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New Zealand's space sector is at the early stages of growth but already attracts 1.5% of global private investment in space and contributes NZD 1.75 billion per year in revenue to the national economy. Growth has in part been due to the country's desirable location for space operations due to a combination of geographic advantages, with its clear seas and skies and access to a wide range of launch angles, a skilled workforce, and strong government financial incentives. There are however challenges to future space activities such as the risk to long-term access and use of Earth's orbital environment, specifically from space debris and a growing challenge to the whole-of-life of space operations, from the climate emergency and biodiversity crises. Consequently, there is increasing global motivation and urgency to quantify environmental consequences of space activities, which have historically been omitted from legislative and regulatory requirements. This paper provides a summary of the commercial development of New Zealand's space sector and where appropriate environmental regulation and legislation may have been overlooked, as well as outlining broader environmental concerns of space operations. New Zealand's emerging space industry offers a unique opportunity to integrate international best practices for environment and sustainability at a foundational level, for example, the European Space Agency's Clean Space Initiative and their Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Tool and Eco-design Framework. These types of tools provide valuable sources of information to support policy and business decisions. This paper provides a case study for an environmental LCA for a New Zealand designed and launched CubeSat which is the most launched satellite type from New Zealand. The case study indicates how the LCA can be used to identify environmental hotspots during the preliminary and detailed design phases as well as the launch event. Barriers and gaps in data collection have also been identified. As a result of this work, a set of recommendations have been made for further research requirements on the application of LCA to space activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we present novel evidence about heterogeneity in climate beliefs using a large-scale survey of farmers, foresters, growers, and lifestyle block owners in New Zealand. Using a flexible, conditional-moments approach, we estimate the interpersonal dispersion in climate change beliefs conditional on individual characteristics, which provides a direct measure of the heterogeneity in beliefs about climate change. Our results show that women, younger respondents, farmers with less family farming history, higher educated respondents, and those respondents who are less trusting in social media are more likely to believe in climate change. Further, beliefs are more heterogeneous among males (young and old), the less educated, and those who trust social media. Our results offer new insights allowing governments and NGOs to design and communicate policies to reduce the heterogeneity in climate change beliefs, which should support the uptake of climate change actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: It is widely accepted that climate change is a rapidly increasing threat to the aquaculture industry, with the biggest issue being a slow but continuous rise in water temperature and an associated decrease in dissolved oxygen in some areas. In New Zealand fish farms, during the hottest period of the year (January/February), increased water temperatures have been shown to be detrimental to Chinook salmon performance and are associated with mortalities. We report on the responses of Chinook salmon to a chronic, long-term increase in temperature and decrease in oxygen over a three-month period. We also identified, characterised, and developed relevant biomarkers for Chinook salmon and applied them to monitor responses to changes in the fish's environment. This paper provides evidence on how the use of molecular tools, alongside general health and haematological parameters, have the potential to better inform the aquaculture industry of stock health status, thereby enhancing resilience, efficiency, and productivity. In New Zealand, during the hottest periods of the year, some salmon farms in the Marlborough Sounds reach water temperatures above the optimal range for Chinook salmon. High levels of mortality are recorded during these periods, emphasising the importance of understanding thermal stress in this species. In this study, the responses of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) to chronic, long-term changes in temperature and dissolved oxygen were investigated. This is a unique investigation due to the duration of the stress events the fish were exposed to. Health and haematological parameters were analysed alongside gene expression results to determine the effects of thermal stress on Chinook salmon. Six copies of heat shock protein 90 (HSP90) were discovered and characterised: HSP90AA1.1a, HSP90AA1.2a, HSP90AA1.1b, HSP90AA1.2b, HSP90AB1a and HSP90AB1b, as well as two copies of SOD1, named SOD1a and SOD1b. The amino acid sequences contained features similar to those found in other vertebrate HSP90 and SOD1 sequences, and the phylogenetic tree and synteny analysis provided conclusive evidence of their relationship to other vertebrate HSP90 and SOD1 genes. Primers were designed for qPCR to enable the expression of all copies of HSP90 and SOD1 to be analysed. The expression studies showed that HSP90 and SOD1 were downregulated in the liver and spleen in response to longer term exposure to high temperatures and lower dissolved oxygen. HSP90 was also downregulated in the gill; however, the results for SOD1 expression in the gill were not conclusive. This study provides important insights into the physiological and genetic responses of