Search

The adverse impacts of extreme heat on human health when a concurrent daytime and nighttime heatwave (CDNHW) occurs are greater than when daytime or nighttime heatwaves occur individually, because of the reduced recovery time from heat exposure. This study projects increases in CDNHW over the whole of East Asia under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5). The daily maximum and minimum temperatures, which are used to define a CDNHW, are calculated of 3‐hourly temperatures of 25 km horizontal resolution produced by 12 general circulation model and regional climate model chains participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment East Asia phase 2 project. In Historical simulation (1981–2005), occurrence period and occurrence rate of CDNHW from April to September area‐averaged in East Asia are 10.9 days and 0.9%, respectively. In projections for the future (2071–2100), occurrence period and occurrence rate of CDNHW will be 3 weeks and 3.7% (RCP2.6), 2 months and 20.5% (RCP8.5), 2 months and 15.6% (SSP1‐2.6), and 3 months and 45.7% (SSP5‐8.5). In addition, it is expected that the CDNHW intensity will increase, and the spatial extent of CDNHW will be extended. Although a CDNHW lasting less than 3 days is the most common, the proportion of CDNHWs lasting more than 10 days, compared to the total CDNHW frequency, will increase to 1.2% (RCP2.6), 7.2% (RCP8.5), 6.1% (SSP1‐2.6), and 17.3% (SSP5‐8.5) from 0.2% (Historical). Both occurrence rate and intensity of CDNHW will increase to a relatively large extent in Indochina, East and West China, and India. If the current greenhouse gas emissions continue, East Asia will experience unprecedented heat stress because the frequency and intensity of CDNHWs, which rarely occur during present‐day, will increase significantly over all regions by the end of the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the cloud feedback (CFB) process remains a critical challenge for climate projection. While previous studies have mainly focused on the globe, the tropics, or the Southern Ocean, this study analyzes the long-term CFB over East Asia (EA) using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and radiative kernels newly developed. We find that the overall CFBs over EA act to amplify warming in an annual scale, with mean values of 0.66 ± 0.47 and 0.63 ± 0.39 W m−2 K−1 for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, although remarkable seasonal discrepancies. There are two distinct subregions: the positive center over the East Asian monsoon region, primarily due to the significant reduction in low cloud cover; the negative center over the Tibet Plateau, largely owing to the reduced high cloud cover and the ice-to-liquid conversion of cloud phase. Furthermore, the CFB over EA changes from negative to positive in the early 1980s, and then enhance at a rate faster than the global average until the early years of the twenty-first century, which may be linked with the weakening and subsequent recovery of the East Asian summer monsoon. Generally, inter-kernel uncertainty is markedly smaller than inter-model uncertainty; however, in regional scale, inter-kernel uncertainty is larger and inter-model uncertainty is smaller than those in the global scale. This feature implies that ignoring inter-kernel uncertainty may bring additional errors to regional CFB quantification. Notably, these results are comparable between the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, suggesting that CFB processes may be insensitive to emission scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a natural aerosol with the largest emissions on land, dust has important impacts on the atmospheric environment and climate systems. Both the emissions and transport of dust aerosols are tightly connected to meteorological conditions and as a result are confronted with strong modulations by the changing climate. Here, we project the changes in the global dust emissions and loading by the end of the 21st century, using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Based on the validations against site-level observations, we select 9 out of 14 models and estimate an ensemble global dust emissions of 2566 ± 1996 Tga-1 (1 Tg = 10 12 g) for the present day, in which 68 % is dry deposited and 31 % is wet deposited. Compared to 2005–2014, global dust emissions show varied responses, with a reduction of - 5.6 ± 503 Tga-1 under the SSP3–7.0 scenario but increased emissions up to 60.7 ± 542 Tga-1 under the SSP5–8.5 scenario at 2090–2099. For all scenarios, the most significant increase in the dust emissions appears in North Africa (0.6 %–5.6 %) due to the combined effects of reduced precipitation but strengthened surface wind. In contrast, all scenarios show decreased emissions in the Taklimakan and Gobi deserts (- 0.8 % to - 11.9 %) because of the increased precipitation but decreased wind speed on a regional scale. The dust loading shows uniform increases over North Africa (1.6 %–13.5 %) and the downwind Atlantic, following the increased emissions but decreases over East Asia (- 1.3 % to - 10.5 %), and the downwind Pacific, partly due to enhanced local precipitation that promotes wet deposition. In total, global dust loading will increase by 2.0 %–12.5 % at the end of the 21st century under different climate scenarios, suggesting a likelihood of strengthened radiative and climatic perturbations by dust aerosols in a warmer climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the advent of the 21st century, with the promulgation of landscape laws and related landscape management regulations, city color, as a vital component of the urban landscape, has garnered increasing attention. In East Asia, numerous cities have embraced city color planning as a means to enhance their urban landscape and shape the distinctive features of the city. Therefore, this study focuses on exploring the characteristics of city color planning systems in East Asia by adopting qualitative analysis methods, using Tokyo, Seoul, and Beijing as case study examples. We used publications, academic research, and official documents clustered into seven domains to identify the following: government agency, introduction time, relevant laws, upper plan, tools/management, planning method, and planning contents. The results revealed that compared with Europe, city color planning in East Asia is government-led top-down planning, and there are remarkable similarities in the formulation process, planning methods, and color selection, while there are obvious deficiencies in the professionalism of the planning authorities and public participation. The results of this study provide a valuable reference for city color planning in the future, thereby enhancing the urban landscape and shaping unique city identities in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on 20 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this article explored possible reasons for differences in simulation biases and projected changes in precipitation in northern China among the all-model ensemble (AMME), "highest-ranked" model ensemble (BMME), and "lowest-ranked" model ensemble (WMME), from the perspective of atmospheric circulations and moisture budgets. The results show that the BMME and AMME reproduce the East Asian winter circulations better than the WMME. Compared with the AMME and WMME, the BMME reduces the overestimation of evaporation, thereby improving