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We use generative AI to extract managerial expectations about their economic outlook from over 120,000 corporate conference call transcripts. The overall measure, AI Economy Score, robustly predicts future economic indicators such as GDP growth, production, and employment, both in the short term and to 10 quarters. This predictive power is incremental to that of existing measures, including survey forecasts. Moreover, industry and firm-level measures provide valuable information about sector-specific and individual firm activities. Our findings suggest that managerial expectations carry unique insights about economic activities, with implications for both macroeconomic and microeconomic decision-making., Comment: 26 Pages, 3 Figures, 11 Tables

We create a firm-level ChatGPT investment score, based on conference calls, that measures managers' anticipated changes in capital expenditures. We validate the score with interpretable textual content and its strong correlation with CFO survey responses. The investment score predicts future capital expenditure for up to nine quarters, controlling for Tobin's $q$ and other determinants, implying the investment score provides incremental information about firms' future investment opportunities. The investment score also separately forecasts future total, intangible, and R\&D investments. Consistent with theoretical predictions, high-investment-score firms experience significant positive short-term returns upon disclosure, and negative long-run future abnormal returns. We demonstrate ChatGPT's applicability to measure other policies, such as dividends and employment., Comment: 34 pages, 5 Figures, 18 Tables

We examine a century of radial velocity, visual magnitude, and astrometric observations of the nearest red supergiant, Betelgeuse, in order to reexamine the century-old assertion that Betelgeuse might be a spectroscopic binary. These data reveal Betelgeuse varying stochastically over years and decades due to its boiling, convective envelope, periodically with a $ 5.78$~yr long secondary period, and quasi-periodically from pulsations with periods of several hundred days. We show that the long secondary period is consistent between astrometric and RV datasets, and argue that it indicates a low-mass companion to Betelgeuse, less than a solar mass, orbiting in a 2,110 day period at a separation of just over twice Betelgeuse's radius. The companion star would be nearly twenty times less massive and a million times fainter than Betelgeuse, with similar effective temperature, effectively hiding it in plain sight near one of the best-studied stars in the night sky. The astrometric data favor an edge-on binary with orbital plane aligned with Betelgeuse's measured spin axis. Tidal spin-orbit interaction drains angular momentum from the orbit and spins up Betelgeuse, explaining the spin--orbit alignment and Betelgeuse's anomalously rapid spin. In the future, the orbit will decay until the companion is swallowed by Betelgeuse in the next 10,000 years., Comment: Submitted to AAS Journals, comments welcome

Disc winds and planet-disc interactions are two crucial mechanisms that define the structure, evolution and dispersal of protoplanetary discs. While winds are capable of removing material from discs, eventually leading to their dispersal, massive planets can shape their disc by creating sub-structures such as gaps and spiral arms. We study the interplay between an X-ray photoevaporative disc wind and the substructures generated due to planet-disc interactions to determine how their mutual interactions affect the disc's and the planet's evolution. We perform three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of viscous ($\alpha = 6.9\cdot10^{-4}$) discs that host a Jupiter-like planet and undergo X-ray photoevaporation. We trace the gas flows within the disc and wind and measure the accretion rate onto the planet, as well as the gravitational torque that is acting on it. Our results show that the planetary gap takes away the wind's pressure support, allowing wind material to fall back into the gap. This opens new pathways for material from the inner disc (and part of the outer disc) to be redistributed through the wind towards the gap. Consequently, the gap becomes shallower, and the flow of mass across the gap in both directions is significantly increased, as well as the planet's mass-accretion rate (by factors $\approx 5$ and $\approx 2$, respectively). Moreover, the wind-driven redistribution results in a denser inner disc and less dense outer disc, which, combined with the recycling of a significant portion of the inner wind, leads to longer lifetimes of the inner disc, contrary to the expectation in a planet-induced photoevaporation (PIPE) scenario that has been proposed in the past., Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A; 15+3 pages, 12+3 figures