Chinook salmon to temperature and oxygen stress, which are critical for developing sustainable fish aquaculture in an era of changing global climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the current state of knowledge of the Aotearoa New Zealand last interglacial (marine isotope stage 5, MIS 5, sensu lato) sea-level record compiled within the framework of the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS) database. A total of 77 relative sea-level (RSL) indicators (direct, marine-limiting, and terrestrial-limiting points), commonly in association with marine terraces, were identified from over 120 studies reviewed. Extensive coastal deformation around New Zealand has prompted research focused on active tectonics, the scale of which overprints the sea-level record in most regions. The ranges of last interglacial palaeo-shoreline elevations are significant on both the North Island (276.8 ± 10.0 to - 94.2 ± 10.6 ma.m.s.l. , above mean sea level) and South Island (165.8 ± 2.0 to - 70.0 ± 10.3 ma.m.s.l.) and have been used to estimate rates of vertical land movement; however, in many instances there is a lack of adequate description and age constraint for high-quality RSL indicators. Identified RSL indicators are correlated with MIS 5, MIS 5e, MIS 5c, and MIS 5a and indicate the potential for the New Zealand sea-level record to inform sea-level fluctuation and climatic change within MIS 5. The Northland Region of the North Island and southeastern South Island, historically considered stable, have the potential to provide a regional sea-level curve, minimally impacted by glacio- and hydro-isostatic adjustment (GIA) and reflecting near-eustatic fluctuations in a remote location of the South Pacific, across broad degrees of latitude; however, additional records from these regions are needed. Future work requires modern analogue information, heights above a defined sea-level datum, better stratigraphic descriptions, and use of improved geochronological methods. The database presented in this study is available open access at this link: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4590188 (Ryan et al., 2020a). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bactericera cockerelli Sulc, the potato / tomato psyllid (Solanum tuberosum and S. lycopersicum), is recognized as a threat to the production of solanaceous crops because it is an efficient vector of the bacterium Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum (CaLso) in the American continent, Europe, and New Zealand. The biological and genetic characteristics of the insect make its management difficult, and so do the high number of host, refuge. and feeding plants in which it can be found. Furthermore, the influence of climate change has caused psyllid populations to establish and colonize new areas and countries. At present, the psyllid vectors of microorganisms that cause diseases in plants are widely distributed, and studies are being carried out to understand the impact of their populations on intensive agricultural production systems. In the last decade, studies on the application of new biological control and management techniques have also increased aiming to count on fast and efficient alternatives for reducing the effects on crops and economy. A total of 74 scientific papers related to the host plants of these insect vectors, their biological and chemical control strategies, and the novel alternatives for their management were analysed. In order to maintain surveillance over the vector, the present status of the identification of these species in Cuba, the situation concerning the presence of the cultivation system. -psilid-CaLso in the world and the American and Caribbean regions, as well as the possible implications of the presence of these species for the Cuban agriculture were studied in depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global food security could be threatened in the coming years by the emergence and spread of emerging pests in crops. Psyllids are considered as possible destructive pests due to their relationships with some important plant pathogens. Bactericera cockerelli Sulc (Hemiptera: Triozidae) is recognized as an efficient vector of the bacterium Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum (CaLsol), an invasive pest according to the EPPO, which causes diseases in potatoes, tomatoes, peppers, and other solanaceous and some apiaceous crops. Known the vector-bacteria complex to be present in different countries of the world belonging to the American continent, Europe and New Zealand, 61 scientific papers related to this topic were reviewed. Changes in the climatic variables, the biological distribution of this insect-vector system, the high ecological plasticity that allows this insect to develop different biotypes, depending on the characteristics of the area where it develops, could complicate the control of the insect-pathogen system. These characteristics make necessary a maintained extreme surveillance in those countries where it is not yet present. So far, the bacterium and the vector are not present in Cuba; however, its proximity to countries where it is present, the existence of optimal climatic conditions host plants, and the increasing tourism and international trade, make necessary to offer updated information on this disease, the causal agents and their vectors as a contribution to the preparation of the scientific-technical-productive personnel and other decission makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the current paper is to evaluate spatial and temporal characteristics of the distribution of bioclimatic comfort within the Arkhangelsk region (Russian Federation) with two modern indices of thermal comfort: PET and UTCI. Its average values calculated for the modern climatic period (1981-2010) in the monthly mean give a clear picture of spatial heterogeneity for the warmest month (July) and for the coldest one (January). The