Search

This study investigated whether machine learning (ML) has better predictive accuracy than logistic regression analysis (LR) for gait independence at discharge in subacute stroke patients (n = 843) who could not walk independently at admission. We developed prediction models using LR and five ML algorithms-specifically, the decision tree (DT), support vector machine, artificial neural network, ensemble learning, and k-nearest neighbor methods. Functional Independence Measure sub-items were used to evaluate the ability to walk independently. Model predictive accuracies were evaluated using areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) as well as accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and specificity. The AUC for DT (0.812) was significantly lower than those for the other algorithms (p < 0.01); however, the AUC for LR (0.895) did not differ significantly from those for the other models (0.893-0.903). Other performance metrics showed no substantial differences between LR and ML algorithms. In conclusion, the DT algorithm had significantly low predictive accuracy, and LR showed no significant difference in predictive accuracy compared with the other ML algorithms. As its predictive accuracy is similar to that of ML, LR can continue to be used for predicting the prognosis of gait independence, with additional advantages of being easily understandable and manually computable., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have an increased risk of developing serious infections (SIs) vs. individuals without RA; efforts to predict SIs in this patient group are ongoing. We assessed the ability of different machine learning modeling approaches to predict SIs using baseline data from the tofacitinib RA clinical trials program., Methods: This analysis included data from 19 clinical trials (phase 2, n = 10; phase 3, n = 6; phase 3b/4, n = 3). Patients with RA receiving tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily (BID) were included in the analysis; patients receiving tofacitinib 11 mg once daily were considered as tofacitinib 5 mg BID. All available patient-level baseline variables were extracted. Statistical and machine learning methods (logistic regression, support vector machines with linear kernel, random forest, extreme gradient boosting trees, and boosted trees) were implemented to assess the association of baseline variables with SI (logistic regression only), and to predict SI using selected baseline variables using 5-fold cross-validation. Missing values were handled individually per prediction model., Results: A total of 8404 patients with RA treated with tofacitinib were eligible for inclusion (15,310 patient-years of total follow-up) of which 473 patients reported SIs. Amongst other baseline factors, age, previous infection, and corticosteroid use were significantly associated with SI. When applying prediction modeling for SI across data from all studies, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve ranged from 0.656 to 0.739. AUROC values ranged from 0.599 to 0.730 in data from phase 3 and 3b/4 studies, and from 0.563 to 0.643 in data from ORAL Surveillance only., Conclusions: Baseline factors associated with SIs in the tofacitinib RA clinical trial program were similar to established SI risk factors associated with advanced treatments for RA. Furthermore, while model performance in predicting SI was similar to other published models, this did not meet the threshold for accurate prediction (AUROC > 0.85). Thus, predicting the occurrence of SIs at baseline remains challenging and may be complicated by the changing disease course of RA over time. Inclusion of other patient-associated and healthcare delivery-related factors and harmonization of the duration of studies included in the models may be required to improve prediction., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00147498; NCT00413660; NCT00550446; NCT00603512; NCT00687193; NCT01164579; NCT00976599; NCT01059864; NCT01359150; NCT02147587; NCT00960440; NCT00847613; NCT00814307; NCT00856544; NCT00853385; NCT01039688; NCT02187055; NCT02831855; NCT02092467., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Cannabis is cultivated for therapeutic and recreational purposes where delta-9 tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is a main target for its therapeutic effects. As the global cannabis industry and research into cannabinoids expands, more efficient and cost-effective analysis methods for determining cannabinoid concentrations will be beneficial to increase efficiencies and maximize productivity. The utilization of machine learning tools to develop near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy-based prediction models, which have been validated from accurate and sensitive chemical analysis, such as gas chromatography (GC) or liquid chromatography mass spectroscopy (LCMS), is essential. Previous research on cannabinoid prediction models targeted decarboxylated cannabinoids, such as THC, rather than the naturally occurring precursor, tetrahydrocannabinolic acid (THCA), and utilize finely ground cannabis inflorescence. The current study focuses on building prediction models for THCA concentrations in whole cannabis inflorescences prior to harvest, by employing non-destructive screening techniques so cultivators may rapidly characterize high-performing cultivars for chemotype in real time, thus facilitating targeted optimization of crossbreeding efforts. Using NIR spectroscopy and LCMS to create prediction models we can differentiate between high-THCA and even ratio classes with 100% prediction accuracy. We have also developed prediction models for THCA concentration with a R 2 = 0.78 with a prediction error average of 13%. This study demonstrates the viability of a portable handheld NIR device to predict THCA concentrations on whole cannabis samples before harvest, allowing the evaluation of cannabinoid profiles to be made earlier, therefore increasing high-throughput and rapid capabilities.

This study aimed to develop ICU mortality prediction models using a conceptual framework, focusing on nurses' concerns reflected in nursing records from the MIMIC IV database. We included 46,693 first-time ICU admissions of adults over 18 years with a minimum 24-hour stay, excluding those receiving hospice or palliative care. Predictors included demographics, clinical characteristics, and nursing documentation frequencies related to nurses' concerns. Four models were trained with 10-fold cross-validation after adjusting class imbalance. The random forest (RF) model was identified as the best-performing, with key predictors of mortality in this model being the frequency of vital signs, the frequency of nursing note documentation, and the frequency of monitoring-related nursing notes. This suggests that predictive models using nursing records, which reflect nurses' concerns as represented by the frequency of nursing documentation, may be integrated into clinical decision support tools, potentially enhancing patient outcomes in ICUs.

