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Background: We aimed to evaluate the validity of self-administered questionnaire surveys and face-to-face interview surveys for the detection of Helicobacter pylori eradication therapy. Methods: Participants were a cohort, aged 40–74 years, living in three different locations of Japan, who took part in the baseline survey (2011–2012) of the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation (JPHC-NEXT). Five years after the baseline survey, a questionnaire and interview survey were independently conducted to determine the history of Helicobacter pylori eradication treatment over the 5-year period. Prescription of Helicobacter pylori eradication medications in national insurance claims data from the baseline survey to the 5-year survey was used as a reference standard. Results: In total, 15,760 questionnaire surveys and 8,006 interview surveys were included in the analysis. There were 3,471 respondents to the questionnaire and 2,398 respondents to the interview who reported having received Helicobacter pylori eradication treatment within the past 5 years. Comparison of the questionnaire survey to national insurance claims data showed a sensitivity of 95.1% (2,213/2,328), specificity of 90.6% (12,174/13,432), positive predictive value of 63.8% (2,213/3,471), negative predictive value of 99.1% (12,174/12,289), and Cohen’s Kappa value of 0.71. Respective values of the interview survey were 94.4% (1,694/1,795), 88.7% (5,507/6,211), 70.6% (1,694/2,398), 98.2% (5,507/5,608), and 0.74. Conclusion: Both the questionnaire and the interview showed high sensitivity, high specificity, and good agreement with the insurance claim prescriptions data. Some participants may have received eradication treatment without going through the public insurance claim database, resulting in a low positive predictive value.

Abstract Background Having positive psychological well-being has been associated with serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC), but no longitudinal study to date has examined the association between Ikigai and serum HDLC. Therefore, we examined the association between Ikigai and change in serum HDLC over time using a cohort dataset spanning 2010–2018. Methods The study included 471 men and 776 women aged 40–74 years who underwent a cardiovascular examination in 2010 and were asked their levels of Ikigai. We combined “definitely yes” and “yes” as “with Ikigai” and recorded “a little” as “with a little Ikigai” and “no” as “without Ikigai”. We measured serum HDLC using direct methods. The association between Ikigai and serum HDLC levels at baseline, and changes in this relationship during an eight-year period, were analyzed using linear mixed-effect models. Results At the baseline, relative to those without Ikigai, women with Ikigai had higher serum HDLC (baseline difference in those with a little Ikigai = 7.52 mg/dl, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12 to 13.9 and in those with Ikigai = 8.11 mg/dl, 95% CI: 1.54 to 14.7). The difference in serum HDLC between women with and without Ikigai remained over the eight-year follow-up period. There were no similar Ikigai-associated differences in the serum HDLC of men. Conclusions Women with Ikigai showed differences in serum HDLC that were observed at baseline and persisted over time.

Abstract Background Suicide rates in Japan have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and foreign residents may be more vulnerable to mental stress during such crises. Therefore, we aimed to compare the trends in suicide rates during the COVID-19 pandemic between foreign residents and Japanese citizens. Methods Vital statistics of Japan data from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2021 were used to calculate quarterly sex-specific suicide rates for foreign residents and Japanese citizens. An event-study analysis was conducted to evaluate whether suicide rates during the COVID-19 pandemic increased compared to pre-pandemic estimates; foreign residents and Japanese citizens were compared using difference-in-difference-in-differences estimates. Results Between 2016 and 2021, 1,431 foreign residents and 121,610 Japanese citizens died from suicide in Japan. Although the suicide rate for foreign residents was lower than that for Japanese citizens, Korean residents, who comprise approximately half of the foreign decedents, had largely higher suicide rates than Japanese citizens. The event-study analysis indicated that suicide rates increased among foreign residents for both men and women, and continued for men by the end of 2021. In Japanese citizens, after a decline in suicide rates in the second quarter of 2020, suicide rates increased both among men and women, and lasted for women until the fourth quarter of 2021. The difference-in-difference-in-differences analyses confirmed the initial decline in the second quarter of 2020 in suicide rate only in Japanese men and women, and the persistent increase through 2021 in foreign men. Conclusions We found differential trends in suicide rates between foreign and Japanese men and women during the COVID-19 pandemic featuring a persistent increase in foreign men. Suicide prevention measures should be focused on these high-risk subpopulations.

Background: An association between birth weight and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in adulthood has been observed in many countries; however, only a few studies have been conducted in Asian populations. Methods: We used data from the baseline survey (2011–2016) of the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation Cohort, which included 114,105 participants aged 40–74 years. Adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated from the prevalence of present and past histories of CVD and other lifestyle-related diseases, including hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and gout, by birth weight, using Poisson regression. Results: The prevalence of CVD increased with lower birth weight, with the highest prevalence among those with birth weight under 1,500 grams (males 4.6%; females 1.7%) and the lowest one among those with birth weight at or over 4,000 g (males 3.7%: females 0.8%). Among 88,653 participants (41,156 males and 47,497 females) with complete data on possible confounders, birth weight under 1,500 g was associated with a higher prevalence of CVD (aPR 1.76; 95% CI, 1.37–2.26), hypertension (aPR 1.29; 95% CI, 1.17–1.42), and diabetes (aPR 1.53; 95% CI, 1.26–1.86) when a birth weight of 3,000–3,999 grams was used as the reference. Weaker associations were observed for birth weight of 1,500–2,499 grams and 2,500–2,999 grams, while no significant associations were observed for birth weight at or over 4,000 grams. The association between birth weight and the prevalence of hyperlipidemia was less profound, and no significant association was observed between birth weight and gout. Conclusion: Lower birth weight was associated with a higher prevalence of CVD, hypertension, and diabetes in the Japanese population.

Background: Associations of major risk factors for stroke with total and each type of stroke, as well as subtypes of ischemic stroke, and their population attributable fractions had not been examined comprehensively. Methods: Participants of the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective (JPHC) Study Cohort II without histories of cardiovascular disease and cancer (n = 14,797) were followed from 1993 through 2012. Associations of current smoking, hypertension, diabetes, overweight (body mass index ≥25 kg/m2), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDLC) categories, low HDLC (

Objective This population-based, cross-sectional study was performed to investigate the relationship between a history of glaucoma and subjective happiness.Methods and analysis We conducted a cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey of 92 397 Japanese men and women aged 40–74 who participated in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation study. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to estimate the ORs of glaucoma associated with subjective happiness and their two-sided 95% CIs.Results Among 40 727 men and 51 670 women, 1733 participants (635 men, 1098 women) had a history of glaucoma. The odds of unhappiness in male participants with a history of glaucoma were higher (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.51) than in female participants (OR 1.05; 95% CI 0.90 to 1.23). In a subgroup analysis stratified by age, among participants with a history of glaucoma, males in the younger group (40–59 years) showed the most robust association with unhappiness (OR 1.40; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.88).Conclusions These findings suggest that a history of glaucoma is related with subjective unhappiness, especially in men.

