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At the beginning of 2023, the Italian former prime minister, the former health minister and 17 others including the current president of the Lombardy region were placed under investigation on suspicion of aggravated culpable epidemic in connection with the government's response at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The charges revolve around the failure by authorities to take adequate measures to prevent the spread of the virus in the Bergamo area, which experienced a significant excess of deaths during the initial outbreak. The aim of this paper is to analyse the pandemic data of Italy and the Lombardy region in the first 10 days of the pandemic, spanning from the 24th of February 2020 to the 4th of March 2020. The objective is to determine whether the use of early warning indicators could have facilitated the identification of a critical increase in infections. This identification, in turn, would have enabled the timely formulation of strategies for pandemic containment, thereby reducing the number of deaths. In conclusion, to translate our findings into practical guidelines, we propose a low-cost early warning method for infectious respiratory diseases with asymptomatic carriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infectious disease epidemics are challenging for medical and public health practitioners. They require prompt treatment, but it is challenging to recognize and define epidemics in real time. Knowing the prediction of an infectious disease epidemic can evaluate and prevent the disease's impact. Mathematical models of epidemics that work in real time are important tools for preventing disease, and data-driven deep learning enables practical algorithms for identifying parameters in mathematical models. In this paper, the SIR model was reduced to a logistic differential equation involving a constant parameter and a time-dependent function. The time-dependent function leads to constant, rational, and birational models. These models use several constant parameters from the available data to predict the time and number of people reported to be infected with the COVID-19 Omicron variant. Two out of these three models, rational and birational, provide accurate predictions for countries that practice strict mitigation measures, but fail to provide accurate predictions for countries that practice partial mitigation measures. Therefore, we introduce a time-series model based on neural networks to predict the time and number of people reported to be infected with the COVID-19 Omicron variant in a given country that practices both partial and strict mitigation measures. A logistics-informed neural network algorithm was also introduced. This algorithm takes as input the daily and cumulative number of people who are reported to be infected with the COVID-19 Omicron variant in the given country. The algorithm helps determine the analytical solution involving several constant parameters for each model from the available data. The accuracy of these models is demonstrated using error metrics on Omicron variant data for Portugal, Italy, and China. Our findings demonstrate that the constant model could not accurately predict the daily or cumulative infections of the COVID-19 Omicron variant in the observed country because of the long series of existing data of the epidemics. However, the rational and birational models accurately predicted cumulative infections in countries adopting strict mitigation measures, but they fell short in predicting the daily infections. Furthermore, both models performed poorly in countries with partial mitigation measures. Notably, the time-series model stood out for its versatility, effectively predicting both daily and cumulative infections in countries irrespective of the stringency of their mitigation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19, which broke out globally in 2019, is an infectious disease caused by a novel strain of coronavirus, and its spread is highly contagious and concealed. Environmental vectors play an important role in viral infection and transmission, which brings new difficulties and challenges to disease prevention and control. In this paper, a type of differential equation model is constructed according to the spreading functions and characteristics of exposed individuals and environmental vectors during the virus infection process. In the proposed model, five compartments were considered, namely, susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, infected individuals, recovered individuals, and environmental vectors (contaminated with free virus particles). In particular, the re-positive factor was taken into account (i.e., recovered individuals who have lost sufficient immune protection may still return to the exposed class). With the basic reproduction number R0 of the model, the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and uniform persistence of the model were completely analyzed. Furthermore, sufficient conditions for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium of the model were also given. Finally, the effective predictability of the model was tested by fitting COVID-19 data from Japan and Italy.

This paper has explored the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Italian stock market at an industry level, analysing companies listed in the two major stock indexes: MIB 30 and STAR. Using daily firm-level stock prices (from December 2019, until October 31, 2020), we employed an event-study approach to analyse short-term stock market reactions, considering different pandemic windows period. Results showed that stocks reacted negatively to the announcement of the first case in the country, with deep reversal effects when the country was locked down. Monetary policy measures showed potential to ease stock markets: the announcement of Next Generation Agreement highlights the reversed role of Market Capitalization. Firm-specific variables were included in order to make inferences about firm characteristics that emerged as value drivers during the pandemic: in the first lockdown period, a greater company's capitalization ensured a greater resilience to the Covid-19 shock. Reversals at both an industry and a company level are observed. Results allow to understand how an outbreak of contagious disease affects stock returns in various sectors, helping investors to develop trading strategies to protect their wealth from future epidemics and providing inputs into the assessment of economic vulnerability to pandemic crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented social, financial, and moral disruptions across the globe despite global efforts to reduce the transmission of the novel coronavirus. Currently, vaccinating populations against COVID-19 has emerged as the most sustainable strategy to help countries recover from the socioeconomic effects of COVID-19 while protecting public health. To meet vaccination targets, some countries have adopted policies that rely on varying levels of coercion. This paper analyses the ethical implications of coercive vaccination policies implemented in Singapore and Italy, which impose barriers to accessing healthcare on the unvaccinated. These two cases are compared to the vaccine mandate in New Zealand, which did not restrict access to healthcare for the unvaccinated. This analysis draws on key considerations from Kass' ethical framework for assessing public health intervention. This analysis is relevant to countries considering similar policies to increase vaccination uptake for infectious diseases. Since healthcare is a fundamental good, a critical question is whether imposing barriers to accessing healthcare services is an ethically justifiable consequence of the choice to remain unvaccinated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 is the highly communicable disease which is being announced as pandemic by WHO. The disease has already impacted the economies of big nations like China, Italy, United states etc and now this disease is hitting our developing country i.e. India too. COVID-19 or Corona virus is human to human spread disease and thus social distancing is the only measure which everyone can take to minimize its spread. National lockdown is the measure taken by Government to create distance among people. But what will be the probable impact of this lockdown on different sectors of our country. This paper aims to analyze impact of COVID-19 on the educational sector of India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of human mobility have been known to play a critical role in the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19. In this paper, we present a simple compact way to model the transmission of infectious disease through transportation networks using widely available aggregate mobility data in the form of a zone-level origin-destination (OD) travel flow matrix. A key feature of our model is that it not only captures the propagation of infection via direct connections between zones (first-order effects) as in most existing studies but also transmission effects that are due to subsequent interactions in the remainder of the system (higher-order effects). We demonstrate the importance of capturing higher-order effects in a simulation study. We then apply our model to study the first wave of COVID-19 infections in (i) Italy, and, (ii) the New York Tri-State area. We use daily data on mobility between Italian provinces (province-level OD data) and between Tri-State Area counties (county-level OD data), and daily reported caseloads at the same geographical levels. Our empirical