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This study asks the question on which national “shoulders” the world’s top-level research stands. Traditionally, the number of citations to national papers has been the evaluative measures of national scientific standings. We raise a different question: instead of analyzing the citations to a countries’ articles (the forward view), we examine references to prior publications from specific countries cited in the most elite publications (the backward—citing—view). “Elite publications” are operationalized as the top-1% most-highly cited articles. Using the articles published from 2004 to 2013, we examine the research referenced in these works. Our results confirm the well-known fact that China has emerged to become a major player in science. However, China still belongs to the low contributors when countries are ranked as contributors to the cited references in top-1% articles. Using this perspective, the results do not support a decreasing trend for the USA; in fact, the USA exceeds expectations (compared to its publication share) in terms of references in the top-1% articles. Switzerland, Sweden, and the Netherlands also appear at the top of the list. However, the results for Germany are lower than statistically expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Setting: Research capacity is weakest in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) where operational research is highly relevant and needed. Structured Operational Research and Training Initiative (SORT IT) courses have been developed to train participants to conduct and publish operational research and influence policy and practice. Twenty courses were completed in Asia, Africa, Europe and the South Pacific between 2009 and 2014. Objectives: In the 20 completed SORT IT courses, to assess where the research was conducted, who was trained, who became facilitators in subsequent courses and course outcomes. Design: A cohort study of completed SORT IT courses Results: There were 236 participants (41% female) including 64 nationalities who conducted research in 59 countries, mostly from Asia and Africa (mean course duration = 9.7 months). Most participants (68%) were from government health programs and non-governmental agencies. A total of 213(90%) participants completed all milestones successfully with 41(19%) becoming subsequent course facilitators, 88% of whom were from LMICs. Of 228 manuscripts submitted to scientific journals, 197(86%) were either published or in press; in 86%, the principal investigator (first author) was a LMIC national. Papers were published in 23 scientific journals (impact factor 0.5–4.4) and covered 21 disease categories (median publication time = 5.7 months). Published papers (186) had 94,794 cumulative article views/downloads. Article views/downloads for immediate open access articles were double those from closed access journals. Conclusion: The SORT IT model has been effective in training personnel to produce relevant operational research in LMICs. It merits continued commitment and support for further scale-up and development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm, called Exogenous Fitness, to calculate the Fitness of subnational entities and we apply it to the states of Brazil. In the last decade, several indices were introduced to measure the competitiveness of countries by looking at the complexity of their export basket. Tacchella et al (2012) developed a non-monetary metric called Fitness. In this paper, after an overview about Brazil as a whole and the comparison with the other BRIC countries, we introduce a new methodology based on the Fitness algorithm, called Exogenous Fitness. Combining the results with the Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPp), we look at the dynamics of the Brazilian states in the Fitness-Income plane. Two regimes are distinguishable: one with high predictability and the other with low predictability, showing a deep analogy with the heterogeneous dynamics of the World countries. Furthermore, we compare the ranking of the Brazilian states according to the Exogenous Fitness with the ranking obtained through two other techniques, namely Endogenous Fitness and Economic Complexity Index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The input-output table is very comprehensive and detailed in describing the national economic systems with abundant economic relationships, which contain supply and demand information among various industrial sectors. The complex network, a theory, and method for measuring the structure of a complex system can depict the structural characteristics of the internal structure of the researched object by measuring the structural indicators of the social and economic systems, revealing the complex relationships between the inner hierarchies and the external economic functions. In this paper, functions of industrial sectors on the global value chain are to be distinguished with bipartite graph theory, and inter-sector competitive relationships are to be extracted through resource allocation process. Furthermore, quantitative analysis indices will be proposed under the perspective of a complex network, which will be used to bring about simulations on the variation tendencies of economies’ status in different situations of commercial intercourses. Finally, a new econophysics analytical framework of international trade is to be established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As of November 1, 2018, China's "One Belt and One Road" Initiative has involved 123 countries and promoted worldwide communication, cooperation and trade exchange. This paper constructs correlation networks of exchange rates among the countries along “The Belt and Road” and analyzes the risk contagion structure. It is found that when “The Belt and Road” initiative is initialized, countries in Eastern Europe occupy important positions in the network and play a vital role in the spreading of exchange rate risks; however, during the process of “The Belt and Road” initiative, the exchange rate risks are decentralized geographically, whereas they are centralized in countries that have in-depth communication and cooperation. The minimum Spanning Tree method is also proposed to investigate the structure of complex networks. It is found that the geographical link between exchange rate fluctuations and correlations among the countries has been strengthened while China has become an important node in the exchange rate network after the launch of “The Belt and Road” initiative. In addition, the influence and promotion of RMB has rapidly benefited from the initiative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Doha Development Agenda recognizes the central role that international trade can play in the promotion of economic development. In fact, the increase of exports from developing countries to developed nations' markets has been considered a key