Purpose of Review: Machine learning (ML) approaches are an emerging alternative for healthcare risk prediction. We aimed to synthesise the literature on ML and classical regression studies exploring potential prognostic factors and to compare prediction performance for pre-eclampsia., Recent Findings: From 9382 studies retrieved, 82 were included. Sixty-six publications exclusively reported eighty-four classical regression models to predict variable timing of onset of pre-eclampsia. Another six publications reported purely ML algorithms, whilst another 10 publications reported ML algorithms and classical regression models in the same sample with 8 of 10 findings that ML algorithms outperformed classical regression models. The most frequent prognostic factors were age, pre-pregnancy body mass index, chronic medical conditions, parity, prior history of pre-eclampsia, mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, placental growth factor, and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A. Top performing ML algorithms were random forest (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91-0.96) and extreme gradient boosting (AUC = 0.92, 95% CI 0.90-0.94). The competing risk model had similar performance (AUC = 0.92, 95% CI 0.91-0.92) compared with a neural network. Calibration performance was not reported in the majority of publications. ML algorithms had better performance compared to classical regression models in pre-eclampsia prediction. Random forest and boosting-type algorithms had the best prediction performance. Further research should focus on comparing ML algorithms to classical regression models using the same samples and evaluation metrics to gain insight into their performance. External validation of ML algorithms is warranted to gain insights into their generalisability., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Our study delves into postpartum depression (PPD) extending observation up to six months postpartum, addressing the gap in long-term follow-ups and uncover critical intervention points., Method: Through a continuous three-wave cohort study involving 3174 of 10,730 invited postpartum women, we utilized machine learning to predict PPD risk, incorporating self-reported surveys and health records from October 2021 to Jan 2023., Results: PPD prevalence slightly decreased from 30.9 % to 29.1 % over six months. The Random Forest model emerged as the most effective, identifying key predictors of PPD at different stages. The top three factors at first month were newborn's birth weight, maternal weight before delivery and before pregnancy. The EPDS scores of last time, newborn's birth weight and maternal weight before pregnancy and before delivery were main predictors for EPDS scores at third and sixth months postpartum., Limitation: The study faces limitations such as potential selection bias due to the convenience sampling method and the reliance on self-reported measures, which may introduce reporting bias. Furthermore, the high attrition rate could affect the representativeness of the sample and the generalizability of the findings., Conclusion: There is a slight decrease in PPD rates over six months, yet the prevalence remains high. This underscores the need for early and ongoing mental health support for new mothers. Our study highlights the efficacy of machine learning in enhancing PPD risk assessment and tailoring intervention strategies, paving the way for more personalized healthcare approaches in postpartum care., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic disease of unknown etiology that lacks a specific treatment. In IPF, macrophages play a key regulatory role as a major component of the lung immune system, especially during inflammation and fibrosis. However, our understanding of the cellular heterogeneity and molecular characterization of macrophages in IPF, as well as their relevance in the clinical setting, is relatively limited. In this study, we analyzed in-depth single-cell transcriptome sequencing (scRNA-seq) data from lung tissues of IPF patients, identified macrophage subpopulations in IPF, and probed their molecular characteristics and biological functions. hdWGCNA identified co-expressed gene modules of a subpopulation of IPF-associated macrophages (IPF-MΦ), and probed the IPF-MΦ by a machine-learning approach. hdWGCNA identified a subpopulation of IPF-associated macrophage subpopulations and probed the IPF-MΦ signature gene (IRMG) for its prognostic value, and a prediction model was developed on this basis. In addition, IPF-MΦ was obtained after recluster analysis of macrophages in IPF lung tissues. Coexpressed gene modules of IPF-MΦ were identified by hdWGCNA. Then, a machine learning approach was utilized to reveal the characteristic genes of IPF-MΦ, and a prediction model was built on this basis. In addition, we discovered a type of macrophage unique to IPF lung tissue named ATP5-MΦ. Its characteristic gene encodes a subunit of the mitochondrial ATP synthase complex, which is closely related to oxidative phosphorylation and proton transmembrane transport, suggesting that ATP5-MΦ may have higher ATP synthesis capacity in IPF lung tissue. This study provides new insights into the pathogenesis of IPF and provides a basis for evaluating disease prognosis and predictive medicine in IPF patients., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Allogeneic Blood transfusion is common in hip surgery but is associated with increased morbidity. Accurate prediction of transfusion risk is necessary for minimizing blood product waste and preoperative decision-making. The study aimed to develop machine learning models for predicting perioperative blood transfusion in hip surgery and identify significant risk factors., Methods: Data of patients undergoing hip surgery between January 2013 and October 2021 in the Peking Union Medical College Hospital were collected to train and test predictive models. The primary outcome was perioperative red blood cell (RBC) transfusion within 72 h of surgery. Fourteen machine learning algorithms were established to predict blood transfusion risk incorporating patient demographic characteristics, preoperative laboratory tests, and surgical information. Discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate machine learning models. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was performed to interpret models., Results: In this study, 2431 hip surgeries were included. The Ridge Classifier performed the best with an AUC = 0.85 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.88) and a Brier score = 0.21. Patient-related risk factors included lower preoperative hemoglobin, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status > 2, anemia, lower preoperative fibrinogen, and lower preoperative albumin. Surgery-related risk factors included longer operation time, total hip arthroplasty, and autotransfusion., Conclusions: The machine learning model developed in this study achieved high predictive performance using available variables for perioperative blood transfusion in hip surgery. The predictors identified could be helpful for risk stratification, preoperative optimization, and outcomes improvement., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Purpose: The debate surrounding factors influencing postoperative flatus and defecation in patients undergoing colorectal resection prompted this study. Our objective was to identify independent risk factors and develop prediction models for postoperative bowel function in patients undergoing colorectal surgeries., Methods: A retrospective analysis of medical records was conducted for patients who undergoing colorectal surgeries at Peking University People's Hospital from January 2015 to October 2021. Machine learning algorithms were employed to identify risk factors and construct prediction models for the time of the first postoperative flatus and defecation. The prediction models were evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, the Youden index, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) through logistic regression, random forest, Naïve Bayes, and extreme gradient boosting algorithms., Results: The study included 1358 patients for postoperative flatus timing analysis and 1430 patients for postoperative defecation timing analysis between January 2015 and December 2020 as part of the training phase. Additionally, a validation set comprised 200 patients who undergoing colorectal surgeries from January to October 2021. The logistic regression prediction model exhibited the highest AUC (0.78) for predicting the timing of the first postoperative flatus. Identified independent risk factors influencing the time of first postoperative flatus were Age (p < 0.01), oral laxatives for bowel preparation (p = 0.01), probiotics (p = 0.02), oral antibiotics for bowel preparation (p = 0.02), duration of operation (p = 0.02), postoperative fortified antibiotics (p = 0.02), and time of first postoperative feeding (p < 0.01). Furthermore, logistic regression achieved an AUC of 0.72 for predicting the time of first postoperative defecation, with age (p < 0.01), oral antibiotics for bowel preparation (p = 0.01), probiotics (p = 0.01), and time of first postoperative feeding (p < 0.01) identified as independent risk factors., Conclusions: The study suggests that he use of probiotics and early recovery of diet may enhance the recovery of bowel function in patients undergoing colorectal surgeries. Among the various analytical methods used, logistic regression emerged as the most effective approach for predicting the timing of the first postoperative flatus and defecation in this patient population., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Despite the promising effects of robot-assisted gait training (RAGT) on balance and gait in post-stroke rehabilitation, the optimal predictors of fall-related balance and effective RAGT attributes remain unclear in post-stroke patients at a high risk of fall., Objective: We aimed to determine the most accurate clinical machine learning (ML) algorithm for predicting fall-related balance factors and identifying RAGT attributes., Methods: We applied five ML algorithms- logistic regression, random forest, decision tree, support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGboost)- to a dataset of 105 post-stroke patients undergoing RAGT. The variables included the Berg Balance Scale score, walking speed, steps, hip and knee active torques, functional ambulation categories, Fugl- Meyer assessment (FMA), the Korean version of the Modified Barthel Index, and fall history., Results: The random forest algorithm excelled (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve; AUC = 0.91) in predicting balance improvement, outperforming the SVM (AUC = 0.76) and XGboost (AUC = 0.71). Key determinants identified were knee active torque, age, step count, number of RAGT sessions, FMA, and hip torque., Conclusion: The random forest algorithm was the best prediction model for identifying fall-related balance and RAGT determinants, highlighting the importance of key factors for successful RAGT outcome performance in fall-related balance improvement.

Background: The reporting of machine learning (ML) prognostic and diagnostic modeling studies is often inadequate, making it difficult to understand and replicate such studies. To address this issue, multiple consensus and expert reporting guidelines for ML studies have been published. However, these guidelines cover different parts of the analytics lifecycle, and individually, none of them provide a complete set of reporting requirements., Objective: We aimed to consolidate the ML reporting guidelines and checklists in the literature to provide reporting items for prognostic and diagnostic ML in in-silico and shadow mode studies., Methods: We conducted a literature search that identified 192 unique peer-reviewed English articles that provide guidance and checklists for reporting ML studies. The articles were screened by their title and abstract against a set of 9 inclusion and exclusion criteria. Articles that were filtered through had their quality evaluated by 2 raters using a 9-point checklist constructed from guideline development good practices. The average κ was 0.71 across all quality criteria. The resulting 17 high-quality source papers were defined as having a quality score equal to or higher than the median. The reporting items in these 17 articles were consolidated and screened against a set of 6 inclusion and exclusion criteria. The resulting reporting items were sent to an external group of 11 ML experts for review and updated accordingly. The updated checklist was used to assess the reporting in 6 recent modeling papers in JMIR AI. Feedback from the external review and initial validation efforts was used to improve the reporting items., Results: In total, 37 reporting items were identified and grouped into 5 categories based on the stage of the ML project: defining the study details, defining and collecting the data, modeling methodology, model evaluation, and explainability. None of the 17 source articles covered all the reporting items. The study details and data description reporting items were the most common in the source literature, with explainability and methodology guidance (ie, data preparation and model training) having the least coverage. For instance, a median of 75% of the data description reporting items appeared in each of the 17 high-quality source guidelines, but only a median of 33% of the data explainability reporting items appeared. The highest-quality source articles tended to have more items on reporting study details. Other categories of reporting items were not related to the source article quality. We converted the reporting items into a checklist to support more complete reporting., Conclusions: Our findings supported the need for a set of consolidated reporting items, given that existing high-quality guidelines and checklists do not individually provide complete coverage. The consolidated set of reporting items is expected to improve the quality and reproducibility of ML modeling studies., (©William Klement, Khaled El Emam. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (https://www.jmir.org), 31.08.2023.)