the simulation of winter precipitation. The three ensemble simulated biases for the East Asian summer circulations are generally similar, characterized by a stronger zonal pressure gradient between the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and East Asia and a northward displacement of the East Asian westerly jet. However, the simulated vertical moisture advection is improved in the BMME, contributing to the slightly higher performance of the BMME than the AMME and WMME on summer precipitation in North and Northeast China. Compared to the AMME and WMME, the BMME projects larger increases in precipitation in northern China during both seasons by the end of the 21st century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5). One of the reasons is that the increase in evaporation projected by the BMME is larger. The projection of a greater dynamic contribution by the BMME also plays a role. In addition, larger changes in the nonlinear components in the BMME projection contribute to a larger increase in winter precipitation in northern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the Kamchatka Peninsula in the Russian Far East, 405 glaciers with an estimated total mass of 49 Gt were reported in the 1970s. These have been retreating at an accelerated rate since the start of the 21st century. Because glacier studies in this region are scarce, ice loss and its influence on sea level rise and regional environments is poorly understood. In this study, we analyzed satellite data to quantify glacier mass change from 2000 to 2016 in six major glacier-covered regions on the peninsula. The mean rate of the glacier mass change over the study period was −0.46 ± 0.01 m w.e. a−1 (total mass change was −4.9 ± 0.1 Gt, −304.2 ± 9.1 Mt a−1), which is slightly lower than other regions in mid-latitude and subarctic zones. The mass loss accelerated from >−0.33 ± 0.02 m w.e. a−1 in the period 2000–2006/2010 to <−1.65 ± 0.12 m w.e. a−1 in 2006/2010–2015/16. The increase in mass loss is attributed to a rise in average decadal summer temperatures observed in the region (+0.68°C from 1987–99 to 2000–13). Moreover, a recent trend in Pacific decadal oscillation suggests future acceleration of mass loss due to a decline in winter precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing population size and economic dependence on the coastal zone, coupled with the growing need for residential, agricultural, industrial, commercial and green space infrastructure, are key drivers of land reclamation. Until now, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the global distribution of land use on reclaimed space at the coast. Here, we analyze Landsat satellite imagery from 2000 to 2020 to quantify the spatial extent, scale, and land use of urban coastal reclamation for 135 cities with populations in excess of 1 million. Findings indicate that 78% (106/135) of these major coastal cities have resorted to reclamation as a source of new ground, contributing a total 253,000 ha of additional land to the Earth's surface in the 21st century, equivalent to an area the size of Luxembourg. Reclamation is especially prominent in East Asia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, followed by Western Europe and West Africa. The most common land uses on reclaimed spaces are port extension (>70 cities), followed by residential/commercial (30 cities) and industrial (19 cities). While increased global trade and the rapid urbanization have driven these uses, we argue that a city's prestigious place‐making effort to gain global reputation is emerging as another major driver underlying recent reclamation projects to create tourist and green spaces Meanwhile, the study suggests that 70% of recent reclamation has occurred in areas identified as potentially exposed to extreme sea level rise (SLR) by 2100 and this presents a significant challenge to sustainable development at the coast. Plain Language Summary: Coastal regions face enormous pressure from growing human footprints, especially given the current rates of sea‐level rise. It is now recognized that seawards extension of the land through land reclamation and infrastructure development, at least partly in response to increased vulnerability induced by extreme storm surge events, is also a feature of recent coastal dynamics, especially in the world's coastal megacities Despite its growing global importance and reach worldwide, coastal reclamation is regarded as a local issue. Subsequently, the scale, intensity, and justification are not globally known, rather they are documented through localized case studies. By leveraging advanced satellite and cloud computing technology, this study aims to map the global state of 21st coastal land reclamation and to highlight the risk of such an anthropogenic footprint at the coast in the era of SLR. Key Points: 253,000 ha of additional land to the Earth's coastal surface in the 21st century, equivalent to an area the size of LuxembourgCoastal Reclamation is especially prominent in East Asia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, followed by Western Europe and West AfricaWe suggest that 70% of recent reclamation has occurred in areas identified as high risk to extreme SLR by 2100 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future changes of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over East Asia are investigated using the models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To quantify ETC frequency, intensity, and genesis changes in a warming climate, the objective tracking algorithm is applied to nine CMIP5 models. These models provide 6-hourly wind data with no missing values in the high-terrain regions. The historical simulations reasonably well capture the spatial distribution of ETC properties, except for nonnegligible biases in and downstream of the high-terrain regions. Such biases are particularly pronounced in the models with a coarse spatial resolution and smooth topography, which weaken lee cyclogenesis. The best five models, which show better performance for historical simulations than other models, are used to evaluate the possible changes of East Asian ETCs under the RCP8.5 scenario. These models project a reduced cyclogenesis on the leeward side of the Tibetan Plateau, and over the East China Sea and western North Pacific in the late twenty-first century, resulting in a reduced ETC frequency from the east coast of China to the western North Pacific. The ETC intensity also shows a hint of weakening over the North Pacific. These ETC property changes are largely consistent with an enhanced static stability and a reduced vertical wind shear in a warming climate. This result indicates that the local baroclinicity, instead of increased moisture content, may play a critical role in determining the future changes of East Asian ETCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study explores the impact of anthropogenic forcings (ANT) on surface air temperatures (SATs) across East Asia (EA) over a long period (1850–2014) using the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets. Based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble simulations, the historical simulations (twentieth century) and future (twenty-first century) SAT projections were investigated. Our calculations show that during 1850–2014, the combination of ANT and natural (NAT) ('ALL = ANT + NAT') forcings increased the EA's SAT by 0.031 °C/decade, while