Low back and knee pain, as major symptoms and early signs of osteoarthritis, have restricted healthy life expectancy, and numerous guidelines have recommended therapeutic exercise as the first-line treatment for chronic pain. Proportions of medical and exercise consultation use for those pain have been unclear, and these may change in the future. We performed a cross-sectional study of 2,954 persons aged over 30 years in 2017 as a part of the Circulatory Risk in Communities Study. A generalized linear model with logit link and 11-year age-group moving averages were used to estimate sex- and age-specific average proportions of lifetime pain, chronic pain, and dysfunctional chronic pain of the low back and knee, and history of medical and exercise consultation use. The medical consultation use increased in the order of lifetime pain, chronic pain, and dysfunctional chronic pain, reaching 69.1 % [65.2, 72.8] in women and 74.9 % [70.3, 79.0] in men for chronic low back pain, and 70.3 % [66.1, 74.2] in women and 55.6 % [49.3, 61.7] in men for chronic knee pain. On the other hand, the exercise consultation use accounted for 36.5 % [32.6, 40.6] in women and 28.8 % [24.4, 33.5] in men for chronic low back pain, and 40.8 % [36.5, 45.2] in women and 20.6 % [16.0, 26.0] in men for chronic knee pain. This survey revealed the differences in the multilayer proportions of medical and exercise consultation use for low back and knee pain in the cardiovascular mass screening, suggesting exercise consultation was less often provided compared to medical consultation.

Background: The association between hobby engagement and risk of dementia reported from a short-term follow-up study for individuals aged ≥65 years may be susceptible to reverse causation. We examined the association between hobby engagement in age of 40–69 years and risk of dementia in a long-term follow-up study among Japanese, including individuals in mid-life, when the majority of individuals have normal cognitive function. Methods: A total of 22,377 individuals aged 40–69 years completed a self-administered questionnaire in 1993–1994. The participants answered whether they had hobbies according to the three following responses: having no hobbies, having a hobby, and having many hobbies. Follow-up for incident disabling dementia was conducted with long-term care insurance data from 2006 to 2016. Results: During a median of 11.0 years of follow-up, 3,095 participants developed disabling dementia. Adjusting for the demographic, behavioral, and psychosocial factors, the multivariable hazard ratios of incident disabling dementia compared with “having no hobbies” were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75–0.89) for “having a hobby” and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.67–0.91) for “having many hobbies”. The inverse association was similarly observed in both middle (40–64 years) and older ages (65–69 years). For disabling dementia subtypes, hobby engagement was inversely associated with the risk of dementia without a history of stroke (probably non-vascular type dementia), but not with that of post-stroke dementia (probably vascular type dementia). Conclusion: Hobby engagement in both mid-life and late life was associated with a lower risk of disabling dementia without a history of stroke.

Abstract Residents of Chikusei City, aged 40–74 years, underwent systemic and ophthalmological screening, and participants with diabetes were included in this analysis. Dietary intake was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire and calculated as a percentage of the total energy. The presence of diabetic retinopathy (DR) was defined as Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study levels ≥ 20 in either eye. The association between dietary fatty acid intake and DR has been examined in a cross-sectional study. Among the 647 diabetic participants, 100 had DR. The mean total fat and saturated fatty acid (SFA) intakes were 22.0% and 7.3% of the total energy intake, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders, the highest quartiles of total fat and SFA intake were positively associated with the presence of DR compared with the lowest quartiles (odds ratios (95% confidence intervals), 2.61 (1.07–6.39), p for trend = 0.025, and 2.40 (1.12–5.17), p for trend = 0.013, respectively). No significant associations were found between DR prevalence and monounsaturated or unsaturated fatty acid intake. These results suggest that a high intake of fat and SFA may affect the development of DR, even in individuals whose total fat intake is generally much lower than that of Westerners.

Abstract Objective: To assess dietary behaviours and related lifestyles according to the presence or absence of skipping breakfast. Design: We analysed the cross-sectional data from a baseline survey of a large-scale population-based cohort study in Japan conducted in 2011–2016. Participants provided information on dietary behaviours and lifestyles through a self-administered questionnaire. Skipping breakfast was defined as not eating breakfast at least once a week and was classified according to the frequency of skipping breakfast as 1–2, 3–4 or ≥5 times/week. Setting: Sixteen municipalities in seven prefectural areas across Japan under the Japan Public Health Centre-based prospective study for the Next Generation. Participants: 112 785 residents (51 952 males and 60 833 females) aged 40–74 years. Results: After adjustment for age, socio-demographic status, drinking status and smoking status, individuals who skipped breakfast at least once a week, compared with those who ate breakfast every day, were more likely to have adverse dietary behaviours such as frequent eating out (multivariable OR = 2·08, 95 % CI (1·96, 2·21) in males and 2·15, 95 % CI (1·99, 2·33) in females), frequent eating instant foods (1·89, 95 % CI (1·77, 2·01) in males and 1·72, 95 % CI (1·56, 1·89) in females). They had late bedtime (1·85, 95 % CI (1·75, 1·95) in males and 1·98, 95 % CI (1·86, 2·11) in females) and living alone (2·37, 95 % CI (2·17, 2·58) in males and 2·02, 95 % CI (1·83, 2·21) in females), using the logistic regression model. Conclusions: Both adult males and females who skipped breakfast were likely to eat out, to have a dietary habit of eating instant foods and have lifestyles such as late bedtime and living alone than those who ate breakfast.

Abstract INTRODUCTION Insufficient evidence exists on the sex‐specific associations of body mass index (BMI) and weight change through midlife with dementia incidence, especially in Asian populations. METHODS For 37,414 Japanese residents aged 40 to 59 years, BMIs at baseline (year 1990 or 1993) and 10‐year follow‐ups were obtained. Weight changes between baseline and 10‐year follow‐ups were determined. Disabling dementia incidence from 2006 to 2016 was ascertained using long‐term care insurance (LTCI) certifications. Hazard ratios (HRs) were computed. RESULTS Increased dementia risk was observed with obesity at baseline and with underweight at 10‐year follow‐ups. Weight loss after baseline was at greater risk than weight gain. No sex difference was observed. DISCUSSION In both sexes, obesity in midlife increased the risk of developing dementia with increasing impacts of weight loss after midlife. A healthy body weight throughout adulthood is beneficial for dementia prevention. Highlights Obesity in midlife is a risk factor for incident dementia. Weight loss is a bigger risk factor than weight gain in later midlife. Association of BMI and weight change in midlife with dementia does not vary by sex.

Background: Both short and long interpregnancy intervals (IPIs) have been associated with risk of preterm birth, but the evidence is limited in Asians. It is also uncertain whether the association is modified by dietary folate intake or folic acid supplementation during pregnancy. Thus, we examined associations between IPI and risk of preterm birth and effect modification of those associations by dietary intake of folate and supplementation with folic acid on the basis of a nationwide birth cohort study. Methods: Among 103,062 pregnancies registered in the Japan Environment and Children’s Study, 55,203 singleton live-birth pregnancies were included in the analysis. We calculated IPI using birth date, gestational age at birth of offspring, and birth data of the latest offspring. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the risk of preterm birth were estimated according to IPI categories. Results: Both

Background: Breastfeeding is said to prevent overweight and obesity in childhood but the evidence about its long-term impact on body size into adolescence and adulthood is scarce. We sought to examine the association between feeding types and subsequent physical size at the ages of 3, 6, 12, and 22 years. Methods: The Ibaraki Children’s Cohort (IBACHIL) Study, which began in 1992, involved a cohort of 4,592 Japanese children from 87 communities of a single prefecture whose parents answered health questionnaires about their child’s health and life habits at the age of 3 years. Follow-up questionnaires were distributed to the same cohort when they were 6, 12, and 22 years old. Self-reported height and weight, body mass index (BMI), and overweight status at ages of 3 (n = 4,290), 6 (n = 1,999; proportion of participants analyzed = 47%), 12 (n = 2,227; 52%), and 22 (n = 1,459; 34%) years were compared according to feeding type (breastfeeding, formula feeding, and mixed feeding) during infancy. Results: At the age of 3 years, multivariable adjusted-mean weight and prevalence of overweight were less for breastfed children than those formula-fed in both boys (weight: 14.6 kg vs 14.7 kg, P = 0.07, overweight: 6.3% vs 9.3%, P = 0.03) and in girls (14.0 kg vs 14.2 kg, P = 0.01 and 10.4% vs 13.6%, P = 0.06). However, there were no statistically significant differences in weight, BMI, and overweight at the ages of 6, 12, and 22 years according to feeding type. Conclusion: Breastfeeding may prevent overweight in childhood, but its impact is not significant in adolescence and adulthood.