This paper aims at revisit the physical and dynamical properties of the warm atomic gas in the inner disk region of classical T Tauri stars (CTTs) and relate them to the properties of the outer dusty disk. We used the high resolution (R=115,000) spectra of 36 CTTs observed as part of the GHOsT project and analysed the profile and luminosity of the brightest optical forbidden lines, namely [OI]630 and 557nm, [SII]406 and 673nm, and [NII]658nm. We find that in about 40% of sources the so-called narrow low-velocity component (NLVC) display a peak velocity compatible with the stellar velocity. In these sources, that typically show lower mass accretion rates and the absence of a jet, the [OI]630nm profiles are well fitted by a simple Keplerian disk model, indicating that the emission from the disk is dominant with respect to the wind contribution. For transitional disks (TD), no correlation is found between $R_{kep}$, derived from the line HWHM, and the size of the dust cavity. We also see an anti-correlation between the [OI] 557/630 nm ratio and $R_{kep}$, which suggests that the [OI] emitting region expands as the gas cools and becomes less dense. We confirmed previous findings on the density and temperature ranges implied by the line ratios, and additionally constrained the ionisation fraction in the NLVC to be < 0.1. We however discuss the limits of applying this diagnostic to winds that are not spatially resolved. For the outflow component, we estimated the mass-loss for both the disk winds and jets and compared the results with X-ray photoevaporative models. We conclude that without better knowledge of the wind geometry, and given the limitation of the diagnostics, the mass-loss in the wind traced by the LVC cannot be constrained better than a factor of 100, with a mass-loss/mass-accretion ratio spanning between ~ 0.01 and more than 1., Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics

Betelgeuse, a red supergiant star of semi-regular variability, reached a historical minimum brightness in February 2020, known as the Great Dimming. Even though the brightness has returned to the values prior to the Great Dimming now, it continues to exhibit highly unusual behavior. Our goal is to study long-term dynamics of the photosphere, including during the Great Dimming. We applied the tomographic method, which allows different layers in the stellar atmosphere to be probed in order to reconstruct depth-dependent velocity fields. The method is based on the construction of spectral masks by grouping spectral lines from specific optical depths. These masks are cross-correlated with the observed spectra to recover the velocity field inside each atmospheric layer. We obtained about 2800 spectra over the past 15 years that were observed with the STELLA robotic telescope in Tenerife. We analyzed the variability of five different layers of Betelgeuse's photosphere. We found phase shift between the layers, as well as between the variability of velocity and photometry. The time variations of the widths of the cross-correlation function reveal propagation of two shockwaves during the Great Dimming. For about two years after the dimming, the timescale of variability was different between the inner and outer photospheric layers. By 2022, all the layers were pulsating with higher frequency corresponding with the first overtone. The combination of the extensive high-resolution spectroscopic data set with the tomographic method revealed the variable velocity fields in the photosphere of Betelgeuse, for the first time in such detail. Our results demonstrate that powerful shocks are the triggering mechanism for episodic mass-loss events, which may be the missing component to explain the mass-loss process in red supergiants., Comment: 14 pages, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics

This paper addresses the challenges of detecting anomalies in cellular networks in an interpretable way and proposes a new approach using variational autoencoders (VAEs) that learn interpretable representations of the latent space for each Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in the dataset. This enables the detection of anomalies based on reconstruction loss and Z-scores. We ensure the interpretability of the anomalies via additional information centroids (c) using the K-means algorithm to enhance representation learning. We evaluate the performance of the model by analyzing patterns in the latent dimension for specific KPIs and thereby demonstrate the interpretability and anomalies. The proposed framework offers a faster and autonomous solution for detecting anomalies in cellular networks and showcases the potential of deep learning-based algorithms in handling big data.

Diffractive optical elements (DOEs) have a wide range of applications in optics and photonics, thanks to their capability to perform complex wavefront shaping in a compact form. However, widespread applicability of DOEs is still limited, because existing fabrication methods are cumbersome and expensive. Here, we present a simple and cost-effective fabrication approach for solid, high-performance DOEs. The method is based on conjugating two nearly refractive index-matched solidifiable transparent materials. The index matching allows for extreme scaling up of the elements in the axial dimension, which enables simple fabrication of a template using commercially available 3D printing at tens-of-micrometer resolution. We demonstrated the approach by fabricating and using DOEs serving as microlens arrays, vortex plates, including for highly sensitive applications such as vector beam generation and super-resolution microscopy using MINSTED, and phase-masks for three-dimensional single-molecule localization microscopy. Beyond the advantage of making DOEs widely accessible by drastically simplifying their production, the method also overcomes difficulties faced by existing methods in fabricating highly complex elements, such as high-order vortex plates, and spectrum-encoding phase masks for microscopy.