element for developing countries to realize the potential benefits of globalization. Over the last decades, developed countries have provided preferential access to their markets to developing countries through nonreciprocal trade agreements. Moreover, developing countries have also participated in reciprocal trade agreements. This paper re-examines comparatively the effect of both kinds of trade agreements on exports from developing countries but also from the developed world. In line with other studies, our results across specifications are unstable. However, the results of our preferred specification give additional support to the argument raised by critics of nonreciprocal preference regimes who consider that developing countries should abandon their reliance on one-way trade preferences in favor of reciprocal agreements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Authorship is the currency of an academic career for which the number of papers researchers publish demonstrates creativity, productivity, and impact. To discourage coercive authorship practices and inflated publication records, journals require authors to affirm and detail their intellectual contributions but this strategy has been unsuccessful as authorship lists continue to grow. Here, we surveyed close to 6000 of the top cited authors in all science categories with a list of 25 research activities that we adapted from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) authorship guidelines. Responses varied widely from individuals in the same discipline, same level of experience, and same geographic region. Most researchers agreed with the NIH criteria and grant authorship to individuals who draft the manuscript, analyze and interpret data, and propose ideas. However, thousands of the researchers also value supervision and contributing comments to the manuscript, whereas the NIH recommends discounting these activities when attributing authorship. People value the minutiae of research beyond writing and data reduction: researchers in the humanities value it less than those in pure and applied sciences; individuals from Far East Asia and Middle East and Northern Africa value these activities more than anglophones and northern Europeans. While developing national and international collaborations, researchers must recognize differences in peoples values while assigning authorship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Forensic odontology (FO) is regarded in the literature as one of the most reliable and economical scientific methods for victim identification in mass disasters (MDs). The present paper systematically reviews the role of forensic odontologists in various global MDs. Method: A comprehensive search of the literature databases (PubMed, Medline, SCOPUS, Web of Science and Google Scholar), along with cross-referencing published peer-reviewed articles, was conducted. The search included full texts, abstracts or titles, had no inclusion year limit (searched until September 2017) and was limited to the English language. Keywords included a combination of ‘Forensic odontology’, ‘Dental records’, ‘Victim identification’, ‘Natural mass disaster’, ‘Criminal mass disaster’, ‘Accidental mass disaster’ and ‘Victim disaster’. Results: Of the included disasters (20), 12 (57.14%) were accidental, 5 (23.80%) natural and 3 (19.04%) were criminal. The maximum number of victims was associated with the Japan tsunami (15892), followed by the Thailand tsunami (4280) and the Estonia ferry disaster (852). A total of 23654 victims were reported, of which 20569 (86.96%) were positively identified. Reports from 17 MDs included the use of FO in victim identification [3025 (14.70%) cases]. In addition, 1094 victims (5.31%; from 7 papers) were identified using FO in combination with other methodologies. The highest percentage of victims was identified using FO following the Kentucky air crash (47; 100%), followed by the Newark air crash (38; 76%), the Nepal air crash (10; 71.42%), the France air crash (56; 65.88%), the Australian bushfire (14; 63.63%), and the Estonia ferry disaster (57; 60.63%). Conclusion: FO has played a significant role in victim identification in several MDs around the world. The success of FO-based identification is heavily dependent on the availability of ante-mortem records from general dental practitioners. Hence, adequate knowledge about FO and appropriate dental record keeping among general dental practitioners are critical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous epidemiologic studies have reported famine exposure during early life association with overweight or obesity in adulthood, but a consistent perspective has not been established to date. Purpose: To determine, by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis, whether exposure to famine could increase body mass index (BMI) in adult or not, and assess the association between famine exposure and the risk of overweight or obesity. Methods: Published articles were systematically searched (until August, 2017) from PubMed, ScienceDirect, Cochrane, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure. Initially, comparing differences in BMI between exposed and non-exposed groups that weight mean difference (WMD) were used. Subsequently, the effect of famine exposure on overweight or obesity risk, which pooled relative risks (RRs), odds ratios (ORs) or hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects model. Result: Twenty studies were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Compared with non-exposed group, famine exposure group significantly increased the risk of overweight (OR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.04–1.16) and obesity (OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.05–1.24). Sensitivity analyses revealed no significant change in the famine exposure and BMI, the risk of overweight and obesity study when any one study was excluded. Subgroup analyses showed that age, gender, exposure type, study type, continent, famine cause and paper publication date were associated with BMI, the risk of overweight and obesity. Meta-regression analyses suggested that continent, famine cause could partially explain heterogeneity for famine exposure and BMI studies. Conclusion: The systematic review and meta-analysis indicates that famine exposure during early life may increase BMI, the risk of overweight and obesity, especially for female, fetal famine exposure or subject age less than 50. Furthermore, famine exposure group the risk of overweight and obesity in cross-sectional studies, Asian studies, famine cause by natural disaster or paper published from 2015 to the present studies are higher than that of non-exposed group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the cross-market effects of Brexit on the stock and bond markets of nine major countries in the world. By incorporating information theory, we introduce the time-varying impact weights