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Changes in patterns of meteorological parameters, like precipitations, temperature, wind, etc., are causing significant increases in various extreme events. And these extreme events, i.e., floods, heatwaves, hurricanes, droughts, etc., lead to a shortage of water resources, crop failures, wildfires, and economic losses. However, Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are considered the most important tools for quantifying climate change. Therefore, we selected 20 different GCMs of precipitation in our research, as the frequency of extreme events, like drought and flood, is highly related to changes in precipitation patterns. However, this research introduced a new weighting scheme — MCFSAWS-Ensemble: Monte Carlo Feature Selection Adaptive Weighting Scheme to Ensemble multiple GCMs, whereas, Monte Carlo Feature Selection (MCFS) is one of the most popular algorithms for discovering important variables. However, the proposed weighting scheme (MCFSAWS-Ensemble) is mainly based on two sources. Initially, it evaluates the prior performance of each GCM model to define their relative importance using MCFS. Then, it computes value by value difference between the observed and simulated model. In addition, the application of this paper is based on the monthly time series data of precipitation in the Tibet Plateau region of China. In addition, we used twenty GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to analyze the implications of the MCFSAWS-Ensemble. Further, we compared the performance of the MCFSAWS-Ensemble scheme with Simple Model Averaging (SMA) through Mean Average Error (MAE) and correlation statistics. The results of this research indicate that the proposed weighting scheme (MCFSAWS-Ensemble) is more accurate than the SMA approach. Consequently, we recommend the use of advanced machine learning algorithms such as MCFS for making accurate multi-model ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy not only promotes the coordinated development of China's regional economy but also generates a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions. The research and policy recommendations on agricultural carbon emissions are of great significance for China toward engendering sustainable agricultural development and appreciably contributing to the alleviation of global climate change. In this paper, agricultural carbon emissions in the Belt and Road region of China from 2003-2018 are calculated, and its spatial-temporal characteristics are analyzed. Then, we modified the logarithmic mean Divisia index model from the original four factors to six to analyze the drivers of agricultural carbon emissions. The research results obtained are as follows: (1) Total carbon emission reached a peak of 26.6326 million tons in 2016, representing a 54.53% increase from the 17.2342 million tons in 2003. Moreover, it indicated a downward trend in 2017 and dropped by approximately 4% to 25.5685 million tons in 2018. (2) Spatially, agricultural carbon emission varies greatly, with the highest value recorded in Heilongjiang and the lowest in Tibet, thereby exhibiting the characteristics of "northwest>northeast>southwest>southeast." (3) Overall, the economic factor was the most important driving factor, whereas the subsidy factor was the strongest inhibiting factor for the growth of agricultural carbon emissions. Notably, the foreign trade factor had both promoting and inhibiting effects on it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three-River-Source (TRS) National Park stands as one of China's earliest established national parks, dedicated to significant ecological responsibilities that include conserving soil and water resources in the Tibetan Plateau region. Research on climate change's influence on the TRS region's grasslands is of great significance in our efforts to comprehend and conserve the grassland ecosystem. The most effective random forest (RF) model was chosen to invert the aboveground biomass (AGB) of grassland in the previous 6 years (2015-2020) and predict the grassland AGB in the following 20 years (2021-2040) by comparing linear regression and multivariate nonlinear regression models such as RF, support vector machine, decision tree, and artificial neural network. A Theil-Sen median trend analysis and a Mann-Kendal test were then used to examine the trends of grassland AGB. The results showed that (1) RF outperformed other models in estimating grassland AGB, with a test set decision coefficient of multiple determination (R²) of 0.722, a root mean square error of 42.596 g/m², and a mean absolute error of 35.619 g/m²; (2) over 6 years, the grassland AGB in TRS National Park had a spatial trend of a steady rise from the northwest to the southeast. The average annual grassland AGB was 247.333 g/m², with averages of 44.836 g/m² , 92.601 g/m² , and 120.217 g/m² in the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River source parks respectively. The trend of the grassland AGB was primarily stabilized and slightly recovered, with a small portion of the slightly deteriorated areas; (3) climate change significantly affected grassland AGB, and when temperature and precipitation conditions were adequate, grassland AGB values increased with temperature and precipitation. In the scenarios of ssp119, ssp245, and ssp585, grassland AGB is projected to exhibit a dynamic upward trend over the next 20 years. Global warming is expected to boost grassland AGB. Comprehensive measures are essential to maintain grassland health and ensure a positive impact on global carbon and ecological balance. The study's findings hold great importance for the ecological security of the TRS region and contribute to our global understanding of sustainable grassland development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Research on population genetic patterns and potential distribution dynamics can provide insights into the development of pest management strategies. Herein, we integrated population genetic analyses with the climatic niche approach to investigate spatial population genetic variations and potential geographical distribution (PGD) of the herbivorous pest Phytomyza horticola. We also analysed its population response patterns to both late Pleistocene climatic events and future climate change. Location: China. Methods: We analysed the patterns of genetic diversity distribution in 29 populations from 19 regions across China using three mitochondrial (COI, COII and Cytb) genes as markers. We estimated demographic histories using neutrality tests, mismatch distributions and Bayesian