spatial picture of both indices in July allows us to distinguish three large internal regions: the Arkhangelsk province, the continental part of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (NAO) and Novaya Zemlya islands (NZ). Winter distribution of thermal discomfort is fundamentally different: the coldest regions (with extreme cold stress) are equally NZ and the eastern half of NAO; intermediate position is occupied by the west of the NAO and the extreme north-east of the Arkhangelsk region, the highest winter UTCI values are observed in the rest of the region. In Archangelsk-city extreme cold stress in January has repeatability 6.7%, in February - 4%, in December - 2.2%, respectively. The average number of time points during the year at which thermal stress is not observed is only 19%. Obtained results will be the basis for planning relevant health measures and providing reliable forecasts of the effects of climate change in the Arctic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the New Zealand landscape, the mahika kai sites (resource gathering areas) are marked through place names, which act as central reference points (whai take) for a wider ecosystem catchment area and indicate changes over time. The traditional ecological knowledge, awakened through place names, informs and influences the way Māori realise cultural, social, environmental, and economic aspirations and practices (past and present). This paper will draw from a research project in Te Wai Pounamu (South Island), New Zealand that utilises traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) surrounding the place name, Matainaka, which indicate places where Kāi Tahu (South Island Māori tribal group) gathered whitebait (īnaka, Galaxias maculatus): an important fresh water species. A major focus of the research project is the knowledge around socio-cultural tipping points that will impact directly on the future cultural, social and economic sustainability within a specific catchment location, the Waikōuaiti River. The river has spawning and fishing sites for the īnaka mahika kai and comes under the mana whenua (recognised traditional authority) of the Māori tribal group, Kāti Huirapa Rūnaka ki Puketeraki. Traditional ecological knowledge kōrero (speech) explains the importance of Matainaka and its contribution to the surrounding catchment area, and - in contemporary times - works alongside that of scientific knowledge. The project merged TEK and science to find ways to improve future planning and adaptation for habitat restoration and modification, and to lessen impacts on īnaka spawning sites from the expected impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This special issue reviews the state of biodiversity conservation in New Zealand, following the establishment of the Department of Conservation (DOC) in 1987. Here we summarise events that led to the formation of DOC, and the unprecedented series of changes in how biodiversity conservation has been viewed and conducted. Subsequent papers in this issue outline the successes, failures and key technological shifts in biodiversity conservation in New Zealand in the past 30 years; how visionary people and institutions have instigated conservation at landscape scales and in urban areas; the growing roles of Māori and non-Māori communities; and audacious new goals that reflect continuing attitudinal changes to the conservation of native biodiversity alongside the global and local implications of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract This work was supported by the Woolf Fisher Trust and the Cambridge Commonwealth, European and International Trust, in the form of a Woolf Fisher Scholarship (2014). Highlights • Few studies explore the processes and possible impacts of adaptation constraints. • A lack of empirical depth means that they are often ignored in policy formulation. • This paper proposes a method for exploring the empirics of adaptation constraints. • Numerical preference functions are estimated for 15 salient constraints. • These constraints could be modelled quantitatively and should no longer be ignored. Abstract The concept of adaptation constraints has become well known in the climate change literature. It describes impediments to the process of adaptation that could in principle be overcome but often are not. Many adaptation constraints have been identified and described in the literature across a wide range of contexts, and the importance of their influence on climate change adaptation is clear. However most studies have focussed on describing constraints rather than exploring their origins, processes, and possible impacts. As a consequence, it has been difficult to operationalise the concept to provide information meaningful to decision makers. This study demonstrates an approach to estimating empirically the processes and the impacts of adaptation constraints, based on a case-study of farmers in New Zealand. It combines established social scientific methods to explore the processes underlying a range of adaptation constraints and estimate the impacts that these constraints may have. The approach can be used to explore further the social and economic impacts of adaptation constraints. This information can then be used to consider sub-optimal adaptation to climate change more fully, and paves the way for policy responses that are more conscious of the human elements of climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Kench, P.S.; Ryan, E.J.; Owen, S.; Bell, R.; Lawrence, J.; Glavovic, B.; Blackett, P.; Becker, J.; Schneider, P.; Allis, M.; Dickson, M., and Rennie, H.G. 2018. Co-creating resilience solutions to coastal hazards through an interdisciplinary research project in New Zealand, In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 1496–1500. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Coastal communities ‘living at the edge’ face intensification and acceleration of coastal hazard risk in the face of climate change. Communities will need to be adaptive in reducing these risks now and over long timeframes. Developing coastal hazard adaptation pathways requires co-production of interdisciplinary knowledge between scientists, policy makers and communities. However, there remains little guidance and limited dialogue about the research practices and frameworks that underpin co-created research. In a first for New Zealand, a co-created research programme is underway titled ‘Living at the Edge’ that aims to improve the resilience of coastal communities to coastal hazards. This paper provides novel insights into the complexities underpinning the formative stages of co-created research, drawing on practical experience from the Living at the Edge project. We explore the enablers and shapers that led to co-created shifts in the research project objectives and framework. Notions of integration, trust, and flexibility are three fundamental aspects that influenced the early stages of co-creation. The importance of bridging interactions with actors early on in co-created projects is exemplified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kench, P.S.; Ryan, E.J.; Owen, S.; Bell, R.; Lawrence, J.; Glavovic, B.; Blackett, P.; Becker, J.; Schneider, P.; Allis, M.; Dickson, M., and Rennie, H.G. 2018. Co-creating resilience solutions to coastal hazards through an interdisciplinary research project in New Zealand, In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 1496–1500. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Coastal communities 'living at the edge' face intensification and acceleration of coastal hazard risk in the face of climate change. Communities will need to be adaptive in reducing these risks now and over long timeframes. Developing coastal hazard adaptation pathways requires co-production of interdisciplinary knowledge between scientists, policy makers and communities. However, there remains little guidance and limited dialogue about the research practices and frameworks that underpin co-created research. In a first for New Zealand, a co-created research programme is underway titled 'Living at the Edge' that aims to improve the resilience of coastal communities to coastal hazards. This paper provides novel insights into the complexities underpinning the formative stages of co-created research, drawing on practical experience from the Living at the Edge project. We explore the enablers and shapers that led to co-created shifts in the research project objectives and framework. Notions of integration, trust, and flexibility are three fundamental aspects that influenced the early stages of co-creation. The importance of bridging interactions with actors early on in co-created projects is exemplified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the remarkable contribution of urbanisation to socio-economic development, it has complicated negative impacts on the environment. The growth of urbanisation has noticeable adverse impacts on urban microclimate and parameters generating the urban heat island (UHI) effect. These impacts, exacerbated by the gradual influences of global warming over time, make urban microclimate changes more complex. The future urban development and climate change adaptation plans in New Zealand (NZ) show almost no evidence of considering the status of future urban microclimate, UHI and outdoor thermal comfort. An initial literature review showed a relatively small number of papers and grey literature on urban microclimate in NZ. This motivated the authors to explore the status of studies on the urban microclimate and the following impacts on UHI and outdoor thermal comfort in NZ. The results showed a relatively small body of knowledge on urban microclimate studies in research articles published and governmental reports in the context of NZ. Likewise, the inconsistency of research parameters and methods studied and the lack of validation in the available studies, plus the neglection of future urban development and urban morphology, limit the clarity of the scientific understanding of changes to the urban microclimate in NZ. The results of this study address the missing links and provide new insight for future studies. This study suggests providing models that consider the continuous changes to the urban microclimate considering the uncertainty of climate change impacts on weather factors such as temperature and airflow. Assessment of the impact of current and future urban morphology on UHI is necessary to develop optimised urban design guidance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is strong evidence that the mean surface temperature of the Earth has risen significantly since 1900. Recent evidence suggests that, if warming of more than 2°C (above pre-industrial levels) is to be avoided, then the emissions of greenhouse gases by developed countries, like New Zealand, may need to fall by up to 70% by 2030 and 90% by 2050. Achieving such a rapid decarbonisation will require major changes in energy generation, transport fuels and behaviour, land use and urban design, underpinned by modifications to national policy frameworks, and changes in social attitudes and behaviour. This paper outlines the case for rapid decarbonisation, assesses the implications for New Zealand's economy and society, discusses the required policy changes and the likely economic and distributional impacts of such changes, and explores institutional factors influencing policy development and implementation. The paper draws on recent international and domestic studies of the likely economic and distributional impacts of policy measures to mitigate climate change. It also refers to some survey evidence concerning public attitudes towards climate change and the willingness of citizens to change their behaviour and support policy measures to reduce emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal snow in New Zealand is likely to be subject