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Much of the research on implications of the HIV epidemic for individual households and broader rural economies in the 1980s and early 1990s predicted progressive declines in agricultural production, with dire consequences for rural livelihoods. Restudies in Tanzania and Uganda show that from 1986 to the present, HIV and AIDS have sometimes thrown households into disarray and poverty, but more often have reduced development. The progressive and systematic decline predicted in earlier work has not come to pass. However, poverty remains, as does endemic HIV disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A response by Tony Barnett, Stefan Dercon and Janet Seeley to a letter to the editor about their article "The effects of HIV/AIDS on Rural Communities in East Africa: A Twenty Year Perspective," published in an earlier issue is presented.