skyline plots. Changes in PGD were assessed using an ecological niche model. Results: High genetic diversity was found in most populations, and the northern population exhibited higher haplotype diversity. The population genetic structure included the Tibet lineage and a large lineage comprising the remaining populations. Demographic analyses indicated that rapid population expansion occurred during the cold Last Glacial Maximum. In addition, our projections suggested that P. horticola currently has a vast PGD in China, for which the human influence index was the strongest variable. Large areas of cold northern regions were highly suitable for its survival. Under future global warming, highly suitable habitats will shift towards the higher latitudes. Main conclusions: P. horticola is widely distributed across varied environments, which may be attributed to its high degree of genetic variation. Human activities likely facilitated the current PGD and the frequent gene flow that homogenized differentiation among most populations. In addition, P. horticola exhibits strong adaptability to cold climates and environments from the past to the future. Considering future climatic changes, prevention and control should focus on high‐latitude regions, and vigilance regarding human‐mediated pest dispersals and outbreaks should be maintained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main portion of Tibetan Plateau has experienced statistically significant warming over the past 50 years, especially in cold seasons. This paper aims to identify and characterize the dynamics of inland lakes that located in the hinterland of Tibetan Plateau responding to climate change. We compared satellite imageries in late 1970s and early 1990s with recent to inventory and track changes in lakes after three decades of rising temperatures in the region. It showed warm and dry trend in climate with significant accelerated increasing annual mean temperature over the last 30 years, however, decreasing periodically annual precipitation and no obvious trend in potential evapotranspiration during the same period. Our analysis indicated widespread declines in inland lake's abundance and area in the whole origin of the Yellow River and southeastern origin of the Yangtze River. In contrast, the western and northern origin of the Yangtze River revealed completely reverse change. The regional lake surface area decreased by 11,499 ha or 1.72% from the late 1970s to the early 1990s, and increased by 6,866 ha or 1.04% from the early 1990s to 2004. Shrinking inland lakes may become a common feature in the discontinuous permafrost regions as a consequence of warming climate and thawing permafrost. Furthermore, obvious expanding were found in continuous permafrost regions due to climate warming and glacier retreating. The results may provide information for the scientific recognition of the responding events to the climate change recorded by the inland lakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many drainage basins adjacent to the upper Tsangpo Valley on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are pervasively gullied. These gullies expose a stratigraphic record alternating between slow aggradation and stability (i.e., soil development) for much of the Quaternary, suggesting that gullying is recent and un precedented within at least the past 10--100 k.y. In this paper, we date the initiation of gullying at five sites in the region using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). We also test alternative hypotheses for gully initiation using numerical landform evolution modeling. OSL ages constrain the initiation of gullying to be mid-to-late Holocene in age. This period coincides with the onset of pastoralism in the upper Tsangpo Valley. Numerical modeling suggests that a reduction in vegetation density during the colder, drier conditions of Pleistocene glacial intervals did not trigger gullying because the reduction in vegetation density and hence rates of colluvial deposition in valleys coincided with an unusually dry period less capable of significant fluvial erosion from valleys. As such, low-order valleys most likely did not incise prior to the mid-to-late Holocene because an approximate balance was maintained between colluvial deposition and fluvial erosion. Vegetation changes associated with the onset of pastoralism, however, may have triggered gullying because such changes lowered the rate of colluvial deposition in valleys and/or increased the rate of fluvial erosion in valleys. The results of this paper provide insight into the ways in which drainage basins respond to climatic and anthropogenic perturbations in semiarid climates of moderate relief and underscore the dramatic landscape responses that can occur when geomorphic thresholds are crossed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes 2007/2008 inter-annual changes in runoff from the Zhadang Glacier located on the northern slope of Nyainqêntanglha Range, Tibet, and analyzes their causes. Precipitation increased by 17.9% in summer months of 2008 compared with the same period in 2007, drainage basin runoff decreased by 33.3%, and glacial meltwater decreased by 53.8%. Change in positive accumulated air temperature explained approximately half of the inter-annual difference in glacial meltwater using a degree-day model. This suggests that the glacier is extremely sensitive to changes in air temperature. Energy balance analysis showed that change in glacier surface albedo, considered to be caused by difference in precipitation form, resulted in the large inter-annual difference in glacial meltwater. It was shown statistically that precipitation form in the summer months of 2007 was mainly rainfall which comprised 71.5% of total precipitation, while during the same period in 2008 rainfall accounted for 30.7%, with the majority of precipitation falling as snow. Precipitation form should be considered an independent factor when analyzing glacier sensitivity to climate change or forecasting the runoff from certain glaciers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluation of changes in dry-wet climate is crucial in the context of global climate change to ensure regional water resources, ecosystem stability, and socio-economic development. Long-term daily meteorological data, including temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine duration, and air pressure data from 1680 stations across mainland China from 1971 to 2019, were collected to investigate the temporal and spatial variations in aridity index (AI), precipitation (P), reference evapotranspiration (ET0), and the