Search

Aim: As climate change increases the frequency and severity of droughts in many regions, conservation during drought is becoming a major challenge for ecologists. Droughts are multidimensional climate events whose impacts may be moderated by changes in temperature, water availability or food availability, or some combination of these. Simultaneously, other stressors such as extensive anthropogenic landscape modification may synergize with drought. Useful observational models for guiding conservation decision‐making during drought require multidimensional, dynamic representations to disentangle possible drought impacts, and consequently, they will require large, highly resolved data sets. In this paper, we develop a two‐stage predictive framework for assessing how drought impacts vary with species, habitats and climate pathways. Location: Central Valley, California, USA. Methods: We used a two‐stage counterfactual analysis combining predictive linear mixed models and N‐mixture models to characterize the multidimensional impacts of drought on 66 bird species. We analysed counts from the eBird participatory science data set between 2010 and 2019 and produced species‐ and habitat‐specific estimates of the impact of drought on relative abundance. Results: We found that while fewer than a quarter (16/66) of species experienced abundance declines during drought, nearly half of all species (27/66) changed their habitat associations during drought. Among species that shifted their habitat associations, the use of natural habitats declined during drought while use of developed habitat and perennial agricultural habitat increased. Main Conclusions: Our findings suggest that birds take advantage of agricultural and developed land with artificial irrigation and heat‐buffering microhabitat structure, such as in orchards or parks, to buffer drought impacts. A working lands approach that promotes biodiversity and mitigates stressors across a human‐induced water gradient will be critical for conserving birds during drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China is the prominent area for agricultural production, but it is also the most typical ecological fragile area with frequent drought disasters. Taking Yulin City at Shaanxi Province in China as the case area, the paper aims to investigate the spatio-temporal changes of agricultural vulnerability to drought in China's agro-pastoral ecotone in the period 2000 to 2020. The results show that: 1) the agricultural vulnerability to drought in Yulin City has shifted from high vulnerability in the period 2000–2010 to low vulnerability in the period 2011–2020. 2) There exist obvious spatio-temporal differences of the agricultural vulnerability to drought in Yulin City during the research period. 3) Four sensitive events and 14 resilient events were identified in the research and the crops of Yulin had become more resilient to drought. Finally, the paper put forward with policy implications to make adaptive strategies of agriculture to climate change in China's agro-pastoral ecotone in the future, e.g., carrying out agricultural zoning based on agricultural production conditions, intensifying the construction of disaster prevention and relief system, and integrating with modern agricultural technology to develop new type agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural populations are particularly exposed to increasing weather variability, notably through agriculture. In this paper, we exploit longitudinal data for Turkish provinces from 2008 to 2018 together with precipitation records over more than 30 years to quantify how variability in a standardized precipitation index (SPI) affects out-migration as an adaptation mechanism. Doing so, we document the role of three potential causal channels: per capita income, agricultural output, and local conflicts. Our results show that negative SPI shocks (droughts) are associated with higher out-migration in rural provinces. A mediated-moderator approach further suggests that changes in per capita income account for more than one quarter of the direct effect of droughts on out-migration, whereas agricultural output is only relevant for provinces in the upper quartile of crop production. Finally, we find evidence that local conflict fatalities increase with drought and trigger out-migration, although this channel is distinct from the direct effect of SPI shocks on out-migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Albanian agriculture sector is deeply affected by climate change. To cope with climate change, it is necessary to understand its consequences. The views of agriculture extension service experts are crucial in improving farmers' understanding and resilience, especially when farming practices are poorly adapted to the changing climate. This paper analyses the risks from climate change and the adaptive capacity of farmers based on an expert evaluation survey. The respondents identified prolongation of drought durations, rising temperatures, above-average occurrences of floods, pre-seasonal rainfall and frost as primary risks during recent years. Extension experts view a high (negative) impact from climate change through processes such as increased plant diseases occurrence, increased exposure to rodents, harmful insects and pests for plants and livestock, as well as forest and pasture degradation. The paper also provides experts' opinions on the policy implications, such as considerations about adaptation strategies towards climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan is among the countries that are highly vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced severe floods and droughts during recent decades. The agricultural sector in Pakistan is adversely affected by climate change. This systematic review paper set out to analyze the existing literature on adaptation measures at the farm level toward climate change in Pakistan. Adopting a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method, a total of 62 articles were identified from the Web of Science and Scopus databases. The review paper indicates that the main adaptation strategies adopted by farmers are as follows: changing cropping practices, changing farm management techniques, advanced land use management practices, and nonagriculture livelihood options. Further, this review shows