to substantial change due to the impacts of climate change. These changes will have wide ranging impacts on the New Zealand's economy through the energy, agricultural and tourism sectors. In this paper, we assess the impact of climate change, at a micro-scale for a selection of ski area locations in New Zealand. Where available, we have used current observations of snow depth to calibrate the snow model output for the current climate. We consider the change in the number of days with snow depths exceeding 0.30 m, 'snow-days', at each of these locations for the 2030-2049 (mid-point reference 2040) and 2080-2099 (mid-point reference 2090) time periods, for the three different emission scenarios (B1, A1B and A1FI). These future scenarios are compared to simulations of current, 1980-1999 (mid-point reference 1990), number of snow-days at these locations. We consider both an average year in each 20-year period, as well as a 'worst-case' year. At each ski area, we consider an upper and lower elevation site. Depending on the elevation and location of the specific site, our analysis shows that there will be a reduction in the number of snow-days in nearly all of the future scenarios and time periods. When we consider a worst-case or minimum snow year in the 1990s, the number of snow-days at each site ranges from 0 to 229, while by the 2040s, it ranges from 0 to 187 (B1), 0 to 183 (A1B) and 0 to 176 (A1FI). By the 2090s the number of snow-days ranges from 0 to 155 (B1), 0 to 90 (A1B) and 0 to 74 (A1FI). We also simulate the hourly future climate for the 2040s and 2090s, for the A1FI scenario, to enable calculations of the potential available time for snowmaking in these two future time periods. We use simulated temperatures and humidity to calculate the total potential snowmaking hours in the future climates. For the snowmaking analysis, only a worst-case year in each time period, rather than an average year, was used to assess the snowmaking potential. This was done to ensure consistency with snowmaking design practices. At all sites, for the A1FI emissions scenario and for both future time periods, a reduction in potential snowmaking hours is observed. By the 2040s, there is only 82 to 53 %, and by the 2090s, there is only 59 to 17 % of the snowmaking time as compared to the 1990s in a worst-case year. Despite this reduction in snowmaking opportunity, snowmaking was still possible at all sites examined. Furthermore, the amount of snow which could be made was sufficient to reinstate the number of snow-days to the lesser of either that observed in the 1990s for each site or to exceed 100 days. While our snowmaking analysis has some limitations, such as neglecting calculation of melt in the man-made snow component, this study highlights the importance of considering adaptation options such as snowmaking for a more complete impact assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Investigation of hydrological impacts of climate change at the regional scale requires the use of a downscaling technique. Significant progress has already been made in the development of new statistical downscaling techniques. Statistical downscaling techniques involve the development of relationships between the large scale climatic parameters and local variables. When the local parameter is precipitation, these relationships are often very complex and may not be handled efficiently using linear regression. For this reason, a number of non-linear regression techniques and the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was introduced. But due to the complexity and issues related to finding a global solution using ANN-based techniques, the Genetic Programming (GP) based techniques have surfaced as a potential better alternative. Compared to ANNs, GP based techniques can provide simpler and more efficient solutions but they have been rarely used for precipitation downscaling. This paper presents the results of statistical downscaling of precipitation data from the Clutha Watershed in New Zealand using a non-linear regression model developed by the authors using Gene Expression Programming (GEP), a variant of GP. The results show that GEP-based downscaling models can offer very simple and efficient solutions in the case of precipitation downscaling. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Concerns about climate change and water quality make it necessary to have a better understanding of the cycling of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) within landscapes. In New Zealand, pastoral farming on hill country is a major land use, and there is little information available at a landscape level on the cycling of C and N within these systems, particularly the impacts of land use intensification. Published information on the individual components of C and N cycles in hill country pastoral systems was used to construct simple C and N models for two notional hill country paddocks with contrasting amounts of annual net herbage accumulation (NHA). These simple models of C and N cycling were used to explore the potential impacts of intensification on soil C and N pools. The C and N models constructed illustrate that both the C and N cycles in hill country pastoral farming are characterised by large fluxes in and out of the system and relatively small annual accumulations or depletions of their respective soil pools. The mechanisms by which these inward and outward fluxes are generated differ greatly between C and N. Most of the C cycling through the soil/plant/animal system in a year is sourced from the atmosphere through photosynthesis in that same year and the annual quantity of C ingested by grazing animals is only approximately 25% of that fixed annually. In contrast, the annual quantity of N ingested by grazing animals is 300–400% of that added to the system annually by fixation, and most of this ingested N (>80%) is returned to the soil in animal excreta. This contrasts with <25% of