underlying driving climatic factors. Results indicated that the Northwest, Northeast, and Huang-Huai regions were undergoing significant wetting processes, while the Southwest and Southeast China were undergoing significant drying processes. The changing AI was mainly decided by the changing trends of ET0. For most regions, ET0 has undergone significant increases. The average increasing rate over mainland China was 3.76 mm/10a. Stations with decreasing trends were mainly located in the Tibet Plateau, Huang-Huai, and northern Northeast China. Trends in ET0 were negatively affected by the increasing changes in relative humidity and positively affected by the decreasing changes in wind speed and sunshine duration and the increasing changes in air temperature. Wind speed and relative humidity were found to be the main dominant factors driving the changes in ET0, and their contribution varied with regions. Huang-Huai and northern Northeast China showed a significant downward trend in ET0, mainly driven by the decrease in wind speed, while the increase in relative humidity was the primary contributor to the significant upward trends in ET0 across all other regions in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding future dry and wet changes under global climate change is of great regional significance in China. Based on six Global Climate Models (GCM) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), we project the changes of dry‐wet climate regions in China in the 21st century under the three SSP‐RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway‐representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5), and further identify the key climatic factors that lead to the transition of dry‐wet climate regions. The results show the area of humid and subhumid regions in China will show an upward trend in the future, while the area of semiarid and arid regions will show a downward trend. Especially under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario, the area of the subhumid region has the largest increase trend (0.042% per year), and the area of the arid region has the largest decline trend (−0.048% per year). The three main transfer directions of dry‐wet climate regions are from arid to semiarid regions, from semiarid to subhumid regions, and from subhumid to humid regions in the future. Due to the future extensive wetting trend in the north, the future dry‐wet climate regions will shift to wetter types in Tibet, North China, the Qinling‐Huaihe regions and the northeast. In addition, the key climatic factors for the transition of dry‐wet climate regions are mainly precipitation, maximum temperature and solar radiation. The increase of precipitation plays a dominant role for areas projected to change to wetter types, and the increase of potential evapotranspiration (PET) plays a dominant role for areas projected to change to drier types. The PET changes in changed areas of dry‐wet climate regions are mainly dominated by maximum temperature and solar radiation. Our research has important implications for future water resource management and reconsideration of climate mitigation and adaptation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether or not large-scale vegetation restoration will lead to a decrease in regional terrestrial water storage is a controversial topic. This study employed the Geodetector model, in conjunction with observed and satellite hydro-meteorological data, to detect the changes in terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) and to identify the contributions of climate change and vegetation greening across China during the years 1982–2019. The results revealed that: (1) during the period of 1982–2019, TWSA showed a downward trend in about two thirds of the country, with significant declines in North China, southeast Tibet, and northwest Xinjiang, and an upward trend in the remaining third of the country, with significant increases mainly in the Qaidam Basin, the Yangtze River, and the Songhua River; (2) the positive correlation between normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and TWSA accounts for 48.64% of the total vegetation area across China. In addition, the response of vegetation greenness lags behind the TWSA and precipitation, and the lag time was shorter in arid and semi-arid regions dominated by grasslands, and longer in relatively humid regions dominated by forests and savannas; (3) furthermore, TWSAs decreased with the increase in NDVI and evapotranspiration (ET) in arid and semi-arid areas, and increased with the rise in NDVI and ET in the humid regions. The Geodetector model was used to detect the effects of climate, vegetation, and human factors on TWSA. It is worth mentioning that NDVI, precipitation, and ET were some of the main factors affecting TWSA. Therefore, it is essential to implement rational ecological engineering to mitigate climate change's negative effects and maintain water resources' sustainability in arid and semi-arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Nyang River is located in an area sensitive to global climate change, the climate warming changes and human activities have impacted the fragile ecosystem of Plateau Rivers, for which we analyzed the bacterial diversity, community structure characteristics and main influencing factors in the surface sediments of 7 sampling sites in the middle and lower of the Nyang River in Tibet which is in China by high-throughput sequencing technology. The study showed that the abundance of bacterial community in the surface sediments of the middle and lower reaches of the Nyang River that is S1 (upstream of the junction of Bahe Town), S2 (Bahe River), S3 (downstream of the junction of Bahe Town), S4 (upstream of Duobu Hydropower Station), S5 (downstream of Duobu Hydropower Station), S6 (upstream of Bayi Town), S7 (downstream of Bayi Town). The abundance of bacterial community and bacterial diversity at S2 site are relatively high, and the bacterial diversity and abundance of the 7 sampling sites are lower than those of other areas. Five dominant bacteria phyla, including Firmicutes, Proteobacteria, Cyanobacteria, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and seven dominant bacteria genera, including Exiguobacterium, Hymenobacter, Hyphomicrobium, Leptolyngbya_FYG, Phormidesmis_ANT. L52.6, Tychonema_CCAP_1459-11B were extracted from the surface sediments of the middle and lower reaches of the Nyang River in the dry season. There were significant differences in the dominant bacteria among the samples. Further study found that the influencing factors were flow velocity, environmental factors and nutrients in descending order. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and rain-use efficiency (RUE) are important indicators in assessing the response of ecosystems to climate change. In this paper, the Changtang Plateau in the Tibetan Autonomous Region was selected as the study area to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of ANPP and RUE in grassland communities and their response to climate change. The results showed the following:(1) The spatial pattern of ANPP was closely related to rainfall on the Changtang Plateau. The average ANPP over the past 15 years increased gradually from the arid west to the humid east. A consistent pattern was exhibited in different grassland types and climate zones. (2) The RUE was higher at the east and west edges of the Changtang Plateau, especially in the arid west, but was lower in the center. From the perspective of different climatic zones, the average RUE in the southern Tibetan semiarid climate zone and the Ngari arid climate zone was significantly higher than that in other climate zones. However, the average RUE in different grassland types only varied from 0.07 to 0.09 g·m−2·mm−1. The spatial variation in RUE was more distinct in different climatic zones than in different grassland types. (3) Climate change influenced the interannual variation of ANPP and RUE, but the response of ANPP to rainfall showed a significant lag. The interannual change in RUE was negatively correlated with changes in precipitation. (4) In general, a greater area showed a significant increase rather than a decrease in ANPP on the Changtang Plateau, which meant that the grassland condition is improving. The temporal variation patterns of ANPP and RUE in different climate zones were consistent with the overall patterns on the Changtang Plateau, while the variation was not significant in different grassland types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land evaporation (LET) is an important variable in climate change, water cycle and water resources management. Mastering the projected changes in LET is significant for crop water requirements and the energy cycle. The global climate model (GCM) is a vital tool for future climate change research. However, the GCMs have low spatial resolution and relatively high errors. We use a deep learning (DL)-based model to deal with this problem. The DL approach can downscale the model data and merge simultaneously. We applied the DL approach to a suit of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6th edition (CMIP6) LET data. From the result of all the evaluation metrics, the DL merged data greatly improved in both spatial and time dimensions. The mean RMSE is 5.85 mm and the correlation is 0.95 between the DL merged data and reference data (historical reliable evaporation data). The future LET evidently increases in four scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5), and the upward intensity rises from the low to high emission scenarios. The highest increasing regions are in the Tibet Plateau and the south of China and the trend is larger than 10 mm/decade in the high scenarios. From the seasonal point of view, the increasing trend in spring and summer is far larger than for autumn and winter. The Tibet Plateau and the northeast of China have the largest upward trend in the spring of SSP5–8.5, higher than 1.6 mm/decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Long-term high-resolution climate proxies are essential for understanding climate variability on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where few long-term climate records are available. In this paper, we describe a summer (August) temperature reconstruction over the period 1385–2002 based on a tree-ring width chronology of Balfour spruce (Picea likiangensis var. balfouriana) on the southeastern TP created using the Regional Curve Standardization method. The reconstruction explains 44.7% of the variance in the instrumental temperature records during the calibration period (1962–2002), and captures temperature variability over a broad region of the TP. Warmer than average Augusts were found during the periods 1446–1494, 1509–1522, 1553–1567, 1797–1812, 1845–1905 and 1918–2002. Cooler than average Augusts occurred from 1385–1416, 1426–1445, 1495–1508, 1523–1552, 1568–1686, 1695–1718, 1725–1796, 1813–1844 and 1906–1917. A warming trend in the 20th century was unprecedented during the past six centuries. The reconstruction closely matched other tree-ring summer temperature reconstructions from neighboring regions, as well as patterns from ice-core δ18O data, and fluctuated in synchrony with Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article examines the effect of climate change on runoff from a cold Glacier in Tibet. Runoff from cold glaciers involves no temporal storage in cold glacier ice, but does manifest refreezing of meltwater. The paper applies a numerical mass-balance model to data recorded in the the Tanggula Mountains during the 1990s. Figures show meltwater freezing plays a nontrivial role in glacial runoff, and that studies treating meltwater and runoff water as equivalent err in doing so. Also, decreased precipitation increases glacial runoff.

Due to various land cover changes, vegetation dynamics, and climate, drought is the most complex climate-related disaster problem in Tibet and Xinjiang, China. The purpose of the present study is to analyze the performance of the AVHRR Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the temporal and spatial differences of seasonal vegetation dynamics by correlating the results with rainfall and temperature data of NASA's MERRA to examine the vegetation dynamics and droughts in Tibet and the Xinjiang Province of China. Our method is based on the use of AVHRR NDVI data and NASA MERRA temperature and precipitation during 1983–2016. Due to the dryness and low vegetation, NDVI is more useful to describe the drought conditions in Tibet and Xinjiang of China. The NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, VCI, TVDI, and NAP from April to October increased rapidly. While the NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, NAP, TVDI, and VCI are stable every month in September, again improve in October, and then confirm downward trend in December. The NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, NAP, VCI, and TVDI monthly values indicate that Tibet and Xinjiang province of China suffered from severe drought in 2006, 2008, and 2012 which were the most drought years. For monitoring drought in Tibet and Xinjiang province of China, the NDVI, TVDI, NAP, VCI, and NVSWI values