Search

Freight distribution with electric vehicles (EVs) is a promising alternative to reduce the carbon footprint associated with city logistics. Algorithms for planning routes for EVs should take into account their relatively short driving range and the effects of traffic congestion on the battery consumption. This paper proposes new methodology and illustrates how it can be applied to solve an electric vehicle routing problem with stochastic and time-dependent travel times where battery recharging along routes is not allowed. First, a new method for generating network-consistent (correlated in time and space) and time-dependent speed scenarios is introduced. Second, a new technique for applying branch and price on instances defined on real street networks is developed. Computational experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach for finding optimal or near-optimal solutions in instances with up to 133 customers and almost 1,500 road links. With a high probability, the routes in the obtained solutions can be performed by EVs without requiring intermediate recharging stops. An execution time control policy to further reduce the chances of stranded EVs is also presented. In addition, we measure the cost of independence, which is the impact on solution feasibility when travel times are assumed statistically independent. Last, we give directions on how to extend the proposed framework to handle recourse actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many practical applications in control require that constraints on the inputs and states of the system are respected, while some performance criterion is optimized. In the presence of model uncertainties or disturbances, it is often sufficient to satisfy the state constraints for at least a prescribed share of the time, such as in building climate control or load mitigation for wind turbines. For such systems, this paper presents a new method of Scenario-Based Model Predictive Control (SCMPC). The basic idea is to optimize the control inputs over a finite horizon, subject to robust constraint satisfaction under a finite number of random scenarios of the uncertainty and/or disturbances. Previous SCMPC approaches have suffered from a substantial gap between the rate of constraint violations specified in the optimal control problem and that actually observed in closed-loop operation of the controlled system. This paper identifies the two theoretical explanations for this gap. First, accounting for the special structure of the optimal control problem leads to a substantial reduction of the problem dimension. Second, the probabilistic constraints have to be interpreted as average-in-time, rather than pointwise-in-time. Based on these insights, a novel SCMPC method can be devised for general linear systems with additive and multiplicative disturbances, for which the number of scenarios is significantly reduced. The presented method retains the essential advantages of the general SCMPC approach, namely a low computational complexity and the ability to handle arbitrary probability distributions. Moreover, the computational complexity can be adjusted by a sample-and-remove strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vehicle Routing under Uncertainty In the paper, "The Distributionally Robust Chance Constrained Vehicle Routing Problem," Ghosal and Wiesemann examine when the popular two-index vehicle flow formulation can be used to solve a distributionally robust variant of the capacitated vehicle routing problem when only certain moments of the probability distribution governing the uncertain customer demands are available. In contrast to much of the existing literature, their framework does not require knowledge of the precise probability distribution underlying the customer demands, and it does not require the customer demands to be independent either. They also develop efficient cut generation schemes for several popular classes of moment ambiguity sets that allow the distributionally robust vehicle routing problem to be solved in times that are comparable to the deterministic formulation. We study a variant of the capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP), which asks for the cost-optimal delivery of a single product to geographically dispersed customers through a fleet of capacity-constrained vehicles. Contrary to the classical CVRP, which assumes that the customer demands are deterministic, we model the demands as a random vector whose distribution is only known to belong to an ambiguity set. We then require the delivery schedule to be feasible with a probability of at least 1 − ε, where ε characterizes the risk tolerance of the decision maker. We argue that the emerging distributionally robust CVRP can be solved efficiently with standard branch-and-cut algorithms whenever the ambiguity set satisfies a subadditivity condition. We then show that this subadditivity condition holds for a large class of moment ambiguity sets. We derive efficient cut generation schemes for ambiguity sets that specify the support as well as (bounds on) the first and second moments of the customer demands. Our numerical results indicate that the distributionally robust CVRP has favorable scaling properties and can often be solved in runtimes comparable to those of the deterministic CVRP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecast uncertainties pose a considerable challenge to the success of model predictive control (MPC) in buildings. Numerous possibilities for considering forecast uncertainties in MPCs are available, but an in-depth comparison is lacking. This paper compares two main approaches to consider uncertainties: robust and stochastic MPC. They are benchmarked against a deterministic MPC and an MPC with perfect forecast. The MPCs utilize a holistic building model to reflect modern smart homes that include photovoltaic power generation and storage, thermally controlled loads, and smart appliances. Real-world data are used to identify the thermal building model. The performance of the various controllers is investigated under three levels of uncertainty for two building models with different envelope performance. For the highly insulated building, the deterministic MPC achieves satisfactory thermal comfort when the forecast error is medium or low, but the thermal comfort is compromised for high forecast errors. In the poorly insulated building, thermal comfort is compromised at medium and high forecast errors. Compared to the deterministic MPC, the robust MPC increases the electricity cost by up to 4.5% and provides complete temperature constraint satisfaction while the stochastic MPC increases the electricity cost by less than 1% and fulfills the thermal comfort requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid development of microgrids (MGs) with various prosumers promotes the accommodation of renewable distributed generation (RDG) and provides platforms for local energy sharing among prosumers. However, the operational uncertainties pose enormous challenges to the day-ahead bidding of MGs in the wholesale electricity market and there is an urgent need for a local market to facilitate the local energy sharing. Thus, this paper proposes a risk-averse day-ahead bidding strategy for MGs with full consideration of the multiple uncertainties originating from the wholesale electricity market, RDG and loads. Based on the transactive energy (TE) sharing concept, the local market is formulated as a Stackelberg game (SG) to effectively capture the strategic interaction among the MG and prosumers, where a distributed iterative algorithm with a bisection approach that only requires exchanging TE-related information is adopted to achieve the SG equilibrium without compromising privacy concerns. To handle the uncertainties of RDG and loads, the power balances are formulated as chance constraints and a data-driven