a high increase of 0.08 °C/decade due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The ANT forcing rapidly increased after 1969. As a result, SAT change was enhanced at a rate of 0.268 °C/decade and 0.255 °C/decade due to GHG and ALL forcings, respectively. Human-induced GHG emissions were the dominant factors driving SAT warming and will also contribute to substantial future warming trends. Additionally, the optimal fingerprinting method was used to signify the influence of ANT forcing on climate change in EA. In a two-signal analysis, the ANT forcing was distinctly detected and detached from NAT forcing. In three-signal analyses, GHG forcing was dominant and separated from AER and NAT forcings. The future projections from 2015 to 2100 were examined based on CMIP6 socioeconomic pathway emission scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) has enormous influences on North American and Eurasian climate and Pacific ecosystems. Its change under anthropogenic warming is of prodigious societal concern and scientific dispute. We show evidence that the observed PDV has amplified in the northeast Pacific horseshoe‐like region while weakened over the South Pacific and Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension (KOE) region since the beginning of the 21st century. Congruently, under the influence of PDV, precipitation anomalies have significantly amplified globally and reversed the sign over Africa and East Asia. Analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical simulations and future projections suggests that greenhouse forcing weakens the PDV in the South and northwestern Pacific and shortens its periodicity. However, the observed PDV's enhancement over the North Pacific eastern boundary is likely due to internal variability. Our findings on the PDV's response to anthropogenic forcing and internal variability shed light on the PDV's future change and decadal prediction. Plain Language Summary: Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) is one of the primary modes of internal variability. There is an unprecedented change of the PDV after 1999, which reveals a sudden change in the spatial pattern, intensity, and climate impacts of the PDV. The amplitude of PDV has decreased over the South Pacific and Kuroshio‐Oyashio region but strengthened along the west coast of North America and equatorial central Pacific. This current PDV's cycle has amplified the land precipitation anomalies worldwide and reversed the precipitation anomalies over Africa, East Asia, and sub‐Arctic regions. We used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 multi‐model results to illuminate that the recent unprecedented change of the PDV may be influenced by the combination of greenhouse warming and internal variability. Our findings reflect an advance in understanding the long‐term changes of the PDV and its remarkable impact on global land precipitation. Key Points: Observed Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) has weakened over the South Pacific and Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension while amplified over the northeast Pacific horseshoe‐like region since 1999Greenhouse gases forcing has a potential impact on weakening the PDV, which is also suggested by future warming scenarioThe increased PDV over the eastern boundary North Pacific and central Pacific may be associated with internal variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East Asia will face a skewed monsoon cycle with soaring flood, drought, and weather whiplash risks in a warming climate. In our objective eight-intraseasonal-monsoon-stage framework, we uncover a 'dry-get-wetter' paradigm in East Asia, contesting the fallen 'rich-get-richer' common belief. On timing, the Mid-summer and Fall periods are stretching at the expense of three delayed, shortened, and weakened winter stages, especially near the end of the twenty-first century. On threats, entire East Asia will experience up to 14–20 more heavy precipitation days during the rainy Spring to Mid-summer stages. Specifically, the Yangtze basin will suffer from an earlier pluvial period with escalating flood risks. Moreover, societal security and ecosystem resilience in the Huai-Yellow basin, South Japan, and the Korean Peninsula will be challenged by more frequent weather whiplash. Under the monsoon-stage framework, a complete moisture budget decomposition sheds light on the causes of a slower precipitation scaling and the 'dry-get-wetter' paradigm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 are investigated based on a set of 21st century climate change simulations over East Asia with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by five global models. The RegCM4 reproduces the major features of the observed TC activity over the region in the present-day period of 1986–2005, although with the underestimation of the number of TC genesis and intensity. A low number of TCs making landfall over China is also simulated. By the end of the 21st century (2079–98), the annual mean frequency of TC genesis and occurrence is projected to increase over the WNP by 16% and 10%, respectively. The increase in frequency of TC occurrence is in good agreement among the simulations, with the largest increase over the ocean surrounding Taiwan Island and to the south of Japan. The TCs tend to be stronger in the future compared to the present-day period of 1986–2005, with a large increase in the frequency of strong TCs. In addition, more TCs landings are projected over most of the China coast, with an increase of ∼18% over the whole Chinese territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian values thesis describes the cultural exceptionalism and alternative political development of East Asia. This study used four rounds of Asian Barometer Survey (ABS) datasets (spanning 2001–2016) to empirically examine the effects of Asian values on citizens' support for democracy in four East Asian societies—mainland China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—based on the theoretical distinction between the private and political spheres in which Asian values operate. The analysis produced three major findings. First, no remarkable gap exists between the citizens of China and those of other East Asian societies in terms of Asian values in the private sphere. However, Asian values in the political sphere are prevalent in China, while citizens in the other three societies have abandoned them. Second, supporting democracy is not incompatible with accepting the family and social ethics implied by Asian values, whereas Asian values in the political sphere have significantly negative associations with preference for democracy. Third, although most citizens in East Asia support democracy, the strongly positive evaluation of its suitability for local societies observed at the beginning of the twenty-first century has weakened in the region over the last 20 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the summer of 1998, heavy rainfall persisted throughout the summer and resulted in a severe prolonged flooding event over East Asia. Will a similar rainy summer happen again? To date, many studies have investigated projected changes in the seasonality or daily extreme precipitation events over East Asia; however, few studies have focused on the changes in extreme summer-averaged East Asian rainfall. This type of summer is referred to as a "heavy rainy summer (HRS)" in