the factors influencing the farmer's adaptation measures to climate change. Influencing factors were examined and classified into three groups: demographic, socioeconomic, and resources and institutional. Barriers hindering farmers' adaptive capacity were identified as lack of access to information and knowledge, lack of access to extension services, lack of access to credit facility, and lack of farm resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite being the most tangibly impacted by the first-order effects of a warming climate, much of Australia's agricultural regions have remained relatively conservative in their views on climate change and the need for adaptation. This paper aims to understand how the experience of an extreme climate event like the 2017–2020 drought might shift opinions and values on these issues within agricultural communities. Through in-depth interviews with 20 graziers across Northwest NSW during the worst days of the drought, we found that various psychological lock-ins, historical memories of resilience, and local cultural values appeared to be undermining the perception of their vulnerability, while enhancing perceptions of their ability to endure. Such discursive constructions appear to explain why a jarring climatic event like the 2017–2020 drought was failing to produce a noticeable shift in their views. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological drought (MDr) causes considerable economic losses in many countries, including in relation to agriculture. To examine the diversity of seasonal meteorological drought in Poland, the study uses monthly precipitation sums in the period from March to November, collected from 74 ground-based meteorological stations in 1951–2020. The paper defines meteorological drought on the basis of the standardized precipitation index in three seasons (SPI-3) and differentiates three degrees of drought intensity: extreme, severe and moderate. The study also calculates the size of Poland's area affected by meteorological drought (AAMDr) and determines the relationship between AAMDr and SPI-3. MDr in Poland occurred more frequently in spring and autumn (every 4–5 years) than in summer (every 7 years). In the areas affected by extreme drought, precipitation was below the average, mainly ≤50% of the climatic norm, and air temperature values were below or above the average of the climatic norm, mainly ranging from −1.0 to 1.0 °C. A significant negative correlation between AAMDr and SPI-3 indices was found. The obtained results could be useful for managing climatic risk and developing regional and local agriculture adaptation plans aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assessed the determinants of the strategies adopted by the arable crop farmers in coping with climate change in Osun state, Nigeria. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 120 arable crop farmers as samples for the study. Data for the study were collected with a structured interview schedule. Data were analysed with descriptive and inferential statistical tools; frequency distributions, means, standard deviation, percentages, and Pearson's Product Moment Correlation (PPMC). Descriptive results reveal that most (87.5%) of the sampled farmers were male, and married (63.00%). The average age, household size, and years of formal education were 53.6 years, 10.15 persons, and 5.20 years respectively. Perceived significant variables influencing climate change were fluctuating rainfall patterns and extreme temperature with weighted mean scores (WMS) of 4.55 and 4.47 respectively. The major climate change adaptation strategy and constraint to adaptation were late or early planting, and unavailability of capital with WMS scores of 4.54 and 2.80 respectively. Significant factors influencing climate change adaptation strategies were age, household size, years of formal education, and farming experience. The study concluded that farmers were aware of the effects of climate change and have adopted coping strategies, especially planting their crops early or late in line with emerging rainfall patterns. Thus, extension services must be tailored towards awareness and adoption of improved agronomy practices and planting materials, especially early maturing and drought-resistant varieties of crops that would mitigate climate change effects on crop productivity. Also, farmers should be encouraged to insure their crops against failure due to the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of droughts are expected to increase. To improve resilience to droughts, proactive drought management is essential. Economic assessments are typically included to decide on the drought risk-reducing investments to make. The choice of both methods and scope of economic assessments influences the outcome, and thus the investment choice. This paper aims to identify how comprehensively economic assessments are applied in practice. Through a systematic literature review, 14 actual economic assessments are identified and their methods are evaluated based on seven criteria for economic assessments as derived from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The results show that in practice, economic assessments rarely address all criteria. Applying a limited number of criteria reduces the scope and narrows the approach, possibly leading to the underestimation of drought risk reduction approaches' related benefits. Applying the seven criteria in practice will improve the results of economic assessments of drought risk reduction measures, allowing for optimal investment selection. Based on the different criteria, a Framework for Economic Assessments of Drought Risk-Reducing Applications (FEADRRA) is proposed. Applying the criteria of the framework can support decision-makers in drought risk management and in carrying out the most fitting drought interventions. • Criteria of the economics of climate change rarely translate into practice. • Limited criteria included can underestimate risk-reducing measures' attractiveness. • A framework for the economic assessment of drought mitigation measures is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Droughts and floods are increasing worldwide. • Changes in soil moisture affect the soil microbiome. • Climate change affects the soil environment. • Changes in the soil environment affect