Neuroimaging is critical in clinical care and research, enabling us to investigate the brain in health and disease. There is a complex link between the brain's morphological structure, physiological architecture, and the corresponding imaging characteristics. The shape, function, and relationships between various brain areas change during development and throughout life, disease, and recovery. Like few other areas, neuroimaging benefits from advanced analysis techniques to fully exploit imaging data for studying the brain and its function. Recently, machine learning has started to contribute (a) to anatomical measurements, detection, segmentation, and quantification of lesions and disease patterns, (b) to the rapid identification of acute conditions such as stroke, or (c) to the tracking of imaging changes over time. As our ability to image and analyze the brain advances, so does our understanding of its intricate relationships and their role in therapeutic decision-making. Here, we review the current state of the art in using machine learning techniques to exploit neuroimaging data for clinical care and research, providing an overview of clinical applications and their contribution to fundamental computational neuroscience., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Research Question: Which machine learning model predicts the implantation outcome better in an IVF cycle? What is the importance of each variable in predicting the implantation outcome in an IVF cycle?, Design: Retrospective cohort study comprising 939 transferred embryos between 2014 and 2018 in an IVF centre in Turkey with 17 selected features. The algorithms were Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Naïve Bayes (NB), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Neural Network (Nnet), Gradient Boost Decision Tree (GBDT), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Super Learner (SL). The results were evaluated with performance metrics (F1 score, specificity, accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]) with 10-fold cross-validation repeated ten times., Results: RF and SL models achieved the highest performance and showed F1 scores of 74% and 73%, specificity of 94%, an accuracy of 89%, and AUROC of 83%. In addition, the model identified the top features as maternal age, embryo transfer day, total gonadotrophin dose and oestradiol concentration., Conclusions: The present study revealed that machine learning algorithms successfully predicted implantation rates in an IVF attempt. In addition, maternal age is by far the most important predictor of IVF success when compared with other variables., (Copyright © 2022 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Kidney disease progression rates vary among patients. Rapid and accurate prediction of kidney disease outcomes is crucial for disease management. In recent years, various prediction models using Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have been established in nephrology. However, their accuracy have been inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of ML algorithms for kidney disease progression., Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, the Chinese Biomedicine Literature Database, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Database, and the VIP Database for diagnostic studies on ML algorithms' accuracy in predicting kidney disease prognosis, from the establishment of these databases until October 2020. Two investigators independently evaluate study quality by QUADAS-2 tool and extracted data from single ML algorithm for data synthesis using the bivariate model and the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) model., Results: Fifteen studies were left after screening, only 6 studies were eligible for data synthesis. The sample size of these 6 studies was 12,534, and the kidney disease types could be divided into chronic kidney disease (CKD) and Immunoglobulin A Nephropathy, with 5 articles using end-stage renal diseases occurrence as the primary outcome. The main results indicated that the area under curve (AUC) of the HSROC was 0.87 (0.84-0.90) and ML algorithm exhibited a strong specificity, 95% confidence interval and heterogeneity (I 2 ) of (0.87, 0.84-0.90, [I 2 99.0%]) and a weak sensitivity of (0.68, 0.58-0.77, [I 2 99.7%]) in predicting kidney disease deterioration. And the the results of subgroup analysis indicated that ML algorithm's AUC for predicting CKD prognosis was 0.82 (0.79-0.85), with the pool sensitivity of (0.64, 0.49-0.77, [I 2 99.20%]) and pool specificity of (0.84, 0.74-0.91, [I 2 99.84%]). The ML algorithm's AUC for predicting IgA nephropathy prognosis was 0.78 (0.74-0.81), with the pool sensitivity of (0.74, 0.71-0.77, [I 2 7.10%]) and pool specificity of (0.93, 0.91-0.95, [I 2 83.92%])., Conclusion: Taking advantage of big data, ML algorithm-based prediction models have high accuracy in predicting kidney disease progression, we recommend ML algorithms as an auxiliary tool for clinicians to determine proper treatment and disease management strategies., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Purpose: The majority of lumbar spine surgery referrals do not proceed to surgery. Early identification of surgical candidates in the referral process could expedite their care, whilst allowing timelier implementation of non-operative strategies for those who are unlikely to require surgery. By identifying clinical and imaging features associated with progression to surgery in the literature, we aimed to develop a machine learning model able to mirror surgical decision-making and calculate the chance of surgery based on the identified features., Material and Methods: In total, 55 factors were identified to predict surgical progression. All patients presenting with a lumbar spine complaint between 2013 and 2019 at a single Australian Tertiary Hospital (n = 483) had their medical records reviewed and relevant data collected. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was constructed to predict surgical candidacy. The model was evaluated on its accuracy, discrimination, and calibration., Results: Eight clinical and imaging predictive variables were included in the final model. The ANN was able to predict surgical progression with 92.1% accuracy. It also exhibited excellent discriminative ability (AUC = 0.90), with good fit of data (Calibration slope 0.938, Calibration intercept - 0.379, HLT > 0.05)., Conclusion: Through use of machine learning techniques, we were able to model surgical decision-making with a high degree of accuracy. By demonstrating that the operating patterns of single centres can be modelled successfully, the potential for more targeted and tailored referrals becomes possible, reducing outpatient wait-list duration and increasing surgical conversion rates., (© 2021. Crown.)

With the rising use of machine learning for healthcare applications, practitioners are increasingly confronted with the limitations of prediction models that are trained in one setting but meant to be deployed in several others. One recently identified limitation is so-called shortcut learning, whereby a model learns to associate features with the prediction target that do not maintain their relationship across settings. Famously, the watermark on chest x-rays has been demonstrated to be an instance of a shortcut feature. In this viewpoint, we attempt to give a structural characterization of shortcut features in terms of causal DAGs. This is the first attempt at defining shortcut features in terms of their causal relationship with a model's prediction target., (© 2022. Springer Nature B.V.)

Introduction: Road traffic crashes represent a major public health concern, so it is of significant importance to understand the factors associated with the increase of injury severity of its interveners when involved in a road crash. Determining such factors is essential to help decision making in road safety management, improving road safety, and reducing the severity of future crashes., Method: This paper presents a recent literature review of the methods that have been applied to road crash injury severity modeling. It includes 56 studies from 2001 to 2021 that consider more than 20 different statistical or machine learning techniques., Results: Random Forest was the algorithm with the best results, achieving the best performance in 70% of the times that it was applied and in 29% of all studies. Support Vector Machine and Decision Tree achieved the best performance in 53% and 31% of the times and in 16% and 14% of all studies, respectively. Bayesian Networks and K-Nearest Neighbors achieved the best performance in 67% and 40% of the times that were used but only achieved the best performance in 4% and 7% of all the studies analyzed, respectively., Conclusions: At this point, Random Forest revealed to be a good approach for road traffic crash injury severity prediction followed by Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and K-Nearest Neighbor. However, there is still a lot of room in this area to explore other techniques that can best suit this purpose as not only the model's performance should be considered but also causality issues, unobserved heterogeneity, and temporal instability. Practical Applications: This review enables researchers to understand the recent techniques applied in the analysis of injury severity modeling, and the ones that achieved the best performance results. Based on the reviewed studies, challenges and future research directions are presented., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Based on both new and previously utilized experimental data, the present study provides a comparative assessment of sensors and machine learning approaches for evaluating the microbiological spoilage of ready-to-eat leafy vegetables (baby spinach and rocket). Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR), near-infrared (NIR), visible (VIS) spectroscopy and multispectral imaging (MSI) were used. Two data partitioning approaches and two algorithms, namely partial least squares regression and support vector regression (SVR), were evaluated. Concerning baby spinach, when model testing was performed on samples randomly selected, the performance was better than or similar to the one attained when testing was performed based on dynamic temperatures data, depending on the applied analytical technology. The two applied algorithms yielded similar model performances for the majority of baby spinach cases. Regarding rocket, the random data partitioning approach performed considerably better results in almost all cases of sensor/algorithm combination. Furthermore, SVR algorithm resulted in considerably or slightly better model performances for the FTIR, VIS and NIR sensors, depending on the data partitioning approach. However, PLSR algorithm provided better models for the MSI sensor. Overall, the microbiological spoilage of baby spinach was better assessed by models derived mainly from the VIS sensor, while FTIR and MSI were more suitable in rocket. According to the findings of this study, a distinct sensor and computational analysis application is needed for each vegetable type, suggesting that there is not a single combination of analytical approach/algorithm that could be applied successfully in all food products and throughout the food supply chain., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