Abstract Aims Evidence on the risk factors for incident heart failure in Asia has been limited. We sought to identify the risk factors for pre‐heart failure or symptomatic heart failure, based on N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP), in the Japanese general population. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study based on the Circulatory Risk in Communities Study involving 5335 Japanese individuals whose NT‐proBNP levels were measured between 2010 and 2015. Of these, 2768 people aged between 30 and 69 years who undertook annual cardiovascular risk surveys at least once between 1990 and 2000 were retrospectively eligible to be participants in this study. We performed multivariable logistic regression analyses to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of pre‐heart failure or symptomatic heart failure defined as NT‐proBNP >400 pg/mL or as having a diagnosis of heart failure and taking medication for heart failure for several cardiovascular risk factors (body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, total cholesterol, triglyceride, smoking status, drinking status). Results We identified 85 cases of heart failure. The multivariable ORs (95% CIs) were 5.70 (2.70–12.0) for body mass index of 27–29.9 kg/m2 and 5.91 (2.19–16.0) for ≥30 kg/m2 compared with 21–22.9 kg/m2; 2.49(1.01–6.13) for systolic blood pressure of ≥160 mmHg vs.

Background: Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is an established causative factor of gastric cancer. Although the expansion of insurance coverage has led to an increase in the number of patients treated for H. pylori, the population impact of eradication treatment for H. pylori has been scarcely investigated. This study aimed to clarify the long-term responses of H. pylori antibody titer after eradication treatment using large scale cross-sectional data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation (JPHC-NEXT Study). Methods: A total of 55,282 Japanese participants aged 40 to 74 years residing in 16 areas provided blood samples from 2011 through 2016. From these, treated (n = 6,276) and untreated subjects who were seropositive for H. pylori or had serological atrophy (n = 22,420) formed the study population (n = 28,696). Seropositivity was defined as an anti-H. pylori IgG titer of ≥10 U/mL. Antibody level was compared among subjects according to self-reported treatment history as untreated, and treated for less than 1 year (

Abstract Although a positive link between hypertension and intraocular pressure (IOP) has been suggested, the individual effects of systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP, respectively) on IOP remain unclear, particularly among Japanese populations. Here, we conducted a large-scale, cross-sectional study to determine individual and combined effects of SBP/DBP and hypertension on IOP. In total, 6783 Japanese people aged over 40 years underwent systemic and ophthalmological examinations, including measurements of blood pressure and IOP, conducted using non-contact tonometers. After adjusting for a priori known confounding factors, SBP and DBP levels were found to be positively correlated with IOP levels. The multivariable-adjusted odds ratio when comparing the hypertensive and normotensive groups for the prevalence of ocular hypertension was 1.88 (95% confidence interval, 1.14–3.08). When analysing the combined effects of SBP and DBP on ocular hypertension, SBP elevation had a greater effect on ocular hypertension than DBP increase. In conclusion, SBP and DBP levels and the prevalence of systemic hypertension were found to be positively associated with IOP levels and the prevalence of ocular hypertension in an ophthalmologically healthy Japanese population. Our findings suggest that systemic blood pressure control may be key for controlling IOP.

Abstract Circadian misalignments have been linked to adverse cardiometabolic outcomes. However, the association between irregular daily routine and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unknown. We examined this association in a prospective study in Japan. The study included 78,115 Japanese participants aged 45–74 years. The self-reported daily routine was evaluated using the question, ‘Is your daily routine or activity schedule regular?’ The response (yes/no) was obtained as a binary variable. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to estimate the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between an irregular daily routine and CVD incidence risk. Among the participants, 23.7% reported an irregular daily routine. During the mean follow-up period of 13.3 years, we observed 4641 CVD events. An irregular daily routine was significantly associated with increased risks of CVD and total stroke in women, but not in men. This positive association between an irregular daily routine and the risk of CVD was weak in the high vegetable and fruit consuming population. An irregular daily routine is positively associated with the risk of incident CVD, especially in women. These associations may be weak in populations that consume a diet rich in vegetables and fruits.

Background Aortic aneurysm rupture and acute aortic dissection are life‐threatening conditions and represent an ever‐growing public health challenge. Comprehensive epidemiologic investigations for their risk factors are scant. We aimed to investigate risk factors associated with mortality from aortic diseases through analysis of a community‐based Japanese cohort. Methods and Results IPHS (Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study) comprises 95 723 participants who took part in municipal health checkups in 1993. Factors considered for analysis included age, sex, body mass index, blood pressure, serum lipids (high‐density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol, non‐HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides), diabetes, antihypertensive and lipid‐lowering drug use, and smoking and drinking habits. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to evaluate the associations between these variables and mortality from aortic diseases. During the median 26‐year follow‐up, 190 participants died of aortic aneurysm rupture, and 188 died of aortic dissection. An increased multivariable hazard ratio (HR) for mortality from total aortic diseases was observed for high systolic blood pressure (1.61 [1.00–2.59]), diastolic blood pressure (2.95 [1.95–4.48]), high non‐HDL cholesterol (1.63 [1.19–2.24]), low HDL cholesterol (1.86 [1.29–2.68]), and heavy (>20 cigarettes/day) smoking habit (2.46 [1.66–3.63]). A lower multivariable HR was observed for diabetes (0.50 [0.28–0.89]). Conclusions Smoking habit, higher systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure levels, higher non‐HDL, and lower HDL cholesterol levels were positively associated with mortality from total aortic diseases, whereas diabetes was inversely associated.

Background: Although prevalence of low birth weight has increased in the last 3 decades in Japan, no studies in Japanese women have investigated whether birth weight is associated with the risk of pregnancy complications, such as pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Methods: We used data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation (JPHC-NEXT), a population-based cohort study in Japan that launched in 2011. In the main analysis, we included 46,365 women who had been pregnant at least once, for whom information on birth weight and events during their pregnancy was obtained using a self-administered questionnaire. Women were divided into five categories according to their birth weight, and the relationship between birth weight and risk of PIH and GDM was examined using multilevel logistic regression analyses with place of residence as a random effect. Results: Compared to women born with birth weight of 3,000–3,999 grams, the risk of PIH was significantly higher among women born

IntroductionAutoantibodies against inflammatory cytokines may be used for the prevention of atherosclerosis. Preclinical studies consider colony-stimulating factor 2 (CSF2) as an essential cytokine with a causal relationship to atherosclerosis and cancer. We examined the serum anti-CSF2 antibody levels in patients with atherosclerosis or solid cancer.MethodsWe measured the serum anti-CSF2 antibody levels via amplified luminescent proximity homogeneous assay-linked immunosorbent assay based on the recognition of recombinant glutathione S-transferase-fused CSF2 protein or a CSF2-derived peptide as the antigen.ResultsThe serum anti-CSF2 antibody (s-CSF2-Ab) levels were significantly higher in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), diabetes mellitus (DM), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) compared with healthy donors (HDs). In addition, the s-CSF2-Ab levels were associated with intima-media thickness and hypertension. The analyzes of samples obtained from a Japan Public Health Center-based prospective study suggested the utility of s-CSF2-Ab as a risk factor for AIS. Furthermore, the s-CSF2-Ab levels were higher in patients with esophageal, colorectal, gastric, and lung cancer than in HDs but not in those with mammary cancer. In addition, the s-CSF2-Ab levels were associated with unfavorable postoperative prognosis in colorectal cancer (CRC). In CRC, the s-CSF2-Ab levels were more closely associated with poor prognosis in patients with p53-Ab-negative CRC despite the lack of significant association of the anti-p53 antibody (p53-Ab) levels with the overall survival.ConclusionS-CSF2-Ab was useful for the diagnosis of atherosclerosis-related AIS, AMI, DM, and CKD and could discriminate poor prognosis, especially in p53-Ab-negative CRC.