crop production. • Drought and floods have a negative impact on agriculture. Climate change is progressing and is already visible to the naked eye around the world. Hydrological events associated with climate change, i.e. floods and droughts, have reached extreme levels in recent years. Researchers warn that these phenomena will continue to intensify. According to recent reports, the number of extreme weather events, including hydrological phenomena, has increased by 60% in Europe over the last three decades. Both water shortages and water surpluses affect the soil environment and its functions. This in turn has a direct impact on crops and agriculture. For example, in the US alone, droughts and floods were responsible for more than 70% of the decline in cereal yields in 2011 alone. However, the soil environment is a complex ecosystem that is not yet fully understood, making it difficult to predict the impact of climate change on its quality and functioning. In this paper, we discuss the effects of floods and droughts on the soil microbiome and the implications of these changes for agriculture. We suggest that changes in soil moisture are an important factor affecting crop growth and yield, which is of great importance for global food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the environmental and economic impacts of drought have been widely studied, few large‐scale studies have examined the broader social impacts of drought. To fill this knowledge gap, the Australian Institute of Family Studies undertook the Regional and Rural Families Survey in 2007, when a significant part of Australia was experiencing a severe drought. This paper analyses that survey to measure the extent to which drought affects a range of economic, health and social outcomes. Drought is found to have a substantial negative economic and health impact on farmers and others employed in the agricultural sector. There is some evidence that groups that are not employed in agriculture are adversely affected, with a widespread loss of services in drought‐affected areas and some marginal labour market groups (e.g. carers) experiencing poor employment outcomes in a drought‐affected local economy. Policymakers need to take these impacts into account in designing effective responses to future droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Drought propagation time increased with decreasing precipitation. • Climate change is the main driver of agricultural drought. • Precipitation was the main driver of human activities. • Prolonged drought propagation time reduced winter wheat NPP. • The sensitivity of winter wheat NPP to agricultural drought is higher in humid area. Drought is a major natural disaster worldwide. Understanding the correlation between meteorological drought (MD) and agricultural drought (AD) is essential for relevant policymaking. In this paper, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and standardized soil moisture index were used to estimate the MD and AD in the North China Plain (NCP) to identify the correlation between MD and AD during the growth period of winter wheat. In addition, we investigated the contributions of climate change (CC) and human activity (HA) to AD and the factors influencing the loss of winter wheat net primary production (NPP). Drought propagation time (PT) increased spatially from the southern to northern NCP (from 3 to 11 months). PT first increased and then decreased during the phenological period of winter wheat, and the decreasing trend was delayed with an increasing latitude. In general, the relative contribution of CC to AD was higher than that of HA; the correlation between MD and AD exhibited a weakening trend, particularly during the middle and late phenological stages of winter wheat. Precipitation was the main driver of the effects of HA on AD; the effects were stronger in areas with less precipitation. However, because of the improved irrigation conditions and scarce rainfall during the growth period of winter wheat in the study area, the effects of precipitation on AD were nonsignificant. Instead, temperature, wind, and total solar radiation, which are highly correlated with evapotranspiration, were identified as the primary drivers of AD; spatiotemporal variations were noted in these correlations. Prolonged drought PT reduced NPP; the sensitivity of winter wheat NPP to AD was higher in humid areas than in semiarid or semihumid areas. NPP loss occurred primarily due to HA. Our findings revealed a correlation between MD and AD in agroecosystems and may facilitate policymaking related to drought mitigation and food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the effects of global climate change is increase in the frequency and severity of drought, which strongly affects the Chinese agricultural production. In order to cope these changes more effectively, it is important to document and analyze the agricultural losses caused by drought. We collected and analyzed conventional meteorological data and agricultural statistics data, in order to outline trends in drought occurrence and decline in agricultural yield. Data were assembled for the period 1960-2010. The study pays particular attention to regional differences between northern and southern China. Our results show the drought-caused agricultural loss rates (DCALR) in China have increased by approximately 0.5% per decade in the past 50 years. The study area in this paper is for the whole of the People's Republic of China, minus the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; when we analyzed regional differences, we found that losses increased by approximately 0.6% per decade in northern China, close to twice the increase in southern China. Moreover, drought risks and agricultural losses are rising faster in northern China. Our results also indicate that the agriculture in northern China is more sensitive to changes in precipitation, whereas the agriculture in southern China is more sensitive to temperature changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper in three parts, climate change is approached by dealing with the three sides from which the danger comes: (i) global warming, (ii) increasing climate variability, (iii) more (and possibly more severe) meteorological and climatological extreme events. These are the three panels of this triptych review