based on symbolic transfer entropy to improve the traditional GARCH model. The empirical results show that under the influence of Brexit, flight-to-quality not only commonly occurs between the stocks and bonds of each country but also simultaneously occurs among different countries. We also find that the accuracy of the time-varying symbolic transfer entropy GARCH model proposed in this paper has been improved compared to the traditional GARCH model, which indicates that it has a certain practical application value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise of global value chains (GVCs) characterized by the so-called “outsourcing”, “fragmentation production”, and “trade in tasks” has been considered one of the most important phenomena for the 21st century trade. GVCs also can play a decisive role in trade policy making. However, due to the increasing complexity and sophistication of international production networks, especially in the equipment manufacturing industry, conventional trade statistics and the corresponding trade indicators may give us a distorted picture of trade. This paper applies various network analysis tools to the new GVC accounting system proposed by Koopman et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2013) in which gross exports can be decomposed into value-added terms through various routes along GVCs. This helps to divide the equipment manufacturing-related GVCs into some sub-networks with clear visualization. The empirical results of this paper significantly improve our understanding of the topology of equipment manufacturing-related GVCs as well as the interdependency of countries in these GVCs that is generally invisible from the traditional trade statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the bank lending channel, which considers how monetary authority actions affect the variation of loans. We focus on the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) totalizing 1254 banks from five countries in the period 2000–2012 (totalizing 13 years). The empirical results show that the effect of money supply growth on the growth of loans is non-linear and inverted U-shaped. In this context, our results show empirical evidence expansionary monetary policies do not increase the propensity of economic agents to systematically take greater risks on the market. After a certain level of money stock, increases in the money supply do not lead to increased negotiated credit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a rare, progressive neurodegenerative disease. There is heterogeneity of clinical phenotypes while a clinical characterization of ALS in Cyprus is still lacking. The aim of this 30-year retrospective study of ALS in Cyprus is to determine the demographic characteristics of patients, the clinical features of the disease, the uptake of supportive therapies and factors influencing survival. Methods: All ALS patients seen at the Cyprus Institute of Neurology and Genetics from January 1985 until July 2015 were included. Medical records of eligible patients were used for data extraction and compilation of an ALS database. Clinical features were compared between gender categories using univariate tests, while survival was assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify prognostic factors for survival. Results: One hundred and seventy-nine ALS patients were included in the study, of whom 7 had a positive family history. Most clinical characteristics of ALS did not differ from what is observed in other European countries. However, some clinical characteristics were unique to our population, such as an increased acceptability and utilisation of supportive treatments such as gastrostomy. Conclusions: Overall, clinical characteristics of patients with ALS in the Republic of Cyprus do not differ from other European counties. Our study demonstrates a high acceptance and utilisation of supportive interventions enhancing survival, in the context of a multidisciplinary approach offered in the single tertiary centre that services the whole Cypriot ALS population. The findings of this paper are of value to the health professionals treating ALS in Cyprus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the causality between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth is helpful for policymakers to formulate energy, environmental and economic policies. For the first time, based on nonlinear dynamics, this paper employs multispatial convergent cross mapping (CCM) to revisit the energy-carbon-economy causation for China, India and the G7 countries using both aggregate data and per capita data. The findings indicate that there are significant differences between developing countries and developed countries. A bidirectional nexus between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth is found in China and India, but various causal relationships are identified in the G7 countries, including bidirectional, unidirectional and neutral nexus. The results confirm that the decoupling phenomenon is common in most G7 countries. By leveraging a variety of samples and a new approach, this study provides new evidence for policy authorities to formulate country-specific policies to obtain better environmental quality while achieving sustainable economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do people with higher life satisfaction have more children? Having children requires considerable energy and investment on the part of parents. However, even in countries where contraceptives are easily available and widely used, where having children is optional and most of time the result of an intended action, parenthood has not gone “out of fashion”. This paper tests the hypothesis that higher life satisfaction fosters reproductive behavior. We argue that people satisfied with their overall life feel better prepared to start the monumental task of childrearing. If, it is suggested, life satisfaction facilitates fertility, then this positive link should be observable in contemporary low fertility societies. The hypothesis is tested by taking overall life satisfaction as a determinant of fertility behavior using long longitudinal data available for developed countries: namely for Australia, Germany, Russia, South Korea, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We find that higher levels of subjective well-being are, indeed, associated with a higher probability of having children in all the countries considered. We, therefore, conclude that life satisfaction favors reproduction, at least in low fertility societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Violence against women by an intimate partner (DV) is a serious public health and human rights issue. Attitudes justifying DV strongly predict its perpetration and victimisation. This paper presents gendered ecological analyses of the societal acceptance of DV in 49 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) across