Objectives: Nursing home terminations have increased worldwide due to rising costs, staffing shortages, and the coronavirus disease pandemic. However, little is known about the impact that business operating systems have on nursing home termination.Methods: This study used the National Long-term Care database, which comprised 7,842 operating nursing homes in January 2018. Nursing home termination was identified when nursing homes discontinued provision of long-term care services to all residents between January 2018 and December 2020. Business operating systems that were reimbursed by the LTC insurance system were the exposure of interest. The logistic regression model for nursing home termination included a series of organizational, internal, and external factors as covariates.Results: From 2018 to 2020, 83 (1.1%) nursing homes were terminated. The proportion of reimbursed nursing homes varied greatly depending on the type of business operating systems. Implementing physical function training and improving working conditions were significantly associated with a lower risk of nursing home termination.Conclusion: Financial incentives to several business operating systems are an effective way to build a sustainable environment for nursing homes to continue to exist.

Background This study was conducted to examine the impacts of coffee and green tea consumption on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality among people with severe hypertension. Methods and Results In the JACC (Japan Collaborative Cohort Study for Evaluation of Cancer Risk), 18 609 participants (6574 men and 12 035 women) aged 40 to 79 years at baseline who completed a lifestyle, diet, and medical history questionnaire, and health examinations, were followed up until 2009. We classified the participants into four blood pressure (BP) categories: optimal and normal BP, high‐normal BP, grade 1 hypertension, and grade 2–3 hypertension. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to calculate the multivariable hazard ratios with 95% CIs of CVD mortality. During the 18.9 years of median follow‐up, a total of 842 CVD deaths were documented. Coffee consumption was associated with an increased risk of CVD mortality among people with grade 2–3 hypertension; the multivariable hazard ratios (95% CI) of CVD mortality were 0.98 (0.67–1.43) for

Background and aims: Unhealthy eating behaviors, including eating fast, eating after satiety, skipping breakfast, and eating out are common among men aged 20–39 years. In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to examine the association between self-reported eating habits and the prevalence of dyslipidemia. Methods: The participants of this study were 38,233 men aged 20–39 years, whose food consumption frequency related information was collected through a questionnaire. Dyslipidemia was defined as total cholesterol (TC) ≥190 mg/dL, fasting triglyceride (TG) ≥150 mg/dL and non-fasting TG ≥175 mg/dL, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C)

Background: The association between overweight and chronic musculoskeletal pain may vary by anatomical site and be modified by hypertension status. This study examined the associations between overweight and low back and knee pains and their effect modification by hypertension status. Methods: We conducted a community-based cross-sectional study involving 2,845 adults (1,080 men and 1,765 women) aged 40–89 years. Chronic knee pain (CKP) and low back pain (CLBP) lasting more than 3 months were categorized into more or less severe pain. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the association between overweight and more or less severe CKP and CLBP were determined using logistic regression and stratified by hypertension status. Adjustment variables were age, sex, area, hypertension, smoking and drinking status, inactivity, job category, mental stress, depression, and overall CKP or CLBP. Results: Overall, 288 (10.1%) and 631 (22.2%) adults had more and less severe CKP, respectively, and 284 (10.0%) and 830 (29.2%) had more and less severe CLBP, respectively. Overweight was associated with overall CKP and more or less severe CKP, regardless of hypertension status. Overweight was not associated with overall CLBP; its association was more pronounced for more severe CLBP. The association between overweight and more severe CLBP was evident among non-hypertensives (multivariable OR 1.72; 95% CI, 1.09–2.71); however, that between overweight and less severe CLBP was not evident (multivariable OR 1.07; 95% CI, 0.73–1.56). Conclusions: As hypertension may attenuate the association between overweight and CLBP, we should consider hypertension status for proper management of CLBP among overweight individuals.

Abstract General population-based cohort studies provide solid evidence on mass Helicobacter pylori (HP) eradication effects. Self-reported questionnaires are occasionally used in such studies to ascertain the HP eradication history. However, reports on the reliability of these questionnaires are lacking. This general population-based cohort study included 899 individuals with HP infection at the baseline survey who were reported to have eradicated it at the 5-year follow-up survey. Of these, the medical records of 280 patients were available for investigation, and the HP eradication status of 93 individuals was ascertained. Their medical records were reviewed, and the reliability of the self-reported questionnaire responses was assessed. Of the 91 individuals who successfully eradicated HP based on the medical records, 90 (98.9%) answered the self-reported questionnaire correctly, with an unweighted kappa value of 0.661 (p

Abstract Tocopherols, strong antioxidants, may be useful in preventing dementia, but the epidemiological evidence is insufficient. We performed a community-based follow-up study of Japanese, the Circulatory Risk in Community Study, involving 3739 people aged 40–64 years at baseline (1985–1999). Incident disabling dementia was followed up from 1999 through 2020. For subtype analysis, we classified disabling dementia into that with and that without a history of stroke. Dietary intake of tocopherols (total, α, β, γ, and δ) were estimated using 24-h recall surveys. During a median follow-up of 19.7 years, 670 cases of disabling dementia developed. Total tocopherol intake was inversely associated with risk of disabling dementia with multivariable hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 0.79 (0.63–1.00) for the highest versus lowest quartiles of total tocopherol intake (P for trend = 0.05). However, the association was strengthened when further adjusted for α-linolenic acid intake (Spearman correlation with total tocopherol intake = 0.93), with multivariable hazard ratios of 0.50 (0.34–0.74) (P for trend = 0.001) but was weakened and nonsignificant when further adjusted for linoleic acid intake (Spearman correlation with total tocopherol intake = 0.92), with multivariable hazard ratios of 0.69 (0.47–1.01) (P for trend = 0.05). Similar but nonsignificant inverse associations were observed for α-, γ-, and δ-tocopherols but not for β-tocopherol. These results were similar regardless of the presence of a history of stroke. Dietary tocopherol intake was inversely associated with risk of disabling dementia, but its independent effect was uncertain owing to a high intercorrelation of α-linolenic linoleic acids with total tocopherol intake. Even with such confounding, a diet high in tocopherols may help prevent the onset of dementia.