ingested C returned in animal excreta. Grazing animals, with their propensity to exhibit camping behaviour, are therefore much more influential in the spatial redistribution of N than C in hill country pastures. The simple C and N models presented in this paper indicate that while land use intensification results in increased inputs of both C and N to the soil, intensification is also likely to result in increased losses of C and N from the soil pool. Which of these processes dominates in a given situation determines whether intensification will result in an increase or decrease of soil C and N. Based on a simple C model, we postulate that if intensification increases NHA by one unit there is likely to be an increase in soil C unless at the same time increased grazing pressure results in at least a three-unit increase in dry matter eaten/harvested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: New Zealand has a temperate maritime climate. Despite mild winters compared to nations with continental climates, New Zealand houses have been reported to often be at temperatures below internationally recommended levels. Sources of additional heating are therefore of interest to many New Zealand home occupants. Roof space solar gains have been identified as one possible source of heating. This paper investigates the energy gains available in New Zealand homes from ventilation systems drawing air from the roof cavity. Three New Zealand houses were monitored and a computer-based thermal building simulation developed to quantify the heating and cooling energy that might be transferred by home ventilation systems. The computer model simulating the temperature in the roof space and occupied spaces was constructed using MATLAB, and used publicly available weather station data as the inputs. A good match between measured and modelled results was obtained. Small heating and cooling benefits are possible at certain times from pumping roof space air into the living areas of some New Zealand houses. The magnitude of these benefits, however, is not significant compared with the space heating required to maintain reasonable indoor temperatures over the New Zealand winter. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The strategy for New Zealand dairy farming () formulates targets for increased national milk production and a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but acknowledges these two targets conflict because GHG typically increase with increased milk output. Our objective was to determine if both targets could be achieved by implementing combinations of five mitigations. A farm scale computer model, which includes a mechanistic cow model, was used to model a typical pasture based New Zealand dairy farm as the baseline farm. The five mitigations were: (1) improved reproductive performance of the herd resulting in lower replacement rates, (2) increased genetic merit of the cows combined with lower stocking rate and longer lactations, (3) keeping lactating cows on a loafing pad for 12h/day for 2 mo during autumn, (4) growing low protein crops of grains and/or silages of maize, barley and oats on a portion of the farm and feeding this to lactating cows, (5) reducing fertilizer N use and replacing some of this with nitrification inhibitors and the plant growth stimulant gibberellins. No single mitigation strategy achieved both targets of increasing production by 10–15% and reducing GHG emissions by 20%, but when all were simultaneously implemented in the baseline farm, milk production increased by 15–20% to 1200kg milk fat+protein/ha, and absolute GHG emissions decreased by 15–20% to 0.8kg CO2-equivalents (CO2-e)/kg fat and protein corrected milk (FPCM), which is equivalent to a decrease from 11.7 to 8.2kg CO2-e/kg fat+protein. The synergies of the mitigations resulted in reduced dry matter intake and enteric CH4 emissions, a reduction in N input and N dilution in feed, and, therefore, reduced urinary N excretion onto pastures, and an increase in feed conversion efficiency (i.e., more feed was used for production and less for maintenance). Mechanistic CH4 models as part of farm scale models are important because current GHG inventory methodology cannot properly evaluate CH4 emissions for a range of potential mitigation strategies. There is also a need to develop capabilities in farm scale models to accurately simulate urine patches and N2O emissions from these patches. This paper is part of the special issue entitled: Greenhouse Gases in Animal Agriculture – Finding a Balance between Food and Emissions, Guest Edited by T.A. McAllister, Section Guest Editors: K.A. Beauchemin, X. Hao, S. McGinn and Editor for Animal Feed Science and Technology, P.H. Robinson. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Recently, a single-site stochastic precipitation model called ''the mixture of generalized chain-dependent processes conditioned on a climate variable'' was developed. The model can effectively eliminate overdispersion--that is, underestimation in variance of seasonal precipitation total. In this paper, the single-site model is further developed into a multisite stochastic precipitation model by driving a collection of individual single-site models, but with spatial dependence following a method proposed by D. S. Wilks. Specifically, a computationally effective algorithm for estimating the spatial dependence of precipitation occurrence is developed to replace the construction of the empirical curves in the Wilks method. An effective and straightforward approach for correcting the bias of the spatial correlation of precipitation intensity is also proposed. This model is tested on a small network of sites from a significant hydroelectric power generation region of South Island, New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Increased landslide activity is commonly listed as an expected impact of human-induced climate change. This paper examines the theoretical and empirical