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Key Points: Question: How many excess deaths and years of potential life lost for the Black population, compared with the White population, occurred in the United States from 1999 through 2020? Findings: Based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, excess deaths and years of potential life lost persisted throughout the period, with initial progress followed by stagnation of improvement and substantial worsening in 2020. The Black population had 1.63 million excess deaths, representing more than 80 million years of potential life lost over the study period. Meaning: After initial progress, excess mortality and years of potential life lost among the US Black population stagnated and then worsened, indicating a need for new approaches. Importance: Amid efforts in the US to promote health equity, there is a need to assess recent progress in reducing excess deaths and years of potential life lost among the Black population compared with the White population. Objective: To evaluate trends in excess mortality and years of potential life lost among the Black population compared with the White population. Design, setting, and participants: Serial cross-sectional study using US national data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 1999 through 2020. We included data from non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black populations across all age groups. Exposures: Race as documented in the death certificates. Main outcomes and measures: Excess age-adjusted all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, age-specific mortality, and years of potential life lost rates (per 100 000 individuals) among the Black population compared with the White population. Results: From 1999 to 2011, the age-adjusted excess mortality rate declined from 404 to 211 excess deaths per 100 000 individuals among Black males (P for trend <.001). However, the rate plateaued from 2011 through 2019 (P for trend =.98) and increased in 2020 to 395—rates not seen since 2000. Among Black females, the rate declined from 224 excess deaths per 100 000 individuals in 1999 to 87 in 2015 (P for trend <.001). There was no significant change between 2016 and 2019 (P for trend =.71) and in 2020 rates increased to 192—levels not seen since 2005. The trends in rates of excess years of potential life lost followed a similar pattern. From 1999 to 2020, the disproportionately higher mortality rates in Black males and females resulted in 997 623 and 628 464 excess deaths, respectively, representing a loss of more than 80 million years of life. Heart disease had the highest excess mortality rates, and the excess years of potential life lost rates were largest among infants and middle-aged adults. Conclusions and relevance: Over a recent 22-year period, the Black population in the US experienced more than 1.63 million excess deaths and more than 80 million excess years of life lost when compared with the White population. After a period of progress in reducing disparities, improvements stalled, and differences between the Black population and the White population worsened in 2020. This study focuses on differences in mortality and years of potential life lost between Black and White populations to understand recent trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Medicaid, the primary source of insurance coverage for disadvantaged Americans, was originally designed as a temporary safety-net program. No studies have used long-run data to assess the recent use of the program by beneficiaries.Objective: To assess patterns of short- and long-term enrollment among beneficiaries, using a 10-year longitudinal panel of Michigan Medicaid eligibility data.Design: Primary analyses assessing trends in Medicaid enrollment among cohorts of existing and new beneficiaries.Setting: Administrative records from Michigan Medicaid for the period 2011 to 2020.Participants: 3.97 million Medicaid beneficiaries.Measurements: Short- and long-term enrollment in the program.Results: The sample includes 3.97 million unique beneficiaries enrolled at some point between 2011 and 2020. Among a cohort of 1.23 million beneficiaries enrolled in 2011, over half (53%) were also enrolled in Medicaid in June 2020, spending, on average, two-thirds of that period (67%) on Medicaid. These beneficiaries, however, experienced substantial lapses in coverage, as only 25% were continuously enrolled throughout the period. Enrollment was less stable when assessed from the perspective of newly enrolled beneficiaries, of whom only 37% remained enrolled at the end of the study period.Limitation: Primary estimates from a single state.Conclusion: For many beneficiaries, Medicaid has served as their primary source of coverage for at least a decade. This pattern would justify increasing investments in the program to improve long-term health outcomes.Primary Funding Source: Self-funded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Risk adjustment is used widely in payment systems and performance assessments, but the extent to which it distinguishes plan or provider effects from confounding due to patient differences is typically unknown.Objective: To assess the degree to which risk-adjusted measures of health plan performance adequately adjust for the variation across plans that arises because of differences in patient characteristics (residual confounding).Design: Comparison between plan performance estimates based on enrollees who made plan choices (observational population) and estimates based on enrollees assigned to plans (randomized population).Setting: Natural experiment in which more than two thirds of a state's