this study, and an investigation of future changes in its probability is performed by analyzing CMIP5 model outputs in historical climate simulation (HIST) and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. All models project increased probabilities of HRS by a factor of two to three. The projected East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) (EASRRCPs−EASRHIST) in both climatology and HRS is expected to intensify significantly. The increased EASR could be attributed to significantly intensified water vapor transport (WVT) originating from the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the eastern subtropical North Pacific (SNP), which is a result of the thermodynamic component. The WVT from the TIO would supply more moisture for EASR because of its stronger intensity and faster rate of increase. Meanwhile, the EASR anomaly in HRS relative to climatology (EASRHRS−EASRCLM) would increase by approximately 11%–33%. In HIST, the associated WVT anomaly, caused only by the dynamic component, converges moisture from adjacent land and ocean. However, under the RCPs, the WVT anomaly from the TIO, resulted from the thermodynamic component, would appear and increase by a factor of three to be comparable to the WVT anomaly from the eastern SNP. The latter would result from the dynamic component but increase by only half. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India's ambitions in East Asia are evident and pragmatic. It has a growing bonhomie with Japan to collaborate with on bilateral level and within multilateral frameworks as well. In consideration of Japan's caution towards the US and China, it is looking for a sustainable partnership that has mutually appreciative policy axes and the capabilities to achieve bilateral objectives with it. It has repeatedly identified India as the most viable option to adopt this role. The author has taken into consideration multilateral arrangements and larger international relations with countries like China to understand the limitations to Indo-Japanese relations, with recommendations on how to overcome them. Furthermore, the article explores the possibility of a larger multilateral security regime with the Republic of Korea and Taiwan, in light of mutual interests and the latest trends of multilateralism that have swept Asia in the twenty-first century. Finally, the paper observes that India's role in East Asia does not have to be fundamentally defined by or structured on the basis of the actions of a third party. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies using observed data suggested a decreasing trend in the frequency of cold surge (CS) over East Asia (EA) under global warming. However, the future change of CSs in different paths is relatively understudied. In this study, after evaluating the classification of CSs paths and the trend of CSs in different paths in historical simulation, the changes of CS paths in EA in future warming scenario have been investigated using the latest 21 models from the phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245) scenario. First of all, the observed paths of winter CS in EA from 1979 to 2013 are tracked by the Flexible Particle (FLEXPART) model using ERA‐Interim daily reanalysis datasets, and the CS paths are divided into the northwestern path, northern path, and western path by hierarchical clustering algorithm. Random forest algorithm is introduced to match the future CSs according to the observed classification results. The projected results indicate that the frequency of total CSs will decrease significantly in the 21st century with a trend of −0.47 times/10a. Compared with the late 20th century, the total CSs, the CSs in the northwestern path and the western path decrease by 49, 61, and 60%, respectively, in the late 21st century, while the CSs in northern path do not show a significant trend. The substantial decrease of the northwestern path CSs and the western path CSs make the proportion of northern path CSs in total CSs rise from 19.5% in the late 20th century to 37.3% in the late 21st century. It means the strong CSs are still frequent in the future, probably due to the stability of the northern path CSs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This commentary is about new approaches, proposed by three scholars from East Asia, to address the globalization of Latin American Studies through networked-research and academic cooperation. Based on the institutionalization in the twenty-first century of Latin American Studies in East Asia and of Asian Studies in Latin America, there is a need to promote joint-research projects among academics on both sides of the Pacific with emphasis not only on economic and international relations but on broader studies that highlight the increasingly relevant global role of East Asia and Latin America. Initiatives like the East Asian Network of Latin American Studies and the Pacific Studies Research Center of the University of Guadalajara, which is presented here, can be exemplars of platforms to achieve such goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we show using a state-of-the-art Earth system model, UKESM1, that emissions and climate scenario depending, there could be large changes in surface ozone by the end of the twenty-first century, with unprecedentedly large increases over South and East Asia. We also show that statistical modelling of the trends in future ozone works well in reproducing the model output between 1900 and 2050. However, beyond 2050, and especially under large climate change scenarios, the statistical model results are in poorer agreement with the fully interactive Earth system model output. This suggests that additional processes occurring in the Earth system model such as changes in the production of ozone at higher temperatures or changes in the influx of ozone from the stratosphere, which are not captured by the statistical model, have a first order impact on the evolution of surface ozone over the twenty-first century. We show in a series of idealized box model simulations, with two different chemical schemes, that changes in temperature lead to diverging responses between the schemes. This points at the chemical mechanisms as being a source of uncertainty in the response of ozone to changes in temperature, and so climate, in the future. This underscores the need for more work to be performed to better understand the response of ozone to changes in temperature and constrain how well this relationship is simulated in models. