexity inherent to the gamete donation process, which comprises various aspects of uncertainty in the donation system, and ambiguity in the donation process. Categorising donors as Altruist, Customer, and Patient, conveys the particular importance of staff communication and treatment in donor care. These categories are not mutually exclusive however, in that an individual donor may experience more than one of these perspectives during the course of their gamete donation journey. Finally, there were a number of exemplar cases, where donors reported high satisfaction throughout, and these correlated with them being given a single point of contact at the clinic. Subject to resource constraints, we suggest that this practice should be implemented throughout clinics in the UK, so that donors have access to dedicated clinic staff who not only support them emotionally and physically throughout the gamete donation process, but also ensure that communication is open, clear, timely, and consistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Street imagery is a promising and growing big data source providing current and historical images in more than 100 countries. Studies have reported using this data to audit road infrastructure and other built environment features. Here we explore a novel application, using Google Street View (GSV) to predict travel patterns at the city level. Methods: We sampled 34 cities in Great Britain. In each city, we accessed 2000 GSV images from 1000 random locations. We selected archived images from time periods overlapping with the 2011 Census and the 2011–2013 Active People Survey (APS). We manually annotated the images into seven categories of road users. We developed regression models with the counts of images of road users as predictors. The outcomes included Census-reported commute shares of four modes (combined walking plus public transport, cycling, motorcycle, and car), as well as APS-reported past-month participation in walking and cycling. Results: We found high correlations between GSV counts of cyclists (‘GSV-cyclists’) and cycle commute mode share (r = 0.92)/past-month cycling (r = 0.90). Likewise, GSV-pedestrians was moderately correlated with past-month walking for transport (r = 0.46), GSV-motorcycles was moderately correlated with commute share of motorcycles (r = 0.44), and GSV-buses was highly correlated with commute share of walking plus public transport (r = 0.81). GSV-car was not correlated with car commute mode share (r = –0.12). However, in multivariable regression models, all outcomes were predicted well, except past-month walking. The prediction performance was measured using cross-validation analyses. GSV-buses and GSV-cyclists are the strongest predictors for most outcomes. Conclusions: GSV images are a promising new big data source to predict urban mobility patterns. Predictive power was the greatest for those modes that varied the most (cycle and bus). With its ability to identify mode of travel and capture street activity often excluded in routinely carried out surveys, GSV has the potential to be complementary to new and traditional data. With half the world’s population covered by street imagery, and with up to 10 years historical data available in GSV, further testing across multiple settings is warranted both for cross-sectional and longitudinal assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Socioeconomic status has been shown to be associated with sexual activity, contraceptive-use, pregnancy and abortion among young people. Less is known about whether the strength of the association differs for each outcome, between men and women, or cross-nationally. We investigate this using contemporaneous national probability survey data from Britain and France. Methods: Data were analysed for 17–29 year-olds in Britain’s third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3, n = 5959) undertaken 2010–2012, and the 2010 French Fertility, Contraception and Sexual Dysfunction survey (FECOND, n = 3027). For each country, we estimated the gender-specific prevalence of sex before-16, contraceptive-use, conception before-20, and abortion in the event of conception, and used logistic regression to examine associations between two measures of socioeconomic status–educational-level and parental socioeconomic-group–and each outcome. We tested for interactions between socioeconomic characteristics and country, and socioeconomic characteristics and gender, for each outcome. Results: For each outcome, Britain and France differed with regard to prevalence but associations with socioeconomic characteristics were similar. Respondents of higher educational level, and, less consistently, with parents from higher socioeconomic-groups, were less likely to report sex before-16 (Britain, men: adjusted OR (aOR) 0.5, women: aOR 0.5; France, men: aOR 0.5, women: aOR 0.5), no contraception at first sex (Britain, men: aOR 0.4, women: aOR 0.6; France, men: aOR 0.4, women: aOR 0.4), pregnancy before-20 (Britain: aOR 0.3; France: aOR 0.1), and in Britain, a birth rather than an abortion in the event of conception (Britain: aOR 3.1). We found no strong evidence of variation in the magnitude of the associations with socioeconomic characteristics by country or gender. Conclusions: Population level differences in conception and abortion rates between the two countries may partly be driven by the larger proportion of the population that is disadvantaged in Britain. This