quantile forecasting method is developed for achieving the computational tractability of chance constraints without any prior knowledge or probability distribution assumptions. Furthermore, a risk criterion of the conditional value-at-risk is incorporated in the day-ahead bidding model of MGs for risk aversion towards uncertainties of the wholesale electricity market. The effectiveness of the proposed solution is extensively demonstrated through numerical simulation. • A risk-averse day-ahead bidding strategy of TE sharing MGs is presented. • A SG-based local TE market with privacy protection is developed. • The wholesale market uncertainties are addressed in a risk-averse manner via CVaR. • The power balance chance constraints are built to handle RDG and load uncertainties. • A data-driven quantile forecasting method is proposed to solve chance constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probabilistic constraints represent a major model of stochastic optimization. A possible approach for solving probabilistically constrained optimization problems consists in applying nonlinear programming methods. To do so, one has to provide sufficiently precise approximations for values and gradients of probability functions. For linear probabilistic constraints under Gaussian distribution this can be done successfully by analytically reducing these values and gradients to values of Gaussian distribution functions and computing the latter, for instance, by Genz's code. For nonlinear models one may fall back on the spherical-radial decomposition of Gaussian random vectors and apply, for instance, Deák's sampling scheme for the uniform distribution on the sphere in order to compute values of corresponding probability functions. The present paper demonstrates how the same sampling scheme can be used to simultaneously compute gradients of these probability functions. More precisely, we prove a formula representing these gradients in the Gaussian case as a certain integral over the sphere again. The result is also extended to alternative distributions with an emphasis on the multivariate Student's (or t-) distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers a distributionally robust version of a quadratic knapsack problem. In this model, a subsets of items is selected to maximizes the total profit while requiring that a set of knapsack constraints be satisfied with high probability. In contrast to the stochastic programming version of this problem, we assume that only part of the information on random data is known, i.e., the first and second moment of the random variables, their joint support, and possibly an independence assumption. As for the binary constraints, special interest is given to the corresponding semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxation. While in the case that the model only has a single knapsack constraint we present an SDP reformulation for this relaxation, the case of multiple knapsack constraints is more challenging. Instead, two tractable methods are presented for providing upper and lower bounds (with its associated conservative solution) on the SDP relaxation. An extensive computational study is given to illustrate the tightness of these bounds and the value of the proposed distributionally robust approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to formulate the reliability optimization problem in stochastic and interval domain and also to solve the same under different stochastic set up. Design/methodology/approach – Stochastic programming technique has been used to convert the chance constraints into deterministic form and the corresponding problem is transformed to mixed-integer constrained optimization problem with interval objective. Then the reduced problem has been converted to unconstrained optimization problem with interval objective by Big-M penalty technique. The resulting problem has been solved by advanced real coded genetic algorithm with interval fitness, tournament selection, intermediate crossover and one-neighbourhood mutation. Findings – A new optimization technique has been developed in stochastic domain and the concept of interval valued parameters has been integrated with the stochastic setup so as to increase the applicability of the resultant solution to the interval valued nonlinear optimization problems. Practical implications – The concept of probability distribution with interval valued parameters has been introduced. This concept will motivate the researchers to carry out the research in this new direction. Originality/value – The application of genetic algorithm is extended to solve the reliability optimization problem in stochastic and interval domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider a finite-horizon stochastic mixed-integer program involving dynamic decisions under a constraint on the overall performance or reliability of the system. We formulate this problem as a multistage (dynamic) chance-constrained program, whose deterministic equivalent is a large-scale mixed-integer program. We study the structure of the formulation and develop a branch-and-cut method for its solution. We illustrate the efficacy of the proposed model and method on a dynamic inventory control problem with stochastic demand in which a specific service level must be met over the entire planning horizon. We compare our dynamic model with a static chance-constrained model, a dynamic risk-averse optimization model, a robust optimization model, and a pseudo-dynamic approach and show that significant cost savings can be achieved at high service levels using our model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scenario-based optimization approach ("scenario approach" ) provides an intuitive way of approximating the solution to chance-constrained optimization programs, based on finding the optimal solution under a finite number of sampled outcomes of the uncertainty ("scenarios"). A key merit of this approach is that it neither requires explicit knowledge of the uncertainty set, as in robust optimization, nor of its probability distribution, as in stochastic optimization. The scenario approach is also computationally efficient because it only requires the solution to a convex optimization program, even if the original chance-constrained problem is nonconvex. Recent research has obtained a rigorous foundation for the scenario approach, by establishing a direct link between the number of scenarios and bounds on the constraint violation probability. These bounds are tight in the general case of an uncertain optimization problem with a single chance constraint. This paper shows that the bounds can be improved in situations where the chance constraints have a limited "support rank," meaning that they leave a linear subspace unconstrained. Moreover, it shows that also a combination of multiple chance constraints, each with individual probability level, is admissible. As a consequence of these results, the number of scenarios can be reduced from that prescribed by the existing theory for problems with the indicated structural property. This leads to an improvement in the objective value and a reduction in the computational complexity of the scenario approach. The proposed extensions have many practical applications, in particular, high-dimensional problems such as multistage uncertain decision problems or design problems of large-scale systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the model predictive control of dynamic systems subject to stochastic uncertainties due to parametric uncertainties and exogenous disturbance. The effects of uncertainties are quantified using generalised polynomial chaos expansions with an additive Gaussian random process as the exogenous disturbance. With Gaussian approximation of the resulting solution trajectory of a stochastic differential equation using generalised polynomial chaos