Disc winds and planet formation are considered to be two of the most important mechanisms that drive the evolution and dispersal of protoplanetary discs and in turn define the environment in which planets form and evolve. While both have been studied extensively in the past, we combine them into one model by performing three-dimensional radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of giant planet hosting discs that are undergoing X-ray photo-evaporation, with the goal to analyse the interactions between both mechanisms. In order to study the effect on observational diagnostics, we produce synthetic observations of commonly used wind-tracing forbidden emission lines with detailed radiative transfer and photo-ionisation calculations. We find that a sufficiently massive giant planet carves a gap in the gas disc that is deep enough to affect the structure and kinematics of the pressure-driven photo-evaporative wind significantly. This effect can be strong enough to be visible in the synthetic high-resolution observations of some of our wind diagnostic lines, such as the [OI] 6300 \r{A} or [SII] 6730 \r{A} lines. When the disc is observed at inclinations around 40{\deg} and higher, the spectral line profiles may exhibit a peak in the redshifted part of the spectrum, which cannot easily be explained by simple wind models alone. Moreover, massive planets can induce asymmetric substructures within the disc and the photo-evaporative wind, giving rise to temporal variations of the line profiles that can be strong enough to be observable on timescales of less than a quarter of the planet's orbital period., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 13+3 pages, 8+1 figures

Taking into account information across the temporal domain helps to improve environment perception in autonomous driving. However, it has not been studied so far whether temporally fused neural networks are vulnerable to deliberately generated perturbations, i.e. adversarial attacks, or whether temporal history is an inherent defense against them. In this work, we study whether temporal feature networks for object detection are vulnerable to universal adversarial attacks. We evaluate attacks of two types: imperceptible noise for the whole image and locally-bound adversarial patch. In both cases, perturbations are generated in a white-box manner using PGD. Our experiments confirm, that attacking even a portion of a temporal input suffices to fool the network. We visually assess generated perturbations to gain insights into the functioning of attacks. To enhance the robustness, we apply adversarial training using 5-PGD. Our experiments on KITTI and nuScenes datasets demonstrate, that a model robustified via K-PGD is able to withstand the studied attacks while keeping the mAP-based performance comparable to that of an unattacked model., Comment: Accepted for publication at ECCV 2022 SAIAD workshop

The bright supergiant, Betelgeuse (Alpha Orionis, HD 39801), underwent a historic optical dimming during 2020 January 27 $-$ February 13. Many imaging and spectroscopic observations across the electromagnetic spectrum were obtained prior to, during, and subsequent to this dimming event. These observations of Betelgeuse reveal that a substantial surface mass ejection (SME) occurred and moved out through the extended atmosphere of the supergiant. A photospheric shock occurred in 2019 January - March, progressed through the extended atmosphere of the star during the following 11 months and led to dust production in the atmosphere. Resulting from the substantial mass outflow, the stellar photosphere was left with lower temperatures and the chromosphere with a lower density. The mass ejected could represent a significant fraction of the total annual mass loss rate from the star suggesting that episodic mass loss events can contribute an amount comparable to that of the stellar wind. Following the SME, Betelgeuse was left with a cooler average photosphere, an unusual short photometric oscillation, reduced velocity excursions, and the disappearance of the $\sim$400-day pulsation in the optical and radial velocity for more than two years following the Great Dimming., Comment: The Astrophysical Journal, 2022, to be published Aug 4, 2022

Due to its immediate response, the electro-optic effect is exploited for high-frequency phase and power modulation and for beam deflection. Besides the immediate response, electro-optic materials exhibit creep due to relaxation processes in the material, which results in a gradual settling of the response when a voltage is applied for tens of milliseconds. A bi-exponential filter can compensate this behavior, reported here for electro-optic deflectors made of AD*P, such that these deflectors can be used over the entire frequency range of the driver with a residual settling error <0.001 of the deflection., Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures, 7 references