Abstract Background Ischemic stroke, including transient ischemic attack (TIA) and acute-phase cerebral infarction (aCI), is a serious health problem in the aging society. Thus, this study aimed to identify TIA and aCI biomarkers. Methods In 19 patients with TIA, candidate antigens recognized by serum IgG autoantibodies were screened using a human aortic endothelial cell cDNA library. Through amplified luminescent proximity homogeneous assay-linked immunosorbent assay (AlphaLISA), serum antibody levels against the candidate antigens were examined in healthy donor (HD), TIA, and aCI cohorts (n = 285, 92, and 529). The plasma antibody levels in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Cohort Study (1991–1993) were also examined. Results The candidate antigens were aldolase A (ALDOA) and fumarate hydratase (FH). In AlphaLISA, patients with TIA or aCI had higher anti-ALDOA antibody (ALDOA-Ab) and anti-FH antibody (FH-Ab) levels than the HDs (P

Background: Whether dietary protein intake worsens renal function in the general population has been discussed but not yet determined. We aimed to examine the longitudinal association between dietary protein intake and risk of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD). Methods: We conducted a 12-year follow-up study with 3,277 Japanese adults (1,150 men and 2,127 women) aged 40–74 years, initially free from CKD, who participated in cardiovascular risk surveys from two Japanese communities under the Circulatory Risk in Communities Study. The development of CKD was defined by the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) during the follow-up period. Protein intake was measured at baseline by using the brief-type self-administered diet history questionnaire. We estimated sex-, age-, community- and multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for incident CKD were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards regression models according to quartiles of percentage of energy (%energy) from protein intake. Results: During 26,422 person-years of follow-up, 300 participants developed CKD (137 men and 163 women). The sex-, age-, and community-adjusted HR (95% confidence interval, CI) for the highest (≥16.9%energy) versus lowest (≤13.4%energy) quartiles of total protein intake was 0.66 (0.48–0.90), p for trend = 0.007. The multivariable HR (95%CI) was 0.72 (0.52–0.99), p for trend = 0.016 after further adjustment for body mass index, smoking status, alcohol drinking status, diastolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes mellitus, serum total cholesterol levels, cholesterol-lowering medication use, total energy intake, and baseline eGFR. The association did not vary by sex, age, and baseline eGFR. When examining animal and vegetable protein intake separately, the respective multivariable HRs (95%CIs) were 0.77 (0.56–1.08), p for trend = 0.036, and 1.24 (0.89–1.75), p for trend = 0.270. Conclusions: Higher protein intake, more specifically animal protein intake was associated with a lower risk of CKD.

Abstract Background Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is a serious cause of mortality and disability. AIS is a serious cause of mortality and disability. Early diagnosis of atherosclerosis, which is the major cause of AIS, allows therapeutic intervention before the onset, leading to prevention of AIS. Methods Serological identification by cDNA expression cDNA libraries and the protein array method were used for the screening of antigens recognized by serum IgG antibodies in patients with atherosclerosis. Recombinant proteins or synthetic peptides derived from candidate antigens were used as antigens to compare serum IgG levels between healthy donors (HDs) and patients with atherosclerosis-related disease using the amplified luminescent proximity homogeneous assay-linked immunosorbent assay. Results The first screening using the protein array method identified death-inducer obliterator 1 (DIDO1), forkhead box J2 (FOXJ2), and cleavage and polyadenylation specificity factor (CPSF2) as the target antigens of serum IgG antibodies in patients with AIS. Then, we prepared various antigens including glutathione S-transferase-fused DIDO1 protein as well as peptides of the amino acids 297–311 of DIDO1, 426–440 of FOXJ2, and 607–621 of CPSF2 to examine serum antibody levels. Compared with HDs, a significant increase in antibody levels of the DIDO1 protein and peptide in patients with AIS, transient ischemic attack (TIA), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) but not in those with acute myocardial infarction and diabetes mellitus (DM). Serum anti-FOXJ2 antibody levels were elevated in most patients with atherosclerosis-related diseases, whereas serum anti-CPSF2 antibody levels were associated with AIS, TIA, and DM. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that serum DIDO1 antibody levels were highly associated with CKD, and correlation analysis revealed that serum anti-FOXJ2 antibody levels were associated with hypertension. A prospective case–control study on ischemic stroke verified that the serum antibody levels of the DIDO1 protein and DIDO1, FOXJ2, and CPSF2 peptides showed significantly higher odds ratios with a risk of AIS in patients with the highest quartile than in those with the lowest quartile, indicating that these antibody markers are useful as risk factors for AIS. Conclusions Serum antibody levels of DIDO1, FOXJ2, and CPSF2 are useful in predicting the onset of atherosclerosis-related AIS caused by kidney failure, hypertension, and DM, respectively.

Abstract Atherosclerosis has been considered as the main cause of morbidity, mortality, and disability worldwide. The first screening for antigen markers was conducted using the serological identification of antigens by recombinant cDNA expression cloning, which has identified adaptor-related protein complex 3 subunit delta 1 (AP3D1) as an antigen recognized by serum IgG antibodies of patients with atherosclerosis. Serum antibody levels were examined using the amplified luminescent proximity homogeneous assay-linked immunosorbent assay (AlphaLISA) using a recombinant protein as an antigen. It was determined that the serum antibody levels against AP3D1 were higher in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS), transient ischemic attack, diabetes mellitus (DM), cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease (CKD), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and colorectal carcinoma than those in the healthy donors. The area under the curve values of DM, nephrosclerosis type of CKD, and ESCC calculated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were higher than those of other diseases. Correlation analysis showed that the anti-AP3D1 antibody levels were highly associated with maximum intima-media thickness, which indicates that this marker reflected the development of atherosclerosis. The results of the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study indicated that this antibody marker is deemed useful as risk factors for AIS.

Abstract Little is known about the risk of cerebrovascular disease in cancer survivors. We aimed to assess the association between incident cancer and the subsequent risk of stroke using a large-scale, population-based prospective study. 74,530 Japanese aged between 40 and 69 years at baseline study were matched by the status of cancer diagnosis during follow-up using propensity score nearest-neighbor matching with allowance for replacement. A total of 2242 strokes were reported during 557,885 person-years of follow-up. Associations between incident cancer and the subsequent risk of all strokes, cerebral infarction, and intracerebral hemorrhage were assessed using a Cox proportional hazards model stratified on the propensity score-matched pairs. No significant association was observed between the status of cancer diagnosis of all types, gastric, colorectal and lung cancer, and subsequent occurrence of all strokes, cerebral infarction, and intracerebral hemorrhage. However, analysis by discrete time periods suggested an elevated risk in cancer patients for one to three months after a cancer diagnosis in all stroke (HR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.06, 4.74) and cerebral infarction (HR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.05, 6.53). This prospective cohort study found no association between the status of cancer diagnosis and the subsequent occurrence of all strokes and its subtypes during the entire follow-up period but suggested an increase in stroke risk during the active phase of malignancy.

Abstract This population-based cross-sectional study was performed to determine the mean corneal endothelial cell density (ECD), coefficient of variation (CV), and hexagonality (HEX), and their associations with myopia in Japanese adults living in Chikusei city. Of 7109 participants with available data, 5713 (2331 male and 3382 female) participants were eligible for analysis. After assessing the relationship between participant characteristics and spherical equivalent refraction (SER), the association of SER with the abnormal value of ECD (

Background: The frequency of laughter has been associated with cardiovascular disease and related biomarkers, but no previous studies have examined association between laughter and changes in blood pressure levels. We sought to identify temporal relationships between frequency of laughter in daily life and systolic and diastolic blood pressure changes in participants from 2010 through 2014. Methods: Participants were 554 men and 887 women aged 40–74 years who answered self-administered questionnaire quantifying frequency of laughter at baseline. We measured participant blood pressure levels twice using automated sphygmomanometers for each year from 2010 to 2014. The associations between laughter and changes in blood pressure over time were analyzed using linear mixed-effect models. Results: There was no significant difference in blood pressure according to frequency of laughter at baseline in either sex. Men with frequency of laughter 1 to 3 per month or almost never had significantly increased systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels over the 4-year period (time-dependent difference: 0.96 mm Hg (95% confidence interval [CI], −0.2 to 1.8; P = 0.05). Changes in blood pressure associated with infrequent laughter (ie, 1 to 3 per month or almost never) were evident in men without antihypertensive medication use over 4 years (0.94 mm Hg; 95% CI, −0.2 to 2.0; P = 0.09) and men who were current drinkers at baseline (1.29 mm Hg; 95% CI, −0.1 to 2.3; P = 0.04). No significant difference was found between frequency of laughter and systolic (0.23 mm Hg; 95% CI, −1.0 to 1.5; P = 0.72) and diastolic (−0.07 mm Hg; 95% CI, −0.8 to 0.7; P = 0.86) blood pressure changes in women. Conclusions: Infrequent laughter was associated with long-term blood pressure increment among middle-aged men.