results indicate substantial predictive power, particularly during the early stages of the outbreak. Our model forecasts at least 85% of the spatial variation in observed weekly COVID-19 cases. Most importantly, our model delivers crucial metrics to identify target areas for intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European countries struggled to fight against the second and the third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) strategy widely adopted over the summer and early fall 2020 failed to contain the spread of the disease effectively. This paper sheds light on the effectiveness of such a strategy in two European countries (Spain and Italy) by analysing data from June to December 2020, collected via a large-scale online citizen survey with 95,251 and 43,393 answers in Spain and Italy, respectively. Our analysis describes several weaknesses in each of the three pillars of the TTI strategy: Test, Trace, and Isolate. We find that 40% of respondents had to wait more than 48 hours to obtain coronavirus tests results, while literature has shown that a delay of more than one day might make tracing all cases inefficient. We also identify limitations in the manual contact tracing capabilities in both countries, as only 29% of respondents in close contact with a confirmed infected individual reported having been contact traced. Moreover, our analysis shows that more than 45% of respondents report being unable to self-isolate if needed. We also analyse the mitigation strategies deployed to contain the second wave of coronavirus. We find that these interventions were particularly effective in Italy, where close contacts were reduced by more than 20% in the general population. Finally, we analyse the participants' perceptions about the coronavirus risk associated with different daily activities. We observe that they are often gender- and age-dependent, and not aligned with the actual risk identified by the literature. This finding emphasises the importance of deploying public-health communication campaigns to debunk misconceptions about SARS-CoV-2. Overall, our work illustrates the value of online citizen surveys to quickly and efficiently collect large-scale population data to support and evaluate policy decisions to combat the spread of infectious diseases, such as coronavirus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2015, new disability weights (DWs) for infectious diseases were constructed based on data from four European countries. In this paper, we evaluated if country, age, sex, disease experience status, income and educational levels have an impact on these DWs., Methods: We analyzed paired comparison responses of the European DW study by participants' characteristics with separate probit regression models. To evaluate the effect of participants' characteristics, we performed correlation analyses between countries and within country by respondent characteristics and constructed seven probit regression models, including a null model and six models containing participants' characteristics. We compared these seven models using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)., Results: According to AIC, the probit model including country as covariate was the best model. We found a lower correlation of the probit coefficients between countries and income levels (range rs: 0.97-0.99, P < 0.01) than between age groups (range rs: 0.98-0.99, P < 0.01), educational level (range rs: 0.98-0.99, P < 0.01), sex (rs = 0.99, P < 0.01) and disease status (rs = 0.99, P < 0.01). Within country the lowest correlations of the probit coefficients were between low and high income level (range rs = 0.89-0.94, P < 0.01)., Conclusions: We observed variations in health valuation across countries and within country between income levels. These observations should be further explored in a systematic way, also in non-European countries. We recommend future researches studying the effect of other characteristics of respondents on health assessment., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.)

Highly contagious diseases, such as mumps, are a global concern as new epidemics continue to emerge, even in highly vaccinated populations. The risk of transmission and spread of these viruses is even higher for individuals who are more likely to be exposed, including healthcare workers (HCWs). In healthcare settings, both HCWs and patients are at risk of infection during the care process, potentially leading to nosocomial epidemic outbreaks. Mumps is often underestimated compared with measles and rubella, despite being milder and less likely to spread. In fact, the risk of complications following mumps infection is extremely high, especially if the disease occurs in adulthood. The measles–mumps–rubella (MMR) vaccine has been shown to be an excellent preventive measure. Unfortunately, the mumps component appears to be less effective in inducing immunity than those for measles and rubella (two-dose effectiveness of 85%, 95% and 97%, respectively). The main aim of our study was to investigate the prevalence of detectable mumps antibodies (serum IgG antibodies) in a cohort of Italian and foreign HCWs in relation to personal and occupational factors. We included in the study 468 subjects who underwent health surveillance at the Occupational Medicine Unit of the Tor Vergata Polyclinic in Rome during the period from January 2021 to March 2023. In our study, the proportion of HCWs found to be unprotected against mumps was very high (8.3%), and those found to be immune are below the WHO threshold for herd immunity (95%). From our data, it seems essential that all occupational health services carry out an accurate screening with a dose of anti-mumps antibodies to assess serological protection before starting a job, regardless of an individual's vaccination history. This approach is proving to be beneficial, accurate, as it allows all serologically non-immune individuals to be vaccinated in the workplace, including those who would be protected by their vaccination history but have lost the antibody response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tdap and flu immunization in pregnancy has been proven to be both effective and safe. Despite this, the vaccination rate in pregnant women is low in Italy. The COVID-19 pandemic has focused the attention of public opinion on communicable diseases, underlining the importance of primary prevention measures such as vaccination. We conducted a survey to investigate the behavior of pregnant women during the COVID-19 pandemic regarding maternal immunization to identify the reasons for vaccine hesitancy in order to overcome them. The new challenge is COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy, and preliminary data show hesitancy towards it. Our analysis may be useful to improve immunization in the pregnant population, including through the COVID-19 vaccine. Methods: A targeted survey was performed in Italy including 520 women who experienced in the first trimester of pregnancy, prior to the novel coronavirus spread, the 2019–2020 influenza vaccination campaign and the Tdap vaccine recommendation in the third trimester during the COVID pandemic. They represent a unique model to investigate if the new coronavirus outbreak might have changed attitudes towards vaccination in pregnancy in the same patients. Data were collected from a self-completed paper questionnaire. Descriptive statistics were calculated and percentages were compared using the chi-2 test or Fisher's exact test. Results: We obtained data from 195 of the 520 women who gave birth during the inclusion period; 325 cases declined to participate in the survey. A total of 8.7% (17 cases) performed flu vaccination in the first trimester of pregnancy (pre-COVID era), 50.8% (99 cases) accepted Tdap immunization during their third trimester of gestation (COVID-19 pandemic) and 6.7% (13 cases) received both vaccines during pregnancy. For both the flu and Tdap shots, pregnant patients were more likely to accept the vaccines if they were recommended by a healthcare provider, whereas the main reason not to be vaccinated was the lack of such a recommendation. Conclusions: Our survey shows that the COVID-19 experience, which has raised awareness as to the role of vaccines in preventable diseases, may positively change attitudes toward immunization in pregnancy. Vaccination must be recommended to all pregnant women and organized during routine prenatal care as an important element for the prevention of communicable diseases. Vaccination hesitancy can be minimized through consistent recommendation to all pregnant women offered by obstetric staff during routine prenatal care. This approach is likely to be effective in terms of building trust in flu and Tdpa immunization among pregnant women, as well as to avoid unjustified hesitancy towards the more recent COVID-19 vaccines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: This paper aims to measure the performance of early detection methods, which are usually used for infectious diseases. Methodology: By using real data of confirmed Coronavirus cases from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Italy, the moving epidemic method (MEM) and the moving average cumulative sums (Mov. Avg Cusum) methods are used in our simulation study. Results: Our results suggested that the CUSUM method outperforms the MEM in detecting the start of the Coronavirus outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present research aimed at understanding individuals' vaccination intentions and protective behaviours against COVID-19 through two different studies. In Study 1 (N = 213, 73% women; mean age = 24.03) the Protection Motivation Theory model was tested considering the fear of COVID-19 as a possible mediator between threat appraisal (in terms of both health and social life) and intentions to get vaccinated when the vaccination was not yet available. Study 2 (N = 1111, 68.9% women; mean age = 38.33) was conducted when the vaccine became available for the entire population. Through this study, by adopting the 5C model of vaccine hesitancy as a theoretical framework, we aimed to understand how people who got vaccinated and the ones who did not differed, considering fear of vaccination, personality and vaccination hesitancy. In Study 1, social limitations, perceived severity and COVID-19 perceived vulnerability were significantly and positively related to fear of COVID-19. Contrary to what we expected, fear of COVID-19 was not a significant predictor of vaccination intention, which was predicted by both response efficacy and self-efficacy. In Study 2, in line with previous studies, vaccine hesitancy was negatively related to vaccination. More specifically, the social-oriented dimension of collective responsibility was the strongest predictor of effective behaviour. Our findings provide insights into the complexity of vaccine acceptance and emphasise the need for targeted interventions to promote vaccination and mitigate the spread of infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We discuss the probable presence of tuberculosis in non-adults of a medieval rural community in northern Italy with a biocultural perspective. Before birth, mother and child have a closely interconnected relationship, as suggested by the role of microchimerism on maternal health. To better understand maternal–child health and related stress factors, paleopathology has investigated the potential of this relationship in recent years. Diseases with environmental development factors such as infections depend on and are strongly affected by maternal control variables such as, for example, breastfeeding and the growth environment. This article presents ISZ2, the second possible case of childhood tuberculosis identified in northeastern Italy through recent paleopathological criteria. The subject is of primary importance as it not only represents a direct testimony of this infectious disease otherwise known only from historical sources, but also increases our knowledge on the state of health of infants in this area, which to date are scarcely analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite its effectiveness in preventing invasive meningococcal disease (IMD), pediatric uptake of recombinant meningococcal vaccination for serogroup B meningitis (MenB) is low in Italy. This study aimed to investigate knowledge, attitudes, and practice (KAP) about IMD and the vaccine uptake for MenB from July to December 2019, in a sample collected from a series of local Facebook discussion groups from the provinces of Parma and Reggio Emilia (North-Eastern Italy; 337,104 registered users). A self-administered anonymous web-based questionnaire was used to collect demographics, knowledge status, perceived risk for contracting meningitis, attitude towards the utility of meningococcal vaccine, and willingness to receive/perform MenB vaccine in their offspring. In total, 541 parents returned a fully completed questionnaire (response rate of 1.6% of potential recipients), with a mean age of 39.2 years ± 6.3 (78.1% females). Meningococcal infection was identified as severe or highly severe by most participants (88.9%), while it was recognized as being frequent/highly frequent in the general population by 18.6% of respondents. The overall knowledge status was unsatisfactory (57.6% ± 33.6 of correct answers to the knowledge test). Even though 63.4% of participants were somewhat favorable to MenB/MenC vaccines, offspring's vaccination towards MenB was reported by only 38.7% of participants. In a binary logistic regression model, the male gender of respondents (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.184, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 1.772 to 5.721), living in a municipality >15,000 inhabitants (aOR 1.675, 95%CI 1.051 to 2.668), reporting a favorable attitude on meningococcus B vaccine (aOR 12.472, 95%CI 3.030 to 51.338), having been vaccinated against serogroup B (aOR 5.624, 95%CI 1.936 to 16.337) and/or serogroup C (aOR 2.652, 95%CI 1.442 to 4.872), and having previously vaccinated their offspring against serogroup C meningococcus (aOR 6.585, 95%CI 3.648 to 11.888) were characterized as positive effectors of offspring's vaccination. On the contrary, having a higher risk perception on vaccines was identified as the only negative effector (aOR 0.429, 95%CI 0.241 to 0.765). Our results hint towards extensive knowledge gaps on IMD and preventive interventions in the general population, suggesting that a positive attitude towards vaccines and vaccinations could be identified as the main effector also for MenB acceptance. Interventions in the general population aimed at improving confidence, compliance, and acknowledgment of the collective responsibility, as well as preventing actual constraints and the sharing of false beliefs on infectious diseases and their preventive measures, could therefore increase vaccination acceptance in both targeted individuals and their offspring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases such as Zika, SARS, ncovid19 and Pertussis, pose a compelling challenge for epidemiologists due to their significant impact on global public health. In this context, computational models and computer simulations are one of the available research tools that epidemiologists can exploit to better understand the spreading characteristics of these diseases and to decide on vaccination policies, human interaction controls, and other social measures to counter, mitigate or simply delay the spread of the infectious diseases. Nevertheless, the construction of mathematical models for these diseases and their solutions remain a challenging tasks due to the fact that little effort has been devoted to the definition of a general framework easily accessible even by researchers without advanced modelling and mathematical skills. Results: In this paper we describe a new general modeling framework to study epidemiological systems, whose novelties and strengths are: (1) the use of a graphical formalism to simplify the model creation phase; (2) the implementation of an R package providing a friendly interface to access the analysis techniques implemented in the framework; (3) a high level of portability and reproducibility granted by the containerization of all analysis techniques implemented in the framework; (4) a well-defined schema and related infrastructure to allow users to easily integrate their own analysis workflow in the framework. Then, the effectiveness of this framework is showed through a case of study in which we investigate the pertussis epidemiology in Italy. Conclusions: We propose a new general modeling framework for the analysis of epidemiological systems, which exploits Petri Net graphical formalism, R environment, and Docker containerization to derive a tool easily accessible by any researcher even without advanced mathematical and computational skills. Moreover, the framework was implemented following the guidelines defined by Reproducible Bioinformatics Project so it guarantees reproducible analysis and makes simple the developed of new user-defined workflows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Honeybee health can be compromised not only by infectious and infesting diseases, but also by the acute or chronic action of certain pesticides. In recent years, there have been numerous reports of colony mortality by Italian beekeepers, but the investigations of these losses have been inconsistent, both in relation to the type of personnel involved (beekeepers, official veterinarians, members of the police force, etc.) and the procedures utilized. It was therefore deemed necessary to draw up national guidelines with the aim of standardizing sampling active ties. In this paper, we present the results of a survey carried out in Italy from 2015 to 2019, following these guidelines. Residues of 150 pesticides in 696 samples were analyzed by LC-MS/MS and GC-MS/MS. On average, 50% of the honeybee samples were positive for one or more pesticides with an average of 2 different pesticides per sample and a maximum of seven active ingredients, some of which had been banned in Europe or were not authorized in Italy. Insecticides were the most frequently detected, mainly belonging to the pyrethroid group (49%, above all tau-fluvalinate), followed by organophosphates (chlorpyrifos, 18%) and neonicotinoids (imidacloprid, 7%). This work provides further evidence of the possible relationship between complex pesticide exposure and honeybee mortality and/or depopulation of hives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This cross-sectional survey aimed to determine the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors regarding vaccinations among schoolteachers in Italy. Methods: Data were collected through an online questionnaire from September 2020 to May 2021 from a sample of schoolteachers in the Campania region of southern Italy. Results: Only 27% of the participants had good knowledge about the vaccinations recommended for schoolteachers. Females who had children, who were unsatisfied by their health status, and not needing additional information about vaccinations were more likely to have good knowledge. Moreover, 61.5% perceived that vaccinations are useful in preventing