As global demographics change, ageing is a global phenomenon which is increasingly of interest in our modern and rapidly changing society. Thus, the application of proper prognostic indices in clinical decisions regarding mortality prediction has assumed a significant importance for personalized risk management (i.e., identifying patients who are at high or low risk of death) and to help ensure effective healthcare services to patients. Consequently, prognostic modelling expressed as all-cause mortality prediction is an important step for effective patient management. Machine learning has the potential to transform prognostic modelling. In this paper, results on the development of machine learning models for all-cause mortality prediction in a cohort of healthy older adults are reported. The models are based on features covering anthropometric variables, physical and lab examinations, questionnaires, and lifestyles, as well as wearable data collected in free-living settings, obtained for the "Healthy Ageing Initiative" study conducted on 2291 recruited participants. Several machine learning techniques including feature engineering, feature selection, data augmentation and resampling were investigated for this purpose. A detailed empirical comparison of the impact of the different techniques is presented and discussed. The achieved performances were also compared with a standard epidemiological model. This investigation showed that, for the dataset under consideration, the best results were achieved with Random UnderSampling in conjunction with Random Forest (either with or without probability calibration). However, while including probability calibration slightly reduced the average performance, it increased the model robustness, as indicated by the lower 95% confidence intervals. The analysis showed that machine learning models could provide comparable results to standard epidemiological models while being completely data-driven and disease-agnostic, thus demonstrating the opportunity for building machine learning models on health records data for research and clinical practice. However, further testing is required to significantly improve the model performance and its robustness.

Global competition among businesses imposes a more effective and low-cost supply chain allowing firms to provide products at a desired quality, quantity, and time, with lower production costs. The latter include holding cost, ordering cost, and backorder cost. Backorder occurs when a product is temporarily unavailable or out of stock and the customer places an order for future production and shipment. Therefore, stock unavailability and prolonged delays in product delivery will lead to additional production costs and unsatisfied customers, respectively. Thus, it is of high importance to develop models that will effectively predict the backorder rate in an inventory system with the aim of improving the effectiveness of the supply chain and, consequentially, the performance of the company. However, traditional approaches in the literature are based on stochastic approximation, without incorporating information from historical data. To this end, machine learning models should be employed for extracting knowledge of large historical data to develop predictive models. Therefore, to cover this need, in this study, the backorder prediction problem was addressed. Specifically, various machine learning models were compared for solving the binary classification problem of backorder prediction, followed by model calibration and a post-hoc explainability based on the SHAP model to identify and interpret the most important features that contribute to material backorder. The results showed that the RF, XGB, LGBM, and BB models reached an AUC score of 0.95, while the best-performing model was the LGBM model after calibration with the Isotonic Regression method. The explainability analysis showed that the inventory stock of a product, the volume of products that can be delivered, the imminent demand (sales), and the accurate prediction of the future demand can significantly contribute to the correct prediction of backorders.

Aims: Models predicting mortality in heart failure (HF) patients are often limited with regard to performance and applicability. The aim of this study was to develop a reliable algorithm to compute expected in-hospital mortality rates in HF cohorts on a population level based on administrative data comparing regression analysis with different machine learning (ML) models., Methods and Results: Inpatient cases with primary International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) encoded discharge diagnosis of HF non-electively admitted to 86 German Helios hospitals between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2018 were identified. The dataset was randomly split 75%/25% for model development and testing. Highly unbalanced variables were removed. Four ML algorithms were applied, and all algorithms were tuned using a grid search with multiple repetitions. Model performance was evaluated by computing receiver operating characteristic areas under the curve. In total, 59 125 cases (69.8% aged 75 years or older, 51.9% female) were investigated, and in-hospital mortality was 6.20%. Areas under the curve of all ML algorithms outperformed regression analysis in the testing dataset with values of 0.829 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.814-0.843] for logistic regression, 0.875 (95% CI 0.863-0.886) for random forest, 0.882 (95% CI 0.871-0.893) for gradient boosting machine, 0.866 (95% CI 0.854-0.878) for single-layer neural networks, and 0.882 (95% CI 0.872-0.893) for extreme gradient boosting. Brier scores demonstrated a good calibration especially of the latter three models., Conclusions: We introduced reliable models to calculate expected in-hospital mortality based only on administrative routine data using ML algorithms. A broad application could supplement quality measurement programs and therefore improve future HF patient care., (© 2021 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.)

Background: Although imaging, endoscopy, and inflammatory biomarkers are associated with future Crohn disease (CD) outcomes, common laboratory studies may also provide prognostic opportunities. We evaluated machine learning models incorporating routinely collected laboratory studies to predict surgical outcomes in U.S. Veterans with CD., Methods: Adults with CD from a Veterans Health Administration, Veterans Integrated Service Networks (VISN) 10 cohort examined between 2001 and 2015 were used for analysis. Patient demographics, medication use, and longitudinal laboratory values were used to model future surgical outcomes within 1 year. Specifically, data at the time of prediction combined with historical laboratory data characteristics, described as slope, distribution statistics, fluctuation, and linear trend of laboratory values, were considered and principal component analysis transformations were performed to reduce the dimensionality. Lasso regularized logistic regression was used to select features and construct prediction models, with performance assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic using 10-fold cross-validation., Results: We included 4950 observations from 2809 unique patients, among whom 256 had surgery, for modeling. Our optimized model achieved a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.78 (SD, 0.002). Anti-tumor necrosis factor use was associated with a lower probability of surgery within 1 year and was the most influential predictor in the model, and corticosteroid use was associated with a higher probability of surgery. Among the laboratory variables, high platelet counts, high mean cell hemoglobin concentrations, low albumin levels, and low blood urea nitrogen values were identified as having an elevated influence and association with future surgery., Conclusions: Using machine learning methods that incorporate current and historical data can predict the future risk of CD surgery., (© 2021 Crohn’s & Colitis Foundation. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Crohn’s & Colitis Foundation.)

Purpose: Noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) is a global issue that impacts people's life and health. The current review aims to clarify the contributions and limitations of applying machine learning (ML) to predict NIHL by analyzing the performance of different ML techniques and the procedure of model construction., Methods: The authors searched PubMed, EMBASE and Scopus on November 26, 2020., Results: Eight studies were recruited in the current review following defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Sample size in the selected studies ranged between 150 and 10,567. The most popular models were artificial neural networks (n = 4), random forests (n = 3) and support vector machines (n = 3). Features mostly correlated with NIHL and used in the models were: age (n = 6), duration of noise exposure (n = 5) and noise exposure level (n = 4). Five included studies used either split-sample validation (n = 3) or ten-fold cross-validation (n = 2). Assessment of accuracy ranged in value from 75.3% to 99% with a low prediction error/root-mean-square error in 3 studies. Only 2 studies measured discrimination risk using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and/or the area under ROC curve., Conclusion: In spite of high accuracy and low prediction error of machine learning models, some improvement can be expected from larger sample sizes, multiple algorithm use, completed reports of model construction and the sufficient evaluation of calibration and discrimination risk.