bases for this assertion. It identifies the mechanisms by which climate can induce landsliding and examines the manner in which these mechanisms may respond to changes in a range of climatic parameters. It is argued that inherent limiting stability factors, which vary with different terrain conditions and landslide types, ultimately govern the nature of response to changing climate. Several modelling approaches are evaluated on the basis of their potential to predict landslide response to climate projections. Given reliable input data of appropriate form and resolution, the existing slope stability, hydrological, and statistical models are for the most part capable of yielding useful prognoses on occurrence, reactivation, magnitude and frequency of landsliding. While there is a strong theoretical basis for increased landslide activity as a result of predicted climate change, there remains a high level of uncertainty resulting from the margins of error inherent in scenario-driven global climate predictions, and the lack of sufficient spatial resolution of currently available downscaled projections. Examples from New Zealand are used to illustrate the extent to which changes resulting from human activity have affected slope stability. Changes resulting from human activity are seen as a factor of equal, if not greater, importance than climate change in affecting the temporal and spatial occurrence of landslides. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In the light of climate change, the drive for zero carbon buildings is known as one response to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Within New Zealand, research on climate change mitigation and environmental impacts of buildings has received renewed attention. However, there has been no detailed investigation of zero carbon building practices. This paper undertakes an exploratory study through the use of semi-structured interviews with government representatives and construction industry experts to examine how the New Zealand construction industry plans and implements zero carbon buildings. The results show that New Zealand's construction industry is in the early stage of transiting to a net-zero carbon built environment. Key actions to date are focused on devising a way for the industry to develop and deliver zero carbon building projects. Central and local governments play a leading role in driving zero carbon initiatives. Leading construction firms intend to maximise the carbon reduction in building projects by developing a roadmap to achieve the carbon target by 2050 and rethinking the way of designing and constructing buildings. The research results provide an insight into the initial practices and policy implications for the uptake of zero carbon buildings in Aotearoa New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buildings contribute to greenhouse gas emissions that cause environmental impacts on climate change. Net Zero Energy (NZ) buildings would reduce greenhouse gases. The current definition of NZ lacks consensus and has created uncertainties, which cause delays in the adoption of NZ. This paper proposes a Process for Clarification to Accelerate the Net Zero (PC-A-NZ) through three integrated steps: variations, strategies, and requirements. We expand on the results in published NZ literature to clarify the differences in definition and strategy. The objective of this review is to (1) distinguish current variable parameters that are slowing the acceptance of NZ, and (2) focus the discussion internationally on moving faster toward applying NZ to a larger common agreement. The publications of global NZ target assessment and energy efficient strategies will be reviewed to address the main requirements in expediting NZ's successful progress. Our NZ review analysis highlights (1) how the existing NZ definitions and criteria differ, (2) how calculation strategies vary, and (3) how standards and requirements are often localized. The proposed PC-A-NZ will help policymakers and stakeholders to re-evaluate the existing definitions, standards, and requirements to optimize the use of renewable technologies, improved energy efficiency and electrification to speed up achieving the NZ targets. Definition: There are multiple NZ definitions that vary in source and supply requirement, timescale, emission source, and grid connection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infrastructure systems and services (ISS) are vulnerable to changes in climate. This paper reports on a study of the impact of gradual climate changes on ISS in Hamilton City, New Zealand. This study is also the first of its kind to be applied to New Zealand ISS. In the future, the CLINZI project will extend to other areas of New Zealand. Using historical climate data and four climate change scenarios, we modelled the impact of climate change on aspects of water supply and quality, transport, energy demand, public health and air quality. Our analysis reveals that many of Hamilton City''s infrastructure systems demonstrated greater responsiveness to population changes than to gradual climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In terms of the effects of future climate change upon society, some of the most important parameters to estimate are associated with changing risks of extreme rainfall events, both floods and droughts. However, such aspects of the climate system are hard to estimate well using general circulation models (GCMs)—in particular, for a small mountainous landmass such as New Zealand. This paper describes a downscaling technique using broad-scale changes simulated by GCMs to select past analogs of future climate. The analog samples are assumed to represent an unbiased sample of future rainfall and are used to develop detailed descriptions of rainfall statistics using hidden semi-Markov models of rainfall breakpoint information. Such models are used to simulate long synthetic rainfall time series for