infectious diseases, and 44.5% agreed or strongly agreed that vaccinations should be mandatory for schoolteachers. The results of multivariate logistic regression showed that schoolteachers who perceived that vaccinations are useful in preventing infectious diseases, who considered the recommended vaccinations to be useful to protecting their own and their students' health, who believed that information received about vaccination was useful, and who needed additional information about vaccinations recommended for schoolteachers, were significantly more likely to agree or strongly agree that vaccinations should be mandatory for schoolteachers. Conclusions: These findings suggest the need for education strategies to ensure that schoolteachers are better informed about vaccinations recommended for their profession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discontinuation of antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) and increased antibiotic use were described during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In order to measure COVID-19 impact on ASPs in a setting of high multidrug resistance organisms (MDRO) prevalence, a qualitative survey was designed. In July 2021, eighteen ID Units were asked to answer a questionnaire about their hospital characteristics, ASPs implementation status before the pandemic and impact of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on ASPs after the 1st and 2nd pandemic waves in Italy. Nine ID centres (50%) reported a reduction of ASPs and in 7 cases (38.9%) these were suspended. After the early pandemic waves, the proportion of centres that restarted their ASPs was higher among the ID centres where antimicrobial stewardship was formally identified as a priority objective (9/11, 82%, vs 2/7, 28%). SARS-CoV-2 pandemic had a severe impact in ASPs in a region highly affected by COVID-19 and antimicrobial resistance but weaknesses related to the pre-existent ASPs might have played a role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), a human viral infectious disease caused by the tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), is emerging in Italy, especially in the north-eastern area. No human cases of autochthonous TBE have been reported in Italy's central regions (such as Emilia-Romagna, Italy). However, here we describe the first human case of TBEV infection in this region, pointing to endemic transmission of TBEV, supporting the concept of circulation of TBEV and of the presence of a possible hot spot in the Serramazzoni region in the Emilian Apennines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically impacted many aspects of society and has indirectly produced various psychological consequences. This systematic review aimed to estimate the worldwide prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in children due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to identify protective or risk factors contributing to child PTSD. Methods. We conducted a systematic literature search in the PubMed, ProQuest, PsycINFO, Embase, Web of Science, WanFang, CNKI, and VIP databases. We searched for studies published between January 1, 2020 and May 26, 2021, that reported the prevalence of child PTSD due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as factors contributing to child PTSD. Eighteen studies were included in our systematic review, of which 10 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Results. The estimated prevalence of child PTSD after the COVID-19 outbreak was 28.15% (95% CI: 19.46–36.84%, I 2 = 99.7%). In subgroup analyses for specific regions the estimated prevalence of post-pandemic child PTSD was 19.61% (95% CI: 11.23–27.98%) in China, 50.8% (95% CI: 34.12–67.49%) in the USA, and 50.08% in Italy (95% CI: 47.32–52.84%). Conclusions. Factors contributing to child PTSD were categorized into four aspects: personal factors, family factors, social factors and infectious diseases related factors. Based on this, we presented a new framework summarizing the occurrence and influence of the COVID-19 related child PTSD, which may contribute to a better understanding, prevention and development of interventions for child PTSD in forthcoming pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Psoriatic patients with latent tuberculosis infection and properly treated active tuberculosis need careful management when prescribing modern biological drugs. Although data and guidelines regarding tumour necrosis factor-α inhibitors advise caution and initiation of prophylactic therapy in patients with latent tuberculosis infection, the same indications do not seem to find equal force for interleukin (IL)-23 and IL-17 inhibitors. In order to evaluate the risk of reactivation in patients with latent tuberculosis infection or properly treated active tuberculosis, an observational retrospective study was conducted on the population referred to our centre at Dermatologic Clinic of University of Turin, Italy. In the last 10 years at the clinic 19 psoriatic patients were found to be at risk of tuberculosis reactivation: 10 patients were QuantiFERON-TB-positive at baseline, 2 became positive during treatment, 6 reported prior tuberculous infection, and 1 was QuantiFERON-TB-negative at baseline and developed disseminated tuberculosis during treatment with anti-tumour necrosis factor-α. Overall, 10.5% of this group of patients developed active tuberculosis; however, stratifying by biologic therapy, zero cases were observed among patients treated with anti-IL-17, -23, or -12/23 over a relatively long followup (48.1 months) A review of the available literature following our experience confirms the increased risk of tuberculosis reactivation with tumour necrosis factor-α inhibitors. Concerning anti-IL-23 and IL-17 drugs, available data showed high safety in patients at risk of tuberculosis reactivation. Screening of patients who should be taking IL-17 and IL-23 inhibitors is recommended for public health purposes. In case of a positive result with these therapies, consulting with an infectious diseases specialist is suggested in order to weigh up the risks and benefits of prophylactic treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we describe the advances in the field of pediatrics that have been published in the Italian Journal of Pediatrics in 2020. We report progresses in understanding allergy, autoinflammatory disorders, critical care, endocrinology, genetics, infectious diseases, microbiota, neonatology, neurology, nutrition, orthopedics, respiratory tract illnesses, rheumatology in childhood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A discrete-time deterministic epidemic model is proposed to better understand the contagious dynamics and the behaviour observed in the incidence of real infectious diseases. For this purpose, we analyse a SIRS model both in a random-mixing approach and in a small-world network formulation. The models include the basic parameters that characterize an epidemic: infection and recovery times, as well as mechanisms of contagion. Depending on the parameters, the random-mixing model has different types of behaviour of an epidemic: pathogen extinction; endemic infection; sustained oscillations and dynamic extinction. Spatial effects are included in our network-based approach, where each individual of a population is represented by a node of a small-world network. Our network-based approach includes rewiring connections to account for time-varying network structure, a consequence of the natural response to the emergence of an epidemic (e.g. avoiding contacts with infected individuals). Random and adaptive rewiring conditions are analysed and numerical simulation are made. A comparison of model predictions with the actual effects of COVID-19 infection on population that occurred in Italy and France is produced. Results of the time series of infected people show that our adaptive evolving networks represent effective strategies able to decrease the epidemic spreading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Since the beginning of the pandemic, the epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy has been characterized by the occurrence of subnational outbreaks. The World Health Organization recommended building the capacity to rapidly control COVID-19 clusters of cases in order to avoid the spread of the disease. This study describes a subregional outbreak of COVID-19 that occurred in the Emilia Romagna region, Italy, and the intervention undertaken to successfully control it. Methods Cases of COVID-19 were defined by a positive reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on nasopharyngeal swab. The outbreak involved the residential area of a small town, with ~10 500 inhabitants in an area of 9 km2. After the recognition of the outbreak, local health care authorities implemented strict quarantine and a rearrangement of health care services, consisting of closure of general practitioner outpatient clinics, telephone contact with all residents, activation of health care units to visit at-home patients with symptoms consistent with COVID-19, and a dedicated Infectious Diseases ambulatory unit at the nearest hospital. Results The outbreak lasted from February 24 to April 6, 2020, involving at least 170 people with a cumulative incidence of 160 cases/10 000 inhabitants; overall, 448 inhabitants of the municipality underwent at least 1 nasopharyngeal swab to detect SARS-CoV-2 (positivity rate, 38%). Ninety-three people presented symptoms before March 11 (pre-intervention period), and 77 presented symptoms during the postintervention period (March 11–April 6). Conclusions It was possible to control this COVID-19 outbreak by prompt recognition and implementation of a targeted local intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) requires lengthy use of second-line drugs, burdened by many side effects. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronic infection increases risk of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) in these patients. Data on MDR-TB patients with concurrent HCV chronic infection treated at the same time with second-line antitubercular drugs and new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are lacking. We evaluate if treating at the same time HCV infection and pulmonary MDR-TB is feasible and effective.Cases Presentation: In this study, we described two cases of patients with pulmonary MDR-TB and concurrent HCV chronic infection cured with DAAs at a Tertiary Infectious Diseases Hospital in Italy. During antitubercular treatment, both patients experienced a DILI before treating HCV infection. After DAAs liver enzymes normalized and HCV RNA was undetectable. Then antitubercular regimen was started according to the institutional protocol, drawn up following WHO MDR-TB guidelines. It was completed without further liver side effects and patients were declared cured from both HCV infection and MDR-TB.Conclusions: We suggest to consider treatment of chronic hepatitis C with DAAs as a useful intervention for reintroduction of second-line antitubercular agents in those patients who developed DILI, reducing the risk of treatment interruption when re-exposed to these drugs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infectious diseases are a common cause of death in young dogs. Several factors are thought to predispose young dogs to microbiological infections. Identifying the cause of death is often a challenge, and broad diagnostic analysis is often needed. Here, we aimed to determine the infectious causes of death in young dogs aged up to 1 year, examining how it relates to age (under and over 6 months), lifestyle (owned versus ownerless), breed (purebred and crossbreed), and gender. A retrospective study was conducted in a 3-year period (2015–2017) on 138 dead dogs that had undergone necropsy and microbiological diagnostics. Enteritis and pneumonia were the most commonly observed lesions. Polymicrobism was more prevalent (62.3%) than single-agent infections and associated with a higher rate of generalised lesions. Ownerless dogs showed over a three-fold higher predisposition to viral coinfections than owned dogs. Above all, canine parvovirus was the most prevalent agent (77.5%), followed by canine coronavirus (31.1%) and canine adenovirus (23.9%); ownerless pups had a higher predisposition to these viruses. Escherichia coli (23.9%), Clostridium perfringens type A (18.1%), and Enterococcus spp. (8.7%) were the most commonly identified bacteria, which mostly involved in coinfections. A lower prevalence of CDV and Clostridium perfringens type A was observed in puppies under 6 months of age. In conclusion, this study is the first comprehensive survey on a wide panel of microbiological agents related to necropsy lesions. It lays the groundwork for future studies attempting to understand the circulation of infectious agents in a determined area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we aim to determine the main factors driving self-initiated behavioral changes during the seasonal flu. To this end, we designed and deployed a questionnaire via Influweb, a Web platform for participatory surveillance in Italy, during the 2017 − 18 and 2018 − 19 seasons. We collected 599 surveys completed by 434 users. The data provide socio-demographic information, level of concerns about the flu, past experience with illnesses, and the type of behavioral changes voluntarily implemented by each participant. We describe each response with a set of features and divide them in three target categories. These describe those that report i) no (26%), ii) only moderately (36%), iii) significant (38%) changes in behaviors. In these settings, we adopt machine learning algorithms to investigate the extent to which target variables can be predicted by looking only at the set of features. Notably, 66% of the samples in the category describing more significant changes in behaviors are correctly classified through Gradient Boosted Trees. Furthermore, we investigate the importance of each feature in the classification task and uncover complex relationships between individuals' characteristics and their attitude towards behavioral change. We find that intensity, recency of past illnesses, perceived susceptibility to and perceived severity of an infection are the most significant features in the classification task and are associated to significant changes in behaviors. Overall, the research contributes to the small set of empirical studies devoted to the data-driven characterization of behavioral changes induced by infectious diseases. Author summary: Human behavior and infectious diseases are linked by a feedback loop. While individuals might change their behavior as a response to an epidemic, such changes might influence the spreading itself. So far, our understanding and characterization of behavioral changes induced by diseases has been strongly limited by the lack of empirical data. As result, the vast majority of research has been focused on theoretical, what if, scenarios. In this work, we collected a unique dataset comprised of 599 surveys submitted by 434 users to the participatory surveillance platform Influweb over the 2017 − 18 and 2018 − 19 flu seasons. The data provide socio-demographic information, level of concerns about the flu, past experience with illnesses, and the type of self-initiated behavioral changes implemented by each participant. Our analysis, conducted adopting machine learning algorithms, show that both past experience of illness and personal beliefs about the disease are fundamental drivers of behavioral change. These findings are in good agreement with the constructs of the Health Belief Model and provide, to the best of our knowledge, the first data driven characterization of behavioral changes during the seasonal flu. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Since 2008 Italy has been the destination of the 'central Mediterranean route', used by migrants to reach Europe. The aim of this study is to describe demographic characteristics and health problems of migrants at the time of arrival on the Italian coasts, focussing on dermatological and infectious diseases. Methods Cross-sectional study of data routinely collected (n = 6, 188) by the National Institute for Health Migration and Poverty (INMP) in the centres for migrants of Lampedusa and Trapani-Milo (2015–16). Logistic models were performed to identify factors associated with scabies, varicella and the occurrence of two or more not related diagnosis. Results The average age was 21.6 years; 83.5% of the patients were males. The most frequent countries of origin were Eritrea, Nigeria, and Somalia. The most frequent diagnosis was scabies (58% of patients), skin infections, pediculosis and dermatitis; respiratory infections and varicella were the most represented infectious diseases. The diagnosis of scabies was more probable among Somalis (OR: 11.60) and Eritreans (OR: 10.05); the diagnosis of varicella was more probable among Ghanaians (OR: 13.58) and Nigerians (OR: 9.79). Somalis (OR: 4.10) and Eritreans (OR: 3.32) were the patients more likely to receive two or more diagnosis. Conclusions The majority of the diseases affecting migrants is in most cases, related to the migration experience and is likely not to represent a major threat for public health. Up-to-date information regarding the burden of diseases is needed in order to identify the health needs of incoming migrants and to arrange the appropriate response in terms of health services provision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at higher risk than the general population of contracting tuberculosis (TB). Moreover, although subjects with latent TB infection (LTBI) are asymptomatic and are not infectious, they may eventually develop active disease. Thus, a fundamental tool of TB control programs for HCWs is the screening and treatment of LTBI. Methods: From January 2014 to January 2015, hospital personnel at Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria, Naples, Italy, were screened for TB. To this end, a tuberculin skin test (TST) was administered as an initial examination, unless when contraindicated, in which case the QuantiFERON® TB-Gold (QFT) assay was performed. Moreover, QFT was carried out on all TST-positive cases to confirm the initial result. Results: Of 628 personnel asked to participate, 28 (4.5%) denied consent, 533 were administered TST as the baseline examination, and 67 were tested only with QFT. In the TST group, 73 (13.2%) individuals were found positive, 418 (78.4%) were negative, and 42 (7.9%) were absent for the reading window; QFT confirmed the result in 39 (53.4%) TST-positive individuals. In the QFT-only group, 44 (65.7%) individuals were found positive. All TST- and/or QFT-positive subjects were referred for chest X-ray and examination by an infectious diseases specialist. None were found to have active TB, and were thus diagnosed with LTBI. Conclusions: Although Italy is a low-incidence country regarding TB, our findings suggest that the prevalence of LTBI in HCWs may be relatively high. As a result, active screening for TB and LTBI is needed for these workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prisoners constitute a high-risk population, particularly for