geographical regions. Methods and findings: We utilised data from 49 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2005 and 2017, United Nations Statistics and topic-specific meta-databases. DV acceptance was measured as the justification of ‘wife-beating’ in at least one of five circumstances, and by the summative scale. Stepwise multiple linear regression examined country-level social, economic and political empowerment predictors of societal acceptance of DV amongst women, men, and the aggregate gender difference. Women were more likely than men to justify DV in Sub-Saharan Africa and South (east) Asia with societal acceptance of DV being more widespread in these regions compared with Latin America, the Caribbean, Central/West Asia and Europe. Political conflict and limited economic rights for women were associated with higher levels of DV acceptance amongst women and men. Men in more democratic countries were less likely to justify DV. Amongst women, higher national female literacy rates predicted lower levels of justification. There were higher levels of DV acceptance amongst women and a wider aggregate gender difference in countries with a larger representation of women in national parliament. Conclusion: Justification of DV is widespread amongst women and men in LMICs with acceptance rates varying across countries and regions. Gender differences in the impact of contextual factors on DV acceptance supports a gendered approach to national-level interventions. Our findings highlight the need for tailored interventions targeting DV acceptance in conflict-impacted societies. The emphasis of inter(national) policies on the ‘empowerment’ domains of widely-used gender (in)equality indices need to be coupled with strategies tackling discriminatory gender norms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic cycles may lead to changes in corporate bond credit ratings. This paper utilizes the Markov model to describe transition probability matrixes of economic states for the separation of economic cycles. We develop a new model, which we term the Markov rating shopping dual reputation model, incorporating two reputation effects. This model is well suited to analyze the conditions of the dual rating incentive regulation and the constraint regulation for preventing rating inflation in collusion among credit rating agencies. Then, we apply the Markov regime switching-vector auto-regression (MS-VAR) to estimate the transition probability matrixes of America, England, Japan and China. Based on the numerical analysis and the simulations, the results show that a dual rating regulation can prevent the collusion of inflated ratings, as well as increased rating fees with the separation of economic cycles; additionally, when separating the economic cycles, a constraint regulation is more effective at reducing the risk of rating inflation in collusion and regulatory cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Childhood obesity rates have been rising rapidly in developing countries. A better understanding of the risk factors and social context is necessary to inform public health interventions and policies. This paper describes the validation of several measurement scales for use in Turkey, which relate to child and parent perceptions of physical activity (PA) and enablers and barriers of physical activity in the home environment. Method: The aim of this study was to assess the validity and reliability of several measurement scales in Turkey using a population sample across three socio-economic strata in the Turkish capital, Ankara. Surveys were conducted in Grade 4 children (mean age = 9.7 years for boys; 9.9 years for girls), and their parents, across 6 randomly selected schools, stratified by SES (n = 641 students, 483 parents). Construct validity of the scales was evaluated through exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. Internal consistency of scales and test-retest reliability were assessed by Cronbach’s alpha and intra-class correlation. Results: The scales as a whole were found to have acceptable-to-good model fit statistics (PA Barriers: RMSEA = 0.076, SRMR = 0.0577, AGFI = 0.901; PA Outcome Expectancies: RMSEA = 0.054, SRMR = 0.0545, AGFI = 0.916, and PA Home Environment: RMSEA = 0.038, SRMR = 0.0233, AGFI = 0.976). The PA Barriers subscales showed good internal consistency and poor to fair test-retest reliability (personal α = 0.79, ICC = 0.29, environmental α = 0.73, ICC = 0.59). The PA Outcome Expectancies subscales showed good internal consistency and test-retest reliability (negative α = 0.77, ICC = 0.56; positive α = 0.74, ICC = 0.49). Only the PA Home Environment subscale on support for PA was validated in the final confirmatory model; it showed moderate internal consistency and test-retest reliability (α = 0.61, ICC = 0.48). Discussion: This study is the first to validate measures of perceptions of physical activity and the physical activity home environment in Turkey. Our results support the originally hypothesized two-factor structures for Physical Activity Barriers and Physical Activity Outcome Expectancies. However, we found the one-factor rather than two-factor structure for Physical Activity Home Environment had the best model fit. This study provides general support for the use of these scales in Turkey in terms of validity, but test-retest reliability warrants further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to fill a gap in the literature on internationalization, in relation to the absence of objective and measurable performance indicators for the process of how firms sequentially enter external markets. To that end, this research develops a quantitative tool for use as a performance indicator of gradualness for firms entering external markets at a sectoral level. The performance indicator is based on firms’ export volumes, number of years operating in the export market, geographic areas targeted for export and when exports began to each area. The indicator is tested empirically in the wine sector. The main contribution of this study is the creation of a reliable international priority index, which can serve more widely as a valuable tool because of its potential use in other industry sectors and geographic areas, and which would allow the analysis of how geographically differentiated internationalization strategies develop. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports the dynamical analysis of the business cycles of 12 (developed and developing) countries over the last 56 years by applying computational techniques used for tackling complex systems. They reveal long-term convergence and country-level interconnections because of close contagion effects caused by bilateral networking exposure. Interconnectivity determines the magnitude of cross-border impacts. Local features and shock propagation complexity also may be true engines for local configuration of cycles. The algorithmic modeling proves to represent a solid approach to study the complex dynamics involved in the world economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The name caliver stands for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs. This is a package developed for the R programming language and available under an APACHE-2 license from a public repository. In this paper we describe the functionalities of the package and give examples using publicly available datasets. Fire danger model outputs are taken from the modeling components of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) and observed burned areas from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED). Complete documentation, including a vignette, is also available within the package. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies carried out in Moscow residents have revealed that the prevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis is very close to those in countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Our findings also demonstrated a statistically significant relationship between the rate of traffic accidents and the seroprevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis in drivers who were held responsible for accidents. The latter was 2.37 times higher in drivers who were involved in road accidents compared with control groups. These results suggest that the consequences of chronic toxoplasmosis (particularly a slower reaction time and decreased concentration) might contribute to the peculiarities of the epidemiology of road traffic accidents in the Russian Federation and might interfere with the successful implementation of the Federal Programme named “Increase road traffic safety”. Suggestions for how to address overcome this problem are discussed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species of the genus Moina Baird (Cladocera: Moinidae) often dominate freshwater crustacean communities in temporary water bodies. Several species of Moina are used as food for fish larvae in aquaculture, as bioindicators in toxicological studies, and as common subjects for physiological studies. The aim of this paper is to estimate biodiversity of Moina in northern Eurasia using the standard DNA barcoding approach based on the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene. We analysed 160 newly obtained and 157 existing COI sequences, and found evidence for 21 phylogroups of Moina, some of which were detected here for the first time. Our study confirmed the opinion that the actual species diversity of cladocerans is several times higher than is presently accepted. Our results also indicated that Moina has the second richest species diversity among the cladoceran genera (with only Daphnia O. F. Mueller having a greater diversity of species). Our study strongly supports division of Moina into two faunistic groups: European-Western Siberian and Eastern Siberian-Far Eastern, with a transitional zone at the Yenisey River basin (Eastern Siberia). Here, we refrain from taxonomic descriptions of new species, as this requires a thorough morphological and taxonomic study for each putative taxon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wild boar (Sus scrofa) are widely distributed throughout the Old World. Most studies have focused on Europe and East Asia with the genetic diversity of West Asia being less well studied. In particular, the genetic variability and genetic structure of the Iranian populations are not yet known; gaps which prevent scientists from resolving the genetic relationships of the Eurasian wild boar. This paper is the first attempt to provide information about genetic relationships among modern Iranian populations of the Eurasian wild boar (S. scrofa) by sequencing 572 bp of the mitochondrial (mt) DNA control region. As a result of this investigation, it was discovered that Iran contains not only Middle Eastern haplotypes, but also shares haplotypes with Europe and East Asia. The Italian clade, which is endemic in Italy, is not identified in Iran, while all other clades, including Asiatic, European, Near East 1, and Near East 2 are found based on the phylogenetic tree and median-joining network. The results of this study illustrate that north west of Iran (specifically Southwest Caspian Sea) is the contact zone between the Asian (Near Eastern and Far Eastern), and the European clades. In light of the fact that the domestication of pigs occurs in Anatolia, this finding is important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) is typically underestimated in routine surveillance. Updated estimates are needed following the recent WHO position paper on rubella and recent GAVI initiatives, funding rubella vaccination in eligible countries. Previous estimates considered the year 1996 and only 78 (developing) countries. Methods: We reviewed the literature to identify rubella seroprevalence studies conducted before countries introduced rubella-containing vaccination (RCV). These data and the estimated vaccination coverage in the routine schedule and mass campaigns were incorporated in mathematical models to estimate the CRS incidence in 1996 and 2000–2010 for each country, region and globally. Results: The estimated CRS decreased in the three regions (Americas, Europe and Eastern Mediterranean) which had introduced widespread RCV by 2010, reaching <2 per 100,000 live births (the Americas and Europe) and 25 (95% CI 4–61) per 100,000 live births (the Eastern Mediterranean). The estimated incidence in 2010 ranged from 90 (95% CI: 46–195) in the Western Pacific, excluding China, to 116 (95% CI: 56–235) and 121 (95% CI: 31–238) per 100,000 live births in Africa and SE Asia respectively. Highest numbers of cases were predicted in Africa (39,000, 95% CI: 18,000–80,000) and SE Asia (49,000, 95% CI: 11,000–97,000). In 2010, 105,000 (95% CI: 54,000–158,000) CRS cases were estimated globally, compared to 119,000 (95% CI: 72,000–169,000) in 1996. Conclusions: Whilst falling dramatically in the Americas, Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean after vaccination, the estimated CRS incidence remains high elsewhere. Well-conducted seroprevalence studies can help to improve the reliability of these estimates and monitor the impact of rubella vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The International Fetal and Newborn Growth Consortium for the 21st Century (INTERGROWTH-21st) Project is a population-based, longitudinal study describing early growth and development in an optimally healthy cohort of 4607 mothers and newborns. At 24 months, children are assessed for neurodevelopmental outcomes with the INTERGROWTH-21st Neurodevelopment Package. This paper describes neurodevelopment tools for preschoolers and the systematic approach leading to the development of the Package. Methods: An advisory panel shortlisted project-specific criteria (such as multi-dimensional assessments and suitability for international populations) to be