comparison with the historical record. Results for three New Zealand sites show overall increases in rainfall with climate change, brought about largely by an increased frequency of rainfall events rather than an increase in rainfall intensity. There was little evidence for significant increases in high-intensity short-duration rainfalls at any site. Such results suggest that, although regional increases of rainfall are consistent with expected future climate changes, it may be that circulation changes, rather than temperature (and vapor pressure) changes, will be the more important determinant of future rainfall distributions, at least for the coming few decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vegetation of subantarctic Campbell Island consists mainly of lowland Dracophyllum scrub and upland tussock grassland and tundra. Soon after the island was discovered in 1810, occupation by sealers and whalers led to localized burning and cutting of scrub. Further burning and cutting took place as a result of sheep farming between 1894 and 1931. Since the earliest photographs and vegetation descriptions of the island in the late nineteenth century, scrub cover has expanded markedly. Also, since the 1960s, the island has become warmer and drier. The aim of this paper is to quantify scrub changes as depicted in photo-sequences from the island, and to establish if the spread of scrub is a result of the cessation of anthropogenic activities or a response to global warming. Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°33.7′S, 169°09′E). Changes in scrub cover in the island were established through analysis of 33 photographic sequences in the island, the earliest photos dating back to 1888. Visual estimates were made of percentage woody cover in matching areas of repeat photographs, and of changes in scrub distribution with altitude and landscape type. Dracophyllum scrub was restricted at the time of the first photographs (1888) relative to its present extent, and earlier written observations suggest that there had been little change from the 1840s. Scrub cover has subsequently increased in most areas. Most of the spread occurred after the cessation of farming. Change has mostly consisted of a thickening and expansion of pre-existing scrub patches. There is no indication that the upper elevational limit of scrub has increased. Initial reduction of scrub was probably due to anthropogenic fire in the early nineteenth century, although it is possible that less favourable climates had also restricted its distribution. Failure of the scrub to regenerate significantly between 1840 and c. 1895 may also have been a consequence of generally cooler, wetter climates at this time. Rapid scrub expansion began between the end of farming and burning in 1931 and 1988 when the remaining feral sheep were removed. Sheep grazing in the absence of fire reduced competition, and encouraged regeneration and growth of woody scrub. Spread was probably assisted by a pronounced shift to warmer, drier climates in the second half of the twentieth century. Upper elevational limits of scrub have not increased, suggesting that factors other than summer temperature are controlling scrub line in this superoceanic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we discuss a framework to evaluate the benefits of publicly-funded research that includes scientific impact, impacts on stakeholders (next and end users of research outputs), and economic and environmental values. We apply this framework to evaluate two agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation research science projects funded in New Zealand: research looking at mitigation options given by genetic markers for low methane animals, and the identification of emission-reducing management practices. From this analysis we achieve two main findings. First, the prominence of the research combined with the low likelihood of research occurring on this scale without public support suggests strongly that the results would not have been obtained in absence of public funding. Second, the advances reached in some areas have the potential for GHG emission reductions that would be significant in environmental terms, and whose value at likely carbon pricing levels would be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The results discussed are conditional on several factors such as future domestic and international policy settings and implementation, adoption rates and the practical availability of mitigation options and practices for different farm landscapes. However, the impacts and economic and environmental values attached to these research projects, and mitigation research more generally, cannot be overlooked. The case studies evaluated clearly demonstrate the potential benefits that public investments can make to the development of more sustainable agricultural systems. • A framework to evaluate publicly-funded research is discussed. • We note conceptual and practical considerations to gauge value and impacts. • Two New Zealand agricultural mitigation research projects are evaluated. • With an agricultural ETS, research has potential value of hundreds of millions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alpine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and studies suggest that mountain dwellers from delicate flowers in the Swiss Alps to pygmy possums in Australia are in trouble. Although it can be difficult to tease out other factors, including fire suppression and livestock grazing, a growing number of researchers fear that if the heat keeps rising, many alpine plants and animals will face quick declines or extinction. In neighboring New Zealand, a paper presented in 2003 in Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research predicts that a 3ºc temperature rise over the next century, moderate as estimates go, will wipe out 80 percent of alpine islands and extinguish a third to a half of 613 known alpine plants.