expansion, convex finite-horizon model predictive control problems are solved that are amenable to online computation of a stochastically robust control policy over the time horizon. Using generalised polynomial chaos expansions combined with convex relaxation methods, the probabilistic constraints are replaced by convex deterministic constraints that approximate the probabilistic violations. This approach to chance-constrained model predictive control provides an explicit way to handle a stochastic system model in the presence of both model uncertainty and exogenous disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this paper, a recently developed stochastic programming technique that includes reliability constraints is used to solve the operations optimization problem of the Parambikulam-Aliyar project (PAP), a multireservoir system in India. The use of reliability constraints as chance constraints in reservoir operations optimization have been around for some time, but is still a challenging problem because either the results are not good or they cannot be applied in problems with more than one or two reservoirs when such techniques depend on discretization. The new implementation of chance constraints based on a previous model extended to multireservoir systems provides better results than so far known. This work is easy to apply because it requires only a standard nonlinear programming solver. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many real life situations the linear cost function does not approximate the actual cost incurred adequately. The cost of traveling between the units selected in the sample within a stratum is significant, instead of linear cost function. In this paper, we have considered the problem of finding a compromise allocation for a multivariate stratified sample survey with a significant travel cost within strata is formulated as a problem of non-linear stochastic programming with multiple objective functions. The compromise solutions are obtained through Chebyshev approximation technique,D1- distance and goal programming. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the computational details of the proposed methods. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this paper, we focus on stochastic two-level integer programming problems with cooperative decision makers. Using the fractile criterion optimization model in chance constrained programming, the formulated stochastic two-level integer programming problems are transformed into deterministic ones. Taking into account vagueness of judgments of the decision makers, we present an interactive fuzzy programming method to derive a satisfactory solution through interactions with the upper-level decision maker in consideration of the cooperative relation to the lower-level decision maker. For solving transformed deterministic problems efficiently, we also introduce genetic algorithms with double strings for nonlinear integer programming problems. An illustrative numerical example is provided to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a new finite-horizon H ∞ control problem is considered for a class of time-varying systems with stochastic nonlinearities, measurements degradation and chance constraints. The purpose of the addressed problem is to design the time-varying controller such that the closed-loop system satisfies the prespecified H ∞ disturbance attenuation requirement and certain chance constraints on the controlled output vector z k (i.e., the probability of the controlled output z k belonging to a given set is larger than a prescribed value). A modified maximum-volume-inscribed-ellipsoid (MVIE) method is employed to convert the chance constraint into some tractable inequalities, which could be conveniently handled by the recursive linear matrix inequality (RLMI) approach. Then, by using stochastic control analysis method, sufficient conditions are derived for the existence of the desired multi-objective controller and, furthermore, the gains of the desired controllers are characterized by means of RLMIs. Finally, two illustrative examples and a practical system are proposed to highlight the effectiveness and applicability of the presented controller design technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a scenario-based method to solve the chance-constrained optimization for the nonconvex program. The sample complexity is first developed to guarantee the probabilistic feasibility. Then through the sampling on uncertain parameters, many scenarios are generated to form a large-scale deterministic approximation for the original chance-constrained program. Solving the resulting scenario-based nonconvex optimization is usually time-consuming. To overcome this challenge, we propose a sequential approach to find the global optimum more efficiently. Moreover, two novel schemes: branching-and-sampling and branching-and-discarding are developed for the chance-constrained 0–1 program by refining the scenario set in order to find a less conservative solution. Finally, model predictive control and process scheduling problem are taken as examples to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed optimization approaches. • A scenario-based approach is presented for nonconvex chance-constrained programs. • A sequential method is proposed to solve nonconvex programs to a global optimum. • A branching-and-sampling method is proposed for 0–1 chance-constrained programs. • The branching-and-discarding method is proposed for 0–1 chance-constrained programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Techno-economic analysis of battery storage systems providing frequency control. • A stochastic, data-driven optimisation algorithm to optimise the battery controller. • Use of frequency data and detailed, yet computationally efficient battery models. • Case study of Germany shows the highest margins for a battery rated at 1.6 MW/1.6 MWh. • Calendar ageing drives battery degradation, while cycle ageing has less impact. Optimal investment in battery energy storage systems, taking into account degradation, sizing and control, is crucial for the deployment of battery storage, of which providing frequency control is one of the major applications. In this paper, we present a holistic, data-driven framework to determine the optimal investment, size and controller of a battery storage system providing frequency control. We optimised the controller towards minimum degradation and electricity costs over its lifetime, while ensuring the delivery of frequency control services compliant with regulatory requirements. We adopted a detailed battery model, considering the dynamics and degradation when exposed to actual frequency data. Further, we used a stochastic optimisation objective while constraining the probability on unavailability to deliver the frequency control service. Through a thorough analysis, we were able to decrease the amount of data needed and thereby decrease the execution time while keeping the approximation error within limits. Using the proposed framework, we performed a techno-economic analysis of a battery providing 1 MW capacity in the German primary frequency control market. Results showed that a battery rated at 1.6 MW, 1.6 MWh has the highest net present value, yet this configuration is only profitable if costs are low enough or in case future frequency control prices do not decline too much. It transpires that calendar ageing drives battery degradation, whereas cycle ageing has less impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Optimal Bayesian experiment design for parameter inference in constrained nonlinear systems. • Using surrogate models based on arbitrary polynomial chaos for efficient sample-based computation of the expected utility function. • Chance constrained handling in Bayesian experiment design. The optimal design of experiments is crucial for maximizing the information content of data across a wide-range of experimental goals. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to optimal experiment design (OED) for parameter inference in constrained, dynamic, and nonlinear systems under noisy, incomplete, and indirect measurements. Bayesian OED maximizes an expected utility objective, which accounts for prior and posterior uncertainty in the model parameters from an information-theoretic standpoint. Due to the complicated form of the expected utility, it must be estimated using sample-based methods and, in particular, a nested Monte Carlo estimator that is expensive to evaluate using the full dynamic model. We propose a novel surrogate model based on arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC), which readily applies to any type of prior distribution. The aPC expansions are constructed locally at each design visited during the iterative optimization procedure. The main cost in aPC, which is the determination of the expansion coefficients, is minimized by estimating these coefficients from only a minimal set of dynamic model evaluations. Although sample-based estimators can also be applied to the chance constraints, this leads to a potentially large number of binary variables, such that a smooth moment-based approximation is preferred in this work. Numerical simulations indicate that the proposed surrogate can significantly lower the computational cost of the Bayesian OED, while guaranteeing the original chance constraints are satisfied without noticeably increasing the average time to find a solution. As such, this methodology appears to have the potential to pave the way for real-time or sequential dynamic experiment design in a fully Bayesian setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • A novel data-driven approach is proposed for stochastic model predictive control. • Support vector clustering is adopted to learn an uncertainty set from scenarios. • A calibration procedure is developed to provide desirable probabilistic guarantees. • Finally, an uncertainty set-induced robust optimization problem is solved. • The proposed method requires less scenarios and can reduce conservatism. Abstract Stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) has been a promising solution to complex control problems under uncertain disturbances. However, traditional SMPC approaches either require exact knowledge of probabilistic distributions, or rely on massive scenarios that are generated to represent uncertainties. In this paper, a novel scenario-based SMPC approach is proposed by actively learning a data-driven uncertainty set from available data with machine learning techniques. A systematical procedure is then proposed to further calibrate the uncertainty set, which gives appropriate probabilistic guarantee. The resulting data-driven uncertainty set is more compact than traditional norm-based sets, and can help reducing conservatism of control actions. Meanwhile, the proposed method requires less data samples than traditional scenario-based SMPC approaches, thereby enhancing the practicability of SMPC. Finally the optimal control problem is cast as a single-stage robust optimization problem, which can be solved efficiently by deriving the robust counterpart problem. The feasibility and stability issue is also discussed in detail. The efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a two-mass-spring system and a building energy control problem under uncertain disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The study proposes an advanced control structure in 3 layers aiming the optimal efficiency energy management for Grid-Connected Hybrid Power Plant. • The control structure is based on a Stochastic Model Predictive Control and an optimal finite-state machine to take into account disturbances variations. • Disturbance estimation techniques based on of NAR Neural Networks are applied to have prediction of renewable sources. • The studied control method is compared, through simulation, to a deterministic MPC approach to illustrate an improved performance. Abstract This study presents a complete advanced control structure aimed at the optimal and most efficient energy management for a Grid-Connected Hybrid Power plant. This control scheme is composed of process supervision and process control layers, and it is a possible technology to enable improvements in the energy consumption of industrial systems subject to constraints and process demands. The proposed structure consists of the combination of a Model-Based Predictive Controller, formulated within the Chance Constraints framework to deal with stochastic disturbances (renewable sources, as solar irradiance), an optimal finite-state machine decision system and the use of disturbance estimation techniques for the prediction of renewable sources. The predictive controller uses feedforward compensation of estimated future disturbances, obtained by the use of Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Neural Networks with time delays. The proposed controller aims to perform the management of which energy system to use and to decide where to store energy between multiple storage options. This has to be done while always maximizing the use of renewable energy and optimizing energy generation due to contract rules (maintain maximal economic profit). The proposed method is applied to a case study of energy generation in a sugar cane power plant, with non-dispatchable renewable sources (such as photovoltaic and wind power generation), as well as dispatchable sources (as biomass and biogas). This hybrid power system is subject to operational constraints, as to produce steam in different pressures, sustain internal demands and, imperiously, produce and maintain an amount of electric power throughout each month, defined by strict contract rules with a local Distribution Network Operator (DNO). This paper aims to justify the use of this novel approach to optimal energy generation in hybrid microgrids through simulation, illustrating the performance improvement for different cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robotic systems need to be able to plan control actions that are robust to the inherent uncertainty in the real world. This uncertainty arises due to uncertain state estimation, disturbances, and modeling errors, as well as stochastic mode transitions such as component failures. Chance-constrained control takes into account uncertainty to ensure that the probability of failure, due to collision with obstacles, for example, is below a given threshold. In this paper, we present a novel method for chance-constrained predictive stochastic control of dynamic systems. The method approximates the distribution of the system state using a finite number of particles. By expressing these particles in terms of the control variables, we are able to approximate the original stochastic control problem as a deterministic one; furthermore, the approximation becomes exact as the number of particles tends to infinity. This method applies to arbitrary noise distributions, and for systems with linear or jump Markov linear dynamics, we show that the approximate problem can be solved using efficient mixed-integer linear-programming techniques. We also introduce an important weighting extension that enables the method to deal with low-probability mode transitions such as failures. We demonstrate in simulation that the new method is able to control an aircraft in turbulence and can control a ground vehicle while being robust to brake failures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider optimization problems under probabilistic constraints which are defined by two-sided inequalities for the underlying normally distributed random vector. As a main step for an algorithmic solution of such problems, we prove a derivative formula for (normal) probabilities