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The urbanization growth in the 20th and 21st centuries has led to a series of unprecedented problems in the ecological environment. Based on constructing an integrated urbanization-ecological environment index system, this article conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the coupling coordination degree between urbanization and the ecological environment and uncovers its spatiotemporal variation characteristics in the Siberian and Far East Federal Districts, Russia from 2005 to 2017. The coupling coordination of urbanization and the ecological environment in the Siberian and Far East Federal Districts improve from slightly unbalanced development stage to barely balanced development stage from 2005 to 2017. In 2017, more than half regions achieved the barely balanced development of urbanization and the ecological environment. However, the most desirable development stage, the superior balanced development stage, is never achieved in the Siberian and Far East Federal Districts during the study period. The spatial pattern of the coupling coordination degree of urbanization and the ecological environment in the Siberian and Far East Federal District gradually changes from "dumbbell" to "high-north low-south". The south part of the Siberian and Far East Federal Districts should be paid more attention in the future urban development process. This research will provide support in the future coordination of urban development in the Siberian and Far East Federal Districts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The advent of the new era in which societies now live is forcing a reconstruction of global educational systems. It turns out that the methods and forms of work used thus far in education are often serving societies which no longer exist. In the face of these inevitable changes, questions arise, whose clear and certain answers are difficult to find. What educational tools should be used today to take into account a holistic approach to teaching and education? Are there any universal methods and forms of work that would meet the educational expectations of the 21st century? The guidelines of the report “Learning – the treasure within” by the International Commission on Education for the 21st Century, chaired by Jacques Delors, include the modest Japanese soroban – an abacus known in the Far East since the 16th century. Japan’s technological development has not excluded this old medium from general school education. It turns out that it is used not only to perform quick mathematical calculations, but also has strictly pedagogical and even therapeutic values. Using this old abacus in a new learning culture helps in holistic early childhood education. The skills acquired in mastering the use of the soroban are important when learning all school subjects. The growing number of schools in Poland offering soroban courses, as well as the educational and developmental successes of children and youth who have acquired the ability to use this abacus proficiently, call for a scientific study of this issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, probabilistic future changes in sea surface temperature (SST) over East Asian marginal seas between historical (1971–2000) and late twenty-first century (2061–2100) periods are calculated by using both unweighted and weighted averaging methods. Unlike most previous studies, the present study considers uncertainty caused by internal variability and model error, which could reduce the credible intervals. Here, marginal seas are divided into three regions of Yellow Sea, South Sea, and East/Japan Sea, and the projections are computed separately for January–February–March (JFM), April–May–June, July–August–September (JAS), and October–November–December seasons. Our results show that the SSTs for the three regions are projected to increase by about 1–3 K and 2–6 K under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and the RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, in terms of the 90% credible intervals. The future SST change over the Yellow and the East/Japan seas is larger than that over the South Sea, which is similar to recent observed trends. SSTs are expected to increase more in JAS than in JFM for all three regions. Before making the projections, the method is tested in a suite of one-at-a-time cross-validation experiments. The method well-calibrated results as measured by the 90% posterior credible intervals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article outlines preliminary findings from a futures forecasting exercise where participants in Shenzhen and Singapore considered the socio-technological construction of 3D printing in terms of work and social change. We offered participants ideal political-economic futures across local–global knowledge and capital–commons dimensions, and then had them backcast the contextual waypoints across markets, culture, policy, law and technology dimensions that help guide towards each future. Their discussion identified various contextually sensitive points, but also tended to dismiss the farthest reaches of each proposed ideal, often reverting to familiar contextual signifiers. Here, we offer discussion on how participants saw culture and industry shaping futures for pertinent political economic concerns in the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last two decades, China has experienced one of the most dramatic and sustained periods of economic growth in world history. China's use of economic statecraft provides an important venue in which to examine the role of unacknowledged ‘coercive diplomacy’ within the context of China's ‘peaceful rise discourse.’ In contrast to Western countries, which have overtly used sanctions and other forms of economic coercion, China has publicly denied any such policies while at the same time quietly pursuing them. China's denial of using coercive economic statecraft has muted the reactions of neighboring publics and government, but it cannot entirely forestall them. Without seriously undermining China's ‘peaceful-rising’ image, a more explicit statement from Beijing regarding its coercive economic measure could provide deterrence and assurance to China's neighbors in resolving the disputes. This article first surveys existing literature on economic statecraft focusing on the coercive aspects of such strategies. Second, it presents an in-depth case study on how China uses economic leverages over its neighbors in East Asia: North Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. Finally, it highlights the limits of China's economic statecraft within the constraints of China's ‘peaceful rise’ discourse. It concludes with implications for Asian politics and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Academic and industrial literature highlight the importance of airport-driven development (ADD) for the 21st Century. Several different types of ADD concepts have been defined, such as aerotropolis and airport city, but there are often substantial differences between authors about definitions. Such differences can potentially create confusion when ADD concepts are used by airport planners in their planning documents (e.g., master plans) and the marketing materials (e.g., brochures and airport websites). Given that large amounts of investment can often depend upon the marketing of a particular ADD concept, such confusion is highly problematic for the air transport industry. However, previous research has not explicitly addressed this issue. To help fill this research gap, the current paper has four different purposes, to: (1) compare definitions of the airport-driven development concepts in the academic literature, (2) compare definitions with real-life examples given by researchers; (3) compare academic definitions and examples with industry usage, as found on airport websites and in airport planning documents; and (4) investigate aspects of the transferability of the ADD concepts (from one region to another and from the academic literature to the industry and vice-versa). Using information from airport websites and master plans, it was found that the terms aerotropolis and airport city are used interchangeably by researchers but not by the industry. However, the use of terms by the industry depends heavily upon the (continental) location of