fulfilled by a neurodevelopment instrument. A literature review of well-established tools for preschoolers revealed 47 candidates, none of which fulfilled all the project's criteria. A multi-dimensional assessment was, therefore, compiled using a package-based approach by: (i) categorizing desired outcomes into domains, (ii) devising domain-specific criteria for tool selection, and (iii) selecting the most appropriate measure for each domain. Results: The Package measures vision (Cardiff tests); cortical auditory processing (auditory evoked potentials to a novelty oddball paradigm); and cognition, language skills, behavior, motor skills and attention (the INTERGROWTH-21st Neurodevelopment Assessment) in 35–45 minutes. Sleep-wake patterns (actigraphy) are also assessed. Tablet-based applications with integrated quality checks and automated, wireless electroencephalography make the Package easy to administer in the field by non-specialist staff. The Package is in use in Brazil, India, Italy, Kenya and the United Kingdom. Conclusions: The INTERGROWTH-21st Neurodevelopment Package is a multi-dimensional instrument measuring early child development (ECD). Its developmental approach may be useful to those involved in large-scale ECD research and surveillance efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this article is to document and understand how trends in educational variability and the gender gap in education developed jointly over time. Main questions include: Is the education distribution among women becoming more dispersed as their average attainment surpasses that of men? Is education variability among women higher than that of men? Does the reduction–and eventual reversal–of the gender gap in education go hand-in-hand with less educational variability overall? To answer these questions we first show how overall education variability can be decomposed into four clearly interpretable components (variability among women and men, educational advantage favoring women and favoring men). We subsequently document how these components have evolved over time in the world and its regions from 1950 to 2010 (with projections until 2040). Our findings suggest that (i) with education expansion, education variability tends to follow an inverted U-shape trajectory. (ii) The composition of education variability has been shifting dramatically over time; in particular (iii) variability among men was usually higher than variability among women until the turn of the millennium, from then onwards their educational attainment distributions have the same degree of dispersion. And (iv) while in the 1950s the educational advantage of men was by far the main contributor to education variability, nowadays the educational advantage of women has become the most important source of variability in high- and middle-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mine safety assessment is a precondition for ensuring orderly and safety in production. The main purpose of this study was to prevent mine accidents more effectively by proposing a composite risk analysis model. First, the weights of the assessment indicators were determined by the revised integrated weight method, in which the objective weights were determined by a variation coefficient method and the subjective weights determined by the Delphi method. A new formula was then adopted to calculate the integrated weights based on the subjective and objective weights. Second, after the assessment indicator weights were determined, gray relational analysis was used to evaluate the safety of mine enterprises. Mine enterprise safety was ranked according to the gray relational degree, and weak links of mine safety practices identified based on gray relational analysis. Third, to validate the revised integrated weight method adopted in the process of gray relational analysis, the fuzzy evaluation method was used to the safety assessment of mine enterprises. Fourth, for first time, bow tie model was adopted to identify the causes and consequences of weak links and allow corresponding safety measures to be taken to guarantee the mine’s safe production. A case study of mine safety assessment was presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed composite risk analysis model, which can be applied to other related industries for safety evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reconcilability of actions and beliefs in inter-country relationships, either in business or politics, is of vital importance as incorrect beliefs on foreigners’ behavior can have serious implications. We study a typical inter-country interaction by means of a controlled laboratory investment game experiment in Germany, Israel and Palestine involving 400 student participants in total. An investor has to take a risky decision in a foreign country that involves transferring money to an investee/allocator. We found a notable constellation of calibrated and un-calibrated beliefs. Within each country, transfer standards exist, which investees correctly anticipate within their country. However, across countries these standards differ. By attributing the standard of their own environment to the other countries investees are remarkably bad in predicting foreign investors’ behavior. The tendency to ignore this potential difference can be a source of misinterpreting motives in cross-country interaction. Foreigners might perceive behavior as unfavorable or favorable differentiation, even though—unknown to them—investors actually treat fellow-country people and foreigners alike. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given school enrollments but in the absence of a student residence census, we present a gravity-like model to infer the residential distribution of enrolled students across various administrative units. Multi-scale analysis of the effects of aggregation across different administrative levels allows for the identification of administrative units with sub-optimally located schools and highlights the challenges in allocating resources. Using this method, we verify that the current scheme of free cross-enrollment across administrative boundaries is needed in achieving universal education in the Philippines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Germany is ethnically diverse and the social climate is more or less welcoming for different immigrant groups. The social climate can be described by stereotypes of members of the receiving society about immigrant groups, which in turn shape receiving-society members’ behavioral tendencies of support or discrimination. We investigated warmth and competence stereotypes about 17 immigrant groups in Germany. Results showed four clusters of immigrant groups in the two-dimensional space of warmth and competence. Groups who immigrated comparatively recently and from regions of conflict (e.g., the Balkans, Northern Africa) were stereotyped most negatively (moderate warmth, low competence). Across