Abstract Background This study aimed to describe the status of alcohol consumption and drug use among young adults as well as their determinants. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study of 356 young adults (aged 18 to 24 years) living in Palau in 2013. The prevalence of self-reported alcohol and marijuana usage were compared within and between sexes, age groups, ethnicities, and education levels. Results The proportion of current drinking was higher in people aged 21–24 than in those aged 18–20 (73.2% vs. 60.9%, p = 0.09 in men and 48.3% vs. 30.0%, p = 0.02 in women), while that of marijuana use did not differ between the age groups. The proportions of current drinking and marijuana use were higher in Palauan than in other ethnicities (current drinking: 70.6% vs. 40.6%, p = 0.005 in men and 38.8% vs. 16.6%, p = 0.04 in women; lifetime marijuana use: 80.0% vs. 52.9%, p = 0.02 in men and 56.1% vs. 30.6%, p = 0.09 in women). The proportion of frequent (3 times or more) marijuana users was higher for the lower educated than for the higher educated (62.5% vs. 32.1%, p < 0.001 in men and 33.9% vs. 24.4%, p = 0.12 in women). Conclusions Sex, age, ethnicity, and education were significant determinants of alcohol and marijuana use.

Abstract To clarify how low BMI and weight loss were associated with risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality, in a large prospective cohort of the general population across Japan, the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study, conducted between 1988 and 2009. A total of 45,837 male residents were observed for a median period of 19.1 years. Self-administered questionnaires, collecting information on BMI, weight loss since the age of 20, lifestyles, history of diseases, as well as records of COPD mortality, were analysed at 2019. During follow-up, 268 participants died from COPD. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of COPD mortality associated with a 1-SD increment of body mass index (BMI) was 0.48 (0.41–0.57), while for weight change from age of 20 (+ 2.0 kg) it was 0.63 (0.59–0.68). These associations were persistently observed after stratifications with smoking status, excluding those having airway symptoms in the baseline survey, and excluding early COPD deaths within 5, 10 and 15 years. Our study suggests that BMI and weight change since the age of 20 could be markers for COPD prognosis, indicated by risk of COPD mortality.

Background: Alcohol consumption is a prevalent behavior that is bi-directionally related to the risk of type 2 diabetes. However, the effect of daily alcohol consumption on glucose levels in real-world situations in the general population has not been well elucidated. This study aimed to clarify the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-day and time-specific glucose levels among non-diabetic individuals. Methods: We investigated 913 non-diabetic males and females, aged 40–69 years, during 2018–2020 from four communities across Japan. The daily alcohol consumption was assessed using a self-report questionnaire. All-day and time-specific average glucose levels were estimated from the interstitial glucose concentrations measured using the Flash glucose monitoring system for a median duration of 13 days. Furthermore, we investigated the association between all-day and time-specific average glucose levels and habitual daily alcohol consumption levels, using never drinkers as the reference, and performed multiple linear regression analyses after adjusting for age, community, and other diabetes risk factors for males and females separately. Results: All-day average glucose levels did not vary according to alcohol consumption categories in both males and females. However, for males, the average glucose levels between 5:00 and 11:00 h and between 11:00 and 17:00 h were higher in moderate and heavy drinkers than in never drinkers, with the difference values of 4.6 and 4.7 mg/dL for moderate drinkers, and 5.7 and 6.8 mg/dL for heavy drinkers. Conversely, the average glucose levels between 17:00 and 24:00 h were lower in male moderate and heavy drinkers and female current drinkers than in never drinkers; the difference values of mean glucose levels were −5.8 for moderate drinkers, and −6.1 mg/dL for heavy drinkers in males and −2.7 mg/dL for female current drinkers. Conclusions: Alcohol consumption was associated with glucose levels in a time-dependent biphasic pattern.

Background: Sex- and age-specific impacts of cardiovascular risk factors on the development of dementia have not been well evaluated. We investigated these impacts of smoking, overweight/obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus on the risk of disabling dementia. Methods: The study participants were 25,029 (10,134 men and 14,895 women) Japanese aged 40–74 years without disabling dementia at baseline (2008–2013). They were assessed on smoking status (non-current or current), overweight/obesity (body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 and ≥30 kg/m2, respectively), hypertension (systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg or any antihypertensive medication use), and diabetes mellitus (a fasting serum glucose ≥126 mg/dL, non-fasting glucose ≥200 mg/dL, hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5% by the National Glycohemoglobin Standardization Program or glucose-lowering medication use) at baseline. Disabling dementia was identified as the level of care required ≥1 and cognitive disability grade ≥IIa according to the National Long-term Care Insurance Database. We used a Cox proportional regression model to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of disabling dementia according to the cardiovascular risk factors and calculated the population attributable fractions (PAFs). Results: During a median follow-up of 9.1 years, 1,322 (606 men and 716 women) developed disabling dementia. Current smoking and hypertension were associated with a higher risk of disabling dementia in both sexes, whereas overweight or obesity was not associated with the risk in either sex. Diabetes mellitus was associated with a higher risk only in women (p for sex interaction = 0.04). The significant PAFs were 13% for smoking and 14% for hypertension in men and 3% for smoking, 12% for hypertension, and 5% for diabetes mellitus in women. The total PAFs of the significant risk factors were 28% in men and 20% in women. When stratified by age, hypertension in midlife (40–64 years) was associated with the increased risk in men, while diabetes mellitus in later-life (65–74 years) was so in women. Conclusions: A substantial burden of disabling dementia was attributable to smoking, and hypertension in both sexes and diabetes mellitus in women, which may require the management of these cardiovascular risk factors to prevent dementia.

Background: Previous cardiovascular risk prediction models in Japan have utilized prospective cohort studies with concise data. As the health information including health check-up records and administrative claims becomes digitalized and publicly available, application of large datasets based on such real-world data can achieve prediction accuracy and support social implementation of cardiovascular disease risk prediction models in preventive and clinical practice. In this study, classical regression and machine learning methods were explored to develop ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke prognostic models using real-world data. Methods: IQVIA Japan Claims Database was searched to include 691,160 individuals (predominantly corporate employees and their families working in secondary and tertiary industries) with at least one annual health check-up record during the identification period (April 2013–December 2018). The primary outcome of the study was the first recorded IHD or stroke event. Predictors were annual health check-up records at the index year-month, comprising demographic characteristics, laboratory tests, and questionnaire features. Four prediction models (Cox, Elnet-Cox, XGBoost, and Ensemble) were assessed in the present study to develop a cardiovascular disease risk prediction model for Japan. Results: The analysis cohort consisted of 572,971 invididuals. All prediction models showed similarly good performance. The Harrell’s C-index was close to 0.9 for all IHD models, and above 0.7 for stroke models. In IHD models, age, sex, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure had higher importance, while in stroke models systolic blood pressure and age had higher importance. Conclusion: Our study analyzed classical regression and machine learning algorithms to develop cardiovascular disease risk prediction models for IHD and stroke in Japan that can be applied to practical use in a large population with predictive accuracy.