research highlights the role intra-country comparisons can play in understanding young people’s sexual and reproductive behaviours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Health care systems in OECD countries are increasingly facing economic challenges and funding pressures. These normally demand interventions (political, financial and organisational) aimed at improving the efficiency of the health system as a whole and its single components. In 2009, the English NHS Chief Executive, Sir David Nicholson, warned that a potential funding gap of £20 billion should be met by extensive efficiency savings by March 2015. Our study investigates possible drivers of differential Trust performance (productivity) for the financial years 2010/11-2012/13. Methods: Following accounting practice, we define Productivity as the ratio of Outputs over Inputs. We analyse variation in both Total Factor and Labour Productivity using ordinary least squares regressions. We explicitly included in our analysis factors of differential performance highlighted in the Nicholson challenge as the sources were the efficiency savings should come from. Explanatory variables include efficiency in resource use measures, Trust and patient characteristics, and quality of care. Results: We find that larger Trusts and Foundation Trusts are associated with lower productivity, as are those treating a greater proportion of both older and/or younger patients. Surprisingly treating more patients in their last year of life is associated with higher Labour Productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: If the randomisation process within a trial is subverted, this can lead to selection bias that may invalidate the trial's result. To avoid this problem, it is recommended that some form of concealment should be put into place. Despite ongoing anecdotal concerns about their susceptibility to subversion, a surprising number of trials (over 10%) still use sealed opaque envelopes as the randomisation method of choice. This is likely due in part to the paucity of empirical data quantifying the potential effects of subversion. In this study we report a historical before and after study that compares the use of the sealed envelope method with a more secure centralised telephone allocation approach in order to provide such empirical evidence of the effects of subversion.Methods: This was an opportunistic before and after study set within a multi-centre surgical trial, which involved 654 patients from 28 clinicians from 23 centres in the UK and Ireland. Two methods of randomly allocating subjects to alternative treatments were adopted: (a) a sealed envelope system administered locally, and (b) a centralised telephone system administered by the trial co-ordination centre. Key prognostic variables were compared between randomisation methods: (a) age at trial entry, a key prognostic factor in the study, and (b) the order in which 'randomisation envelopes' were matched to subjects.Results: The median age of patients allocated to the experimental group with the sealed envelope system, was significantly lower both overall (59 vs 63 years, p < 0.01) and in particular for three clinicians (57 vs 72, p < 0.01; 33 vs 69, p < 0.001; 47 vs 72, p = 0.03). No differences in median age were found between the allocation groups for the centralised system.Conclusions: Due to inadequate allocation concealment with the sealed envelope system, the randomisation process was corrupted for patients recruited from three clinicians. Centralised randomisation ensures that treatment allocation is not only secure but seen to be secure. Where this proves to be impossible, allocation should at least be performed by an independent third party. Unless it is an absolute requirement, the use of sealed envelopes should be discontinued forthwith. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bovine tuberculosis is an important disease affecting the UK livestock industry. Controlling bovine tuberculosis (TB) is made more complex by the presence of a wildlife host, the Eurasian badger, Meles meles. Repeated large-scale badger culls implemented in the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) were associated with decreased cattle risks inside the culling area, but also with increased cattle risks up to the 2km outside the culling area. Intermediate reductions in badger density, as achieved by localised reactive culling in the RBCT, significantly increased cattle TB. Using a matched-pairs case-control study design (n = 221 pairs of cattle herds), we investigated the spatial scale over which localised badger culling had its biggest impact. We found that reactive badger culling had a significant positive association with the risk of cattle TB at distances of 1-3km and 3-5km, and that no such association existed over shorter distances (<1km). These findings indicate that localised badger culls had significant negative effects, not on the land on which culling took place, but, perhaps more importantly, on adjoining lands and farms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Repeated behaviours in stable contexts can become automatic habits. Habits are resistant to information-based techniques to change behaviour, but are contextually cued, so a change in behaviour context (e.g., location) weakens habit strength and can facilitate greater consideration of the behaviour. This idea was demonstrated in previous work, whereby people with strong environmental attitudes have lower car use, but only after recently moving home. We examine the habit discontinuity hypothesis by analysing the Understanding Society dataset with 18,053 individuals representative of the UK population, measuring time since moving home, travel mode to work, and strength of environmental attitudes. Results support previous findings where car use is significantly lower among those with stronger environmental views (but only after recently moving home), and in addition, demonstrate a trend where this effects decays as the time since moving home increases. We discuss results in light of moving into a new home being a potential ‘window of opportunity’ to promote pro-environmental behaviours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