of rectangles as functions of their lower or upper bounds. This formula allows to reduce the calculus of such derivatives to the calculus of (normal) probabilities of rectangles themselves thus generalizing a similar well-known statement for multivariate normal distribution functions. As an application, we consider a problem from water reservoir management. One of the outcomes of the problem solution is that the (still frequently encountered) use of simple individual probabilistic constraints can completely fail. By contrast, the (more difficult) use of joint probabilistic constraints, which heavily depends on the derivative formula mentioned before, yields very reasonable and robust solutions over the whole time horizon considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discrete approximations to chance constrained and mixed-integer two-stage stochastic programs require moderately sized scenario sets. The relevant distances of (multivariate) probability distributions for deriving quantitative stability results for such stochastic programs are ℬ-discrepancies, where the class ℬ of Borel sets depends on their structural properties. Hence, the optimal scenario reduction problem for such models is stated with respect to ℬ-discrepancies. In this paper, upper and lower bounds, and some explicit solutions for optimal scenario reduction problems are derived. In addition, we develop heuristic algorithms for determining nearly optimally reduced probability measures, discuss the case of the cell discrepancy (or Kolmogorov metric) in some detail and provide some numerical experience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims at proposing tractable algorithms to find effectively good solutions to large size chance-constrained combinatorial problems. A new robust model is introduced to deal with uncertainty in mixed-integer linear problems. It is shown to be strongly related to chance-constrained programming when considering pure 0- 1 problems. Furthermore, its tractability is highlighted. Then, an optimization algorithm is designed to provide possibly good solutions to chance-constrained combinatorial problems. This approach is numerically tested on knapsack and multi-dimensional knapsack problems. The results obtained outperform many methods based on earlier literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A distributed optimization model is proposed for the integrated electricity-natural gas networks. • The proposed model uses boundary consistency constraints to decouple the integrated networks. • P2G and gas turbines are used to deal with uncertainty risks. • P2G and gas storage tanks serve as distributed gas sources for the natural gas network. • The proposed model uses ATC to obtain a rapidly distributed solution. In recent years, the penetration of decentralized wind power generation in distribution networks has increased rapidly, and the uncertainties in wind power generation has posed great challenges on the operation of distribution networks. To this end, this paper establishes a distributed coordinated optimization model of integrated electricity-gas distribution networks considering power-to-gas (P2G) units and gas turbines to deal with the uncertainties of wind power output. First, this paper uses chance constraints to deal with the uncertainties of wind power output and converts it into a linear model that is easy to be solved. Secondly, considering the electricity distribution network and gas distribution network as different stakeholders, optimization models are established with the objectives of minimizing their respective operating costs, and the established models are solved in a distributed manner through the analytical target cascading (ATC). Finally, an integrated electricity-gas distribution system composed of the IEEE 33-node distribution network and 24-node natural gas network is used for simulation, which validate the proposed model and method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robust Optimization is a rapidly developing methodology for handling optimization problems affected by non-stochastic “uncertain-but- bounded” data perturbations. In this paper, we overview several selected topics in this popular area, specifically, (1) recent extensions of the basic concept of robust counterpart of an optimization problem with uncertain data, (2) tractability of robust counterparts, (3) links between RO and traditional chance constrained settings of problems with stochastic data, and (4) a novel generic application of the RO methodology in Robust Linear Control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, electricity generation is responsible for more than a quarter of the greenhouse gas emissions in the US. Integrating significant amounts of renewable energy sources into a power grid is probably the most accessible way to reduce carbon emissions from power grids and slow down climate change. Unfortunately, the most accessible renewable power sources, such as wind and solar, are highly intermittent and thus bring a lot of uncertainty to power grid operation and challenge existing optimization and control policies. The chance-constrained (CC) alternating current optimal power flow (AC-OPF) framework finds the minimum cost of generation dispatch, maintaining the power grid operation within security limits with a prescribed probability. Unfortunately, the AC-OPF problem's chance-constrained extension is non-convex, computationally challenging, and requires knowledge of system parameters and also needs additional assumptions to be made about the behavior of renewable generation probability distribution. Known linear and convex approximations to the above problems, though tractable, are too conservative for operational practice and do not consider uncertainty in system parameters. This paper presents an alternative data-driven approach for solving the stochastic AC-OPF problem, based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) to close this gap. The Gaussian process (GP) approach learns a simple yet non-convex data-driven approximation to the AC power flow equations that can incorporate uncertain inputs. The latter is then used to determine the solution of CC-OPF efficiently, by accounting for both input and parameter uncertainty. The practical efficiency of the proposed approach using different approximations for GP-uncertainty propagation is validated and illustrated using a number of standard IEEE test cases. • Chance constrained optimal power flow based on data-driven approach. • Gaussian process regression for solving stochastic optimal power flow. • Gaussian processes for handling uncertainties in power systems. • Machine learning for power system optimization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the problem of active fault diagnosis (AFD) is investigated for a class of linear stochastic systems subject to chance constraints, where the input signals are specifically designed to enhance diagnosis performance by discriminating between multi-fault modes. As the misdiagnosis probability cannot be expressed in the closed form, a reachable upper bound on it is derived to construct a novel input design criterion for AFD based on the Cauchy–Schwarz divergence. A sufficient condition is provided to decompose the multivariate chance constraints into a set of univariate ones. A three-stage optimization approach is proposed to solve the input design problem incorporating chance constraints for AFD. In the upper stage, the best iteration parameter is determined for subsequent iterative optimization to obtain the least conservative risk allocation scheme. In the middle stage, the total risk of violating the multivariate constraints is optimally allocated to a set of univariate ones through iterative optimization, which can improve diagnosis performance. In the lower stage, a set of univariate chance constraints is