Medicaid population in 1 region was randomly assigned to 1 of 5 plans.Participants: 137 933 enrollees in 2013 to 2014, of whom 31.1% selected a plan and 68.9% were randomly assigned to 1 of the same 5 plans.Measurements: Annual total spending (that is, payments to providers), primary care use, dental care use, and avoidable emergency department visits, all scored as plan-specific deviations from the "average" plan performance within each population.Results: Enrollee characteristics were appreciably imbalanced across plans in the observational population, as expected, but were not in the randomized population. Annual total spending varied across plans more in the observational population (SD, $147 per enrollee) than in the randomized population (SD, $70 per enrollee) after accounting for baseline differences in the observational and randomized populations and for differences across plans. On average, a plan's spending score (its deviation from the "average" performance) in the observational population differed from its score in the randomized population by $67 per enrollee in absolute value (95% CI, $38 to $123), or 4.2% of mean spending per enrollee (P = 0.009, rejecting the null hypothesis that this difference would be expected from sampling error). The difference was reduced modestly by risk adjustment to $62 per enrollee (P = 0.012). Residual confounding was similarly substantial for most other performance measures. Further adjustment for social factors did not materially change estimates.Limitation: Potential heterogeneity in plan effects between the 2 populations.Conclusion: Residual confounding in risk-adjusted performance assessments can be substantial and should caution policymakers against assuming that risk adjustment isolates real differences in plan performance.Primary Funding Source: Arnold Ventures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To evaluate the effect of a forced disruption to Medicaid managed care plans and provider networks on health utilization and outcomes for children with persistent asthma. Data Sources: Medicaid managed care administrative claims data from 2013 to 2016, obtained from a southeastern state. Study Design: A difference‐in‐difference analysis compared patients' outpatient, inpatient, and emergency department (ED) utilization and receipt of recommended services before and after implementation of a statewide redistribution of patients among nine managed care plans. Data Collection/Extraction Methods: Enrollment data for children with asthma were linked to the administrative claims. Children were included if they had a diagnosis of persistent asthma in 2013 and if they were enrolled continuously throughout 2014‐2016. Principal Findings: Among the 28 537 children with asthma, 26% were forced to switch their managed care plan after the redistribution. Of these, 67% also switched their primary care provider (PCP). Relative to those who remained in their plan, disruption was associated with an additional 2.1 percentage‐point decrease in the number of children who had an outpatient visit per quarter [95%CI −2.8, −1.3], from 71% to 66% (compared to plan stayers: 74% to 71%). Among children experiencing a change to their plan, there was overall a decrease in the proportion of children receiving an asthma‐specific visit per quarter, but there was less of a decrease in children that also changed their PCP [1.6 percentage points, 95%CI 0.7, 2.5], from 9.7% to 8.3% (compared to those who did not switch their PCP: 12% to 8.6%). Indicators of asthma care quality and emergent care utilization were not significantly different between the two periods. Conclusions: While there was a decrease in the number of outpatient visits associated with forced disruption of Medicaid managed care plans for children with persistent asthma, there were no consistent associations with worse asthma quality performance or higher emergent health care utilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance Several recent policy proposals have sought to expand the role of Medicaid in providing health insurance for low-income Americans, but there is little recent information on how physician participation in Medicaid compares with alternative forms of coverage for low-income Americans. Objective To compare the number of office-based physicians included in Medicaid managed care and health insurance exchange plans that operate in the same geographic markets. Design, Setting, and Participants This cross-sectional study used administrative data from physician network directories and survey data from office-based physicians for Kansas, Nebraska, New York, Tennessee, and Washington. The number of participants totaled 67 057 office-based physicians in the 5 sample states. Data were collected and analyzed from May 2018 to June 2019. Exposures Physician participation in a Medicaid managed care or health insurance exchange plan network. Main Outcomes and Measures The percentage of office-based physicians in a county who indicated during a phone survey that they participated in Medicaid; the percentage of office-based physicians in a county who participated in each Medicaid managed care and health insurance exchange plan network; and the percentage of office-based physicians in a county who participated in at least one Medicaid managed care plan or, separately, at least one health insurance exchange plan. Results Of the 67 057 office-based physicians in our sample, 49 983 reported in a telephone survey that they accepted Medicaid. This survey-based measure undercounted the percentage of physicians participating in Medicaid by 5.2% (95% CI, 2.3%-8.1%; P < .001) relative to a measure based on physician