were selected as a tool for reporting drought events during different growing seasons. Seasonal values of TVDI, NDVI, NAP, NVSWI, and VCI confirmed that Tibet and Xinjiang province of China suffered from severe drought in 2006, 2008, and 2012 and led the durations of severe drought. The correlation between NDVI, TCI, VHI, NAP, TVDI, and VCI showed a significantly positive correlation, while the significantly negative correlation between NVSWI and NDVI showed a good indication for the assessment of drought, especially for the agricultural regions of Tibet and Xinjiang province of China. This shows that the positive sign to support NAP, NVSWI, and TVDI is good monitoring of the drought indexes in Tibet and the Xinjiang province of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important factors influencing hydrologic and climatic quantities, and increases in ETo are often considered as a primary cause for drying under global warming scenarios. Based on bias‐corrected data from the Half a degree Additional Warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) experiment, we investigated changes in ETo and drying across the Yellow River Basin (YRB) for 1.5°C and 2°C stabilized warming, relative to the current decade (2006–2015). We used changes in the climatic water deficit (WD: defined as precipitation (P) minus (ETo) to determine drying and wetting trends. Results projected that mean annual ETo would increase significantly over the whole YRB, under 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios, with an increase of 4.54% (1.57–7.59% full uncertainty range) and 7.66% (4.49–10.61%), at 1.5°C and 2°C, respectively, averaged over the YRB for the multi‐model mean. It is unclear whether the YRB source region (the NE region of the Tibet Plateau) would be drier or wetter under 1.5°C and 2°C of warming, although it is likely that the N regions of the YRB, and the whole YRB except for the source region will be drier under 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios, respectively. With an additional 0.5°C warming, further intensification of drying is projected in the whole YRB, resulting from a more pronounced increase in ETo, and lesser increase/decrease in P. The increased ETo projected under a 0.5°C additional warming was mainly attributed to rising maximum temperatures (tasmax). These results highlight the importance of ETo, in terms of potential future YRB drying, and our study suggests that limiting future warming to 1.5°C would impact regional drying the least. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the most significant causes of species range shift and extinction. Based on a citizen science dataset of birds in China, the Bird Report, we developed a high-resolution map of bird species richness in China, and simulated the range shifts and area changes of the 1,042 birds through the year 2070 using three different General Circulation Models and two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, including RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). It was found that 241–244 (under different scenarios) bird species would lose a portion of their distribution ranges; and that most species in China would move to either higher elevations or northward. The other 798–801 species would experience range expansion. Compared to resident species (n = 516), migratory birds (n = 526) may undergo more limited range expansion but a longer range shift distance on average. The species diversity of birds will considerably increase in areas higher than 1,500 m in elevation under both RCPs. Conservation priorities with higher species richness were also identified using the Zonation model. The existing national nature reserves are not sufficient for protecting important bird habitats, especially after range shifts. Significant gaps in protected areas were observed in the northern Xinjiang, southern Tibet, Greater Khingan, Sanjiang Plain, Songnen Plain, northern Bohai Rim, and southeastern coastline areas. Many of these areas are characterized by high human populations and intensive development, and establishing sizable protected areas has become difficult. Inclusive conservation mechanisms that include restoring habitats in urban parks and sharing habitats in farmland areas, may be a feasible solution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The selection of general circulation models (GCMs) with high capability to represent the past and likely future climate for a specific geographical location is a crucial step to assess impacts of climate change on different sectors. This study included pool of 105 and 78 GCMs for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5, applied an advanced envelope‐based selection approach to select representative GCMs for the Koshi river basin in China and Nepal at short‐term (2016–2045), mid‐century (2036–2065) and end‐of‐century (2071–2100) periods, and developed range of possible future precipitation and temperature scenarios with high resolution downscaled data (10 × 10 km2), which is the novelty contribution of the study. Considering RCP4.5, average annual precipitation is expected to increase by 0–16%, 4–23% and 4–24% in the short‐term, mid‐century and end‐of‐century periods, respectively. Using RCP8.5, equivalent predictions are 6–20%, 6–36% and 13–49% in the short‐term, mid‐century and end‐of‐century periods, respectively. Average annual temperature is expected to increase, but with higher increases during winter than in the monsoon period. Considering RCP4.5, average annual temperature is expected to increase by 1–1.4°C, 1.3–1.9°C and 1.6–2.8°C in the short‐term, mid‐century and end‐of‐century periods, respectively. Similarly, using RCP8.5, equivalent predictions are 1–1.6°C, 1.8–2.9°C and 3.1–5.6°C in the short‐term, mid‐century and end‐of‐century periods, respectively. The ensemble mean of absolute change in average precipitation and temperature projects that High Himalaya and Tibet regions are more sensitive to climate change considering precipitation and temperature, respectively. The results also suggest that GCMs selection for a catchment varies with climate scenarios and specific future time periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961–2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of −6°C and −4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961–2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991–2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil carbon dioxide (CO2) emission is one of the largest fluxes in the global carbon cycle. Therefore small changes in the size of this flux can have a large effect on atmospheric