1. Exploitable Predictable Irrationality: The FIFA World Cup Effect on the U.S. Stock Market.
- Author
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Kaplanski, Guy and Levy, Haim
- Subjects
FIFA World Cup ,STOCK exchanges ,RATE of return ,INVESTMENT policy ,EXPLOITATION of humans ,LONG run (Economics) ,ECONOMICS - Abstract
In a recently published paper, Edmans, García, and Norli (2007) reveal a strong association between results of soccer games and local stock returns. Inspired by their work, we propose a novel approach to exploit this effect on the aggregate international level with the following three unique features: i) The aggregate effect does not depend on the games' results; hence, the effect is an exploitable predictable effect. ii) The aggregate effect is based on many games; hence, it is very large and highly significant. We find that the average return on the U.S. market over the World Cup's effect period is -2.58%, compared to +1.21% for all-days average returns over the same period length. iii) Exploiting the aggregate effect is involved with trading in a single index for a relatively long period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2010
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