and the right panel on climate extremes and society's responses, including mitigation attempts as part of preparedness of African farmers, is this part. The occurrence of more (and possibly more severe) extreme meteorological/climatological events, as another likely consequence of climate change, is discussed, reviewing the literature and dealing for Africa with recent droughts and famines. It appears that there is more than sufficient proof that the numbers of disasters have risen globally, and on average at an increasing rate, over the last half a century, with more evidence in the later decades. Extreme hazards have a shorter recurrence time but whether they also have become more severe cannot be easily determined. This is due to developments in observations, populations and vulnerabilities and lack of developments in climate models. Only for increased temperature related disasters, severity has clearly become larger. However, recent more realistic calculations appear to suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. In physical terms, there is also little or no evidence of increased severity of floods over the past century. Increasing farmer preparedness will be an important part of better responses to these conditions. The traditional response farming as to droughts, floods (annual recession and recurrent occasional ones), strong winds and other serious disasters should be among starting points. At the end of this paper, the contributions that tropical agriculture can make to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) in win-win situations are also dealt with. Soil carbon sequestration has a higher mitigation potential than emission reductions in African agriculture, although both may be important. These are best achieved under management systems with higher carbon density, as well as improved soil conservation. Agroforestry, assisted natural regeneration, forest rehabilitation, forest gardens, and improved forest fallow projects should all be eligible under the Clean Development Mechanism. Throughout the paper text boxes are used that illustrate local conditions that must be taken into account to understand the impacts/consequences of climate change for African farmers and how they may cope with them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various studies have been performed on drought hazard assessment at the national or regional scales, but few studies to date at the global scale, especially on global agriculture. In this paper, we utilized an agricultural drought hazard index (DHI), based on both drought severity and drought occurrence rate, derived from 3-month scale Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the phenology data of main crops (rice, maize, wheat, barley, sorghum and soybean) to assess the agricultural drought hazard grades of the world during 1980-2008. The results indicated that area percentages of high and very high agricultural drought hazard zones were approximately 23.57 and 27.19% of the total agricultural area in the world. Moreover, those zones mostly were distributed in central United States, southeastern South America, most of Europe, southwestern Russia, both southern Congo and Nigeria, east-central and southwest China, Southeast Asia and eastern Australia, and most of those areas were also located in semi-humid or humid climate zones. In addition, some regions above were also found to be the very high agricultural drought hazard zones for the main crops: East-central and southwest China for wheat, maize, rice and soybean; Europe for wheat, maize and barley; Southeast Asia for rice; both central United States and southeastern South America for wheat, maize, soybean and sorghum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk assessment of drought disaster is necessary for the sustained agriculture development under the background of global climate change, and, meanwhile, it is an urgent scientific issue needed to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline. In this paper, collecting the areas covered by drought disasters, areas affected by drought disasters, areas with no harvest by drought disasters, areas planted, and yield per unit area data, agricultural drought disasters losses of the southern five provinces in China were calculated. The best probability density function was obtained according to the goodness of fit test results. Then, the value at risk (VaR) from financial market risk research method was used to the effective measure of agricultural drought risk. The results show that, in southern five provinces of our research region, risk of agricultural drought disaster in Yunnan and Guizhou is greater than other three provinces. In the scenario of 50 years and 100 years for a return, the crop loss caused by drought will reach 13.6% and 17.4% in Yunnan province, and the crop loss will be more serious in Guizhou province and be up to 15.3% and 18.1%. The above results can provide multifaceted information about drought risk that can help to guide management of drought disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of research on possible climate change in Bosnia and Herzegovina according to the climate scenario RCP8.5 and its potential impact on fruit production. Climate change analyses are based on expected fluctuations in air temperature, precipitation and climate indices. The results indicate pronounced climate change, which refers to an increase in annual temperature to 5 °C, and a decrease in annual precipitation of up to 30% and in the summer season (June, July, and August) and up to 40% by the end of the XXI century. In addition, an increase in the number of summer days and a decrease in the number of days with the appearance of snow can be expected. Reducing the number of days with snow and snow cover can cause a decrease in underground aquifers with water during the winter and spring seasons. These changes can have a serious impact on the problem of drought and water deficit, which can have direct consequences for the agricultural sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially for fruit production. These findings show that fundamental changes in agriculture and an approach to land treatment and water resources management, as well as fruit production planning in changed climatic conditions, are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]