CO2 concentrations and potentially constitute a powerful positive feedback to the climate system. Soil CO2 fluxes in the alpine steppe ecosystem of Northern Tibet and their responses to short-term experimental warming were investigated during the growing season in 2011. The results showed that the total soil CO2 emission fluxes during the entire growing season were 55.82 and 104.31 g C m-2 for the control and warming plots, respectively. Thus, the soil CO2 emission fluxes increased 86.86% with the air temperature increasing 3.74°C. Moreover, the temperature sensitivity coefficient (Q10) of the control and warming plots were 2.10 and 1.41, respectively. The soil temperature and soil moisture could partially explain the temporal variations of soil CO2 fluxes. The relationship between the temporal variation of soil CO2 fluxes and the soil temperature can be described by exponential equation. These results suggest that warming significantly promoted soil CO2 emission in the alpine steppe ecosystem of Northern Tibet and indicate that this alpine ecosystem is very vulnerable to climate change. In addition, soil temperature and soil moisture are the key factors that controls soil organic matter decomposition and soil CO2 emission, but temperature sensitivity significantly decreases due to the rise in temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbes play key roles in various biogeochemical processes, including carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling. However, changes of microbial community at the functional gene level by livestock grazing, which is a global land-use activity, remain unclear. Here we use a functional gene array, GeoChip 4.0, to examine the effects of free livestock grazing on the microbial community at an experimental site of Tibet, a region known to be very sensitive to anthropogenic perturbation and global warming. Our results showed that grazing changed microbial community functional structure, in addition to aboveground vegetation and soil geochemical properties. Further statistical tests showed that microbial community functional structures were closely correlated with environmental variables, and variations in microbial community functional structures were mainly controlled by aboveground vegetation, soil C/N ratio, and NH4+-N. In-depth examination of N cycling genes showed that abundances of N mineralization and nitrification genes were increased at grazed sites, but denitrification and N-reduction genes were decreased, suggesting that functional potentials of relevant bioprocesses were changed. Meanwhile, abundances of genes involved in methane cycling, C fixation, and degradation were decreased, which might be caused by vegetation removal and hence decrease in litter accumulation at grazed sites. In contrast, abundances of virulence, stress, and antibiotics resistance genes were increased because of the presence of livestock. In conclusion, these results indicated that soil microbial community functional structure was very sensitive to the impact of livestock grazing and revealed microbial functional potentials in regulating soil N and C cycling, supporting the necessity to include microbial components in evaluating the consequence of land-use and/or climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research presents an evaluation of glacier recession and glacial-lake expansion in the Rongxer basin in the Mount Qomolangma National Reserve of central Himalaya. Changes in glacier and glacial-lake surface areas in the Reserve between 1975, 1992 and 2005 have been estimated using remote sensing and GIS techniques that have integrated field data from 2009, 1:50,000 scale topographic maps, ASTER satellite data from 2009, and Landsat MSS/TM images in 1975, 1992 and 2005. By 2005, the glacier surface area had declined from 596.52 to 451.58 km with a total area loss of 144.94 km, and glacial lakes had increased from 3.55 to 7.87 km, an increase of 121.69 %. The volume of glaciers was reduced by 69.99 km from 1975 to 2005. The observed changes in the extent of glaciers are in line with the observed atmospheric warming in the Rongxer basin. Records from the Tingri station and Nyalam station have revealed warming during the ablation season since the 1970s at a rate of 0.03-0.04 °C a in the northern and central Rongxer basin. At higher elevations in the study area, represented by the Tingri and Nyalam meteorological stations, the summer warming was accompanied by negative anomalies in annual precipitation since the 1970s, likely enhancing glacier retreat and glacial lake expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau is the youngest and highest plateau on Earth, and its elevation reaches one-third of the height of the troposphere, with profound dynamic and thermal effects on atmospheric circulation and climate. The uplift of the Tibetan Plateau was an important factor of global climate change during the late Cenozoic and strongly influenced the development of the Asian monsoon system. However, there have been heated debates about the history and process of Tibetan Plateau uplift, especially the paleo-altimetry in different geological ages. Here we report a well-preserved skeleton of a 4.6 million-y-old three-toed horse (Hipparion zandaense) from the Zanda Basin, southwestern Tibet. Morphological features indicate that H. zandaense was a cursorial horse that lived in alpine steppe habitats. Because this open landscape would be situated above the timberline on the steep southern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, the elevation of the Zanda Basin at 4.6 Ma was estimated to be ~4,000 m above sea level using an adjustment to the paleo-temperature in the middle Pliocene, as well as comparison with modern vegetation vertical zones. Thus, we conclude that the southwestern Tibetan Plateau achieved the present-day elevation in the mid-Pliocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that climate change alters abiotic factors (temperature and water availability) that directly affect ecosystem properties. However, less is known about the indirect impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and function. Here, we show that experimental warming may deteriorate ecosystems via trophic interactions. In a Tibetan alpine meadow, plant species composition, size, coverage and above-ground biomass were investigated to reveal the effect of artificial warming ( c. 1 °C mean annual temperature at the soil surface), which was accomplished using warmed and ambient open top chambers. In addition, rodent damage to plants was assessed. The dicot forb silverweed Potentilla anserina increased