infectious diseases. The aim of this study was to estimate the level of infectious risk in the prisons of five different European countries by measuring to what extent the prison system adheres to WHO/UNODC recommendations.Methods: Following the methodology used in a previous French survey, a postal/electronic questionnaire was sent to all prisons in Austria, Belgium, Denmark and Italy to collect data on the availability of several recommended HIV-HCV prevention interventions and HBV vaccination for prisoners. A score was built to compare adherence to WHO/UNODC recommendations (considered a proxy of environmental infectious risk) in those 4 countries. It ranged from 0 (no adherence) to 12 (full adherence). A second score (0 to 9) was built to include data from a previous French survey, thereby creating a 5-country comparison.Results: A majority of prisons answered in Austria (100 %), France (66 %) and Denmark (58 %), half in Belgium (50 %) and few in Italy (17 %), representing 100, 74, 89, 47 and 23 % coverage of the prison populations, respectively. Availability of prevention measures was low, with median adherence scores ranging from 3.5 to 4.5 at the national level. These results were confirmed when using the second score which included France in the inter-country comparison. Overall, the adherence score was inversely associated with prison overpopulation rates (p = 0.08).Conclusions: Using a score of adherence to WHO/UNODC recommendations, the estimated environmental infectious risk remains extremely high in the prisons of the 5 European countries assessed. Public health strategies should be adjusted to comply with the principle of equivalence of care and prevention with the general community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective. The aim of this study was to develop and validate an algorithm to assist the attribution of neuropsychiatric (NP) events to underlying disease in SLE patients. Methods. Phase 1 identified and categorized candidate items to be included in the algorithm for the attribution of an NP event to SLE and their relative weights through a literature-informed consensus-driven process. Using a retrospective training cohort of SLE, phase 2 validated items selected in phase 1 and refined weights through a data-driven process, fitting items as independent variables and expert evaluation (clinical judgement) as reference standard in logistic models. Phase 3 consisted of a validation process using an external multicentre retrospective SLE cohort. Results. Phase 1 identified four different items: timing of the NP event, type of event, confounding factors and favouring factors. The training and validating cohorts included 228 and 221 patients, respectively. Each patient experienced at least one NP event characterized using the ACR case definition. In these samples, items selected in phase 1 showed good performance in discriminating patients with NPSLE: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve using dichotomous outcomes was 0.87 in the training set and 0.82 in the validating set. Relevant cut-offs of the validated score identify events with a positive predictive value of 100% (95% CI 93.2, 100) and 86.3% (95% CI 76.2, 93.2) in the training and validating cohorts, respectively. Conclusion. A new algorithm based on a probability score was developed and validated to determine the relationship between NP events and SLE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pigs play a key epidemiologic role in the ecology of influenza A viruses (IAVs) emerging from animal hosts and transmitted to humans. Between 2008 and 2010, we investigated the health risk of occupational exposure to swine influenza viruses (SIVs) in Italy, during the emergence and spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (H1N1pdm) virus. Methodology/Principal Findings: Serum samples from 123 swine workers (SWs) and 379 control subjects (Cs), not exposed to pig herds, were tested by haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay against selected SIVs belonging to H1N1 (swH1N1), H1N2 (swH1N2) and H3N2 (swH3N2) subtypes circulating in the study area. Potential cross-reactivity between swine and human IAVs was evaluated by testing sera against recent, pandemic and seasonal, human influenza viruses (H1N1 and H3N2 antigenic subtypes). Samples tested against swH1N1 and H1N1pdm viruses were categorized into sera collected before (n. 84 SWs; n. 234 Cs) and after (n. 39 SWs; n. 145 Cs) the pandemic peak. HI-antibody titers ≥10 were considered positive. In both pre-pandemic and post-pandemic peak subperiods, SWs showed significantly higher swH1N1 seroprevalences when compared with Cs (52.4% vs. 4.7% and 59% vs. 9.7%, respectively). Comparable HI results were obtained against H1N1pdm antigen (58.3% vs. 7.7% and 59% vs. 31.7%, respectively). No differences were found between HI seroreactivity detected in SWs and Cs against swH1N2 (33.3% vs. 40.4%) and swH3N2 (51.2 vs. 55.4%) viruses. These findings indicate the occurrence of swH1N1 transmission from pigs to Italian SWs. Conclusion/Significance: A significant increase of H1N1pdm seroprevalences occurred in the post-pandemic peak subperiod in the Cs (p<0.001) whereas SWs showed no differences between the two subperiods, suggesting a possible occurrence of cross-protective immunity related to previous swH1N1 infections. These data underline the importance of risk assessment and occupational health surveillance activities aimed at early detection and control of SIVs with pandemic potential in humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) surveillance systems have some pitfalls outside of a National Tuberculosis Program and lack of efficient surveillance hampers accurate epidemiological quantification of TB burden. In the present study we assessed the quality of surveillance at the University Hospital in Pisa (UHP), Italy, and TB incidence rates over a ten year period (1999-2008). Methods: Assessment of underreporting was done by record-linkage from two sources: databases of TB diagnoses performed in the UHP and the Italian Infectious Disease Surveillance (IIDS) system. Two different databases were examined: a) TB diagnoses reported in the Hospital Discharge Records (HDR) from three Units of UHP (Respiratory Pathophysiology, Pulmonology and Infectious Diseases Units) (TB database A); b) TB diagnoses reported in HDR of all Units of UHP plus TB positive cases obtained by the Laboratory Register (LR) of UHP (TB database B). For the TB database A, the accuracy of TB diagnosis in HDR was assessed by direct examination of the Clinical Record Forms of the cases. For the TB database B, clinical and population data were described, as well as the trend of incidence and underreporting over 10 yrs. Results: In the first study 293 patients were found: 80 patients (27%) with a confirmed TB diagnosis were underreported, 39 of them were microbiologically confirmed. Underreporting was related to age (Reported vs Non Reported, mean age: 49.27 ± 20 vs 55 ± 19, p<0.005 ), diagnosis (smear positive vs negative cases 18.7 vs 81.2%, p = 0.001), microbiological confirmation (49% vs 51%, p<0.05), X-ray findings (cavitary vs non-cavitary cases: 12.5 vs 87.5%, p = 0.001) but not to nationality. In the second study, 666 patients were found. Mean underreporting rate was 69.4% and decreased over time (68% in 1999, 48% in 2008). Newly diagnosed TB cases were also found to decrease in number whereas immigration rate increased. Underreporting was related to nationality (Immigrants vs Italians: 18% vs 68%, p<0.001), diagnosis (microbiological confirmation: 25% vs 75%, p<0.01), kind of hospital regimen (hospitalized patients vs Day Hospital: 70% vs 16%, p<0.001), and position of TB code in the HDR (TB code in first position vs in the following position: 39,5% vs 45% p<0.001). Conclusions: TB is underreported in Pisa, particularly in older patients and those without microbiological confirmation. The TB code in first position of HDR seems fairly accurate in confirming TB diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies. Methodology/Principal Findings: To identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively. Conclusions/Significance: MODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Molecular diagnosis using urine is established for many sexually transmitted diseases and is increasingly used to diagnose tumours and other infectious diseases. Storage of urine prior to analysis, whether due to home collection or bio-banking, is increasingly advocated yet no best practice has emerged. Here, we examined the stability of DNA in stored urine in two populations over 28 days. Methodology: Urine from 40 (20 male) healthy volunteers from two populations, Italy and Zambia, was stored at four different temperatures (RT, 4°C, -20°C & -20°C) with and without EDTA preservative solution. Urines were extracted at days 0, 1, 3, 7 and 28 after storage. Human DNA content was measured using multi-copy (ALU J) and single copy (TLR2) targets by quantitative real-time PCR. Zambian and Italian samples contained comparable DNA quantity at time zero. Generally, two trends were observed during storage; no degradation, or rapid degradation from days 0 to 7 followed by little further degradation to 28 days. The biphasic degradation was always observed in Zambia regardless of storage conditions, but only twice in Italy. Conclusion: Site-specific differences in urine composition significantly affect the stability of DNA during storage. Assessing the quality of stored urine for molecular analysis, by using the type of strategy described here, is paramount before these samples are used for molecular