UK Biobank includes 502,649 middle- and older-aged adults from the general population who have undergone detailed phenotypic assessment. The majority of participants completed tests of cognitive functioning, and on average four years later a sub-group of N = 20,346 participants repeated most of the assessment. These measures will be used in a range of future studies of health outcomes in this cohort. The format and content of the cognitive tasks were partly novel. The aim of the present study was to validate and characterize the cognitive data: to describe the inter-correlational structure of the cognitive variables at baseline assessment, and the degree of stability in scores across longitudinal assessment. Baseline cognitive data were used to examine the inter-correlational/factor-structure, using principal components analysis (PCA). We also assessed the degree of stability in cognitive scores in the subsample of participants with repeat data. The different tests of cognitive ability showed significant raw inter-correlations in the expected directions. PCA suggested a one-factor solution (eigenvalue = 1.60), which accounted for around 40% of the variance. Scores showed varying levels of stability across time-points (intraclass correlation range = 0.16 to 0.65). UK Biobank cognitive data has the potential to be a significant resource for researchers looking to investigate predictors and modifiers of cognitive abilities and associated health outcomes in the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Number sense is a key topic in mathematics education, and the identification of children’s misconceptions about number is, therefore, important. Information about students’ serious misconceptions can be quite significant for teachers, allowing them to change their teaching plans to help children overcome these misconceptions. In science education, interest in children’s alternative conceptions has led to the development of three- and four-tier tests that not only assess children’s understandings and misconceptions, but also examine children’s confidence in their responses. However, there are few such tests related to mathematical content, especially in studies of number sense. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate children’s performance and misconceptions with respect to number sense via a four-tier diagnostic test (Answer Tier → Confidence rating for Answer Tier → Reason Tier → Confidence rating for Reason Tier). Design and method: A total of 195 fifth graders (10–11 years old) from Taiwan participated in this study. The four-tier test was web-based and contained 40 items across five components of number sense. Findings: The results show that (1) students’ mean confidence rating for the answer tier was significantly higher than for the reason tier; (2) an average of 68% of students tended to have equal confidence ratings in both answer and reason tiers; (3) students who chose correct answers or reasons had higher mean confidence ratings in most items (36 out of 40) than those who did not; and (4) 16 misconceptions were identified and most of them were at a strong level. Conclusion: The four-tier test was able to identify several misconceptions in both the answer and reason tier and provide information about the confidence levels. By using such information, teachers may be better positioned to understand the nature of learners’ misconceptions about number sense and therefore support their pupils’ progress in mathematics. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Guided by Fuzzy Trace Theory, this study examined the impact of a 'Gist-based' leaflet on colorectal cancer screening knowledge and intentions; and tested the interaction with participants' numerical ability. Adults aged 45-59 years from four UK general practices were randomly assigned to receive standard information ('The Facts', n = 2,216) versus standard information plus 'The Gist' leaflet (Gist + Facts, n = 2,236). Questionnaires were returned by 964/4,452 individuals (22 %). 82 % of respondents reported having read the information, but those with poor numeracy were less likely (74 vs. 88 %, p < .001). The 'Gist + Facts' group were more likely to reach the criterion for adequate knowledge (95 vs. 91 %; p < .01), but this was not moderated by numeracy. Most respondents (98 %) intended to participate in screening, with no group differences and no interaction with numeracy. The improved levels of knowledge and self-reported reading suggest 'The Gist' leaflet may increase engagement with colorectal cancer screening, but ceiling effects reduced the likelihood that screening intentions would be affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]