significantly, while other species groups remained unchanged or decreased in plant community dominance rank after 2 years of artificial warming. The change in community structure was attributed to the difference in biomass allocation and growth form among species. In the third year, plateau zokors Myospalax fontanierii, a widespread rodent herbivore, damaged plants in the warmed chambers, while leaving plants in the ambient chambers mostly undamaged. Above-ground biomass was found to be smaller in the warmed chambers than the controls in the third year, in contrast to the trend of the first 2 years. In addition, zokor burrow density was positively correlated with silverweed biomass and its dominance within communities, which was consistent with findings of independent field investigations that silverweed-dominated plots were more likely to be visited and damaged by the zokors than sites-dominated by grass species. Synthesis and applications. The top-down negative effect of zokor damage on above-ground biomass in the warmed chambers was induced by the bottom-up effect of changes in species composition and community structure on zokor foraging behaviour, which were driven by artificial warming. Such trophic interactions may invalidate some predictions of ecological effects by current species-climate envelope models. Furthermore, because management measures including increasing the water table, planting grass and moderate cattle grazing may prevent silverweed dominance, we suggest that these interventions could be employed to control zokor damage in alpine meadows that are predicted to be drier and warmer in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological mismatches due to climate change may have important ecological consequences. In a three-year study, phenological shifts due to experimental warming markedly altered trophic relationships between plants and insect herbivores, causing a dramatic decline of reproductive capacity for one of the plant species. In a Tibetan meadow, the gentian (Gentiana formosa) typically flowers after the peak larva density of a noctuid moth (Melanchra pisi) that primarily feeds on a dominant forb (anemone, Anemone trullifolia var. linearis). However, artificial warming of ~1.5°C advanced gentian flower phenology and anemone vegetative phenology by a week, but delayed moth larvae emergence by two weeks. The warming increased larval density 10-fold, but decreased anemone density by 30%. The phenological and density shifts under warmed conditions resulted in the insect larvae feeding substantially on the gentian flowers and ovules; there was ~100-fold more damage in warmed than in unwarmed chambers. This radically increased trophic connection reduced gentian plant reproduction and likely contributed to its reduced abundance in the warmed chambers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Premise of the study: Little is known about the effect of environmental conditions on seed dormancy break at the community level or how it could be affected by climate change. This study tested the effects of storage conditions on germination of 489 species from high-elevation natural grasslands on the Tibet Plateau. • Methods: We stored seeds in dry cold, dry warm, and wet cold environments to test the effect of these conditions on germination. Germination responses were classified with the use of cluster analysis. The effect of phylogeny on germination response to storage conditions was determined. • Key results: Compared with results of wet cold conditions, storing seeds at dry warm or dry cold conditions decreased the mean community germination percentage by 17.93% and 16.07%, respectively. Storing seeds at dry warm vs. dry cold conditions decreased the community mean germination percentage by 4.61%. The germination response to moisture conditions during storage showed significant phylogenetic patterns, whereas the germination response to storage temperature did not. On the basis of the germinability of seeds of the same species stored under different conditions, germination may increase, decrease, or stay the same. • Conclusions: Within the high-elevation Tibetan grassland community, the different responses in dormancy breaking and germination behavior to the same storage conditions may have implications for understanding how this community might respond to climate change, in particular, some species may increase in the community, whereas others may decrease or remain the same. However, the potential for such change can be detected only by studying the responses of many species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau and the adjacent high mountain regions of the Himalayas play an important role in the global climate dynamic through its impact on the Asian monsoon system, which in turn is impacting the water resources of this extremely vulnerable region. To provide further knowledge about the changing impact of rainfall patterns, spatial and temporal variability of snow cover contribution, amount of snow and ice melt runoff, evapotranspiration as well as dynamics of wetlands and permafrost water balance studies are required. This is of particular importance in terms of global climate change because of a severe gap in the knowledge of the short, mid and long term implications on the hydrological system. This study concentrates on the macroscale catchment of the lake Nam Co, located at 4718ma.s.l. at the foot of the Nyainqentanglha Mountains in central Tibet (30° N, 90° E). The water balance of the Nam Co basin is dominated by semi-arid climate, snow and ice melt runoff and high evaporation rates due to the high radiation input and the low air humidity. The observed temperature rise, glacier retreat, permafrost decay and lake level increase indicate significant system changes and the high sensitivity of the Tibetan Plateau on global warming. The development of a suitable water balance model and its preliminary application was the main objective of this study. The development was done with the Jena Adaptable Modelling System JAMS along with existing scientific process components of the J2000 module library which were partly further developed to reflect the specific conditions of the high elevation Nam Co basin. The preliminary modelling exercise based on gridded data from a downscaled ECHAM5 data set provided reasonable estimates about the important hydrological water balance components of the Nam Co basin. With the modelling results the observed lake level rise could be reproduced and it could be shown that the runoff from the glaciered areas seems to be the most important component to explain the increasing