prognostic monitoring, genetic analyses and disease diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Individual-based models can provide the most reliable estimates of the spread of infectious diseases. In the present study, we evaluated the diffusion of pandemic influenza in Italy and the impact of various control measures, coupling a global SEIR model for importation of cases with an individual based model (IBM) describing the Italian epidemic. Methodology/Principal Findings: We co-located the Italian population (57 million inhabitants) to households, schools and workplaces and we assigned travel destinations to match the 2001 census data. We considered different R0 values (1.4; 1.7; 2), evaluating the impact of control measures (vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis -AVP-, international air travel restrictions and increased social distancing). The administration of two vaccine doses was considered, assuming that first dose would be administered 1-6 months after the first world case, and different values for vaccine effectiveness (VE). With no interventions, importation would occur 37-77 days after the first world case. Air travel restrictions would delay the importation of the pandemic by 7-37 days. With an R0 of 1.4 or 1.7, the use of combined measures would reduce clinical attack rates (AR) from 21-31% to 0.3-4%. Assuming an R0 of 2, the AR would decrease from 38% to 8%, yet only if vaccination were started within 2 months of the first world case, in combination with a 90% reduction in international air traffic, closure of schools/workplaces for 4 weeks and AVP of household and school/work close contacts of clinical cases. Varying VE would not substantially affect the results. Conclusions: This IBM, which is based on country-specific demographic data, could be suitable for the real-time evaluation of measures to be undertaken in the event of the emergence of a new pandemic influenza virus. All preventive measures considered should be implemented to mitigate the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The epidemiological importance of varicella and zoster and the availability of an efficacious and safe vaccine have led to an important international debate regarding the suitability of mass vaccination. The objective of the study was to describe the epidemiology of varicella and zoster in Italy and to determine whether there have been changes with respect to observations provided by an analogous study conducted 8 years ago, in order to define the most appropriate vaccination strategy. Methods: A number of data sources were evaluated, a cross-sectional population-based seroprevalence study was conducted on samples collected in 2004, and the results were compared with data obtained in 1996. Results: The data from active and passive surveillance systems confirm that varicella is a widespread infectious disease which mainly affects children. VZV seroprevalence did not substantially differ from that found in the previous study. The sero-epidemiological profile in Italy is different from that in other European countries. In particular, the percentage of susceptible adolescents is at least nearly twice as high as in other European countries and in the age group 20-39 yrs, approximately 9% of individuals are susceptible to VZV. Conclusion: The results of this study can contribute to evaluating the options for varicella vaccination. It is possible that in a few years, in all Italian Regions, there will exist the conditions necessary for implementing a mass vaccination campaign and that the large-scale availability of MMRV tetravalent vaccines will facilitate mass vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses trends in the historical research of the Black Death and how more scholars are looking into issues of biology and epidemiology. Physicians in Milan, Italy kept careful records of cases of plague beginning in 1451, calling them books of the dead in which entries were made until 1755. The author compares data collected from other plague and influenza epidemics to show how quickly the diseases spread and the likely causes for transmission of the infection.

Background: Immigration is increasing in Italy. In 2003, 2.6 million foreign citizens lived in the country; 52% were men and the majority were young adults who migrated for work. The purpose of this study was to investigate differences in hospitalisation between immigrants and the resident population during the year 2000 in the Lazio region. Methods: Hospital admissions of immigrants from Less Developed Countries were compared to those of residents. We measured differences in hospitalisation rates and proportions admitted. Results: Adult immigrants have lower hospitalisation rates than residents (134.6 vs. 160.5 per thousand population for acute care; 26.4 vs. 38.3 for day care). However, hospitalisation rates for some specific causes (injuries, particularly for men, infectious diseases, deliveries and induced abortions, ill-defined conditions) were higher for immigrants than for residents. Immigrants under 18 years seem to be generally healthy; causes of admission in this group are similar to those of residents of the same age (respiratory diseases, injuries and poisoning). The only important differences are for infectious and parasitic diseases, with a higher proportion among immigrant youths. Conclusion: The low hospitalisation rates for foreigners may suggest that they are a population with good health status. However, critical areas, related to poor living and working conditions and to social vulnerability, have been identified. Under-utilisation of services and low day care rates may be partially due to administrative, linguistic, and cultural barriers. As the presence of foreigners becomes an established phenomenon, it is important to evaluate their epidemiological profile, develop instruments to monitor and fulfil their specific health needs and plan health services for a multi-ethnic population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compared with the general population, incarcerated people have a higher prevalence of several communicable diseases, including viral hepatitis. Nevertheless, there is still a lack of literature in field. Our review aims to shed the actual knowledge on viral hepatitis among incarcerated people in Italy. We performed a comprehensive literature search, through key electronic databases (Scopus, Pubmed–MEDLINE) and search engines (Google Scholar), of peer-reviewed publications (articles and reviews), grey literature on viral hepatitis prevalence, and models proposed for active case finding and control strategies in prison settings. We found that viral hepatitis epidemiology drastically changed in the last five years, particularly on hepatitis C virus (HCV), reporting an HCV antibody (HCV-Ab) prevalence decrease from up to 38% to ˂20% in penitentiary institutes, as well as an even more important reduction in active infections. Probably, the availability of direct-acting antivirals is contributing to this scenario. However, there is a lack of data available regarding incarcerated women. For this reason, more tailored interventions are needed for this sub-population. Judiciary and regulatory bodies should be prompted to discuss and define specific regulations to optimize case active finding strategies, guarantee wide access to effective preventive and treatment options for viral hepatitis and enhance treatment management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advances in the epidemiological tracing of pathogen transmission have been largely driven by the increasing characterisation of whole-genome sequence data obtained at a finer resolution from infectious disease outbreaks. Dynamic models that integrate genomic and epidemiological data further enhance inference on the evolutionary history and transmission dynamics of epidemic outbreaks by reconstructing the network of 'who-infected-whom'. Swine Vesicular Disease (SVD) was present in Italy from 1966 until 2015, and since the mid-1990s, it has mainly been circulating within Italy's central-southern regions with sporadic incursions to the north of the country. However, a recrudescence of SVD in northern Italy was recorded between November 2006 and October 2007, leading to a large-scale epidemic that significantly affected the intensive pig industry of the Lombardy region. In this study, by using whole-genome sequence data in combination with epidemiological information on disease occurrences, we report a retrospective epidemiological investigation of the 2006–2007 SVD epidemic, providing new insights into the transmission dynamics and evolutionary mode of the two phases that characterised the epidemic event. Our analyses support evidence of undetected premises likely missed in the chain of observed infections, of which the role as the link between the two phases is reinforced by the tempo of SVD virus evolution. These silent transmissions, likely resulting from the gradual loss of a clear SVD clinical manifestation linked to sub-clinical infections, may pose a risk of failure in the early detection of new cases. This study emphasises the power of joint inference schemes based on genomic and epidemiological data integration to inform the transmission dynamics of disease epidemics, ultimately aimed at better disease control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a study that evaluated a computerized system for the surveillance of communicable diseases in Tuscany, Italy. Application of information science and technology to public health practice and disease prevention; Advantages of using software in collecting and reporting data.