groups, path analysis investigated the socio-structural relations proposed by the stereotype content model and the BIAS map for immigrant groups in the German context. In a pre-registered model all hypothesized paths were significant but model fit was not good. Therefore, an exploratory model included additional paths as well as intercorrelations between exogenous variables and error terms. The modified model showed good fit and partly replicated the relations proposed by the BIAS map. Threat predicted warmth, whereas status predicted competence. Warmth predicted active behavioral tendencies and competence predicted passive behavioral tendencies. Additional paths from status to warmth, threat to competence, as well as from warmth to passive behavioral tendencies and competence to active behavioral tendencies were also significant. Thus, findings support receiving-society members’ active role in the process of integrating immigrant groups into German society. Based on the results, social-psychological approaches to foster immigrant integration are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from the 2015 International Social Survey Program (ISSP), this study conducts a multinational comparison of job satisfaction determinants and their drivers in 36 countries and regions, with particular attention to the reasons for relatively low job satisfaction among Chinese workers. Based on our results from a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition analysis, we attribute a substantial portion of the job satisfaction differences between China and the other countries to different job attributes and expectations; in particular, to unmet job expectations for interesting work, high pay, and opportunities for advancement. We also note that, contrary to common belief, Chinese workers value similar attributes as Western workers but perceive their work conditions as very different from those in the West. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Turkey, hypertension was responsible for 13% of total deaths in 2015. We apply existing research finding regarding the impact of a population-wide reduction in sodium consumption on the decrease of the hypertension prevalence rate among 15+ years population and the gender-age specific reduction in total death rates among 30+ years population, and compare hypertension burden, averted deaths, costs and benefits between two scenarios. Methods: The first scenario (i.e. status quo) assumes constant hypertension prevalence rate and the death rates between 2015 and 2030. Based on the Framingham Heart Study and INTERSALT Study findings on the impact of salt-reduction strategies on hypertension prevalence rate, the second scenario (Scenario II) assumes a 17% reduction in the prevalence of hypertension in Turkey in 2030, from its 2015 prevalence level. We project hypertension attributable disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2030, monetize DALYs using GDP (and income) per capita, and compare the projected economic benefits of DALYs averted and the additional costs associated with the increases in hypertension treatment through antihypertensive medications and physician consultations. Results: The estimated benefits of reducing the economic burden of hypertension deaths outweigh the cost of providing hypertension treatment. A decrease in hypertension prevalence by 17%, attributable to population-wide reduction in salt consumption, is projected to avert 24.3 thousand deaths in 2030. We projected that, compared to status quo, 392 thousand DALYs will be averted in Scenario II in 2030. The economic benefits of reduction in potential hypertension deaths are estimated to be 6.7 to 8.6 folds higher than the additional cost of hypertension treatment. Conclusion: Population-wide hypertension prevention and management is a win-win situation for public health and the Turkish health care system as the economic benefits of reducing deaths and disabilities associated with hypertension outweigh the costs significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We construct two examples of shareholder networks in which shareholders are connected if they have shares in the same company. We do this for the shareholders in Turkish companies and we compare this against the network formed from the shareholdings in Dutch companies. We analyse the properties of these two networks in terms of the different types of shareholder. We create a suitable randomised version of these networks to enable us to find significant features in our networks. For that we find the roles played by different types of shareholder in these networks, and also show how these roles differ in the two countries we study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2013, Turkey introduced one-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) at 12 months of age. Inclusion of a second dose is being considered. Methods: We developed a dynamic transmission model to evaluate three vaccination strategies: single dose at 12 months (1D) or second dose at either 18 months (2D-short) or 6 years of age (2D-long). Costs and utilization were age-stratified and separated into inpatient and outpatient costs for varicella and herpes zoster (HZ). We ran the model including and excluding HZ-related costs and impact of exogenous boosting. Results: Five years post-introduction of UVV (1D), the projected varicella incidence rate decreases from 1,674 cases pre-vaccine to 80 cases/100,000 person-years. By 25 years, varicella incidence equilibrates at 39, 12, and 16 cases/100,000 person-years for 1D, 2D-short, and 2D-long strategies, respectively, using a highly effective vaccine. With or without including exogenous boosting impact and/or HZ-related costs and health benefits, the 1D strategy is least costly, but 2-dose strategies are cost-effective considering a willingness-to-pay threshold equivalent to the gross domestic product. The model predicted a modest increase in HZ burden during the first 20–30 years, after which time HZ incidence equilibrates at a lower rate than pre-vaccine. Conclusions: Our findings support adding a second varicella vaccine dose in Turkey, as doing so is highly cost-effective across a wide range of assumptions regarding the burden associated with varicella and HZ disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To assess the extent to which foreign pharmaceutical imports vary from year to year and identifying leading generic and branded formulations, key countries and key importers of pharmaceuticals in private sector supply chain. Methodology: A systematic analysis of data for pharmaceutical imports from the Ministry of Health.Data from 2013 to 2016 fiscal years and relevant documents were accessed from the Tanzania Food and Drugs Authority (TFDA). Data cleaning was carried out to remove duplicate entries and to exclude pharmaceutical imports for individual uses, promotion purpose, donations, raw material, medical