equivalently converted into expectation constraints under the allocated risk, and then the input design problem under the constructed design criterion is solved to global optimality. The optimal input signals are injected, and the AFD decision is made based on real-time measurement information according to the minimum probability of misdiagnosis decision principle. Finally, simulation results on a four-tank system demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed AFD method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uncertainties originating from electricity markets, renewable distributed generations (RDG) and multi-energy loads pose huge challenges to the optimal energy management of the integrated energy system (IES) in competitive electricity markets. This paper develops an energy management framework (EMF) with a two-stage process for IES strategic participation in electricity markets, which can coordinate the operation of IES to comply with the two-settlement mechanism of the day-ahead and real-time markets. The former stage incorporates the conditional value-at-risk to make day-ahead bidding decisions for risk aversion towards uncertainties introduced by the electricity market. The latter coordinates the day-ahead bidding electricity to implement energy dispatch of IES for real-time market participation. Furthermore, supply-demand balances are formulated into chance constraints in the day-ahead bidding while real-time energy dispatch is implemented based on rolling model predictive control in response to uncertainties due to RDG and multi-energy loads. The proposed EMF is extensively assessed through two case studies in the PJM and Guangdong electricity markets. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed EMF can effectively achieve day-ahead bidding of IES with risk aversion towards unexpected increases in operating costs caused by market uncertainties and determine the optimal operation scheme for its participation in the real-time market. • The energy management of IES for participating in electricity markets is explored. • A risk-averse day-ahead bidding strategy based on CVaR is developed for IES. • The rolling MPC is adopted for energy dispatch to participate in real-time market. • The uncertainties due to market, RDG and multi-energy loads are fully considered. • The proposed solution is assessed in the PJM and Guangdong electricity markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To avoid the problem of insufficient flexibility of the power grid along the cz railway due to source-load fluctuations, a distributionally robust optimization method considering flexibility is proposed in this paper. Firstly, Wasserstein distance is used to establish the uncertainty set of flexibility demand caused by source-load fluctuation, and a risk-cost model of insufficient flexibility is constructed to couple to the objective function. Combined with the flexibility chance constraint, the flexibility over-limit probability is limited to a certain confidence level in the fuzzy set, and a distributionally robust chance constraint optimization model based on Wasserstein distance is established. Then, the proposed model is transformed into a linear programming problem to be solved by dual theory and inner approximation transformation. Finally, a simulation study of the power grid along the CZ railway is carried out to verify the correctness and effectiveness of the model. The experimental results show that the proposed method can improve the flexibility capacity of the system without sacrificing economy.

Stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) provides a probabilistic framework for MPC of systems with stochastic uncertainty. A key feature of SMPC is the inclusion of chance constraints, which enables a systematic trade-off between attainable control performance and probability of state constraint violations in a stochastic setting. This paper presents an overview of core concepts in SMPC in relation to MPC and stochastic optimal control, with numerical illustrations on a typical chemical process. Estimation of stochastic disturbances as well as the impact of estimation quality of stochastic disturbances on the SMPC performance are discussed. Some avenues for future research in SMPC are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric energy generation from renewable energy sources is generally non-dispatchable due to its intrinsic volatility. Therefore, its integration into electricity markets and in power system operation is often based on volatility-compensating energy storage systems. Scheduling and control of this kind of coupled systems is usually based on hierarchical control and optimization. On the upper level, one solves an optimization problem to compute a dispatch schedule and a coherent allocation of energy reserves. On the lower level, one performs online adjustments of the dispatch schedule using, for example, model predictive control. In the present paper, we propose a formulation of the upper level optimization based on data-driven probabilistic forecasts of the power and energy output of the uncontrollable loads and generators dependent on renewable energy sources. Specifically, relying on probabilistic forecasts of both power and energy profiles of the uncertain demand/generation, we propose a novel framework to ensure the online feasibility of the dispatch schedule with a given security level. The efficacy of the proposed scheme is illustrated by simulations based on real household production and consumption data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainties in oil demands have significant effects on the routing and scheduling of oil tankers and inevitably influence the pertinent fleet operational expenses, shortage and excess inventory penalties, and chartering costs. In this paper, we study a stochastic maritime scheduling transportation-inventory problem to transport crude oil from a source using a set of fully loaded heterogeneous vessels to be fully unloaded at a destination over a finite time horizon. Daily demands at the destination are normally distributed random variables and different penalties are imposed on the shortages/excesses in daily storage levels at the destination. The expected total cost of such a fleet operation, consists of the total vessels’ operational expenses, expected total penalties resulting from violating specified lower and upper bounds at the destination storage facility, and chartering expenses. We aim to simultaneously optimize the fleet schedules and maintain desirable daily storage levels to meet the stochastic demand requirements at the destination with acceptable reliability levels. We formulate the problem as a stochastic optimization model and then use chance constrained programming to convert it to an exact mixed-integer nonlinear program with a convex objective function and linear constraints. Solutions obtained via the proposed stochastic model and its deterministic counterpart are compared and analyzed to gain insights into the impact of the variations in demands and the probabilities of meeting demands on the overall operation and cost structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial projects are plagued by uncertainties, often resulting in both time and cost overruns. This research introduces an innovative approach, employing Reinforcement Learning (RL), to address three distinct project management challenges within a setting of uncertain activity durations. The primary objective is to identify stable baseline schedules. The first challenge encompasses the multimode lean project management problem, wherein the goal is to maximize a project's value function while adhering to both due date and budget chance constraints. The second challenge involves the chance-constrained critical chain buffer management problem in a multimode context. Here, the aim is to minimize