Background: Few prospective studies have investigated the association between paternal occupational exposures and risk of infant congenital heart defects (CHDs). We investigated the associations between paternal occupational exposures, frequency of use, and concurrent or sequential exposure to a mixture of compounds and the risk of infant CHDs. Methods: Our study examined 28,866 participants in the Japan Environment and Children’s Study. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with paternal occupational exposures during the 3 months until pregnancy was noticed after adjustment for potential confounding factors of the infant CHDs. CHD diagnosis was ascertained from medical record. Results: In total, 175 were diagnosed with infant CHDs. The number of fathers who were exposed to the following substances at least once a month were: 11,533 for photo copying machine/laser printer, 10,326 for permanent marker, 8,226 for soluble paint/inkjet printer, 6,188 for kerosene/petroleum/benzene/gasoline, 4,173 for organic solvents, 3,433 for chlorine bleach/germicide, 2,962 for engine oil, 2,931 for insecticide, 2,460 for medical sterilizing disinfectant, 1,786 for welding fumes, 1,614 for dyestuffs, 1,247 for any products containing lead-like solder, 986 for herbicide, 919 for radiation/radioactive substances/isotopes, 837 for lead-free solder, 341 for microbes, 319 for formalin/formaldehyde, 301 for agricultural chemical not listed above or unidentified, 196 for general anesthetic for surgery at hospital, 171 for anti-cancer drug, 147 for chromium/arsenic/cadmium, 88 for mercury and 833 for other chemical substances. Paternal occupational exposure regularly to photo copying machine or laser printer and soluble paint/inkjet printer were associated with higher risks of infant CHDs: the adjusted ORs (95%CIs) were 1.38 (1.00–1.91) and 1.60 (1.08–2.37), respectively. The higher risks were also observed for occasional exposure to engine oil, any products containing lead-like solder lead-free solder, and microbes; the adjusted ORs (95%CIs) were 1.68 (1.02–2.77), 2.03 (1.06–3.88), 3.45 (1.85–6.43), and 4.51, (1.63–12.49), respectively. Conclusions: Periconceptional paternal occupational exposure was associated with a higher risk of infant CHDs. Further studies using biomarkers of the association between paternal occupational exposure and infant CHDs are warranted.

Summary: Background: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329–403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.

Background: Few studies examining the impact for women of employment status on health have considered domestic duties and responsibilities as well as household socioeconomic conditions. Moreover, to our knowledge, no studies have explored the influence of work-family conflict on the association between employment status and health. This research aimed to investigate the cross-sectional associations between employment status (regular employee, non-regular employee, or self-employed) with self-rated health among Japanese middle-aged working women. Methods: Self-report data were obtained from 21,450 working women aged 40–59 years enrolled in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation (JPHC-NEXT Study) in 2011–2016. Multivariate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for poor self-rated health (‘poor’ or ‘not very good’) by employment status. Sub-group analyses by household income and marital status, as well as mediation analysis for work-family conflict, were also conducted. Results: Adjusted ORs for the poor self-rated health of non-regular employees and self-employed workers were 0.90 (95% CI, 0.83–0.98) and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.75–0.94), respectively, compared with regular employees. The identified association of non-regular employment was explained by work-family conflict. Subgroup analysis indicated no statistically significant modifying effects by household income and marital status. Conclusion: Among middle-aged working Japanese women, employment status was associated with self-rated health; non-regular employees and self-employed workers were less likely to report poor self-rated health, compared with regular employees. Lowered OR of poor self-rated health among non-regular employees may be explained by their reduced work-family conflict.

Background: Lifestyle and life-environment factors have undergone drastic changes in Japan over the last few decades. Further, many molecular epidemiologic studies have reported that genetic, epigenetic, and other biomarker information may be useful in predicting individual disease risk. Methods: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation (JPHC-NEXT) was launched in 2011 to identify risk factors for lifestyle-related disease, elucidate factors that extend healthy life expectancy, and contribute toward personalized healthcare based on our more than 20 years’ experience with the JPHC Study. From 2011 through 2016, a baseline survey was conducted at 16 municipalities in seven prefectures across the country. A self-administered questionnaire was distributed to all registered residents aged 40–74, which mainly asked about lifestyle factors, such as socio-demographic situation, personal medical history, smoking, alcohol and dietary habits. We obtained informed consent from each participant to participate in this long follow-up study of at least 20 years, including consent to the potential use of their residence registry, medical records, medical fee receipts, care insurance etc., and to the provision of biospecimens (blood and urine), including genomic analysis. Results: As of December 31, 2016, we have established a population-based cohort of 115,385 persons (Response rate 44.1%), among whom 55,278 (47.9% of participants) have provided blood and urine samples. The participation rate was slightly higher among females and in the older age group. Conclusion: We have established a large-scale population-based cohort for next-generation epidemiological study in Japan.

Background: Few studies have investigated the effects of Okinawan vegetable consumption on the risk of incident stroke and coronary heart disease. This study aimed to examine associations of vegetable, fruit, and Okinawan vegetable consumption with risk of incident stroke and coronary heart disease in the Japanese population of Okinawa. Methods: The study design was a prospective cohort study. During 1995–1998, a validated food frequency questionnaire was administered in two study areas to 16,498 participants aged 45–74 years. In 217,467 person-years of follow-up until the end of 2012, a total of 839 stroke cases and 197 coronary heart disease cases were identified. Results: No statistically significant association between total Okinawan vegetable consumption and risk of stroke and coronary heart disease was obtained: the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for the highest versus lowest tertile of consumption were 1.09 (95% confidence interval, 0.93–1.29; P for trend = 0.289) in model 2. Total vegetable and fruit and specific Okinawan vegetable consumption were also not statistically significantly associated with risk of cardiovascular outcomes. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that consumption of total vegetable and fruit, total Okinawan vegetables, and specific Okinawan vegetables in Japanese residents of Okinawa was not associated with risk of incident stroke and coronary heart disease.

Introduction: Chronic low back pain (CLBP), defined as low back pain persisting for at least 3 months, leads to limitations in the activities of daily living and decreased quality of life. Individualized self-exercise education could be a preferable treatment option, especially in community-dwelling people with CLBP. Previous studies, however, did not directly compare the effects of therapist-led self-exercise education and material-only education, and there are only a few studies investigating the effects of low-dose (comprising a few sessions) self-exercise education on CLBP. We present a protocol of community-based, randomized study to evaluate the effects of low-dose (comprising a few sessions), therapist-led self-exercise education on CLBP. Methods: Forty-eight participants with CLBP (men and women, aged 40-74 years) will be allocated to therapeutic self-exercise education programs, either a therapist-led group (2-week therapist's consultation and material use) or material-only group (material use only), in a randomized controlled trial. Pain intensity (NRS, numeric rating scale), pain disability (RDQ, Roland-Morris disability questionnaire), pain self-efficacy (PSEQ, pain self-efficacy questionnaire), and quality of life score (EQ-5D, European quality of life-5 dimensions) will be measured at baseline and at 4, 12, and 24 weeks. We will apply a repeated-measures design with mixed-effect models to estimate group differences from the baseline. Ethics/Trial registration number: The protocol was approved by the Ethics Committees of the Osaka Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease Prevention and Osaka University. The trial registration number is registered on the University Hospital Medical Information Network (UMIN000024537).

