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This paper addresses uncertainty in socio-economic and sediment-nutrient models that are being developed for the assessment of change in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) area. The catchments draining into the GBR lagoon are sources of pollutants. The Reef Water Quality Management Plan of the Queensland Government identified sediments and nutrients transported to the GBR lagoon as the major long-term threats to the reef and inshore ecosystems and the wellbeing of the human communities. The plan clearly indicates that changes in land management are required by 2013 to reduce pollutant inputs and, at the same time, maintain or enhance the benefits from using the inland waters. Science that provides decision tools for natural resource management and improves socio-economic and biophysical understanding is required to enable managers to make better decisions. A major research activity (the Water for a Healthy Country Flagship) aims to address social, economic and biophysical outcomes of land management change in the GBR. It contains research activities that provide information for integrated model development. Currently, however, these models lack the ability to estimate the uncertainty associated with prediction. This project aims to provide statistical methods for assessing uncertainty in models of sediment transportation to the GBR. Furthermore, it provides a link between the models and the decision-making process that allows assessment of uncertainty, a step pertinent to the risk analysis of policy options. This paper describes current and ongoing approaches for assessing uncertainty using a sediment modelling example and provides a way forward for the integration of applied socio-economic and biophysical models used in the decision-making process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Targets for improvements in water quality entering the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have been set through the Reef Water Quality Protection Plan (Reef Plan). To measure and report on progress towards the targets set a program has been established that combines monitoring and modelling at paddock through to catchment and reef scales; the Paddock to Reef Integrated Monitoring, Modelling and Reporting Program (Paddock to Reef Program). This program aims to provide evidence of links between land management activities, water quality and reef health. Five lines of evidence are used: the effectiveness of management practices to improve water quality; the prevalence of management practice adoption and change in catchment indicators; long-term monitoring of catchment water quality; paddock & catchment modelling to provide a relative assessment of progress towards meeting targets; and finally marine monitoring of GBR water quality and reef ecosystem health. This paper outlines the first four lines of evidence. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The use of landholder typologies to assist in the development of natural resource management (NRM) policies and agricultural extension programs has increased considerably in the past decade. In this paper we explore the potential of developing a typology of graziers to more effectively tailor policies and programs with the aim of improving land management outcomes. This is of particular importance since growing public concern about the environmental performance of the beef industry has led to increasing pressures on graziers to change their land management practices to decrease off-property impacts. To gain a better understanding of graziers’ land management practices and the factors that inform their decisions on how they manage their land we first developed a conceptual model of the relationship between grazier and grazing land where both can, ideally, thrive through conscious and timely land management decisions made and implemented by the grazier. A successful grazier land relationship is likely to be consistent with value systems and social and economic factors, although the particulars of any individual approach may vary spatially and temporally. These factors, in particular graziers’ values and motivations to follow a particular management strategy, guided the development of our typology of graziers. Australia''s Bowen-Broken basin, which has been identified as a major contributor of sediment and nutrients that enter the Great Barrier Reef lagoon, served as a case study for this research. Three broad types of graziers emerged: (1) traditionalists, (2) diversifiers, and (3) innovators. The authors argue that by understanding graziers’ values and motivations underlying each of the grazier types, government agencies and NRM organisations can more effectively tailor their policy and extension programs towards specific types of graziers and can work with specific groups to achieve reductions in sediment and nutrient runoff from grazing properties. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: In many agricultural regions investments are made into improved land management and catchment restoration with the aim of reducing sediment and nutrient delivery to downstream water bodies. This paper presents the results of an 8year field study that evaluated the impact of improved grazing land management (GLM) on a 14km2 sub-catchment of the Burdekin River in northern Australia. Land condition recovery and changes to runoff and sediment yield were measured on hillslopes (using three flumes) and at the end of the catchment (using automatic water sampling). Ground cover was monitored at the beginning of the wet season at hillslope and catchment scales using direct measurement and Quickbird satellite imagery. At the catchment scale, improved GLM resulted in an increase in mean ground cover between 2003 and 2007, relative to a control grazing property. However, the total suspended sediment yield from hillslopes did not decline due to the disproportionately high yields from low (<10%) cover sites particularly in high runoff years. In 2007, when there was above-average rainfall, 97% of the hillslope derived fine sediment was coming from less than 3% of the catchment. Catchment sediment yield also increased, associated with higher rainfall and runoff in latter years of the study. In years of above-average rainfall, it is estimated that less than 40% of catchment sediment yield was derived from hillslope erosion. Channel erosion is considered to contribute the remaining sediment. Rehabilitation of hillslope scalds and gullies is likely to be an important companion to improved GLM to reduce catchment fine sediment yields in this landscape. Evaluation of gully and hillslope scald rehabilitation techniques is required, including the economic feasibility of such options. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Poor land condition resulting from unsustainable grazing practices can reduce enterprise profitability and increase water, sediment and associated nutrient runoff from properties and catchments. This paper presents the results of a 6year field study that used a series of hillslope flume experiments to evaluate the impact of improved grazing land management (GLM) on hillslope runoff and sediment yields. The study was carried out on a commercial grazing property in a catchment draining to the Burdekin River in northern Australia. During this study average ground cover on hillslopes increased from ∼35% to ∼75%, although average biomass and litter levels are still relatively low for this landscape type (∼60 increasing to 1100kg of dry matter per hectare). Pasture recovery was greatest on the upper and middle parts of hillslopes. Areas that did not respond to the improved grazing management had <10% cover and were on the lower slopes associated with the location of sodic soil and the initiation of gullies. Comparison of ground cover changes and soil conditions with adjacent properties suggest that grazing management, and not just improved rainfall conditions, were responsible for the improvements in ground cover in this study. The ground cover improvements resulted in progressively lower runoff coefficients for the first event in each wet season, however, runoff coefficients were not reduced at the annual time scale. The hillslope annual sediment yields declined by ∼70% on two out of three hillslopes, although where bare patches (with <10% cover) were connected to gullies and streams, annual sediment yields increased in response to higher rainfall in latter years of the study. It appears that bare patches are the primary source areas for both runoff and erosion on these hillslopes. Achieving further reductions in runoff and erosion in these landscapes may require management practices that improve ground cover and biomass in bare areas, particularly when they are located adjacent to concentrated drainage lines. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

To protect and improve water quality in the Great Barrier Reef, the Queensland Government's Reef 2050 Water Quality Improvement Plan targets that 90% of sugarcane, horticulture, cropping and grazing lands in priority areas be managed using best management practices for sediment, nutrient and pesticides by 2025. Progress towards this target is insufficient and variable across catchments and industries. The motivation to adopt improvements in management practices is heavily influenced by social, economic, cultural and institutional dimensions. In this paper we synthesise the literature on how these human dimensions influence decision making for land management practice and highlight where future investment could be focussed. We highlight that focussing on —1) investigating systems to support landholder decision making under climate uncertainty (risk); 2) generating a better understanding of the extent and drivers of landholder transaction cost; 3) understanding if there are competing 'right' ways to farm; and 4) improving understanding of the social processes, trust and power dynamics within GBR industries and what these means for practice change— could improve practice change uptake in the future. • Understanding human factors is essential for land practice change • Human factors include economic, social and cultural and macro institutional elements • These will affect trialling, adoption and dis-adoption of a practice [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australian and Queensland Government's Reef 2050 Water Quality Improvement Plan has set targets for improving the water quality entering the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. Given the large public investment and the deficit of data linking on-farm land management to changes in environmental outcomes, there is a need for a robust and efficient methods of quantifying links between land management and water quality. This paper explores a pragmatic approach to making this link using available data. We demonstrate that a simple parameterisation process is suitable for estimating hydrology and water quality across a wide range of land uses and management practices in agricultural landscapes. However, a manually calibrated model may still require the analysis of parameters to reduce error variances and evaluate uncertainties. Confidence in estimating hydrology and water quality in descending order is: runoff, sediment, nitrogen, phosphorous, and pesticide losses, reflecting the availability of data and inherent error propagation. • A pragmatic modelling by Howleaky is suitable to link management to water quality. • A manually calibrated model may still require a reduction in error variances. • Data availability and inherent error propagation determined confidence in modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) off Australia’s northeast coast is one of the natural wonders of the world. As a consequence it has high value, not only for biodiversity, but also for tourists who come to see the GBR and the biodiversity associated with it, bringing in over A$3.5B per annum to the Australian economy. However, there are a number of natural and anthropogenic factors that are threatening the health of the reef ecosystems. One of the major anthropogenic factors is the impact of sediments and nutrients that run off the land, via the rivers, into the lagoon of the reef. Extensive beef production is one of the major land uses of the GBR catchment, and brings in over $1B to the national economy annually and employs nearly 9,000 people, many of them in rural communities. Over 70% of terrestrial sediments and nutrients deposited in the GBR lagoon affecting the health of vulnerable reef ecosystems originate from the extensive grazing lands of Queensland’s interior. Recent research indicates that the quantity of sediments and nutrients lost from these grazing lands is strongly dependent upon grazing management practices; grazing leads to degradation of soil and vegetation resources, reduced infiltration and vegetation production. This has led to a growing concern amongst the Australian public about the environmental performance of the beef industry and increasing pressures on graziers to change their management practices to decrease the off-farm impacts. Given the constraints within the system improvements in water quality draining into the GBR lagoon can best be achieved by demonstrating the productivity and economic benefits of science-based improved grazing management practices for graziers, leading to “AllWin” outcomes for all concerned. In the longer term, only when the range of stakeholders involved approach catchments as linked biophysical, social and economic systems, will truly integrated adaptive catchment management be applied to the GBR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]