airports, with the analysis presented in the paper distinguishing between airports in North America, Latin America, South and East Asia, Europe and the Middle East. Such analysis enables conclusions to be made about the transferability of ADD concepts, originating in the Global North, to the Global South. • Airports examples of airport-driven development concepts differ by researchers.. • Airports examples of airport-driven development concepts in the academic literature diverge from the industry. • The way the industry classifies airports to airport-driven development concepts depends on the location of airports. • Proximity and strategic investments influence the transferability of the concepts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the 18 realizations of three state-of-the-art climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), this paper examines the changes in climatology and trends of winter diurnal temperature range (DTR) over East Asia in response to natural and anthropogenic forcings. In the observation, the climatology of DTR during 1979–2014 displays a horizontal tile from southwest to northeast over East Asia. In addition, the observed DTR also presents an obviously declining trend in recent decades, with the magnitude of roughly −0.10 °C decade−1. The historical all-forcing simulations well reproduce the geographical distributions and magnitude of climatology and trends of winter DTR over East Asia in 1979–2014. Furthermore, the winter DTR exhibits a continuous declining trend from the historical scenario to the future SSP245 scenario over East Asia, with the most significant declining during the first half of twenty-first century (i.e., 2021–2060). Based on the individual forcing experiments, it suggests that the greenhouse gases forcing plays a primary role in driving the climatology and trends of DTR over East Asia, especially for the SSP245 scenario. Further analysis indicates that the increasing precipitation under greenhouse gases forcing largely explain the declining DTR trends over East Asia, especially over the northern East Asia both in historical and SSP245 scenarios. • The observed decreasing DTR trends are reasonably captured in the all-forcing historical simulations in CMIP6 models. • The greenhouse gas forcing plays a primary role in driving the declining DTR trends over East Asia • The declining of DTR is partly attributed to the increasing precipitation over East Asia in the greenhouse gas forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is obvious that the security environment in East Asia is more unstable and unpredictable. In the South China Sea, tensions over disputed islands initiate a more severe Sino–American rivalry. In the East China Sea, China disputes the control over the Senkaku Islands, and is escalating military activities around those islands. North Korea continues provocative activities including launching of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons tests. This naturally leads to the idea that Japan needs to play a larger role to restore stability in the international order. This paper explores the challenges facing East Asian security in the face of the passage of Japan's new security bills in 2015 and how they impact the future of Japanese security policy. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The teaching of foreign languages to young learners is growing in popularity around the world. Research in this field, particularly of English as a second/foreign language education in East Asia, is a relatively new area of empirical inquiry, and it has the potential to make significant contributions to child second-language acquisition (Child-SLA) theory building, research methodologies, and policies in East Asia and beyond. This article reviews relevant peer-reviewed literature on English education among young learners in East Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan). I begin by reviewing policy literature to illustrate the social and policy contexts of early English education, identifying major policy-related concerns. Next, I review empirical studies of English learning and teaching, organizing them by their relevance to the previously identified policy concerns. The article concludes with suggestions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Although many previous studies have investigated the economic growth of East Asian countries from the perspective of productivity growth, they have adopted a limited focus only on the national level or on the aggregated level and have overlooked the heterogeneity at the disaggregated level. Furthermore, only a few studies have examined the sources of the remarkable growth and trade performance of the Korean machinery and equipment industry, despite its importance for sustainable growth of national economy. Therefore, we investigated the Total Factor Productivity Growth (TFPG) of the Korean machinery and equipment industry and its 12 sub-sectors from 1970 to 2012 using the stochastic frontier production approach. As a result, we found that the industry has achieved labour input-driven TFPG largely due to technical progress. This is contrary to the previous result that East Asia has expanded the production frontier by capital accumulation. In contrast, in some sub-sectors, scale effect and allocation efficiency have driven TFPG. We also found distinctive patterns of TFPG across different sub-sectors from the perspectives of the effect of input factors and the pattern of technical progress. These results imply that policy makers should consider industry-specific policy designs that incorporate the specific characteristics of individual sub-sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Companies who have delivered unexpected services or products will have problems because of the negative word-of-mouth diffusion arising from dissatisfied customers. With the aid of the Internet, every single negative experience can be distributed to millions around the world in just one second. This study focuses on the content analysis methodology and investigates the behaviors of hotel guests who stayed at hotels in Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia; the guests made complaints on the TripAdvisor website. In this study, three main constructs are explored: inferior quality of hotel facilities, inadvertence towards the orders of guests, and inappropriate comportment of hotel staff. TripAdvisor was chosen for this study since it is the largest travel review website, and reviews for Kuala Lumpur luxury hotels were selected as this location is one of the most visited places in the world. Interestingly, dissatisfied guests who spread negative electronic word-of-mouth have been significant challenges for hotel management. Despite the significant importance, relatively little content has been written about how guests use the Internet to share their experiences. Thus, this study sheds light on the importance of online reviews by hotel guests to provide better hotel services. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

An essay is presented which discusses Australian foreign relations from January 2014 through June 2014, with a particular focus on its foreign policy toward East Asia. An overview of Australia's foreign economic relations, including its trade relationship with China, is provided. The U.S.'s alliance with Australia, including in regard to its dependence on the U.S., is discussed.