Background: The association of body mass index (BMI) with risks of ischemic stroke subtypes have not been established. Methods: Cumulative average BMI was calculated using self-reported body weight and height obtained from baseline (Cohort I in 1990, and Cohort II from 1993–1994) and 5- and 10-year questionnaire surveys of Japan Public Health Center-based prospective (JPHC) study. A total of 42,343 men and 46,413 women aged 40–69 years were followed-up for the incidence of lacunar, large-artery occlusive, and cardioembolic strokes. A sub-distribution hazard model was used to estimate sub-distribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: During a median of 20.0 years of follow-up, we documented 809 and 481 lacunar, 395 and 218 large-artery occlusive, and 568 and 298 cardioembolic strokes in men and women, respectively. After adjustment for baseline age, updated smoking, alcohol consumption, leisure-time physical activity, and histories of hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus, cumulative average BMI was positively linearly associated with lacunar (trend P = 0.007), large-artery occlusive (trend P = 0.002), and cardioembolic (trend P < 0.001) strokes in men, and with lacunar (trend P < 0.001) and large-artery occlusive (trend P = 0.003) strokes in women. There were approximately two-fold excess risk of cardioembolic stroke in both sexes and of lacunar and large-artery occlusive strokes in women for cumulative average BMI ≥30 kg/m2 compared to BMI 23–

Background: The association between daily walking and pneumonia mortality, stratified by the presence of disease conditions, such as myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke, was investigated. Methods: The study participants were 22,280 Japanese individuals (9,067 men and 13,213 women) aged 65–79 years. Inverse propensity weighted competing risk model was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for pneumonia mortality. Results: After a median of 11.9 years of follow-up, 1,203 participants died of pneumonia. Participants who did not have a history of MI or stroke and who walked for 1 hour/day or more were less likely to die from pneumonia (HR 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82–0.98) than those walked for 0.5 hours/day. A similar inverse association of pneumonia and walking (0.5 hours/day) was observed among participants with a history of MI (HR 0.66; 95% CI, 0.48–0.90). Among the participants with a history of stroke, those who walked for 0.6–0.9 hours/day were less likely to die because of pneumonia (HR 0.65; 95% CI, 0.43–0.98). Conclusions: Regular walking for ≥1 hour/day may reduce the risk of pneumonia mortality in elderly individuals with or without cardiovascular disease history.

The Circulatory Risk in Communities Study (CIRCS) is an ongoing community-based epidemiological study of lifestyle-related disease involving dynamic prospective cohorts of approximately 12,000 adults from five communities of Japan: Ikawa, Ishizawa and Kita-Utetsu (Akita Prefecture), Minami-Takayasu (Osaka Prefecture), Noichi (Kochi Prefecture), and Kyowa (Ibaraki Prefecture). One of the most notable features of CIRCS is that it is not only an observational cohort study to identify risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), such as stroke, coronary heart disease, and sudden cardiac death, but it also involves prevention programs for CVD. Using basic, clinical, epidemiological, and statistical techniques, CIRCS has clarified characteristics of CVD and the related risk factors to develop specific methodologies towards CVD prevention in Japanese middle-aged or older adults for more than half a century.

Abstract Risk factors for hypertension consist of lifestyle and genetic factors. Family history and twin studies have yielded heritability estimates of BP in the range of 34–67%. The most recent paper of BP GWAS has explained about 20% of the population variation of BP. An overestimation of heritability may have occurred in twin studies due to violations of shared environment assumptions, poor phenotyping practices in control cohorts, failure to account for epistasis, gene-gene and gene-environment interactions, and other non-genetic sources of phenotype modulation that are suspected to lead to underestimations of heritability in GWAS. The recommendations of hypertension guidelines in major countries consist of the following elements: weight reduction, a healthy diet, dietary sodium reduction, increasing physical activity, quitting smoking, and moderate alcohol consumption. The hypertension guidelines are mostly the same for each country or region, beyond race and culture. In this review, we summarize gene-environmental interactions associated with hypertension by describing lifestyle modifications according to the hypertension guidelines. In the era of precision medicine, clinicians who are responsible for hypertension management should consider the gene-environment interactions along with the appropriate lifestyle components toward the prevention and treatment of hypertension. We briefly reviewed the interaction of genetic and environmental factors along the constituent elements of hypertension guidelines, but a sufficient amount of evidence has not yet accumulated, and the results of genetic factors often differed in each study.

Using Food Frequency Questionnaires (FFQs) to compare dietary references for screening has been in high demand. However, FFQs have been widely used for ranking individuals in a population based on their dietary intake. We determined the validity of sodium (salt equivalent) intake, potassium intake, and sodium-to-potassium (Na/K) ratio obtained using the FFQ for identifying individuals who deviated from the dietary reference intakes (DRIs) measured using multiple 24-h urinary excretion measurements or 12-day weighed food records (WFR). This study included 235 middle-aged subjects. The correlation coefficients (CCs) between the FFQ and WFR estimates were mostly moderate (0.24–0.54); the CCs between the FFQ and 24-h urinary excretion measurements were low or moderate (0.26–0.38). Values of area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) at the point of DRIs for salt equivalent or potassium were >0.7 with the WFR as the reference standard and 0.60–0.76 with the 24-h urinary excretion as the reference standard. Using both standard measures, the AUC for the Na/K ratio was

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) measures (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and albuminuria) are frequently assessed in clinical practice and improve the prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet most major clinical guidelines do not have a standardized approach for incorporating these measures into CVD risk prediction. “CKD Patch” is a validated method to calibrate and improve the predicted risk from established equations according to CKD measures. Methods: Utilizing data from 4,143,535 adults from 35 datasets, we developed several “CKD Patches” incorporating eGFR and albuminuria, to enhance prediction of risk of atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) and CVD mortality by Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The risk enhancement by CKD Patch was determined by the deviation between individual CKD measures and the values expected from their traditional CVD risk factors and the hazard ratios for eGFR and albuminuria. We then validated this approach among 4,932,824 adults from 37 independent datasets, comparing the original PCE and SCORE equations (recalibrated in each dataset) to those with addition of CKD Patch. Findings: We confirmed the prediction improvement with the CKD Patch for CVD mortality beyond SCORE and ASCVD beyond PCE in validation datasets (Δc-statistic 0.027 [95% CI 0.018–0.036] and 0.010 [0.007–0.013] and categorical net reclassification improvement 0.080 [0.032–0.127] and 0.056 [0.044–0.067], respectively). The median (IQI) of the ratio of predicted risk for CVD mortality with CKD Patch vs. the original prediction with SCORE was 2.64 (1.89–3.40) in very high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 30–44 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria ≥30 mg/g), 1.86 (1.48–2.44) in high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 45–59 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria 30–299 mg/g), and 1.37 (1.14–1.69) in moderate risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 60–89 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria 30–299 mg/g), indicating considerable risk underestimation in CKD with SCORE. The corresponding estimates for ASCVD with PCE were 1.55 (1.37–1.81), 1.24 (1.10–1.54), and 1.21 (0.98–1.46). Interpretation: The “CKD Patch” can be used to quantitatively enhance ASCVD and CVD mortality risk prediction equations recommended in major US and European guidelines according to CKD measures, when available. Funding: US National Kidney Foundation and the NIDDK.