Objective: To establish a machine learning (ML)-based prediction model for readmission within 30 days (early readmission or early readmission) of patients based on their profile at index hospitalization for esophagectomy., Methods: Using the National Readmission Database, 383 patients requiring early readmission out of a total of 2037 esophagectomy patients alive at discharge in 2016 were identified. Early readmission risk factors were identified using standard statistics and after the application of ML methodology, the models were interpreted., Results: Early readmission after esophagectomy connoted an increased severity score and risk of mortality. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and malnutrition as well as postoperative prolonged intubation, pneumonia, acute kidney failure, and length of stay were identified as factors most contributing to increased odds of early readmission. The reasons for early readmission were more likely to be cardiopulmonary complications, anastomotic leak, and sepsis/infection. Patients with upper esophageal neoplasms had significantly higher early readmission and patients who received pyloroplasty/pyloromyotomy had significantly lower early readmission. Two ML models to predict early readmission were generated: 1 with 71.7% sensitivity for clinical decision making and the other with 84.8% accuracy and 98.7% specificity for quality review., Conclusions: We identified risk factors for early readmission after esophagectomy and introduced ML-based techniques to predict early readmission in 2 different settings: clinical decision making and quality review. ML techniques can be utilized to provide targeted support and standardize quality measures., (Copyright © 2020 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Usually, arterial oxygenation in patients with the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) improves substantially by increasing the level of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP). Herein, we are proposing a novel variable [PaO 2 /(FiO 2 xPEEP) or P/FP E ] for PEEP ≥ 5 to address Berlin's definition gap for ARDS severity by using machine learning (ML) approaches., Methods: We examined P/FP E values delimiting the boundaries of mild, moderate, and severe ARDS. We applied ML to predict ARDS severity after onset over time by comparing current Berlin PaO 2 /FiO 2 criteria with P/FP E under three different scenarios. We extracted clinical data from the first 3 ICU days after ARDS onset (N = 2738, 1519, and 1341 patients, respectively) from MIMIC-III database according to Berlin criteria for severity. Then, we used the multicenter database eICU (2014-2015) and extracted data from the first 3 ICU days after ARDS onset (N = 5153, 2981, and 2326 patients, respectively). Disease progression in each database was tracked along those 3 ICU days to assess ARDS severity. Three robust ML classification techniques were implemented using Python 3.7 (LightGBM, RF, and XGBoost) for predicting ARDS severity over time., Results: P/FP E ratio outperformed PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio in all ML models for predicting ARDS severity after onset over time (MIMIC-III: AUC 0.711-0.788 and CORR 0.376-0.566; eICU: AUC 0.734-0.873 and CORR 0.511-0.745)., Conclusions: The novel P/FP E ratio to assess ARDS severity after onset over time is markedly better than current PaO 2 /FiO 2 criteria. The use of P/FP E could help to manage ARDS patients with a more precise therapeutic regimen for each ARDS category of severity.

Reproductive toxicity endpoints are a significant safety concern in the assessment of the adverse effects of chemicals in drug discovery. Computational models that can accurately predict a chemical's toxic potential are increasingly pursued to replace traditional animal experiments. Thus, ensemble learning models were built to predict the reproductive toxicity of compounds. Our ensemble models were developed using support vector machine, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting methods and 9 molecular fingerprints calculated for a dataset containing 1823 chemicals. The best prediction performance was achieved by the Ensemble-Top12 model, with an accuracy (ACC) of 86.33 %, a sensitivity (SEN) of 82.02 %, a specificity (SPE) of 90.19 %, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.937 in 5-fold cross-validation and ACC, SEN, SPE, and AUC values of 84.38 %, 86.90 %, 90.67 %, and 0.920, respectively, in external validation. We also defined the applicability domain (AD) of the ensemble model by calculating the Tanimoto distance of the training set. Compared with models in existing literature, our ensemble model achieves relatively high ACC, SPE and AUC values. We also identified several fingerprint features related to chemical reproductive toxicity. Considering the performance of model, we recommend using the Ensemble-Top12 model to predict reproductive toxicity in early drug development., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Digitalization of the medical record and integration of genomic methods into clinical practice have resulted in an unprecedented wealth of data. Machine learning is a subdomain of artificial intelligence that attempts to computationally extract meaningful insights from complex data structures. Applications of machine learning in haematological scenarios are steadily increasing. However, basic concepts are often unfamiliar to clinicians and investigators. The purpose of this review is to provide readers with tools to interpret and critically appraise machine learning literature. We begin with the elucidation of standard terminology and then review examples in haematology. Guidelines for designing and evaluating machine-learning studies are provided. Finally, we discuss limitations of the machine-learning approach., (© 2020 British Society for Haematology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Metals are considered to be one of the most hazardous substances due to their potential for accumulation, magnification, persistence, and wide distribution in water, sediments, and aquatic organisms. Demersal fish species, such as turbot ( Psetta maxima maeotica ), are accepted by the scientific communities as suitable bioindicators of heavy metal pollution in the aquatic environment. The present study uses a machine learning approach, which is based on multiple linear and non-linear models, in order to effectively estimate the concentrations of heavy metals in both turbot muscle and liver tissues. For multiple linear regression (MLR) models, the stepwise method was used, while non-linear models were developed by applying random forest (RF) algorithm. The models were based on data that were provided from scientific literature, attributed to 11 heavy metals (As, Ca, Cd, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Zn) from both muscle and liver tissues of turbot exemplars. Significant MLR models were recorded for Ca, Fe, Mg, and Na in muscle tissue and K, Cu, Zn, and Na in turbot liver tissue. The non-linear tree-based RF prediction models (over 70% prediction accuracy) were identified for As, Cd, Cu, K, Mg, and Zn in muscle tissue and As, Ca, Cd, Mg, and Fe in turbot liver tissue. Both machine learning MLR and non-linear tree-based RF prediction models were identified to be suitable for predicting the heavy metal concentration from both turbot muscle and liver tissues. The models can be used for improving the knowledge and economic efficiency of linked heavy metals food safety and environment pollution studies.

Purpose: To assess whether machine learning methods provide advantage over classic statistical modeling for the prediction of IVF outcomes., Methods: The study population consisted of 136 women undergoing a fresh IVF cycle from January 2014 to August 2016 at a tertiary, university-affiliated medical center. We tested the ability of two machine learning algorithms, support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (NN), vs. classic statistics (logistic regression) to predict IVF outcomes (number of oocytes retrieved, mature oocytes, top-quality embryos, positive beta-hCG, clinical pregnancies, and live births) based on age and BMI, with or without clinical data., Results: Machine learning algorithms (SVM and NN) based on age, BMI, and clinical features yielded better performances in predicting number of oocytes retrieved, mature oocytes, fertilized oocytes, top-quality embryos, positive beta-hCG, clinical pregnancies, and live births, compared with logistic regression models. While accuracies were 0.69 to 0.9 and 0.45 to 0.77 for NN and SVM, respectively, they were 0.34 to 0.74 using logistic regression models., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that machine learning algorithms based on age, BMI, and clinical data have an advantage over logistic regression for the prediction of IVF outcomes and therefore can assist fertility specialists' counselling and their patients in adjusting the appropriate treatment strategy.

The accurate identification and prediction of high-cost Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients is important for addressing the economic burden of COPD. The objectives of this study were to use machine learning approaches to identify and predict potential high-cost patients and explore the key variables of the forecasting model, by comparing differences in the predictive performance of different variable sets. Machine learning approaches were used to estimate the medical costs of COPD patients using the Medical Insurance Data of a large city in western China. The prediction models used were logistic regression, random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). All three models had good predictive performance. The XGBoost model outperformed the others. The areas under the ROC curve for Logistic Regression, RF and XGBoost were 0.787, 0.792 and 0.801. The precision and accuracy metrics indicated that the methods achieved correct and reliable results. The results of this study can be used by healthcare data analysts, policy makers, insurers, and healthcare planners to improve the delivery of health services.