Contemporary scholarship on policy making in Africa tends either to view the process as being entirely divorced from international policy lessons and experiences, or to portray policy makers as prone to unreflective imitation of whichever countries happen to be economically and politically ascendant. Kenya's Vision 2030 demonstrates both of these assumptions to be flawed: not only have Kenyan planners and technocrats consciously emulated foreign models in the formulation and execution of this long-term development plan, but the way in which they have done this is embedded in a historical reading of Kenya's development trajectory as well as the trajectories of those countries from which lessons are drawn. Thus, Vision 2030 bears the imprint of Singaporean and Malaysian policies, rather than only the more modish “Chinese Model”. Far from heralding the birth of an entirely new East Asia-inspired development paradigm, this emulation echoes the early years of post-colonial Kenya, when technologically optimistic planners such as Tom Mboya sought to guide the country along the path of modernization, deploying tools such as technocratic rule, rapid economic growth, and social engineering. The Kenyan case therefore demonstrates processes of policy emulation in Africa to be both more prevalent and more nuanced than is commonly assumed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Since the 1990s, alongside China's economic growth, the international community has fostered a general anxiety towards a "China threat." In order to relieve itself from suspicion, China adopted the dual strategies of "harmonious worldview" and "good neighbor policy." The strategies led to the use of soft power in China's foreign policy. China aimed to reduce security concerns implied by the threat theory by supporting an image that caters to international peace and development. This article seeks to explain how China achieves its interests in Southeast Asia through the use of soft power. The authors address the concepts of "harmonious worldview" and "good neighbor policy" and how the twin strategies and soft power have shaped China's foreign policy in recent years. This article aims to provide insights into China's policy options in Southeast Asia in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main goal of this study was to obtain new results on the physically based future hydrological consequences of climate change in the Amur, Lena, and Selenga River basins by using data from an ensemble of global climate (general circulation) models (GCMs) as boundary conditions in spatially distributed, process-based runoff formation models. This approach provides a basis for a more detailed comparison of the sensitivity of hydrological systems of neighboring large river basins in Eastern Siberia and the Far East. The greatest increases in annual flow are predicted for the Lena River under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 6.0 by the middle and end of the 21st century and for the Selenga River under RCP 6.0 by the end of the 21st century, while the Amur flow anomalies are close to zero. During the 21st century, the greatest relative changes in river flow are predicted for the spring flood, especially for the Lena and Selenga, under both scenarios. The summer–autumn and winter runoff of the Amur River has a negative change of up to 8% for the two RCPs, and, on the contrary, the anomalies are positive for the Lena and Selenga. Evaluating runoff variations between RCPs, we noted high summer–autumn and winter runoff changes for the Amur River under RCP 6.0 for the future period, a significant increase in anomalies of the spring and winter runoff of the Lena under RCP 6.0 by the end of the 21st century, and a greater prevalence of summer–autumn and winter runoff increase for the Selenga River under RCP 2.6 during the 21st century, but it is especially pronounced by its end. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses different conceptual frameworks for measuring mathematics pedagogical content knowledge (MPCK) in international comparison studies. Two large-scale international comparative studies, Mathematics Teaching in the Twenty-First Century (MT21; Schmidt et al., ) and the Teacher Education and Development Study in Mathematics (TEDS-M; Tatto et al., ), were used for analysis. The challenges faced by these studies included the lack of elaborate conceptual frameworks for MPCK developed by non-Western scholars and the corresponding test items that were tied to the frameworks. In this paper, I introduce a conceptual framework developed by Hsieh ( Secondary Education, 63(3), 30-47, () in Taiwan relating to MPCK. The items of the 2 international comparison studies were reexamined according to Hsieh's model. A study based on Hsieh's model is introduced to manifest the existence of distinct or probably conflicting ideas between Taiwanese and Western countries regarding the scope and substance of different types of mathematics teachers' knowledge. Hsieh's model is a start toward searching for an East Asian identity in MPCK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East Asia (EA) is conventionally defined to comprise China and Japan, the four newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEANs) economies. The EA region is well known for its dynamic economic growth through the past 50 years. The first wave of EA's high growth was led by Japan, and it soon spread to the four NIEs and some ASEAN economies. This marks the first rise of EA or EA-I. Japanese economists used to explain such a phenomenon as the ‘flying geese pattern’. The second wave of EA's high growth was led by China, and it is currently spreading into the whole of the EA region. The second rise of EA or EA-II is economically much more formidable than EA-I because of China's vast economic scale compounded by its high rates economic growth. The China-led EA-II today accounts for 24.4% of global GDP (higher than the US share of 21.5%), as compared to 15.2% of the Japan-led EA-I. Increasingly, China's economy operates not just as an engine of growth for the EA region but also a catalyst for regional economic integration. After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, global economic gravity has clearly shifted to EA. However, individual EA economies are still beset by problems of structural imbalance. Above all, the future of EA-II critically depends on the continuing economic rise of China, i.e. the ability of China's economy to sustain its dynamic economic growth without falling into the ‘middle-income trap’. EA economic growth has been taking place in the kind of regional order that is, from time to time, undermined by bilateral discord and regional conflict. China as the region's largest economy will no doubt continue to lead the region's economic growth and shape the pattern of economic relations among the EA economies. Increasingly trade and investment in the region are gravitating towards China. However, for a long time, China will not be able to shape the region's geo-political landscape. China's message of ‘peaceful rise’ has not been unequivocally accepted in the region. China's overall relations with other EA economies will continue to be ‘hot in economics and cold in politics’. The growing political and strategic role of the USA has further complicated China's relations with other EA economies in the region. For years to come, China's geo-political leverage in the region will remain limited as opposed to its expanding geo-economic influence. The existing regional order in EA will, therefore, continue to be marred by uncertainty and instability. It is still a long way from the East Asian Community, which is to be based on not just sustainable economic growth and increasing integration, but also harmonious political and security relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the socio-political impact of the internet and new social media in East Asia. In particular it explores whether the new tools and platforms associated with the latter are having a democratising effect on the region's authoritarian and semi-authoritarian regimes by opening up a permissive online public sphere in which traditional hierarchies of power are challenged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article traces the evolution of heightened Chinese expectations and the resultant spike in national identity in 2010, using a six-dimensional framework: 1) ideological, 2) temporal, 3) sectoral, 4) vertical, 5) horizontal, and 6) intensity. A hybrid ideology rose to the forefront. Forceful historical arguments covered three distinct periods. The triad of economic, cultural, and political identity raised sectoral identity to an unprecedented level. The leadership kept pressing the case for vertical identity in contrast to the West. Above all, it put the spotlight on horizontal identity to draw a sharper contrast with the United States and neighboring states as well. If at the time of the Hu-Obama summit the tone softened somewhat, China continued its risky wager on widening the identity gap. Regardless of whether China's foreign policy is currently assertive, its national identity narrative remains a driving force for divisiveness in the regional and international order. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of Chinese foreign policy has long shown that domestic politics and domestic constraints are sources of foreign policy, albeit generally considered less potent than ideology and interests. Domestic political constraints should also be explored as factors in Chinese regional policies toward East Asia, including regional economic institutions. This paper examines three domestic institutional constraints on regional foreign policy in the area of trade and economics: a fragmented decision-making structure that has difficulty with coordination, a relatively heavy reliance on top level decision-makers at a time when issues of Asian economic policy have relatively low priority for these same decision-makers, and the relatively extreme lack of autonomy for negotiators vis-a-vis top decision-makers in Beijing. These constraints are by any means unique to China. However, at a time when many observers and participants are expecting—indeed, often hoping for—Chinese leadership in the region, the paper posits that these constraints hinder the PRC's ability to fill this role. The key empirical focus is regional trade agreements and regional economic organizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on China's regional rise reveals divergent understandings of why China changed its regional strategy and when such a transformation occurred. There are also different understandings of the extent of China's power in the region—or more often, the extent to which US power in East Asia is already challenged by China's regional rise. Nevertheless, there is a consensus of sorts over how Chinese policy has changed with an emphasis on a combination of proactive diplomatic initiatives and ever increasing economic interactions. After providing a brief overview of the existing literature, the main part of this article considers the role of China's ‘soft power’ in reconfiguring power relationships in East Asia. It suggests that while the US might have lost some of its ideational appeal, it is through working within existing frameworks and ‘norms’ (rather than establishing new revisionist alternatives) that China has had most success in assuaging fears of the consequences of its rise. However, the way in which others conceive of China's rise and Chinese power (and subsequently act) does provide a form of ‘non-hard’ power that might help China's leaders attain their regional objectives particularly in light of the continuing global economic crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's rise entails a potentially threatening increase in its political and military power. Adherents of 'democratic peace theory', however, see cause for optimism: the economic development accompanying China's ascendance might have a pacifying effect on Chinese foreign relations. Unfortunately, in China's case this hope is probably unfounded. Some of China's most prickly foreign policies, including its unwillingness to accept postwar Japan as a 'normal' nation and its insistence that Taiwan must eventually unify with China regardless of the wishes of Taiwan's inhabitants, are already 'democratic' in the sense that most of China's people endorse them. Chinese public opinion has become a powerful influence on foreign-policymaking, and one that sometimes pushes Beijing toward conflict even when China's leaders would prefer conciliation. Democratisation in China would not immediately remove the sources of tension between the Chinese and the other Asia-Pacific democracies, and China's neighbours must understand that on some issues the Chinese government must meet compelling domestic expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise of China is seen by some observers as a precursor of inevitable hegemonic competition in East Asia. At the very least, it seems likely that China's influence in East Asia will grow at the expense of the United States. Whether this will eventually amount to a form of hegemonic transition is far less clear. It is, therefore, an opportune moment to consider the relative strengths and weaknesses of China and the US in East Asia. This paper suggests that the nature of hegemonic competition and transition is more uncertain and complex than some of the most influential theoretical understandings of hegemony would have us believe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines U.S. foreign relations in Asia, especially relations with China. Under President George W. Bush, U.S. policy is seen as having been a series of reactions to events, particularly in its efforts to halt North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The development of a strong regionalism in East Asia and China's efforts to become a co-operative regional partner with its neighbors are seen as the most important changes in the region in the 2000s. It is argued that these developments offer the U.S. an opportunity to work with China bilaterally on issues of mutual interest, and through China to work with other Asian countries.

This article examines the massive social, economic, and political upheaval of the 17th Century from the perspective of East Asia. Historians have long debated the origins and meaning of events in Europe during that time period but China, Japan and others also experienced serious internal conflict. The author explains events surrounding the end of the Ming dynasty in 1644 but wonders if it is helpful to compare events in China to events in Europe. He also speculates on the impact of climate on historical events.

The article provides information on the twenty-first century which supposed to be the age of information technology and East Asia. It states that East Asia is spanned by information technology, it might acquire some aspects of the technology, but will be forced to acquire. It says that the most hard adaptation will be the inevitable alteration in Asian values and culture. It mentions that the extent of the challenge presented by the alteration is so great that most East Asians have started touting their supposedly special values due to the effect of information technology on their societies is growing more hard to control.

The author comments on the article "Connectivity in East Asia," by D. H. Brooks in the same issue. He stresses that the article is informative but lacks adequate discussion on the role of policy in connectivity development. He cites the case of Thailand on how it addressed the external connectivity congestion. He provides an overview of the development and objectives of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Economic Community.

The article looks at urbanization in East Asia and Southeast Asia in the 2000-2010 period, discussing a study reported in "Environmental Research Letters" in March 2015 on the greater rise in urban populations than urban land areas in those regions, resulting in greater urban population densities.