amount of lake water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both the Chinese government and the Tibetans are in agreement over the impending issues relating to the adverse impact of climate change on Tibet while the India-specific data on glacier melt is as yet inconclusive. There is, however, a difference of perception in Sino-Tibetan discourse over the capitalist model of economic development being undertaken by China which is at variance with the cultural practices of Tibetans, informed and regulated as they are with the Buddhist values of oneness with nature. Nomadism is also fundamental to the preservation of the ecology of Tibet. The Chinese policy of encouraging non-Tibetan influx of population, greater than the sustainable carrying capacity of Tibet, is enhancing the danger of an ecological meltdown. Due to ecological interconnectedness and interdependence, the article argues that Tibet, the water tower of Asia, should be preserved as a regional if not a global common for the sake of south Asian security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the remote sensing and meteorological data collected from the 1981–2004 period, we calculated the alpine grassland Net Primary Productivity (NPP) in Northern Tibet using the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA), and subsequently analyzed the trend of grassland NPP changes and its response to climate change from 1981 to 2004. The results show that alpine grassland NPP in Northern Tibet was very low in the last 24 years with a relatively large yearly variation. Most of the grassland area (88.61%) in Northern Tibet did not show a significant annual NPP change. The area with a significant decrease of annual NPP variation accounted for only 11.30% of the total grasslands surface, whereas that with a significant increase accounted for 0.09%. In recent years, the precipitation variation in Northern Tibet resulted in an increase of grassland NPP, though solar radiation resulted in decreased grassland NPP. During the 1981–2004 period, total solar radiation, precipitation and temperature, with a decreasing impact magnitude factor, have impacted the grassland NPP in Northern Tibet. The impact of regional climate change on grassland NPP was overall more detrimental than positive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The height of mountain ranges reflects the balance between tectonic rock uplift, crustal strength and surface denudation. Tectonic deformation and surface denudation are interdependent, however, and feedback mechanisms—in particular, the potential link to climate—are subjects of intense debate. Spatial variations in fluvial denudation rate caused by precipitation gradients are known to provide first-order controls on mountain range width, crustal deformation rates and rock uplift. Moreover, limits to crustal strength are thought to constrain the maximum elevation of large continental plateaus, such as those in Tibet and the central Andes. There are indications that the general height of mountain ranges is also directly influenced by the extent of glaciation through an efficient denudation mechanism known as the glacial buzzsaw. Here we use a global analysis of topography and show that variations in maximum mountain height correlate closely with climate-controlled gradients in snowline altitude for many high mountain ranges across orogenic ages and tectonic styles. With the aid of a numerical model, we further demonstrate how a combination of erosional destruction of topography above the snowline by glacier-sliding and commensurate isostatic landscape uplift caused by erosional unloading can explain observations of maximum mountain height by driving elevations towards an altitude window just below the snowline. The model thereby self-consistently produces the hypsometric signature of the glacial buzzsaw, and suggests that differences in the height of mountain ranges mainly reflect variations in local climate rather than tectonic forces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate change in Tibet has induced complex water resource and geo-environmental changes. Tibet is located in a unique geographical zone with the characteristics of middle-low latitude, high altitude and very low average air temperature, and the climate there has been changed both in time and in space under the effect of global warming. Except for two regions without data, the changes of both air temperature and rainfall in the last 35 years in Tibet exhibit evident zonational patterns. In general, air temperature increases higher from east to west, whereas rainfall changes from decrease to increase from south to north. Except for some areas in southern Tibet, the general increase of rainfall accelerated the rate of water cycle, and caused an increase in the gross amount of water resources in Tibet. Moreover, under the impact of climate change, the frequency of occurrence of landslide and debris flow has slightly increased in the high mountain–canyon regions of eastern Tibet. Also, the debris flow due to ice lake outburst has evidently increased in the plateau mountain–lake basin regions of southern Tibet. By contrast, desertification in the western plateau–lake basin regions of northern Tibet has been intensified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The history of late Holocene glacier fluctuations in eastern Tibet was studied by determining the ages of trees growing on glacier deposits. Maximum tree ages yield minimum ages of AD 1760 and 1780 for moraine formation at the maximum extent of the 'Little Ice Age' glacier advances in two glacier forefields. Subsequent moraines could be dated to the beginning of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century. Larch trees from a third glacier forefield in southeastern Tibet show evidence of glacier activity from 1580 to 1590, from the end of the eighteenth to the beginning of the nineteenth century and from 1860 to 1880. One glacier at Mt Gyalaperi recently advanced in both 1951 and 1987. Periods of glacier advances can partly be correlated with periods of growth reductions in chronologies of total ring width and maximum latewood density derived from trees growing on slopes above the glacier valleys. Correlation functions with meteorological data suggest that maximum latewood density of subalpine Picea balfouriana, Larix griffithii and Abies delavayi var. motouensis is positively correlated with summer temperature, while ring width of these species and of subalpine Juniperus tibetica is also sensitive to winter conditions prior to the growing season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]