Phaeochromocytomas and paragangliomas (PPGLs) are rare neuroendocrine tumours with a hereditary background in over one-third of patients. Mutations in succinate dehydrogenase (SDH) genes increase the risk for PPGLs and several other tumours. Mutations in subunit B (SDHB) in particular are a risk factor for metastatic disease, further highlighting the importance of identifying SDHx mutations for patient management. Genetic variants of unknown significance, where implications for the patient and family members are unclear, are a problem for interpretation. For such cases, reliable methods for evaluating protein functionality are required. Immunohistochemistry for SDHB (SDHB-IHC) is the method of choice but does not assess functionality at the enzymatic level. Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry-based measurements of metabolite precursors and products of enzymatic reactions provide an alternative method. Here, we compare SDHB-IHC with metabolite profiling in 189 tumours from 187 PPGL patients. Besides evaluating succinate:fumarate ratios (SFRs), machine learning algorithms were developed to establish predictive models for interpreting metabolite data. Metabolite profiling showed higher diagnostic specificity compared to SDHB-IHC (99.2% versus 92.5%, p = 0.021), whereas sensitivity was comparable. Application of machine learning algorithms to metabolite profiles improved predictive ability over that of the SFR, in particular for hard-to-interpret cases of head and neck paragangliomas (AUC 0.9821 versus 0.9613, p = 0.044). Importantly, the combination of metabolite profiling with SDHB-IHC has complementary utility, as SDHB-IHC correctly classified all but one of the false negatives from metabolite profiling strategies, while metabolite profiling correctly classified all but one of the false negatives/positives from SDHB-IHC. From 186 tumours with confirmed status of SDHx variant pathogenicity, the combination of the two methods resulted in 185 correct predictions, highlighting the benefits of both strategies for patient management. © 2020 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland., (© 2020 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.)

Background: The use of machine learning techniques to predict diseases outcomes has grown significantly in the last decade. Several studies prove that the machine learning predictive techniques outperform the classical multivariate techniques. We aimed to build a machine learning predictive model to predict the in-hospital mortality for patients who sustained Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI)., Methods: Adult patients with TBI who were hospitalized in the level 1 trauma center in the period from January 2014 to February 2019 were included in this study. Patients' demographics, injury characteristics and CT findings were used as predictors. The predictive performance of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) was evaluated in terms of accuracy, Area Under the Curve (AUC), sensitivity, precision, Negative Predictive Value (NPV), specificity and F-score., Results: A total of 1620 eligible patients were included in the study (1417 survival and 203 non-survivals). Both models achieved accuracy over 91% and AUC over 93%. SVM achieved the optimal performance with accuracy 95.6% and AUC 96%., Conclusions: for prediction of mortality in patients with TBI, SVM outperformed the well-known classical models that utilized the conventional multivariate analytical techniques.