network directories. Medicaid managed care physician networks covered a mean (SD) of 63.4% (20.5%) of office-based physicians compared with health insurance exchange physician networks, which covered 51.0% (25.2%). In adjusted analyses, Medicaid managed care plans covered 6.2% (95% CI, 3.2%-9.3%, P < .001) more office-based physicians than health insurance exchange plans operating in the same counties. In the states where the same insurers participated in both markets (New York, Tennessee, Washington), the Medicaid managed care physician networks were 6.5% (95% CI, 3.2%-9.8%, P < .001) larger than the health insurance exchange networks offered by the same insurer. Conclusions and Relevance In this cross-sectional study of physician network data, Medicaid managed care physician networks included more office-based physicians than the physician networks of health insurance exchange plans operating in the same geographic markets. This suggests that Medicaid remains a viable option for expanding coverage in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Privately insured individuals frequently use out-of-network psychiatrists. Yet, whether treatment provided by psychiatrists who do not accept private insurance differs from treatment provided by those who do has not been studied. The investigators described provider characteristics, patient characteristics, and treatment patterns among psychiatrists who do not accept new patients with private insurance.Methods: Data for this study came from the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (2011-2014), a nationally representative annual cross-sectional survey of physicians providing ambulatory care. Responses of psychiatrists who report accepting any new patients (N=440) were examined, representing 7,634 visits.Results: Compared with psychiatrists accepting privately insured patients, those not accepting privately insured patients had fewer visits with patients with serious mental illness (42% versus 53%; p=0.016). These psychiatrists had a higher proportion of visits lasting longer than 30 minutes (48% versus 34%; p=0.026), and their patients were more likely to have had 10 or more visits in the past 12 months (41% versus 28%; p=0.013). There were no differences in the proportion of visits in which treatment included psychotherapy (48% versus 44%).Conclusions: Although psychiatrists not accepting patients with private insurance were less likely than other psychiatrists to treat patients with serious mental illness, their patients were more likely to have longer visits and a relatively high number of visits in the past year. The low rate of acceptance of insurance among psychiatrists may have the greatest effect among those most in need of services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess the impact of assignment to a Medicaid-focused versus mixed managed care plan on continuity of Medicaid coverage.Data Sources: 2011-2016 Medicaid claims from a Northeastern state.Study Design: Following the exit of a Medicaid managed care insurer, Medicaid administrators prioritized provider networks in reassigning enrollees, but randomly assigned beneficiaries whose providers were equally represented in the two plans. We leveraged the natural experiment created by random plan assignment and conducted an instrumental variable analysis.Data Collection: We analyzed Medicaid claims for 12,083 beneficiaries who were members of the exiting Blue Cross Blue Shield plan prior to January 1, 2011.Principal Findings: Managed care plan type did not significantly impact continuous enrollment in the Medicaid program. Greater outpatient utilization and the presence of a special need among children were associated with longer enrollment in Medicaid.Conclusions: Managed care plans did not differ in their capacity to keep Medicaid beneficiaries continuously enrolled in coverage, despite differences in plan features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess the effect of the 2014 Medicaid expansion on Medicaid managed care plan quality.Data Sources: Three composite measures of plan-level quality constructed from the Health Care Effectiveness Data and Information Set.Study Setting: One hundred and sixty-three plans in 27 Medicaid expansion states and 100 plans in 14 nonexpansion states.Study Design: Quasi-experimental difference-in-differences (DID) analysis, comparing quality before (2011-13) and after (2014-15) Medicaid expansion in states that elected to expand Medicaid eligibility and those that did not.Principal Findings: Mean plan enrollment increased from 130,533 to 274,259 in expansion states and from 105,449 to 148,194 in nonexpansion states. The proportion of enrollees receiving recommended preventive care increased from 62.6 to 65.2 percent in expansion states and from 59.3 to 62.5 percent in nonexpansion states (adjusted DID: -0.7 percentage points [95% CI -2.2, 0.7]). The proportion of enrollees receiving recommended chronic disease care management increased from 65.4 to 66.0 percent in expansion states and from 62.5 to 63.1 percent in nonexpansion states (adjusted DID: 1.1 percentage points [95% CI -0.5, 2.6]). We observed similar patterns for the receipt of recommended maternity care.Conclusions: Medicaid expansion increased enrollment in managed care plans, but it did not result in erosion of quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Health plans use selective physician networks to control costs while improving quality. However, narrow (limited) networks raise concerns about reduced access to and continuity of care. In the period 2010-15, the proportion of Medicaid managed care plans in fourteen states with narrow primary care physician