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Urban heat island (UHI) and global warming effects will raise the ambient temperature of cities and increase building energy consumption. This paper discusses the residential cooling energy variations imposed by urban warming in the present and future. Data from a dynamically downscaled hourly meteorological model with a grid resolution of 5 km and for time slices 1979–2003, 2015–2039, and 2075–2099 were used for dynamic building energy simulation against a typical residential apartment in the central Taiwan region. The meteorological grids were classified as 4 city grids, 25 town grids, and 31 countryside grids based on their urban morphology attributes. The values from 20 countryside grids with lower average ambient temperatures during cooling seasons were selected as reference. The spatial and temporal distributions of the impact of indoor overheating risk and annual cooling energy consumption by UHI and global warming effects were quantified against the reference value. Furthermore, because the energy penalty can be used to rapidly estimate the urban warming impact on total cooling energy consumption of a given city, the linear correlation of the energy penalty and the magnitude of the UHI effect was also established and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change has been increasingly confirmed by weather observation and scientific literature in recent decades. Atmospheric stability, which has strong effects on vertical mixing of air pollutants and thus air quality, may be affected under climate change. This study aims to statistically assess the impacts of climate change alone on the future air quality in the Pearl River Delta region in the near future (2030–2039) and the far future (2090–2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, based on the future surface and upper level meteorological data projected by one regional climate model (RCM): WRF, and by four general circulation models (GCMs): CanESM2, MIROC, MRI-CGCM3 and MPI-ESM-LR. The arithmetic means of projections reveal an increase in the levels of air pollutants [ozone (O 3), respirable suspended particulates (RSP) and sulphur dioxide (SO 2)] in various seasons, even though a decrease is projected to occur in June-July-August. These changes in projected mean concentration are more significant in the far future, and under the RCP8.5 scenario. Among difference meteorological variables, surface temperature is most associated with the projected change in the three pollutants, with a range from 56.9% to 65.2% in all seasons and for all pollutants, relative to all contributions in RCP8.5 for example. Other notable associations include positive effects of vertical temperature gradient and the temperature–dew point difference on pollutant concentration. We found an increase in frequency of high pollution levels in December–January–February and March–April–May, as the occurrence proportion of pollutant concentration greater than the recent 95th percentile is 9.5%–9.6% and 6.4%–9.2%, respectively. We conclude that climate change alone is projected to have significant effect on air quality in the Pearl River Delta region in future, implying the necessity of more stringent air pollutant emission control policies to mitigate air pollution in the future. Highlights • We estimated the sole impact of climate change on air quality through vertical atmospheric conditions over the PRD region. • We projected a rise of mean pollutant concentration in MAM and DJF for all scenarios, but a tendency to decline in JJA. • High pollution conditions are projected a more frequent occurrence in DJF for all scenarios and species. • Besides surface temperature, other meteorological variables contribute evenly along heights to the future air quality change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air pollution is an increasingly concerning problem in many metropolitan areas due to its adverse public health and environmental impacts. Vertical atmospheric conditions have strong effects on vertical mixing of air pollutants, which directly affects surface air quality. The characteristics and magnitude of how vertical atmospheric conditions affect surface air quality, which are critical to future air quality projections, have not yet been fully understood. This study aims to enhance understanding of the annual and seasonal sensitivities of air pollution to both surface and vertical atmospheric conditions. Based on both surface and vertical meteorological characteristics provided by 1994–2003 monthly dynamic downscaling data from the Weather and Research Forecast Model, we develop generalized linear models (GLMs) to study the relationships between surface air pollutants (ozone, respirable suspended particulates, and sulfur dioxide) and atmospheric conditions in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. Applying Principal Component Regression (PCR) to address multi-collinearity, we study the contributions of various meteorological variables to pollutants’ concentration levels based on the loading and model coefficient of major principal components. Our results show that relatively high pollutant concentration occurs under relatively low mid-level troposphere temperature gradients, low relative humidity, weak southerly wind (or strong northerly wind) and weak westerly wind (or strong easterly wind). Moreover, the correlations vary among pollutant species, seasons, and meteorological variables at various altitudes. In general, pollutant sensitivity to meteorological variables is found to be greater in winter than in other seasons, and the sensitivity of ozone to meteorology differs from that of the other two pollutants. Applying our GLMs to anomalous air pollution episodes, we find that meteorological variables up to mid troposphere (∼700 mb) play an important role in influencing surface air quality, pinpointing the significant and unique associations between meteorological variables at higher altitudes and surface air quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • The Budyko framework was applied to 75 catchments covering a large area of Taiwan. • Varied landscape effects determined water resources availability among catchments. • Considerable spatial variability in the Budyko-related variables were found. • Three clusters were identified based on catchments' movements in the Budyko space. • 64 catchments will face the reduced availability of future water resources. Assessing water resources availability in a changing climate is a determinant of promoting sustainable development in a region. Such assessment should better be inter-basin in order to unveil a region's overall risk, so a time-varying Budyko framework is developed and adopted in this study. Gauge-based gridded precipitation and temperature, in company with runoff data, were used to derive the Budyko curves for 75 catchments over Taiwan. Downscaled precipitation and temperature data from selected global climate models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were then used to calculate the shifts in the Budyko space of each catchment. It was found that the Budyko-related variables (e.g., evaporative and aridity indices, and catchment-specific parameter) exhibited considerable variability island-wide, with a few outliers in certain catchments being modulated by distinct landscape features and/or human activities. Under all RCPs analyzed, the majority of catchments showed the magnified movement vectors pointing at the 1st quadrant in the Budyko space in the late-21st century, suggesting a predominant and aggravating drying trend over Taiwan. Cluster analysis of the movement vectors under RCP8.5, which entailed the least inter-model differences, identified three major clusters, two of which (64 catchments included) indicated a drying trend of varied significancy. According to our findings, without effective mitigation of climate change, an increased likelihood of the worst-case scenario will substantialize the reduced availability of Taiwan's water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]