Purpose: The relationship between external load and creatine-kinase (CK) response at the team/position or individual level using Global Positioning Systems (GPS) has been studied. This study aimed to compare GPS-derived and Football Movement Profile (FMP) –derived CK-prediction models for national-team soccer players. The second aim was to compare the performance of general and individualized CK prediction models. Methods: Four hundred forty-four national-team soccer players (under 15 [U15] to senior) were monitored during training sessions and matches using GPS. CK was measured every morning from whole blood. The players had 19.3 (18.1) individual GPS-CK pairs, resulting in a total of 8570 data points. Machine learning models were built using (1) GPS-derived or (2) FMP-based parameters or (3) the combination of the 2 to predict the following days' CK value. The performance of general and individual-specific prediction models was compared. The performance of the models was described by R2 and the root-mean-square error (RMSE, in units per liter for CK values). Results: The FMP model (R2 =.60, RMSE = 144.6 U/L) performed similarly to the GPS-based model (R2 =.62, RMSE = 141.2 U/L) and the combination of the 2 (R2 =.62, RMSE = 140.3 U/L). The prediction power of the general model was better on average (R2 =.57 vs R2 =.37) and for 73% of the players than the individualized model. Conclusions: The results suggest that FMP-based CK-prediction models perform similarly to those based on GPS-derived metrics. General machine learning models' prediction power was higher than those of the individual-specific models. These findings can be used to monitor postmatch recovery strategies and to optimize weekly training periodization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of Industry 4.0, many production scenarios utilise sensors to monitor manufacturing processes, resulting in massive data that can be leveraged to build machine-learning models to improve production efficiency and quality. In semiconductor manufacturing, where many sensors are employed to monitor the production process, the resulting multi-sensor data poses challenges for constructing a virtual metrology (VM) model to assess wafer quality. Furthermore, building separate prediction models for each sensor can result in a loss of redundancy present in the multi-sensor data. Therefore, this paper proposes a multi-source AdaBoost with a cross-weight sampling method for predicting the critical dimension required in VM. Compared with the existing AdaBoost algorithm in regression, the proposed method adapts well to multi-source data by incorporating a cross-weight sampling distribution. Thus, when updating the sampling weight distribution, the impact of both individual and multi-source data is considered to re-sample high-quality observations. Based on the numerical results from the synthetic datasets and case study in semiconductor manufacturing, the proposed method outperforms benchmark methods. Additionally, owing to the redundancy of multi-sensor data, the proposed method demonstrates robust performance regardless of the noise level in the semiconductor VM data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar interfacial evaporation, as a novel practical freshwater production method, requires continuous research on how to improve the evaporation rates to increase water production. In this study, sets of data were obtained from molecule dynamics simulation and literature, in which the parameters included height, diameter, height–radius ratio, evaporation efficiency, and evaporation rate. Initially, the correlation between the four input parameters and the output of the evaporation rate was examined through traditional pairwise plots and Pearson correlation analysis, revealing weak correlations. Subsequently, the accuracy and generalization performance of the evaporation rate prediction models established by neural network and random forest were compared, with the latter demonstrating superior performance and reliability confirmed via random data extraction. Furthermore, the impact of different percentages (10%, 20%, and 30%) of the data on the model performance was explored, and the result indicated that the model performance is better when the test set is 20% and all the constructed model converge. Moreover, the mean absolute error and mean squared error of the evaporation rate prediction model for the three ratios were calculated to evaluate their performance. However, the relationship between the height- radius ratio and optimal evaporation rate was investigated using the enumeration method, and it was determined that the evaporation efficiency was optimal when the height–radius ratio was 6. Finally, the importance of height, diameter, height– radius ratio, and evaporation efficiency were calculated to optimize evaporator structure, increase evaporation rate, and facilitate the application of interfacial evaporation in solar desalination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop an approach that combines the estimation of monthly firm-level expected returns with an assignment of firms to (possibly) latent groups, both based on observable characteristics, using machine learning principles with linear models. The best-performing methods are flexible two-stage sparse models that capture group-membership predictive relationships. Portfolios formed to exploit such group-varying predictions based on a parsimonious set of characteristics deliver economically meaningful returns with low turnover. We propose statistical tests based on nonparametric bootstrapping for our results, and detail how different characteristics may matter for different groups of firms, making comparisons to the existing literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To evaluate statistical models developed for predicting medal-winning performances for international swimming events and generate updated performance predictions for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. Methods: The performance of 2 statistical models developed for predicting international swimming performances was evaluated. The first model employed linear regression and forecasting to examine performance trends among medal winners, finalists, and semifinalists over an 8-year period. A machine-learning algorithm was used to generate time predictions for each individual event for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. The second model was a Bayesian framework and comprised an autoregressive term (the previous winning time), moving average (past 3 events), and covariates for stroke, gender, distance, and type of event (World Championships vs Olympic Games). To examine the accuracy of the predictions from both models, the mean absolute error was determined between the predicted times for the Budapest 2022 World Championships and the actual results from said championships. Results: The mean absolute error for prediction of swimming performances was 0.80% for the linear-regression machine-learning model and 0.85% for the Bayesian model. The predicted times and actual times from the Budapest 2022 World Championships were highly correlated (r =.99 for both approaches). Conclusions: These models, and associated predictions for swimming events at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, provide an evidence-based performance framework for coaches, sport-science support staff, and athletes to develop and evaluate training plans, strategies, and tactics, as well as informing resource allocation to athletes, based on their potential for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Cognitive decline is often considered an inevitable aspect of aging; however, recent research has identified a subset of older adults known as "superagers" who maintain cognitive abilities comparable to those of younger individuals. Investigating the neurobiological characteristics associated with superior cognitive function in superagers is essential for understanding "successful aging." Evidence suggests that the gut microbiome plays a key role in brain function, forming a bidirectional communication network known as the microbiome-gut-brain axis. Alterations in the gut microbiome have been linked to cognitive aging markers such as oxidative stress and inflammation. This study aims to investigate the unique patterns of the gut microbiome in superagers and to develop machine learning-based predictive models to differentiate superagers from typical agers. Methods: We recruited 161 cognitively unimpaired, community-dwelling volunteers aged 60 years or from dementia prevention centers in Seoul, South Korea. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, 115 participants were included in the study. Following the removal of microbiome data outliers, 102 participants, comprising 57 superagers and 45 typical agers, were finally analyzed. Superagers were defined based on memory performance at or above average normative values of middle-aged adults. Gut microbiome data were collected from stool samples, and microbial DNA was extracted and sequenced. Relative abundances of bacterial genera were used as features for model development. We employed the LightGBM algorithm to build predictive models and utilized SHAP analysis for feature importance and interpretability. Results: The predictive model achieved an AUC of 0.832 and accuracy of 0.764 in the training dataset, and an AUC of 0.861 and accuracy of 0.762 in the test dataset. Significant microbiome features for distinguishing superagers included Alistipes, PAC001137_g, PAC001138_g, Leuconostoc, and PAC001115_g. SHAP analysis revealed that higher abundances of certain genera, such as PAC001138_g and PAC001115_g, positively influenced the likelihood of being classified as superagers. Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate the machine learning-based predictive models using gut-microbiome features can differentiate superagers from typical agers with a reasonable performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neonatal sepsis is a severe medical condition that contributes significantly to neonatal mortality. However, early diagnosis and treatment can help manage the condition effectively. Predictive analytics can assist neonatal sepsis diagnosis and treatment and offer a reassuring solution. This study presents a systematic literature review of various predictive analytics methods for neonatal sepsis diagnosis and treatment. It thoroughly reviews 16 studies between 2014 and 2024, including retrospective and prospective data and utilizing various predictive modeling techniques, such as Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL). The review unveils that the Predictive analytics models can rapidly detect early and late-onset neonatal sepsis. This detection aids clinicians in decision-making and improves healthcare management for neonates, especially in low-resource settings. This study lays the groundwork for utilizing advanced analytics technologies to address challenges in this domain. It inspires further research in innovative and unexplored methods for neonatal sepsis diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Catheter-related bladder discomfort (CRBD) commonly occurs in patients who have indwelling urinary catheters while under general anesthesia. And moderate-to-severe CRBD can lead to significant adverse events and negatively impact patient health outcomes. However, current screening studies for patients experiencing moderate-to-severe CRBD after waking from general anesthesia are insufficient. Constructing predictive models with higher accuracy using multiple machine learning techniques for early identification of patients at risk of experiencing moderate-to-severe CRBD during general anesthesia resuscitation. Methods: Eight hundred forty-six patients with indwelling urinary catheters who were resuscitated in a post-anesthesia care unit (PACU). Trained researchers used the CRBD 4-level assessment method to evaluate the severity of a patient's CRBD. They then inputted 24 predictors into six different machine learning algorithms. The performance of the models was evaluated using metrics like the area under the curve (AUC). Results: The AUCs of the six models ranged from 0.82 to 0.89. Among them, the RF model displayed the highest predictive ability, with an AUC of 0.89 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.91). Additionally, it achieved an accuracy of 0.93 (95%CI: 0.91, 0.95), 0.80 sensitivity, 0.98 specificity, 0.94 positive predictive value (PPV), 0.92 negative predictive value (NPV), 0.87 F1 score, and 0.07 Brier score. The logistic regression (LR) model has achieved good results (AUC:0.87) and converted into a nomogram. Conclusions: The study has successfully developed a machine learning prediction model that exhibits excellent predictive capabilities in identifying patients who may develop moderate-to-severe CRBD after undergoing general anesthesia. Furthermore, the study also presents a nomogram, which serves as a valuable tool for clinical healthcare professionals, enabling them to intervene at an early stage for better patient outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Material and Methods Results Conclusion Machine learning models have shown promising potential in individual‐level outcome prediction for patients with psychosis, but also have several limitations. To address some of these limitations, we present a model that predicts multiple outcomes, based on longitudinal patient data, while integrating prediction uncertainty to facilitate more reliable clinical decision‐making.We devised a recurrent neural network architecture incorporating long short‐term memory (LSTM) units to facilitate outcome prediction by leveraging multimodal baseline variables and clinical data collected at multiple time points. To account for model uncertainty, we employed a novel fuzzy logic approach to integrate the level of uncertainty into individual predictions. We predicted antipsychotic treatment outcomes in 446 first‐episode psychosis patients in the OPTiMiSE study, for six different clinical scenarios. The treatment outcome measures assessed at both week 4 and week 10 encompassed symptomatic remission, clinical global remission, and functional remission.Using only baseline predictors to predict different outcomes at week 4, leave‐one‐site‐out validation AUC ranged from 0.62 to 0.66; performance improved when clinical data from week 1 was added (AUC = 0.66–0.71). For outcome at week 10, using only baseline variables, the models achieved AUC = 0.56–0.64; using data from more time points (weeks 1, 4, and 6) improved the performance to AUC = 0.72–0.74. After incorporating prediction uncertainties and stratifying the model decisions based on model confidence, we could achieve accuracies above 0.8 for ~50% of patients in five out of the six clinical scenarios.We constructed prediction models utilizing a recurrent neural network architecture tailored to clinical scenarios derived from a time series dataset. One crucial aspect we incorporated was the consideration of uncertainty in individual predictions, which enhances the reliability of decision‐making based on the model's output. We provided evidence showcasing the significance of leveraging time series data for achieving more accurate treatment outcome prediction in the field of psychiatry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Adverse events of the fractured vertebra (AEFV) post-percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP) can lead to recurrent pain and neurological damage, which considerably affect the prognosis of patients and the quality of life. This study aimed to analyze the risk factors of AEFV and develop and select the optimal risk prediction model for AEFV to provide guidance for the prevention of this condition and enhancement of clinical outcomes. Methods: This work included 383 patients with primary osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF) who underwent PKP. The patients were grouped based on the occurrence of AEFV postsurgery, and data were collected. Group comparisons and correlation analysis were conducted to identify potential risk factors, which were then included in the five prediction models. The performance indicators served as basis for the selection of the best model. Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed the following independent risk factors for AEFV: kissing spine (odds ratio (OR) = 8.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46–49.02), high paravertebral muscle fat infiltration grade (OR = 29.19, 95% CI 4.83–176.04), vertebral body computed tomography value (OR = 0.02, 95% CI 0.003–0.13, P < 0.001), and large Cobb change (OR = 5.31, 95% CI 1.77–15.77). The support vector machine (SVM) model exhibited the best performance in the prediction of the risk of AEFV. Conclusion: Four independent risk factors were identified of AEFV, and five risk prediction models that can aid clinicians in the accurate identification of high-risk patients and prediction of the occurrence of AEFV were developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the importance of moisture content in cement-stabilized earth blocks (CSEBs) and explores methods for their prediction using machine learning. A key aspect of the research is the development of accurate moisture content prediction models. The study compares the performance of various machine learning models, and XGBoost emerges as the most promising model, demonstrating superior accuracy in predicting moisture content based on factors like soil properties, cement content, and ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV). The study employs SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to understand how these features influence the model's predictions. UPV is the most significant factor affecting predicted moisture content, followed by cement content and soil properties like uniformity coefficient. Also, the study explores the possibility of using a reduced set of features for moisture content prediction. They demonstrate that a combination of UPV, cement content, and uniformity coefficient can achieve good accuracy, highlighting the potential for practical applications where obtaining all data points might be challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long COVID shares a number of clinical features with myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS), including post-exertional malaise, severe fatigue, and neurocognitive deficits. Utilizing validated assessment tools that accurately and efficiently screen for these conditions can facilitate diagnostic and treatment efforts, thereby improving patient outcomes. In this study, we generated a series of random forest machine learning algorithms to evaluate the psychometric properties of the DePaul Symptom Questionnaire-Short Form (DSQ-SF) in classifying large groups of adults with Long COVID, ME/CFS (without Long COVID), and healthy controls. We demonstrated that the DSQ-SF can accurately classify these populations with high degrees of sensitivity and specificity. In turn, we identified the particular DSQ-SF symptom items that best distinguish Long COVID from ME/CFS, as well as those that differentiate these illness groups from healthy controls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately predicting traffic accident severity is crucial for road safety. However, existing studies lack interpretability in revealing the relationship between accident severity and key factors. To address this issue, we propose a new interpretable analytical framework. The framework utilizes XGBoost and SHAP to select effective factors. Then the AISTGCN model is constructed by improving the STGCN through the local attention mechanism to predict the severity of the accident. Finally, DeepLIFT is used to interpret the forecasts and identify key factors. Our experiments using real-world UK accident data demonstrate that our proposed AISTGCN outperforms baseline models in outcome prediction with an accuracy of 0.8772. The computation time was reduced and the reliability of predictions was enhanced through screening for effective factors. Furthermore, DeepLIFT provides more reasonable explanations when explaining accidents of different severity, indicating that vehicle count significantly impacts. Our framework aids in developing effective safety measures to reduce accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimation of natural gas consumption plays a crucial role in energy planning, economic stability, environmental protection, and investment decisions. Despite numerous predictive studies related to natural gas consumption, most of these studies focus on univariate prediction tasks, lacking a reasonable and efficient multivariate prediction approach. To obtain precise forecasting results, this paper constructs a new adaptive grey multivariate prediction model called AGMPM(r,N) based on the fractional-order accumulation operation and grey system theory. It is found that AGMPM(r,N) can degenerate into some grey multivariable prediction models by replacing its own hyperparameters, which reflects its uniformity. In addition, the new model is unbiased for some special time series. In particular, the grey wolf optimizer is used to facilitate the model solution process. To validate the effectiveness of AGMPM(r,N), AGMPM(r,N) and 27 competing algorithms (9 natural gas consumption prediction methods, 10 multivariate prediction models, 7 machine learning algorithms and a statistical predictive model) are used to study the natural gas consumption in China. In addition, ablation experiments are executed. The results of experimental analysis show that the MAPE and MAE of AGMPM(r,N) are 2.795% and 89.880, respectively, which are superior to all competing methods and ablation models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In South Africa, between 1966 and 2014, there were three kidney transplant eras defined by evolving access to certain immunosuppressive therapies defined as Pre-CYA (before availability of cyclosporine), CYA (when cyclosporine became available), and New-Gen (availability of tacrolimus and mycophenolic acid). As such, factors influencing kidney graft failure may vary across these eras. Therefore, evaluating the consistency and reproducibility of models developed to study these variations using machine learning (ML) algorithms could enhance our understanding of post-transplant graft survival dynamics across these three eras. Methods: This study explored the effectiveness of nine ML algorithms in predicting 10-year graft survival across the three eras. We developed and internally validated these algorithms using data spanning the specified eras. The predictive performance of these algorithms was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC), supported by other evaluation metrics. We employed local interpretable model-agnostic explanations to provide detailed interpretations of individual model predictions and used permutation importance to assess global feature importance across each era. Results: Overall, the proportion of graft failure decreased from 41.5% in the Pre-CYA era to 15.1% in the New-Gen era. Our best-performing model across the three eras demonstrated high predictive accuracy. Notably, the ensemble models, particularly the Extra Trees model, emerged as standout performers, consistently achieving high AUC scores of 0.95, 0.95, and 0.97 across the eras. This indicates that the models achieved high consistency and reproducibility in predicting graft survival outcomes. Among the features evaluated, recipient age and donor age were the only features consistently influencing graft failure throughout these eras, while features such as glomerular filtration rate and recipient ethnicity showed high importance in specific eras, resulting in relatively poor historical transportability of the best model. Conclusions: Our study emphasises the significance of analysing post-kidney transplant outcomes and identifying era-specific factors mitigating graft failure. The proposed framework can serve as a foundation for future research and assist physicians in identifying patients at risk of graft failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continuously reinforced concrete pavement (CRCP), crucial for the resilience of transportation infrastructure owing to its continuous steel reinforcement, confronts a critical challenge in the form of spalling—a distress phenomenon posing a threat to pavement durability and overall structural integrity. The detachment or breakage of concrete from the surface compromises CRCP's functionality and raises safety concerns and escalating maintenance costs. To address this pressing issue, our study investigates the multifaceted factors influencing spalling, employing a comprehensive approach that integrates statistical and machine learning techniques for predictive modeling. Descriptive statistics meticulously profile the dataset, emphasizing age, thickness, precipitation, temperature, and traffic parameters. Regression analysis unveils key relationships, emphasizing the significance of age, annual temperature, annual precipitation, maximum humidity, and the initial International Roughness Index (IRI) as influential factors. The correlation matrix heatmap guides feature selection, elucidating intricate interdependencies. Simultaneously, feature importance analysis identifies age, Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT), and total pavement thickness as crucial contributors to spalling. In machine learning, adopting models, including Gaussian Process Regression and ensemble tree models, is grounded in their diverse capabilities and suitability for the complex task at hand. Their varying predictive accuracies underscore the importance of judicious model selection. This research advances pavement engineering practices by offering nuanced insights into factors influencing spalling in CRCP, refining our understanding of spalling influences. Consequently, the study not only opens avenues for developing improved predictive methodologies but also enhances the durability of CRCP infrastructure, addressing broader implications for informed decision-making in transportation infrastructure management. The selection of Gaussian Process Regression and ensemble tree models stems from their adaptability to capture intricate relationships within the dataset, and their comparative performance provides valuable insights into the diverse predictive capabilities of these models in the context of CRCP spalling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global prevalence of diabetes is escalating, with estimates indicating that over 536.6 million individuals were afflicted by 2021, accounting for approximately 10.5% of the world's population. Effective management of diabetes, particularly monitoring and prediction of blood glucose levels, remains a significant challenge due to the severe health risks associated with inaccuracies, such as hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia. This study addresses this critical issue by employing a hybrid Transformer-LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model designed to enhance the accuracy of future glucose level predictions based on data from Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) systems. This innovative approach aims to reduce the risk of diabetic complications and improve patient outcomes. We utilized a dataset which contain more than 32000 data points comprising CGM data from eight patients collected by Suzhou Municipal Hospital in Jiangsu Province, China. This dataset includes historical glucose readings and equipment calibration values, making it highly suitable for developing predictive models due to its richness and real-time applicability. Our findings demonstrate that the hybrid Transformer-LSTM model significantly outperforms the standard LSTM model, achieving Mean Square Error (MSE) values of 1.18, 1.70, and 2.00 at forecasting intervals of 15, 30, and 45 minutes, respectively. This research underscores the potential of advanced machine learning techniques in the proactive management of diabetes, a critical step toward mitigating its impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the uncertainty of geological conditions during the tunneling process, advanced prediction of TBM tunneling parameters is significant for evaluating operational safety and efficiency, especially for real-time prediction of key tunneling parameters during the steady phase of TBM operation. At present, although there are studies on constructing predictive models based on machine learning algorithms, multiparameter prediction consistent with the actual tunneling process remains challenging due to the complexity of the TBM tunneling process and the numerous tunneling parameters. Therefore, this paper proposes a real-time multiple tunneling parameters prediction method of TBM steady phase based on dual recurrent neural networks. Firstly, the irregular multidimensional time series of tunneling parameters are analyzed and processed, which are divided into an idle-push phase, a rising phase, and a steady phase; secondly, the parameters of rising phase are analyzed using a recurrent neural network, and the parameters relevant for constructing a real-time prediction model are screened; then, based on the screened parameters, the Bayesian-optimized gated recurrent unit (GRU, a kind of recursive neural network) is proposed to construct a real-time prediction model for the four key tunneling parameters during the steady phase. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed method are demonstrated by verification on real TBM tunnel datasets and comparing it with the models constructed by six commonly used machine learning algorithms. The results of this paper show that the designed prediction method is able to achieve a good combination of performance in terms of accuracy and computational time-consumption, with an average prediction accuracy of 91.1% for the four parameters for different rock grades of geology, the multiparameter prediction time for 100 samples is only 11 ms. In addition, three current similar studies using deep learning methods were compared to demonstrate the superiority of this proposal. As a method more closer to practical application, this work provides guidance for the forward-looking prediction of TBM tunneling parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]