networks--that is, the plans that employed 30 percent or less of those physicians in their market--declined from a peak of 42 percent in 2011 to 27 percent in 2015. On average, plans experienced a 12 percent annual turnover rate, with 34 percent of primary care physicians exiting within five years. Turnover was 3 percentage points higher in plans with narrow networks after one year, and 20 percentage points higher after five years, compared to turnover in plans with non-narrow networks. These findings suggest that efforts to maintain adequate physician networks must monitor not only the breadth of the networks, but also the continuity within them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance: State Medicaid programs have increasingly contracted with insurers to provide medical care services for enrollees (Medicaid managed care plans). Insurers that provide these plans can exit Medicaid programs each year, with unclear effects on quality of care and health care experiences.Objective: To determine the frequency and interstate variation of health plan exit from Medicaid managed care and evaluate the relationship between health plan exit and market-level quality.Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort of all comprehensive Medicaid managed care plans (N = 390) during the interval 2006-2014.Exposures: Plan exit, defined as the withdrawal of a managed care plan from a state's Medicaid program.Main Outcomes and Measures: Eight measures from the Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set were used to construct 3 composite indicators of quality (preventive care, chronic disease care management, and maternity care). Four measures from the Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems were combined into a composite indicator of patient experience, reflecting the proportion of beneficiaries rating experiences as 8 or above on a 0-to-10-point scale. Outcome data were available for 248 plans (68% of plans operating prior to 2014, representing 78% of beneficiaries).Results: Of the 366 comprehensive Medicaid managed care plans operating prior to 2014, 106 exited Medicaid. These exiting plans enrolled 4 848 310 Medicaid beneficiaries, with a mean of 606 039 beneficiaries affected by plan exits annually. Six states had a mean of greater than 10% of Medicaid managed care recipients enrolled in plans that exited, whereas 10 states experienced no plan exits. Plans that exited from a state's Medicaid market performed significantly worse prior to exiting than those that remained in terms of preventive care (57.5% vs 60.4%; difference, 2.9% [95% CI, 0.3% to 5.5%]), maternity care (69.7% vs 73.6%; difference, 3.8% [95% CI, 1.7% to 6.0%]), and patient experience (73.5% vs 74.8%; difference, 1.3% [95% CI, 0.6% to 1.9%]). There was no significant difference between exiting and nonexiting plans for the quality of chronic disease care management (76.2% vs 77.1%; difference, 1.0% [95% CI, -2.1% to 4.0%]). There was also no significant change in overall market performance before and after the exit of a plan: 0.7-percentage point improvement in preventive care quality (95% CI, -4.9 to 6.3); 0.2-percentage point improvement in chronic disease care management quality (95% CI, -5.8 to 6.2); 0.7-percentage point decrease in maternity care quality (95% CI, -6.4 to 5.0]); and a 0.6-percentage point improvement in patient experience ratings (95% CI, -3.9 to 5.1). Medicaid beneficiaries enrolled in exiting plans had access to coverage for a higher-quality plan, with 78% of plans in the same county having higher quality for preventive care, 71.1% for chronic disease management, 65.5% for maternity care, and 80.8% for patient experience.Conclusions and Relevance: Between 2006 and 2014, health plan exit from the US Medicaid program was frequent. Plans that exited generally had lower quality ratings than those that remained, and the exits were not associated with significant overall changes in quality or patient experience in the plans in the Medicaid market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of risk adjustment is not to predict spending accurately but to support the social goals of a payment system, which include equity. Setting population-based payments at accurate predictions risks entrenching spending levels that are insufficient to mitigate the impact of social determinants on health care use and effectiveness. Instead, to advance equity, payments must be set above current levels of spending for historically disadvantaged groups. In analyses intended to guide such reallocations, we found that current risk adjustment for the community-dwelling Medicare population overpredicts annual spending for Black and Hispanic beneficiaries by $376-$1,264. The risk-adjusted spending for these populations is lower than spending for White beneficiaries despite the former populations' worse risk-adjusted health and functional status. Thus, continued movement from fee-for-service to population-based payment models that omit race and ethnicity from risk adjustment (as current models do) should result in sizable resource reallocations and incentives that support efforts to address racial and ethnic disparities in care. We found smaller overpredictions for less-educated beneficiaries and communities with higher proportions of residents who are Black, Hispanic, or less educated, suggesting that additional payment adjustments that depart from predictive accuracy are needed to support health equity. These findings also suggest that adding social risk factors as predictors to spending models used for risk adjustment may be counterproductive or accomplish little. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]