Objectives. This study sought to describe the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) surveillance system in Lazio, Italy, and to analyze exposure patterns and time trends of HIV serodiagnoses from January 1985 to December 1994. Methods. A linkage procedure made it possible to identify newly diagnosed HIV cases. Anonymous information was collected on demographic and exposure factors for each individual. Results. Of 35 425 reports, 13 660 were newly diagnosed HIV cases, 70.9% of them in men. The proportion of women increased at the beginning of the study period (the male:female ratio declined from 3.5 in 1985 to 2.6 in 1986) and then remained stable. The proportion of subjects reporting heterosexual exposure, in men and women, respectively, increased from 1.5% and 2.0% in 1985 to 21.2% and 60.8% in 1994. Starting in 1992, heterosexual contact has become the main transmission route for women. Conclusions. A changing pattern in the HIV epidemic is emerging, with a shift in the incidence of HIV diagnosis from "core" high-risk groups (drug injectors) to the large low-risk population (the general population) exposed through heterosexual transmission. This is probably occurring in other areas (e.g., large urban centers in the United States) with a similar epidemiological situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Italian death rates and years of potential life lost (YPLL) for all causes and for 12 selected aggregations of causes are reported for 1979 and 1983, with the latter compared to United States data. Cancer is the leading cause of YPLL in Italy (23.8 per cent of total YPLL), followed by unintentional injuries (16.3 per cent) and heart disease (11.2 per cent). Rates of YPLL for all causes decreased 12.0 per cent from 1979 to 1983, the strongest declines in absolute terms being observed for prematurity and unintentional injuries, and in percentage decline for pneumonia and influenza, and infectious diseases; during the same period, YPLL for diabetes increased. The rates of YPLL are higher for males than for females (rate ratio = 1.9) especially for causes related to lifestyle factors. Premature mortality is lower in Italy than in the USA, because of the striking difference in mortality from injuries and heart diseases. (Am J Public Health 1988; 78:1202-1205.) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemics and mortality in 15th and 16th century Florence, Italy, were investigated by use of records of the government-sponsored Dowry Fund. These records contain the date of birth, date of investment, and date of dowry payment or death of 19.000 girls and women. Major epidemics ("plagues") occurred repeatedly. The most severe were in 1430. 1437-38, 1449-50. 147879, and 1527-31. Annual death rates of girls enrolled in the Dowry Fund increased by 5 to 10.I times in each of these periods. During the last period, at least 20-25 per cent of the population of Florence is likely to have died, Recurrent epidemics accounted for 38 per cent of the total mortality experienced by girls enrolled in the Dowry Fund. The frequency of serious epidemics diminished with the passage of time, and overall mortality declined by about 10 per cent over the 15th and 16th centuries. Epidemic mortality was not consistently related to age. The effects of epidemics were most severe in the summer and autumn. Non-epidemic mortality was also greater in the summer and autumn than in the winter and spring. (Am J Public Health 1985. 75:528-535.) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Two different mathematical models are proposed in order to describe the spreading of COVID-19 through the different provinces and regions of Spain and Italy. The models will divide the populations of both countries in three categories: the subpopulation susceptible to be infected of the disease, the subpopulation which is already infected and thus is infectious, and the subpopulation which has already recovered from the disease so is considered immune. The transmission rate is calculated within these models while considering the different locations and, more importantly, the lockdown measures implemented during 2020. The efficiency of these measures is compared between the areas of infection and the different levels of lockdown. Two discrete mathematical SIR models (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) are proposed for modelling the propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) through Spain and Italy. One of the proposed models is delay-free while the other one considers a delay in the propagation of the infection. The objective is to estimate the transmission, also known as infectivity rate, through time taking into account the infection evolution data supplied by the official health care systems in both countries. Such a parameter is estimated through time at different regional levels and it is seen to be strongly dependent on the intervention measures such as the total (except essential activities) or partial levels of lockdown. Typically, the infectivity rate evolves towards a minimum value under total lockdown and it increases again when the confinement measures are partially or totally removed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Swine vesicular disease (SVD) is a contagious viral disease of pigs clinically indistinguishable from other vesicular diseases, such as foot and mouth disease, vesicular stomatitis, vesicular exanthema of swine, and idiopathic vesicular disease. In Italy, where SVD was first reported in 1966, an eradication program started in 1995. The program, updated in 2008, was based on regionalization, complete control on pig movements, improvement of pig farms biosecurity, appropriate cleansing and disinfection procedures of vehicles approved for pig transportation, and a testing program using both serological and virological assays. In cases of confirmed SVD virus infection a stamping-out policy was applied. In the period 2009 to 2019, between 300,000 and 400,000 pigs were serologically tested each year. The last SVD outbreak was notified in 2015, and the last seropositive pig was detected in 2017. SVD surveillance is still ongoing and no proof of virus activity has been detected so far. All available data support the complete SVD virus eradication from the Italian pig industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leptospirosis is an infectious disease that causes serious illness in dogs. For this reason, epidemiological and clinical studies focusing on disease characterization are widely advocated. The aim of this study was to characterize the leptospires identified in dogs with confirmed symptomatic acute leptospirosis. Leptospira spp. DNA detected in urine, blood, or both samples from nine infected dogs was analyzed using the multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) technique. Leptospires from two dogs were successfully typed: one was identified as belonging to Sequence Type (ST) 17 and one to ST198, both within the L. interrogans species, serogroups Icterohaemorrhagiae and Australis, respectively. Based on the results of routine serologic tests, antibodies reactive toward these serogroups are commonly revealed in dogs in Italy. This study provides the first molecular analysis that identifies infecting Leptospira directly on DNA from biological samples of dogs, showing that serogroup Australis can lead to a severe clinical presentation of leptospirosis in infected dogs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]