the project delivery date while considering resource constraints and duration-chance constraints. The third challenge revolves around striking a balance between the project value and its net present value (NPV) within a resource-constrained multimode environment. To tackle these three challenges, we devised mathematical programming models, some of which were solved optimally. Additionally, we developed competitive RL-based algorithms and verified their performance against established benchmarks. Our RL algorithms consistently generated schedules that compared favorably with the benchmarks, leading to higher project values and NPVs and shorter schedules while staying within the stakeholders' risk thresholds. The potential beneficiaries of this research are project managers and decision-makers who can use this approach to generate an efficient frontier of optimal project plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty in classical stochastic programming models is often described solely by independent random parameters, ignoring their dependence on multidimensional features. We describe a novel contextual chance-constrained programming formulation that incorporates features, and argue that solutions that do not take them into account may not be implementable. Our formulation cannot be solved exactly in most cases, and we propose a tractable and fully data-driven approximate model that relies on weighted sums of random variables. We obtain a stochastic lower bound for the optimal value and feasibility results that include convergence to the true feasible set as the number of data points increases, as well as the minimal number of data points needed to obtain a feasible solution with high probability. We illustrate our findings in a vaccine allocation problem and compare the results with a naíve sample average approximation approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider an n-player finite strategic game. The payoff vector of each player is a random vector whose distribution is not completely known. We assume that the distribution of a random payoff vector of each player belongs to a distributional uncertainty set. We define a distributionally robust chance-constrained game using worst-case chance constraint. We consider two types of distributional uncertainty sets. We show the existence of a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium of a distributionally robust chance-constrained game corresponding to both types of distributional uncertainty sets. For each case, we show a one-to-one correspondence between a Nash equilibrium of a game and a global maximum of a certain mathematical program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolving power systems with increasing levels of stochasticity call for a need to solve optimal power flow problems with large quantities of random variables. Weather forecasts, electricity prices, and shifting load patterns introduce higher levels of uncertainty and can yield optimization problems that are difficult to solve in an efficient manner. Solution methods for single chance constraints in optimal power flow problems have been considered in the literature, ensuring single constraints are satisfied with a prescribed probability; however, joint chance constraints, ensuring multiple constraints are simultaneously satisfied, have predominantly been solved via scenario-based approaches or by utilizing Boole's inequality as an upper bound. In this paper, joint chance constraints are used to solve an AC optimal power flow problem while preventing overvoltages in distribution grids under high penetrations of photovoltaic systems. A tighter version of Boole's inequality is derived and used to provide a new upper bound on the joint chance constraint, and simulation results are shown demonstrating the benefit of the proposed upper bound. The new framework allows for a less conservative and more computationally efficient solution to considering joint chance constraints, specifically regarding preventing overvoltages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To facilitate the integration of variable renewable generation and improve the resilience of electricity supply in a microgrid, this paper proposes an optimal scheduling strategy for microgrid operation considering constraints of islanding capability. A new concept, probability of successful islanding (PSI), indicating the probability that a microgrid maintains enough spinning reserve (both up and down) to meet local demand and accommodate local renewable generation after instantaneously islanding from the main grid, is developed. The PSI is formulated as mixed-integer linear program using multi-interval approximation taking into account the probability distributions of forecast errors of wind, PV and load. With the goal of minimizing the total operating cost while preserving user specified PSI, a chance-constrained optimization problem is formulated for the optimal scheduling of mirogrids and solved by mixed integer linear programming (MILP). Numerical simulations on a microgrid consisting of a wind turbine, a PV panel, a fuel cell, a micro-turbine, a diesel generator and a battery demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheduling strategy. The relationship between PSI and various factors are verified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under-Frequency Load Shedding (UFLS) schemes are the last resort to contain a frequency drop in the grid by disconnecting part of the demand. The allocation methods for selecting feeders that would contribute to the UFLS scheme have traditionally relied on the fact that electric demand followed fairly regular patterns, and could be forecast with high accuracy. However, recent integration of Distributed Generation (DG) increases the uncertainty in net consumption of feeders which, in turn, requires a reformulation of UFLS-allocation methods to account for this uncertainty. In this paper, a chance-constrained methodology for selecting feeders is proposed, with mathematical guarantees for the disconnection of the required amount of load with a certain pre-defined probability. The correlation in net-load forecasts among feeders is explicitly considered, given that uncertainty in DG power output is driven by meteorological conditions with high correlation across the network. Furthermore, this method is applicable either to systems with conventional UFLS schemes (where relays measure local frequency and trip if this magnitude falls below a certain threshold), or adaptive UFLS schemes (where relays are triggered by control signals sent in the few instants following a contingency). Relevant case studies demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, and the need for explicit consideration of uncertainty in the UFLS-allocation process. • A chance-constrained methodology for selecting feeders contributing towards UFLS is proposed. • Uncertainty and correlation driven by Distributed Generation are explicitly considered. • A distributionally-robust option is given, requiring minimal information on uncertainty. • The method applies to several communication requirements for the operation of the power system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model predictive control (MPC) heavily relies on the accuracy of the system model. Nevertheless, process models naturally contain random parameters. To derive a reliable solution, it is necessary to design a stochastic MPC. This work studies the chance constrained MPC of systems described by parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs) with random parameters. Inequality constraints on time- and space-dependent state variables are defined in terms of chance constraints. Using a discretization scheme, the resulting high-dimensional chance constrained optimization problem is solved by our recently developed inner–outer approximation which renders the problem computationally amenable. The proposed MPC scheme automatically generates probability tubes significantly simplifying the derivation of feasible solutions. We demonstrate the viability and versatility of the approach through a case study of tumor hyperthermia cancer treatment control, where the randomness arises from the thermal conductivity coefficient characterizing heat flux in human tissue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study a generalized distributionally robust chance-constrained set covering problem (DRC) with a Wasserstein ambiguity set, where both decisions and uncertainty are binary-valued. We establish the NP-hardness of DRC and recast it as a two-stage stochastic program, which facilitates decomposition algorithms. Furthermore, we derive two families of valid inequalities. The first family targets the hypograph of a "shifted" submodular function, which is associated with each scenario of the two-stage reformulation. We show that the valid inequalities give a complete description of the convex hull of the hypograph. The second family mixes inequalities across multiple scenarios and gains further strength via lifting. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the out-of-sample performance of the DRC model and the effectiveness of our proposed reformulation and valid inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A chance-constrained DCOPF with non-parametric correlated probabilistic forecasts of DLR and wind power. • The model co-optimizes energy and reserves with typical risk aversion levels of TSOs. • Assuming a normal distribution overestimates the probabilistic forecasts of DLR. • DLR reduces wind power curtailment and dispatch costs in highly congested networks. Compared to Seasonal Line Rating (SLR), Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) allows for higher power flows on overhead transmission lines, depending on the actual weather conditions. Nevertheless, the potential of DLR has to be traded off against the additional uncertainty associated with varying ratings. This paper proposes a DC-Optimal Power Flow (DCOPF) algorithm that accounts for DLR uncertainty by means of Chance-Constraints (CC). The goal is to determine the optimal day-ahead dispatch taking the cost of reserve procurement into account. The key contribution of this paper consists in considering both non-parametric predictive distributions of DLR and the combined wind power uncertainty in the optimization problem. Our results highlight the benefits of DLR in wind-dominated power systems, assuming typical risk aversion levels in the line rating estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the problem of generation expansion planning (GEP) under uncertainty. Existing and planned deployment of demand response mechanisms necessitates extensions of GEP optimization models to minimize planned investment portfolio cost. We propose a combination of service level threshold and chance constraints to abstractly capture the impact of demand response mechanisms in generation expansion planning. We examine the computational properties of solutions from the proposed optimization model using real-world data from South Korea. Our results indicate that the proposed models can be solved to optimality in tractable run-times, allowing for their use in decision support contexts and avoiding the need for heuristic solution procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A heterogeneous wireless sensor network attacked by jamming is analyzed as a two-player non-cooperative game chance constrained problem, the utility function is based on the signal interference plus noise ratio at the receiver. In view of the problem's stochasticity, second order cone programming is used to solve the game problem. Our preliminary numerical results show that the communication distance between network elements must be taken into account at the time of establishing the design requirements of any reliable application against jamming attacks. Furthermore, it is established that the receiver's sensitivity level is a central parameter for changing the frequency used for the power transmission initially selected by the nodes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A novel data-driven surrogate is developed for chance constraint reformulation. • Wind curtailment dispatch is explicitly modeled in chance constraints. • A correction strategy is proposed to ensure modeling accuracy. • The proposed approach is effective under arbitrary distribution assumptions. Chance-constrained optimization (CCO) has been widely used for uncertainty management in power system operation. With the prevalence of wind energy, it becomes necessary to consider wind curtailment as a dispatch variable in CCO. However, the wind curtailment will cause an impulse for the uncertainty distribution, yielding challenges for explicit modeling of chance constraint. In this paper, a novel data-driven framework is developed to handle this issue. By modeling the wind curtailment as a cap enforced on the wind power output, the proposed framework constructs a data-driven surrogate to describe the relationship between wind curtailment and the tightening boundary of chance constraints. This allows us to reformulate the CCO with wind curtailment as a mixed-integer second-order cone programming (MI-SOCP) problem. An error correction strategy is developed by solving a convex linear programming (LP) to improve the modeling accuracy. The notable characteristic of the proposed method is that the chance constraints with wind curtailment can be explicitly and accurately handled without any distribution assumptions, which provides great convenience for the power dispatch under a high percentage of renewables. Case studies performed on the PJM 5-bus and IEEE 118-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method is capable of accurately accounting the influence of wind curtailment dispatch in CCO. It shows that the proposed method outperforms existing methods by producing more economic and secure solutions for the chance-constrained energy and reserve scheduling problem under uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chance constraints are suitable for industrial process modeling under uncertain conditions, where constraints cannot be strictly satisfied or do not need to be fully satisfied. In this paper, a single machine scheduling problem involving flexible maintenance, production, and uncertainty is modeled as a chance constrained dynamic optimization problem (CCDOP). A novel method is proposed for transforming the CCDOP into an equivalent deterministic dynamic optimization problem (DOP) with fixed state jump times. Furthermore, by using the idea of l 1 penalty function and a smooth approximation technique, the resulting deterministic DOP becomes a smoothing penalty problem, which is a non-convex nonlinear parameter optimization problem (NNPOP) with simple bounds on the variables. To solve the NNPOP, a gradient-based stochastic search algorithm (GSSA) is developed based on a gradient-based adaptive search algorithm (GASA) and a novel stochastic search algorithm (NSSA). The convergence analysis result shows that the GSSA is a globally convergent algorithm. Finally, two numerical examples are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Numerical results show that the GSSA has excellent convergence behavior with robust computation feature, providing better results compared with the other typical methods. • A CCDOA is developed for the single machine scheduling problem. • Propose a novel technique to transform the CCDOP into an equivalent CDPOP. • Design a GASA, which is effective for ill-conditioned problems. • Design a NSSA, in which no parameters tuning is required. • Propose a GSSA for the NNPOP and comparison results imply its superiority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]