devices, government institutions and veterinary products. Results: A total of 397 different suppliers imported pharmaceutical in Tanzania mainland from 2013 to 2016 fiscal years. In the 2013–2014 fiscal year, the private sector suppliers imported pharmaceutical worth 216 U.S million dollars. India ranked as the first country for exporting highest value of pharmaceutical into the country. It displays a 54% cumulative market share of total imports from 2013–2016, followed by Egypt (11.7%), Switzerland and the USA hold 4.1% of cumulative market share. By 2020–2021 fiscal years, we forecast for imported pharmaceuticals to reach a total value of 906 U.S million dollars for the private sector supply chain. All analysis in this study and the forecasted figures are limited to private sector pharmaceutical supply chain only and does not include data for government pharmaceutical supply chain. Conclusions: Our result shows that the vast majority of pharmaceutical imports in the private sector supply chain are dominated by imports from India. India is competing with other countries such as Egypt, Switzerland, USA and South Africa among the top importing countries. There was almost an equal distribution of pharmaceutical for both communicable and non-communicable diseases. Data presented shows a growing trend for the market segment for medicines required for the management of non-communicable diseases. Generally, the private sector pharmaceutical market is keeping on rising at a rapid pace. By the year 2021, the growth is forecasted to increase by 28% compared to the current market value. The projected growth rate could be good news for foreign pharmaceutical companies seeking new sources of growth in international pharmaceutical trading. It is also good news to the poor patients if the availability of drugs previously unavailable in the country is significantly increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this work was to study the phenotypic susceptibility and resistance determinants of N. gonorrhoeae isolates to beta-lactam antimicrobials (benzylpenicillin and ceftriaxone). A total of 522 clinical isolates collected in Russia in 2015–2017 were analysed for susceptibility using the agar dilution method. DNA loci involved in antimicrobial resistance were identified using DNA microarray analysis and sequencing. Resistance to benzylpenicillin remained high, with 7.7% of isolates resistant (MICpen > 1 mg/L) and 47.5% of isolates showing intermediate susceptibility (MICpen = 0.12–1 mg/L). The most frequent resistance determinant (72.4% isolates) was the Asp345 insertion in penA, both as a single mutation and in combination with other mutations, particularly with the substitution Leu421Pro in ponA (39.0%). Mutations affecting the influx and efflux of drugs were also found, including amino acid substitutions in PorB (26.8% isolates) and delA in the promoter region of mtrR (22.8%). The accumulation of mutations in chromosomal genes (penA, pon, porA, and mtrR) led to a stepwise increase in MICpen to values characteristic of intermediate resistance. The presence of blaTEM plasmids was found in 25 isolates (4.8%), resulting in a strong increase in resistance to penicillin (MICpen > 16 mg/L) compared with the chromosomal mutations; 23 plasmids were of the African type with TEM-1 beta-lactamase, and two plasmids were of the Toronto/Rio type with TEM-135 beta-lactamase. Only three isolates were found with reduced susceptibility to ceftriaxone, with MICcef = 0.12–0.25 mg/L. Sequencing of penA did not reveal mutations associated with resistance to third-generation cephalosporins, and the gene structure was non-mosaic. The majority of isolates (21 of 25) carrying the blaTEM plasmid also contained the conjugative plasmid with tetM (resistance to tetracyclines), consistent with previously reported data that the presence of the conjugative plasmid facilitates the transfer of other plasmids associated with antimicrobial resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have seen tremendous advances in the scientific study of networks, as more and larger data sets of relationships among nodes have become available in many different fields. This has led to pathbreaking discoveries of near-universal network behavior over time, including the principle of preferential attachment and the emergence of scaling in complex networks. Missing from the set of network analysis methods to date is a measure that describes for each node how its relationship (or links) with other nodes changes from one period to the next. Conventional measures of network change for the most part show how the degrees of a node change; these are scalar comparisons. Our contribution is to use, for the first time, the cosine similarity to capture not just the change in degrees of a node but its relationship to other nodes. These are vector (or matrix)-based comparisons, rather than scalar, and we refer to them as “rewiring” coefficients. We apply this measure to three different networks over time to show the differences in the two types of measures. In general, bigger increases in our rewiring measure are associated with larger increases in network density, but this is not always the case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crises and disasters affect the numbers of people traveling either for tourism or other reasons. Many studies have been published on the effects of such events on travel, especially on tourism, and based on the arrivals or departures of travelers to or from countries. Our aim was to assess the influence of these events on the demand for pre-travel medical consultation in an International Vaccination Centre (IVC). Data on 94683 international travelers who visited 113529 international destinations attended at the IVC of Malaga (Spain) during 2000–2017 were studied. A descriptive and time series analyses was conducted. The demand to IVC was 3.47 times higher in 2017 than in 2000. The increase has not been the same for all destinations: Travel to South-East Asia and Western Pacific World Health Organization (WHO) regions has multiplied by 10, while in the same period, Africa WHO region has declined from 36% to 20% of total demand. Thailand, India and Brazil were the countries with the highest demand (21% of all pre-travel consultations). We found out three periods, concurrent with some socioeconomic or health events, in which the number of travellers attend decline with respect to the previous years, or the growth was very slow. Growth in the demand for pre-travel medical advice in parallel with a foreseeable increase in the number of travelers is expected. Pre-travel medical services must be adapted to this increase. This study of the trend of demand for pre-travel medical information should new related problems to travel to be identified and quantified, and should assist improvement of policies and programs aimed at care of travelers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]